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carpenter extended

per matt leach --- the cardinals signed carpenter to an extension. he's a cardinal through 2011, with a club option throug 2012. more to come ASAP.

Update [2006-12-4 17:26:56 by lboros]: initial thought, before learning anything about the dollars involved: one thing that jumps right out at me about this deal is that it's a five-year commitment to a pitcher. the cardinals have rarely been willing to consider anything longer than 3 before when dealing with free-agent pitchers. it's a measure of how highly the organization values carpenter: they broke their own rules for him.

Update [2006-12-4 17:32:49 by lboros]: as reported by associated press:

Carpenter had been signed through 2007 as part of an agreement that called for a $7 million salary next year. The Cardinals exercised his 2008 option at $9 million as part of the new agreement and added guaranteed years for 2009, 2010 and 2011 plus a club option for 2012. If the new option is exercised, the deal would be worth about $77 million.
walk through this with me. the 2007-08 years are worth a combined $16m, so if we subtract that from $77m we're left with $61m over the four years of the extension (three guaranteed, one option). that's an average of $15.25m per year for the four extension years (2009-12).

Update [2006-12-4 17:44:28 by lboros]: further news: the package, without the option year, is worth $65m --- which means the three years from 2009-11 are worth $65m minus $16m, or $49m --- an average of $16m a year. no hometown discount; that's the current market rate for aces (zito's being offered $17m a year by the rangers). but the diff'nce is that carpenter will be making that money two years from now, by which time the going rate for aces may be at $20 million . . . .

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brilliant
Whatever they're paying him, I'm sure it will be money well spent. Nice not to have to worry anymore about whether overpaying for a free agent now would bump up Carp's asking price later.

by DCGreg on Dec 4, 2006 5:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice
Best move they could have made this offseason.
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Dec 4, 2006 5:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Carp
Just wanna say THANK GOD.
Can't imagine life without Carpenter in a year.

by its in the cards on Dec 4, 2006 5:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Excellent
He earned it.

His World Series performance is already one of my favorite Cardinal memories, and will be for a long time

by Fitz on Dec 4, 2006 5:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it will be interesting to see what this does
in relation to the Zito and Schmidt contracts.  Has Walt just pulled another good move and locked Carp up at below market value?  Does Carpenter's contract set the ceiling for Schmidt and Zito?  This is the first major pitching move since Oswalt got the 73M/5years.
Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2006 5:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sweet
I am glad they got that done.  If they do sign a FA pitcher, no need to worry about what it will cost them for Carpenter next year.

by stlfaninpa on Dec 4, 2006 5:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Great News
but am I the only one thinking, please don't tank?

by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Dec 4, 2006 5:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no you're not
I'm initially giddy, but it's a nervous laugh.

pleasedontgethurt pleasedontgethurt...

Either way I love the guy. Makes me wanna buy a carp jersey.

by effin fisk on Dec 4, 2006 6:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My wife bought me one
a World Series 2006 jersey for Christmas.

I wanted a Rolen jersey, but I have this slightly uneasy feeling he might be getting shopped around, or might not be here more than a couple of years...

By the way, I am officially the easiest person that my family can shop for.  I want EVERYTHING Cardinal World Series 2006 related.

2006 World Champs! Inconceivable! You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

by BozCardsFanSF on Dec 5, 2006 10:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cards are playing the Civil Rights game next year
vs the Indians at Autozone Park in memphis. Pretty cool stuff.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 4, 2006 5:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What?
Please continue... who/what/where/why?
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Dec 4, 2006 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

civil rights game
march 31, in memphis, its an exhibition, and it is to honor the african-americans. its in mephis, the hometown of martin luther king jr.

by cards4ever on Dec 4, 2006 5:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Atlanta is his home town
Memphis is where he was assassinated in 1968.

by wildman on Dec 4, 2006 5:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cool
If they actually put their ML rosters (damn pre-season games)out on the field, combined with the awesomness that is Autozone Park, that would be a very cool game to be at.
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Dec 4, 2006 5:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Memphis wasn't his hometown
it's where he was killed.  He was born in Atlanta, and lived in Montgomery.
Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2006 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

$65
5 year/ $65 million as I see it.

The Cardinals have extended Chris Carpenter through 2011 with a club option for 2012. The deal is worth about $65 million.
Carpenter had been signed at $7 million for 2007 with an $8 million option for 2008. The Cardinals will now pay him $9 million in 2008 as part of the new agreement and added three guaranteed years plus a club option for 2012. If the new option is exercised, the deal would be worth about $77 million.

by JxMetal on Dec 4, 2006 5:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

wow
For the three or four add-on years, we're talking about $12-$13 million a year.  A real bargain in this market.  

by DCGreg on Dec 4, 2006 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

think it's a little higher
If the deal is 5 years/65 and they could have had his next 2 years for a combined 15 million, then they basically added on 3 more years at 16.7 a year, if the story is correct, right? Still in favor of the move, even at that price.

by mikedallas23 on Dec 4, 2006 5:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Math?
2007  $7mm
2008  $9mm
2009  $16.33mm*
2010  $16.33mm*
2011  $16.33mm*
2012  $12mm option

* $77mm total less 2007, 2008 and 2012 option ($77mm less $65mm) divided by 3

by wildman on Dec 4, 2006 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was
so much better at math when I was 12. You guys are right, of course.

by DCGreg on Dec 4, 2006 5:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

New Math
I'm betting that there's some salary deferred like in Edmonds' extension. Carp will be 38 for the 2013 season.

Even before considering 8% yearly inflation for MLB salaries, this looks like a good deal. If some of that salary is "pension" from 2020-2029, it's a fantastic deal.

by liam on Dec 5, 2006 2:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

bad math
Add-on years more like $15-16 mln. I still like it. But please ignore me.

by DCGreg on Dec 4, 2006 5:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

less than Oswalt
sounds like a discount

although I'll always be frightened by a 5 year deal for a pitcher.  But I guess this is the type of player you have to commit to...

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2006 5:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Prelude to something else?
The timing here makes me wonder if this clears the air for a meaningful starting pitcher aqcuisition - Schmidt or a trade.  Great news regardless.  Have we ever gone that long on a pitcher's contract before?

by wildman on Dec 4, 2006 5:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

amen wildman
by extending carp out that long, it definitely allows the cards to go out and sign a guy to a 4-5 year contract (jason schmidt).  carp is taken care and we can sign/trade for a big time pitcher to back him up and not "insult" him...go cards!!!

by duckymedwick7 on Dec 4, 2006 5:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great move...
to lock him up now....and make sure he knows where he stands...and 5 yrs./ 65 million is a bargin in my book for a guy like Carp..

by Timbo02 on Dec 4, 2006 5:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Especially....
since the Rangers are going to offer Zito 6 yrs/$102 million....yikes!

by JxMetal on Dec 4, 2006 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and I
honestly think that Carpenter is the better pitcher.  In a pitching matchup, I would take Zito out of Carp for most games - he's also truly been a big game pitcher for the Cards, a true stopper.

by Toddius396 on Dec 4, 2006 5:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Certainly thought they could and should wait
Till next year, but maybe they realized next year might be even more out of hand with Zambrano, Buehrle, Willis and others FA.  

I'm glad to see him rewarded though.

by OCCardsFan on Dec 4, 2006 5:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't know...
I like the idea of locking up Carpenter and the average price per season of 13 million is decent. But with reduced payments in 07 and 08, those 09-11 season will be what, 16 million a season. That is pretty heafty. And bringing him in at 5 seasons. I am not thrilled at the length. I would have been happy at a 3 year deal worth 36-40 million with 1 or 2 option years at around 12 million a season. This might be too long for too much. On the upside, won't Carp be out of this contract just as Albert hits the FA market?

by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2006 5:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Carp would have been silly
to take a 3-year deal at 36-40 million, given the way the market is treating pitchers who haven't accomplished half of what he has over the past three years

by tdawg on Dec 4, 2006 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes...
But who is to say that payroll (league avg) wont keep going up? 15 mil a year for Carp (if he is still the same pitcher he is now) in '09, '10, & '11 will probably still be a good deal (not a bargain by any means, but a good deal regarless).
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Dec 4, 2006 5:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry
16.3 a year
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Dec 4, 2006 5:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Albert...
Will never hit the free agent market. By the time his contract is coming to a close the Cardinals will do exactly what they just did with Carpernter and give him an extension that will make Albert Pujols a Cardinal for life. There is no way that the organization would ever... EVER let Pujols play for any other team. You can retire number 5 right now because Pujols is going to be the last Cardinal ever to wear it.

by BigMac545 on Dec 4, 2006 6:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am not so sure
By the time Albert is ready to go FA or resign, his price could be $25-30M a year.  I am not sure any club outside New York or Boston could afford that.

by Zubin on Dec 4, 2006 8:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Brilliant move by Jocketty...
...if there was ever a guy to take a risk on, it's Carpenter.  He took a discount before so that the Cards would have room to field a competitive team, and hopefully now he feels rewarded.
Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2006 5:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

carp still giving us a discount
no doubt carp gave us a discount before, but this deal is definitely a discount as it stands right now.  i mean, if ted lilly is gonna get a rumored $11 million per year, carp at $13 million is a STEAL.  looks like again, carp cares more about winning than dollars.  gotta love the move any way you slice it.

by stlspecialsauce on Dec 4, 2006 5:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cardinal discount
While he is getting an average of $16.3mm in 2009-2011 (doesn't it feel funny to write that.....shows how old I am getting), we also have a year at $7mm, one at $9mm and an option at $12mm.  $13 per year for a Cy Young winner in this market is definitely a discount.  Not that he's going to be hurting financially....

