muttering at midday

by lboros on Feb 8, 2006 1:55 PM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

midday musing --

tom verducci at sports illustrated lists his top 10 breakout pitching candidates. one is aj burnett; ouch. another is dan haren; double ouch.

guess we'll have to seek solace in the glowing reports about mark mccormick in derrick goold's blog. granted, the report is from a biased source -- mccormick's former college coach at baylor, steve smith -- but it's still nice to hear, from any source, that the kid can throw 96 and that the ball is "easy out of his hand." mccormick will prob'y start the season at palm beach in high class a, according to goold; we can surmise that a strong performance there will earn him a trip to double a springfield by the end of the summer, and likely a spring-training invite to jupiter in 2007. if all goes well he's competing for a spot in the rotation (with pedro astacio or eric milton) by the spring of 2008.

another stl farmhand pitcher, adam wainwright (and here's a biased glowing report on him), has some impressive comps per baseball prospectus' PECOTA. rick rhoden sits atop this list of analogous players; 151-game winner, two-time all-star. in 16 big-league seasons, also a hell of a golfer. #2 is three-time all-star rick aguilera, a successful starter who became a very successful closer. #3 is ralph terry, a top-of-rotation starter for the champ'ship yankee teams of the early 1960s. daryl kile is #19 on this list . . . .

anthony reyes' most similar pitcher is pedro's older brother, ramon martinez; i'd take that. #3 is don wilson; that'd be okay, too. the list is brimming with former all-stars: art mahaffey, don gullett, scott sanderson, greg swindell. #15 is former world series mvp josh beckett; #16 is tom seaver.

that'd be alright.

oh, and this guy is #13 on the list. . .

a while back, la russa mused that so taguchi might emerge as the cards' primary left fielder, inspiring little confidence among the faithful. today on bernie's show he apparently hinted that juancion may bat second. tlr's like the rest of us during the off-season, bored and liable to say just about anything to pass the time; but i don't think he's just muttering idly on this one. don't forget, this is a manager who used to routinely fill the #2 slot with guys like craig paquette (.274 career obp) and shawon dunston (.296); so encarnacion's comparatively robust .316 obp may well prove irresistible to tony.

may god please grant junior spivey a hot bat this spring . . . . .

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after seeing

VEB's breakdown on Jimmy in the 5 hole rather than the 2 spot, I'll be happy with anyone BUT Jim hitting behind eck. Conversely, Matt Leach DOES like Jim in the second spot. Lets hope TLR reads VEB and not Leach.

Personally, I like hearing guch's name in the mix. I think he has earned a chance. It drove me nuts watching him on the bench in the postseason while Walker flailed helplessly, hacking away at the plate.

As far as our missed opportunities regarding the pitching staff, that's a story as old as Yadier Molina.

Go Cards!

by stash3630 on Feb 8, 2006 2:29 PM EST reply actions

actually

i agree with leach --- i think edmonds should bat 2d. per this post:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/1/12/95152/8619

it was hummingbird who made the case for edmonds as a #5 hitter; read here:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/1/4/102741/0689

by lboros on Feb 8, 2006 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

interesting...

my mistake. You both make excellent cases, but I feel 5 spot JEd's numbers are hard to ignore. Maybe it's my fondness for edmonds getting in the way. Reading Leach's article today about the impending end of his contract literally made my stomach curl.

by stash3630 on Feb 8, 2006 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

Harren

Hes my pick for the AL Cy Young next year

by Zubin on Feb 8, 2006 3:12 PM EST reply actions

Only way Haren wins is if

Santana, Halladay, Harden, Colon, and Buehrle all get injured while Haren stays OK because all are significantly better than Haren. Hell, I might even take Felix Hernandez (but innings might hamper), Liriano or Verlander over Haren, maybe even Lackey. Is Haren a good pitcher? Yes. Is he a Cy Young candidate? No.

Don't say he'll progress much faster with age because Santana is a whole year older than him, same for Buehrle, Harden is a year younger, Halladay is 28. The "oldest" guy on the list is Colon at 32.

A diamond is just a lump of coal that performed well under pressure

by joker24 on Feb 8, 2006 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

Don't forget

Zito, or possibly a resurgent Big Unit

by Valatan on Feb 8, 2006 10:44 PM EST up reply actions

Big Unit

Don't get me wrong I'm a huge RJ fan but resurgent at 42/43...I don't see that happening. He'll be good in the W/L department because the Yankees score 13 runs a game but his other numbers will be more like that of a 2-3 starter not a Cy Young winner.

by azruavatar on Feb 8, 2006 11:07 PM EST up reply actions

say it ain't so, tony. say it ain't so.

thanks for the blurb about tlr liking juancion in the 2 hole. that's good info. color me as one of the dis-spirtied when i read that leach said something about so being the leading candidate going into st. i like gooch as much as the next guy (exaggeration), but i don't want to see him everyday. especailly slapping weak ground balls the other way at about a .270 clip (assuming he replicates last year - which he won't).

and i completely disagree with what leach said about liking jimmy ballgame in the 2 hole. strikes out too much. we need a contact hitter up there. leach says it's better to strike out than ground into a double-play. that's your argument? brutha please...

amen to your plea of junior having a good spring.

by busch league on Feb 8, 2006 3:21 PM EST reply actions

That warn't no .270 last year

out of the Gooch...it was a .288, and a .291 the year before. Not a huge difference, but still, if you're gonna knock the guy, at least knock him on based on what he's done ...

Gooch is a serviceable fourth outfielder, but he doesn't hit lefties well enough to even be a semi-regular platoon mate...and as a starter? Blech.

As for JEd in the two spot, I e-mailed to Leach JEd's splits for the past three years in the 2-through-5 spots...and while I considered "sample size" caveats, his 200-point drop in OPS in more than 300 plate appearances batting 2nd suggests more than a fluke...

by salvomania on Feb 8, 2006 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

i think sample size explains

at least part of those splits, for this reason: most of edmonds' plate appearances from the #2 hole from 2002-05 came last season, when edmonds' lead shoulder was killing him. that drags down his overall numbers as a #2 hitter; he wasn't healthy most of the time he batted there.

in fact, it may be that tony moved edmonds to #2 because he wasn't healthy --- jimmy couldn't turn on a pitch and drive it, so tony took him out of an rbi slot and put him in a get-on-base slot.

by lboros on Feb 8, 2006 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

good grief, dude....

the batting average wasn't the point of the argument; hence the "about a .270 clip." i didn't look up his stats as i didn't care enough about the actual number. the point is that he's got no pop in the bat, likely to drop in average and isn't someone i want to see every day. i think he serves us well in the role he played last year.

great name though. which is another reason i don't want to see him play everyday because every time he comes to the plate, my girlfriend - in her best valleygirl voice - says "oh-my-gosh, he is sssooooo taguchi!" talking about ruining a buzz....

by busch league on Feb 8, 2006 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry for picking nits

Sometimes I just can't help myself...maybe I should just try a little harder.

by salvomania on Feb 8, 2006 7:18 PM EST up reply actions

Ks

I don't see how Spivey's more of a contact hitter than Jim E. He K's a ton. Jimmy's just more valuable in the 5 hole in my opinion. I am campaigning for Spivey in the 2 hole as he is the most desirable of the undesirable options for 2 hitter.

by planet pujolsian on Feb 8, 2006 5:39 PM EST up reply actions

Look, Tony's gonna

jiggle the lineup all season long, so I wouldn't get too worried about what he says the batting order might be in early February.

Given decent health, the 3-4-5 slots will be filled by Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen... giving TLR the left-right-left he likes to confuzzle opposing managers' penchants for reliefers. (TLR likes LOOGYs so much, he thinks everybody ought to have to use them!)

I 'spect the 2-hole will be filled by a number of guys, probably including Bigbie, Spivey, and Juancion.

by The Ol Goaler on Feb 8, 2006 3:40 PM EST reply actions

Agreed.

The 2 hole will be as consistent as our starting OF and 2b. You can add J-rod and Miles to that list if they make the team. sigh.

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Feb 9, 2006 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

Wainwright's comps

You mentioned that Adam's Wainwright's #1 comp Rick Rhoden was a crack golfer, but did you know that the #3 comp, Ralph Terry, ALSO went on to play professional golf? Now that's weird.

by Perry on Feb 8, 2006 4:00 PM EST reply actions

i did not know that

thanks for the info. i wonder what wainwright's handicap is . . . ?

by lboros on Feb 8, 2006 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

Well

He was 95th on the 2004 EGU-Ping Order of Merit.

I think he slipped to 119th as of last May though when I assume he came back to the States to play baseball.

by STLEdge on Feb 8, 2006 5:22 PM EST reply actions

comps

broglio - i'll take that as a good omen

by johnstjc @ Viva El Birdos on Feb 8, 2006 7:59 PM EST reply actions

My best arguments for Edmonds in the 2 hole

go like this. First, he's an on-base machine. Batting average caveats aside, you gotta love him standing on first when Pujols or Rolen come up. Makes 'em harder to pitch around and more valuable when they see fastballs down the plate. Second (and more important, I think) he'll see so many more plate appearances. And who doesn't want to see 15 more?

Visit Cork, Ireland!

by gbrusca on Feb 8, 2006 8:10 PM EST reply actions

Eckstein and Edmonds

lboros, this thread reminded me how fascinating I found your Eckstein analysis. Worth going back to look at again for anyone who doesn't recall it. Small sample size or not, it's pretty powerful evidence that he's just a better hitter when he's got a threat behind him. My intinct tells me that threat has to be Edmonds. Even if Spivey or Bigbie or Encarnacion defies expectations and starts hitting like an All-Star, I'm not sure they'll strike the fear in pitchers that lboros hypothesizes is central to Eckstein's success.

Hummingbird may also be right -- namely, that Edmonds hits better in the #5 slot -- but my instinct says something's missing. I'd love to see some additional breakdowns -- say, separating out his performance in the 2, 3 and 4 holes and/or looking at who's hitting ahead or or behind him. (Not that you have anything better to do, Hum.)

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Feb 9, 2006 9:11 AM EST reply actions

I think

there was a typo. You forgot to add a "d" to your pick for AL Cy Young. It isn't Haren but Harden.

by wcheuk on Feb 9, 2006 9:46 AM EST reply actions

Tom Ver-who?

Didn't he call Burnett the most overvalued a couple weeks ago? Does SI still even have a magazine department anymore?

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Feb 9, 2006 6:36 PM EST reply actions

more on why Tom Verducci sucks

Feb. 7 BREAKOUT PITCHERS article

6. A.J. Burnett, 29, Blue Jays
It's hard to believe that someone with his stuff hasn't won more than 12 games in a season. He's in a perfect spot to bust loose: reunited with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, slotted behind ace Roy Halladay and backed by a stable bullpen.

November 22 Bargains and Busts article

1. A.J. Burnett, 29, RHP
Watch Burnett throw and it's easy to see why teams are throwing five-year offers at him. Premier power arms like Burnett just don't get on the open market very often. Now the bad news: he is 49-50 with a 3.73 ERA for his career, and has made 30 starts in a season only once. Take him away from the spacious alleys of Dolphins Stadium and there's even less to like about him: 15-23 with a 4.02 ERA on the road over the past four seasons. And what happens to those numbers if he switches to the AL? Burnett could be either Jason Schmidt or Carl Pavano. At about $60 million, you'd like a little more certainty than that.

And no Burnett was not the number one bargain.

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Feb 9, 2006 6:43 PM EST up reply actions

McCormick

I went to see McCormick late this season when QC played Cedar Rapids (Angels). His fastball was clocking 96 with regularity, and I remember seeing it hit 98 on the gun, if memory serves me correctly.

Problem was he walked 3 batters and hit (OUCH!) 3 batters that game. He's got the stuff, but was wild. Another thing is he's got a good curve ball, but he only threw it 2 times. Everything else was fastball, fastball, fastball. I think I may have counted 4 change ups and 2 curves. Both curves were to finish off a batter.

I also saw Stavinoha at that game, I won't get into it now, maybe another time, but he seems like the real deal.

Play a Hard 9

by erik on Feb 10, 2006 10:37 AM EST reply actions