go with the kids
by lboros on Dec 7, 2006 8:53 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printalthough jason schmidt remains unsigned in an official sense, for all intents and purposes he's gone. the cardinals never had a realistic shot at him to begin with; he wanted to stay on the west coast and was never serious about going anywhere else. credit the hendricks brothers for a good job of agenting; they induced the cardinals and cubs to make serious offers, drove up the bidding, and ended up with the deal they wanted from the team they wanted. well played, gents.
as for the cards, they haven't really lost anything; schmidt never was theirs to lose. i would have loved to see him come to st louis; he'd have been the true #2 jocketty has long sought. but with him and zito bound elsewhere, there are no #2-type arms left on the free-agent market; just very expensive rotation filler. but don't despair; there are pitchers available who are capable of playing big roles in the 2007 rotation. they're already on the roster; their names are wainwright and reyes.
erik already wrote a long, detailed analysis of wainwright on sunday and established that adam's a safe bet to succeed as a starting pitcher. (here's another post about wainwright, now nearly a year old, from yours truly.) so i'll spend my time here on reyes, whom i think we've all been selling a little short this off-season. he's penciled in as a #4 or #5 starter, but reyes has way more upside than that --- as his game 1 win in the series attests. reyes has been the organization's #1 prospect (and a top-100 prospect in all of baseball) for two years running; his minor-league numbers have always suggested that he has front-of-rotation potential. but he pitched below his abilities for much of 2006. even so, as i pointed out ad nauseum during the summer and fall, reyes ranked 2d among the 7 st louis starting pitchers in k/9, k/bb, whip, and opponent average; only carpenter was better. reyes also had the rotation's 3d-best era --- he was better than weaver, ponson, marquis, and mulder. and although he finished the year with a 5.06 era, that's misleading; before the ill-advised short-rest start la russa forced him to make on the last day of the season --- a game reyes wasn't even told he would pitch until he arrived at the ballpark --- the rookie compiled a 5-7 record with a 4.68 era.
for a lot of reasons, we can expect him to pitch better in 2007. for one thing, he won't be throwing the two-seamer under duress next year. more important, he won't be getting yanked back and forth between the majors and minors; a little rhythm and consistency might go a long way toward settling this performer. a 12- to 15-win season with an era in the low 4.00s lies well within reyes' range of ability. just think back to danny haren, who in his first year as a full-time big leaguer went 14-12 with a 3.73 era. the previous season, haren had gone 3-3 with a 4.50 era for st louis in 46 innings --- and posted a 4.15 era in the minor leagues. reyes pitched better than that last year; there's no reason to think he can't step forward in the same fashion haren did.
let's compare reyes' 2006 stats (again, leaving off the last game of the year) to those of some prominent free-agent pitchers --- the main candidates to come in as a #2 or #3 starter for st louis. jeff weaver's numbers in this table are for st louis only:
| ERA | whip | k/9 | w/9 | k/bb | opp avg |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| schmidt | 3.59 | 1.26 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | .239 |
| padilla | 4.50 | 1.38 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | .268 |
| reyes | 4.68 | 1.33 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 2.1 | .249 |
| woody | 3.65 | 1.29 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | .271 |
| lilly | 4.31 | 1.43 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | .259 |
| meche | 4.48 | 1.43 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | .258 |
| weaver | 5.18 | 1.50 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | .297 |
| eaton | 5.12 | 1.57 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | .299 |
| suppan | 4.12 | 1.45 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | .279 |
| wolf | 5.56 | 1.69 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 1.3 | .283 |
| redman | 5.71 | 1.59 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .300 |
the pitchers are ranked here by k/bb ratio; reyes ranks 3d among the 11 pitchers on this list. he's also 3d in whip, and he's 2d in opponent batting average and 4th in strikeout rate. his era ranks in the middle of the pack. now, these figures aren't park- or league-adjusted, and they're small sample sizes --- just one year's worth of data, a partial year in some cases (including anthony's). but even taking those caveats under advisement --- if all these guys are thought to be #3-type starters, why is reyes considered a #4 or #5? some will point to his durability, but he threw 170 innings last year between st louis and memphis, plus another 12 in the postseason. and, perhaps most important, he pitched extremely well in big games against tough competition --- not just game 1 of the world series, but also sept 27 vs san diego, and aug 10 vs the reds, and of course the 1-hitter he threw vs the white sox in june. he held his own in game 4 of the nlcs against the mets, pitching for the first time in 15 days.
so i would submit that the #2 might already be on the roster --- just as he was two off-seasons ago, in the person of dan haren. the cards missed that opportunity, but they can learn from the experience. reyes and wagonmaker are both power pitchers with high k/9 and k/bb figures, and both now have a proven ability to pitch well in the postseason; isn't that the profile the cards have been shopping for on the f.a. market? it would be a reasonable option, if you ask me, to wade back into the shallow end of the free-agent / trade pool and fish out one more reliable arm --- batista, kris benson, somebody of that caliber --- to round out the rotation. you'd have carp as a #1, and then the other four (reyes wainwright wells and, let's say, batista) would sort themselves out over the course of the season; somebody would emerge out of that group as a 15-game winner with a sub-4.00 era. the cards already have narveson and brad thompson available as fill-in starters if anybody goes down, and hancock also can start; if the team runs short of innings at midseason, they can always find another jeff weaver on the trade market.
and, oh yeah, there's always (cough) looper . . . . . .
if the cardinals insist on leaving wainwright in the bullpen, then another option, almost as attractive, would be to sign batista and add tomo ohka or tony armas. the cards can probably get two guys of that caliber for less money than the dodgers had to spend on jason schmidt. the cards also still have the chance to land somebody like kris benson in a trade. the pirates' deal for adam la roche has fallen through, so they're still looking for a lh slugger; maybe duncan for duke could still happen. the tim hudson option is probably gone now that the braves have dealt away horatio ramirez; no loss. much as mulder got outpitched by haren in 2005-06, there's a good chance that hudson will get outpitched by reyes and wainwright from this point forward.
in october, la russa wisely and bravely put his faith in the kids --- wainwright kinney and tyjo --- over the high-priced veteran free agent, ie looper. for more than a year the cardinals have been saying, in word and deed, that they're going to make a greater commitment to player development in the future --- promote from within, trust the young players who come up through the ranks, win or lose with'm. might as well get started on that project right now. a rotation of carpenter, batista, reyes, wainwright, and wells is a viable option --- maybe the cards' best for 2007.
p.s. --- for more in this vein, see red baron's diary. great minds think alike . . .
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At This Point
I am disappointed by Schmidt but I am getting over it. I thought from the get go that he was going to the Dodgers. Batista will do fine if not over paid.
I think we need strengthen our bullpen so we can give breathing room for our young guys. I would like us to overpay for potential at this point.
- Dotel and Gagne stick out to me the most. Dotel will be in his 2nd year after surgery. The year when most pitchers get their full stuff back. I read over at BP that they think Gagne will get a deal similiar to Wood's base 1.75 plus incentives up to $5 mil.
If we did this we would also have a surplus of bullpen people which we could trade for whatever. Mix and match for a starter, prospects, whatever...
I can think...
"His" name
It's so easy
by vince eating tarp on Dec 7, 2006 9:02 AM EST reply actions
Reyes moves higher on the list...
Reyes projects a lower ERA and better K:BB ratio than everyone one the list other than Schmidt...even if you add Zito to the list.
Additionally, he actually projects to have a better WHiP than Schmidt.
Wainer isn't quite as high, but still comes in 4th.
Ya...
James seems to be about the only system up and out for 2007.
At this point...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 7, 2006 9:21 AM EST reply actions
not possible for Suppan
He's 44-26 over the last 3 seasons with some huge playoff performances to boot. All it takes is one idiot GM to screw things up, and in case you haven't noticed, there are more than a few idiot GMs out there.
We've seen him over the last 3 years - we know what he is: a quality start machine - no more, no less. He was a great signing 3 years ago, but he's way overvalued right now.
You could argue the Cardinals screwed up by not locking him up sooner, but the time to do that is early in the season - and early in the 2006 season Suppan looked like the dog and Mulder and Marquis looked like the keepers - so lets all be thankful Walt didn't sign either of them long-term.
Weaver is a different story. He won't cost as much, and he's got a higher ceiling (and a much lower floor). I'm not sure if he's looking for short-term or a medium-term deal, but we should try and make it work. He's got as high an upside as anyone out there (other than Zito) and he's no less risky than all the other bums.
Mariners...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 7, 2006 9:34 AM EST reply actions
Too bad
As for Weaver, my personal opinion is that we go after Mulder instead. Weaver might show up the critics next season like he did in the playoffs, but I think Mulder's problem was injury and that can be fixed, hopefully it already has. Weaver's problem was his head and we know how hard that is to correct(Marquis).
I will be very happy with Carp, Suppan, Mulder, Reyes, Wells. And if we HAVE to put Wainy in there over Mulder, so be it. He will be good wherever he pitches.
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 7, 2006 9:35 AM EST reply actions
Mulder
Put me down in the "let's sign Mulder" camp as well but only if we can get him on a two year deal at something less than stupid money. Nobody we can sign at this point is top of the rotation material. Can we make it to the playoffs with a rotation of Carp, Reyes, Wainw, Wells, & xxx ? Sure. The NL Central looks weak again. So we need top of the rotation help in the playoffs but not to get there. Mulder could be that guy but he probably is not ready until mid-season. Essentially we are purchasing a lottery ticket to possibily get a top of the rotation guy. He's the only one we can afford. To save money to afford Mulder, let Narveson hold down his rotation spot for league minimum until he is good to go.
Wainright as a starter
Question: Is it possible to front load a deal? Say in Sups case we offer a nice signing bonus (3mil) then say go 10-9-8. That still would be a 3 year 30 mill deal, but the aging player gets cheaper instead of more expensive. Would any player except this?
I would think
Front-loaded deals could be attractive because a free-agent could "cash in" immediately. And if he's a rational human being, he wouldn't get offended by making less in the third year of a contract than in the first. It's all about total value, IMO.
by 26thMan on Dec 7, 2006 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
front loading
If a player cares a lot about the salary number for 2008 (rather than the cash in hand), he could give me the bonus now, and I'd repay him at the end of the 2008 season.
The frustrating part to me....
Last October was great, but the reason it was great is because it is very rare that a mediocre team makes a run comparable to the Cardinals' to win the World Series. This team is still that...mediocre. My point is...I think that all that can be expected(barring a major trade) is another very frustrating regular season and a prayer that the playoff Gods smile on us again.
Sorry to be negative this morning but watching SportsCenter this morning and seeing all of the non-Cardinal signings forced me to roll out of the wrong side of my bed.
Whatever
Oh and we won the World Series with question marks at the starting pitchers.
wow
disagree with your
But those are question marks...
Reyes being billed as our number two is dangerous considering his inconsistency last year. My original post mentioned I was frustrated that may have been misunderstood. That in No Way means I am giving up on Jocketty or this team in 07.
Cubs...
I'm not so sure Bleacher Bum isn't right. We may not have enough to win the division this year (yet). Luckily, I believe in Jocketty, and really this year is gravy for me after the World Series, or I'd be worried. (Ok, I'm a little worried)
offseason improvement
I don't think any of us thought we were gonna be World Series champs with that roster. We thought we'd win the division handily (instead of by a game and a half). We thought maybe we'd squeak through to the NLCS.
So this year's offseason improvement is only Kennedy and Wells. In the crazy market that is free agency right now, we might be better off. Kennedy, while not stellar, is an everyday 2B -- more than we had last year. I'm looking forward to seeing what Dave Duncan does with Wells.
I'll eat these words if it comes to it, but you know the Cubs are going to have some cataclysmic injuries, again; c'mon, they're the Cubs! Lee will get hurt fielding another wild throw from a pitcher. Ramirez will have his nearly-annual August hammy pull. The 2/3rds light-hitting outfield will remain light-hitting (Soriano will do well). It's gonna be fun seeing Ted Lilly's face when he learns what pitching in Wrigley in April is like. And DeRosa will injure himself and Zambrano carrying deer meat up the stairs of his apartment building or something like that. This doesn't even touch the pools for the respective Pryor/Wood first DL assignments in April.
TSF
by TedSimmonsFan on Dec 7, 2006 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
I am WAY curious to see what Lilly
me too...
But is he
by Just Rope Ball on Dec 7, 2006 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
payroll
by jimmybaseball42 on Dec 7, 2006 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Well Said LBoros
If we get Batista, move Wainright in;
Carpenter
Wainright
Reyes
Batista
Wells
(In no paticular order)
I'm of the opinion that Jennings, Westbrook, Burls (are all younger than Schmidt although they don't have the numbers he has) are all true #2's.
That would give us 1 of them to replace Wells, making the 08 Rotation Bad Ass.
If we're going to think ahead a bit (which we now have to do) let's not lock up a mediocre pitcher for 3/4 yrs. How good do you really think Jeff Suppan will be 2-4 yrs from now??????
by El Birdo Rojo on Dec 7, 2006 9:49 AM EST reply actions
Schmidt
by Futility Infielder on Dec 7, 2006 9:49 AM EST reply actions
As a strong proponent of the
THIS ISN'T ABOUT 2007.
It's about building a young, strong champion for 2008 or 2009 or 2010, maybe a team that can win a couple of WSs. And if we can't build around a couple of young promising starters now, when the hell will we ever do it?
Any Rule V news?
Rule V
by Just Rope Ball on Dec 7, 2006 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Cardinals Acquire Jose Contreras!!!!
I hate to introduce this to the comment thread,
Let's Hope that;
A) He's a go between for Leyland (leyland was also seen with jeff boris at a different time) and barry going to the Tigers and not the other way around
B) He's looking for an appearance for A.R.F.
C) Jocketty's denials of Bonds are true and not the typical Jocketty Secrets
by El Birdo Rojo on Dec 7, 2006 9:57 AM EST reply actions
are you kidding?/
by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 7, 2006 10:36 AM EST up reply actions
But, imagine this lineup....
Dunc
Pujols
Bonds
Rolen
Edmonds
Molina
Kennedy
pitcher
Pretty nasty.
by legal dealer on Dec 7, 2006 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
i don't want him on my team
Bonds
Insane Lineup
Someone's gotta use Dave Pinto's line up toy to figure out how many runs this line up would score. I bet it be higher than the '04 Redsox!
I don't care for Barry. I think he's a jerk. I wouldn't vote for him to go to the Hall of Fame.
Without question, however, he would improve our line-up more than any other player who's remotely available.
And, mark my words, we'd go back to back--'06 '07.
Bonds
by Futility Infielder on Dec 7, 2006 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
Good stuff
It's better to save the cash for next years free agents then be hamstrung w/ Weaver/Mech/Soup at 10 mil per for the next 4 years. Just b/c you have it doesn't mean you have to spend it.
I think
I would love to see Narveson get his shot this season, but I also understand that he might be valuable taking a Wainwright type role (or a Daren Oliver type roll for the Mets last season)for the '07 Cardinals as a step toward joining the rotation in '08. Besides, if you put Narveson directly into the rotation, it does compromise some of your pitching depth in case someone gets injured.
Therefore, of the options discussed above I break them down this way:
Weaver
Benson
Batista
Everyone else
The important factor in this case is not locking the club into a long term deal with a poor pitcher. I like the idea of Weaver if Boras could agree on a one year "turn around" deal with the Cards for 1 season. Low risk on the Cards part since it would be only 1 season. Same could be said for a Batista deal for 2 seasons. Benson is the only trade target that I might be interested in, but in trading a few peices here and there, such a Looper. I have no desire to give up anything of value (young pitchers or Duncan) to get him.
Great Post
(Everyone, please read my new diary. It's called EVERYVODY PANIC. It was up really early this morning. I swear.) ;)
Thanks
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
Ain't nothing "little"
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 7, 2006 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks, LB
Wainwright
Wood vs. Wain
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
forgot the rest of my point
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
As far as I know, unlike Wood,
Meche to the Royals...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 7, 2006 10:10 AM EST reply actions
I also agree
octavio
get him
by Birds on the Matt on Dec 7, 2006 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
per mlbtraderumors
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Royals are close to signing righty Gil Meche to a four-year, $45MM deal."
Maybe they are conceding us Batista?
What's with these signings?
THE ROYALS are throwing down over $11MM anually for a starter? I'm guessing this isn't what gets you over the hump, dudes.
by ilillillli on Dec 7, 2006 10:14 AM EST reply actions
Lieber also a potential option
Lieber's salary isn't outrageous
Lilly
it was
lilly gets hurt...rothschild hurts pitchers
lilly gives up flyballs...alfonso soriano's in CF
what part of this makes sense?
by ilillillli on Dec 7, 2006 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
couldn't agree more
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
i was a lilly supporter too
Where the signing really makes sense
Nice.
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
I read an article
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 7, 2006 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
What little I've seen...
And if poor Jim Hendry needed angioplasty at the Winter Meetings... what kinda shape is he gonna be in once he sees the lineup he's put together on the field?
by The Ol Goaler on Dec 7, 2006 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
I've definitely seen worse
SS Izturis
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Jones
RF Pie/Murton
C Barrett
2B Cedeno
It depends on Derreck Lee returning to at least 2004 form (if he returns to 2005 form, watch out), but that is not a bad lineup.
Slug happy
slughappy makes sense in Wrigley
and piniella is a better manager
Baker was a good manager in San Fran
you can't replace them all...
hendry hasn't done a good job constructing the team, imo...
The 2007 Cubs
Jones will play right,
Cards v. Lilly
7IP 4H 0R 0ER 3BB 6SO
against this lineup though:
Grudz
Taguchi
Pujols
Walker
Sanders
Seabol
Mabry
Diaz
Nunez
Interestingly, M. Batista gave up 1 hit in a scoreless 9th to close.
by rmerrill on Dec 7, 2006 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
Kuo
Why did the LaRoche - Pirates deal die?
actually, the braves
Knuckler, anyone?
He cane up last year and got smacked
Yeah, but
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed, BUT
Lieber...
by ilillillli on Dec 7, 2006 10:26 AM EST reply actions
NIce post LB
narvie does not have
we have no evidence that narveson is much better than replacement level (~5.50 era). we do have evidence that reyes and wainwright are considerably better than that.
I agree that
well for $8m you get
that's the difference.
I think thats more like $10M
Bill James projections
PITCHER IP K:BB BR/9 ERA
Schmidt 210 199:80 11.3 3.34
Reyes 142 131:40 11.0 3.61
Zito 218 161:87 12.1 3.76
Wainwright 112 93:34 12.5 4.02
Williams 185 119:53 12.2 4.04
Padilla 202 141:71 13.0 4.23
Wolf 142 114:54 12.7 4.31
Ohka 134 74:38 12.6 4.30
Lilly 182 153:76 12.8 4.35
Batista 206 124:84 13.4 4.37
Redman 176 102:58 13.0 4.40
Weaver 188 123:51 12.8 4.40
Eaton 124 95:43 12.9 4.43
Suppan 206 114:68 12.9 4.46
Meche 176 126:79 13.6 4.76
projected innings
Although Batista looks ok as an innings-eater, I'd rather take a chance on Weaver if the money/ contract length aren't crazy.
Skewed...
Wainwright is only projected at a half-year in the rotation with 15 starts.
I would put more stock in the K:BB ratio and the ERA.
Agreed
On the other hand, whoever greenlighted theh Meche deal must not believe the projections. I'm glad we missed that bandwagon.
Wainwright
You're right about the mechanics issue regarding Kerry Wood. But my feeling is when you have pitcher with that nasty of a breaking ball, you're eventually heading for an injury because that type of pitch puts so much pressure on the elbow. If you watch Wood now, he doesn't throw that nasty breaking ball anymore and isn't just because of his mechanics--it's a pitch that invites injury. But accepting your argument, I still think Wainwright -- at this point -- should be the closer. I wouldn't have said that before the playoffs, but he proved to me he can do the job and a cheap closer is incredibly valuable. Just think of who the Cardinals could have signed this year if they didn't have that $9 million izzie yoke around their neck. It would be interesting to see a projection on the marginal difference between Wainwright and Thompson/Narveson/dud free agent. Finally, I don't want to again witness what happened last year-- Tony waiting until Izzie blows 10 saves before yanking him. Tony was very lucky last year -- his handling of Izzie almost single handedly cost the cardinals a playoff spot.
I'll second that
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
What about Zito?
There are guys with a huge breaking curveball that have proven to be pretty durable.
Just throwing things out there
And a closer is still cheaper than a starter
In this market, that doesn't even get you a low second tier starter. A middle of the rotation starter is worth more than a very good closer. Think of who they will be able to sign next year without that Jeff Suppan collar around their neck...
The Reason
At this minute, the Cards are not better for the 2007 season. The few players that are added are somewhat replacement level for a reasonable price.
It looks as though Jocketty will not make competitive (within the current market value) offers to Suppan, Weaver or Mulder. I believe he has seen quite enough of the stupid money scenario. It really seems like the non-tendered list is the next option, barring a trade. I don't see any real trade chips that will get us a true #2 pitcher. This feels eerily familiar to the last several winter meetings.
Again, at this moment the Cards are not a better team. That could change by this afternoon or the middle of the month. I am a tad frustrated by the inaction of my team, but I have Jocketty's back and expect that he will improve the team by hook or by crook.
Trades
That said, didn't the Fish inquire about Molina once? How about packaging him for Willis? We'll lose out on his defensive abilities, but it won't be hard to replace his offense.
yes, we are better than 06 already
Not to mention...
by rmerrill on Dec 7, 2006 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Fish
I wonder what it would take...
Wagonmager?
by EING on Dec 7, 2006 11:02 AM EST reply actions
err
Screwed up my first post. Never get a second chance at a first impression.
by EING on Dec 7, 2006 11:05 AM EST reply actions
Just doing my part
Jon Garland to the Astros
Gonna be a scary NL Central for us this year.
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 7, 2006 11:08 AM EST reply actions
What are the Sox doing?
Rosenthal
by Just Rope Ball on Dec 7, 2006 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
That makes zero sense
Ok, well, if it's *2* young pitchers
And Reinsdorf will save $20m. He won't complain.
Williams stays the "playoff route" buy keeping Contreras. Garland is younger, but he's a groundball pitcher and Contreras is a strikeout pitcher.
Rotation thoughts
We also need an outfielder who can hit lefties and his name cannot be Barry Bonds!
Excellent
by the red baron on Dec 7, 2006 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Value investing...
Another thing to consider...
I'd reather be in a situation to pick and choose during the stretch run - rather than over-consume like a drunken sailor during these winter meetings. (Those mid-season hangovers can cripple a GM)
A great point...
payroll
Okay, that's final
I can't wait to read that in the Wall Street Journal, in lower case, of course.
More new info.....
Keith Law on 590 the fan reported Schmidt deal to dodgers is NOT finalized and Cardinals still very much in it for the right offer.
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 7, 2006 11:29 AM EST reply actions
Seriously
Ken Williams: "You say gas prices have dropped in the last few months? I know, I'll buy a school bus!"
What Williams is doing is that he's said
The Garland trade, if it were to go through, is a GM-of-the-year trade IF it works. If not? He's a goat.
But his owner saves $20m so he's on a goat to the fans.
bonds
...is this thing that serious or is it just hype from the media b/c it's such an interesting story?! I've hated bonds for so long...but I'd become a fan if he had the birds on the bat. Just goes to show Cowherd was right when he said, "put a hometeam jersey on Charles Manson and if he sinks the winning three pointer at the buzzer they carry him off the court."
I don't care...that makes our lineup better any way you look at it. Pujols becomes a better hitter, Bonds even has a chance of becoming scarier. Now, I do cringe thinking of Bonds playing anywhere in the field!
by jose smokeindo on Dec 7, 2006 11:33 AM EST reply actions
wow..
I personally want manny ramirez to come to the NL. I don't care what team as long as it's not any of our central opponents.
by jose smokeindo on Dec 7, 2006 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
That was my first...
Left field NL average: .277/.359/.478
Luis Gonzalez: .273/.357/.447
Center field NL average: .264/.335/.418
Juan Pierre: .292/.330/.388
Right field NL average: .268/.345/.453
Andre Ethier: .308/.365/.477
"Looking at Ethier's second half, I'd say there's a good chance the Dodgers are below average offensively at all three outfield positions in 2007. And it's not like these guys are Gold Glovers."
They do have a pile of pitching though
Szymborski infers Colletti's an idiot....
A few entries down, he says this about Bavasi
Apparently, Buzzie's Other Idiot Son was getting upset that the Angels and Astros were hogging all the stupid. This is one of those trades that are so bad that you can actually justify it better by pretending that the offending GM is making the trade as part of some James Bond Bad Guy Masterplan. And not the Fleming Bond, the Bad John Gardner Bond that fought an evil ice cream manufacturer and an evil text-based video game programmer.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/braves_acquired_rafael_soriano/
Funny stuff, makes you really appreciate WJ.
I do not want Barry Bonds
i agree completely.
I'm sorry, but my gut response: Buck Fonds!
Hey you guys are right...
He would make our offense more potent though (even in his decline/ and with the bad attitude).
It just feels really good to turn on espn radio and the first thing I hear is news about the cardinals. A world series win couldn't get me that. So, it's nice to get some national attention. Some will say, yeah but that's negative press...they would have a point. At this point, for me, hearing that bonds could come to St. Louis is interesting stuff (bad or good).
by jose smokeindo on Dec 7, 2006 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
no interest in bonds
"There's nothing on with Bonds," Jocketty said. "I'm sick and tired of people asking that. We don't have money for Bonds. We're trying to sign pitching."
mlb.com
That is by far the best news to come out of florida this week. it is nicer to look at that lineup as fantasy rather than a possible reality.
If the Gil Meche rumor is true...
I take that back, about Batista, being worth 7-8 million, but somehow I'm inclined to accept it as a unfortunate side-efect of this ridiculous market. On two conditions - the contract is 3 yr's or less, and we don't overspend on any other SP's.
Blue Jays still in on him...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 7, 2006 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Explain to me
How many...
How many
the only players who would have made a difference
if they can add batista or an equivalent, i'd eyeball the team at about 90 wins for 2007. the improvement is all addition by subtraction --- no marquis, no ponson, no lame-armed mulder. those three guys made about 65 starts last year, more than 1/3 of the cardinals' total starts, and the combined era of those starts was about 6.00.
if we project their replacements as wainwright and batista, and we further project that over 60 starts those two will deliver an era of, say, 4.75 --- that's a big improvement, probably 4 to 6 additional wins.
reyes and weaver combined for 33 starts and about a 5.00 era. if reyes takes those 33 starts this year and keeps his era in the 4.25 to 4.50 range --- more improvement, perhaps another win or two.
the offense will be fine as long as albert stays healthy.
Padilla...
by ilillillli on Dec 7, 2006 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
We're hoping this team is better...
If you ask me, the pitchers are all wildcards except carp (and soup).
Someone is going to fall into the 6+ ERA range and get replaced by a minor leaguer who is not that much better, the position is in limbo for a while and the spot doesn't produce wins for team. Since lboros is predicting 90 wins with everyone doing better, then I say 85 wins with a real team. 85 wins doesn't win the divison, but may get the wild card.
by redbird2006in on Dec 7, 2006 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don't agree with your assessment
We have assumed some SP risks going into this season in two ways - youth and lack of depth. But as someone mentioned in an earlier post, his is the year to incorporate some youth. And as far as the rotation's depth: Let's sign one more reliable 180-inning starter (Batista, Weaver, Soup, etc). There are oodles of FA #4's and #5's starters out there. Not one of them is exciting, but I trust in reclamation powers of the 3-headed monster Jock-La-Dunc.
look at all the unexciting options in the FA starting pitcher market.
I guess i'm not following you
Is it official yet?
Bonds...
Eck
Bonds
Pujols
Rolen
Edmonds
Duncan
Kennedy
Molina
I would take that lineup.
If you are
Eck
Duncan
Albert
Bonds
Rolen
Edmonds
Kennedy
Molina
That is a good, but OLD lineup. I wouldn't want to let Juan E get away because he will be needed to spell the three regular outfielders often.
Here's my biggest concern constructing
What happens, as it did last year, when pitchers can't make it to the 6th or 7th is guys like Flores and Johnson pitching to RH batters. It forces them out of their roles and it forces them into longer situations or relief. There's a trickle down effect that happens here where the pen gets worn out and exposed if the relievers can't go deep.
I'm not saying that Reyes and Wainwright can't go 6IP on a regular basis, but I am asking if we want to assume they can.
A Valid concern
Just an addtion
same issue was raised with haren
sure, they need to have contingency plans in place; i think reyes can provide sufficient innings.
It would make sense
What's the difference
Right, but didn't...
there's a difference between the situation
This year we have Reyes, Wainwright and Wells who could all have signficant issues going late into games. I think Reyes will produce as well, I wanted him in over Marquis for much of last year, but what contingency can they have in place right now...Hawksworth, Garcia.
i'm so frustrated
Well,
by rockin redbird on Dec 7, 2006 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
Help Me
it's not what's their doing
Simple enough...
Its because last year's line up looked solid too
We tossed Ponson out with the garbage and the M&Ms were really, really bad (and/or injured).
Now we're going into 2007 with with a ZIPS rotation of mid 4s pitchers....just like 2006!
IMHO, this is like going to an amusement park and paying $3 for a bottle of water. Sure would have been good to bring some water from home, but its too late for that now. We're out of water, and we are really thirsty, and so we have 2 choices now:
- Buy some overpriced water and drink.
- Say "no way, that's too much to pay", and hope we don't get dehydrated and miss the playoffs.
by redbird2006in on Dec 7, 2006 2:21 PM EST reply actions
'04 and '05
To be fair, that's pretty much what our '04 and '05 rotations looked like. In '04, particularly, it was far from clear whether we had upgraded from the disasterous '03 rotation.
It's far from proven that having a bunch of expensive free agents is the way to build a winning rotation anyway. The Cards have done alright over the last few years spending their $16M on four Kip Wells rather than one Jason Schmidt.
by Leo on Dec 7, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
At least we tried
All 4 of those pickups were really good for us imho. (I know Mulder is sputtering but he put up some great numbers when he was going well).
In 2006 we let Morris go because he was too expensive.
In 2007 we're letting Weaver? and Suppan? go because they're too expensive?
I still look at Suppans stats and wonder how we can let him go.
If you ask me, you either sign a big name pitcher and "go for broke", or you go with the rookies and if we're below 500 at the allstar break you call it a rebuilding year.
Looks like this is going to be a $90M rebuilding year.
by redbird2006in on Dec 7, 2006 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
HOw can you say that
I'll point out one more time. Marquis, Ponson, and Mulder. One +6 ERA, one DFA, and one injury. NOw I'll look at Wainwright, Reyes, and Wells. Question Mark, Question Mark, Question Mark. But based on LB's, Erik's, and IlliIiILii's breakdown of each, I'd rather take my chances with them, than to go through that again. Suppan is too expensive. If he wants to pitch here, he will have to take a discount. You need to get over it. We are not the Yankees.
We aren't out of water.
the ZIPS projections
5yrs/$55mm...
Meche's innings the past 3 years: 128, 143, 187
His ERA+: 86, 85, 97
His WHIP: 1.46, 1.57, 1.43
Burnett's innings: 120, 209, 135
ERA+: 112, 117, 118
WHIP: 1.17, 1.26, 1.31
I hate the opt out that team's are giving these guys now. After 2008, if Burnett can stay healthy, he'll probably walk away from the $24mm remaining on the deal.
And how much of a hoosier is this guy? Eight round trip limo rides between Toronto and Maryland a year? For $55mm you could charter a bus John Madden style for those long trips.
I SECOND...
by Born in 82 on Dec 7, 2006 2:35 PM EST reply actions
bonds...and The Herd?
also, are people really qouting Colin Cowherd on this thread? honestly, that should be grounds for a lifetime ban - that guy's got about as much credibility as some random hoosier in a yahoo fantasy football league, with an awful ego to match.
by imposs1ble on Dec 7, 2006 2:35 PM EST reply actions
I've never met 1 person who thinks
Dodgers.....
Question about next level
I think...
Lofton put up a 301-360-403 in center. Pierre will likely not match that or play any better D.
Drew put up a 283-393-498... Gonzo will likely be good for 270-350-425. Sorry but Chavez Ravine is going to be a bucket of ice water after seven years at the BOB or whatever they're calling it now.
Ethier put up a 277-337-429 over the second half of last year... Maybe he'll bounce back, or maybe pitchers figured him out. The projections I've seen suggest the latter.
Garciaparra stayed relatively healthy last year, he won't get any better, but might get worse. Kent is 39. Furcal had a career year at age 28, maybe he'll repeat that...
I see them taking a step back offensively.
As for the pitching, we'll have to see who they trade away. Schmidt-Penny-Wolf-Lowe-Billingsley/Hendrickson/Tomko is pretty nasty, but I suspect they move somebody to replace Ethier... Either way I think they've moved laterally so far.
I have to agree
What will talking heads do if the Dodgers finish with 72 wins? Demand that Depo return to bring the Blue back the LA?
Idiots.
Living out here in SoCal I am thankful every day to be a Cardinal fan.
I like the Schmidt signing...
I can just see them rolling into town in July with Garciaparra in street clothes, Kent with a brace on his back, and Gonzo nursing something... Who hits cleanup then? Wilson Betemit?
They'll move Penny for a bat. It has to happen. In that case the 2006 rotation goes from Penny-Lowe-Maddux-Billingsley/Sele/Hendrickson/Seo/ to Schmidt-Lowe-Wolf-Billingsley-Hendrickson/Tomko.
Schmidt will likely be better than Penny, who was awful over the 2nd half. Lowe will be Lowe. Wolf probably won't be as good as Maddux was for them. Billingsley could blossom.
With the Penny for Manny scenario the pitching improves a bit and the hitting gets a bit worse. Plus there's significant injury risk(s): 40 year old Gonzo, 39 year old Kent, 33 going on 43 year old Garciaparra...
What about Tankersley?
And for that matter, what about that kid Worrell in AW's spot if he starts?
While I'm at it, is it possible that the Pitcher-Turned-Outfielder Who Shall Not Be Named competes for an OF spot? Can he possibly field worse than Dunc?
field worse than Dunc? NO WAY!