Reading between the lines on his interviews, Carp likes the team, the style of play, the commitment to winning, etc. and wants to stay a part of it.  All due respect to the great city of St. Louis, I would term it a Cardinal discount instead of a St. Louis discount.

by wildman on Dec 4, 2006 5:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jumpin ahead a bit, but...
It'll be really interesting to see what happens when TLR retires. Will Duncan be around? Oquendo? It'll be hard to find a new manager who matches Tony's intensity.

by effin fisk on Dec 4, 2006 6:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm basically 100% sure it'll be Oquendo
He interviewed for a managers postition this offseason, but I didn't hear anything.  So, apparantly he didn't get it or he turned it down.

I think he wants to manage the Cards and should be Tony's successor.

by Big Red on Dec 4, 2006 7:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Will Oquendo break Red's record,
for longest in a Cardinal Uni.  I'd say the secret weapon only has 50 more years to go?

by Zubin on Dec 4, 2006 8:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and if I'm not mistaken
Jose isn't exactly gaing ground on Red.  He laces 'em up everyday for bp, right?

by Big Red on Dec 5, 2006 12:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

To extend the prelude thought....
If Carp knows he's getting $16m in a few years, maybe management doesn't have to think about offending him by throwing $14m/year or something at a pitcher this offseason.

by sdrone on Dec 4, 2006 5:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's what I was thinking
How about this dialogue:

"Hey, Carp - we'd like to pursue another horse to join you in the rotation.  But you are our #1 guy and we don't want to offend you in any way.  Let's talk about an extension and for you as our priority - then we'll see what we can pull off in the FA or trade market."

Or something like that....

by wildman on Dec 4, 2006 5:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thank God...
something happened...

That last thread on Pujols' MVP comments was driving me to actually do some work.

Seriously though, one barrier to signing a well-regarded FA pitcher was that it would be unseemly to pay anyone more than Carp. This was a prerequisite to signing someone else.

by guayzimi on Dec 4, 2006 5:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Somewhat related question
Do you think players take the cost of living in these cities into consideration?  Granted that players live differently than we do, that can be a huge factor.  For instance here are some approximately equivalent salaries:
$15MM in St. Louis
$18.5 in Chicago
$25MM in LA
$32.5MM in Manhattan
$23 in Queens

Just a thought that popped into my head.

by Just Rope Ball on Dec 4, 2006 5:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Carp lives in South Florida
Way more expensive than StL but no state income tax

by wildman on Dec 4, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought
that since he "works" in StL that Missouri would still collect income tax.  

by Just Rope Ball on Dec 4, 2006 5:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True...
But since he's employed in Missouri, doesn't he pay taxes in Missouri?

by Bivouac77 on Dec 4, 2006 5:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You bet
he does--in fact, athletes have to pay taxes in EVERY state they play in. That's why there's that omnipresent question on tax forms--"Are you a professional athlete." Their tax burdens are pretty nuts.

by rockin redbird on Dec 4, 2006 7:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oh man that's tough
they actually have to give AWAY some of their money.  whats with that?? they make seven, eight figure salaries and have to give away some of it?!?!

(if you couldn't tell, enter sarcasm)

Albert Pujols is god with a lowercase "g". Let's go Redbirds, World Series '06 here we come!

by stlsportsfan on Dec 4, 2006 8:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Carp has a house in U City
Not sure if he lives there year-round though.

by Yellow Dog on Dec 4, 2006 9:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

interesting
post...Oh and I been saying all offseason that I wanted the carp deal done. To me Im alot more happy if they dont get anyone else...of course id still like to see some more, but carp in red for a few yrs is good to me.
Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 4, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've often thought that too
Especially when you think about a state like Texas or Florida with no state income tax.  That has to have a huge income effect for these guys if they choose to go to the Stros or Rangers.

by OCCardsFan on Dec 4, 2006 7:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's possible...
... but i would bet that many players don't consider it for a second. most people see things in nominal dollars and cents, not in "real" terms.

for example, some recent economic research shows that people who live in suburbs and commute to work in cities save little or no money because of the increase in transportation costs. in effect, they are trading the added time cost inherent in commutes for a perceived savings in rent that really isn't there. (obviously, there may be other concerns... often suburbs are safer than cities, have better schools, etc.).

obviously, if Pujols spends 1 million dollars to help kids in Dominican Republic, it's the same as if Big Papi spent 1 million in one sense: in the DR, that one million can buy the same bundle of stuff.

