good glovin'

by lboros on Nov 3, 2006 5:54 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

nl gold glove awards to be announced later today. molina and pujols are the cards' best bets for some hardware; neither has won one before. the cardinal franchise has won over 70 gold gloves, which i believe is the highest total of any team.

defensive stat guru chris dial already has unveiled his own list of gold glovers, which includes only one cardinal: yadi. another cardinal, an outfielder, might have made dial's list but for lack of playing time --- and i'm not talking about edmonds. by dial's measurements, juan encarnacion saved more runs per unit of playing time than any right fielder in the league. but he spent so much time playing center that his overall run-prevention as an RF suffered; he trailed brian giles by 3 runs as a result. giles and encarnacion paced the competition by a wide margin. encarnacion was also the single most valuable glove on the st louis team, per these lists. here are the cardinal starters, and their runs prevented as measured by dial:

encarnacion	9
molina	8
eckstein	7
edmonds	6
rolen	5
miles	1
pujols	0

no st louis left fielder logged enough innings at the position to qualify for inclusion on dial's list.

dial bases his defensive evaluations on zone rating, defined as "the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive `zone', as measured by STATS reporters." he admits that ZR is an imperfect measurement system, but dial's results true up pretty well with the best-regarded defensive metric, UZR (a souped-up version of zone rating) --- and they're available for free. advanced defensive stats inevitably generate debate; the suggestion the juan encarnacion was the cards' most valuable defender might draw a challenge or two. i'm neither defending nor criticizing these conclusions, merely offering them up for discussion.

the cardinals' infield defense was good but not great in 2006, according to dial. eckstein and rolen saved 12 runs between them; in his best years, rolen used to save twice as many runs as that by himself. pujols grades out as a neutral defensive player, which result i would question; two of his better talents (scooping low throws and cutting down the lead runner on bunts) are invisible under this system. edmonds rates above average among centerfielders, maintaining some run-saving ability well into his 30s --- which is more than other over-30 cfs (andruw, junior) can say.

this is only one of several freely published defensive rating systems (gassko's Range, dave pinto's PMR, and the rally monkey's system being some others). i tend not to trust any single rating in isolation, but when a player scores well (or poorly) by all the yardsticks, it lends credibility to the conclusion. the cardinals assign greater weight to defensive ability (and stat-based measurement systems) than other organizations, perhaps because UZR's creator, mitchel lichtman, used to be on the st louis payroll. accordingly, it's worth paying attention to these defensive metrics, because they can sometimes shed light on jocketty's decisions. two of the outfielders st louis went after last winter, encarnacion and larry bigbie, both scored well on every defensive scale. be interesting to see whether (and to what degree) defense informs this winter's roster rebuild.

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Comments

Baffled?

Wow, Albert should have at least been above Miles right? As hard as he has worked on his defense given the almost annual position change earlier in his career, Pujols does have a great chance to win his first and maybe only (D-Lee) gold glove.

Molina also benefitted from an injured favorite (Matheny) but Yadi proved this year that he is looking like Pudge Jr. That's really what I missed by not getting to watch the WS. I can't think of a time before where both catchers SCARED the opposing teams as much as this year. Not that the Cards or Tigers ran a lot to begin with, but Yadi did the job well the whole playoff run. It just doesn't seem to gain that much attention because it stick out like a home run or a diving Rolen stop.

I was even more surprised to hear about JuanEnc being the best defensive Cardinal. That makes me wonder if a permanent shift to center isn't on the table for STL. Sure, Edmonds could be serviceable for a year to two, but if the Cards can't move Enc, put him in center.

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Nov 3, 2006 6:27 AM EST reply actions

Enc

As has been gone over many times on this board...I feel Juan is a very strong OFer, I just wish he was an all out kinda guy like the truly great current CFer's...Edmond's, Hunter, etc...he has made a mark for himself as a guy that will pull up rather than lay out for a blooper.

by cardzfanbub on Nov 3, 2006 8:16 AM EST reply actions

I do NOT understand that feeling

The man can't seem to run to the corner.

Every time I expect to see him show off his supposed plus arm, the runner keeps going to 3rd and Juan throws to the cutoff man.

Granted, he seemed more comfortable in center, but I just cannot believe this stat showing him as real plus fielder.

by sdrone on Nov 3, 2006 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Juan

Turns more doubles into triples than any other outfielder I've ever seen.

I think maybe in CF where he wouldn't have to go to the corner, he'd do better.

I think we're in a position right now where we're going to have 2 players making very little money. It's either going to be both corner outfielders or 1 outfielder and 2B. And I can easily see Duncan staying around if he improves his defense in the offseason.

by redbird2006in on Nov 3, 2006 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

The Price is Right

Well, Duncan would certainly fit the price range for one of the corner spots. However, if we're stuck with JuanE, I sure would like to see the price for LF go up by platooning those two. Kind of a trade off. One big bat and bad glove for one bad bat and (cough) good glove (cough, cough).

Baily

by Baily on Nov 3, 2006 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

juan

i think our perception of juan is skewed by our first impression and our last impression. i believe that he was pressing in both instances. also, he has such a effortless style that is contrary to the scrappy style that we all love, that we tend to forget the great play he exhibited through most of the season. and, his plate discipline stands out more than his great offense he put up after the first month of the season. i have been down on him all year, but i'm trying to see through my perceptions, and look at his body of work with an unbiased approach.

"The good Lord was good to me. He gave me a strong body, a good right arm, and a weak mind." -Dizzy Dean

by vince eating tarp on Nov 3, 2006 8:39 AM EST reply actions

I agree.

by Zubin on Nov 3, 2006 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

I don't

I'm aghast he has such a high rating. Has Chris Dial actually watched much of JuanE in the field, or is this strictly a numbers analysis? Effort must not fit into his equation. I can't get the images out of my head where a runner took the extra base on JuanE while he "glided" to a ball in the corner and/or was slow to even pick the ball up in his hand. This speaks nothing of the numerous times I felt he pulled up and let a ball bounce in front of him instead of making the extra effort and actually run hard to try and snag it.

Of course, I qualify all this by stating I never cared for JuanE's game dating back to his rookie year when I lived in Michigan and he played for Detroit. So I've had a long standing issue with this guy's game and perhaps I can't get over my distaste for it the same way I've never been able to like broccoli, even though I keep reading about all the benefits it offers. Heaven help me if JuanE becomes the Cardinals' everyday CF!

Baily

by Baily on Nov 3, 2006 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

there's no subjective element to zone rating

It's a matter of the balls Enc fields and doesn't field, and by many, many measurements he's very good at getting to balls he shouldn't be able to get to.

Enc has always looked like a good outfielder to me, he positions himself well.

by DanUpBaby on Nov 3, 2006 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

i tried to think that juan had an effortless style

but after watching him over the second half of the season, he's just lazy. i've never seen anyone run to balls in the corner so slowly.

by jojo5492 on Nov 3, 2006 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

Enc

had a great stretch midseason, but he was absolutely horrid in the postseason.

I don't like him.

by SirVLCIV on Nov 3, 2006 8:41 AM EST reply actions

3B

I agree that El Hombre & Yadi are our best shots, but I still like Scotty for the 3B hardware - he may not have been up to what he has been in years past - but he's still got it...

So, who is Rolen's biggest competition in GG voting this year? Zimmerman? Aramis? Cabrera?

by ArachNerd on Nov 3, 2006 8:57 AM EST reply actions

rolen

he only lost last year cause he missed over half the season, and lowell of florida won, and since he is out of the league now, i will be surprised if rolen doesnt win, everyone knows the gold glove is the most likely award to be given over and over without being based on anything but having won it in previous years

with that in mind, dont be surprised if rolen and edmonds win, and yadi or pujols doesnt, it is a lot harder to win that first gold glove, than it is to keep winning year after year

remember, palmeiro won at first base one year when he played 6, (yes 6), games at first, and dh'ed the rest of the time

by bigcardsfan5 on Nov 3, 2006 9:13 AM EST up reply actions

I'm pretty sure Phil Garner

will vote for him. Though notice how no one has bitched about the All-Star game around here since we were able to clinch the WS at home? I had a feeling that would happen all along (sic).

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Nov 3, 2006 9:41 AM EST up reply actions

GG @ 3rd

I'm guessing David Wright will win. He's truly beloved by the media. I like his hustle.

by _pistol_ on Nov 3, 2006 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

maybe...

but his 19 errors on the season might hurt that.

by ArachNerd on Nov 3, 2006 10:06 AM EST up reply actions

Future Card?

Look who Chris Dial's top left fielder is... our old friend Dave Roberts.

Walt, buy now!!!

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Nov 3, 2006 9:18 AM EST reply actions

aren't the outfield gold glove awards

at least the real gold glove awards that the coaches and managers vote on, given to 3 outfielders without regard to position?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

If

Chris Duncan doesn't win a GG* Award, I will be seriously pissed.

*good guy

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 3, 2006 9:55 AM EST reply actions

He would definatly win the BC* award

*Big Chaw

by Schnake on Nov 3, 2006 10:01 AM EST up reply actions

Crap

Definitely

nothing ruins a joke like bad grammer!

by Schnake on Nov 3, 2006 10:02 AM EST up reply actions

You're grammAR is fine...

it's your spelling. ;-)

by Big Rev on Nov 3, 2006 1:18 PM EST up reply actions

zone rating

i alway thought that it was a good tool to rank players at a particular position. basically the nature of playing shortstop isn't too different from game to game, but playing shortstop is quite different than playing catcher. is there any explanation on how they translate these stats to runs saved.

by BigJawnMize on Nov 3, 2006 10:54 AM EST reply actions

The number is

runs saved. Dial also calculates a runs saved rate. The rate is why Larry was saying JEnc would have been better than Giles with more time in right.

After a couple years of watching Eck every day, how many people are willing to say he's much better defensively than he is given credit for? MGL set the standard with his defensive system. He was still consulting for the Cardinals when we signed Eckstein. I wish he was still with the team now, but I take consolation in other recent signs the Cardinals are promoting the progressive minded.

Eckstein for 3 per year or Renteria for 10 per year seems like such an obvious choice now, doesn't it?

by RedbirdRay on Nov 3, 2006 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Yes, I understand that...

...what I dont get is how you get to runs saved from a percentage of balls fielded in a players responsibility zones.

by BigJawnMize on Nov 3, 2006 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

naiverly,

you could translate that percentage into an OPB due to the fielder reaching/not reaching balls in his zone. If you're particularly savvy, you could, based upon the particular areas hit to, translate this into two base errors, three base errors, etc. Or you could just use a weighted average.

Then, using this OPB, you can go and use it as a probability (which it is), and use it to calculate the chance that, before three outs are used, that a runner will be advanced around the bases. Subtract off the average performance, and multiply by innings played in the defensive postion, and you have an idea of the number of runs saved defensively over the course of a season.

by Valatan on Nov 3, 2006 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

I pickin up what you are laying down...

...but, and this delves into a defensive stat discussion, it gets back to my initial problem with zone rating that it is difficult to take the percentages of feilded ball in a zone and convert them to a universal stat for all players (runs saved). I think in this case it is the use of OBP instead of some calculation of total bases. Where an error by an SS typically would allow an out to become a baserunner on first, an error by an outfeilder could allow an out to became a runner on second or third. All I am saying is that I am suspicious of zone to compare players at differnt postions based on runs saved, but I think it does a good job of comparing a RF to a RF.

by BigJawnMize on Nov 3, 2006 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

Jocketty to talk with Mulder, maybe Gonzo

PD reports that Walt will speak with Mark's agent. Mark's agent also represents Gonzo.

If we do indeed sign Gonzo, move Duncan from LF to RF and trade Juan for cash or prospects.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
2006 WS for JB and DK57

by cardsfan84 on Nov 3, 2006 10:57 AM EST reply actions

I have virtually no interest in Gonzo

he's lost most of his power and is left with a very severe split against lefties. With Duncan already in the fold, I don't think Gonzo adds to the team. He seems the classic decline-phase player who winds up getting paid too much based on reputation.

With the problems this team had hitting lefties last year that's my biggest concern with a Gonzo signing.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 3, 2006 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

I can see

Jimmy and Yadi getting a GG with an outside shot to Rolen and possibly Pujols. Raffy's win at DH proves that the voters could give one to Wright instead of Scotty (who cares about errors or even playing the position to win). Albert may need one more year to break through.

420 South 8th Street - A St Louis Cardinals Blog

by RichK on Nov 3, 2006 10:59 AM EST reply actions

Fielding Stats

I don't pretend to know much about fielding statistics. From what I can tell they are fairly unreliable. I agree with what lboros said, in that no single statistic tells the complete story.

But if it means anything to anyone...

Baseball Prospectus' RATE statistic, which they define as:

A way to look at the fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc.

Rates Pujols as a 112 for this year, or 12 runs above average. The other name I've heard tossed out a lot for another firstbase gold glove is Todd Helton. Acording to this same metric, Helton rates a 102 for 2006. Advantage Pujols?

Plus, it seems if bats help to win gold gloves. I don't have time to look up the numbers, but Pujols seems to be doing OK in that regard.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 11:02 AM EST reply actions

Preston Wilson

Anyone notice P-Dub is at the bottom of the LF list? Considering he could be a defensive replacement for young dunc, that is quite scary.

By the way, if you read the whole article, he rates Chavez as the best OF in all the NL. You don't suppose we could pry him away from the Mets, do you?

by Zubin on Nov 3, 2006 11:02 AM EST reply actions

No need to pry. He's a F/A

n/t

by sdrone on Nov 3, 2006 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

No

He is not a FA, even though he only signed a 1 year contract, he doesnt have enough service time to be a Free Agent. He is elig for arbitration.

by FanInNY on Nov 3, 2006 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

Endy Chavez

I keep reading that on VEB, but when I check any news site, he isn't listed. e.g. look at espn:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/freeagents?oldTeamId=21

by Zubin on Nov 3, 2006 1:18 PM EST up reply actions

Derick Goold

Has an interesting rundown of how the Cards top 30 prospects (going into 2006) did this year over at his blog

It's not too encouraging, but some reasons for optimism. It seems to me that the top 30 list for next year will be much more exciting.

by OCCardsFan on Nov 3, 2006 11:06 AM EST reply actions

Adam Ottavino?

Is it just simply too early to put Adam Ottavino, Jon Jay, or even Chris Perez on the list.

Jay looked great this year, last time that I checked.

Whatever happened to the veils of hype and mystery that surrounded Amauray Marti (sp)?

Adam Wainwright 6th? Wuh?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

whoops...

going into 2006... you explained it, i missed it. my bad.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

This list was pre-2006

It was a look back at what they had done this past year. Which is why those drafted in June were not on the list, including Marti.

by Just Rope Ball on Nov 3, 2006 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry

didn't refresh before I typed it.

by Just Rope Ball on Nov 3, 2006 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

Marti is putting up a +900 OPS in the AFL

he might have an outside shot at a bench job in 2007

by Valatan on Nov 3, 2006 11:29 AM EST up reply actions

Most teams prospect...

...rankings read something like that. A mix of injury and underperformance w/ a few bright spots. The list are hard to do because players will come out of nowhere; leap to the majors; and do well. This really is the only metric that matters, all the rest is just projection

by BigJawnMize on Nov 3, 2006 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

where was

josh kinney?

by Schnake on Nov 3, 2006 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Before ppl are so quick to discount Dial...

Remember he is the one who rates Rolen as the best defensive thirdbagger in the game for the last 20 years, also rates Ozzie as best of all time and Oquendo as best second baseman.

Hard to believe considering Dial is definitely not a Cardinal fan.

by RedbirdRay on Nov 3, 2006 11:09 AM EST reply actions

Not hard to believe at all--

he doesn't let his likes and dislikes affect his observations, data and subsequent analysis and conclusions.

More power to him, and to other like-minded individuals.

by salvomania on Nov 3, 2006 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

Rolen

is the best defensive 3B, not named Brooks Robinson, I've ever seen play; and that's not my Cardinals bias coming through. I'd put Ozzie and Luis Aparicio on an even plane, but Oquendo as the best 2B ever? I don't think so.

by cardsrul on Nov 3, 2006 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

Being the best defensive SS ever...

is the main reason the Wizzard graces the Hall.

by Big Rev on Nov 3, 2006 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

speaking of spelling...

Wizzard = Wizard

by Big Rev on Nov 3, 2006 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

i love how paranoid everyone is about spelling now

by effin fisk on Nov 3, 2006 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting Indeed

I think most people felt prior to Spring Training Reyes, Wainwright and Duncan would be a factor in St. Louis during 2006, but no clue as to the extent.

Will be curious to see how many guys on this list (a.) get a legit shot during spring training &
(b.) end up on the club at some point during the season. Especially some of the OFers. If for some odd reason none of the FAs return (Edmonds, Wilson, Taguchi, Spiezio), that leaves just JuanE from the right side of the plate and Duncan, J-Rod, Bigbie and Schumaker from the left side.

What's the projection time to the big leagues of guys like Rasmus, Stavinoha, Gorecki and (if ever) Ankiel?

Baily

by Baily on Nov 3, 2006 11:41 AM EST reply actions

Cy Young votes out?

Carpenter is freaking 3RD???

by sdrone on Nov 3, 2006 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Odd, saw it on a website

but mlb.com has it coming out 11/14.

by sdrone on Nov 3, 2006 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Not too surprising---

one of those guys had to finish 3rd, and it's not like the other two didn't have better stats in some categories, just like Carp also did better (as well as worse) in some...

There wasn't a whole lot of difference between them, and maybe Carp, as someone who won it with a much better season just last year, wasn't seen as the best guy to win a "repeat."

If he hadn't completely spit the bit in his last two starts, he'd have won the award (he'd have led the league in both wins and ERA). But he pitched horribly, allowing the other guys to make it a horse race.

And for me, it's enough having 2006 feature the Cardinals as "Worst World Series Winner Ever" without having Carp be "Worst (or at least, lowest-winning) Cy Young Winner Ever."

by salvomania on Nov 3, 2006 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

And, are the results actually in?

by salvomania on Nov 3, 2006 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Nope.

not even close.

NL Cy Young is announced November 14th

by Fitz on Nov 3, 2006 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

sorry

left the link off:

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/awards/y2006/index.jsp

by Fitz on Nov 3, 2006 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

No way

The fact that Encarnacion is second on the list in right field just proves that this system is bull. Cardinals that will be leaving with hardware: El Hombre, Molina, Edmonds and possibly Rolen.

I'm pretty sure they just give out 3 OF gold gloves anyway so why did he even break down all three positions.
My Gold Gloves:
1B-Pujols
2B-Jose Valentin
3B-Rolen or Zimmerman
SS-Believe it or not Visquel
OF-A. Jones
OF-Beltran
OF-Edmonds
C-Molina
P-Maddux(Who else??)

"And that's a winner. A World Series winner for the Cardinals."

by Bird Watcher on Nov 3, 2006 12:49 PM EST reply actions

edmonds

edmonds didn't play enough to deserve gold glove consideration

by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Nov 3, 2006 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Valentin won't win at 2nd....

Orlando Hudson will

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Nov 3, 2006 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

Adam

Adam Everrett deserves the GG at SS. Edmonds was out to long to get the GG.

by DimitroffVodka on Nov 3, 2006 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

MVP...

Ryan Howard? I know the kid was good, but you have to factor in team success too and when you don't even make the playoffs, you don't deserve to win the MVP. 2 man race between Pujols and Beltran in my opinion.

by lopey986 on Nov 3, 2006 12:50 PM EST reply actions

one stat to me hands down gives it to Hombre

Game winning Rbis...to me thats mvp...you can debat taking them off or playoffs or Hrs or rbis..but game winning rbis to me puts an !

Plus the fact that AP numbers were not that far off from Howard...take into consideration he missed 17 games, and to even be close to him to me is a feat.

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Nov 3, 2006 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

Word

I agree with you 100%. Another thing that stands out to me is Batting average with RISP. Pujols was ~.330 and Howard was around ~.200 (sorry, don't have the exact numbers at my fingertips). And with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, Pujols was a monster hitting ~.400 and Howard ~.130 (again, not sure of exact numbers, but I think you get the point...Pujols was light years better than Howard in this regard).

Invisible Gophers---2006 Tempe, AZ Slow Pitch Softball Champs!!!

by BigdJC on Nov 3, 2006 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

"take into consideration....

"...he missed 17 games"

A lot of voters will do just that, and by that measure will vote for Howard because of his superior durability in the thick of a race...

by salvomania on Nov 3, 2006 12:57 PM EST reply actions

in the thick of a race?

it was june. the cardinals were 13 games over .500. there was no race.

by lopey986 on Nov 3, 2006 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Does it really matter

if any Cardinals win any of these non-subjective awards? They got the big prize last week.

by cardsrul on Nov 3, 2006 1:51 PM EST reply actions

Did you guys see

Did you guys see that Grudz won the GG at 2b? Man I really wish we signed him. That was by far our worst offseason mistake last season.

by DimitroffVodka on Nov 3, 2006 1:57 PM EST reply actions

Actually...

I wished we'd just kept Hector freakin' Luna. He was just as good as Belliard, younger, cheaper, a longer option considering Belliard is probably just going to be back in Cleveland in about a month anyway and we are looking at Adam Kennedy.

by lopey986 on Nov 3, 2006 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

BY FAR?!!?!

Not signing a 36-year-old middle infielder was the worst mistake of our offseason? The same offseason that gave $13MM to Braden Looper? The same offseason that replaced Reggie Sanders/Larry Walker with Juan Encarnacion? The same offseason that produced Junior Spivey and Sidney Ponson?

Don't get me wrong, I liked Grudz, and I wish he would have stayed around, but I wouldn't call it the biggest mistake of what was a pretty lousy offseason. It certainly wasn't the biggest mistake by far.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

oh my god...

i almost forgot about sidney ponson. holy hell that was bad.

by lopey986 on Nov 3, 2006 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

It wasn't that bad...

for a $1m investment.

If you want the Carps of the world, you have to endure some Ponsons.

by guayzimi on Nov 3, 2006 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

Ponson

What was so bad about signing Ponson? We needed a 5th starter, took a chance on a comeback guy with a low-risk contract. Just because it didn't work doesn't make it a huge mistake.

by farley503 on Nov 3, 2006 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

Marquis was worse than Ponson

in my eyes.

by effin fisk on Nov 3, 2006 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

JuanE tops the list

...of Walt's worst off season mistakes in my eyes. No surprise there.

Baily

by Baily on Nov 3, 2006 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Who would you have taken?

What availible corner outfielder would you have signed last offseason. Of the FA from the 2005 offseason, Juan had the best year (aside from giles) for a relatively modest salary.

I hear a lot of 'Enc sucks', 'enc sucks', 'enc sucks' from you, but what would you have done?

by Valatan on Nov 4, 2006 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

Eh

We did win the World Series.

I actually am kinda' content with every move made in the last 12 months now.

We did win the World Series, right? Cause I'm thinking about smoking some drugs and all of October may very well have been some bizzare, elaborate "flash-forward."

We're World Champs, right?

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 3, 2006 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Good for Grudz...

his first GG at age 36.

I was also surprised to see the guy is only a year and half away from 2,000 hits as well.

by guayzimi on Nov 3, 2006 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

But Luna couldn't play

both second and right field simultaneously.

Belliard is two players in one!

by Red in Chicago on Nov 3, 2006 2:15 PM EST reply actions

swish!

you nailed it. niice.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

so nice

it needed an extra I

by Schnake on Nov 3, 2006 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

in all fairness

It probably deserve 3 i's

I'm just trying to play it cool and keep it classy.

cuz that's my style.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

also

deserve deserved an extra d, but whatever...

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

OF positions

snip...I'm pretty sure they just give out 3 OF gold gloves anyway so why did he even break down all three positions.

He does say it is in his opinion, and in his opinions, he thinks they should be broken down by position (and I agree with him). If you know Dial, his opinion is about all that matters to him.

Sorry, I don't really ever post here, not used to the formatting.

by SheriffBlalock on Nov 3, 2006 2:38 PM EST reply actions

Offseason Moves

I still don't get why people are so down on the past offseason. The results obviously worked out. In fact, I don't see Jocketty getting a lot of credit for letting Sanders, Nunez, Mabry, Tavarez and Morris walk.

Spivey and Ponson were certainly failures, but they were intended as high-reward, low-risk. They didn't pan out; big deal.

And I'm sorry, but I still don't see why people act like Looper and Encarnacion are 'bad' offseason moves, as if they've crippled the Cardinals or something. We might of overpaid for both, but that was the way the market worked last year. We needed another outfielder, and we needed a setup-level guy for the bullpen. We bought what we needed.

Looper went 9-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He did a good job. We overpaid, but you have to overpay for relievers. And he certainly had a better season than Tavarez, Kline, or Ray King did.

I think Encarnaction was a pretty decent signing. We needed an OF, and the OF guys were Juan, Sanders, Giles, Preston Wilson, Jacque Jones, Rondell White, and Jeromy Burnitz. Out of those names, everyone flopped (and I mean FLOPPED) except for Giles, Jones, and Encarnacion

Giles had a mediocre season for something like $10 million, Jones had a pretty good season for $4 million, and Encarnacion had a pretty good season for $3.5 million.

I mean, Encarnacion is not an exceptional OF, but he wasn't meant to be. He played 153 games, 557 ABs, hit .278, didn't get enough walks, and did a very good job in the field. I would argue that he did better in Saint Louis than Reggie Sanders or Larry Walker ever did.

I think Jocketty should be commended for doing a pretty good job in the offseason. There were some misses, but he filled the spots he needed to fill in a week year for free agents, and he certainly didn't make a big screw up (AJ Burnett, anybody?)

by Fitz on Nov 3, 2006 2:53 PM EST reply actions

I stand by it...

Looper and Juan were not great offseason moves.

The results did work out, and I couldn't be happier, but it would be foolish to pretend like in addition to a world championship we didn't have an 83 win season. I'm not trying to diminish this awesome accomplishment, rather I just wish for the team to get better so that they can do it again.

Looper: Baseball prospectus values him at a total, A TOTAL of $3MM over the three-year span that the Cardinals signed him. I know that this club seems to be more comfortable with a veteran pitching staff, but $13MM is simply overpaying for this guy.

I also respectfully disagree that you have to overpay for relievers. I think a perfect example of this was this past postseason. Randy Flores, Tyler Johnson, Josh Kinney, Brad Thompson, Josh Hancock, and Adam Wainwright made IN TOTAL less money than Braden Looper. We also had Benes and Falkenborg that performed very well in spring training ready to go in AAA.

As for Juan... he had an OK line, my bias is more personal against him. Reggie Sanders was a fan-favorite class act. Juan, in my opinion, is a lollygagger in the field. As another poster put it "he pulls up for flyballs instead of dives," or something along those lines. His head isn't in the game. Citing: the time he took it upon himself to sacrafice bunt with pujols waiting on deck. they walked pujols.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

relievers

You might not have to overpay if you know what you've got. But we just had a bunch of guys that MIGHT have been able to do the job well.

What had Randy Flores, Tyler Johnson, Josh Kinney, Brad Thompson, Josh Hancock, and Adam Wainwright really accomplished before this season? Did we really want to go into the season with a virtually all-rook bullpen?

Thompson and Flores were pretty well proven, but Johnson, Wainwright, and Kinney were question marks at best.

Looper isn't a shutdown reliever, but he's reasonably consistent and he has veteran make-up. 3.57 ERA with closing experience. Not a great move by any means, but it's worked out fine.

by Fitz on Nov 3, 2006 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

your arguments contradict

You're arguing that...

1). This season was a success because of the end result

2). That Looper/Enc were justified signings because of their more predictable track record.

but I could just as easily use the same arguments to say...

1). Hancock, Thompson, Flores, Johnson, Wainwright, and Kinney were the right decision because it worked out in the end

2). That the season wasn't a success because reliable statistical prediction methods indicated that we weren't likely to succeed in the postseason. That is to say, we knew we werent' putting the best players on the field and we just got lucky and won.

I think you either have to chose to make one argument or the other either..

1). Predictive on-paper value is more important

2). The end result is most important, no matter how you get there (luck or whatever).

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 3, 2006 4:06 PM EST up reply actions

correction

I'm sorry if my comment at the beginning made it sound like I felt that the offseason was a success because of the end result. I meant it more as a joke.

But the jist of it is this: I think both guys did pretty well, and I think both signings were necessary during the last offseason.

by Fitz on Nov 3, 2006 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

I don't necessarily see how it contradicts

From what I read he is saying that the season was successful becuase of the end result and knowing what you were going to get with the offseason signings was part of that success.

I agree that Juan wasn't a bad signing for what was out there. He is an above average defensive outfielder who has lapses at times and you know exactly what you are going to get year in and year out at the plate. Do I want someone better? sure I do, but with what was out there I had no problem with the signing and still don't.

Looper being only worth 3 mil total over 3 years is completely wrong IMO. Just becuase BP or whoever says it, doesn't mean they're right. Someone who has saved 100 games in their career is going to make more then 1 mil/year based on experience alone. Did Walt overpay for him? Absolutely he did, but that is where the market was.

Like fitz was saying, who knew that someone in the independent league a short time ago was going to get called up and make such a difference? You can't rely on those things.

by Pujols4Pres on Nov 3, 2006 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

Part of the problem

is the expectations. Judging from his career stats, 2006 was a fine season for Juan Encarnacion. Expecting much more than what he produced, given those stats and his age, was pretty unrealistic.

And yet, he was constantly dogged by the perception/expectation that he was going to be a 25-30HR, 100+RBI guy. I don't know where that came from, whether the team talked him up too much or what. But he is what he is. His horrific start didn't help (and, given that start, it's pretty amazing that he put up the numbers he did).

Looper is only a "disaster" from the perspective that being locked in for three years to a setup guy is pretty unappealing, considering righty relievers who throw in the low 90s with a slider pretty much grow on trees. But Looper had a track record, and he got what the market would bear last offseason. His stats, like Encarnacion, were solid but unspectacular. Again, it's a question of expectations--if you were expecting Looper to be a lights-out, high-K-rate setup guy, you were disappointed. You were also, in my opinion, being unrealistic about what he is.

The team could not have predicted Rincon's injury. Spivey and Ponson, as you correctly point out, were relatively inexpensive gambles. They got Spiezio to replace Mabry, a fine move. Miles filled the role of Nunez, capably and cheaply.

by blove121 on Nov 3, 2006 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

I don't get that...

it's better to be good and occasionally injured than mediocre like Enc. Sanders and Walker were way better when healthy, and when they weren't, we had Mabry who could provide a below average bat like Enc.

As for last offseason, it's kind of lazy to say, it must have been good since we won. We won because of Pujols, Rolen, and Carpenter, with Suppan, Wainwright, and Weaver coming up big in October.

For the second time in his career Enc was benched in October because he couldn't handle top notch pitching. When Jocketty signed Enc he made it clear that the contract was justified in part due to Enc's capacity to improve. He didn't improve in 2006. So Jocketty's own words should make it clear the signing hasn't worked out, and likely won't. We would have been better off handing out a few minor league contracts and having a competition in spring training

by guayzimi on Nov 3, 2006 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

Juan put up some pretty good 2006

regular season numbers, some of the best of his career, I believe. However, he seemed to wear down before Rolen even did and unlike Scott, never got back on track.

His lazy play can be tolerated as long as he is providing bright spots at times on offense and defense. What rubs me the wrong way is the whole parade situation.

If there isn't a better excuse than 'he just didn't show up', then I'll never be able to give him the benefit of the doubt on watching line drives bounce 2 feet in front of him.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 3, 2006 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

LAZY PLAY

"His lazy play can be tolerated as long as he is providing bright spots at times on offense and defense"

Man, if I didn't know you were a Cards fan I wouldn't believe it after that statement. I think it's long been said that Card's fans will tolerate whatever performance they get as long as the effort is there...obviously there is a line that can be crossed.

I'd rather see sloppy play than lazy play...there's never an excuse for that.

by cardzfanbub on Nov 3, 2006 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

Encarnaction's value

I just think that Encarnacion is certainly worth what we're paying him and that he's a good addition to the team. I think a lot of people have been doggin him ever since the signing, and his crap start certainly didn't help.

But I think his value is probably overlooked. The Harball Times has him at 16 win-shares, 4th on the entire team.

I'm not trying to claim the man is an exceptional outfielder, I certainly don't hope that's how it comes off. But I think he's a good addition to the team. We needed an outfielder, we chose Juan, and he's done a pretty good job.

by Fitz on Nov 3, 2006 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

That's cute

but I'm sure you were more than willing to throw Pujols under the bus when he wasn't running out groundballs the second half of the year?

I guess you can pawn that off on his bad 'hammy' but then you'd be able to defend Juan's lack of enthusiam to his bad hip.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 3, 2006 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

Let's not

pretend like Juancion and Pujols are in the same group...let alone same statosphere as far as player's go. This is the first I've heard of Juan's "Bad Hip".

How much does he risk his hip when diving forward on a blooper.

I'm not one of those guys who is wishing off Juan, I don't necessarily like him, but I think he has value, and is an above average player.

One other thing. I don't understand how a player can know that his main fault is plate discipline/lack thereof, but do nothing to correct it...(see juan/pdub) I guess it's a mentality issue, but it frustrates me.

by cardzfanbub on Nov 3, 2006 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

The whole Grudz

The whole Grudz deal just made no sense to me. He was not even asking for a lot of money. He was a good ball player that was healthy for us. I thought it was stupid to break up the DP combo. It was the only thing in the off season that severely pissed me off.

Juan E - I think he is worth what he get paid. The market was very thin and overpriced.

Looper - Definitely thought we over paid for him. I always liked how they managed the bullpen before pulling from the trash heap.

by DimitroffVodka on Nov 3, 2006 3:18 PM EST reply actions

I was listening to Chicago sports-talk radio...

The host was dissatisfied in the AL GG awards, and especially in Joe Crede's snub to award Eric Chavez. Regardless of his White Sox bias, he proposed an interesting solution: reward the 9 best defensive players in each league regardless of position. This would allow for, say, 2 excellent 3B-men or 4 exceptional OF'ers to be awarded and 0 unsuitable pitchers or 1B-men. This would also eliminate awarding the GG to more undeserving players just to award a position. What do you think?

by Big Rev on Nov 3, 2006 3:19 PM EST reply actions

I see his point

Crede rocks. I like him.

by sdrone on Nov 3, 2006 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

GG winners

I can't see that being a good idea. If you're awarding the best 9 defensive players, I would expect that every year there'd be multiple SS, CF, and C as winners. I don't think it is too much to ask to choose one per position. Although it's not an easy task, and I think the voting should be like the ROY instead of just one vote per position.

by SheriffBlalock on Nov 3, 2006 3:41 PM EST reply actions

The cards win it all

beating the Hail to the cheif Mets who were supposed to be it and all, and then beat the cinderella story Tigers and people are mad at offseason moves...

Getting rid of luna was a good move...there were several runs Belly stopped that Luna wouldnt have...Plus Luna cant turn a dp to save his life.

Yay grudz got his GG, but he was a bird one yr. Yes I liked him, but get over it he's gone...it's not like the Jimmy deal where there are centiments(SP?) attached.

you guys will soon have other things to complain about...this offseason.

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Nov 3, 2006 4:13 PM EST reply actions

The awards are up at MLB.com

Pujols & Rolen, no Molina.

by Red in Chicago on Nov 3, 2006 5:22 PM EST reply actions

JuanE the O-fer

A great deal of what JuanE will mean to the 2007 cardinals relies on the Edmonds decision. Personally, the idea of JuanE in center for me would be a best of a worst-case scenario for the Cardinals; i.e. no Edmonds, no free agent, etc. The zone rating for JuanE is very good. Second to only Alex Rios among qualified RFers at .912 and he's been relatively consistent when healthy; 2005 (.884), 2004 (.866), and 2003(.918). However, his assists have been mediocre most of his career and declining; assists 2003-7, 2004-7, 2005-4, and 2006-4. And his range factor may also be in decline; range factor 2003- 2.23 (6th), 2004-2.23 (6th), 2005-1.78 (18th), and 2006- 2.04 (13th). Defensive metrics are problematic but these seem to confirm most of the observations. Juan is a nice speedy rightfielder who can make a extra out with his speed, but fails to produce much else with his arm or brain out there.
Move him to center??? He has a much smaller but not insignificant sample of CF play and results...1.79, .793, and 0 in 32 games. All among the worst in baseball.

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Nov 4, 2006 6:29 PM EST reply actions

Last sentence sums it up for JuanE

"Among the worst in baseball." Despite whatever numbers he's able to put on the back of his baseball card, his contribution to winning is minimal in my estimation. I can't recall a single thing he did at the plate or in the field contributing to a significant win. I'm not sure Schumaker couldn't have contributed as much if not more than JuanE did last season and I sure don't want Schumaker as the Cards' everyday right fielder. But I'd take him over JuanE.

Baily

by Baily on Nov 5, 2006 10:25 PM EST up reply actions