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Game 29 Open Thread: May 4, 2006


carpenter           pettitte
3-1, 1.80            1-4, 5.25

read all about it:

a couple of interesting items in dave studeman's 10 things i didn't know last week feature. first, scroll down to item #3 (slugged "Fangraphs is now tracking WPA") and we find that, among his many amazing achievements in april, albert pujols blew away both leagues in win probability added, or WPA. (if you don't know what WPA is, read this.) studes' chart merely quantifies something  we already knew -- viz., that the pu amassed not just a lot of hits last month, but a lot of important hits. he added nearly 70 percent more win probability than any other player in the majors; he was nearly twice as impactful as his nearest competitors. pretty incredible.

carpenter ranked 3d on the list, by the way, which also quantifies something we already knew: remove carp and pujols from the team and the cardinals don't have much going for them. by the numbers presented here, carp and pujols together were 10 games above average. since the cardinals as a group were 4 games above average in april (ie, they had 4 wins more than a .500 team would have), that means the aggregate contribution of the other 23 players was minus 6 games. replace carp and pujols with league-average players, and these cards would have had a 7-19 month . . . . . .

just what we all wanted to hear.

the other thing to note from studes' list is that david eckstein, a great clutch hitter last season (he hit about .375 w RISP), is among baseball's worst clutch performers so far in 2006. (see item #2, slugged "Lance Berkman has been the best clutch hitter.")  he hasn't been as bad as encarnacion, who ranks third from the bottom, but it's still a wide swing. makes you wonder if opponents might be pitching eckstein a little finer in those situations now that he doesn't have walker or edmonds coming up behind him. . . . .

dayn perry says pujols may be the best hitter ever.

here's an interesting little read at baseball analysts about the voting for the 1979 nl mvp award, which ended in a dead heat between keith hernandez and pops stargell. per this article, the tie may very well have been illegit --- read to find out why.

also at baseball analysts, bryan smith has more glowing words about colby rasmus: "Colby could be showing better patience and contact skills, but everything else -- including baserunning -- has been sensational. Much better prospect than his numbers indicate at this point."

finally, the date has been set for kerry wood's return to the chicago rotation: may 17. mark prior is expected  back "a few weeks" after wood; wade miller purports to be shooting for an early-june return.

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And Milt Pappas
... is gearing up for an Aug. 1 comeback.

by salvomania on May 4, 2006 4:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oliver Perez
might be available according to mlbtraderumors, via Will Carroll.

Would he be an upgrade over what we have?  I know he would talent wise, and I know his era isn't great right now, but this might be a good time to buy low on him, especially if it's just an issue of time to get his velocity back.  He was lights out two years ago, and is still very young.

by Toddius396 on May 4, 2006 5:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I didn't know...
anyone still believe clutch hitting existed.  I thought that had been disproven a gazillion times over by the sabermetric crowd.

by RedbirdRay on May 4, 2006 5:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No---
Clutch HITTERS have been disproven, as in repeatable, year-to-year performance.

But clutch hitting does exist, and certain hitters have years in which they excel at clutch hitting, as in Eck last year.

by salvomania on May 4, 2006 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sample Size
I think I'd have to sample size the number of ABs in a single year with RISP.

by RedbirdRay on May 4, 2006 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lineups
via the P-D website... You might wonder why JuanEnc is batting cleanup with Rolen back -- turns out he's 10-for-25 against Pettitte.

SS Eckstein
2B Luna
1B Pujols
RF Encarnacion
3B Rolen
CF Edmonds
C Molina
LF Taguchi
P Carpenter

2B Biggio
CF Taveras
1B Berkman
3B Ensberg
LF Wilson
RF Lane
C Ausmus
SS Everett
P Pettitte

by DCRedbird on May 4, 2006 7:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds Hitting 6th?
i realize that Jimmy is only 3-30 lifetime against pettite, but I guess i'm still surprised to see him hit 6th in the line-up.  in previous years, would tlr have hit him in the 2 spot to try to get him some good pitches with pujo behind?

by Knish on May 4, 2006 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now that
looks more like a winner--especially with Carp on the hill. Go get 'em boys!!

by rockin redbird on May 4, 2006 7:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh Lord
..Joe Morgan.  I must cover my ears

by birdie on May 4, 2006 8:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Boss is here tonite...
no baseball for me.

by 26thMan on May 4, 2006 8:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yea
Slappy~!

by birdie on May 4, 2006 8:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

YEAH GOOCH!

double, 2 RBI for Taguchi in the 1st inning! YES!!

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 8:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Typical Tony
Going for the squeeze here?

by birdie on May 4, 2006 8:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yadi
the glue that gums the basepaths.  Who ever heard of a bases loaded 2-run double?

by sdesserman on May 4, 2006 8:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think it would have been a triple
The way that ball bounced around in the corner and got stuck to the wall, if third base had been open I think So Taguchi of Japan would have been standing on it.

by SleepyCA on May 4, 2006 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

D-eck
would be nice to more hits with RISP...

by birdie on May 4, 2006 8:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

shannon had a freudian slip
calling Brad Ausmus, Ass-mus. At least that's what I heard

by erik on May 4, 2006 8:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's to The Moonman!
Have another frosty one, Mike!

by 26thMan on May 4, 2006 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good thing I'm not calling the game
I've called him that so many times I'd almost forgotten it wasn't really his name... ;)
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Now
I've missed seeing Scotty field

by birdie on May 4, 2006 8:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Juan
looks like Petite was the pitcher to wake up the bat!
I have an El Hombre ManCrush

by Schnake on May 4, 2006 8:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Scotty!!!!!!!
Great to see him back.

by dccardsfan on May 4, 2006 8:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Can't stand the juicebox
or that stupid train.  Really, is there anything in a ballpark more ridiculous?  Oh, that's right, the hill-for-no-reason in centerfield

by birdie on May 4, 2006 9:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't want to jinx
but do come some of Carp's curves look a little more elevated that previous games?   Or am I just getting rotation paranoia?

by birdie on May 4, 2006 9:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hilarious
Espn had to keep purapura an extra half-inning in the booth b/c Carp set them down so quickly in the bottom of the 3rd.

by sdesserman on May 4, 2006 9:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cool.
The boss let me turn the game on. How'd we score?

by 26thMan on May 4, 2006 9:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bases loaded double by the Gooch
If not for the slowness of Molina it might be 3-0...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gooch
Gooch bases loaded double.  Rolen (on on a fc) and Edmonds (1b) score.  Yadi stops at 3rd.

by sdesserman on May 4, 2006 9:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

All righty, then.
Thanks, S-Dess!

by 26thMan on May 4, 2006 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

more like Yadi
was winded by 3rd

by birdie on May 4, 2006 9:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

horse
s**t, effin illegal ballpark!

by sdesserman on May 4, 2006 9:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I said I didn't want to jinx
don't blame me.  I was talking about the curve

by birdie on May 4, 2006 9:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Glad this isn't Marquis
Carp will get his groove

by birdie on May 4, 2006 9:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is anyone else getting tired
of hearing about Taveras' speed every time he catches a fly ball?
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 9:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

IT's better than the pregame show

where Roger Clemens was the Helitech Highlight featured player.

Talk about ignorant.

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fyi on Jeff Nelson
The White Sox signed him to a minor league contract.  He'll most likely be called up soon to help the bullpen.

by sdrone on May 4, 2006 9:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow
The plate umpire's strike zone blows.

by 26thMan on May 4, 2006 9:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep
In one of the early innings Hrabosky mentioned how they weren't giving Carp the outside corner. He went on to say they wouldn't with either pitcher all night, but then they gave Petite several later on. They're still not giving it to Carp, however.

by rob is back on May 4, 2006 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

rookie ump
They also said he's never been behind the plate in the big leagues before...

by SleepyCA on May 4, 2006 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Geez.
that play that scored the Astros' fourth run was reminiscent of my softball team.

by 26thMan on May 4, 2006 9:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That looked like bad communication

I think if Encarnacion should have made that catch but he was concerned about where the other guys were. Oh well, the run still would have scored.

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 9:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

1)
Joe Morgan is in love with the stros and it's tiresome.  

2)  Yadi - something about molasses in Jan.

by sdesserman on May 4, 2006 10:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

LOL
I was waiting for them to say something like that...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that
that curve makes me cry for joy.

by tnek5 on May 4, 2006 10:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mess him up, Jimmy!

Cmon, we need some clutch hitting here.

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 10:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds strikes out
...didn't see that coming...(sigh)
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 10:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no offense to astro fans
but the ones at the park seem a bit stupid.

booing albert, booing every pitch on 2 stikes that isn't called for the third, booing wainwright for missing a pitch that tavares had to duck.

by erik on May 4, 2006 10:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great play by Eck
Had to hurry as well...it turns out Taveras is fast...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 10:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Me too
Afraid it's gonna be wasted though... :(
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wainwright
looks awesome.

that 2-1 curve to ensberg made him look silly and even fooled the ump.  still got the strikeout though.

by booker28 on May 4, 2006 10:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gotta love Wainwright's performance

With so many problems right now (Rolen recovering, Pujols ragged, Mulder hurting, Marquis being Marquis, Suppan not sharp, the entire outfield's production, second base uncertainty), it's nice to see Wainwright so rock solid.

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 10:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

YESS!!

I absolutely love JRod!!!

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 10:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Why
was Miles not bunting?
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 10:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Miles vs. Lidge

LaRussa clearly likes that matchup, but I can't say I agree.

Putting a contact hitter against such a fireballer doesn't match up somehow to me.

by glamberson on May 4, 2006 10:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

gary bennett?
i must be missing something here....

by erik on May 4, 2006 10:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

pujols left on deck
this sucks 4L in a row. When do we go back home?

by erik on May 4, 2006 10:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah
and he didn't produce.

by tnek5 on May 4, 2006 10:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And again
Albert left standing on deck...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on May 4, 2006 10:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

why
why not gall. Heck, at least he has more power.

by tnek5 on May 4, 2006 11:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah.
ending the game with gary bennett at the plate is acceptable in a 14th inning game.  But here?

by Valatan on May 5, 2006 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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