good glovin'
nl gold glove awards to be announced later today. molina and pujols are the cards' best bets for some hardware; neither has won one before. the cardinal franchise has won over 70 gold gloves, which i believe is the highest total of any team.
defensive stat guru chris dial already has unveiled his own list of gold glovers, which includes only one cardinal: yadi. another cardinal, an outfielder, might have made dial's list but for lack of playing time --- and i'm not talking about edmonds. by dial's measurements, juan encarnacion saved more runs per unit of playing time than any right fielder in the league. but he spent so much time playing center that his overall run-prevention as an RF suffered; he trailed brian giles by 3 runs as a result. giles and encarnacion paced the competition by a wide margin. encarnacion was also the single most valuable glove on the st louis team, per these lists. here are the cardinal starters, and their runs prevented as measured by dial:
| encarnacion | 9 |
| molina | 8 |
| eckstein | 7 |
| edmonds | 6 |
| rolen | 5 |
| miles | 1 |
| pujols | 0 |
no st louis left fielder logged enough innings at the position to qualify for inclusion on dial's list.
dial bases his defensive evaluations on zone rating, defined as "the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive `zone', as measured by STATS reporters." he admits that ZR is an imperfect measurement system, but dial's results true up pretty well with the best-regarded defensive metric, UZR (a souped-up version of zone rating) --- and they're available for free. advanced defensive stats inevitably generate debate; the suggestion the juan encarnacion was the cards' most valuable defender might draw a challenge or two. i'm neither defending nor criticizing these conclusions, merely offering them up for discussion.
the cardinals' infield defense was good but not great in 2006, according to dial. eckstein and rolen saved 12 runs between them; in his best years, rolen used to save twice as many runs as that by himself. pujols grades out as a neutral defensive player, which result i would question; two of his better talents (scooping low throws and cutting down the lead runner on bunts) are invisible under this system. edmonds rates above average among centerfielders, maintaining some run-saving ability well into his 30s --- which is more than other over-30 cfs (andruw, junior) can say.
this is only one of several freely published defensive rating systems (gassko's Range, dave pinto's PMR, and the rally monkey's system being some others). i tend not to trust any single rating in isolation, but when a player scores well (or poorly) by all the yardsticks, it lends credibility to the conclusion. the cardinals assign greater weight to defensive ability (and stat-based measurement systems) than other organizations, perhaps because UZR's creator, mitchel lichtman, used to be on the st louis payroll. accordingly, it's worth paying attention to these defensive metrics, because they can sometimes shed light on jocketty's decisions. two of the outfielders st louis went after last winter, encarnacion and larry bigbie, both scored well on every defensive scale. be interesting to see whether (and to what degree) defense informs this winter's roster rebuild.
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Comments
Baffled?
Molina also benefitted from an injured favorite (Matheny) but Yadi proved this year that he is looking like Pudge Jr. That's really what I missed by not getting to watch the WS. I can't think of a time before where both catchers SCARED the opposing teams as much as this year. Not that the Cards or Tigers ran a lot to begin with, but Yadi did the job well the whole playoff run. It just doesn't seem to gain that much attention because it stick out like a home run or a diving Rolen stop.
I was even more surprised to hear about JuanEnc being the best defensive Cardinal. That makes me wonder if a permanent shift to center isn't on the table for STL. Sure, Edmonds could be serviceable for a year to two, but if the Cards can't move Enc, put him in center.
by gforce on Nov 3, 2006 6:27 AM EST 0 recs
Enc
by cardzfanbub on Nov 3, 2006 8:16 AM EST 0 recs
I do NOT understand that feeling
Every time I expect to see him show off his supposed plus arm, the runner keeps going to 3rd and Juan throws to the cutoff man.
Granted, he seemed more comfortable in center, but I just cannot believe this stat showing him as real plus fielder.
by sdrone on
Nov 3, 2006 11:06 AM EST
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Juan
I think maybe in CF where he wouldn't have to go to the corner, he'd do better.
I think we're in a position right now where we're going to have 2 players making very little money. It's either going to be both corner outfielders or 1 outfielder and 2B. And I can easily see Duncan staying around if he improves his defense in the offseason.
by redbird2006in on
Nov 3, 2006 11:36 AM EST
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The Price is Right
by Baily on
Nov 3, 2006 7:47 PM EST
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juan
by vince eating tarp on Nov 3, 2006 8:39 AM EST 0 recs
I don't
Of course, I qualify all this by stating I never cared for JuanE's game dating back to his rookie year when I lived in Michigan and he played for Detroit. So I've had a long standing issue with this guy's game and perhaps I can't get over my distaste for it the same way I've never been able to like broccoli, even though I keep reading about all the benefits it offers. Heaven help me if JuanE becomes the Cardinals' everyday CF!
by Baily on
Nov 3, 2006 11:14 AM EST
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there's no subjective element to zone rating
Enc has always looked like a good outfielder to me, he positions himself well.
by DanUpBaby on
Nov 3, 2006 2:07 PM EST
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i tried to think that juan had an effortless style
by jojo5492 on
Nov 3, 2006 11:54 AM EST
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Enc
I don't like him.
by SirVLCIV on Nov 3, 2006 8:41 AM EST 0 recs
3B
So, who is Rolen's biggest competition in GG voting this year? Zimmerman? Aramis? Cabrera?
by ArachNerd on Nov 3, 2006 8:57 AM EST 0 recs
rolen
with that in mind, dont be surprised if rolen and edmonds win, and yadi or pujols doesnt, it is a lot harder to win that first gold glove, than it is to keep winning year after year
remember, palmeiro won at first base one year when he played 6, (yes 6), games at first, and dh'ed the rest of the time
by bigcardsfan5 on
Nov 3, 2006 9:13 AM EST
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I'm pretty sure Phil Garner
by itsalemmon1019 on
Nov 3, 2006 9:41 AM EST
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GG @ 3rd
by _pistol_ on
Nov 3, 2006 9:58 AM EST
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maybe...
by ArachNerd on
Nov 3, 2006 10:06 AM EST
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Future Card?
Walt, buy now!!!
by Matt on Nov 3, 2006 9:18 AM EST 0 recs
aren't the outfield gold glove awards
by ilillillli on
Nov 3, 2006 10:47 AM EST
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If
*good guy
by Alxfritz on Nov 3, 2006 9:55 AM EST 0 recs
Crap
nothing ruins a joke like bad grammer!
by Schnake on
Nov 3, 2006 10:02 AM EST
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zone rating
by BigJawnMize on Nov 3, 2006 10:54 AM EST 0 recs
The number is
After a couple years of watching Eck every day, how many people are willing to say he's much better defensively than he is given credit for? MGL set the standard with his defensive system. He was still consulting for the Cardinals when we signed Eckstein. I wish he was still with the team now, but I take consolation in other recent signs the Cardinals are promoting the progressive minded.
Eckstein for 3 per year or Renteria for 10 per year seems like such an obvious choice now, doesn't it?
by RedbirdRay on
Nov 3, 2006 11:04 AM EST
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Yes, I understand that...
by BigJawnMize on
Nov 3, 2006 12:27 PM EST
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naiverly,
Then, using this OPB, you can go and use it as a probability (which it is), and use it to calculate the chance that, before three outs are used, that a runner will be advanced around the bases. Subtract off the average performance, and multiply by innings played in the defensive postion, and you have an idea of the number of runs saved defensively over the course of a season.
by Valatan on
Nov 3, 2006 12:34 PM EST
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I pickin up what you are laying down...
by BigJawnMize on
Nov 3, 2006 1:23 PM EST
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Jocketty to talk with Mulder, maybe Gonzo
If we do indeed sign Gonzo, move Duncan from LF to RF and trade Juan for cash or prospects.
by cardsfan84 on Nov 3, 2006 10:57 AM EST 0 recs
I have virtually no interest in Gonzo
With the problems this team had hitting lefties last year that's my biggest concern with a Gonzo signing.
by azruavatar on
Nov 3, 2006 11:22 AM EST
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I can see
by RichK on Nov 3, 2006 10:59 AM EST 0 recs
Fielding Stats
But if it means anything to anyone...
Baseball Prospectus' RATE statistic, which they define as:
A way to look at the fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc.
Rates Pujols as a 112 for this year, or 12 runs above average. The other name I've heard tossed out a lot for another firstbase gold glove is Todd Helton. Acording to this same metric, Helton rates a 102 for 2006. Advantage Pujols?
Plus, it seems if bats help to win gold gloves. I don't have time to look up the numbers, but Pujols seems to be doing OK in that regard.
by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 11:02 AM EST 0 recs
Preston Wilson
By the way, if you read the whole article, he rates Chavez as the best OF in all the NL. You don't suppose we could pry him away from the Mets, do you?
by Zubin on Nov 3, 2006 11:02 AM EST 0 recs
No
by FanInNY on
Nov 3, 2006 1:11 PM EST
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Endy Chavez
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents?oldTeamId=21
by Zubin on
Nov 3, 2006 1:18 PM EST
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Derick Goold
It's not too encouraging, but some reasons for optimism. It seems to me that the top 30 list for next year will be much more exciting.
by OCCardsFan on Nov 3, 2006 11:06 AM EST 0 recs
Adam Ottavino?
Jay looked great this year, last time that I checked.
Whatever happened to the veils of hype and mystery that surrounded Amauray Marti (sp)?
Adam Wainwright 6th? Wuh?
by ilillillli on
Nov 3, 2006 11:15 AM EST
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whoops...
by ilillillli on
Nov 3, 2006 11:17 AM EST
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This list was pre-2006
by Just Rope Ball on
Nov 3, 2006 11:24 AM EST
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Marti is putting up a +900 OPS in the AFL
by Valatan on
Nov 3, 2006 11:29 AM EST
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Most teams prospect...
by BigJawnMize on
Nov 3, 2006 11:26 AM EST
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Before ppl are so quick to discount Dial...
Hard to believe considering Dial is definitely not a Cardinal fan.
by RedbirdRay on Nov 3, 2006 11:09 AM EST 0 recs
Not hard to believe at all--
More power to him, and to other like-minded individuals.
by salvomania on
Nov 3, 2006 11:48 AM EST
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Rolen
by cardsrul on
Nov 3, 2006 12:03 PM EST
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Being the best defensive SS ever...
by Big Rev on
Nov 3, 2006 1:23 PM EST
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Interesting Indeed
Will be curious to see how many guys on this list (a.) get a legit shot during spring training &
(b.) end up on the club at some point during the season. Especially some of the OFers. If for some odd reason none of the FAs return (Edmonds, Wilson, Taguchi, Spiezio), that leaves just JuanE from the right side of the plate and Duncan, J-Rod, Bigbie and Schumaker from the left side.
What's the projection time to the big leagues of guys like Rasmus, Stavinoha, Gorecki and (if ever) Ankiel?
by Baily on Nov 3, 2006 11:41 AM EST 0 recs
Odd, saw it on a website
by sdrone on
Nov 3, 2006 12:08 PM EST
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Not too surprising---
There wasn't a whole lot of difference between them, and maybe Carp, as someone who won it with a much better season just last year, wasn't seen as the best guy to win a "repeat."
If he hadn't completely spit the bit in his last two starts, he'd have won the award (he'd have led the league in both wins and ERA). But he pitched horribly, allowing the other guys to make it a horse race.
And for me, it's enough having 2006 feature the Cardinals as "Worst World Series Winner Ever" without having Carp be "Worst (or at least, lowest-winning) Cy Young Winner Ever."
by salvomania on
Nov 3, 2006 12:12 PM EST
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Nope.
NL Cy Young is announced November 14th
by Fitz on
Nov 3, 2006 12:38 PM EST
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No way
I'm pretty sure they just give out 3 OF gold gloves anyway so why did he even break down all three positions.
My Gold Gloves:
1B-Pujols
2B-Jose Valentin
3B-Rolen or Zimmerman
SS-Believe it or not Visquel
OF-A. Jones
OF-Beltran
OF-Edmonds
C-Molina
P-Maddux(Who else??)
by Bird Watcher on Nov 3, 2006 12:49 PM EST 0 recs
edmonds
by PGeorge on
Nov 3, 2006 1:24 PM EST
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Valentin won't win at 2nd....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Nov 3, 2006 1:44 PM EST
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Adam
by DimitroffVodka on
Nov 3, 2006 1:55 PM EST
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MVP...
by lopey986 on Nov 3, 2006 12:50 PM EST 0 recs
one stat to me hands down gives it to Hombre
Plus the fact that AP numbers were not that far off from Howard...take into consideration he missed 17 games, and to even be close to him to me is a feat.
by punchinjudy on
Nov 3, 2006 12:53 PM EST
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Word
by BigdJC on
Nov 3, 2006 2:09 PM EST
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"take into consideration....
A lot of voters will do just that, and by that measure will vote for Howard because of his superior durability in the thick of a race...
by salvomania on Nov 3, 2006 12:57 PM EST 0 recs
in the thick of a race?
by lopey986 on
Nov 3, 2006 1:19 PM EST
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Does it really matter
by cardsrul on Nov 3, 2006 1:51 PM EST 0 recs
Did you guys see
by DimitroffVodka on Nov 3, 2006 1:57 PM EST 0 recs
Actually...
by lopey986 on
Nov 3, 2006 2:06 PM EST
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BY FAR?!!?!
Don't get me wrong, I liked Grudz, and I wish he would have stayed around, but I wouldn't call it the biggest mistake of what was a pretty lousy offseason. It certainly wasn't the biggest mistake by far.
by ilillillli on
Nov 3, 2006 2:11 PM EST
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oh my god...
by lopey986 on
Nov 3, 2006 2:15 PM EST
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It wasn't that bad...
If you want the Carps of the world, you have to endure some Ponsons.
by guayzimi on
Nov 3, 2006 3:19 PM EST
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Ponson
by farley503 on
Nov 3, 2006 3:22 PM EST
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JuanE tops the list
by Baily on
Nov 3, 2006 7:54 PM EST
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Who would you have taken?
I hear a lot of 'Enc sucks', 'enc sucks', 'enc sucks' from you, but what would you have done?
by Valatan on
Nov 4, 2006 3:51 PM EST
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Eh
I actually am kinda' content with every move made in the last 12 months now.
We did win the World Series, right? Cause I'm thinking about smoking some drugs and all of October may very well have been some bizzare, elaborate "flash-forward."
We're World Champs, right?
by Alxfritz on
Nov 3, 2006 2:18 PM EST
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Good for Grudz...
I was also surprised to see the guy is only a year and half away from 2,000 hits as well.
by guayzimi on
Nov 3, 2006 3:20 PM EST
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