I like how PECOTA projects 100 hits in 400 at-bats and calls it a .249 batting average.

I also never would've thunk Nick Johnson was an All-Star.

You learn several things every day I suppose.

I still think our best hope is that Duncan's spring makes him attractive trade bait; regardless of how good a hitter he is, his defense makes him almost useless to St. Louis other than as a late game pinch hitter, or a five time a year starter at first base.

after looking over the numbers, he is perhaps a little better prospect than i gave him credit for.  i'd probably be more excited about him if his last name was different.  if he goes to AAA and continues to mash that would be a different story.  lots of people can hit well in ST.

i wouldnt count on him being trade bait.  there is no shortage of players that can hit the long ball but do little else.  i just cant see how he would be anything other than a throw in, and they probably arent going to throw in the coach's son.  then again, maybe he wouldnt mind getting out from underneath the microscope.

On the topic of Duncan and his tradeability - I seem to recall a local game broadcast late last season in which it was suggested by the local guys (I can't remember if it was a weekend or not) that Duncan and his family were hoping that he would in fact be traded.  Between being stuck behind Pujols and having the cloud of nepotism hanging over him, supposedly they thought it would be for the best.

Maybe it's true, maybe not.

Oh, another thought on Duncan.  I was told years ago that to project power in the minors you should look for hitters than have extra base hits with 30% or more of their total hits as an indicator.  You know, the whole doubles turning into home runs thing.

Duncan had XBH 35% of the time in 2004, 37% last year.  It's not completely impossible to think that he's finally turned his doubles into home runs...

How does anyone know about his defense?  Have you seen him play or seen a scouting report on him...or is this just a general rumor?  Is he error prone or range limited?  

I have heard that he needs a season down to learn how to play outfield.  In my opinion, he should be considered for the left field job as seriously as anyone else on the team right now.  I have heard a lot of people on Cards talk who are quick to point out that it is spring training, and he is playing against some watered down competition.  While that may be true...so are Taguchi, Bigbie, and Rodriguez and they are all hitting around .200 for the spring.  They have all received significant at bats.  And one could hardly scoff at Randy Johnson as watered down competition.

I personally don't think you have to be that good of an outfielder to play left field.  My baseball coach used to always say that you put your fastest and best athlete in center, your best arm in right, and whoever else can hit in left.  Having been an outfielder myself, I honestly think this is true.  (I think its crazy that Barry Bonds has ever won a gold glove, partially because of this)  

I also think that the major league equivalent projections are very skewed.  I think it presupposes that your performance will be worse at the higher level, and while I understand the thought process, I disagree.  Lots of people play BETTER in the big leagues.  Albert Pujols hit more homeruns in his first season in the bigs than his last season in minors.  There are several possible reasons for this.  One is that you play more games.  Another is the fact that the major leagues has the smallest strike zone.  Depending on the umpire, I think the strike zone in the bigs(heighth wise) is about the size of 1000 page books thickness.  Of course, I realize that there is better pitching.  Especially better breaking balls.  Guys see big league fastballs (speed wise) in the minors, and there are a lot of good arms out there.  Anyway, IMO if Duncan hits all spring and we don't make an upgrade anywhere he deserves a platoon shot at left field (Taguchi I guess).  He should have the same shot as the other guys, based on the merits of his performance and talent.  Whatever else can be said about him, he has special power.  Maybe that makes him a one tool player, I don't know.  

As for the possibility of him being traded, I don't think the Cardinals are any less likely to trade him than anyone else.  They are in the business of putting the best team they can on the field (for the money they have), and being traded to another team might actually give him a chance to play.  I don't know if there are teams he could start in the outfield for, but there might be.  I think his dad would be happy for his son to move on to a better opportunity (but of course I don't know him).  

I think you were probably joking about getting Grudz back, but I don't know.  We can't get him back is the answer though, and I don't think management wants him back at that price (citing the 2 mil budget for 2b).  They could have signed him for that if they wanted to, and the Royals are not in any position to eat part of anyone's salary.

Just a few of my thoughts, for what little they're worth.