encarnacion projection results

by lboros on Feb 13, 2006 3:46 PM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

only 38 responses to the call for encarnacion projections. here's what we came up with:

	avg	obp	slg	hr	rbi	r	sb
VEB community	.277	.333	.451	19	79	70	11
ZIPS	.284	.342	.450	16	88	70	8
PECOTA	.273	.329	.439	15	67	65	7
bill james	.265	.323	.430	16	69	62	8
ron shandler	.270	.321	.433	16	72	61	7

now that's interesting. here's the guy i figured would be the easiest to project of all our candidates so far, and we aren't particularly close to either ZIPS or PECOTA. right in between'm. ZIPS agrees with us re juancion's power production, and PECOTA concurs re his on-base ability. if anybody can post the bill james / ron shandler projections, i would sure be curious what those look like.

Update [2006-2-13 16:31:23 by lboros]: the bill james projections have been added to the chart; they not pretty. thanks to farley 503 for the info.

Update [2006-2-13 17:45:22 by lboros]: and thanks to acr for the ron shandler numbers --- nearly identical to james'.

i need some feedback from you re the community projection trope. first of all -- are we still digging this exercise, or is it time to give it a rest? i ask because the results post from the last projection (molina's) drew 0 comments, and the current projection drew the fewest reponses of any. i'm happy to keep doing it as long as we have enough interested parties, but if it's getting old, i won't keep inflicting this on the blogiverse. 2d question: if we are still digging it and want to keep doing it, then who do you wanna project next?

nl central reading shelf: aaron gleeman susses out the reds' new gm; john sickels rates the cubs' top 20 prospects (surprise! felix pie ain't #1); dan fox writes about chicago's holes at ss and lf and the young players vying to fill them; and baseball prospectus thinks the brewers' acquisition of corey koskie is subtraction by addition.

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Comments

Keeping going!

I suggest Eckstein, Suppan, and Izzy, in that order.

by PhatAlbert on Feb 13, 2006 3:56 PM EST reply actions

I think

it would be spelled "blogoverse." That is, if it were a word.

Visit Cork, Ireland!

by gbrusca on Feb 13, 2006 4:09 PM EST reply actions

Bill James is a hater.

James' Encarnacion Projection:

.265 .323 .430 16hr 69rbi 62r 8sb

Ick.

by farley503 on Feb 13, 2006 4:10 PM EST reply actions

The James projection takes park effect

into consideration, and used Dolphins Stadium for half of the games. I'd bet the projection for Enc '06 would be a bit higher if it considered Enc's new digs of Busch III.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Feb 13, 2006 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

Spivey

would be a great subject.

For Eckstein, Suppan and Izzy (not trying to seem too critical) I can pretty much predict EXACTLY what the gang will project:

--Eck will come down a little from last year's highs (90-95 OPS+)...

--Suppan, likewise (100ish ERA+)

--Izzy will be about the same (140-180 ERA+, with 7-to-9 K/9), only X-factor is health

These three guys have more or less performed within a certian range, and the numbers we'd generate would probably be in sync the same way they were, more or less, with most people's guesses for Juanc.

But a guy like Spivey---our projected starter at 2nd---has been up-down-up-down...from a monster All-Star season in '02 to a huge drop in '03, to a bit of a resurrection in '04, to another drop in '05...

Do we get the All-Star? The dud? WHO KNOWS??!!??

Regarding the responses, boros, I think for a lot of people the interest is in the exercise itself, then in seeing the results, and how one's guesses stack up to the "herd." I, for one, would enjoy seeing projections performed for some of the more intriguing (or less consistent) subjects, rather than for guys like Carp (who we all know should be pretty good, with some dropoff from '05) or Pujols (591 ab, etc.).

by salvomania on Feb 13, 2006 5:02 PM EST reply actions

Shandler's ICN stat projections

AB's 503
runs: 61
HIts: 138
HR: 16
RBI: 72
SB: 7
Avg: 270
OBP: .321
SLG: .433
OPS: .753

Plus he adds this blurb:
"LD% increased from 16% to 24%. Guess what? BA improved by 51 points. Otherwise, his BPIs remain rock steady so expect more of the same."

by acr on Feb 13, 2006 5:30 PM EST reply actions

I still dig it

The community projections have been fun ... I do think Salvo's on to something, though. They are more interesting when the subject is a little more unpredictable or arouses more debate. Mulder was a great one b/c everyone here seems to have strong opinions about the guy - especially about whether he can keep winning 15+ games/season given his declining peripherals. Rolen also sparked interest b/c there's genuine concern and uncertainty about whether he comes back at 100% or as damaged goods.

In that light, I'd like us to tackle some of the mystery men. Spivey is a good suggestion, and Bigbie would be fascinating as well, for similar reasons.

by DCRedbird on Feb 13, 2006 5:59 PM EST reply actions

Another idea...

If we want to do an interesting projection for Albert (just to let us dream a little), let's do a career projection ... Suggested categories:

-Seasons/Games/plate appearances
-avg/obp/slg
-hits, hrs, rbis, runs, stolen bases
-Gold Gloves
-MVPs
-World Series rings...

by DCRedbird on Feb 13, 2006 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

FWIW

The Bill James Handbook had Pujols' career stats at 2,507 RBIs, 3,845 hits, a .325 career average and 830 homers.

by acr on Feb 13, 2006 7:26 PM EST up reply actions

Yikes!

Be still my heart. God, let that all be with Birds 'n' Bat on his chest.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 13, 2006 8:16 PM EST up reply actions

HA

830 HRs. That'd be awesome.

Cheers, Alex Fritz

by Alxfritz on Feb 13, 2006 9:02 PM EST up reply actions

More relevant to NL central news

While I am increasingly dubious of ESPN content, Jayson Starks' column on MLB's 25 biggest innovations in the last 25 years is must read material as much as for what you'll disagree with as for what you agree with:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2329027

Of particular note to veteran VEBers - #3 and at least two specific el birdo player references.

by sdesserman on Feb 13, 2006 6:00 PM EST reply actions

I like the projections

Maybe the response to Encarnacion was slow b/c everyone seemed to know what to expect. With Mulder, Edmonds, etc., they're critical pieces who could be sliding backward. I think Spivey is a good suggestion b/c we don't know what we're going to get from this former All-Star. I really think Marquis would be good as well. He seems to be a lot more important this year w/ Morris gone. It's time he stepped up. I think a lot of people believe that he's ready to do that but a lot of others think it'll be the same old, same old w/ him. Marquis would provoke a lot of good discussion IMO.

by chuckb on Feb 13, 2006 6:08 PM EST reply actions

I'll agree that it's more fun

To take our shots at the less predictable players.

And for those convinced of Mulder's imminent decline ... how many more 15-win seasons would he have to have before we just agree that he's an outlier?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 13, 2006 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

projections

Not sure I agree that we aren't all that close to ZIPS or PECOTA. Other than the HR and SB, we do a pretty good job of splitting the difference between the two. The most striking difference to me was how far ZIPS and PECOTA are from each other on RBI, though that might be explained in part by a different assumption on batting order. Or maybe the ZIPS guys just had a brain cramp.

I'm up for one more round, and I'm with those who suggest we opt for a less predictable sort. Anthony Reyes comes to mind. Spivey, Marquis also good suggestions.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Feb 13, 2006 8:49 PM EST reply actions

Can we project how many times FSN conducts a locker room interview with Edmonds while he's wearing a half-shirt?

I say six times.

Cheers, Alex Fritz

by Alxfritz on Feb 13, 2006 9:05 PM EST reply actions

I'll take the over

by bellyscratcher on Feb 13, 2006 9:21 PM EST up reply actions

Player Projections

I enjoy these player projections very much. I was surprised to see how accurate (or fairly accurate) ZIPS and PECOTA have been over the past few seasons. Are there any comparisons to the VEB projections? How close have they been to the actual stats since they've been run?

by SethWestern on Feb 13, 2006 9:55 PM EST reply actions

Additional Cardinal Income

There's a blurb in the Business section of the Chicago Tribune today that U.S. Cellular is paying the Cards $5m to be their "official wireless provider" and sponsoring a kids park at the new stadium.

Hopefully this will help dig DeWitt out of our terrible money hole.

by sdrone on Feb 13, 2006 10:02 PM EST reply actions

projections

i think we are overly optimistic about encarnacion

he could be a very expensive backup.

i hope he surprises us.

by 2ndprize on Feb 13, 2006 11:58 PM EST reply actions

Please do continue...

nothing else is going on anyway, and I've enjoyed indulging in some rarely-displayed optimism. Once the season starts I'll revert back to my doom beclouded self every time they drop a series. I also agree with Salvo and DCR--Spivey or Bigbie should be next because question marks abound.

by rockin redbird on Feb 14, 2006 1:10 AM EST reply actions

I'd say Spivey over Bigbie

as the latter will have playing time be the big factor in determining his stats

by Valatan on Feb 14, 2006 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

agreed

I like the projections and like rockin said, nothing else to talk about really. As far as J'Ed goes, I'm sort of turning a blind eye to that situation. With all the question marks in the foreground, I think I'll just save my Edmonds worries for down the road That said keep up the good work; you have loads of ravenous followers.

Next: Spivey or Carp

by stash3630 on Feb 14, 2006 2:09 AM EST up reply actions