Baseball Prospectus' Cards System Evaluation...

by Brock20 on Dec 21, 2006 1:46 PM EST Comment 12 comments

Over at BaseballProspectus, Kevin Goldstien has his top ten Cardinal prospect list up. Really, very few suprises...

Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, cf
Good Prospects

Jaime Garcia, lhp
Adam Ottavino, rhp
Bryan Anderson, c
Daryl Jones, of

Average Prospects

Chris Perez, rhp
Blake Hawksworth, rhp
Mark McCormick, rhp
Cody Haerther, of
Tyler Greene, ss

The commentary is behind the subscription wall. My few thoughts are that I'm suprised to see Chris Perez ranked after Daryl Jones, but the difference between being ranked five versus six is so slight I'm willing to live with it.

In comparision, John Sickels' pre-season top ten looked like this (Avaiable at minorleagueball.com)

Reyes B+
Rasmus B+
Haether B+
Greene B-
Wain. B-
McCormick B-
Stainhova B-
Anderson B-
Hanson C+
Lambert C+

Many guys from this year's draft already jumping into the top ten. Seems to me that is an indication of two things: 1) First, how lousy our farm system was before this year and 2) The fact we drafted a lot of college talent that is farther along in development. That makes sense when you are trying to re-stock the system, but the Cards need to move away from that in a couple years and draft more high ceiling/high risk guys.

To me, it seems like quite a few of our prospects are at make it or break periods. Our attention should be focused on the Palm Beach Cardinals as Ottavino, Greene, Colby, McCormick and the unlisted John Jay and Mark Hamilton will all probably start the season there. Greene, Stanhovia, Haether, and Lambert all face proving periods where they have to figure it out or risk getting left behind the system. Greene struggled at High A so much last year that he was demoted back to Low A, where he put things back together. Haether was injured half the year at Springfield, which, combined with his lack of power, could spell the end for any hope of his being a regular corner outfielder.

A couple of guys go unlisted on both lists: John Jay, Mark Hamilton, Amaury Marti (the secret Cuban) and Dennis Dove, who we assigned to the AFL for extra work and performed respectably in a very hitter friendly league. Sickels should post his Cardinal top twenty some time after the new year. I'll let everyone know when he does as he takes questions on the rankings.

Incidentally, today Sickels issued his ratings on the A's and gave Barton a B.

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Comments

I've been waiting for this one to come out...

No excellent prospects... I guess I kind of expected that.

Where's Jon Jay?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 21, 2006 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

in the next week or so

i'm hoping to have a top prospect list at my blog, Future Redbirds. I'm taking a pretty objective approach. I've already completed the hitters, barring some tweaks. Basically, I looked at things like contact rates, walk rates, isolated power, as well taking into consideration things such as size and age and what level a player is at.

I agree a lot so far with Goldstein's list, though I'm not at as high on Haerther, and no where near as high on Greene as he is.

Go Crazy, Folks!

Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 21, 2006 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jones/perez

i am also a little surprised at the jones/perez ranking, particularly because jones was designated as a 'good' prospect and perez as 'average'. maybe there is a bias against relief prospects? still, i was suprised jones was listed as good. i know he has the tools, it just seems he hasnt done much with them. he is still a kid though (will be 20 next year).

i wonder where narveson ranks? i think i would have put him above haerther. lambert probably needs to be converted to the bullpen.

by dmb60614 on Dec 21, 2006 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jay

I have a BP sub and just read the article.

He has Jay at #11 and Hamilton at #12, with Blake King picked as his "sleeper."

Jay is an interesting case -- you hear all kinds of superlatives about him ("potential batting champ"), but others say he's a future fourth outfielder.

BTW, while the Cards don't have any "excellent" prospects, their total number of "very good" and "good" is five, which is consistent with most of the other NL writeups I've seen from BP. And almost all of the guys mentioned were drafted in '05 and '06 (the exceptions are Hawksworth and Haerther). That says a lot about the quality of those drafts ... or the weakness of the ones preceding them.

by Lou Schuler on Dec 21, 2006 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i'd like to see

them draft more high school talent. For example, last year they took high schooler Jon Edwards. Now there's a sleeper. 19 years old, 6'5, 230 pound outfielder with an 11% walk rate and a .200 ISO power in rookie ball.

Go Crazy, Folks!

Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 21, 2006 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe not now...

The system is really, really thin right now. I think the approach of signing some projectable, albeit slightly above break out, players make sense to fill out the minor league roster. I believe the best approach is to break down the mix to the more agressive side as we fill out the minor league roster with guys that are more conservative, not in politics but in future potential.

That said, there are couple guys missing off this list who are not necessiarily prospects but are valueable roster fill ins. Let's talk about Josh Kinney and Chris Narverson.

More so than other system, I think a lot of our players are at make it or break it points. There are quite a few guys who need to prove that they are ready to move on. The Palm Beach team will be one to watch.

by Brock20 on Dec 21, 2006 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Draft

I'd also like to see them have a better mix and draft some more HS players. Unfortunately, under Luhnow the Card's scouting dept. is becoming more stats-oriented than even Oakland. I wouldn't be surprised to see more college heavy drafts. Not that I don't like college guys, but you will miss out on some great talent if you refuse to take some HS guys with higher ceilings in the early rounds.

by Baseball addict on Dec 21, 2006 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Daryl Jones

Can someone fill me in on Daryl Jones. I try to keep up with what is going on in our minor league system but I have not heard of Jones.

by ARCARDSFAN on Dec 21, 2006 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jones

i dont know much about him, but he was a very good football player coming out of high school, he even had a schlorship to play wide receiver at a big 12 school, cardinals drafted him and he decided to play baseball, i think hes been in the short season league, so far his numbers arent that impressive but he is still very young

by truemun12 on Dec 21, 2006 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jones

That's all I know -- incredible speed and a lot of power potential, but very raw as a baseball player.

He's only 20, though (turns 21 in June), so the Cards can afford to move him up a level at a time.

Focusing on baseball from February to October (counting fall instructional league) for a few years should give him every chance to succeed.

by Lou Schuler on Dec 21, 2006 4:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think

Hawksworth has a higher ceiling than he does, and I'm a little loathe to include a relief pitcher in the low minors so high in the rankings, but basically like I expected.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 22, 2006 8:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

First Inning

How is it that I'd never seen the First Inning website until just now? It's got the most comprehensive stats I've seen for the Cards' top 12 prospects—spray charts and three-year forecasts from their own projection system.

by liam on Dec 22, 2006 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs