allen wrenched . . . . . (alternate title: watson and jetsam)
welcome back; hope you all had a nice xmas. you've learned by now that suppan signed with milwaukee, and very likely you've read walter's words (with which i agree, in this instance) on the virtues of stand-pattism. mulder is expected to make a decision shortly; the cardinals are said to be one of two or three finalists. stay tuned.
i read with interest john sickels' preliminary list of the cardinal system's top 20 prospects, which appeared over the weekend (see DJ87's diary for the list and some reaction). `twas the 2d top-prospect list to appear in recent days, following kevin goldstein's list at baseball prospectus (see Brock 20's diary for the names.) the lists essentially agree; colby rasmus is The Man, jaime garcia is #2, adam ottavino and bryan anderson are the best of the rest. each rater had a surprise in the top 5 --- john jay (#3 on sickels' list) and daryl jones (#5 on goldstein's) --- but in general they're in agreement on the farm system hierarchy, as prospect handicappers are wont. when they're right, they're usually right as a herd --- ditto when they're wrong.
which leads me to today's question for discussion: which cardinal prospect of recent (or not-so-recent) memory were you most wrong about? which would-be future star let you down the worst? set aside rick ankiel, who is perhaps the biggest disappointment in franchise history; he's in a class by himself, so don't bring him up. even if we disqualify him, there's no shortage of candidates: geronimo pena, alan benes, todd zeile, dmitri young, and bud smith all leap immediately to my mind; go back a few more years and names like joe magrane, jim lindeman, and andy rincon enter the mix.
for me, the answer to this question is allen watson. the first year i played in a roto league, i had watson on the taxi squad; when the cards called him up in mid-1993, i fearlessly activated him. this was back in the dark ages before Moneyball and broadband modems and saturation sports coverage; the minor leagues were almost entirely unknown provinces, and something as simple as knowing baseball america's top 100 prospects could give you an advantage in a rotisserie league. watson was #9 on the 1993 list, listed alongside guys like chipper jones and manny ramirez and carlos delgado. he had raced through the minor-league system in two seasons and got to the big leagues at age 22 with a career minor-league era of 2.20 or so. i was convinced he was It.
in his major-league debut, watson tossed six innings of 1-run ball to beat the braves. he struggled for a couple of starts, then reeled off five strong outings in a row, yielding just 5 runs and 21 hits in 33+ innings. by late august he stood at 6-0 with a 2.86 era; my roto team was in 2d place, and i looked like a genius. and then, suddenly . . . . on august 24, watson took the hill at jack murphy stadium in san diego and got bombarded --- faced 10 men and gave up 4 walks, 3 doubles, and a homer. his final line: 8 runs in 2/3 of an inning. the cardinals lost 17-4; watson wouldn't win another game that year. my roto team fell to 5th place.
watson lasted two more years with st louis, with an era well over 5.00; his career era in 8 seasons was 5.03. no other flop stung me quite like that one (excepting ankiel, of course).
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84 comments
Comments
Jim Lindeman...
I was crazy about Todd Zeile when I was a kid, so I probably over projected him or built him up too much in my mind. He had a good career, but I thought, as kids are apt to do, that he was going to be the second coming of Stan Musial.
Same era. Dimitri Young anyone? Anyone want to admit to hording his cards in the late 80's early 90s?
I will admit that I was really wrong about Pujols. It seems ages ago but he was not supposed to break camp and came on like gang busters to make the team. Boy, I've never been so happy to be wrong about something.
by Brock20 on Dec 26, 2006 9:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Young
by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 26, 2006 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember...
by WiscCard on Dec 26, 2006 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Lindeman
by Jonathan23 on Dec 26, 2006 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
great game
by stlsportsfan on Dec 26, 2006 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lindeman
As for surprises, easily its Albert Pujols. Even after his first year I expected a sophmore jinx. Even this past year I expected him to miss very significant time with an injury. He did get hurt and it was relatively serious, but he still played close to 140 games.
by Number47 on Dec 26, 2006 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Notes on Sup as well...
Thanks for all your work Soup.
by Brock20 on Dec 26, 2006 9:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Royce Clayton
by OKCardsfan on Dec 26, 2006 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Paul Colman
by birdsonthehat on Dec 26, 2006 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The immortal John Santor
He led the league in just about everything, and Baseball Prospectus (which I'd just started reading) gave him a minor-league EQA that made him look like a future superstar.
When it turned out that BA was right, and Santor only dominated the NY-P because it was his third season in short-season ball, I felt like an idiot, but learned an important lesson: You have to consider a lot more than some isolated stats when you evaluate a minor leaguer.
Personal issues aside, I think the biggest disappointment in all my years as a Cards fan is Paul Coleman. At the time, he was the earliest draft pick in the Cards' history. IIRC, we took him sixth that year. The White Sox picked seventh ... and took Frank Thomas.
The other really frustrating draft pick was Shaun Boyd, the 13th overall pick in the 2000 draft. He looked great for one season in the Midwest League (his second season in the league -- shades of Santor), but other than that was a pure bust.
The opportunity cost wasn't as bad as it was when we took Coleman, but it's worth noting that the Phils got Chase Utley two picks later.
by Lou Schuler on Dec 26, 2006 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jimmy Journel...
by jpsell45 on Dec 26, 2006 10:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes....
I take the whole hindsight thing with a grain of salt. Except for situations where a team takes a guy who is obviously not slotted right, then we can bad mouth the pick and all the guys who came after.
Its like the girl or guy who all of us passed up in school. Then you see her or him, (I'm being correct for the couple of female cards fan on this site) usually around the holidays somewhere and turns out they are gorgoues and on top of that went to medical school and volunteers time to help kids with Aids in Mali or something.
Then again, the women probably saw the potential and married the guy. Women are a lot better at the draft and follow than boys.
by Brock20 on Dec 26, 2006 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen this yet????
Angry German Cub Fan
by El Birdo Rojo on Dec 26, 2006 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rene Arocha
I also remember Buck and Shannon talking about how nasty it was to call that game as the smoke lingered in the press box from the fire.
by raisin on Dec 26, 2006 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Alan Benes
by chuckb on Dec 26, 2006 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Like Ankiel, it was his only full season in the bigs.
by musial6 on Dec 26, 2006 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alan Benes & Alicea
I don't think it's fair to include Alan Benes in this discussion, however, because he was a stud in the making before he was hurt. It's not like they missed on the draft, or he got in a bar fight and hurt his shoulder. Injuries happen. Oh what might have been.
by Pokey Joe on Dec 26, 2006 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
luis alicea
by nybirdfan on Dec 26, 2006 10:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's mine, too
by wildman on Dec 27, 2006 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jiminez
When I was a kid I remember really hoping Joe Magrane would do really well.
by AirForceCardsFan on Dec 26, 2006 11:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jiminez and Bud Smith
The fact that we got nice returns (including Kile and Rolen) for them disqualifies them from being disapointments (for Cardinals fans anyway).
by musial6 on Dec 26, 2006 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Heity Cruz
by lerwin1 on Dec 26, 2006 11:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
with all the advancements in
by erik on Dec 26, 2006 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fernando Tatis
by sjoshi on Dec 26, 2006 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
From a purely Cardinals perspective, J.D. Drew
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 26, 2006 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Von McDaniel is my nominee
Something happened to his arm and he never won another game.
By the way, I was at the infamous Allen Watson game in San Diego. The Padres scored thirteen runs in the bottom of the first inning and Zeile led off the top of the second by being thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double. That's the earliest I ever left a game.
by DizzyDean17 on Dec 26, 2006 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting List
by jpenn44 on Dec 26, 2006 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
great list
by arthropodtodd on Dec 26, 2006 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Superb list.
by orlando card on Dec 26, 2006 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Donovan Osborne
by walkingunderwear on Dec 26, 2006 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
so many
way number one is a guy like jd drew, who showed great promise, even at the major league level, but was thwarted mainly by injury and not lack of talent, here are the guys in this list of disappointments:
drew
alan benes
lindeman
osborne
magrane
then you have the second type who was just hyped and never made the majors, or did little when he got there
paul coleman
journell
bud smith (what did he do besides the no-hitter)
watson
gall
the paul coleman thing pissed me off when they got him, and still does because big frank was in the majors in less than two months after that draft, and how the cards let him pass is beyond me, at the time it was a bit of a headscratcher, but with hindsight you want to beat someone, i really wonder if at the time it was the brewery afraid to spend the money to sign him because he was so majorleague ready
by bigcardsfan5 on Dec 26, 2006 1:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Minor League Disappointments
The Redbirds had produced Willie McGee, Vince Coleman, Todd Worrell and others. And one year a great Louisville team drew a million fans, more than some major league teams.
But then, the quality of baseball declined and the Redbirds were plagued by bad choices and bad conditioning.
Two catchers that passed through Louisville, Todd Zeile and Eli Marrero, gave Cardinal fans hope. They appeared to be building block catchers, who could hit and run. And although Zeile had a long career, his intensity matched J.D. Drew and Marrero was plagued by physical problems.
But one factor lead to the decline of the Redbirds and Cardinal farm system. The Louisville team was always in horrible physical shape. Teams, like Buffalo, that already traveled with a strength and conditioning coach would come to Louisville with bigger, stronger athletes and just clobber the Birds.
I once participated in a 5K race that ended at the stadium and after the race was talking to one of the Redbirds. He asked how far we had run, and I told him 3.1 miles. He smiled and said, I don't think anybody on this team can run to the centerfield fence.
In the latter days of the Busch stewardship, the Redbirds were a collection of pitchers with bad arms and position players with heavy legs. Baseball had passed the Cardinals in terms of player development and physical fitness.
Now, they seem to be making something of a comeback. But it will take a long time to overcome that slow decline, that we saw in the 90's.
Of course, the Louisville ownership was not sad to see the Cardinals farmclub move to Memphis, where the results have not been much better.
We continue to excel at the major league level because of Walt Jocketty's genius at acquiring players, but sadly Triple A remains a scrap heap.
All those disappointing players were the product of a farm system gone bad.
by Louisville Slugger on Dec 26, 2006 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Willie McGee
He was a Yankee farmhand stolen in a deal for Bob Sykes prior to the 1982 season. Sykes was totally worthless after that and the Yankees cried "foul".
Unfortunately, the Cardinals did a make-up deal with the Yankees at the end of the '82 season, handing them Stan Javier and Bobby Meacham for the equivalent of a bag of balls.
by DizzyDean17 on Dec 26, 2006 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ah the good old days
by nybirdfan on Dec 27, 2006 9:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Memphis
I would have to go with Bud Smith. Come on. With AB owning the team, a guy named "Bud" could have been real promising. I loved watching him pitch when he was in Memphis. But the no-hitter was his one and only high point in the Bigs. He never stayed consistent.
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 26, 2006 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think he's still available
by Carps on Dec 26, 2006 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are
by onephinepeace on Dec 26, 2006 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cris Carpenter
by MarTeezy on Dec 26, 2006 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I thought this was interesting from Will Carroll
There are also several trades in the works, including the long-rumored Randy Johnson to Arizona deal and one three-team deal that has three BIG names. I'm going to tease you with the last one because it's close enough that reporting it just might jinx it.
by Carps on Dec 26, 2006 4:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Follow up post on BP
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=120
It also indicates things aren't as close as previously believed.
by punditmoi on Dec 26, 2006 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he clarified
That was the first team that came to my mind but AJones has 10-5 rights and seems determined to test the FA market - thank you Boras - and Hudson seems like a shade of the pitcher he was in Oakland - thank you Bill Beane - so I'm not sure who else they would move. Chipper still is the face of the franchise and he recently restructured his contract to help the payroll, can't see him going anywhere. Smoltz would seem like a prime candidate to move but again he's a very prominent figure (10-5 rights again). If he gets shipped out that seems like they are just going to throw away next season.
If I was Schuerholz, I'd look to move AJones and Smoltz. Smoltz could land a few top young prospects (think budding superstar Markakis, Penn/Cabrera/Loewen and some younger prospects from Baltimore for example). What I still find amazing is the chase for bullpen arms in ATL. They keep pursuing mediocre arms hoping that someone will put it together (Soriano was a nice pickup, however, even with the health concerns). Relievers are, imho, the most fungible commodity in the game (outside of your Mariano's and Joe Nathan's) but ATL seems unable to find them or raise anyone out of the minors (Joey Devine what happened to you?).
===========
I have a secret confession. I wish Bo Hart had been able to stick. I know he wasn't ever that good but watching those games with my family - who aren't stat-trolls like I am - made it hard not to like Hart. Not that he was ever a superstar in the making but still...
by azruavatar on Dec 26, 2006 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
john gall too
by azruavatar on Dec 26, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bud smith, definitely
by DanUpBaby on Dec 26, 2006 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Broken wings
Beazley hurt his arm pitching in the Army after the '42 season. Martinez developed elbow problems, apparently in '80, and Fulgham hurt his shoulder that same year. Spinks wrecked his knee sliding into Johnny Bench.
Dizzy Dean, Paul Dean, Von McDaniel, Joe McGrane, Alan Benes. . . .
by unclegrubworm on Dec 26, 2006 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oops
by unclegrubworm on Dec 26, 2006 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jiminez and Smith may
by punchinjudy on Dec 26, 2006 5:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and you guys are forgetting
by punchinjudy on Dec 26, 2006 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
McGwire
by svengali on Dec 26, 2006 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
60s farm system vs today
What we have had coming out since 1990 is not very impressive. Except for Pujols, what really top notch player has come out of the St. Louis system? And the fact that so many of our people misjudged Albert's potential may be even more of an indictment of those who are doing the judging.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 26, 2006 5:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Didn't we have a much larger farm system then?
by Carps on Dec 26, 2006 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's true
Later, they did the same with position players.
Way back to Branch Rickey, the St. Louis farm system was always one of the best in baseball. I don't think it even comes close today.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 26, 2006 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oui
by unclegrubworm on Dec 26, 2006 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In the early 1950s
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 27, 2006 8:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Questionable trades
Moon was traded for Gino Cimoli after the '58 season, when Moon slumped after putting up 4 consecutive seasons of right around .300 with pretty good pop. Cimoli had one decent year for us and then was gone for Ron Kline in another disappointing trade.
The Virdon trade was awful. Virdon was a very good CF and a capable hitter, although he didn't have much power. We got Dick Littlefield and Bobby Del Greco for him early in '56, right after his ROY season in '55. Littlefield started 2 games for us and didn't win either. Del Greco hit .215. Neither were back in '57.
by unclegrubworm on Dec 27, 2006 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, Bobby Del Greco
What the Cardinals could have done with Musial, Virdon and Moon in the outfield. Or Musial at first with Repulski in LF, as it more likely would have been.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 27, 2006 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
apples and oranges...
but even still, the Cards have done alright in the past decade. Pujols, Drew, Morris, Kennedy, Looper, Molina, Haren, Marrero, etc. and there are some intriguing guys with the jury still out like Duncan and Reyes.
wasn't Coco Crisp originally drafted by the Cards?
who else?
by kindred on Dec 27, 2006 1:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Kennedy, Jack Smith, Looper were young players we didn't consider untouchable, and I think we were better off as a result, particularly since we ended up with two of them as "good value" veteran pickups.
Maybe it's true for all teams, but, as the topic of this thread suggests, we seem to have a frustrating number of high draft picks--like Journell and Chad Hutchinson--who fizzle out.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 27, 2006 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can add
by Youneverknow on Dec 27, 2006 1:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Misjudged Albert?
He didn't exactly languish in our farm system. What exactly do you mean by that statement?
by DizzyDean17 on Dec 27, 2006 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant simply
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 27, 2006 8:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Albert
by cardfan2 on Dec 27, 2006 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody missed Albert
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 27, 2006 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bud Smith's team
The current roster includes three left handed pitchers who reached the major leagues: Adam Pettyjohn, Alan Newman, and Bud Smith. In July 2006, former major league star José Canseco was traded to the team and plays as a designated hitter and pitcher.
by Carps on Dec 26, 2006 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Did LaRussa and Duncan ever really like Bud Smith?
LaRussa also seemed not so reluctant to give up Adam Kennedy when the right veteran player (Edmonds) was available in exchange. He had his eyes on Vina, who performed well for us during that period.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 26, 2006 6:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Garry Templeton
Templeton's offensive stats, below, are every bit as impressive as Ankiels pitching stats, even more impressive when we consider that he performed at a very high level, especially for a shortstop, for five and one half years.
Templeton also had great range and a powerful arm at shortstop. In those first six years with the Cardinals, he looked like he would break most career hitting records for the Cardinals at shortstop. His season in 1979 is probably the best single offensive season ever by a Cardinal shortstop.
But his eventual disrespectful gestures and demeanor toward fans, coaches, teammates, and management provoked a shocking ending to what had been a spectacular beginning to his career.
Trading him for Ozzie made it all okay in the end, though. Too bad the Cardinals didn't trade Ankiel when his stock was so high, but, then, everyone would have thought they were crazy to trade him considering his potential before he fell apart.
Templeton's stats in his first full season, 1977:
HITS 200
AVG .322
OBP . 336
SLG .449
OPS .785
SB 28
CS 24
HR 8
Templeton's stats in 1979:
HITS 211 (100 or more from both sides, right and left)
AVG .322
OBP . 336
SLG .449
OPS .785
SB 28
CS 24
HR 8
by CardsWin on Dec 26, 2006 6:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie added excellent offense AND supreme defense
Ozzie Smith's 1987 season offensively:
Hits 182
AVG .303
OBP .392
SLG .383
OPS .775
SB 43
CS 9
HR 0
by CardsWin on Dec 26, 2006 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The stat...
The amazing thing is that when all was said and done both players ended with identical career OPS+.
by guayzimi on Dec 26, 2006 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Templeton might have benefitted from a mentor.
by CardsWin on Dec 27, 2006 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oops! Here are Templeton's 1979 CORRECT stats.
HITS 211 (100 or more from both sides, right and left)
AVG .314
OBP . 331
SLG .458
OPS .789
SB 26
CS 10
HR 9
by CardsWin on Dec 26, 2006 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Even to the end of his career
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 26, 2006 11:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You can't
by cardsrul on Dec 26, 2006 11:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone have an image
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2006 2:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jason Simontacchi
by Phyrkrakr on Dec 27, 2006 2:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My vote
by Elvis on Dec 27, 2006 9:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree on this one
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 27, 2006 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Get out!
by RedbirdRay on Dec 27, 2006 10:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
right...
by azruavatar on Dec 27, 2006 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
apparently
by effin fisk on Dec 27, 2006 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You shouldn't have clicked on those links then...
Lowers head in shame.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2006 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs



















