o strike zone, where art thou?

by lboros on May 19, 2006 9:42 AM EDT in News Comment 41 comments

here's a quick programming note: if you're into amateur baseball, head on over to john sickels' Minor League Ball and sign up to represent the cardinals in the 2d annual mock draft. it was a big success when they did it last year -- lot of fun, and some pretty accurate drafting to boot. for example, last year the mock st louis drafters (i wasn't one of them) selected tyler greene with one of the cardinals' two first-round picks -- exactly as it later happened in real life. the draft will only run five rounds, a manageable number; prob'y take most of a day. if you're interested, head on over there and sign up to be part of the st louis drafting team. all the rules, dates, times, etc are posted at sickels' site.

something clicked for jason marquis after the 4th inning yesterday:

inns	pitches	balls	strikes
1-4	70	31	39
5-8	38	10	28

this appears to be part of a pattern, not just a one-game phenomenon. in innings 1-3 so far this season, marquis has walked 17 guys and hit 4 in 122 plate appearances. that's 21 free passes to first base -- one out of every six batters. but from the 4th inning on, marquis has walked only 6 guys and hit 0 in 117 plate appearances -- one free pass for every 20 batters. this tendency has persisted throughout his career as a cardinal; his walk+hp rate in the 1st three innings is 1 per 8 hitters; from the 4th on, it's only 1 per 12 -- a 50 percent improvement over his early-inning rate.

i did a quick check on the cardinals' other starters to see if perhaps this isn't as freaky as it seems. turns out it's pretty freaky; the other pitches' walk+hp rates are all constant from the early innings to the late ones, which is what i would expect. might there be a rational explanation for marquis' split? let's try a few on for size:

it's the fatigue factor: in the early innings his arm is too fresh; the sinker rides, the fastball sails, and nothing arrives at the intended target. once jason's arm is warmed up and worn down, he has better command.
it's psychological: it takes marquis a few innings to clear his head of all the impulses that have built up in it during the four days since his previous start. eventually the flow of a game quiets his mind, and instinct takes over; marquis thinks less, pitches more, and his command improves.
it's an illusion: the stats are distorted by marquis' occasional implosions. he only gets to the 5th/6th/7th innings when he's having a good game, so those innings disproportionately represent jason at his best. the split is an illusion and means nothing.

i'd be more inclined to believe the last one if at least one other pitcher on the staff exhibited a tendency that was even remotely similar to jason's. maybe if i looked at a larger sample of pitchers, i'd find that this kind of split isn't uncommon. but i think it's more likely i would find that it's not uncommon among below-average pitchers. . . .given what we know about marquis, i think #2 makes the most sense. but i'll entertain other ideas -- and i'll accept that there's no explaining it, that it's just part and parcel of this player's consistent inconsistency.

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Could you eliminate option 3

by only including games where he makes it to the 6th or 7th inning, so the real blowups are removed?

by BTown Birds fan on May 19, 2006 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Option 3

This is the right way to address option 3. It'll be interesting to see if the early inning pattern occurs even in games where Marquis goes 6 or 7.

by ncgostl on May 19, 2006 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

marquis has pitched

into the 6th inning in all but one game this year; even when he implodes, tony leaves him out there to absorb further punishment.

if we break down this year's numbers by the 5 starts he has won, vs the 4 he has lost, it's like this:

when marquis wins:
inn 1-3: 7 w+hbp in 69 batters, or 1 per 10 batters
inn 4+: 4 w+hbp in 70 batters, or 1 per 17.5

when marquis loses:
inn 1-3: 14 w+hbp in 53 batters, or 1 per 3.8 batters (!!)
inn 4+: 2 w+hbp in 47 batters, or 1 per 23.5 batters

these are tiny samples, but the split holds whether jason wins or he loses. indeed, his sharpest control seems to come after he has already gotten bombed --- ie, in the middle/late innings of his losing games.

by lboros on May 19, 2006 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you can also see

that when jason doesn't throw strikes, he gets killed -- one walk or hbp for every four batters in the early innings of his losing games.

like, duh -- i don't think we needed a lot of statistical research to discover that one.

by lboros on May 19, 2006 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

with option 1. I think the Carindals should always throw Marquis on three days rest (not really, but his arm is better when its tired). See this game for proof. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=250827120
last year, i know. but still.

by stlcardinalsfang on May 19, 2006 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From Gordo's column today...

comes this statistical gem:

"After driving in Rolen during his first at bat, Spiezio scored J-Rod with an RBI double in the fifth inning. That gave him 14 RBIs in his part-time role -- as many as full-time right fielder Juan Encarnacion has this season."