According to one rating system, Duncan's LF defense approaches the absolute limit of defensive inefficiency, Manny Ramirez.
runelvys hernandez
by cards4ever on Dec 7, 2006 5:02 PM EST reply actions
of course
by cards4ever on Dec 7, 2006 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Playoff Baseball
#1Carp
#2Reyes
#3WW
#4Wells
Bullpen: same, but replace WW with Izzy
Line-up:
Eck
Dunc
Pujols
Edmonds
Rolen
Enc
Molina
Kennedy
the cards
by cards4ever on Dec 7, 2006 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
On the other hand...
Dunc was second half only
Reyes and in the minors most the year.
I was hitting for Molina until the playoffs (sorry guys my bad)
Edmonds was seeing stars.
Rolen was still breaking the shoulder in.
AW was pitching the 7th most of the year.
True:
Duncan could turn back into a pumpkin
Reyes could go all "He who shall not be named"
I could go back to hitting for Molina (I have been working on driving the ball)
Edmonds might still see stars
Rolen could go helmet to helmet again on a slant pass.
and AW could remember he's not Smoltz.
If that happens it happen...but we wont be paying Meche $55M to watch it happen.
They have made major changes
speaking of Rolen
by rmerrill on Dec 7, 2006 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
maybe
Since 1994, I only see 3 cases of a team winning the WS and not making the playoffs: 06 White Sox, 03 Angels, and 04 Marlins.
The Angels didn't make any moves and had a losing record. The White Sox should have been a much better team this year, after adding Thome and Vasquez, but they finished 3rd in their division.
I don't think the Marlins' moves really count because they seem to have been made just to cut payroll (I-Rod, Looper and Urbina left, D-Lee was traded)
frustrated with management?
i believe that last year's regular season was more of a fluke than a 83 win team winning the WS was. We were much better than a 83 win team last year. That team that started playing day 1 of the playoffs was our real team and that team was awesome and great to watch. i remember feeling giddy watching those first games against the padres. all i could think was "my cardinals are back!" and we are bringing back almost the same team with some upgrades by subtraction at pitching. all we need is one more experienced innings eating starter and some bullpen fortification and we are cookin!
YOu know what's funny
good job by management so far.
Beyond that great move, we now have a decent 2B, rotation opportunities for the young ptichers, and a little cash to use when the goofy overspenders start their salary dumps.
I think the Cardinals
I was thinking
I heard Ankiel
glad to be back
first off, what the cards havent done:
didnt sign schmidt, meche, lilly, eaton or padilla. with the dollar amounts involved, the only guy i would want out of those is schmidt, and that is the absolute top dollar i would have given him
they didnt get gonzo, drew, lugo, and that is just fine
missed out on freddy garcia; would have had to part with reyes or wainwright, so glad we passed
as far as rumors: are we gonna get bonds?
well i have thought about this all day,would st louis be a good place for him? i really dont know, but whatever way you used him in the lineup, he would either give pujols the best protection he ever had, or pujols would give bonds the best protection that he ever had
at this point the roster looks basically like this:
starting lineup:
1.eck ss
2.dunc lf
3.pujols 1b
4.rolen 3b
5.jed cf
6.jenc rf
7.ak 2b
8.yadi c
bench:
sno cones c
tags of
speez if-of
jrod of
miles if
starters:
carp
reyes
wells
wainwright
narveson
relievers:
izzy
loop
tj
flores
kinney
hancock
thompson
rincon
all in all, not a lot of change, except the rotation, now i dont really think we will see this as our starting corp when the season starts, we will either make one signing, or possibly a trade to take the spot of narveson, but it is defintely looking like wainy will be in the rotation, i still think we will sign some sort of righthanded hitter to pair with dunc, and we may see one reliever signed
i really think walt is at a point where he will wait for the nontenders before he does much else
Another reason for "delay"...
Who's the #2 starter? Wouldn't surprise me if'n it were The Wagonmaker!
Reyes
With the 2 young guys maybe it could get shaky, but perhaps like with the Marlins' starters they could gain confidence as they go on.
Garcia -- Not Freddy
"Keep this in mind, too:
I believe Jaime Garcia could be a relatively quick arrival in the majors... the organization is thrilled with him and thinks he could be on a fast track.... he's a lefty with some age who really knows how to pitch.
--B"
Good to hear that the Cards are looking for some in house options (other than Looper). I can't imagine Garcia could really sniff the majors in 07 though. Too big a jump, though we do see some other orgs fast tracking their top talent.
Pretty Good
by DimitroffVodka on Dec 7, 2006 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
sry
Garcia, Freddy
Couldn't Walt have swung that deal for similar talent within Cards system? With no Schmidt at No. 2, Garcia could have been a servicable No. 2 starter with Reyes at No. 3, Wells at No. 4 and Wainwright at No. 5, imo.
by Baily on Dec 7, 2006 11:01 PM EST reply actions
Walt was too busy being a bridesmaid for Schmidt
From what I have read Walt & Co. were so focused on getting Schmidt they were not talking to other clubs about trades at the meetings.
So we missed out. Hopefully Walt will spend the weekend either making a run for Suppan or actually talking to some clubs about a trade for a starter. But I don't think there are a lot of options left to trade for a legit #2 without getting fleeced ala the Mulder trade.
All talk, no action
by Baily on Dec 8, 2006 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Gio was from the Sox farm system
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