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whither edmonds?

Birdos_avatar_tiny by lboros on in News Comment 212 comments

Update [2006-11-2 12:21:43 by lboros]: scroll down to see how the SB Nation manager of the year polling turned out.[end update]

program notes: i did a fairly lengthy spot on outsider radio tuesday, talking about the cards' triumph in the world series and, in a more general sense, about the playoff format and the marketing of baseball. the link is here; my segment is in the last 1/3 of the show. have another spot coming up on sports byline usa to promote Diehard Cards, will provide a link when available.

another pair of SB Nation award winners will be announced later today; managers of the year. the cy young winners will come out tomorrow, with the al mvp to come on monday and the nl mvp on tuesday. these results will always arrive as updates to the main post, because they're not available for publication until noon eastern time.

as for a general off-season posting schedule: as long as valatan and erik are up for posting through the winter, we should have new material up 6 days a week; i'll be posting mon-tues and thur-fri, with V on wednesday and erik on sunday. if a significant roster move happens on a saturday, we'll get up a quick post about it. i anticipate renewing some of last off-season's tropes, particularly the roster matrix (see here for an example from last november) and the community projections (example). i may also try to line up a hot-stove interview or three.

on to more interesting subjects. perhaps the biggest, and certainly the most immediate, decision facing the cardinals this off-season is whether or not to pick up edmonds' option. they can keep him for next year at a $10m salary, or buy him out for $3m and let him become a free agent. they have to make that call soon --- within the next 10 days or so, i believe. will they do it? should they do it? my opinions are "no" and "depends," and this is why:

will they bring edmonds back?
we've already heard straight from la russa that if edmonds comes back, it'll likely be on a renegotiated deal --- an extra year or two on the contract at a decreased per-year salary. i doubt that edmonds would go for that. he stated loudly at midseason that he'd been promised his option for 2007 would be picked up at $10m, and he was frustrated that the club had gone back on its word; he also compared his situation to those of woody williams, mike matheney, matt morris, mark grudzielanek, and other veterans who were (in their eyes) cast aside with less than full courtesy. maybe edmonds was just speaking out of frustration, or maybe he genuinely felt betrayed; to me, the comments smacked of PR positioning. ie, i think he knew the club would try to retain him at a lower salary, and he wanted the club --- not himself --- to bear the blame when he rejects the offer. that's just my read of the situation; your opinion may differ. i think he doesn't want to look like a greedy ballplayer who turned down a reasonable offer; he wants to look like an aggrieved star who gave his all to the franchise and the city, only to be treated shabbily in the end.

if edmonds does test the market, he can probably get the same type of deal that moises alou and steve finley got in their late 30s --- two years, $15m or so. the cardinals might offer him that same deal, but they'd have to insist that he waive the $3m buyout because otherwise they're not really saving any money; they'd just be paying him $10m this year ($3m buyout + $7.5m salary) and $7.5m next year, which defeats the purpose. would edmonds give up that $3m so he can stay in st louis and have a chance to "retire a cardinal," as he has long expressed a desire to do? i'll believe it when i see it.

should they bring edmonds back?
this is a very complicated call, and it has to begin with a realistic view of edmonds himself: an aging player with declining health and declining skills. he's down across the board --- playing time, power, on-base ability, the whole thing:

pa avg obp slg bb/pa iso
2004 612 .301 .418 .643 .165 .342
2005 566 .263 .385 .533 .161 .270
2006 408 .257 .350 .471 .130 .214

the playing time alone imposes a major ceiling on his value. edmonds suffered this year from shoulder and abdominal woes, as well as a serious concussion; the shoulder problem was a carryover from late 2005. at age 37, he can't be counted on for more than 500 plate appearances in 2007. i also question how likely edmonds is to regain his effectiveness as a hitter. in only 2 months out of the last 9 --- ie, all 6 months of 2006, and the last 3 or 2005 --- has edmonds slugged over .500. he had spurts of power in september 2005 and july 2006, but aside from those two very short runs he hasn't been a dangerous hitter for a season and a half.

admittedly, a diminished jim edmonds is still a very effective player; baseball prospectus assessed his value at 3.5 wins above replacement this year, despite his injuries and slack statistics. if we accept mgl's benchmark that a win is worth roughly $2m, then edmonds was a $7 million player in 2006. at the very least, he ought to be able to maintain that level of play in 2007. but that really isn't the issue; the question is whether or not edmonds represents the best available use of the $10m in payroll. i can think of at least one option that might be a better use. i'll throw it out for consideration; the response should be interesting. here goes:

dave roberts.

now, before you jump all over me, i am not going to argue that dave roberts is a better baseball player than jim edmonds. but i think he might be a better value than edmonds --- ie, a better return on the dollar. and in the era of moneyball, that is really the only question that matters. roberts might be a downgrade in the outfield compared to edmonds, but he wouldn't be as big a downgrade as you think; he would, however, be a major downgrade in salary, even if you factor in edmonds' buyout clause --- and the payroll savings could be used to fill other holes. so if the choices are:

  • spend $10m on edmonds, or
  • spend $10m to buy out edmonds and sign dave roberts and, say, adam kennedy
i think you have to weigh both options carefully. these are my assumptions:
  1. roberts is nearly as good as edmonds. in the last two seasons at offense-stifling petco, roberts has posted a cumulative .767 ops; get him out of that adverse hitting environment and he's capable of close to .800. edmonds at this stage of his career is no more than an .850 ops guy, so the downgrade from him to roberts isn't as steep as you might think at first blush. baseball prospectus valued roberts at 5.6 wins above replacement in 2006, or two wins better than edmonds; even if you assume that those numbers flip-flop in 2007 (and that's assuming a lot), roberts is simply not a precipitous downgrade.
  2. roberts will cost a lot less than edmonds. players of his type --- speedy singles hitters, particularly outfielders --- don't generally make much as free agents. the cardinals already have one such player on the roster, eckstein --- he signed a 3-year deal for $10m, or about $3.5m a year. likewise, the dodgers got ken lofton for $4m / 1 yr. the exceptions to this rule are guys like rafael furcal and jimmy rollins, who a) are younger than roberts (he is 34), and b) play shortstop rather than the outfield. roberts made $2.25 million in his final arbitration-eligible year; i think he could be signed to a two- or three-year deal very similar to eckstein's, with a 2007 salary of no more than $3.5m.
if my assumption is correct and you could, in fact, get roberts for $3.5m in 2007, then after buying out edmonds for $3m you'd still have $3.5m in the till to address a hole somewhere else on the roster. that money might go into either the rotation or a new second baseman; i mentioned kennedy above, but you could probably get ronnie belliard (not that i'm advocating) for that price, or craig counsell for less; you could also pay half of ray durham's salary for $3.5m. so even if the cards lost a little bit in the outfield (and that is far from a given) by shifting from edmonds to roberts, they could still come out ahead on the deal overall.

the question, ultimately, isn't whether edmonds is worth $10m; it's whether there are other ways to spend that money and get a better return on it. and i think that's a debatable point; lot of evidence to support both sides of the argument. also a lot of risk, either way you go; if it were me, i'd take my chances with the value-priced players and spread my risk around, rather than placing one very large bet on a player who might prove to be washed up.

SB NATION MANAGER OF THE YEAR POLLING:

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I wouldn't mind seeing Dave Roberts
in a Cards uniform. I'd definitely rather see Jimmy back out there though. I would be very sad to see Jimmy go. Hopefully he wants to retire here bad enough to stay for less money, although I couldn't blame him if he chose not to.
"We came, we saw, WE KICKED IT'S ASS!!"

by iron duke75 on Nov 2, 2006 9:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

How
did the community do in those projections, anyway?
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2006 9:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

we did awesome
on that rolen example, didn't we?

good question; i'll run a post on that sometime soon.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 9:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not too shabby
on Rolen. Maybe The Truth is in the masses.
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2006 9:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

other offseason ideas....
when the revenue sharing numbers come out, i think it would be a cool article to break them down a bit.  i don't think that anyone realizes what the birds pay into the system.

by BigJawnMize on Nov 2, 2006 1:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

From the Rolen projection thread:
Jeff Weaver -- ick!
from Rotoworld.com

"The Angels remain open to signing Jeff Weaver, but they're not going longer than one year with an option for 2007 to get him.
The Los Angeles Times believes the Cardinals and Mets are also interested in Weaver, although the Mets have denied it."

I sincerely hope not...Jeff Weaver is not going to get us closer to a pennant.  I vaguely recall Jocketty saying no to this previously but it worries me that we are still hearing rumors about it...

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Fri Feb 03, 2006 at 04:18:56 AM CST
[ Reply to This ]

Ummmmmm.... azruavatar? Care to respond?

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2006 9:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Amusing
Had Weaver been with Duncan the entire season, how effective would he have been?  I would have rather had Weaver than Ponson.
Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Win it for JB and DK57

by cardsfan84 on Nov 2, 2006 10:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is why I love these internets
Jeff Weaver - world shocker.  

azruavatar looked like a genius in June.  He looks like a goat in November.  

by Schnake on Nov 2, 2006 10:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it happens
I made that comment before the season starter when Weaver was still floating about randomly.  His regular season seems to bear witness to my sentiment. 5.76 season ERA, with only serious deviation being the postseason.  

It looks bad at the moment but you have to evaluate it in context and look at what he did the whole season.

basically I was right about Weaver with the exception of like 4 postseason games.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 6, 2006 8:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sign me up for a large helping of crow
I got no problem saying I was wrong on this one.  His numbers all season had been bad.  I knew that he always had good raw stuff but with as many years as he had in the league, I didn't think that he was going to turn it around.

I'm still not convinced that Weaver is anything more than a #3 but I am impressed with his (seeming) turnaround under Duncan.  It's silly to think anyone could have anticipated a sub-3 postseason ERA. I still stand by my comment made at that time.  I was ok with the trade once it took place since we gave up so little (I'm still not on the Terry Evans bandwagon) and since the Angels ate alot of the remaining contract.

I'm glad to be wrong.  Thank you Mr. Weaver.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 2, 2006 7:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That all
makes good sense. I'd like to see JEd back and I'd love to see him retire a Bird, but I don't see him turning down an extra 3 million just to stay either. I've been a huge fan of the guy since day one, but now that he's got a ring I think he'll try to squeeze every last dime out of it (not to say he shouldn't--hell, most of us would in his shoes). I just hope he does whatever he does without whining much in the media. If he stays or goes, I hope it will be on an amicable note.

by rockin redbird on Nov 2, 2006 9:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Aaron Roward is a FA....
The mutual option the Phils had was declined by both parties. What about trying to sign him?
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Nov 2, 2006 9:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks to the Hardball Times...
I see that Roberts is by far the better player.

Playing in hitter-friendly Philadelphia... Rowand had an OPS of .746 with 5 Win Shares.

Hitting in Mammoth Cave, er, Petco Park, Roberts put up a .750 OPS with 16 Win Shares. He also stole almost 50 bases with an 89% success rate.

Rowand's affinity for kissing outfield fences makes him look like the better defender... but Roberts actually had more fielding Win Shares in 2006.

LB, even if we keep Jimmy... is there a possibility of signing Roberts to play a corner?

by Matt on Nov 2, 2006 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i'd be in favor
i think roberts is a damn good player, and i think ---- i could be way off base here --- that at his age he's going to come cheap.

if it's gonna cost $6m to sign him, he's not so attractive . . . . . but i don't think he will be that expensive

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 10:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The
information out there so far is that Colorado is intersted in Roberts at a 2-3 year deal around 3-4 million a year. Really not bad at all, if you are certian he will hold up.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 10:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

roberts
i think the cards need someone like roberts even if they keep jim ed.  they need a capable CF to fill in when he is injured or just to provide regular rest and they need someone to help out on the corners.  they cant really afford to have dunc and encar on the corners at the same time for too many innings.  that would be one awful defense.  they also need someone to play a corner if dunc doesnt turn out as hoped.  basically, they need a better taguchi.  i am not sure that skip schumaker can be that guy.

by dmb60614 on Nov 2, 2006 10:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

encion
and i thought the encarnacion signing was a way of hedging our bets against edmonds leaving this year - since enc'ion used to play cf. not that i'm advocating for this at all, but it was the only way i could understand the enc'ion signing in the first place. of course, it worked! we won! so what do i know...

by airhad on Nov 2, 2006 11:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think we trade Juan
His not showing at the parade is not going to be forgotten by the fans....or Tony.  If he thinks he had it rough getting boo'd last year......
to crush your enemies, to see them driven before you....and to hear the lamentation of the women!

by cardsnutincali on Nov 2, 2006 2:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i would love
to see enc'ion traded. What kind of team/gm would value him? Would the Marlins want to dance with him again? Highly unlikely at his price tag. Would the Dodgers again be interested? Is there another GM out there that would still think Juan's "toolsy" enough to take a chance on? Please, bring 'em on! Of course, then that begs the question - what do we replace him with?

by airhad on Nov 2, 2006 3:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

older speed players not bad gamble.
If I'm not mistaken, i think speed based players on the whole tend to maintain their skill sets better as they age, i.e. r henderson, k lofton, etc.

by airhad on Nov 2, 2006 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not a FA
rowand isnt a free agent.  he is still arbitration eligible.

by dmb60614 on Nov 2, 2006 10:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This whole thing troubles me
I know Jimmy isn't the same guy as we knew in 2004. It's easy to see his decline--like when those dingers turn into warning track outs--but the dude's my favorite play on the team. Has been for years. Yeah, Pujols is the man, but I've known Jimmy longer.

I'm glad I'm not the one making this decision, because for me there would be far too much emotion involved for me to think straight. Still, I'd hate to see the Ozzie situation repeated when TLR sits him on the bench for half the games next season when his numbers don't improve.

by effin fisk on Nov 2, 2006 10:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Who's your 3rd rbi guy?
If you're giving up Edmonds to get, say Roberts, you're also gonna have to spend money to get an rbi guy to replace him.   How many rbi's will Roberts give us?  

Your lineup would be, what....?

Eck
Roberts
Pujols
Rolen
Duncan

by sdrone on Nov 2, 2006 10:19 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

As I explain below
With either Edmonds or Roberts, I think you will have health problems and need a 4 man outfield rotation.

Imagine a lineup of say this come playoff time:

Eck
Roberts
Albert
Rolen
Alou
Duncan

or
Eck
Roberts
Albert
Rolen
Edmonds
Duncan

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 10:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Imagining Alou in my team's lineup
makes me want to hit something.

by sdrone on Nov 2, 2006 10:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

makes me
want to wash my hands
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2006 10:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ex-cub
it'll jinx our postseason

by Schnake on Nov 2, 2006 10:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is
that a good thing?  

Alou put up good numbers this season when he was healthy. On a team like the Cards in limited time to keep him healthy, he could be really really valuabe, especialy since he can be had for 5 million or less.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 10:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Again with the ancient outfielders?
Geez, this attachment to signing old guys is really a mystery to me.  We now have the cover to get younger and rebuild, and we're still talking about Moises freakin' Alou.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Nov 2, 2006 10:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The
attachement is pretty logical. There are a number of over 30 outfielder on the market this offseason and I don't really like any of the big time younger free agents. So that leaves you with the option of putting together the best possible offense with the peices that remain. You don't think Alou, Roberts, Trot Nixon, Luis Gonzalez and the like could be valuabe to the Cardinals?

I mean even if the Cardinals resign Edmonds, you are talking about a 37 year old CF who will play no more than 140 games, and would be best served playing only around 120 games. Edmonds is in the same boat as most of the other players I listed above and all can be signed to 1, 2 or 3 year deals, allowing the Cards flexablity to sign major offensive peices that are more attractive or put together deals to lock up the organizations younger players in years to come.

It makes complete sense to patch the outfield this offesason with a combo of vets + Juan E. and Duncan to make a good outfield that can hit and stay healthy throughout the regular season and bring together a good group for the postseason.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 11:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's pretty well established that rbis
reflect opportunity as much as skill. if you bat with men on base, you'll get your rbis.

so if roberts does what he can do --- get on base and get himself into scoring position --- then everybody who bats lower down in the order (encarnacion duncan molina and the 2bman) should see their rbis increase.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 10:30 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tommy Herr once had..
110 rbis while slugging about .415...

by guayzimi on Nov 2, 2006 10:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah but
Tommy had Vince (.267 avg, .320 obp, 110 sb) and Willie (.353, .386, 56 SB) batting in front of him.

He is also still regarded as one of the best players ever in getting a guy home from 3rd with less than two outs.

by Zubin on Nov 2, 2006 11:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

agreed
maybe the difference here really is "pop" vs rbis.  Unforutnately with the pop, usually comes a propensity to K

by shr3dd3r on Nov 2, 2006 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not to be a smark alek then, but
shouldn't Encarnacion have 100 RBIs?

by sdrone on Nov 2, 2006 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
He should have
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2006 10:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no
It's easy to diss on the guy, but he batted .310 with RISP (5.2 clutch) vs .280 for rolen (-4.2 clutch) and .239 (also -4.2 clutch) for Edmonds.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?playerId=320&firstName=Juan&lastNa me=Encarnacion

You either get all the glory or all the... goat hair. -mike shannon

by SleepyCA on Nov 2, 2006 1:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

of course
neither Rolen nor Edmonds had 100 RBI's either...
You either get all the glory or all the... goat hair. -mike shannon

by SleepyCA on Nov 2, 2006 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Juan was ok
but, I can't stand to see him stumble out of the batters box any more. He just looks so clumsy.

by stl4all on Nov 2, 2006 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Where would
Roberts bat?  Leadoff, I guess, and Eckstein 8th?

by jfs on Nov 2, 2006 10:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

was wondering the same this
And then if we really did go after Kennedy (i know you were just throwing a name out there), we would have three scrappy singles hitters out there.  

Would love to plug some RBI replacement in there somewhere

by shr3dd3r on Nov 2, 2006 10:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ray durham
would be an rbi option at 2b --- he has pop. but he's gonna make a fortune after his year in 2006 --- 26 homers, .293 / .360 / .538.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not a fan of Durham
Probably a moot point as you said he will have a high price.

But he has a history of being an injury risk.  And his defense is poor at second.  Vizquel, even at his advanced age, disguises a lot of Durham's defensive weakness.

2006 World Champs! Inconceivable! You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

by BozCardsFanSF on Nov 2, 2006 10:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about...
Rich Aurilia? He just opted out to become a free agent. Can play all 4 IF spots and hit .300/.349/.518 with 23HR in under 500 PA. Will probably cost much less than Durham.

by bdief on Nov 2, 2006 11:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus
he's a noted Cardinals killer. If we could snatch up him and Roberts, only Beltran and Barrett would be left.
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2006 11:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I suggested Aurilla last off-season
everyione here called him a carcas.

by Zubin on Nov 2, 2006 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

They were wrong.
He has a pulse. More than what the Card's 2B produced this year.

by bdief on Nov 3, 2006 4:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Better re-install the AstroTurf
With a lineup featuring Roberts, Eckstein, Kennedy and JuanE, they would have to leg out a lot of infield hits to score many runs.

Roberts is a good player, no doubt, but I don't really see how he fits into this team's needs other than on a strictly salary basis.

by blove121 on Nov 2, 2006 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's not like edmonds
is a 30-hr guy anymore . . . . . he hit 19 last season. if you get 5 hr out of roberts, you've only lost 14 homers. spend the payroll savings wisely and you can make up the difference.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 10:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The question is
what do you do with the difference in the payroll.

If you could sign Alou and Roberts for a total of 8 million this season (4.5 for Alou on a 1 year deal, 3.5 for Roberts on a 3 year deal) + the 3 million buyout for Edmonds, then the deal really isn't that bad.

The key is the team must protect its outfield from injuries, because with Edmonds, or Alou, or Roberts, all are injury prone.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 10:48 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

medwick, you are persuasive
i'm buying in to the 4-outfielder idea.

in addition to roberts, the guys in the $3m-$4m range include frank catalonotto, dave dellucci (he'll probably go even cheaper), craig wilson (also cheaper), mark derosa, and our very own preston wilson . . . . you could probably get two of them for $7m, rotate them with duncan and j-enc, and have at least as much production as you would with edmonds --- but also a lot more flexibility and a lot less downside risk.

i can see it.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

this all
presupposes that Edmonds production this year is more indicative of his production next year than all of his previous years in StL are.  I see the logic, in that he is aging...but players now are performing into their late 30s and early 40s.  I don't think 19hr are necessarily indicative of what he can do.  Especially not what he can do compared to other CF.  If he gets healthy, and can stay that way for a season, he's worth more.  Essentially he's a 7m dollar player - because we pay the 3 even if we get nothing.  I don't know if you can get two players to produce like Edmonds for that.  You aren't going to get Alou and Roberts for 7 million next year.  Alou will make more than 5m by himself.  He's still a major league hitter, even at his age.  

by Toddius396 on Nov 2, 2006 11:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

roberts and alou
would cost more than $7m. but you could get roberts and catalonatto for that price.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 12:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True
Roberts and Alou might be closer to 9 million, but also remember that if you have an outfield of Edmonds, Juan E. and Duncan, you will still need a above average 4th outfielder to rotate in to give Edmonds days off and to sit duncan against the tough lefties.

So remember that even with Edmonds at 10 million (7+3), you will also have to sign a guy like a Delluci to be the 4th guy. Pretty soon you are talking about 15 or 16 million to outfit your outfield, just to keep Edmonds and hege against the time off he will need to be a productive healthy player.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 1:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

4-outfielders
TLR would love it.  Makes it easy for him to move his pitchers in and out especially if you have them hitting throughout the lineup.
Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 2, 2006 7:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well
To my friends, I have been pushing Roberts recently, because I think he does represent a good value play and would provide the Cardinals with a clear upgrade at the #2 hole in the lineup.

The key for me though, is that Roberts has never been a particuarly healthy player. Much like Edmonds, it is hard to count on Roberts to play more than 500 games. Think back a few years and remember Roberts constant struggles with hamstring problems. 2006 represents a career high for Roberts with 127 games played and 499 at bats.

Frankly, assuming that the Cardinals have to keep Juan E and that Duncan will move into the outfield rotation, brining in either Roberts of Edmonds will require the Cardinals to play a true 4 man outfield, where each of the 4 outfielders plays around 120 games to keep everyone healthy and to allow Tony to mix and match with Duncan against lefties.

The question you must ask yourself is whether the Cardinals are better off with a rotation of

Edmonds, Juan, Ducnan and a 4th player (I think Alou would be a perfect fit in limited time)

Roberts, Juan, Duncan and a 4th player (again think Alou)

or making a major free agent signing like Lee or Roberts to match with Juan E and Duncan in the outfield.

I personaly don't like the idea of Juan E in center or the long term prospects of Lee as an NL outfielder, so I would much rather side with a move that gives the Cardinals a veteran outfield like those I described above.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 10:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Be very careful
I think we need to be very careful before considering signing Dave Roberts.  He just finished a career year with the Padres at the plate, and although I think he won't pull a Adrian Beltre-type decline next season offensively, it's completely reasonable to expect his production to be down.  Also he played mostly left field for the Pads last season (Cameron patrolled CF); he has the speed to play center, but if Bochy didn't trust him in that outfield why would we think he can cover it at Busch?

Padres have already lost Bochy and declined options on Piazza and Klesko - PR-wise they're in a tailspin.  They need some positive energy, and signing Roberts would be a good move.  If Jocketty throws his hat in that ring he may be forced to pay more than he wants to.

Tommy Herr is STILL better than Ryno.

by TantoVanLanstrum on Nov 2, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

have to say
the reason cam was in center was because he is a gold glover there, and it was not really a reflection on roberts that he was in left

by bigcardsfan5 on Nov 2, 2006 3:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

500 games
make that 500 at bats.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 10:21 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Soriano rumor false
Just in case anyone didn't see but still, how would you not like this lineup:

Eckstein SS
Soriano 2B
Pujols 1B
Edmonds CF
Rolen 3B
Duncan LF
Encarnacion (unless traded than Schumaker) RF
Molina C
P

I'd really like to see Soriano as a Cardinal.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Win it for JB and DK57

by cardsfan84 on Nov 2, 2006 10:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

don't forget
The trade of Rolen for A-Rod!

j/k

by shr3dd3r on Nov 2, 2006 10:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

did anyone else see
the front page of theonion.com?

Spot on, indirect assault of the media in regard to the Cardinals.

by bostoncardsfan on Nov 2, 2006 10:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

mmmmmm
that's good satire!
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 2, 2006 10:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO
I've been waiting for something like that from the Onion.

Spot on indeed...

"We came, we saw, WE KICKED IT'S ASS!!"

by iron duke75 on Nov 2, 2006 12:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just spotted this on the Onion sports ticker...
LATEST: Hustling David Eckstein Finishes Cardinals Victory Parade 45 Minutes Before Rest Of Team...
"We came, we saw, WE KICKED IT'S ASS!!"

by iron duke75 on Nov 2, 2006 12:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

moneyball, shmoneyball.
i understand the whole "moneyball" concept.  and if you are talking strictly about business (and some would argue that's all baseball is), then i'd agree.  but i'm just not a follower of this whole philosophy.

first...a confession.  i'm about as big of an edmonds fan as there is out there.  said it before on this site, but watching jimmy ballgame play centerfield just makes me feel good about myself.  for me, it's the same as watching ozzie play shortstop.  i just loved it.  and i just love seeing jed patrol centerfield.  watching him go back on a baseball hit over his head is just the straight dope for me.

now, having said that, baseball is more than "business."  it has to be.  i think tlr gets this.  it's not just numbers or stats or propensities.  it's about people.  

so when you talk about bringing jed back, you can talk about win-shares and ops and ceilings.  you have to.  but don't you ALSO have to look at jed and what he's done for this organization?  his leadership in the clubhouse, his seniority, his attitude, his work ethic, his committment.  oh...and don't you have to look at his performance this post-season?  and last post-season?  and how he shows up in big games?  don't you HAVE TO look at those things?  is there a shred of loyalty in this game?  because if there is, then the answers to your question is HELL YES we should bring jed back.  

to be clear, i'm not advocating BLIND loyalty.  if jed was asking for $15m next year, then we'd just have to say...."gosh, thanks jimmy for all you have done for us, but that's just not feasible."  or maybe if there was someone out there that was so clearly a better fit for this team than jed, i'd say go after him.  

fact is, and you stated it well in the op, roberts or whoever is not a significant upgrade.  maybe not even an upgrade at all.  who knows?  jed could come back healthy and have a big year.  (and yes...i know the inverse could happen too).  

this seems like one of those "all things being equal" scenario's.  and i'll just say it straight out... all things being equal (or even close to equal), i think it's mandatory that we bring jed back.  we HAVE TO.  we HAVE TO because of what he's done for us.  we HAVE TO because we need to demonstrate to everyone what we already know, this organization is the best in baseball and we take care of our own.  we HAVE TO  because jimmy ballgame has been as big of a part of cardinals baseball as anyone in the last 20 years.  we HAVE TO because we are loyal.

oh.....and we HAVE TO because if i have to look out in centerfield next year and see someone other than jed out there, well.....i just don't know how i'd come to grips with it.  turnover is inevitable, but not right now.  it's not time.  not yet.  

by busch league on Nov 2, 2006 10:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I just don't see...
any comparables to JEd out there... even an aging, part-time JEd. The biggest question mark in my mind is how to keep him healthy. I think he's still a "core" player in the clubhouse, and one the Cards need to keep (at the right price, of course.)

Roberts is an intriguing alternative... but where-oh-where do you pick up the RBIs?

"A man should live forever, or die trying." -- Mike Callahan

by The Ol Goaler on Nov 2, 2006 10:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

have to look at the combo
The savings from not having edmonds would allow you to spend the money elsewhere.  I agree it's hard to compare on a one to one replacement basis.

by shr3dd3r on Nov 2, 2006 10:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder ...
if Edmonds, quietly experiencing more of those post-concuss symptoms into the winter, will just quit while he's ahead, show up for the ring ceremony, hear the cheers, and head back home? Going out on top isn't a bad thing.

by Urban Pawnee on Nov 2, 2006 10:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

moneyball
many of you have spoken of the "large financial windfall" a championship affords. Does anyone think that Jocketty is really approaching our budget as a zero-sum game?

Does paying Edmonds $7mm really = Adam Kennedy over Ray Durham or something equally ridiculous? Are you guys really looking at it this way?

If Edmonds and Durham are considered by Jocketty to be helpful to this club next year, he will not go about attaining their services based on mutual exclusivity.

Sure, this is within reason, but I don't expect us to not sign Edmonds based on a need for a $93mm dollar payroll over a $95mm payroll.

Edmonds services will not be replaced for less than $5mm, period. Pay him seven, then, onward and upward.

I understand getting better value for your dollar, but some people are treating this issue with ridiculous exclusivity.

by plh903 on Nov 2, 2006 3:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

moneyball
many of you have spoken of the "large financial windfall" a championship affords. Does anyone think that Jocketty is really approaching our budget as a zero-sum game?

Does paying Edmonds $7mm really = Adam Kennedy over Ray Durham or something equally ridiculous? Are you guys really looking at it this way?

If Edmonds and Durham are considered by Jocketty to be helpful to this club next year, he will not go about attaining their services based on mutual exclusivity.

Sure, this is within reason, but I don't expect us to not sign Edmonds based on a need for a $93mm dollar payroll over a $95mm payroll.

Edmonds services will not be replaced for less than $5mm, period. Pay him seven, then, onward and upward.

I understand getting better value for your dollar, but some people are treating this issue with ridiculous exclusivity.

by plh903 on Nov 2, 2006 3:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You can take Moneyball too far
If you are always searching for "value" you will end up with an entire lineup of reasonably-priced, above average players.  You might be getting the best possible return on your payroll investment, in terms of bang for the buck...but you probably will not field a good enough team to compete at the highest level.

The Cardinals have done an excellent job of paying what it takes to keep their elite players (Rolen, Pujols, Carpenter, Izzy and Edmonds in their primes) and using a value approach to building the rest of the roster.  You have to have some elite players, even if, on a dollar-for-dollar basis, they aren't as great a "value."

I have to assume they will use the same approach with Edmonds in this go-around.  I don't think, at this stage, that Edmonds is an elite player any more.  Still, signing a Roberts only makes sense if it is combined with some other moves--going after Carlos Lee, and trading Duncan for rotation help.

by blove121 on Nov 2, 2006 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I'd bet that an
"entire lineup of above-average players" would be a pretty damn good team.  As we've seen with the 2006 Cardinals, it's having too many below-average players that can kill you (or almost kill you, in our case).

by MdRedbirdFreak on Nov 2, 2006 10:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're on to something here
The BP guys talk about how if you have a team that projects to win say 82-90 games (depending on strength of division) it can make sense to "overpay" to get a guy that puts you over the top and into the playoffs, since making the playoffs is such a big financial windfall. I think the Cards are going to have to overpay at least one outfielder to maintain a playoff-quality lineup next year.

by mikedallas23 on Nov 2, 2006 11:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i'd rather have them
overpay for a pitcher . . . . . it was pitching that won this world title, and pitching is where the team's needs are greatest heading into next year.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 11:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True, but..
What SP's are available that can be truly dominant? Schmidt, Zito, the Japanese guy, I can't think of too many more. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see them sign Schmidt but I think the Yankees/Red Sox will be willing to overpay him even more than we will. To me it comes down which position we can get away with just overpaying at and not ridiculously overpaying.

by mikedallas23 on Nov 2, 2006 11:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gil Meche
could be really good.  Randy Wolf has been pretty good at times in the past.

by Toddius396 on Nov 2, 2006 12:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My current pet:
Kip Wells.  Was very good, now horrible but still has great GB/FB.  Sounds like a Duncan project to me.
Pujols > God

by joker24 on Nov 2, 2006 6:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well
Pujols is one of the best per-win values in baseball.  Edmonds was one of the best per-win values in baseball.  Carpenter was one of the best per-win values in baseball.  Rolen when he is right has a great per-win value.  Those four guys are 12, 9-10, 9 and 9 win players respectively getting paid far less than the value of a 9-win player.

Our elite players are some of the best values on a dollar-for-dollar basis and that is what makes the Cardinals a great team.

Carlos Lee according the the more advanced metrics really isn't great.  Soriano has been an above average player 2 of the last 3 years.  Guess which one was the contract year?

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Nov 2, 2006 6:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well said.
I aslo have to admit that I've got a heavy pro-Edmonds bias, but I agree completely with what you're saying.  St. Louis's (perhaps self-apointed) reputation of being "the best fans in baseball" comes from more than a high per-capita acounant population in the metro area, more than a sabermetric fluid pumped into the water suply, and certainly more than a Michael Lewis paperback.

Baseball, in its full splendor, is a more-than-the-sum-of-its-parts style game.  It's an Ozzie Smith (or Yadi Molina) homerun.  Its a diving Edmonds catch.  Its whatever forces La Russa to finally take off those shades and smile.  And if you want to talk dollars, its Scott Rolen taking a 8yr/$90MM contract here over a 8yr/$140 contract in Philly.

There's something to be said for dollars and cents, but this game's a little more than that.  I think that maybe the best evidence is this past postseason. An 83-win team wins it all?  In a post-game interview a softer-than-normal Tony La Russa confesses how happy he was to see his shortstop and his centerfielder back on the field.  

Baseball, particularly this rare Cardinals tradition, is more than dollars and cents.  Seeing a few more uppercut homeruns, flamboiant dives away from a high-and-tight fastball, and a 37-year-old, mostly-broken man gutting it out and diving into the turf to make a catch for his teammates, for his manager, for the city of St. Louis... that's value.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 10:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i appreciate your passion
but if edmonds is hitting .240 in mid-june with 6 hr, they'll be booing him at busch stadium. and ripping him to shreds on this board.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 11:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just don't think that's too likely
I think Jimmy putting up those stats through June would be as likely as Pujols hitting .270 with 10 HRs through June.

Even if Edmonds did that, I think people (even here) would cut him a large amount of slack.  If the FA replacements put up those numbers (and I don't see why the other aging replacements discussed here would be any less likely to decline) they would be booed mercilessly and the team would likely have to go through all sorts of media turmoil that would also spill over to the clubhouse.  

by bailorg on Nov 2, 2006 12:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i don't believe that.
he was hitting .247 with 7 hr's in mid-june this year.  was he being booed?  that's not rhetorical.  i only went to 2 games this year so i wouldn't know.  you would know better.  

but i would bet hard against the fact that he was getting booed.  with all jed has done for this organization and with how well he is loved in this nation (cards nation), i don't believe for a second that he'll get booed.  no way.

by busch league on Nov 2, 2006 12:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

right --- his stats from this june
are what i was referring to. through june 30 he was at .252 with 7 hr.

re booing, maybe i'm exaggerating. i was thinking of isringhausen and all the boos he heard this year from the very get-go, as well as the savage treatment that rolen got in october (in the chat rooms and on the radio) until he finally began to hit. i don't believe edmonds was booed last year, and maybe he wouldn't get booed next year either --- maybe i am overreaching there.

but i don't think it's a reach to say that st louis fans expect performance. i don't think they would be satisfied with a team that had mere sentimental value. they want to win.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree....
That Jimmy deserves our respect and support,  because we are the Cardinals,( no repeat of the Ozzie fiasco) I do hope Jimmy Hollywood will be back for his final games as a player. I do think that it depends on his attitude, and his plan for finishing out his career. Realistically two years and he will be done as a player. How we fit this in with our long-term plans? As an option, excercise the 10 mil option, and sign Roberts; that would give Jimmy his swan song seson as a Card, and give us a solid bat to get on base for Albert and Company. It also gives us the flexibility to go after a Gonzales for Dunc trade to fill in the bullpen so AW could be a starter. Dunc's value is at first base, not the outfield, and now may be the time to explore that move.
go crazy folks..........

by wwbd on Nov 2, 2006 11:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Top Ten (time for fun)
David Letterman offered his "Top Ten Ways To Make The World Series More Exciting." They included:

Instead of fireworks, games kick off with North Korean nuclear test.
Get "Weird Al" Yankovic to write wacky new lyrics to national anthem.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Kenny Rogers wears nothing but pine tar.
Allow top players to use performance-enhancing supplements . . . Oh wait, they already do that,
Once an inning, catcher has to take one in the (groin).
More shots of FOX's hot new young stars.
Give Mel Gibson some tequila and ask what he thinks of Sandy Koufax.
Oh, I don't know -- shorten the game by 2 or 3 hours.
Just for fun, bring an A-Rod to choke.
Between innings, Madonna adopts a ball boy.

by Urban Pawnee on Nov 2, 2006 10:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The guy at...
mlbtraderumors has made this point... but if Edmonds played for another team and approached Jocketty with an offer to play for 1yr/$7mm, wouldn't he snap that up?

Once you forget how good Edmonds used to be, I think it's fairly obvious that 120 games, good to great defense in center, 20 home runs, and a 260-350-450 line is worth $7mm to a club with title aspirations in '07.

What this title run has shown imo is that in the age of expanded playoffs, it's better to have potentially great but ricketty players like Edmonds, Sanders, Walker etc... than it is to have younger, healthier, but mediocre types like Enc and Roberts. You don't need to worry about the long grind of the season so much anymore as long as you can pull it together at the end.

by guayzimi on Nov 2, 2006 10:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds
The options are a $3M buyout or a $10M option...

Edmonds can command $15M over two years in the FA market.  I'd suggest offering him $16-17M for two years.

I know its not sabermetric, but I want J'Ed back in a Cards uni.  

by Zubin on Nov 2, 2006 11:12 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds
Edmonds gave the game ball to Belliard after game one vs. the Padres.  The players point to this when asked what inspired them and helped them believe they could win the championship.

The leadership he gave in the playoffs transformed this team.  We did not have it from him this year.  We complained on this site we were missing the leadership of Walker and Sanders when we were stuck in the 8 game losing streaks this year.  

I think Edmonds has found his voice, we will be a much improved team with him as a vocal leader.  Who will take that role if we let him walk?

by Schnake on Nov 2, 2006 11:14 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you...
Did anyone else see the video (available in the postseason video archives) of Jimmy leading the post-game 7 NLCS Yadi-Yadi! and Soooooooup! chants?
o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Isolate power...
PLUS, If La Russa likes power in the #2 spot...  Roberts career isolated power stands at only .101, a full .100 points lower than Jimmy's lowest figure.  Who says that'll improve in his mid-thirties?
o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 11:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

AND WALK RATE...
Talk about MONEYBALL...

Edmonds and Roberts showed a near-identical OBP this past season.  The difference?  Edmonds batting average may be decreasing, but he showed an ability to draw a walk in nearly 4% more of his plate apearences than Roberts.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 11:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but edmonds will cost
more than twice as much as roberts. is he more than twice as valuable?

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 11:28 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

attn: lboros
1).  I don't think that its a given that Roberts will be [less than] half as expensive as Edmonds.

Citing:  Roberts had a $2.25MM contract gauranteed this year, and earned another $250k in performance bonuses.  And although he is 34 years old, he has yet to test free agencey yet.

Kenny Lofton is listed as Roberts' #2 most comparable player. This past offseason, the 39-year-old Lofton signed a contract that ended up making him $3.8MM with the Dodgers.

So I really don't think that, especially with the White Sox, Giants, and Rockies as other possible suitors, that it is impossible to expect at least a $4MM contract for Roberts, possibly pushing $5MM or even more.  That's already half of Edmonds contract pre-retooling.

Also, any commitment of longer than 2 years seems slightly foolish to me with Colby Rasmus waiting in the wings to take over.

Roberts has a career RC/G of 4.88, 7.66 for Jimmy.  By that measure Jimmy is 1.6 times as productive as Roberts.

To be crude... $5MM for Roberts x 1.6 = $8MM for Jimmy.  All the leadership intangibles, which I think are worth considering, I think make keeping Jimmy make sense.

We may not agree, but I hope you at least respect that I attempted to do my homework.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 1:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

we can agree to disagree
as i said in the post, i think this is a close call. i there's a case to be made for exercising edmonds' option. if you are confident that edmonds can make 500 plate appearances and keep his OPS at or above .850, he's a reasonable buy at $10 million. i think that's a risky bet, but that is just me.

i do have to differ with some of your analysis. for example, i don't think the 1.6 multiplier applies. over the course of their careers, maybe so. but roberts is at his career peak; edmonds is well below his. if we take 2005-06 together, edmonds created 7.0 per 27 outs; roberts created 5.6. if we take 2006 alone, roberts outperformed edmonds 5.9 rc/27 to 5.7.

that doesn't mean (repeating what i said above) that i think roberts is better than edmonds. but i think he's 80 percent as good --- and with less downside risk.

re the market for roberts, we'll just have to see. i would be very surprised if his 2007 salary exceeds $4m; numerous outfielders last season (p wilson, encarnacion, rondell white, j jones) with better resumes signed for less money. if your assumptions are correct and the market goes significantly north of $4m, then you're right --- roberts wouldn't be such a bargain.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

juan
signed for $15m over three last year, and I'd be surprised if there are a lot of GMs out there who'd rather have him after 2005 than scrappy mcfastguy dave roberts after he stole forty bases and hit .300. I'm guessing roberts gets something approaching $5 million for 2007, judging by how fast the rumors about likely landing spots have started to fly.

I see where you're going with it, but I don't think the $3.5 million effective difference--especially when it's not even clear it'll be that much--is worth the factors in favor of Edmonds, both in terms of ability and subjective elder-statesmen-ness. (Last year, after all, Jock went out with $3.5 million and came back with Junior Spivey, Sid Ponson, and Ricardo Rincon.) I think Adam Kennedy would be a great fit in St. Louis, but if DeWitt won't go $1-2m over the cost of Roberts/Kennedy to pick up the option on his fan-favorite borderline HOF centerfielder I think we have bigger problems. Honestly, for a big team with a new stadium and playoff revenue, it's too bad that we're looking at Roberts OR Edmonds and not Roberts OR Taguchi/Wilson.

by DanUpBaby on Nov 2, 2006 2:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

are u sure?
i know wilson was a one year 4.5m with that crazy option, jenc was 3/15m, as was jones, only rondell made less at 3.25m

granted, i know juan only got 3.5m in 06, but it was still 3/15, and the only way it isnt is if they pay someone to take him

by bigcardsfan5 on Nov 2, 2006 2:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

roberts is 34
and i think that will put a ceiling on his salary. i don't think he gets 3/$15m when he'll be 37 years old in the last year of that deal.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 3:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

career peak
Point taken on the runs created.  I was getting a little greedy.  Although I still have Jimmy down for 6.16 RC/G in the 2006 regular season and 6.93 in the playoffs (per fangraphs).

I've got to respectfully disagree on the career peak analysis.

1). I think that Edmonds' numbers (in terms of plate appearences and averages) are skewed low for 2006 because of the post-concussion ordeal.  To me this isn't a symptom of age, but rather of one bad fall in US Cellular.

2). I don't think its fair to say Dave is at his career peak.  Rather than a peak I view at as a lucky year.  Roberts posted a .330 BABIP this year.  I consider this to be unusually high for a guy that averaged .289 in this category over the previous 3 seasons.  I think that this number will return to a more (career) normal number next season, and his BA will regress accordingly.  As his OBP is largely batting average driven, I see this number coming down as well.

Basically I think Roberts put up (slightly) better numbers this year than he should've.  Better numbers in a contract year sometimes result in unfairly high paychecks.

Sorry, I'm not trying to be difficult.  Just trying to keep myslef sharp.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 3:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sorry...
I forgot to conclude that $5MM contract for Roberts comes along with the $3MM buyout of Edmonds, making it effectively an $8MM one-year deal, or $13MM over a 2-year span.

In my mind a $16MM 2-year restructuring for Edmonds (exempt from buyout) is worth the extra money.

And In addition to all of this, even if the value of Roberts and Edmonds is a push, where is the extra offense going to come from with this current free agent field?  I just don't see where.  Maybe Delluchi(sp) or Craig Wilson.  I didn't look up any of their numbers, just brainstorming.

I love this blog and the intelligent conversations it inspires.  Viva El Bridos.

Any thoughts from anyone?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 1:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

JEd to Coach?
one common thread that goes through much of our deliberations on this is the fact that while Jim's fielding is still among the best, his offense has declined more and more and will no doubt continue to next season.
However, all of us agree that Jim's main strengths are in his seniority and ability to be a true leader.
So why not start grooming him to be a coach? Assuming TLR is in for two years or so (not much more), Jose moves up and JEd takes Jose's place.

by burquebird on Nov 2, 2006 11:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'd love that idea
It's a way to keep some of your best guys to teach the game.

They wanted Larry Walker to help out in ST.  I can't remember if he did or not.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Win it for JB and DK57

by cardsfan84 on Nov 2, 2006 12:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Delucci was mentioned earlier
If you can get Delucci for $3M or even $4M, I think that's good value.  Beats Preston Wilson's whiff-a-thon.  

by raisin on Nov 2, 2006 11:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Delucci
has never made more than a million dollars in a season.  He'll come cheaper than 3MM.

Find an AL team that values Chris Duncan's cheap bat, then...

--package another player and get a SP or 2B
--sign Delucci, The Cat, or Gonzo for LF

 

youneverknow

by meat on Nov 2, 2006 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Roberts? Why not Chavez?
If you're going to talk about speedy, singles-slapping outfielders, why not Endy Chavez over Dave Roberts?

Endy Chavez
AVG .306 | HR 4 | RBI 42  | OBP .348 | SLG .431
| SB  12 | 2B 22| 3B 5

Dave Roberts
AVG .293 | HR 2 | RBI 44  | OBP .360 | SLG .393
| SB  49 | 2B 18| 3B 13

Chavez is six years younger, and may have just a touch more pop.  His defense, well, Game 7 of the NLCS says it all.

Regarding projections, on the Rolen projections, here's the best one I found:

* * * * * * * *
"Rolen a fatty

BA:  .295
OBP: .385
SLG: .555
HR:    25
RBI:  105
R:     95

"The good Lord was good to me. He gave me a strong body, a good right arm, and a weak mind." -Dizzy Dean
by vince eating tarp on Thu Feb 02, 2006 at 02:10:32 PM EST"
* * * * * * * * * *

Rolen's real numbers were:
AVG .296 | HR 22 | RBI 95  | OBP .369 | SLG .518

My compliments to Vince Eating Tarp.  Pretty good prognostication!

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Nov 2, 2006 11:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

is endy
a free agent?

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently
and made $500k in 2006

by sdrone on Nov 2, 2006 3:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Chavez Free Agent
Chavez signed a one year deal with the Mets during the off-season before this past season.
So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Nov 2, 2006 3:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks!
Pulled that one straight from the hindquarters.  The spooky thing is that would have been a lot closer had it not been for his power outage late in the season.  Should have accounted for the tired shoulder in September from the surgery and all the rehab and such.  Oh well, I'll do better next year! ;)
"The good Lord was good to me. He gave me a strong body, a good right arm, and a weak mind." -Dizzy Dean

by vince eating tarp on Nov 2, 2006 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about Duncan?
No one has really discussed Duncan in this equation. If we were to part ways with Edmonds, could Duncan be a solution for the drop in power/RBIs? Duncan filled in often while Jimmy was out of the lineup in the second half (with Enc or So in CF). And I think we can agree that his production at least offset the loss of Edmonds bat.

Personally, I'm in favor of trading Duncan while his value is high to an AL club and net a veteran everyday OF who CAN field and provide steady production (~.820 OPS). Of course, I'm also in favor of trading Encarnacion for something of greater value, and I just don't see that happening.

by PhatAlbert on Nov 2, 2006 11:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

sentimentality vs. pragmatism
i love jimmy.  his defense is sublime.  his skills and pt are deteriorating.  

a lot of what i'm reading here is that we should keep him because of what he's done for the team, because of our memories of his great deeds while wearing the birds on the bat, because of the leadership he demonstrated in the postseason a la game balls.  i don't disagree.

the other side of what i'm reading is, if we can get greater value (two for one salary, younger or healthier players), it would be worth pulling the trigger.  saying "thanks and good luck."

my biggest concern with buying him out and using that to get roberts + one of many is that management screws it up.  given that the team on the field just delivered a world championship, i'm hesitant to be as critical of management as i was for the bulk of the year, but i'm not convinced we wouldn't end up with no jimmy and an incredibly frightening outfield of dunc, jenc and shumac...

by sdesserman on Nov 2, 2006 12:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Posted this on yesterday's thread with no response
Early 60's, Cards vs Dodgers at LA Coliseum.

It says it is from 1962, but I can't find a boxscore that matches up with it.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7331434805640401574&q=cardinals

You have to pay to get the whole hour of the video.  Not sure what is missing.  They show you most of the entire first inning, so I wonder what innings/half innings are missing from the rest.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 2, 2006 12:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Saturday, July 25th, 1959
I looked at the starting pitchers (Roger Craig v Larry Jackson), the lineups (STL - Blasingame, Cunningham, White, Boyer; LAD - Gilliam, Neal), the location, and the fact that most televised games were done on Saturday. Then I flipped through Retrosheet's game log to find the right game.

Blasingame played for the Cardinals through 1959 and the Dodgers moved to LA prior to the 1958 season, so that narrowed the search to two seasons.

I'll have more on this later.

Oh, the burden of stupid people.

by Solanus on Nov 2, 2006 12:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I just came back to say I found it as well
....the game took 2:11 minutes, so I wonder what parts are cut out.  Still a nice treat to stumble upon.
Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 2, 2006 12:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds and more.....
Bring Edmonds back at the 10 mil price. Because there isn't anyone better out there for FA's.... Next year Hunter is a FA. Wells if he doesn't sign an extension or get traded.  Then acquire a young outfielder that has great potential. I keep saying Carl Crawford. The D-rays want starting pitching...give them Reyes, Thompson, and a prospect. That solves the outfield leave Enc and Schumaker to play RF. Crawford splits LF and Cf. Edmonds plays CF. There is your 4 outfielders. Then flip Duncan for relief pitching.....if we can get Gonzalez then go for it! That allows Wainwright to move into the rotation. Gonzalez to close til or if Izzy comes back. And then of course TLR has options. Sign Loretta or Kennedy to play second.

Eckstein-3.5mil
Crawford-5.75 mil
Pujols- 16 mil
Rolen - 14 mil
Edmonds- 10 mil
Molina - 800k
Encarnacion/Schumaker- 5 mil/400k
kennedy/loretta- 3-4 mil
pither.

- Rotation - Carpenter-8 mil
Wainwright-800k....sign...Randy Wolf..7-8mil,Woody Williams..4-5mil, and sign either....Matsuzaka or Zito. And I do beleive that the budget would add up to right around what the Cards are looking for.

by Cylix3341 on Nov 2, 2006 12:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Are you serious?
Woody Williams?  I doubt he'll have 10 victories next year.   Zito, I can live with  - if we can afford him.   Matsuzaka will require a commitment of, what, $80m or so?  $30m to win the posting war and at least $12m/year?

by sdrone on Nov 2, 2006 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

except you forgot
the bullpen, which includes two very big salaries: isringhausen at $8.75m, and looper at $5m.

so all of the signings you listed above would leave the cardinals well above their $90m cap.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 1:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well, then....
 Your right.The only case I could make is that Edmonds is on a one year deal.As well,Izzy will be up after this season.And I'm still a fan of moving Juan and Looper.  And if we could just have a payroll bump this year then next it would be back to around 95 mil. See this is a big year for the Cardinals. We need potentially 2-3 SP's and an outfielder and a second baseman. Starting pithcer are at a premium now and will cost more and with the economics of B-Ball....salaries are trending upward. DeWitt has also stated that if the right players are there they will spend the money. That was my whole Matsuzaka theory.

by Cylix3341 on Nov 2, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

payroll
Doesn't it seem likely that payroll goes closer to $100 mil this year?

I mean, I know that was assumed last year, but the new stadium revenue is actually here now, and the WS revenue should be pretty nice too.

Granted, that's probably not the way DeWitt thinks about it, but still....if nothing else, wouldn't he consider doing it so that Ballpark Village gets that much bigger a push?

Probably just wishful thinking.....

by Fitz on Nov 2, 2006 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It validates their philosophy
If anything, the World Series win validates the ownership philosophy that paying more than $90M for a team is pointless.

At this point I'd have to agree.  Sure we COULD spend more than $90M this year but for what purpose? The season is already probably going to sell pretty well because of the WS this year and if they were to win the WS again next year do you think it would get nearly the attention/revenue that it did this year?

If anything, I think ownership would be tempted to scrimp a little bit in payroll and bask in the free year of goodwill they'll get because of the WS win and then once there's a monetary benefit to higher performance they'd consider spending a little more.

by dontEATnachos on Nov 2, 2006 1:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's fun to hate the owners
and I'm not always a fan myself, but just as they're not going to blow all of the new income and raise payroll to $120 mil, they're also not going to sit at $90 mil for five years. The best way to make money is to stay competitive. We might not Sign Lee, Soriano and that Japanese guy with the wacky gyro-copter ball, but I don't see the owners standing still just to say to the nation "I told you so."

by effin fisk on Nov 2, 2006 4:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not hating the owners
I just don't see that much financial incentive for them to increase the payroll this season unless they thing that by making the playoffs again that they'd make that money back.

That was really my point, they've gotten such a boost from the WS money (on merch, tickets, etc.) that they can stand kind of pat this year and the halo-effect will keep Busch crowded.

The following year though, they'd probably start seeing a dropoff.

by dontEATnachos on Nov 2, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lets face it
I see few options where the Cardinals don't need to sign 2 outfielders this offseason. Even if you belive Edmonds will play 162 game, do you belive that Juan E will be a reliable playoff performer, do you belive that Duncan will hit the cover off the ball? Do you belive that the current crop of bench outfielders will be adequit players when called on to play 120 games?

I don't belive any of those things. And thats why the Cards will need to make some outfield signings. Unless the team is willing to pay up for a Soriano or Lee, the only options left are 120 veterans and part time players. So the key is to come up with the best possible combination. Even with a Soriano or Lee in the fold, the club should be worried about the performance of Juan E in the playoffs and about Duncan as the season went along.

As Larry talked about before, the Cards can stand a mediocre offense if it can get good pitching. Therefore, go cheap, figure out the best combo of 4 outfielders for a decent price that allows the team to sign a Zito and move from there. Roberts should be a huge part of any such discussions because he would fit the #2 hole for this team.

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 1:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The Long Haul
I respect your opinion on Edmonds Lboros but frankly think you are wrong.  Your statistical analysis is on point and the likelihood that Edmonds is "worth" $10M/yr is not high (although in my eyes he isn't far from worth $10M/yr given salary escalation this year and the distinct likelihood that he would go to a competitor like the Cubs or the Astros).  

To step right on to my high horse though, I think what is often overlooked in intangibles.  Jim Edmonds has in his 7 seasons with the Cardinals earned certain rights/priviledges.  One, IMHO, is to be overpaid in his older years, just like Ozzie.  We overpaid Ozzie towards then end b/c we knew that with the Cards Ozzie offered us intangibles, including but not limited to putting butts in the seats and keeping eyes on the boob tube.  

I would submit that Jim is in a "similar" category (again not arguing he is as belloved as Ozzie only that 7 years counts for something to Cards fans).  

To reference some of Jim's examples - Mark G, Matty Mo, Mike Matheny, W. Williams, - none of those guys had the service time of Jim and they all were either overpaid or more risky deals in my opinion.  

Jim's deal could be considered slightly overpaid and if I were the Cards I would MAKE PUBLIC an offer of 2 years $17M with at option for a third at $7M and a $2M buyout.  

Then, if this is posturing from Edmonds we could see if he is in fact going to take the money and run somewhere else despite a Market offer.  My two cents.  

by Lawless on Nov 2, 2006 1:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Matty Mo
played 8 seasons in St. Louis, and was hurt for a 9th.  he had the service time....

by Irishman on Nov 2, 2006 1:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus...
he was a home-grown product, so it's not like he was an "outsider".

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
But imho Matty Mo was grossly overpaid at 3Y 27M as panned out last year.  There are an overwhelming amount of comps for half the money.  At those prices I am less sentimental.  If a guy is near market - then - I push the intangbiles card...

by Lawless on Nov 2, 2006 6:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Two intersting notes on CNNSI
The Rockies are convinced of Byung-Hyun Kim's durability, but they want assurances of his creativity before picking up his club option at today's deadline. Agents for Darin Erstad, Gary Matthews and Dave Roberts have been contacted as the Rockies attempt to establish contract parameters.
-- Denver Post

Right-handed pitcher Josh Fogg's future with the Rockies is on hold. Fogg is eligible for arbitration. It isn't likely the Rockies would go to arbitration with him, but they have until Dec. 12 to tender Fogg a contract, which gives general manager Dan O'Dowd nearly six weeks to try to work out a deal.
-- Rocky Mountain News

I don't know about the rest of you, but Josh Fogg as a back of the rotation starter wouldn't be a horrible Duncan project and the Rockies are clearly looking for center fielders. Maybe we have a taker for Juan E. on our hands?

by JMedwick on Nov 2, 2006 1:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

From Walt by way of the P-D:
"Our priority is to rebuild our rotation. We want to find the best quality starting pitcher and the best quality hitter. And I'm not sure who those players are right now."

Any pursuit will come after the Cardinals address center fielder Jim Edmonds' $10 million option for next season. The club has until Nov. 15 to assume the option, exercise a $3 million buyout or negotiate an extension.

Jocketty reiterated Tuesday the club's desire to bring back Edmonds for an eighth season. What he left unsaid was an organizational desire to do so for less than $10 million next season.

"We want him back with us next season," Jocketty said. "It's something I told Jim last week. I would expect to see what can be done relatively soon."

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 2:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

sold......
lol......they can have juan for Fogg.

by Cylix3341 on Nov 2, 2006 2:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Matthews Jr
He's 32 and will probably command around the $6-7 mil range. That would equal Edmond's salary, but you would get a younger version with less pop overall. He certainly could handle CF defensively.

by cmat on Nov 2, 2006 2:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

and he
would be hurt less often. He also offers some speed and hitting in front of Pujols may keep that average up. Just a thought...

by cmat on Nov 2, 2006 2:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

manager of the year?
how does TLR, who managed a quite underachieving Cardinals team to a World Series where they spanked the Tigers, not even finish top 3 in the voting?

by lopey986 on Nov 2, 2006 2:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I presume
Based on yesterday's post that these awards were voted on the last day of the season.  Therefore,
TLR managed an 83 win team that need a win from the Braves on the last day of the season to limp into the playoffs.

I'm thinking the TLR love was not that great on the last day of the season.

His playoff work was outstanding, but not considered for this award.

by OCCardsFan on Nov 2, 2006 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Votes for all awards
are sent in before the post-season.

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 3:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why not
Just pick up Edmond's option as is, instead of working a two-year deal? You give Duncan a full year to see if he can mash, and assume similar production from Enc and Edmonds. That gives you the power in the middle of the line-up, and a HR threat 2-6. First off, if Edmonds is as injured next year as he is this, I would think he would want to retire anyway (and retire a redbird). If he can stay relatively healthy, we'll get a relative bargain. And, you would hope that Rolen will improve somewhat and post a .900plus OPS, and combined with Duncan getting a full year, I think the offense would be in good shape.

by jimstllax on Nov 2, 2006 2:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm with you Jim
If you are concerned about his health, why go on the hook for 2 years?  He isn't going to get a bigger contract after 2007 anyway, unless he has a monster season.  In that case, the extra $7 million would have been well spent.  Then in 2007, we are rid of Edmonds and Izzy's large contracts.  

by lefty fan on Nov 2, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

2007 contracts
I think we are all going to be freaked out by some of the free-agent contracts this off-season (even more than normal). IMHO, the likes of Dave Roberts will be getting at least $5 million next season.  With more "buyers" given the relative health of the baseball economy, new contracts are going to be outrageous.  Pitching will lead the way as usual.  The Cardinals approach the past couple of years was to wait and see how the market shapes up.  I think Walt will be sorting through the bargain bin again this winter.  Keep Edmonds for the extra $7 mil, re-sign the cheaper 2 of Suppan/Weaver/Mulder, keep Wainwright in the pen, and then apply the duct tape where needed (starting pitcher, 2nd base, bench).  If we are lucky, maybe Walt can swing a trade for an impact bat.

by lefty fan on Nov 2, 2006 2:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

"swing a trade for an impact bat"
where does this sound familiar? Oh yes. It's what didn't happen this season.

by effin fisk on Nov 2, 2006 4:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds

How can you say no to this face.

by gdowdy3 on Nov 2, 2006 3:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tattoo
I really like the DK57 tat as well. Bring the man back.

by lopey986 on Nov 2, 2006 3:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What does he do
write it in upside down?  Have someone else write it?   Who is supposed to read it at that angle?  Heh.

by sdrone on Nov 2, 2006 3:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's a tattoo.
It's not just written on there, it's inked in his skin.
Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Nov 2, 2006 10:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i thought
the exact same thing when i saw that picture...that tat displays his allegiance to this organization, bring him back.

by MarcGldstn on Nov 2, 2006 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just a beautiful...
...beautiful man.  I feel a man crush coming on.  Doesn't mean I don't think we shouldn't exercise his option, trade him, and just eat 3 mil (amount of his buyout) in salary to get a better outfield prospect.

by BigJawnMize on Nov 2, 2006 3:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I confessed last week
to my volleyball team that I have have a man crush for Jim Edmonds.  hahah.   Of course, maybe one person on the team knew who he was, and she just assumed he was a Cardinal since they were in the SEries and I was wearing my VEB t shirt.

by sdrone on Nov 2, 2006 3:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

your in luck then
i've heard Edmonds door swings both ways.

by Cylix3341 on Nov 2, 2006 5:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

With regards to Chris Duncan
What do you think his trade value is? Will it ever be higher? Is he worth hanging onto to see if what he did is or isn't a fluke? If we do hang on to him, can you live with another season of his outfield hijinx?

by airhad on Nov 2, 2006 3:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Baby Dunc is tricky for me
While it'd be great to get an elite level guy like Mike Gonzalez (yes, no mistake, elite level) I can't help but peer at Ryan Howard's stats and compare to Duncan's rookie year and wonder.  Almost identical:

Howard: .288 .356 .567 .923
Duncan: .293 .363 .589 .952

Vs Right:

Howard: .323 .396 .645 1.041
Duncan: .318 .390 .644 1.034

vs Left:

Howard: .148 .175 .246 .421
Duncan: .170 .220 .319 .539

Both tall 1st baseman getting their rookie year at age 25.  Hmmmmmmmm

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Nov 2, 2006 6:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oops, meant to post this at the end
many of you have spoken of the "large financial windfall" a championship affords. Does anyone think that Jocketty is really approaching our budget as a zero-sum game?

Does paying Edmonds $7mm really = Adam Kennedy over Ray Durham or something equally ridiculous? Are you guys really looking at it this way?

If Edmonds and Durham are considered by Jocketty to be helpful to this club next year, he will not go about attaining their services based on mutual exclusivity.

Sure, this is within reason, but I don't expect us to not sign Edmonds based on a need for a $93mm dollar payroll over a $95mm payroll.

Edmonds services will not be replaced for less than $5mm, period. Pay him seven, then, onward and upward.

I understand getting better value for your dollar, but some people are treating this issue with ridiculous exclusivity.

by plh903 on Nov 2, 2006 3:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it might seem ridiculous to you
but it's how the game is played today. it's how jocketty plays it; it's how all the good organizations play it.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you don't say no to the face
you say no to .257/.350/.471 for $7 million. I love JEd, too, but Walt can't be emotional about this. As he said, he's looking for the best ballplayers, not the most beloved. I can feel you jumping all over me already--"intangibles" "clubhouse guy" "leadership"--and with good cause. But Walt is a numbers guy. If he can use the $7 mil to make the Cards better than they would be by spending it on JEd, then he's gone. Plain and simple. So let's stay above the Jimmy Hardball love-fest.

My two cents: Build the team for the long-haul. Rassmus is in the wings, so no more middle-of-the-road, middle-priced, middle-length contracts like JEnc. Resign Jimmy or bring in a cheaper vet to bridge the gap to Colby, but don't go out and sign another 3yr/$15mil guy.

by ninerings on Nov 2, 2006 3:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's why it makes sense...
To re-sign Edmonds. A one-year option at $10m total value is after all only one year. That fact alone mitigates much of the risk. And with all the excess cash that teams are going to eagerly spend in the FA market, it's scary to think what could happen. Hell, last year we paid Enc'ion a pretty big contract (3/$15m) - what is a player like that worth this year?! Surely relative to that, Edmonds at 1/$10m is still fiscally responsible while giving Colby Rasmus a chance to prove himself at HiA or AA next year.

by airhad on Nov 2, 2006 4:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Would there be any way...
To offer Edmonds an incentive contract on games played?  I'd pay a healthy Edmonds 10M a year easy, but I just highly doubt we'll ever see a healthy Edmonds again for a full season.

by redbird2006in on Nov 2, 2006 3:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

carl crawford
cant we trade reyes, and hancock or thompson and a prospect to tampa? carl would be great hitting it the 2 hole in front of king albert.  

by adam21 on Nov 2, 2006 4:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

All this contract talk
Keeps making me think of something I saw the other day.  The astros exercised an $ 8 MILLION dollar buyout on Bagwell.  So essentially they paid 25 million bucks for this guy not to play for two years.  Wow.  

I know the two are not comparable, but I would certainly rather pay Edmonds $10 million to play than $3 million not to play.

I don't think is an easy choice, but I think I prefer the one year $10 million situation as opposed to two years at $15 million.  Just take it one year at a time.

by OCCardsFan on Nov 2, 2006 4:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
The Bagwell situation is rucking fidiculous.
Muck the Fets

by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Nov 2, 2006 6:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

colby rasmus
how much longer until colby rasmus gets to the bigs?  i'm, of course, assuming that he'll get here?

is the real deal?  or is this a shot in the dark, like most minor leaguers?

by busch league on Nov 2, 2006 4:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He looks good?
I've heard estimates of a 2008 arrival.  He made it to high-A ball last year and did OK.  He'll likely start at AA next year.  

Starting the year at Quad Cities (low-a) he hit .310 and got on base at a .373 clip (.884 OPS).

He moved up to Palm Beach and struggled slightly, hitting only .254 but still getting on base 35% of the time.

He seems to have a good eye for the walk, stole 28 bases between the 2 leagues, and hit 16 HR's.  I think its too soon to label him a can't-miss prospect, but things look good for him, IMO.

I've heard him labled a B+ prospect, with a projected Steve Finley-esque celing.  I'd take that.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 4:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ha, very similar
To my post below. And generally agreement. I think this adds fuel to the re-sign Edmonds campaign, however. Unless we want to start some unfounded rumors to make a run at Vernon Wells...

by airhad on Nov 2, 2006 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

its funny...
I tried to mention earlier that Rasmus is another reason to keep J-Ed on for 2 more years, but I forgot to mention that a Vernon Wells acquisition is the only way I could see this changing.  Nice ideas.  Nice post.  I think yours was a little more comprehensive than mine.
o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 2, 2006 8:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

About Colby Rasmus
As a 19 y/o playing his first full season he cemented his prospect status. While at A-ball with Quad Cities he his .310/.373/.512 in 303 ABs. He was also 17 of 22 in SB attempts. Those are strong numbers. He was promoted to Palm Beach. In July during his first taste he hit only .214/.302/.379 but started putting things together in Sept. He reputedly has plus range in CF with an average arm. At this point scouts compare his upside to maybe Mark Kotsay. At this rate however, he probably isn't in the big leagues until 2009/2010 full time.

by airhad on Nov 2, 2006 4:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OT... no more Brantley on BBTN
Good riddance. He's been hired as the Reds new color guy. I feel bad for George Grande.

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 4:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

ok,
then I feel sorry for Marty Brennaman...

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 6:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Damn
If that doesn't choke ya up, you're made of stone. Thanks for the link.

by rockin redbird on Nov 2, 2006 5:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A wonderful tribute
Thank you for sharing it.
I'm going to my happy place now.

by RosevilleRedbird on Nov 2, 2006 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ummmmm...
....wow.  

sigh.

good stuff.

by busch league on Nov 2, 2006 5:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

about wins above replacement
I'm not opposed to going w/ Roberts over Edmonds but I wonder about the stat "wins above replacement".  Does it consider defense or is it exclusively an offensive statistic.  Jimmy is slowing down but Roberts has a weak arm and I'm not sure that the difference between Edmonds and Roberts isn't greater than the difference in their "wins above replacement".  It may make sense to get Roberts AND Loretta (I prefer him to Kennedy) for what it would cost to sign Edmonds but we must consider defense as well, especially if Duncan's going to be playing 120 games in our OF.

The other thing I haven't heard people deal w/ in evaluating our offseason is the likelihood that we need to add a closer, or a very good reliever who can close.  Wainwright, despite the great postseason, belongs in the rotation and, with Izzy's injury and the likelihood that he'll never be very good again, means that we'll need to allocate at least $4 mill or so toward a closer.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2006 5:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it includes defense
wins above replacement has both offensive and defensive components.

by lboros on Nov 2, 2006 7:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

gold gloves
al gold gloves announced.  winners...

rogers, i-rod, texeria, grudzy, jeter, chavez, wells, hunter and ichiro.  

ironic that a tigers pitcher won the gold glove, huh?

nl announced tomorrow.  how many will the cards bring home????  i'll put the over/under and 1.5.  

personally, i'll take the over.  i like jed, albert and yadi.

 

by busch league on Nov 2, 2006 5:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'll take the over
but not Edmonds.  I'll take Rolen, Pujols, and Yadi.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i wish rolen would win it,
but i just don't see it.  15 errors this year.  a bit too many.  

here's to hoping i'm wrong though.  would love to see scotty bring it home.

by busch league on Nov 2, 2006 5:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Did you know?
Rolen tied for the highest fielding % in the league.  He had the 2nd most assists in the league and the 2nd highest zone rating.  Plus, he's got the reputation to bring it home.  The only others you could consider realistically would be Zimmerman (a rookie) or David Wright (19 errors, 7th in fielding %).  I'd be stunned if he didn't win it.

by chuckb on Nov 2, 2006 5:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my guess
Rolen, Albert, Yadi... but only 2 of those 3.  just not sure which 2.  Edmonds just didn't play enough.

by madding on Nov 2, 2006 9:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If Molina
gets one, it'll be one of the few times a player won the award based solely on his defense and not his offense(coughMikeSchmidtcough).

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 11:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A Few Thoughts
I know we are all looking ahead now to the many offseason questions that face this team we all love.  And as far as that goes, I want to just say that I, too, have a mancrush on Jimmy Edmonds and I REALLY hope we find a way to keep him.

But, my point for this post is as follows:
We just won the WORLD SERIES!!!!
WE ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS!!!!!
It hasn't even been a week yet and already people are getting angry at each other over our feelings of possible offseason moves.  I think we all need to take a step back, a deep breathe, and say one thing out loud:

WORLD CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!

by Matty I on Nov 2, 2006 6:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

late to the party
dang job. lb i'm with you on dave robert, i've been noodling with the same idea myself. he's got pretty good plate discipline, steals bases and rarely gets caught and he's a good fielder.

edmonds power has been down, he can't seem to stay healthy and i fear he may be headed down the bernie williams post 35 career path. and now he has to be platooned.

don't get me wrong, i love jimmy ballgame, huge fan of his, but roberts and kennedy, plus a big bat like El Caballo, etc wouldn't be a bad way to plug the holes.

"Go Crazy, Folks! Go Crazy!"

by erik on Nov 2, 2006 6:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No, no
It's Molina, Pujols and Eckstein with the gilded mitts.

by Red in Chicago on Nov 2, 2006 7:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What's Duncan get?
Swiss Cheese Glove?

Lead?

It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.

by Glenn Brummer stole home on Nov 2, 2006 7:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The juan E
award..its a pair of golden ballet slippers for tiptoeing to balls..course duncan just muffs it all together
Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Nov 2, 2006 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Duncan got his early
and wore it on the field.
Muck the Fets

by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Nov 2, 2006 7:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Loretta
Can anybody tell me who the Cards' main competition looks to be in signing this guy?  Will it be tough, given what we learned last offseason about position-by-position caps on Jocketty's spending?

by jfs on Nov 2, 2006 8:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Frank Catalanotto
Anybody else think Frank Catalanotto would be a great fit for our club? Hes a left handed bat and he knows how to get on base. Perfect #2 hitter. What makes him so interesting to me is that he has played 2nd base before. I don't know how good his defense was there, so if anyone could help me out that would be cool. Only bad thing I can think of is he doesn't hit lefty's well and that was a big problem for us last year....

Id rather have Catalanotto playing 2nd than Kennendy.

by El Hombre on Nov 2, 2006 8:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The name alone would make him a fan favorite
popular on the Hill
It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.

by Glenn Brummer stole home on Nov 2, 2006 8:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

coco crisp
couldnt we get coco to play lf and split cf with edmonds.  it seems boston was disapointed in him and is available.

by adam21 on Nov 2, 2006 8:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Red Sox
they were also dissapointed by Edgar Renteria, but we liked him and the Braves seem to like him

by Fitz on Nov 2, 2006 9:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just pick up the stupid option already
I don't think 1 more year at 10 million is going to break the bank.  it's not like they'd be stuck with him for the long term if he underperforms or continues to decline.

I know, I'm not thinking with "good baseball sense" in that I hope more than anything that he retires a Cardinal (and not soon) even if he's so banged up that they have to have someone drive him out to CF in a golf cart every inning.  I hate to think this, but I might not care as much about the Cardinals next year if he's not in one of their uniforms.

anyway, there are much better reasons to keep him around that other people have given above.  I'd just hate to see him replaced by some no-range having, slap hitter with a noodle arm.  gone would be the fuzzy feeling of security that we lost, and then gained back after he returned from his injury this season.  that feeling that if the ball is hit anywhere near CF, it's going to be gloved.

by madding on Nov 2, 2006 10:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

They have
until the 15th. No need to hurry...

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 11:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah
I just want them to end all the endless speculation and player-changing scenarios.

by madding on Nov 3, 2006 12:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why is everyone calling Edmonds...
a $10 million player?  The buyout's $3 million, so he's essentially a $7 million player.

We're not going to find equivalent defense in CF for that price.  Can we find a upgraded bat at that price?  Probably, but will that upgraded bat produce more runs than losing his defense will cost us?

I think it's a no-brainer to bring him back, especially since Rasmus is only about a year away.

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Nov 2, 2006 10:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't touch
Gagne with the Cubs payroll...

by cardsrul on Nov 2, 2006 11:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

From your mouth...
to God's ears.

C'mon, Piniella, you can fix him.

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Nov 3, 2006 12:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Byung Kyu Lee
i heard he just filed for FA. anyone ever heard of him?

by tnek5 on Nov 2, 2006 11:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tore the cover off the ball...
in the WBC.  Has a Korean batting title.  Probably league-average defense in CF.

Downside: he's 32.

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Nov 3, 2006 12:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, no...
he didn't hit for crap.  Had him confused with Seung-Yeop Lee.

Someone will take a flyer on him (Dodgers make the most sense.)

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Nov 3, 2006 1:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

off-season surgery
watching a replay of some of Friday night's highlights.  what a great ride October was.
i believe i read somewhere that jed was going to have the same surgery he had on one arm/shoulder back in 2004 on the other arm/shoulder this off-season.  i view that as a positive.  i know he's getting older and has the concussion issue but i believe it's worth $7MM to give him a chance to play another year here.  i also believe we do owe him that for the reasons mentioned above but i wouldn't sign up for a 2 or 3 year deal.
"You can't worry if it's cold; you can't worry if it's hot; you only worry if you get sick. Because then if you don't get well, you die." Joaquin Andujar

by Red State Redbird on Nov 2, 2006 11:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Edmonds problem at the plate
this season was that the more he played later in the year, the less he could turn on the fastball for power.  

If that surgery can return his ability to turn on the ball, then hitting 25-30 HRs again isn't out of the question, especially since most of his power comes from his upper body with his wide stance.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 2, 2006 11:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's an odd situation
he had that horrible impact with the wall in June IIRC which caused the concussion most likely and probably banged up the shoulder too.  Then in July he goes on that SICK tear of like 9-10 HRs in a month.  Then he kinda lulls again for the last two months.  I really can't place my finger on what went on that allowed him to destroy the ball for a month but apparently it was only temporary.
Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 3, 2006 12:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's the thing about concussions
The after-effects are a mystery, even  to many medical professionals and different people react in different ways. That's why it pissed me off when people were accusing JEd of dogging it after he started getting dizzy. Unless you(the generic you) are that person, you have absolutely no  idea what is going on.

And...if you want a perfect example of the longterm effects of concussions, I offer up ESPN's own Merrill Hoge.

by cardsrul on Nov 3, 2006 9:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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