I'd read the whole thing. I enjoy his bullet point tidbit pieces.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/jeffgordon/story/3680F04768F494FF862571720071 2165?OpenDocument

by bgh on May 19, 2006 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Based on that...

and the fact that he was good enough to be an everyday player in the past, why not get Spiezio in the lineup every day? Even if his outfield defense is only passable, he's got more of a bat than the warm bodies we've shuffled in and out of left.

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan

by Quietude on May 19, 2006 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

It looks like from his historical stats he's playing a bit over his head right now. His last two full seasons he posted OPS's of .779 and .634. I like him in the role he is in right now: a utility man that can play 5 different positions. He is on pace to get about 225 AB's, I think that is about right for him.

by mikedallas23 on May 19, 2006 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

that '04 season, he only got 367 AB in 112 games. If you go back to '03, he's got OPSes of .807 and .779.

I don't think he's a viable long-term option, but even if his production drops off some he's still a better hitter than Larry TaLunRidguez.

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan

by Quietude on May 19, 2006 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's look a little bit deeper than RBI total...

RBI total is a very superficial number. After all are you more likely to have the chance to drive runs in more frequently if you are batting behind Albert Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen or behind Molina, the pitcher, and Eckstein?

The #2 hole fills the role of a table setter for The Greatest Baseball Player in the World, Jimmy Edmonds and Scott Rolen. Whereas the #4, #5, and #6 hole has the role of driving in those who have gotten on base. Lets see how these numbers shape up.

Spiezio
#2 Hole: 0-5
#4 Hole: 1-2
#5 Hole: 11-30, 7 RBI
#6 Hole: 4-16, 4 RBI, 2 HR
#8 Hole: 0-2
#9 Hole: 1-6, 2 RBI, 1 HR*

Presumably in a pinch hitting capacity

We can see that 5 of Spiezio's 61 Abs, or 8.1% of his ABs, are in a table setter lineup hole while 48 of his 61 ABs, or 78.7% of his ABs, are in the #4, #5 or #6 holes, which are traditional RBI spots in the lineup.

Lets compare this with Rodriguez's breakdown by position in lineup:

*Rodriguez

#2 Hole: 18-45, 11 R, 4 RBI
#3 Hole: 1-1
#5 Hole: 1-3, 2 RBI
#6 Hole: 3-10, 2 R
#7 Hole: 1-1
#9 Hole: 2-7

Rodriguez has a total of 67 ABs this young season. 45 of the 67, or 67.2% of his ABs, have been the #2 hole while 14, or 20.9% of his ABs, have been in the #3, #5, or #6 holes.

I wondered if the common knowledge about number of ABs in which there is the possibility to drive in runs depending on spot in the order was true. Turns out, it is.

Spiezio
61 ABs
22 ABs with RISP (36.1% of AB)
8 Abs with Runner on 1B Only (13.1% of AB)
30 ABs with Runners On Base (49.2% of AB)
31 ABs with No One On Base (50.8%)

Rodriguez
67 ABs
12 ABs with RISP (17.9% of AB)
12 ABs with Runner on 1B Only (17.9% of AB)
24 ABs with Runners On Base (35.8% of AB)
43 ABs with No One On Base (64.2% of AB)

Spiezio has had 10 more opportunities to bat with RISP. He has had 6 more opportunities to bat with runners on base. Add to this fact that Rodriguez has had 4 more ABs with a runner on 1b only and 12 more ABs with no one on base. Of course Spiezio is going to have more RBI, but that doesn't mean that he more productive.

Here are their performances in some of the categories shown above:

Spiezio
RISP: 8-20, .364 BA, 10 RBI
RUNO: 11-30, .367 BA, 12 RBI

Rodriguez
RISP: 6-12, .500 BA, 6 RBI
RUNO: 9-24, .375 BA, 6 RBI

Here are their total 2006 lines:

Spiezio
61 AB/.279 BA/.375 OBP/.557 SLG/.932 OPS
3 HR/14 RBI/4 R

Rodriguez
67 AB/.388 BA/.442 OBP/.493 SLG/.935 OPS
0 HR/ 6 RBI/15 R

In fact, if anything, Rodriguez has been more productive. He has 11 more Runs Scored than Spiezio despite having 3 fewer HR. Spiezio has driven in 8 more runs, but has had a larger number of opportunities and the discrepancy is still less that the Runs Scored discrepancy. Rodriguez has a slightly higher OPS, a much higher OBP and BA. And he's done this in more ABs.

Judging by their production so far this season, there is no reason that Scott Spiezio should be playing in LF over John Rodriguez, who has performed excellently in the #2 hole, getting on base for the big boppers, but has also done excellent work when at the plate with ducks on the pond.

(I might breakdown So later.)

by bgh on May 19, 2006 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any "non-production"

in LF so far has been the result of putting anyone BUT Rodriguez out there. But with JRod now a near-regular, LF is no longer a problem. Our offensive problems are mostly a result of the overall horribleness of our right fielder and catcher, and to a lesser extent, the decline in Edmonds' numbers.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 19, 2006 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All I know

All I know is that our #2 hitter has the 2nd worst OPS in the majors.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type =type1&sort=OPS&split=110&season=2006

Also our #7 (molina) is the worst in the league.

#8 is 2nd best though. Our 2b combo has been dominant.

by DimitroffVodka on May 19, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MDRedbirdFreak is right...

about LF production and is probably correct about #2 Hole production using the same rule.

Our RF production is also 2nd-worst in MLB (OPS of .644), which might be indicative of who started the season getting the majority of ABs in the #2 Hole. Encarnacion has 47 ABs in the #2 Hole and an OPS of .458 in those ABs.

Rodriguez has 45 AB in the #2 Hole and an OPS of .920 in those ABs. So imagine how horrid our production might be if we did not bat Rodriguez there 45 times.

by bgh on May 19, 2006 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Break out those

numbers by player, and you'll see about 4 guys who have gotten the bulk of the ABs at #2, and that JRod has been outstanding in that slot (Luna is the second best, believe it or not). As long as TLR continues the recent lineups, that ranking will rise fast.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 19, 2006 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Caught off base...

The tidbit from the Gordo line was comparing the numbers vs. the right fielder, not the left fielder. The case should be made for Spiezio getting more ABs in place of Encarnacion, not Rodriguez (or Taguchi, for that matter). I think at this point most may not be overjoyed, but at least satisfied with what the platoon of J-Rod and Taguchi have provided as "table-setters" in the No. 2 spot. No one can be satisfied with JuanE's contributions so far at the plate, in the field or on the bases. If Spiezio doesn't have the arm or wheels for RF, then play him in LF vs. RHP and move J-Rod to RF where he's played before.

Baily

by Baily on May 19, 2006 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Off Topic

I thought some of you might get a kick out of this:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/48681

by CincyCard on May 19, 2006 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i know that guy

by lboros on May 19, 2006 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

Jason should warm-up longer in the pen before the game to wear down the arm a little more so he can pitch other pitchers do it when thier all hyped up.I would rather see the Spezer out there than Juan.Let's face it the guy sucks let's cut our loses from the offseason and trade him maybe get a bench player with pop.I'm just seeing tino all over again and I am one who stuck behind Tina when he struggled I won't be burned twice.

by sportsmanspark78 on May 19, 2006 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course, we DON'T want

him to get injured because we mess with his routine. heh.

by sdrone on May 19, 2006 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For unintentional comedy

(and tragedy at the same time), read the odd (and oddly titled) little article in the PD today: "The Hottest Redbirds Prospects." It mentions 8 Cardinal minor leaguers, every single one of them either out with an injury or coming back from an injury or surgery. Someone at the PD has a very dark sense of humor.

by MdRedbirdFreak on May 19, 2006 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It make me sad...

to think about what could have been.

"Pedro Martinez said that before he signed with the Mets he strongly considered the Cardinals. "I spoke to Tony La Russa and some of those guys and this was a team I was willing to take a big (pay) cut to come to. But, as you know, Omar (Minaya, the Mets general manager) came and he spoke to me, one Dominican to another, and here I am. ... It was between the Mets and St. Louis when I got really close (to deciding)." The Mets outbid everyone else with a four-year, $53-million contract."

http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/11480151928220.xml&coll=1

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan

by Quietude on May 19, 2006 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why would you believe that?

Pedro mouths off from time to time; he wanted cash. Otherwise, he'd have stayed in Boston. They freaking worship him.

by sdrone on May 19, 2006 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im going with #2

I was watching him last night and I was correctly predicting his pitches. Just if it was going to be a good or bad pitch.

In his warm up before his throw he looks tense and moved around too much then a bad throw was coming. If he was loose and not moving around then it was a good pitch.

It was getting too freaky on my predictions so I stopped watching the game.

by DimitroffVodka on May 19, 2006 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How about this

Has Marquis ever pitched on short rest? If so what are his stats and could this prove/disprove hypothesis #1?

by elderj on May 19, 2006 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Marquisstarted on short rest last season

in RFK vs. the Nats. Also IIRC, this start was the one where he turned his season around.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on May 19, 2006 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

correct-o

that's what made me think of that explanation -- the short rest start vs the nats

by lboros on May 19, 2006 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats

exactly what he needs to much rest to much pent up energy.

by sportsmanspark78 on May 19, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've strongly believed

for a while that it would be worth a team's effort to attempt a four man rotation again. I've seen statistical studies that indicate that the five-man rotation really doesn't prevent injury any more effectively, and you get marquis-type players that don't respond to the longer rest.

It would've made more sense for, say, the 2005 Astros or the 2002 Diamondbacks, but I would be kind of curious to see it tried with this Cardinal ballclub.

by Valatan on May 19, 2006 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A good 3-part series

on the merits of the 4-man rotation can be found here:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on May 19, 2006 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from part II

"There is another substantial benefit that comes from the four-man rotation, which is that pitchers have better command on three days' rest. Almost every pitching coach--and most pitchers that have tried--will tell you that when you pitch on three days' rest, your stuff is a little sharper, and has a little more sink."

by SleepyCA on May 19, 2006 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

reason #4

my pal Bluto Blutarski e-mailed me another reason for marquis' weird tendency:

"I think Marquis pitches better late in the game precisely because he pitches shitty early in the game. He knows what he has to do to win, but at the beginning of a game he doesn't acknowledge it --- he desperately wants his wrong beliefs to be validated. After he gets lit (and probably after Duncan rams it into him again) he changes his approach. It's sheer stubbornness."

sounds plausible to me

by lboros on May 19, 2006 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ESPN.com

just posted a story saying that Russ Springer got a 4 game suspension and an undisclosed fine and manager Phil Garner got a 1 game suspension and and undiscolsed fine for throwing at Barry Bonds. Tell me that's not scwed.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2450863

by stlcardinalsfang on May 19, 2006 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Springer should be

Springer deserves to be suspended. Here is Bonds last 4 AB's vs Springer.

HR by Bonds
Hit by Pitch
Hit by Pitch
Hit by Pitch

I am not even joking. I think he has some built up rage against him.

by DimitroffVodka on May 19, 2006 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

For some reason the phrase "built up rage" instantly brings to mind Samuel L. Jackson in A Time to Kill. "Yes they deserve to die and I hope they burn in hell!" Yep. Russ Springer.

by effin fisk on May 19, 2006 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Springer obviously

threw at Bonds. There is no gray area here, no matter how one feels about Bonds. If Thompson, Hancock, or Wainwright threw at Bonds intentionally, I would expect them to get suspended, and would wholeheartedly support it.

by cardsrul on May 19, 2006 3:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Threw, and threw, and threw...

Springer not only hit Bonds, he threw at him about 3 times before connecting. I think his first one went behind Bonds, actually. (Could be wrong, I saw the replay late at night...)

by flynn on May 19, 2006 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess bringing Marquis in after the 4th

wouldn't help any? ;-) We could let Wainwright do his stuff early, since he won't be needed if Marquis comes in after the 4th inning.

Seriously though, I think it's #2 and that it explains #1, because who ever heard of an arm that was too fresh? If the mental aspect was there then there would be no worry about his arm being too fresh, right? After getting rid of some jitters he probably relaxes and starts hitting his target better.

by rob is back on May 19, 2006 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cookie cutter Stadium

Not sure how long it will be up there on the front page of ESPN, but does the new proposed Mets stadium look familiar?

http://www.espn.go.com

by sdelek on May 19, 2006 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Better View

You can get a better view that will stay active here:
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/nym/ballpark/newpark_images.jsp

by sdelek on May 19, 2006 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's because

it's the same architect as Busch...HOK Sport.

by cardsrul on May 19, 2006 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marquis as a reliever?

Don Sutton has said many times (both when Jason was with the Braves and since he came to the Cardinals) that Marquis has a reliever's mentality. Work more often with less rest, pitches better later in the game, etc. No doubt when he stays focused and throws strikes down in the zone that he's effective....

by wildman on May 21, 2006 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs