Fresh baked Zito
by Valatan on Nov 29, 2006 3:14 PM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintSo, as the roster matrix below establishes, the Cardinals are sitting relatively pretty if Jocketty is honest about the $100M+ payroll that the team is going to be enjoying. The bench is relatively full, we have a servicable starting eight, and enough parts in the 'pen that something could be set up.
So Walt basically has $20M-$25M to spend on two starters, and perhaps a big bat for the lineup. The obvious thing to spend it on is one of the two frontline starters, and then one of the middling arms that will probably go for $9 per or so.
So, which one of the frontline starters do we go with? Zito or Schmidt?
Schmidt has had a bit of an inconsistent performace recently, though with a much better peak--that very high quality 2003 season indicating the best of what he can do, though the low point involved him posting a 4.40 ERA in an injury-shortened 2005.
Zito, on the other hand, has been more consistent recently--hovering around an ERA in the high threes, but dropping off significantly from his much more dominant younger years. He hasn't been Cy Young caliber since he won in 2002, but he has been a very solid starter.
So, at first face, it looks like we have a choice between two players, one with a higher recent peak, and the other with a more consistent recent past (though they are closer once you factor in the fact that Zito plays in the AL west). So, which one makes more sense to go with?
Zito will probably command something like 5/$70M, while Schmidt will be somewhere in the range of 4/$60. I took a look at the ERA+ posted by each pitcher's top four comparables at baseball reference. I averaged this for the players age 29-34 seasons for Zito, and for their age 34-38 seasons for Schmidt (I added Bruce Hurst, Schmidt's number five to this study, as Bartolo Colon, his number three comparable, just finished his age 33 season).
The first thing that I noticed was that only two of Schmidt's comparables were still in baseball at the age of thirty eight. They also were more injury prone, suffering four seasons that were clearly shortened by injury or ineffectiveness. While there was some of this with Zito's comparables, even with the larger time frame being looked at, the shortened seasons, by the large, resulted in 100 inning seasons, not 27 inning seasons.
But, interestingly, when their actual ERA+'s were computed, Zito's comparables ended up with a 102 ERA+, while Schmidt's put up a 96. That is somewhat sobering--if we sign these guys, over the course of the contract, we shouldn't expect much difference from league average. Regardless, this analysis indicates that Zito, mostly due to age, is likely the better investment than Schmidt, even with the greater risk of committing more guaranteed money to get Zito.
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Considering ...
It sounds strange...
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
I tend to agree
Then again, perhaps the pitching market doesn't bear out such a plan. Are there inexpensive league-average pitchers available?
Also, perhaps Zito and Schmidt's recent woes have less to do with decline than they do with bad luck or (correctable) bad mechanics, approach, etc. If that's the case, then maybe each of them are worth the price. I'm not a pitching coach, so I don't know.
That's true
If we got one of them, it would be to beef up the top of the rotation for another playoff run this year.
I'm with you on taking a pass
zito
Not to be a ham...
it might be worth checking out, if anyone's interested feel free. here it is.
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 3:27 PM EST reply actions
Where would Gil Meche
I think if you are going to pony up big money for a guy, he should be a guy with a superior strikeout rate - and I prefer righthanders for the bigger money. Lefthanders seem to fade later in their careers with regularity these days with a few exceptions. Guys that have faded though, Mulder, Willis - though he's still younger than Anthony Reyes, Randy Wolf, etc. A guy like Randy Johnson had a lot of good years but I feel like he is an exception rather than the rule. Basically, pitchers skills seem to diminish unless they are very special. Above average guys become average over time. Special guys have a hard time staying healthy.
I bet we see some injury problems for guys like Roy Oswalt as time goes by on his big contract. the league seems so dilluted of pitching talent. Hopefully we can develop a few guys on our own, because revenue sharing is changing the free agent market forever. Fairness sucks if you're one of the teams that doesn't play fair.
by Toddius396 on Nov 29, 2006 3:34 PM EST reply actions
Gil Meche?
He's young(ish). He has an OK stikeout rate (the Cardinals don't seem to care much about strikeout rate). That's about it.
He doesn't have great control, he isn't very good at keeping the ball in the park, he doesn't get a particularly high number of groundballs, and he hasn't shown he can eat up the innings. He's drawn enough interest that he won't be cheap. Everyone keeps talking about his upside, but the proof is in the pudding.
Why would the Cardinals sign this guy? Just because he's 28?
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
have you ever seen
He's the kind of guy who can go out and throw a 10 strikeout game. That's why everyone likes him. Cite his strikeout rate all you want, people like him because of what he has the potential to do, not for what he's done. Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance - nothing does, that's why it's always a gamble to sign or trade anyone. Give me this guy.
by Toddius396 on Nov 29, 2006 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Zito or Schmidt....No thanks
With all the hype about a Angels/White Sox deal, why don't we get into the mix. I'd love a three way deal; ship Juan please! After his childish behavior in not showing up to the World Series Parade and other post-season festivities, I am no longer willing to forgive his performance and be positive about 2007.
Let's get Buehrles out of the deal. He would be an automatic fan favorite and still give us flexibility for the future.
Sign 1 or 2 of these RH Outfielders to replace Encarnacion; jay payton, shannon stewart, craig wilson, preston wilson.
Give me; Carpenter, Buehrle, Lilly, Reyes, Wells
Besides...Most likly; Zito is going to the Mets and Schmidt is going to Seattle
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 29, 2006 3:37 PM EST reply actions
Why does everyone
by Toddius396 on Nov 29, 2006 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
While he may not have been very expensive...
also...why does everyone...
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
lilly
I still don't get it....
He's not a bad pitcher by any means, but I really don't see the attraction. He's got a nice curve. So? At some point the proof is in the puddin', and Lilly hasn't really shown much statistically to make me care.
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Remember...
and
I've heard that Lilly's asking 3 years 27 million.
If we're offering Wolf 3yrs/24 million, I'd gladdly take the extra million a year for Lilly.
And, if we have hopes of returning to the World Series, we will probably have to get through New York. Wouldn't it be nice to have a Lefty that isn't afraid to pitch against the big boys?!
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 29, 2006 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
well
also
Buerhle
He likes the Cardinals and all...
Just because he's a lefty, I guess. It's about all he has going for him. No plus pitches. Declining peripherals, not worth the money.
Well, before this year, he was DAMN good
HOWEVER. He had problems at the end of this year. It could easily be fatigue. Or, it might be worse. At this point, I'm curious to see how he does in April.
injury bug
Unreasonable expectations
Granted, I think as Mazzone has aged, Duncan has become the premier pitching coach. But, how far can we stretch one man? Last year Dunc had the benefit of having several pitchers with history. Carp and Suppan already had affective game plans in place going into the season. Marquis sucked, but Dunc knew him already and knew what he had to work with.
Going into this year he has one easy pitcher: Carp. Already he has a rookie (Reyes) or two or three (Wainer and Narvie) a project whom has never reached his potential in Wells and a questionmark.
We're not even mentioning our young pen.
I don't think we can extend Duncan any further. A Schmidt or Zito wouldn't require much tweaking. They are veteran pros and know their own game. He already has some work into Weaver or Mulder so I don't they would be too much extra either. But, ANOTHER project pitcher? I don't think so.
excellent perspective
it is scary to think what we'll have to pay carp in the face of the yanks, mets, and bosox next year if schmidt signs for almost 15 a year
by jimmybaseball42 on Nov 29, 2006 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Is Soup even a possibility?
by redbird2006in on Nov 29, 2006 3:43 PM EST reply actions
me too.
none of them really thrill me. i'd rather have soup than any of them.
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
I had given up on Suppan
why
by Birds on the Matt on Nov 29, 2006 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
Not that good?
He wins game 7 of the 2004 NLCS against Roger Clemens.
He pitches an unbelievable game 7 against the Mets at Shea Stadium and oh, yeah, he's the NLCS MVP.
Suppan is a big game pitcher.
If Adam "Freaking" Eaton is worth $8-9 mil/yr, then what's Suppan worth?
bud smith threw a no hitter
Supp is a league average pitcher good for a 4.00-4.50 ERA and around 180-200 IP. That has value in the current pitching market but I don't think that it should be valued at 8-9 million for 4 years.
Not for 4 yrs but maybe 3...
Look, I know that Soup is not a great pitcher but I can't stand it when people say he's not good. He's come through for us in the biggest games you can pitch in. That has to count for something.
Anyway, it's a moot point. In this market, someone will probably give him at least 3 yrs and $30 mil, possibly 4 yrs and 40. At that price, it's too much.
weaver
I disagree
by Birds on the Matt on Nov 29, 2006 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
how bout
Wow
by Toddius396 on Nov 29, 2006 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Forget about it
Given the current market, I think Mulder is actually a better option than any for the Cardinals. Why not sign him to an incentive-based contract, start the season with Wainwright in the rotation while Mulder's out, and see what happens?
by Bradsher on Nov 29, 2006 4:29 PM EST reply actions
I agree...
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Every team
by Toddius396 on Nov 29, 2006 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
Mulder
- He won't be 100%
- Who knows if that surgery fixed anything. Remember when he didn't need it? Then all of a sudden he did?
I disagree...
I dunno. I keep going back to the idea that if Mark Mulder had been on any other team last season, we'd be falling all over ourselves to get him.
A once great pitcher, coming into his early 30's but off of a shoulder/arm surgery that can be had for cheaper than thought before.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 29, 2006 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
But the MLB
Yeah, but as I posted before...
3 year/$25 million would be structured like so:
$6 million - 2007
Option can be picked up by club for 2008 or 2009
If Mulder reaches X amount of innings or X amount of starts in 2006, 2007 option becomes automatic.
$9 million - 2008
If Mulder reaches X amount of innings or X amount of starts in 2007, 2008 becomes automatic.
$10 million - 2009
I think the Yankees had a contract structured like this (albeit with more money) for Posada the past few seasons.
It's a risky move, for sure, but I also see it as low risk/high reward situation. If Mulder doesn't meet the in-contract goals, then the contract is shortened significantly. If he does reach them, then the Cardinals found a bargain in an insane market.
Just something that was tumbling around in my head.
If he gets $10m a year or more than 3 years, I'll be stunned and help him pack his bags.
I think Mulder can be had and for a reasonable amount of money. It's just a matter of finding a deal like that in which he'll take/we can work out.
No way should he be guaranteed anything beyond 1 year. However, if he reaches certain plateaus, then yeah...lock in with him for the final 2. Otherwise, if it doesn't work out this year, we lose $6-8m for this season and have the payroll space to make a run at Buerhle next off-season.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 29, 2006 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Dynamite drop in, Monty.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 30, 2006 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
Schmidt vs. Zito
Take those bb-ref comparables with a grain of salt---they don't account for "trajectory." (Only two pitchers on the list were still good, high-K starting pitchers at age 33).
For instance, Zito's 4 best years of his career were his first four. None of his last three have been as good as any of his first four years.
Schmidt is the opposite--his three best seasons have occurred over the past four seasons. (Weighted average--most recent=heaviest---last 4 years Schmidt has an ERA+ of 124, while Zito is 115.)
Schmidt doesn't have a ton of mileage on his arm---only two seasons of 200+ ip through his age 29 season, but then three times over 200 ip in the four seasons since, so he's durable. His approach and attitude seem bulldog-like, and I can see him as a guy who continues to be nails for several years.
Zito has also been durable, but through age 28 he's thrown almost 500 more innings than Schmidt at the same age. Zito's peripherals are all tending down, and I'll take the guy with 8k/per 9 any day over Zito's decreasing (now 6 per 9) K rate.
Schmidt has missed (minor) time due to injury
Not to mention that Duncan does well with pitchers with a big powerful curve--in fact, I would argue, better than he does with the oft-mentioned sinkerballers
Val that's a disingenuous comparison
That being said, Schmidt has lost some velocity off his fastball and apparently some breaking balls cause him a little pain so he sticks with the changeup. He's an injury risk (as are most pitchers) but I'm not sure why you are projecting him (in the age of Schilling, Johnson and Clemens - where some older pitchers age remarkably well for whatever reason) that he's gonna suddenly collapse at age 36 or something. And I've read in scouting reports that the mechanics of his delivery are about as low stress and consistent as any in the game - which is good for avoiding injury.
my point re: johnson
We can debate about when, exactly, this will take place (and it could very well be his age 38 or 39 season, after this contract would be up), but I would just as soon not be on the hook for a $15M contract if it is two years from now.
for Johnson...
Johnson hit a wall
the fourth year of that contract will be Schmidt's
wrong---he'll be 37 in 4th year
Four years of Schmidt would get you his 34, 35 36, and 37 seasons.
Sometimes you gotta roll the dice. For a guy who's pitched as one of the top 5 or so pitchers in the league in three of the last four seasons, I don't think it's too crazy.
Look at a gut like John Smoltz---in many ways similar to Schmidt: same type of high-K pitcher, some injury issues earlier, usage patterns earlier in career that limited mileage on his arm, and now being very successful well into his 30s (Smoltz was 39 last year).
Except for that stretch where he was
I would be all for Schmidt if Zito weren't on the market--I just think age and durability make Zito the better bet, particularly considering that they are pitching at about the same level once you account for the fact that Schmidt plays in a very pitcher-friendly division in the NL, while Zito plays in a hitter-friendly division in the AL, and that Duncan really does seem to do well preparing curveball pitchers
I'm leery
It makes me nervouse that Zito's first few seasons were so much more dominant than his recent three seasons, whereas Schmidt---despite the age---has pitched better the last few years than he did earlier in his career.
If the Birds signed either, I'd be ecstatic---they're both potential shut-down type pitchers---but I feel that Schmidt would be cheaper and his recent performance is more reassuring to me than Zito's.
As for Smoltz, didn't he have the Tommy John surgery? That's no big deal these days, and once he had it and was recuperating the Braves started him out in the pen---the same way the Birds did with Matt Morris---and as he was dominating there and they had a need for a closer, that became his role. My impression was that once he was recuperated he pitched in the pen because that's where they needed him most---not because they didn't want him starting. Now that they need him to start, he's back to starting, and after finishing in the top 5 in saves three years in a row, he's no finished in the top 5 in IP the last two years.
On a Lighter Note...Lets Do It!!!
Make it Happen!
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 29, 2006 5:18 PM EST reply actions
WAKE UP AND SMELL THE BUDWEISER
This would be a totally uncharacteristic move for Sir Walt and I agree w/ others that predict he'll back off once he gets put in that "Burnett-type" situation.
To put it in perspective, we just won a world series with Weaver/Suppan coming up huge while Mark Mulder watched.
If it ain't fixed, don't break it...
by Vince Coleman Firecrackers on Nov 29, 2006 5:26 PM EST reply actions
Maybe
Suppan
Wells
Mulder/Weaver/Meche
Reyes
Sign the Mulder/Weaver/Meche to a 1 year deal with an option for a 2nd. Sign Suppan to a multiyear deal.
Reyes can become one hell of a 5th man. We know what Suppan and Carp can do. Wells is a project and if the Mulder/Weaver/Meche signing doesn't work, bring up Narv see what happens.
by Edmonds is baseball on Nov 29, 2006 5:28 PM EST reply actions
Bill James projections
http://cardsclubhouse.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=327634#327634
I have asked quite a few times how to set up a table here but am ignored by all you snobs. Otherwise, I wouldn't have to link it.
Scoop doesn't support tables in the comments
if you want to set up a diary with tables, then send me an email. They are pretty finicky even on the front page.
Schmidt-Zito
1)The fact that Zito has done that well in the American league while Schmidt's numbers come from the National League. Advantage Zito.
2)Many National league hitters haven't seen Zito very much so he has the advantage there to.
Judge rules: Pay Zito.
Cubs suck
Interesting about Ted Lilly
Rogers Centre ranked 4th of all major league parks last year, with a homerun park factor of 1.272, Busch III had a park factor of .887. It's hard to imagine how that couldn't help Lilly.
His 1.39 HR/9 could concievably become .97 if it follows this trend, which would be a better rate than any pitcher currently in the Cardinal rotation.
Although I'm still not crazy on Lilly, I'm willing to admit I might be too hard on him.
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 5:50 PM EST reply actions
Vicente Padilla, Miguel Batista...
Am I reading too far in to things, or is worth noting that the Cardinals haven't had a latin american starting pitcher in the rotation since 1999? I'm not accusing Duncan/La Russa/Jocketty of anything, but that's a little curious, right? Do they consider a potential language barrier? maybe not. I'm not trying to stir the pot, but I thought it was a half-legitimate point.
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 5:59 PM EST reply actions
No language barrier...
It is curious though. What would be more curious is to do a study of the average number of Latin starting pitchers most teams had over that time period. My guess would be somewhere in the 15% range.
You have to partially
Hudson?
His stats, inc. page describes this:
Hudson is a serious competitor when on the hill. He possesses a good low-90s fastball, along with an excellent changeup and slider. But it is a dirt-biting splitter, which tantalizes before the bottom falls out, that leaves hitters shaking their heads as they walk back to the dugout. Those who do make contact generally whack the ball into the ground, as Hudson secured twice as many groundouts as flyouts in 2004. That's a well-established ratio that works in Hudson's favor.
That reads to me like a Duncan wet dream.
What got me thinking is Rosenthal over at Fox Sports is saying the Braves want to move him to make room for Glavine. His salary is $6 million next year, then $13 the following two years. Average that out, and you've got $10 over 3 years. In this market, that's the kind of money Supps is going to get, and by all indiciations I see, this guy is more consistent that Supps over his career. Plus, don't Walt and the Braves GM have a pretty good working relationship?
Please somebody put me back in place if I'm off the deep end on this one.
Schmidt, last 5 years
WHIP: 3 times in top 8, led league once
H/9: 4 times in top 6
K/9: 4 times in top 5
K's: 4 times in top 8
CG: 3 times in top 5
ShO: 4 times in top 7, led league twice
This is a pitcher who is right now at the top of his game. Give him a good defense and some run support and he's a walking Cy Young candidate, as much as Carp is.
Those comparables that mentioned in the original post, the ones that yielded a projected ERA+ of 95, are irrelevant, given the nature of the pitchers on the list.
At age 33, Schmidt is coming off a run of fine seasons, maintaining a great (8+ K per 9) strikeout rate. His No. 1 comp, acccording to the list? Jack McDowell, who at age 33 was coming off three seasons of 41, 76, and 19 innings pitched. His No. 2 comp? Ramon Martinez, coming off five consecutive years of fewer than 135 ip.
Schmidt has more in common with Roger Clemens than he does either of those two, but because Schmidt's and Rocket's earlier careers were so dissimilar they aren't considered "good comps."
Throw $15 million at him---it'll be a hell of lot better spent than throwing $8 or $9 million at a Marquis-like stiff such as Meche.
Exactly
Are we the Toronto Blue Jays????
I want to know about his next 5 years.
Schmidt is on a downward trend, not an upward one.
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 29, 2006 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
Downward trend?
He was 8th in the NL in strikeouts.
6th in the NL in fewest hits allowed per 9.
2005 was an "off year" for Schmidt (a little groin-oriented DL time, but still better than any pitcher on the Cardinals not named Carpenter), but he was one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL in 2003 and 2004.
Schmidt is consistently among league leaders---even in 2006---in the peripherals we should care most about: most innings, fewest hits allowed, most strikeouts.
You can scoff at his being in the top 10 in ERA+ in three of the last four years, but the only other pitcher to do that in the NL is Carlos Zambrano.
Dude is a horse, and he can throw.
Sign him up for 4/60.
ummm...
by matt reeder on Nov 29, 2006 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
The point was
..and Schmidt's top two "most similar" pitchers---McDowell and Ramon Martinez---are only "most similar" because by age 33 they'd accumulated similar career stats...
But the POINT is that their careers have followed completley different arcs---both McDowell and R. Martinez were dominant early, while Schmidt has been dominant late---and therefore it's a dumb exercise to compare their post-age-33 careers to Schmidt's potential post-age-33 career.
Schmidt has been one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL the last 4 years, through his age-33 season.
By the time they were 33, both Martinez and McDowell had both been reduced to injured part-timers for several years running.
To project Schmidt going forward based on the post-age-33 careers of his "top two most-similar" pitchers is, in this case, dumb.
i agree completely with ya
Splash Pitching Acquisitions
It just seems to me that we have been prudent to not make large "splash" acquisitions in the past and we shouldn't change our course for Schmidt or Zito. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, our one large change to "put us over the top" ended up being one of the worst trades in history for the organization (Calero/Barton/Haren for Mulder). I remember being upset because we didn't get Mike Hampton when he signed with the Rockies, Kevin Brown when he signed with LA, Burnett when he signed with the Jays. Only Curt Schilling (with the Sox) and the signing of Randy Johnson by the D'Backs stand out to me as major acquisitions that put their respective teams over the top in the recent Free-Agent era. For each Big Unit, there were 10 team crippling contracts that I'd rather not have on our books for the next five years.
In Walt I trust. I hope we get Lilly and find a way to trade for Jake Westbrook.
by BigBrummerFan on Nov 29, 2006 6:18 PM EST reply actions
I like Westbrook
by ilillillli on Nov 29, 2006 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
On Lilly
He walks a ton of guys, which I'm not too excited about. But so does Zito. It seems like it goes around every year that Schmidt has lost velocity/is fatigued/etc, and that Zito always goes through a funk at some point in the year (one of those 6 + ERA in his last 8 starts sorta funks.) I say if everyone is slightly damaged goods, why not choose the guy that's 30 that could thrive in the NL? Just seems to be more bang for the buck, but I know there are doubters too.
by BigBrummerFan on Nov 29, 2006 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
About Schmidt...
However, I agree with Valatan that it may cost 4 yrs and $60 mil to get him. That's too much money and years for a pitcher who will be 34 in Jan.
Also, I don't believe that we will get a home-town discount on this one. In fact, it may take more money to convince him to move to the midwest. If he gives anyone a discount, it will be the west coast teams.
Crazy money is being spent this year and Schmidt will get his. Especially since the market for free agent pitchers is so poor.
I would have said sign Suppan for reasonable money but reasonable went out the window weeks ago. Did you see the contract Adam Eaton got! Maybe Weaver if we can catch Boras on an off day. Oh boy, I'm dreaming again.
I know it was but...
Forget about Zito...
Walt knows that the Mets, Yankees or maybe one of the west coast teams will offer huge money. My bet is he'll sign with the Mets to be reunited with his old pitching coach.
I'd really like to know....
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 29, 2006 7:32 PM EST reply actions
Carp + Schmidt = Monstrous
But it won't happen. Too many other clubs are in need of big names to prop up their franchises, and they'll throw crazy money at him. Also, unless he's seriously jones-ing for a championship, I can't see him wanting to come to town. Besides being in the midwest, I wonder how attractive the prospect of coming to work with Dunc is to a veteran pitcher. Somehow I doubt he feels like his mechanics need a review.
by rmerrill on Nov 29, 2006 7:48 PM EST reply actions
locking down carp
You lock him down NEXT YEAR.
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 29, 2006 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
Mulder
When I saw that Jock had traded for Mulder, I was ecstatic. Granted, I was a little iffy on the trading of Haren, but I have no problem with Mark Mulder being a St. Louis Cardinal.
A lot of people say a lot of things about how "terrible" Mulder was last year. He was hurt! It wasn't anything he did on purpose. Everybody seems to forget that Chris Carpenter was hurt with the Blue Jays, and for his first two years as a Cardinal. He's since turned into one of the best, if not THE best, pitcher in the National League.
I say all that just to say that I think if Jock doesn't make a serious attempt at re-signing Mulder, we could see him dominating National League hitters for years to come, all while wearing the wrong jersey. Do everything possible to re-sign him, let him get healthy, and let him come back and be the dominating Mulder of old.
Pujols calls the voters out...
Interesting to see from Pujols. He claims that "Someone who doesn't take his team to the playoffs doesn't deserve to win the MVP."
While I agree that Pu was snubbed, this seems out of line and out of class from the quiet star.
Any thoughts?
Pujols
I don't think it is a big deal for Albert to say this....BUT...
The media will rip him for this and will try to make him even more of a "bad guy". I mean once Bonds retires the media will have to make someone the "heel of baseball" and it seems like Albert is quickly being appointed this title. ESPN and guys like Jim Rome & Dan Patrick are leading the charge.
Unfortunally though Albert gives them soundbites like this to fuel the fire.
Not that bad
What he said is true, and 99% of the people agree with him.
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 29, 2006 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
Not only that, but
by rmerrill on Nov 30, 2006 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
I don't see where the lack of class is
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 30, 2006 2:01 AM EST up reply actions
dude thats funny
I got no problem with what Albert said. I only wish he would have said MORE. like what a joke the end of the year awards have become because now ESPN seams to choose who wins and looses each year. how stupid the writers are that didn't vote for him. he should have quoted his numbers verses howard's proving his point. howard got the "award" because all he does is hit home runs. and he plays on the east coast.
I won't be at all surprised if the media grabs this and runs about how big of a sour loser Albert is being. they hate the Cardinals and will do anything to bring anyone of them down. even the one guy who is above all reproach,,,,
Albert Pujols.
What's SNUBBED
Considering
Having said that, however, I also doubt that the Cardinals will trade Young Dunc unless they're just "blown away" by an offer. Yes, he had a couple of bad plays in the World Series... but I wonder just how much of that was due to the fact that he wasn't playing every game due to Detroit's lefthanders.
While I find advanced metrics (VORP, Win Shares, etc.) valuable in analysing what players/teams have done, using them to project what players will do requires almost as much guesswork as "traditional" (that is, eyeball-alone) scouting.
It's my opinion that projecting any player's major-league production based on his minor-league metrics is even "iffier." Taking Young Dunc as an example, my eyeballs showed me a significant change in his swing in 2006 from 2005. Dunc's '05 swing was much longer, leaving him with "holes" that pitchers could attack. He eliminated most of those "holes" in '06, and also showed more patience at the plate. So which is the "real" Chris Duncan... the one who will play in '07? I dunno... the sample size is still too small! (Conversely, you pretty much know what you'll get from Jeff Suppan... because his production has been quite consistent over several major-league seasons. Soup did have a "career" half-season/post-season in '06, pitching like an "Ace"... but it's much more likely that he will "regress to the mean" as a ground-ball innings-eater next season.)
Defensively, all anyone should want from Young Dunc is that he make the "routine" play. Have him take about 500 fly balls a day in Jupiter next spring, and I think you'll see solid improvement in that area as well.
by The Ol Goaler on Nov 30, 2006 9:44 AM EST up reply actions
Jocketty expecting Kennedy to sign this year?
I just wonder about this, I could come up with a dozen reasons why it could and couldn't be true, but if so, it might explain the contracts to Grudz and Miles/Spezio while waiting for any value at the position, or Kennedy specifically.
If this is really the case, might Jocketty hold off on a big signing this year, catiously watching Buehrle's year knowing he may come home on a discount?
Comment away!
Agreed
Carpenter
Mulder
Weaver
Wells
Reyes.
The discussion about Reyes this season was something like this. Is he a square peg in a round hole? Meaning is he being miscoached, or is he simply not that good? Either way I think he should be traded along with Dunc Jr. for a left fielding bat. That means we need another pitcher. Take your pick. Supp, lilly et al.
Now if you want to make a deal with Florida Dontrelle Willis is not the guy. The man you want is Miguel Cabrera.
why the new guys?
by cygnuslitemkk on Nov 29, 2006 10:27 PM EST reply actions
he said
by vince eating tarp on Nov 29, 2006 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
actually pitcher
by vince eating tarp on Nov 29, 2006 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
weaver was great ni the post season
8-14 5.76ERA 76ERA+
Weaver has risks all his own. It's entirely possible that weaver was regressing to the mean and/or Duncan fixed some flaw in delivery. But he was REALLY bad (like Jason Marquis bad) for the better portion of the regular season.
seems like
you know something i don't?
mulder...
Yes I agree about Mulder
Trading Reyes means you have to sign a second tier pitcher. I say take your pick. He will cost more than Reyes, but I would expect better results. Speically if Reyes can be traded for and outfielder.
Just a Thought
Like I said, just a thought. Give Zito his money (maybe he'd be inclined to take $12/13.5 mil to play w/ Mulder again), and re-sign Mulder to an incentive-laden deal (as mentioned before, he may want to play w/ Barry, he also was quoted as saying he wanted to show STL what he could do). Re-sign Weaver just as insurance, because lets face the reality of pitchers, not to be a Debbie Downer, but either Wells, Reyes, or Weaver will be a bust next season. Mulder has recently been reported as being courted by the D-Backs but they don't typically offer incentive-laden deals, and Zito is said to desire to play in a major-market team but STL's recent WS win and history may be enough to sway him. As far as Weaver, he has to realize that STl/LaDunc more than likely saved his career. These are just thoughts, and who knows, maybe we'd have a little extra cash to throw at Gonzo for a year or 2. If you are all like me you will be eagerly anticipating Walts moves in the upcoming weeks. Sit tight CardinalCrazies, good moves are sure to come.
by GoGoCards on Nov 30, 2006 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
my thoughts
by mudbuttt on Nov 30, 2006 1:44 AM EST reply actions
i dont know
REyes
by El Birdo Rojo on Nov 30, 2006 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
Claymation NLCS Game7 Highlights
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ijUgYmPzh0&mode=related&search=
History of Big Name Pitchers
I think we'll see the management sign a middle of the road pitcher (perhaps two), try and find another bat, and hopefully take that big money and spend it on a Carpenter extension -- as he's one dude who deserves it more than Zito or Schmidt
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