dazed, confused

by lboros on May 4, 2006 8:31 AM EDT in St. Louis Cardinals News

april seems like a lonnng time ago, dudnit?

can't pin this one entirely on marquis; he pulled himself together and kept em within range. but a 3-0 hole is a bad place to leave any team when roy oswalt's pitching. and no matter who's on the mound, this is not a cardinal offense that can just shrug aside a 3-run deficit. don't know if it's a coincidence or not, but the hitters abruptly changed their approach at the plate after the cardinals fell behind. in the top of the first, they didn't take a single called strike -- swung at every pitch that crossed the plate. even eckstein went up there hacking, swung at the very first pitch of the game and made an out on it. maybe the game plan was to try to hurt him early in the count, jump on that fastball right away and (hopefully) force him out of his preferred pitching pattern. it didn't work, but i don't fault the idea (if that, in fact, was the idea). by the time they batted in the 2d inning the cardinals were down 3 runs and had to abandon the have-a-hack approach; the score dictated that they take some pitches, try to make oswalt work as hard as possible. the last 25 hitters to face oswalt took a total of 26 called strikes.

the astros went up there hacking against marquis, too; he threw 21 strikes in the 1st inning, and the astros swung at 18 of them. the nationals took a nearly identical approach in jason's last start: they saw 19 1st-inning strikes and swung at 16. maybe it's no coincidence that jason walked 4 men in both starts: teams know what's coming -- sinker, fastball -- and they are sitting on it. they've taken away his bread n butter; it's up to him to counteradjust. from this morning's post-disptach:

Pitching coach Dave Duncan thought Marquis' heavy use of sinkers early allowed the Astros to jump him. Marquis offered a wider assortment his last three innings and, according to Duncan, may have found a lesson. "He needs to throw his off-speed pitches for strikes. When he does, he's a much more effective pitcher," Duncan said.

now just a second -- hasn't the storyline been that marquis gets hurt when he fiddle-farts around with his 3d and 4th pitches? that if he'd stop trying to get so cute out there and just take duncan's advice to stick to fastball-sinker, all would be well? i'm confused -- which i suppose is where we inevitably end up when marquis pitches.

i think tony gets confused too. marquis was at 98 pitches after the 4th inning but was so efficient in the 5th -- eight pitches -- that la russa left him in for the top of the 6th. several times last season, during marquis' miserable losing streak, tony decided to extend jason, and it always backfired; after the 105th pitch, opposing hitters batted .395 against marquis last year. but then, the bottom of the order was up, and jason did get two quick outs . . . .

all the positives that got us excited about him in 2004 continue to fade. his strikeouts remain too low, his ratio of groundouts to flyouts continues to fall, and now his control -- the thing that redeemed him over the last month of 2005 -- is gone; he has walked 10 in his last 16.2 innings. but we're probably stuck with him; his performance, salary, and free-agent status make him a pretty unattractive trade chip right about now. nothing to do but hope that things cycle back around (they always do with this player) before too long.

the rotation suddenly looks a little threadbare; instead of an ace and four #3s, which is what it used to be, it's starting to look like an ace and four #4s (in case you missed it, by the way, mulder's got a bad back). project ahead to a postseason series: carpenter in game 1, mulder (hold breath, cross fingers) in game 2, and then . . . ? as desperately as the cards need to upgrade the outfield (speaking of which, bigbie did in fact reinjure himself the other night in memphis), i wonder if they don't need to upgrade the rotation even more. the current five will get them through 162 games, but does anybody think they're a championship group? the dontrelle rumors are out there, and i heard a crazy one lately that the twins (off to a very slow start) might just clean house, starting with johan santana's fat contract. i'll believe that when i see it . . . .

Update [2006-5-4 11:27:43 by lboros]: here's a link to the santana speculation, posted at the blog Getting Paid to Watch: "Unless scouts indicate there's something terribly irreplably flawed in Santana, or he's not healthy, look for Ryan to shop him. In a smaller market this is the manner in which the twice world champion Twins have done business over the last 20 years." the writer is a former nymets trainer . . . i post this with triple-strength caveats. it's not even a rumor; just one guy's uninformed speculation.

carp goes tonight, and they play the weakling marlins over the weekend; still an opportunity to salvage something out of this road trip.

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If the Twins are willing

to part with Johan Santana... everyone but Pujols and Carpenter should be on the block. He has been one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball over the last two years. However, if they do deal him... expect a crash of computer servers everywhere as a result of the Twins' bloggers angst.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on May 4, 2006 8:57 AM EDT reply actions

d-train

is probably untouchable for now, no matter what the rumors say. the marlins are weak, but not so weak that they'd drop him this early... right?

by gthedamned on May 4, 2006 9:00 AM EDT reply actions

bummed

man.... 3 in a row.

So many positives to take away from this game. Pujols' back looked OK in in the 7th and 9th inning. Man he hits the ball so hard! Jim Edmonds hit the ball off Lidge. I'm so glad we've broken the spell against him. Spezio banged the ball off Oswalt. Luna found his stroke. That Houston pitcher is really good, but we got to him.

We need Rolen back against the lefty tonight! Anyone know his timetable?

I hate Minute Maid. The center field hill. The cheap homeruns to left. That damn buzzing sound after any player with a b in thier names gets a hit. It makes me mute the television when the 'stros come up to bat.

Watch for the heavy righty lineup tonight.

I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 9:10 AM EDT reply actions

Oswalt

Always hurts to lose, but frankly, Oswalt v Marquis was a very favorable matchup for the Astros, and we made it close. Over 162 games, from time to time the other team's ace is going to match up with one of our inning eaters, but our turn will come. Today, with Rolen back (fingers crossed), I hope.

by madridbend on May 4, 2006 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I was at that game last night

and the buzzing sound is about 10,000 times worse there. Really, you've got to hand it to the Houston defense for a lot of that game. They made a bunch of really great plays to save hits and runs, including catching that Pujols line drive that should have at least been a double.

Additionally, from my seat, the strike zone looked pretty insane. It was hard to tell inside/outside, but the zone looked like it was moving around all day, and in the 1st, especially, it just looked horrible. More than anything, I just don't understand why Marquis pitched to Biggio. There wasn't even anyone up in the pen until Biggio got that hit. Why save Wainwright last night if you're gonna ride Marquis for 110 pitches?

by Valatan on May 4, 2006 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

All the more

reason to try and salvidge the Cincy game. I understood the logic as it played out right after the Cincy game, but now take into account what happened last night. I am now really confused,

by knieriemd on May 4, 2006 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Wainwright

After hearing about Mulder's back, do you think Adam isn't being used so that he can start in Mulder's next spot? That would make him unavailable from the bullpen, wouldn't it? Even if they don't have him penciled in yet for Mulder, maybe they are waiting for the results from Mulder's exam before they use Adam again.

by elderj on May 4, 2006 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

makes ya wonder

I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually read today

in the Post article online re: Mulder's back that Wainright would make the spot start on Saturday.

"Adam Wainwright, who has allowed a .125 opponents batting average while compiling an 0.77 ERA in eight appearances, could make an emergency start Saturday should La Russa decide to bump or skip Mulder."

by sdesserman on May 4, 2006 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel for you

I would love to go see the 'Birds play at a bunch of different parks some summer. I'll skip Houston, though.

I'd rather drink bleach then hear the Killer Bees buzz.

I really like them as players, though. Biggio, Berkman, Bagwell, even when Beltran was banging them out in 2004, I respected those guys. Good people.

Way to ruin a good thing with your loudspeakers.

I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

And I've generally had a pretty good experience

with their fans, particularly the 60 year old dudes that remember the Colt '45's. Had a rough time with a frat boy/CFB pair last year, but aside from that, Houston fans have been very nice and respectful

by Valatan on May 4, 2006 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

different experience

i had the mis-fortune of being at game 4 (in houston) last year for the nlcs. i hated everything about that experience. the fans were complete and total jackasses. there were probably 10 cards fans in the stadium (roof closed, of course) that night. very hostile environment. naturally, i was sporting cardinal red with my cards cap - as was my girlfriend. we heard lots of bad things, man. bad, bad things.

game was just as bad. if you don't recall (i wish i didn't), that was the game jed got tossed, rodriguez hit a 429 ft out to center and pujol's got thrown out at home in the ninth. sigh....still makes me sick.

i agree though....that buzzing sound is probably the single most annoying thing in sports today. well, that and the 314 ft. fence in left.

effing astros.

by busch league on May 4, 2006 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah,

I was at game 5 that year. That was when I encountered aforementioned frat boy and CFB--they were both so dumb that it was hard to get pissed at them. The rest of the people around us were knowledgable and respectful

by Valatan on May 4, 2006 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Rolen

He was in the dugout last night, and apparently wanted to play. He should be in the lineup tonight according to Joe Strauss at the P-D:

Third baseman Scott Rolen rejoined the club Wednesday and pushed to be in the lineup against Astros ace Roy Oswalt before manager Tony La Russa and trainers thought it better for him to wait until at least tonight's game before playing.

by STLEdge on May 4, 2006 9:23 AM EDT reply actions

Rolen playing

On KTRS this morning they said not until Florida . . . .

by knieriemd on May 4, 2006 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

How grim is the Mulder...

...situation? Are we looking a 15-day DL trip (3 starts or so) or more?

If Mulder misses some starts, is Wainwright the new #5 starter? Because I highly doubt that it's going to be Reyes.

by bgh on May 4, 2006 9:30 AM EDT reply actions

JRod hit 2

that would have been home runs in any other park.

Same with Pujols' 9th-inning blast---went about 410 feet.

by salvomania on May 4, 2006 10:04 AM EDT reply actions

Stupidity

Did you hear the Astros announcer commenting on those shots? It was something like "Well, this park gives up its share of cheapie home runs to left, but it takes away the long flies to center that would be homers anywhere else. It all evens out."

Sort that logic out, if you can.

by flynn on May 4, 2006 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

sounds like a Miloism

i can't listen to Milo Hamilton, either.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on May 4, 2006 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Milo

Every decade or so, the Cubs do something right. Getting rid of Milo was one of them.

by kurt on May 4, 2006 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Is it just me

or has J-Rod had a lot of "almost" homeruns? He's hit it far, but always to the deepest part of the park it seems.

by rob is back on May 4, 2006 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Marquis afterthoughts

Here are Marquis's modes, as I see them:

All Revved-Up Marquis, featuring a high, nonsinking sinker and big, fat, juicy, belt-high, middle-of-the-plate fastballs
Marquis The Hardhead, featuring a supposedly needed fourth pitch (today's flavor of a modified curve) that doesn't work
Zen Marquis, who is golden and relaxed, mixing his very effective sinker, breaking ball and fastball magically
Wobbly Marquis, who can't catch a break while being on the cusp of transitioning to 1. or 3. above.

Last night, I think we got numbers 1. and 4. primarily, with perhaps just a glimmer of 2. and 3. And as long as the evil #2. stays mostly out of the picture, I won't complain too much.

It always seems that LaRussa leaves Marquis in so long because it seems Marquis benefits from the long outings in his next start (I would love to see if statistics bear this view out, but alas, I am not the stats wizard that our dear leader is). Maybe this isn't exactly the case, and it certainly doesn't seem like the kind of reasoning that wins you the game you're actually playing at the moment, but some measure of this must certainly creep into LaRussa's decisionmaking with Marquis.

There should be some methods to mitigate #1. mode above. Personally, I have surreptitiously hoped they would give him love pats with soap in their socks in the showers or tie him to the bumper of the team bus the night before he pitches. Maybe others have more reasoned suggestions. He certainly seems to do better when he's a bit tired.

Duncan's comments could be interpreted a few different ways. He could be saying that Marquis is experimenting too much with his breaking stuff and thus isn't getting it over, indicating a variation of #2. above, but I'm inclined to agree that we're not seeing the Hardhead right now. Dunc, I hope, is indicating he's seeing Wobbly Marquis.

Bennett, as I said last night, may be a better fit with Marquis, as much as I like Molina. If so, that's great. Marquis is certainly like a tropical fish: very picky about his environment. Anyway, I bet you'll see Bennett catching Marquis again next start.

If we could banish Marquis The Hardhead, all his other manifestations are tolerable. So as ineffective as he was, maybe, just maybe, he is learning a lesson. Again.

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 10:38 AM EDT reply actions

tire out marquis!

i think jason could use a short rest (early to do that, i know) to wear his arm down a little, making his sinker sink. if mulder is sore, the opportunity is ripe (unless it's more than a 1 missed start thing). remember how well he did last year in the same kind of situation...

by gthedamned on May 4, 2006 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

misc. pitching stats

Team ERA 3.53, 2nd in NL
Ground outs-360. 1st in NL, by a fairly wide margin
K/9 5.35, 15th in NL
BB/9-2.95, 2nd in NL
K/BB 1.81, 9th in NL
H/9 8.41, 4th in NL

not sure what to make of all this. just some random thoughts:

good gravy, you'd like to see another dominant arm out there who can get a k.

perhaps what they lack in k's, they make up for in gb's. the game is in the defense's hands

for being a grounder staff, i'm suprised they aren't as hittable. that says a couple of things, at least i think...we've got a great infield defense and we've been very lucky.

i could certainly see how Burnett would've helped, except now i'm happy we passed on him, with his injury problems and all.

but i'm with you lboros, i'd like to see an arm who can dominate for the playoffs. who? i dunno.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on May 4, 2006 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

possible trade with Twins

I finally outsmarted the account setup page and am able to post comments. Hooray! I think the trade to make with the Twins is for Brad Radke and either Shannon Stewart or Torii Hunter. Radke is a second half pitcher who has fared pretty well in the playoofs in the AL. Stewart would be a short term solution and you probably wouldn't have to give up much to get him. Maybe Marquis/Lambert and one of our young hitting prospects (say Stavinoha, b/c he doesn't have a position but can hit). For Torii you might have to throw in another prospect. For Johan we would probably have to give up Reyes + McCormick + a good young hitting prospect or two. But even at that price I would do it to win this year and in the future. Having Carp + Johan 1-2 would be very difficult to beat. With Mulder as a 3 and Suppan as 4 our playoff rotation would be very tough. Even if you could only get Radke from the Twins though I think it would be a good deal.

by indakind on May 4, 2006 11:20 AM EDT reply actions

If that's the price for Santana...

let's make a deal. However, the Twins are bucking for a new ballpark... and trading their best player would kill that momentum... so I just don't see it happening. As for the others mentioned... no thanks on Radke, no thanks on Stewart, and Hunter isn't so valuable when not playing centerfield.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on May 4, 2006 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Edmonds won't be around forever

If Hunter could be had without giving up too much, his ~25 homers a year would be nice and he could play rightfield until Edmonds retires. Move him to center when Edmonds needs a day off and put J-Rod in right, then we'd have a decent platoon and a decent DH in J-Rod. Should J-Rod and Encarcion continue to improve, we could have the foundation for a future outfield.

by rob is back on May 4, 2006 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

it should be said

that rodriguez made a hell of a catch out in left last night. Covered like 50 or 60 feet and made a diving catch to get a very hard hit line drive that probably saved a run. Maybe he's coming around in the OF...

by Valatan on May 4, 2006 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

He is showing he deserves a long look, huh?

He appears to have put in a lot of hard work over the winter. His bat looked good last night against a tough pitcher. No way he gets into the lineup Vs. a lefty, not with the Gooch hitting .400 against lefties.

He has over 70% of his hits against lefties.

I want to see little man put one into the porch tonight.

I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

My guess for the lineup tonight

With avgs. against lefties.

Eckstein SS- .324
Luna LF - .333
Pujols 1B - .381
Taguchi CF - .400
Spezio 3B - .571
Encarnacion RF - .172
Molina C - .154
Miles 2B - .615
Carpenter SP - .000

Left out -
Rolen - .222
Edmonds - .105
Gall - 0-1
Bennett - .250

With a .222(4 for 18) batting average against Lefties, does it make sense to rush Rolen out there tonight? I love em but, Spezio is making this decision easy for me. I say no, see ya in Miami Scottie. Get Well Soon.

I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

J to the Rod

is 0-1 with a walk

I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Hah! Quote from Rolen:

"I sat down and ate some peanut butter crackers and said, 'Let's think about some things. If I hit it, can I get to second base? And if I get to second base, can I score from second base without falling down, rolling over into a fetal position and cramping up in a corner because I'm dehydrated?'" Rolen said. "It's probably best that I not address that issue tonight."

by sdrone on May 4, 2006 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

Santana

Buy buy buy; Santana coming to the NL would be what Randy Johnson coming to the NL or Roger Clemens coming to the NL or Pedro Martinez coming to the NL was.

Dominant.

Great pitchers that are dominant in the AL eventually get figured out/lose a step, then move to the NL and kick butt again.

by SirVLCIV on May 4, 2006 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

Hold Up

Before we all gah-gah over Santana, I think we should look at what we have first and maybe make a more finacally smart choice. Someone commented that Walt should put everyone up but Carp and Albert. Ok. Rolen?? Cmon, we need to just wait a few weeks and see. It's May. I would trade to get Santana for Reyes and a few other prospects right now but lets look at what we DO have for now, or a more finacially smart choice.

by stlcardinalsfang on May 4, 2006 3:14 PM EDT reply actions

The Twins are in a payroll slashing scenario

They don't want Rolen. This is more like a Santana for 3 prospects and cash scenario. I'm not fond enoguh of anybody down there not to like a trade for Santana.

Well, If it came down to Reyes, Wainwright and J rod for Santana. I'd miss that trio.

I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Santana would be great

but I am in no way holding my breath. I think we have a better shot at Cabrera or Willis, not that I think we have much of a shot to get them...

by azruavatar on May 4, 2006 3:34 PM EDT reply actions

Why do you think that?

One team is as likely to slash payroll as the other...the Twins are actually in a smaller market than the Marlins.

Plus, the Marlins are trying to move their team - this is essentially like the new ballpark argument for the Twins, but I think it's hard to say one is more likely to be traded than the other. Based on payroll, Cabrera is much less likely to be traded, as he makes less than a million dollars this year and is worth 8 times that. You don't need to move Cabrera for payroll reasons.

by Toddius396 on May 4, 2006 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions