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somebody else's meche

gil meche's agent says gil meche is a hot commodity --- half the teams have made contact, blah blah blah. @#$##$ agent-generated buzz. . . . but we do hear from other sources that the cardinals might be interested in this guy. meche is cut from the carpenter mold: big boy, throws hard, nasty stuff. like carp, he was drafted high (22d overall), reached the big leagues young (20) with ace-like potential, struggled, and got hurt --- blown shoulder. that injury required two surgeries to fix and kept meche sidelined for a year and a half; he has stayed healthy since his return four years ago.

if the shoulder is fixed, the pitcher still is not; here the similarity to carpenter ends, and the likeness to jason marquis begins. after nearly 150 big-league starts, meche still apparently lacks a plan for getting hitters out --- either that, or he's unable to execute one. jeff sullivan at the great mariner blog Lookout Landing recently posted an excellent review of meche's 2006 season; excerpts:

Gil's probably always going to be reputed as possessing terrific stuff, and because of that people will consider him more likely to break out than any number of other pitchers. And while there is some truth to that, his arsenal isn't anywhere close to being as great as so many claim it is. We've all seen him pitch enough to know that he can miss a few bats when he's going well, but what about the rest? You'd think that "great stuff" would show up in the numbers somewhere, but it doesn't, not in K% (which hasn't been consistently good), and certainly not in HR/FB% or LD%. His repertoire is fine, and easily good enough for the Majors, but it's not so good that he can coast by on stuff alone. He needs to have both control of his pitches and a solid approach to succeed, and so far in his career he's shown neither on a consistent basis. . . . .

He finished the season even worse than he started it, and fans who had been swayed by his run of good pitching in the middle of the summer swore off ever believing in Gil again. He concluded the year appropriately enough, walking five batters in Oakland's AAA lineup and needing 125 pitches to get through six innings. Classic Gil. The second he got pulled, Mariner fans everywhere breathed a deep sigh of relief, armed with the knowledge that they'd almost certainly never have to watch Gil trot his sorry ass out to the mound in a Seattle uniform ever again. After more than a decade of underachieving, the Gil Meche Era was finally over.

interestingly enough, the "run of good pitching" jeff refers to came mainly against nl teams --- three consecutive starts in june vs the giants, padres, and dbacks. he made a fourth start vs an nl team (padres) in may, also a good one. his cumulative line vs the nl:
ip h bb so w-l era
29.1 20 5 24 2-0 1.84

probably meaningless; he was pitching pretty well against al clubs too at that time. in any case, the month of interleague play (june) was the only one in which meche managed to keep his era under 4.00; he was at 4.78 or higher in 4 of the 6 months last season.

another fine mariner blog, USS Mariner, seems to have spoken for the majority of seattle fans in this post:

I hope the sucker that decides to give Meche a huge long-term free agent deal because they think they can fix him is in our division, because I would love to watch him get regularly shelled by the team for the next 3-5 years.
that sentiment seems less rooted in reason than in frustration; as we know from watching marquis, there's nothing more exasperating than watching a talented player (particularly a pitcher) labor to achieve mediocre results. but mediocre is exactly what meche was in 2006 --- not awful, a la marquis. taken as a whole, meche had a pretty tolerable season in 2006; 185 innings of league-average era. in 18 of his 32 starts, he posted a game score of 50 or better --- about equivalent to jeff suppan (19) and far better than jeff weaver (12). on the other hand, he has spent his whole career in a pitcher's park without once having a truly good season; he labors to throw strikes, and his shoulder history is worrisome --- particularly in light of the fact that he got worked extremely last year. if it takes 3 years / $24m to get this guy --- and such are the prognistications --- forget it; too much money.

one other item: ken rosenthal reports that baltimore is shopping rodrigo lopez, a pitcher the cardinals reportedly tried to get at the trade deadline last year. lopez had a terrible year --- 5.90 era in 189 innings --- and hasn't been very good his whole career; had one good season, whoop de doo. he is in his last year of arb eligibility, so he won't come cheap (prob about $4m) and can walk at the end of the season. the orioles have a hole in the outfield; the brewers supposedly have offered kevin mench for lopez. one can imagine st louis offering encarnacion for the guy, but i hope they don't; lopez looks like another problem, rather than a solution. the orioles (who, with the acquisition of jaret wright, now have six starting pitchers) also might dangle kris benson; he's sort of the pitching equivalent of juan encarnacion --- a reliably, hopelessly average player. benson is under contract for $7.5m this year, with an option at the same price for 2008; we'll have to see how the market develops, but he doesn't look like much of a bargain at this point and hence doesn't seem to meet the cards' needs.

i doubt the orioles would view encarnacion any more favorably . . .

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Does anyone have any rumors
Pertaining to us trading Chris Duncan? I hope not... I really like the guy.

Good Information, LB.

by TNFan32 on Nov 14, 2006 9:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

When are the GM meetings?
Some mention in the Chicago Trib made it sound like they started this past weekend.

by sdrone on Nov 14, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I believe
they open next Monday in Naples, Fl.
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 14, 2006 9:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

actually they started yesterday
all the gms went bowling . . . . san diego's kevin towers rolled a 160 and won the tournament.

i'm not making that up: http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061113&content_id=1740222&vkey=hotstove 2006&fext=.jsp

by lboros on Nov 14, 2006 10:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah
Got my Mondays mixed up.

And good for Kevin Towers. That's probably the Padres biggest acomplishment in two decades.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Nov 14, 2006 10:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Meche
had a pretty dramatic 2006 home/road split:

Home: 88.2 IP, 88 K, 3.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .235 BAA, 9 HR

Away: 98.0 IP, 68 K, 5.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .275 BAA, 15 HR

Outside of pitcher-friendly Safeco, he got shelled.

I say pass.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Nov 14, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

According to mlbtraderumors...
Brian Giles is available. Even though he hit like an oversized version of Eckstein last year, I'd take that OBP and the $18mm remaining on his contract...

One supposes the Pads would have to either pick up some $ or accept lesser prospects in return. This would free up Enc to bring a Rodrigo Lopez type...

by guayzimi on Nov 14, 2006 9:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jason Jennings
According to this article the Rockies are indeed shopping Jason Jennings for either a young centerfielder or a young pitcher.

I suppose Juan Encarnacion is wishfull thinking, and Reyes is probably too much, right?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 14, 2006 10:07 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

reyes for jennings
i see this as a no win situation. why would you trade a starter for a starter? i think reyes has the better stuff and more upside and will be a cheap starter for years to come. why would you trade him for a guy that is going to cost some good chunk of change in a year(he is going to be a free agent after the '07 season)? now, i would let juan go for jennings, ive got no problem with that especially if gonzo signs with the cards.
www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com

by cards4life on Nov 14, 2006 10:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

starter for a starter...
we did it for Mulder, and we parted with a first round draft pick and an MLB reliever in the same deal.  I know Mulder was under control for 2 years, but still, the precident exists in some form for this team trading away young starters for more experienced arms.

As far as the why of it all...

The organizations mantra has been groundball....groundball...groundball.  

Reyes induces groundballs on 34% of pitches hit into play to go with 47% flyballs and 19% line drives.

Jennings induces 44% grounders, 37% flyballs, and 19% grounders... not exactly an extreme split, but he's definatley a groundball pitcher.

The organization as recently as 2 years ago traded away a young arm in Haren for a young-veteran groundballer in Mulder.  Its possible.  Probably not wise, but its possible.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 14, 2006 10:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my fault:
to all concerned: the second one is supposed to be line drives...

sheesh.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 14, 2006 12:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Another way to look at it
is you are trading a know comodity for potential.  In that respect, its just like the Belliard-Luna trade.

by Zubin on Nov 14, 2006 10:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

huh?
44% grounders, 37% flyballs, and 19% grounders

is that the same as 63% grounders, 37% flyballs?

j/k - couldn't resist

by _pistol_ on Nov 14, 2006 10:30 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

If meche will command
3 yrs at $24 million...

What is someone like V-Padilla going to get?  If it takes a 3yrs at $27-35 mill, I think that would be much better use of payroll.  I kind of recall Padilla being a bit of a hothead though.
Has anyone heard any discussion on his price or which teams have shown interest?  

I'm thinking alot of teams are waitin for the big-spenders(Yanks, BosSox, Mets) to zero on their targets.  When these teams show interest in a FA, it seems to automatically push the more frugal teams (Cardinals, Cubs's, etc) towards the remaining FA's.  Perhaps once the Yanks go after & sign Suppan, then the real competition for the FA starters will commence.  

by _pistol_ on Nov 14, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I doubt
that suppan is at the top of the Yankees wish list just because he did well in the playoffs.  I think people are making too much of their "interest in him."  if they do sign him, it will be as a back of the rotation guy - and not as their top priority.  I am sure the Yanks will be primarily interested in Schmidt and/or Zito...and would be the only team who might pony up the cash to sign both.

by Toddius396 on Nov 14, 2006 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I say again
Everyone looks at Meche and forgets about Adam Eaton. Take a look. From his time with the Pads, we know he has decent stuff, but hasn't put it together. I think he maybe undervallued (read: avalible for 6 million rather than the 8-9 it will take to get someone like Weaver or Meche or Suppan).

by JMedwick on Nov 14, 2006 11:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Eaton
I'm with you.  I've always been a fan of Eaton, and would love to see him w/ the BOB on his chest.  His career ERA is 4.40, and GB/FB right around 1.  Anyone know what he throws?

If he truly is under the radar, he's a perfect Jockety target.

by cardzfanbub on Nov 14, 2006 11:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly
take a look at this or any other MLB site. This list of pitchers being talked about are constant:

1st tier:
Schmidt
Zito

2nd Tier:
Menche
Lilly
Wolf
Padilla
Suppan
(Weaver in some places, thought not as much)

Easton's name is never brought up in previews of the offseason pitchers avalible.

He is either under the radar or some team has the inside track on signing him, because no one is talking about Eaton.

by JMedwick on Nov 14, 2006 12:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i have heard
that the cardinals do like eaton --- from sources who have sources . . . .

by lboros on Nov 14, 2006 12:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Injuries
Seems like most of his time missed is due to "accident" injuries, a la, Scott Rolen's shoulder woes.  

He gets great results when he's not on the DL.

youneverknow

by meat on Nov 14, 2006 12:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with you on Eaton
but I think we also have to consider Tony Armas Jr.  He should available for cheap as well.

by elderj on Nov 14, 2006 12:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If we sign for Jose Cruz
and trade for Griffey, then with Mr. Spivey, we'll have the complete set of Juniors!

by Valatan on Nov 14, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Marquis' Agent
Any news on the how much interest has been generated for Marquis?  Any ideas on where he might be going?

by elderj on Nov 14, 2006 11:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

the devil rays want him
according to this.

i've also read the phillies are interested.

by lboros on Nov 14, 2006 11:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Marquis
How many home runs would Marquis give up in Philly?

Now that I think about it - not many.  He'd get mauled by a few dozen angry fans by the All-Star break.

by Robb on Nov 14, 2006 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have wondered
where Marquis will sign. Part of me thinks he will go to a bad team where he can be their 1 or 2 starter. The D-Rays or KC would be perfect for him.

by JMedwick on Nov 14, 2006 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Some team might take a chance
at putting that sinker of his in the 'pen.  It wouldn't be a horrible gamble for a one year deal at $1M with an option for a second.

by Valatan on Nov 14, 2006 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the devil rays also
supposedly are hot for Mark Mulder:

"Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman didn't waste any time. He called Clifton the day after Mulder filed for free agency. When Clifton brought Tampa Bay up to Mulder, the agent said Mulder responded positively, saying that the Rays had a core of good young players and that things seemed to be turning around in Tampa Bay."

by 26thMan on Nov 14, 2006 2:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hopefully
into another career

by MarcGldstn on Nov 14, 2006 11:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Marquis is being posted
The Siebu Lions and the Nippon Hams are dueling to meet the posting fee estimated to be at or near 42 million yen.

I just made all of that up.  Could you tell?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 14, 2006 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I know exactly how funny that is...
the joke is like an ice berg... only 1/9 above the surface.

ilillillli out!

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 14, 2006 3:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

More on Eaton vs. Meche
Just a few stats to think about when deciding which pitcher you would rather have:

Career    K/9    K/BB    G/F
Eaton    6.96    2.18    1.08
Meche    6.35    1.58    .96

I look at those numbers and see in Eaton a pitcher who could thrive with Duncan. Good stuff, good strike out rate, already slightly more of a ground ball pitcher, lower walk rates. A good fit for a Duncan guy.

The only concern with Eaton is health, he has missed some time over his career.

by JMedwick on Nov 14, 2006 12:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I no longer want to sign Meche...
after reading all that. Guy sounds exactly like Jason Marquis.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Nov 14, 2006 12:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I still like Meche
Because he's got some power pitches.  His curveball looks tough.  He's the kind of guy you wouldn't mind having go out there in the playoffs, because he strikes people out.  He has the potential to dominate a game.  

Of course, he isn't worth the kind of money Burnett got last year - and if he ends up with a deal like that - I'm sure StL won't bite.  

I think they obviously have a pretty good system for picking guys to take chances on in StL.

by Toddius396 on Nov 14, 2006 1:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Anybody excited...
for the cy young announcement coming today??

GIVE IT TO CARP, BABY!!!!

by Matty I on Nov 14, 2006 1:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately
I think Carp blew it in his last few starts of the season.  I figure its Webb or Hoffman.
He called fate's bluff on a cool New York night, October 19th, 2006.

by Number47 on Nov 14, 2006 1:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Was listening to Rome ...
this morning, sitting in the miserable LA Traffic, and he was talking about how baseball drags out their awards after the season....and though I don't usually agree with him on some things...I have to say I'm with him on this.. Just ANNOUNCE the damn awards already!...and stop this long drawn out drama.

by Timbo02 on Nov 14, 2006 2:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd go with
Oswalt

by PGeorge on Nov 14, 2006 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Post and Gonzo
Now that the Post is spewing the rumors, why are we interested in Gonzo? I put my faith in Walt, but I hope the champaign hasn't gone to his head.  We were pretty lousy against lefties last year and Gonzo isn't much of an upgrade here.  Unless they are planning to 1. platoon Encarnacion and Duncan 2. Trade someone.  
As much as I could care less about JuanE, at least he could hit the occasional lefty hard and that's a bit too much production/salary to platoon.
All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Nov 14, 2006 2:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Webb
won the award

by Matty I on Nov 14, 2006 2:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

well deserved
he's a great pitcher.  has anyone seen this chart?  webb gets grounders wherever he throws 'em...

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 14, 2006 2:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Carp
finished 3rd....only 2 first place votes

Hoffman came in 2nd (total BS)

by Matty I on Nov 14, 2006 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I feel bad for Oswalt...
that guy has to be the best active pitcher never to win a Cy Young.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Nov 14, 2006 2:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The voters....
are making odd choices. First, Crede wins the Silver Slugger over A-rod, and now Webb wins the Cy Young? Very odd.
"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Nov 14, 2006 2:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

pop-ups
Larry, Firefox tells me that it prevented a pop-up ad from opening (hooray, Firefox!). Didn't you say you wanted to hear about that?

There's no spyware or adware on my machine.

by 26thMan on Nov 14, 2006 2:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

yep, i do want to hear these
i'm getting the same popup-blocked notices . . . .

by lboros on Nov 14, 2006 5:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Eaton v. Meche
I really don't like Meche's mechanics at all, in fact I hate them.  He lands very open putting the stress on his shoulder to pull his arm forward to "catch up".  A rotator cuff tear is almost inevitable with that.  No thanks on a 3 year deal, not a chance.

Eaton has better mechanics, still not great, but not a big fan of his stuff.  I can't look up his stats right now, but I'd guess he has a huge lefty/righty split.  Curve bends away from right handers Weaver circa July-style and I haven't seen a changeup.  That's asking for trouble.

The guy that I've still seen that has the best bargain combo of stuff/mechanics is Kip Wells.  Coming off an injured season (blood clot in arm, not structural) but he's good and will be especially cheap.  I say re-sign Mulder to incentives and sign Wells as a great risk/reward replacement till June if he is bad.

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Nov 14, 2006 3:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Eaton Vs. Kip Wells...
I'm just saying...

Adam Eaton
K/9     BB/9     HR/9     GB/FB  IP/YR*
6.96    3.20     1.17     1.04   122.0

Kip Wells
K/9     BB/9     HR/9     GB/FB  IP/YR*
6.55    4.09     1.02     1.62   152.0

*average of last 5 seasons.

Eaton get's more K's and walks fewer, but is more prone to the flyball, and as a result has a harder time keeping the ball in the park.

Overall I think they're each a better match for the Cardinals than Meche is (considering both dollars and predictable performance).  I can see both being servicable options for the 4th/5th slot in the rotation.  Overall I think the Cardinals tend to side with groundball pitchers more (Wells) .  And although Eaton stikes out more and walks fewer than wells, he gives up more long balls.

Both would be OK, neither would be great.  The biggest argument that could be made against either is that neither one truly posesses a durable arm... something the Cardinals tend to value.

Is this as good as it gets?

I think a trade is in order this year, I don't know how, but these FA options are none too enticing.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 14, 2006 4:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

that BB/9 rate is ugly though
if there's one thing I hate it's giving away free passes to the other team.  I'm not a huge Kip Wells fan but if they slot him toward the back of the rotation for a Suppan-esqe contract of 3-4 million a year, I'd be down for that.  They might just want to stick to short term on him though.  

I'm not convinced we are going to be able to find 3 pitchers better than Narveson.  The pitching market is so thin; I'm really interested to see what Walt does.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 14, 2006 4:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

re: Wells
He isn't going to command 4 mil a year.  He's a guy coming off an injury plagued year and even at the times he did pitch, did so horribly.  That is following a pretty bad '05 and an injury shortened '04.  I'd be surprised if he gets more than 2.5 guaranteed if that.

That said, when he was completely health and in rhythm, he was a great #2 in '02/'03 (bet you didn't know that); that can't be said of any of the other bargain options.

Especially if we plan on resigning Mulder which means we have to get 6 pitchers, Wells is the clear option in my mind.  If he bombs, we only have to deal with it for 2 months tops, if he Duncans (it should be in the dictionary) himself into '02/'03, we've got a legitimate #2 with a 120-130 ERA+.  The risk/reward is very, very good in my mind.

Signing MarKip Mulderells to a guaranteed 5-6 million with the upside of getting two #2 quality pitchers is the best option for the fifth slot.

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Nov 14, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

interesting
I didn't realize he had posted such a good 02/03.  I'd say that he might have peaked at that point but I certainly think that it's possible for him to be a midrotation guy but I wouldn't call him a #2 guy.  I think it's a bad idea for the club to PLAN on him being anything more than a 4/5 guy though.

Those two years look an awful lot like an aberration.  Wells doesn't have particularly good stuff and relies on keeping the ball down.  I think you could see Suppan-like results from Wells, i.e. 4.00 ERA, 180IP, mediocre strikeout rates.  He just screams league average at me.  I think if Duncan can help him spot his pitches and throw low in the zone he could be decent.

I also think you are underestimating the pitching FA market.  I think that it is going to be shocking and ridiculous.  I think that Walt may be best served by pursuing guys like Wells and Woody that are low cost, low committment but I still think Wells gets 4 million per year and at least 2 years.  I think the market is just that crazy.

Then again, I could be wrong.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 14, 2006 7:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

neither wells
nor eaton have been able to stay healthy.

by erik on Nov 14, 2006 7:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

that's why it isn't ideal
lets just sing zito, he's never missed a start.  it's that simple?
o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Nov 15, 2006 2:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Benson?
Are you seriously suggesting we could get Anna Benson on our team? What's the holdup?
Curt Ford 6/22/85

by simba on Nov 15, 2006 12:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

currency jokes kick ass!!!
Seriously, that was f-ing brilliant.  As far as all the FA pitchers go, I really,really,really, hate Gil Meche.  I mean, not personally.  I'm sure he's a lovely person.  But, as far as a pitcher goes, he's the same guy as Jason Marquis.  I actually follow the AL West teams pretty closely; I ordered the satellite baseball package just to watch them.  Meche is a complete headcase.  Watching him pitch is almost exactly like the water torture of watching Marquis flop around.  He'll rip off a 94 fastball that just absolutely overpowers a hitter, then hang a curveball about belt high and look surprised at where it ends up.  I always thought Wells was a really interesting pitcher when he was with the Pirates, but at this point I dont think he has enough of his stuff left to ever be as good as a lot of people projected he would be.  Eaton is intriguing, but his injury history reads like War and Peace.  The finger problem, in particular, really worries me.  The guy that I really like of the available pitchers, personally, is Lilly.  I know he's a little bit more in demand than a few of the others, but I think he's probably the best horse if you're going to bet your paycheck.  This is just one of my personal things, but I hate the way that the Cardinals tend to wait back and let other teams set the market before they make any moves.  I understand the principle, it just seems as if the team seems to lose out on players that could really help them sometimes, as those guys are already gone by the time the Cards get into the game.  

by the red baron on Nov 16, 2006 7:29 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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