kidd stuff

by lboros on Mar 10, 2006 9:30 AM EST in News Comment 30 comments

you can read about anthony reyes' new two-seamer at both the post dispatch and the official site. the latter article, by matthew leach, included this passage:

Reyes has a tendency to work up in the zone, thanks to the velocity and life of his riding four-seamer. But the sinking two-seamer is a sine qua non as far as the Cards are concerned. And if it means Reyes takes a few lumps while he learns it, so be it.

There will be no grading on a curve, even though the youngster is competing with the established Sidney Ponson for a rotation spot.

"He can't be successful without it," said La Russa. "How is that tough? It gives you your best chance. You can't pitch at the top of the zone -- I don't care how hard you throw.

on how many levels is this type of thinking wrong-headed? tony/dunc are telling a pitcher who's been very successful at every level, from college on up, that he can't be successful in the big leagues -- just the message you want the system's #1 prospect to hear. and their conclusion is based not on any empirical evidence (ie, reyes getting drilled by big-league hitters) but rather on their philosophy that the correct way to pitch is to get groundballs. they're forcing reyes to conform to that ideology, rather than taking his skills at face value and helping him maximize his strengths. i'd rather have reyes working this spring on changing speeds and locating his curveball, as opposed to getting the feel of a foreign pitch -- one on which, the post's derrick goold reports, reyes is getting "hammered."

to succeed over the long haul, reyes probably does need another pitch -- two-seamer, splitter, whatever. but there is no evidence that he needs it yet. the guy throws 95, moves the ball around in the strike zone, and has poise and intelligence -- and that ought to be enough to get him established as a big-league pitcher. once he's had some success with his core tool kit -- or, conversely, has found his core tool kit inadequate -- then let him work on expanding it.

when i was at cal in the 1980s, the basketball team had a point guard named kevin johnson -- the future "kj" of nba all-star fame -- with extraordinary skills, and a coach (lou campanelli) with a rigid ideology about the correct way to play basketball. he straitjacketed the kid so badly that cal only got one lonely NIT bid during johnson's four seasons; a pretty thin haul for so talented a player. a few years later cal had another heralded point guard -- jason kidd -- who was similarly hog-tied in his freshman year, until kidd and his teammates (including another future nbaer, lamond murray) rebelled at midseason and got campanelli tossed. assistant coach todd bozeman took over, and the team went 9-1 down the stretch to salvage a lost season and sneak into the ncaa tournament as a #10 seed. they went on to beat two-time defending champ duke in the 2d round and advance to the sweet 16.

kidd had plenty of holes in his game at age 18 -- he was a bad outside shooter, not a great distributor in the half-court, an unsteady decision-maker. campanelli believed (as la russa does with reyes) that his player couldn't succeed until he addressed his weaknesses; but bozeman focused instead on the skills at which kidd already excelled -- pushing the fast break and driving to the basket -- and built the team around those. later on, kidd eventualy did have to address his weaknesses, but he was already prepared for success in the short term; he just needed the opportunity to show it.

vis-a-vis tony reyes, this two-seamer business depresses me even more than the ponson signing. get out of the kid's way and let him pitch, dammit. save your sine qua nons for sidney ponson and josh hancock and the various other projects hovering around camp; they might benefit.

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AMEN!

Cardinals Diaspora

by VanRam on Mar 10, 2006 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes!

Here! Here! I've had the same conversation around the water cooler concerning Tony and Dunc several times. Stop trying to fix what ain't broken!

by PhatAlbert on Mar 10, 2006 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

timing

why the hell are they just getting to this now? if throwing ground balls is really the team philosophy, why are they waiting until ST to teach? shouldnt he have been learning the two seamer last year in AAA. it seems like tony has already made his mind who the fifth starter will be and they just want this to be the ready made excuse...tell reyes to go to AAA to work on his two seamer. i havent seen reyes pitch but that one time in milwaukee, and i thought his change up had good late movement down in the zone.

by dmb60614 on Mar 10, 2006 10:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was...

at that same Milwaukee game and couldn't agree more. We have one of the best center fielders and pretty adequate corners, let some fly balls go out there if that is what the kid can do best!

Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Mar 10, 2006 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not necessarily Amen

What does this have to do with ground balls?

After once or twice around the league, if he's throwing a riding fastball, hitters will learn to lay off anything that looks remotely high. They will know that it will just get higher as it gets to the plate.

by sdrone on Mar 10, 2006 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The high heat

seems to work pretty well for guys like Prior and Lidge...

by salvomania on Mar 10, 2006 10:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely - but it takes 2.

Prior has 2 other great pitches.

Where would Lidge be without his "best slider in baseball?"

by sdrone on Mar 10, 2006 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Lidge's slider

wound up somewhere above the crawford boxes last year...

sorry just like to remember that moment whenever I can. I agree with your point that hitters will figure out his high heat but I'd rather force them to figure that out than just golfing Ponson's balls out of the park.

by azruavatar on Mar 10, 2006 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Arguing with the experts

My heart says AMEN, let Reyes be Reyes. But I have a nagging concern that maybe LaRussa and Duncan know a LOT more than I do about pitching in the big leagues, and maybe they think that Reyes needs that pitch to be outstanding, and maybe he won't work hard enough to develop it if he thinks his other stuff is good enough.

And then my heart yells back - Mariano Rivera has one pitch, and he's not too shabby.

Ain't spring training fun?

by madridbend on Mar 10, 2006 11:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmm

When do the games start counting again?

by jroman on Mar 10, 2006 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

How can Tony be so f***ing rock-headed and say something asinine like "He can't be successful without it"? LOOK AT HIS NUMBERS. I don't think anyone thinks that Reyes has bad stuff that needs to be refined. The major question is his health, not the lack of a 2-seamer. Look at this quote from Baseball America's Top 100 list:
"He's going to make you put the ball in play and give the defense a chance to make plays behind him. He is always ahead in the count and he is not going to beat himself."
--Round Rock manager Jackie Moore
So why again are we teaching him a skill he already has? Baseball America also says (I know they don't know everything, but they're a very trusted resource): "Reyes has no obvious flaws in his repertoire."
Why? Why? Why?

by sdangler on Mar 10, 2006 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I'm hoping that they are focusing on it during spring training as they feel he's the #5 and want another pitch, but I have concerns over messign with him too much before he is established.

I also saw this on the mlb.com site:
"He got quick outs because he left a lot of balls at the top of the strike zone, and that's what everybody wants to swing at. Luckily he got away with it. In April you don't get away with those." -- Duncan on Ponson

I hope I am not inviting bad karma by openly rooting against Ponson in favor of Reyes for the #5 starter and in favor of Wainwright for the long relief role.

by BozCardsFanSF on Mar 10, 2006 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tony and Duncan

Their reputation for not developing many young stud pitchers and thier penchant for improving veteran pitchers lends itself to this rigid ideology. The vets have had their repetoire for some time, and Tony and Dunc add preparation and the preaching of the two-seamer to make them better. This, however probably doesn't work as well with youngsters, who by forcing them to conform negates their natural skill set, a la the Jason Kidd example. Interesting.

by mdarshan on Mar 10, 2006 12:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

reyes

He gave up 13 homers in 128 AAA innings at Memphis and there is concern that many long flyball triple A outs will turn into major league home runs. At St. Louis last year Reyes had a groundball:flyball ration of 11:18 which comes out to a .61 ratio.

In comparison, the other Redbird starters were:
Carpenter 1.98
Marquis 1.59
Mulder 2.74
Suppan 1.43.

Reyes will have to get his flyball ratio down to be successful. But it seems like the Cardinal front office could have figured this out a while back, at least last season.

by acr on Mar 10, 2006 12:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the PCL is a hitter's league

a lot of the teams play at altitude --- albuquerque, salt lake, las vegas, colorado springs, tucson --- and we've all seen at coors field what altitude does to HR rates.

13 dingers in 128 innings in the PCL is very good

by lboros on Mar 10, 2006 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am often critical...

...but in this case:

Reyes started working on this 2-seamer last spring and used it sparingly during the season. I can't find the story yet, but TL/DD told him he needed to work on it most in the off-season and spring training to get to the point of getting more comfortable. The whole point was to have another pitch to make his 4-seamer stuff more effective, to not let major leaguers sit on his high stuff...it was not to make him change his "out" pitch.

Their main job is to keep his confidence up while he works on a new pitch. He just needs to feel that this is not going to "make or break" his chances at the rotation, but to give him what he needs to be the best he can be over the long haul of his career.

Next year is the key year because we'll be lucky to keep 2 of the top 4 hurlers. I'm okay with TL/DD trying to make this kid the best he can be for the long haul...even if it means taking a small step backwards for part of this year.

"Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind." -Dr. Seuss

by thinktank on Mar 10, 2006 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

that's tony/dave's approach

but i think it's too careful, too cautious.

i'd rather they just throw the kid out there and tell him to trust his stuff and throw strikes --- while still working with him to grow as a pitcher.

at this point in his career they should be letting him show what he CAN do, not telling him what he HAS to do.

by lboros on Mar 10, 2006 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's more of a reason

to have him working on another pitch while at Memphis instead of trying that now.

How many successful fly ball pitchers are there in the majors these days anyway? Maybe a half dozen at the most? We don't need another Eric Milton in the NL Central. And Reyes' .61 ratio is actually about the same as Eric Milton's and Scott Elarton's 2005 numbers. Milton led the NL with 40 homers allowed and Elarton allowed 32 in the AL. Incredibly, it was more than Jose Lima allowed.

by acr on Mar 10, 2006 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Johan Santana

is a fly-ball pitcher, though his overpowering stuff keeps the K-rate high and runners off the basepaths.

I agree with the sentiments that it's time to let Reyes go out there and pitch in the major leagues. IMO, the only way he will further develop at this point is to refine his talent and approach against major-leaguers. If he eventually needs another pitch in his ensemble, so be it --- but I don't think he will be able to optimally develop his ensemble in AAA.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Mar 10, 2006 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

c'mon acr

first of all, reyes pitched 10 innings at st louis last year; you're not seriously comparing him to elarton / milton based on that, are you?

second of all, you've got the wrong reyes. the "a reyes" with the 0.61 g/f ratio was AL reyes --- st louis' best relief pitcher last year, with a 2.15 era and a 0.93 era. no milton or elarton, he.

the "a reyes" pitching for a spot in the 2006 rotation had a g/f of 0.75 in his limited time last season -- identical to that of his ex-teammate mark prior, who is considered a pretty good pitcher by some observers. ben sheets also had a 0.75 g/f last year. jason schmidt was at 0.81 --- admittedly an off year for him (12-7, 4.40), but the g/f was no different from his good seasons. minnesota ace johan santana was at 0.89.

they're not all milton and elarton down at the end of the g/f spectrum. and marquis and morris weren't exactly aces, despite their high g/f ratios.

by lboros on Mar 10, 2006 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not sure where you are getting your stats

Here is the Anthony Reyes stats page on ESPN

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6225

11:18 gb:fb for a 0.61 ratio and in 13.1 innings. So either they are all wrong or I have the right A Reyes. I think the stat you are talking about is GO/FO which does not account for the 2 homers Reyes gave up.

Al Reyes stats page is below:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3169

He has a similar gb:fb ratio to Reyes. But he has the benefit of being a relief pitcher. He does not have to face a lineup 2-3 times during a game. He certainly had some nice stats but his numbers across the board nearly double from pitches 16-30. And his ERA against hitters the second time they saw him in 2005 was 36.00.

