Marquis

by TheFranchise9 on May 30, 2006 12:00 AM EDT

Cardinal Nation,

Let me start this post by saying that I agree that Jason Marquis can be a very bullheaded, stubborn, whiny little punk. BUT, I think as a whole, the guy deserves some dap for what he has done this season and maybe we should all get off his back and try to enjoy his production. I know there's the talk of his low strikeout rates, his high walk rates, his high fly ball ratios and on and on, but the bottom line - yes, sometimes you gotta look at the bottom line - is that he now stands at 7-4 with a 4.75 era and a respectable 1.26 whip. We should also acknowledge that Monday was a key game for the Birds to beat Oswalt and position themselves to win the series and potentially bury the Stros. Marquis did his part and Pujols did the rest.

The point of this post is to take a closer look into Marquis' season. He started out great with three solid starts before the frustratingly awful four-game stretch. Since then, he has rattled off four-straight W's.

In his seven victories, Marquis has went 49.1 ip (5.1, 6, 8, 7, 7.2, 8.1 and 7 ip) and has posted a sparkling 2.92 era with a 0.89 whip and a 5.52 k per 9 ratio. These games haven't exactly come against cupcake lineups either. Here is the list of teams Marquis has beaten - Philly, Milwaukee, Arizona, New York Mets, San Fran and Houston with the lone non-playoff caliber team being the lowly Pirates.

His four losses were against the Cubs, Nats, Stros and Rockies --- only 1 playoff caliber team in that group.

So is it possible that Marquis pitches to the level of his competition? Was the four-game stretch just a hiccup in his continuing maturation process that we saw begin in the second half of last season? Or is it like so many seem to think, that Marquis is just a head case who will rattle off four in a row and then completely lose it for a month before finding his groove again?

I personally think the kid is 27 and is doing quite well for himself. I give him the benefit of the doubt and still think he is capable of being a major asset for STL this season, this postseason and for many years to come if resigned.

Finally, I just wish that if we are going to be so hard on the guy when he is bad that we'd give him a bit more praise when he steps up and gets it done like today and like he has in nearly 65 percent of his starts this year.

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I'd give him more praise

If he was doing something that I thought was sustainable over the course of the season. I'm glad that he's not allowing a lot of earned runs in these games, and it's good that he's doing it, but I can't give him credit unless I know what it is he's doing.

by DanUpBaby on May 30, 2006 3:27 AM EDT reply actions

What he's doing

is defying the profile sabermetricians have developed over the years for what makes an effective ML pitcher. That doesn't mean the profile is wrong, but like any theory, it is a model of the real world ... but it's not the real world itself. He's an outlier, which will always occur when you're working with a large enough universe of players. Will he sustain that over a long period? I don't know. I do know that at some point we may need to accept that he's an unusual case (we do LIKE unusual cases, don't we, Pujols fans?). I think that point comes by the end of this season if his odd numbers and results hold up.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 30, 2006 9:17 AM EDT reply actions

I get the whole statistical outlier remark

but we do seem to have an awful lot of them in our rotation. Does anyone's peripherals really back up their more aggregate stats like ERA other than Carp? And things like that make it hard to place an accurate dollar amount on those kinds of pitchers. Given that we have to sign/promote some combination of 4 pitchers it is cause for concern.

I just worry that we may find ourselves with a house of cards that comes crashing down unexpectedly...

That being said, Marquis did pitch effectively yesterday.

by azruavatar on May 30, 2006 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Which is why I'm glad

my name isn't Walt Jocketty. If you think about it we have a lot of weirdness on our squad. Edmonds is one of the most unusual hitters I've ever seen. Miles has no business, considering his history, putting up a .390 OBP. Pujols is a freak. Eck is a very unusual player. It is very difficult for a major leaguer to hit as badly as Molina.

The way I see it, the 2004 Cardinals had no business lying down to the Red Sox the way they did, and yet they did. The baseball gods are playing with our minds again.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 30, 2006 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Considering the last few games

it seems like maybe Marquis is is not just missing but trying to become a more controlled strikeout pitcher. The problem is he doesn't have the control or the mentality to be a strikeout pitcher.

He is a tough competitor with some talent, but the bottom line for me is he seems to be developing his own strategy for success, and I have much less confidence in his model than I do in Dunc and LaRussa's.

We should ditch him as soon as possible, and let him experiment somewhere else. There are better people out there.

by glamberson on May 30, 2006 8:28 PM EDT reply actions