but Pujols' million would go further in St. Louis, or Kansas City (wherever he lives), so the net effect is that he is actually giving up "more" money by donating.

now, some of that is mathematical; Kip Wells probably isn't going to spend all 4 million bucks directly in the areas in St. Louis that are less expensive than NYC, so his salary isn't really worth twice as much as if he'd signed with the Yankees. a lot of these ballplayers have permanent residences in places other than their team's home city, so it doesn't really matter (too much) what the cost-of-living disparity is.

yadda yadda. in brief, the disparity is there, most likely no one considers it, and most likely the effect isn't as great as some academics would have us believe. at least for ballplayers.

by kindred on Dec 4, 2006 7:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right,
I highly doubt if many, if any, MLB free agents  consider the "net" of the various salary offers they get.

Also, don't think that the Texas and Florida players benefit that much from the "no state income tax".  I'd bet that is pretty much made up in other taxes such as property tax, sales tax, etc.  It's been a number of years now, but when I moved from Texas to Arkansas, my property taxes dropped by ~1/2 even though my new house was roughly 1.5 times the value of the one in Texas.

by ArkansasTravs on Dec 4, 2006 11:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree lboros...
this was no hometown discount. By having him locked up at $16mm over the next two years the Cards had him by the stones.

Some of his comments indicate he's a nervous nelly when it comes to his injury. He wants security over trying to maximize his income.

The question is, how do the Cards keep paying cut rate prices for these guys while everyone else pays top dollar?

by guayzimi on Dec 4, 2006 5:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jocketty
Jocketty, in my opinion, is the best GM in baseball. He doesn't really seem to get much credit outside of St Louis (and even in StL, he doesn't get enough)

by Fitz on Dec 4, 2006 5:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not necessarily a discount...
But, a smart signing.  WJ again gets the most bang for his buck.  In 2012, I bet the option looks pretty darn good.

Additionally, Carp gave us one heck of a discount once to repay the team for rehabbing him and keeping him in baseball.  I saw an interview once where he said he was going to hang it up.  He was injured with no contract.  The Cardinals took a low-cost chance on him and kept him in the game.  

It seems to be a love-love relationship.

And, at the end of his time in Red...I bet you can take his overall price per win share and still be blown away at the value vs. dollar we will have gained from him.

The other day on a Brewers board, some of the Brewer fans were commenting on how the Cardinals kept the big stars happy and plugged holes with role players and how they thought it's how a team should operate.   I was proud.

Signing Carp now keeps him happy and thwarts the temptation to test the market.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 4, 2006 8:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Timing
The timing of this signing makes me think that Jason Schmidt could be in our immediate future. I thought I heard that the Cards were suppose to meet with his people.

by BGFOOT17 on Dec 4, 2006 5:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow did Espn
actually print the appology?  http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2685770

the guy cannot buy a break...albert never speak again it only harms you, then they will accuse you of being surly...hmmm just quit baseball and be a mime no one ever gets angry at them...ok bad analogy

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 4, 2006 5:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

enough of this stupid talk
i am sick of the whole "what pujols said, what the media said" bullshit. this is directed at the whole board, not just punchinjudy --- take this boring drivel to another board. i've had it.

by lboros on Dec 4, 2006 5:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sorry
wasnt aware it was in another thread wouldnt have posted it, i just knew people posted the original story here so i thought id post that. Didnt mean to anger neone
Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 4, 2006 10:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no worries punchin
i didn't mean to unload on you specifically --- this subject just got talked to death earlier in the day, and it has been talked to death ever since the whole "controversy" (rolls eyes) broke out . . . .

by lboros on Dec 4, 2006 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Strauss report via Bernie
Talking Pavano trade with Yankees (but Jocketty denies)...

still monitoring Schmidt...

More focus on Padilla and Batista ...

front-runners for L. Gonzalez, but price may be getting too high...

Strauss thinks they will make a trade this week; could be part of a 3-way.

--B

by DCGreg on Dec 4, 2006 5:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

pavano would be nice
if the yanks eat some of his salary.  even still, he's younger and probably more accomplished than a lot of these other guys who are getting big money.  plus, he fits right into the reclamation project bin that la-dunc have had a lot of success with.  i'd be excited about a rotation of 1) carpenter, 2) pavano, 3) wainright, 4) reyes, and 5) wells.

by stlspecialsauce on Dec 4, 2006 6:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If and only if you can get Cashman to
take on 50% of the remaining 07:$10M, 08:$11M money and they don't want Wainwright, Reyes, Rasmus, Duncan, Hawksworth or Narveson in return then I would go for it.  If we get Pavano for 5 million a year for 2/3 B-/C+ prospects then I could live with that.  He could be a useful middle of the rotation cog with some upside.

This rotation has the ability to perform very well or fall flat on its face with many, many DL trips.  I'd rather have something a little more certain for one of the slots 2-5.  Someone who can be counted on 180IP and league average production.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2006 7:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Soup!
 I'd rather have something a little more certain for one of the slots 2-5.  Someone who can be counted on 180IP and league average production.

See Jeff Suppan.

Too bad he wants 10 mill...

10-time World Champs!

by TheFranchise9 on Dec 4, 2006 10:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Makes total sense
It's also smart tactically since it sets the ceiling. "Okay, Jason, how many Cys you got in the closet, and you want how much...?"

by Red in Chicago on Dec 4, 2006 6:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Im scared
of a pavano deal with all of his injury problems

by Calhoun on Dec 4, 2006 6:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

and
his allegedly questionable desire to play.  

by Toddius396 on Dec 4, 2006 6:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Keep in mind the crazy NY media spin
No one but Derek Jeter wants to win in NY.  Pavano for a C-list of prospects for 5 mil a year is a very good deal.
Pujols > God

by joker24 on Dec 4, 2006 9:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is the time
I  think this is the time to make the "Big Splash" and sign Jason Schmidt! I'm sure azruavatar will totally agree with me on this!

by BGFOOT17 on Dec 4, 2006 6:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

my off the cuff reaction
i'm sure they've seen the asking prices for Zito and Schmidt and can just see where this crazy path is going, and that Carp is superior to both. If it really is the 5/65 I've heard, well that's just brilliant. Nice job Walter!

by erik on Dec 4, 2006 6:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pavano had
one good year, and has either been injured or tanked it since. Just say no to Pavano.

by cardsrul on Dec 4, 2006 6:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

BTW...
the Carp extension just made my holiday. Well done, Jock...

by cardsrul on Dec 4, 2006 6:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I've been stewing on this for a bit
and I'm just not sure I'm a fan of the extension.  It isn't a bargain discount.  We had him under our control for 07 and 08.  I don't understand the logic behind locking him up now.  If he blows his shoulder out this year, that's a HUGE contract to get saddled with for an organization.  

Even assuming that two years from now (or one year) ace's are getting 20M a year...I still don't like it.  There was no reason to extend now.  It's one thing to make a 4 year offer in the effort of landing a player (Burnett) it's another thing entirely to give a 4 year guaranteed extension to a pitcher with an injury history when you have him under control for 2 more years.

This seems like the Edmonds extension (which I defended - and still would on the grounds that he's a position player and it merely added a year past the option) only gratuitous in length.  Maybe I'm missing something . . .

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2006 7:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i see your point...
... but i'd toss a few things out there. this is all just off-the-cuff speculation on my part, so take that for what it's worth.
  1. the organization wants to send a message: we take care of our own. they've taken heat over the past few years for letting Grudz, Sanders, Matheny, and others walk away for relatively small differences in money. the extensions for Edmonds, Carp, Spiezio are all probably a bit more extravagent than they need to be, but none are completely outrageous. this deal for Carp - extending him when they didn't have to - is sending a message.
  2. the organization has had an impossible time trying to land a premier pitcher since Kile. they've gone after just about every big name to hit the market, and have no been successful at all. this guarantees them a front-line starter for years. yes, there's a bit of an injury risk, but you can't get a big-name pitcher for less money than Carp got, and all of these guys have some sort of injury history ('cept Zito, but he may be declining).
  3. marketing. having the top position player in baseball (Pujols) and one of the top-5 pitchers in baseball (Carp) is good for business. i'm not sure how good it is, exactly, but it's got to count for something.
  4. inflation. if inflation figures continue at about 3%/year for the next 5 years, those last three years (16.3 mil per) will really cost the team 15.8, 15.3, and 14.88 million (in 2006 dollars, if i did the math right). not a huge difference, but a noticeable one.
  5. flexibility. the team doesn't have a whole lot of payroll flexibility right now, but they'll have more in the future. the expensive parts of the deal doesn't kick in until Izzy's money is off the books. they seem set in keeping AW in the bullpen, so they won't be paying another closer 8-10 million. similarly, Edmonds' contract will be off the books after '08. if Rasmus does end up as an everyday player, the team will be saving a lot of money at a premier position. in addition, the flood of A and AA pitchers that we've got could yield some substantive, and cheap, future options.  if we project that we'll have Reyes + two other youngsters in the rotation in two years, there is a substantial savings from the recent "pay a vet 5 mil a year to fill the rotation" strategy.
  6. silence. i'm sure DeWitt/Jock got sick of fans complaining all year about not having enough payroll. this is their answer. if they can get one more big (or "big-ish") acquisition, then fans should be ecstatic with this team. the happier fans are, the more money they spend.
  7. reality. honestly, barring an injury, the Cards were going to pick up Carp's '08 option anyway, and Carp was going to meet all incentives. so, really, the team is only paying for three extra years at 16 million per (less inflation, rising market value, etc.). and i'm sure they've got some insurance out on his arm, so if he can't play they'll recoup some of that money.

by kindred on Dec 4, 2006 7:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i did do the math wrong...
... on the inflation bit.

using the inflation calculator available on the Bureau of Labor Statistics web site (www.bls.gov), if inflation levels remain constant for the three non-option years ('09, '10, '11), Carp's contract will be worth 14.86 mil, 14.53 mil, 14.3 mil, respectively, in 2006 dollars.

if inflation follows recent history, that 12 million option for 2012 is actually only worth 10.24 million.

inflation might not stay the same, but the deal looks more affordable if that assumption holds true, especially since Lilly is going to get 11 million a year for 4 years.

by kindred on Dec 4, 2006 7:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

plus...
... someone on the stltoday.com board linked to a hardball times article (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/present-value/) that stated that baseball contracts tend to inflate by close to 10% per year. if that's the case, through the life of Carp's contract the actual money being paid (in 2006 dollars) would be 47.36 million.

not only that, but if the Cards wait another season to negotiate, they can expect to have to pay an extra 10% for each season that is extended. if they wait until after exercising Carp's '08 option, that'd be over 20% increase per year, if Hardball Times is correct.

in the case of front-line starters, the inflation may be greater. but even at a somewhat lesser inflation rate, the deal still makes a lot of sense.

the more i think about it, the more i like it.

by kindred on Dec 4, 2006 8:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nate Silver...
used a 5% discount rate once upon a time... Dunno if that holds, but using that rate puts the present value of Carp's contract at $57.8mm. Oswalt's is $65.9mm.

by guayzimi on Dec 4, 2006 8:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The thing is...
the longer you wait, the higher the price tag.

Guessing on the final 3 years, Carp's deal is, in millions, $7, $9, $16.3, $16.3, $16.3 over 2007-2011 seasons.

Oswalt's is $13mm, $13, $14, $15, $16.

In addition to being $8mm less overall, Carp's deal is far more club friendly b/c it's heavily backloaded, so when you do discount, it's actually more than $8mm less in present value. Also, the 2012 options are $12mm for Carp, $16mm for Oswalt. Again, advantage Cards b/c the $12mm could be quite a bargain.

Carp is 2 years older and has the medical question, but Oswalt's build and delivery are frequently cited as a blowout waiting to happen. They're roughly equivalent risks.

If the Cards had waited a year and Carp had turned in another gem in 2007, obviously Carp's price would climb: there would be only a year to go before free agency and the time period for a major injury would be halved.

You gotta take some chances, and I think this was a decent one.

by guayzimi on Dec 4, 2006 7:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I follow what you and kindred are saying
but I'm not convinced that you do this now.  Next year's FA crop of pitchers looks to be a lot more top heavy.  It's entirely possible that Carpenter's price rises a few million next year but you have to weigh that against an arm that, coming off of TJ surgery, has totaled some ENORMOUS inning counts over three years.  He hasn't ranked too near the top of other systems like pitcher abuse points but there remains the possibility that he blows out something this year.

My problem isn't the dollars, it's the length of the contract.  Why add on 4 more guaranteed years 2008-2011 when you have him next year and a no risk option in 08 (meaning no commitment beyond that).  I like Carpenter.  He's a damn good pitcher but there's a reason the organization has held to not giving pitchers long term contracts.  

And the distinction that is important is that they weren't trying to just acquire a player.  Burnett asked for more years and had leverage.  Carpenter's leverage is, imo, minimal at this point.  I'd rather see a contract that maybe vested in the future based on IP.  Even if it was something like 2010 vests if he reaches 180IP in either 2008 or 2009, 2011 vests if he reaches 180IP in 2009 or 2010.  It's the length of the guaranteed commitment that seems unnecessary when he's still under our control.

There's a huge projection that's going on here by guayzimi and kindred (and the Cardinals for that matter) on several fronts. 1) Carpenter stays healthy through 2011 2) he maintains near his performance level through 2011 3) we can balance his contract with youngsters like Rasmus 4) we won't sign other big contracts like Izzy in the future.

It's just too much projection for too long imo.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2006 8:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sure...
... but your hesitation is based on assumptions that he's 1). too much of an injury risk; 2). has a decline in performance; 3). we don't get contributions from our farm systems.

we can still sign big contracts. not only won't we be paying 9 million/year anymore, we also won't be paying Mulder's 9 million, Marquis' 5 million, or Suppan's 5 million. after '08, JED is off the books. there's still room to sign other players.

i guess we can agree to disagree. i think the risk isn't outrageous, and that this deal will look amazingly affordable after guys like D-Train get done decimating the market in the next few years. i might be wrong. but i can't dislike this deal out of an assumption of injury history/performance decline. i've got no reason to believe those things will happen, so i'll stay positive.

i think, in time, that this will end up being a great deal for the Cardinals.

by kindred on Dec 4, 2006 8:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...
There's certainly risk, but I guess the bottom line for me is that, if you want to win championships it's very helpful to have a pitcher like Oswalt, Santana, Carp, Schilling etc...

If you're smart and lucky you may be able to draft these guys, pick them up off the scrap heap, or get them in the rule V draft, but ultimately they require lots of years and money to keep around.

by guayzimi on Dec 4, 2006 8:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you and kindred both make great points
and I hope this contract works out for both Carp and the Cardinals.  My hesitation was based solely on us controlling carp for two more years and the length of guaranteed money.  There's no way to really put those fears to rest except time so I guess I'll just have to sit back and enjoy Cardinals baseball for a few more years ;)
Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2006 9:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that's right...
... and i'm right with you. we're screwed without Carp, no matter what the money is. let's just sit back and enjoy watching him while we can. who knows how long it'll be before another true ace comes along?

by kindred on Dec 5, 2006 1:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Carp didn't have Tommy John surgery
for whatever reason, many people think he did, but he didn't.  It was a shoulder injury.

by Big Red on Dec 5, 2006 12:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Player profile from BP
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5682

1999 - elbow surgery to remove bone spurs
2003 - shoulder surgery to remove scar tissue

You're right.  Thanks for catching that.  Not sure where I picked up the TJ surgery idea but it's definitely wrong.  It looks as though his injuries were directly due to blatant misuse but I think the risk is still there.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 5, 2006 12:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

what if
we trade carp for Schmidt straight up?

would that make you make you happy azruavatar?  :)

by dabirds on Dec 4, 2006 7:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

clever
i enjoyed that one
Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2006 8:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well....
Technically speaking, this doesn't change our current payroll at all, does it? Schmidt at 3 or 4 years should still be feasible, if not likely.

by Fitz on Dec 4, 2006 10:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

option buyout
All these calculations of yearly salary seem kind of pointless since I'm sure we'll find out the actual numbers soon enough, but one thing I've not seen anybody take into account is the buyout of the option.  Obviously a guy doesn't sign a contract that pays him $16mil/yr with a $12mil option at the end.  Nobody wants to take a pay cut, especially not right before hitting free agency or arbitration.

I played around with the numbers a bit, and the best I could come up with was this:

2007 $7mil
2008 $9mil
2009 $14mil
2010 $15mil
2011 $16mil
2012 $16mil ($4mil buyout)

The $4mil buyout seems high, but then again, Pujols' 2011 option is also $16mil but with a $5mil buyout.

FWIW, I love this deal.  He's already underpaid for the next two years, and we didn't give that up.  For the 4 extended years, it seems like it's right about what he'd be worth as FA in today's market (maybe less), but by signing him for that now, we avoid paying him market rate for a FA ace in 2 years, which will almost certainly be higher.

by john vb on Dec 4, 2006 8:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

buyout
if I remember correctly the option takes the total from 65 to 77, so 12 million seems like the answer there

by plh903 on Dec 5, 2006 3:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

John VB's correct
If there's no buyout, then the buyout isn't paid.

by liam on Dec 5, 2006 3:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Cardinals offers out
if you beleive everything you read:

Scott Miller over at CBS Sportsline provides a whole lot of hot stove buzz in his latest entry.  Some highlights:

The Cards have offers out to Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan.  

couple that with what else was being reported, the Cardinals have offers on the table for Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, Jason Schmidt, Padilla and Bautista.

Any combo of Weaver, Suppan, Schmidt would make me happy.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2006 9:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think one thing the
Cardinals fans hold on to is their hero's. With the invention of free agency and players skipping around different teams all the time, it's nice to see some players locked up with teams. Carpenter is like the Brett Favre of the Cardinals. It will be nice when I'm 80 years old and my grandkids ask me about baseball to say I saw Chris Carpenter in Game 3 of the World Series pitch an absolute gem. There is the Cardinal roster, and then there are Cardinals. Carpenter is becoming a Cardinal, a hero.
Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Dec 4, 2006 9:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

as long as
carp knows when to quit before he becomes a shell of his former self...even though being a Bears fan I love and hate Favre, but don't like seeing him not on top.
Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 4, 2006 10:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Carpenter=Favre
But Favre only won a single championship.

Let's hope that Carpenter is more like Tom Brady....or for that matter, let's hope that Albert Pujols is like Bill Russell. Or at least Michael Jordan

by Fitz on Dec 4, 2006 10:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Touche
I was just making the example the Carp is now a lifelong Card as Farve is a life-long Packer. I think we respect Carp enough to offer him this contract. I'm sure the details of it are probably if you go down, we get our money back type of thing.
Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Dec 5, 2006 7:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Padilla
Padilla has apparently reached an agreement to re-up with the Rangers at 3/$34 million.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2686441

by Fitz on Dec 4, 2006 11:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

whoa...
... if Padilla is getting over 11 million per, then i think everyone underestimated the cost of FA pitchers in this market.

i still can't believe that. put Narvie in the rotation, man.

by kindred on Dec 5, 2006 2:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope we make an effort to resign
Tankersly to a minor league contract.  Our upper tier pitchers are not MLB ready outside of perhaps him but he's currently a minor league Free Agent, i believe.  He and Narveson (and Reyes on the Memphis Shuttle) are the only ones that pitched even remotely well at AAA.
Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Dec 5, 2006 2:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good news
Another second-rater is unavailable for Sidney Ponson's old slot.

by Red in Chicago on Dec 5, 2006 12:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

sorry a little late
but i just heard about the carp deal....

atttttaboy walt!!!!!!

by black3ram on Dec 5, 2006 3:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I have a question.
I totally don't get how these two statements make sense. From Joe Strauss yesterday:

Jocketty denied the extension suggested another high-dollar signing was imminent. But Jocketty insisted that the club would not sign any pitcher to a deal that would offer a higher average annual value the next three seasons.

Jocketty did not offer details of any bid, but it is believed the Cardinals offered Schmidt more than $10 million a year.

Huh?

Does that mean higher than the value of the extension? It must, right? Carpenter's average annual salary for the next three years is right at $10mm or so.

by plh903 on Dec 5, 2006 5:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

According to that same article
he signed a 3 year, 46 million dollar extension.  Although, the 10.5 million for 2008 is the highest number I've seen from any source.  Assuming 09-11 is averaged out, the breakdown would be:

2007 8.5
2008 10.5
2009 15.3
2010 15.3
2011 15.3
2012 12

That's around 11.4 over the next three seasons.

by outraged on Dec 5, 2006 7:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Carp and the CY
a lot of discussion here regarding hometown/cardinal discount.  just a thought:  for those of us who were infuriated/disappointed/vociferous regarding carp not winning the cy this year - is it possible that not winning saved the team a few mil?  how much more does a 2-time, back-to-back cy winner cost over 6 years than a 1-time winner who posted cy numbers in the second year?

by sdesserman on Dec 5, 2006 7:35 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

NO CY Young Award = Much less $$$
Very good point.  If Carp had won the Cy Young Award the total value of this contract would have been over 80MM instead of 77MM.  

I was quietly hoping that he would not win the award for that reason.  One Cy Young is enough, what I want is multiple World Series Rings!  

2006 Cardinals- An underdog story

by Born in 82 on Dec 5, 2006 9:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

On that note....
You kind of have to use the same logic with Albert.  

He put up MVP numbers, just didn't get the hardware.  

Albert will be due for another contract in 4 years.  Who knows how much it's going to cost.  5 MVPs would cost a lot more than 2 or 3.

It's the only way I can talk my self into not being pissed about this year's vote.

by El Birdo Rojo on Dec 5, 2006 9:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was always kind of glad for the
steroid assisted Bonds seasons, for that reason.

And I'll be even happier if he doesn't get a contract this offseason

by Valatan on Dec 5, 2006 10:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maddux?
If we're looking for 2 years, 200 innings, 4.00-4.5 ERA he could be our man (not to mention a guy that really knows how to pitch - might be a nice presence for the younger guys).  He wouldn't be a development project and he's a very low injury risk.  He could be a bit pricey, but we'd only have to commit to 2 years.  I don't know if he wants to leave the west coast (close to home) but it might be his best chance at one more ring before he quits.  I would see this as an alternative if Schmidt or a trade for a big name doesn't pan out.  This rotation wouldn't be bad:

Carpenter
Maddux
Reyes
Wainwright
Wells

Am I crazy?

by wildman on Dec 5, 2006 9:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

not crazy
It's a crazy sounding idea, and I never would have thought of it, but I have to admit I'm intrigued by it.  I have no idea what he's asking for, but it could be a nice fit if other offers don't work out.

by john vb on Dec 5, 2006 11:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wow
We all know Greg Maddux has gotten 15 or more wins in 18 of the last 19 seasons (13 in '05), but he's also pitched 200 or more innings in 18 of the last 19 seasons as well (199 1/3 in '02).  I think the durability is even more impressive.  He's averaged 233 innings per season over the course of those 19 years.  No way anybody else comes close to that in the modern age of 5-man rotations.

by john vb on Dec 5, 2006 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2 years/$10mm per year
Padres are balking at the 2nd year

by wildman on Dec 5, 2006 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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