I trust what Ron Shandler writes and he had this to say about Anthony Reyes:
"1-1, 2.70 ERA in 14 IP at STL. Dominating stuff and tons of potential. Extreme FB tendency, though a small sample, bears watching and could be a concern. Big upside."

by acr on Mar 10, 2006 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i am looking at go:fo

not gb/fb. that explains it. sorry.

i think we both agree with shandler; the question is which parts we focus on. i see "dominating stuff" and "tons of potential" and "big upside" and think --- sounds great, can't wait to see what he can do. which is why i'm frustrated by tlr/dave's approach.

you see "extreme fb tendency . . . could be a concern" and feel like tony/dave are only being prudent.

time will tell, eh?

by lboros on Mar 10, 2006 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

However a person slices it, we have a top flight prospect in the syatem who will be pitching for the Cardinals. So that is always nice.

by acr on Mar 10, 2006 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Contrast this with Marquis, though

The opposite could be said of Jason, whom Duncan told to lay off the funky pitches and concentrate on his bread-and-butter sinker/fastball combo.

I think this is actually a very strong vote of confidence in young Anthony that he will be able to add to his repertoire, unlike, say, certain veterans of the Atlanta pitching system.

I would also add that Duncan has seen an awful lot of pitchers over the years. Perhaps he has seen this pattern before, and is simply nipping it in the bud before Reyes becomes a middle-aged ex-baseball player.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 10, 2006 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you mean like

rick ankiel?

by lboros on Mar 10, 2006 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

speaking of ankiel

hows he doing in ST? i havent heard anything

by punchinjudy on Mar 10, 2006 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nursing a sore wheel.

I'm guessing he'll appear again in another 4 days to a week.

The cynical part of me says Ankiel will never get anywhere as a major leaguer -- injury and bad luck stopping him every time -- and that this whole Reyes debate is moot since he'll be traded within a year anyway.

The non-cynical part of me will continue to hope for the best, and is excited since I'll see our Birds live 3 times next week, twice against the Yank-offs. If I meet up with LaRussa or Dunc during happy hour somewhere, I'll pass along this group's advice to them.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 10, 2006 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thats

funny about giving advice to tony and dunc...if they listen their days in MLB are done..

by punchinjudy on Mar 10, 2006 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Excellent, just excellent

Totally agree with your premise.

May be the best example of why TLR and Dunc don't seem to be able to develop YOUNG pitchers.

by robster on Mar 10, 2006 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Could not be more wrong

I guess I am in the minority, but I disagree with you wholeheartedly.

First, regardless of what we all think we know, I am willing to give a great deal of deference to TRL and Duc. How many pitchers have we seen come into STL or OAK with nothing, only to have those two work some magic and turn the pitcher into a 15 game winner? Most of those pitchers, when the leave, go back to being very average or below average. Sorry, I will take the advice of these two guys and their experience over a 24-year-old pitcher with 4 games of major league experience.

Second, most of your examples of guys that have gotten by throwing the high heat are relievers. You can do that for an inning or two sure. Over the course of 5-6 innings though, batters will make adjustments to their timing. If you would like Reyes to be a closer or middle reliever, stick with your "throw it high and hard" plan. Otherwise, let's work on getting safe outs in a number of ways.

Third, as for the "success" of Reyes so far -- at best he's been successful at the high school, college and minor league level. That is absolutely no indication that he will be successful at the major league level. I certainly hope we have all been watching baseball long enough to know that minor league success is no guarantee of major league success. Not only that, I would argue with the "success" that Anthony had at college. His ERA was in the high 3's or 4's most of his career. His whip was consistently around 1.3. In other words, he was a fine pitcher, but not one I would defer to about how to get players out on the major league level.

In sum, seems like the smart move is to take TRL/Duc's advice and learn a new pitch. If Reyes then wants to experiment with the high heat in games, and has success, he'll get away with it and keep it up. If he experiments and gets burned, he has something else to turn to. If he keeps experimenting and getting burned, he'll lose his job ala Garret Stevenson. Works for me.

by Westy on Mar 11, 2006 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs