water torture redux

by lboros on Oct 26, 2006 8:54 AM EDT in News Comment 179 comments

assuming they play tonight (a very iffy assumption), jeff weaver will probably start game 5 on full rest friday night; okay by me. game 6 should then go to reyes, who will be on extra rest and pitching in the tigers' gigantic ballpark, with carpenter available for game 7. there's talk of bringing carpenter back on short rest for game 6 saturday night, but his recent performances make that option seem increasingly stupid to me. he got weary down the stretch in september and became hittable, lost a couple big games (and likely the cy young award); and he looked gassed vs the mets in game 2 of the nlcs. then, with an extra day of rest, he comes out and dominates the tigers . . . . . seems like rest is a major issue for carp at this point. moreoever, if he pitches game 6 on short rest, he faces kenny rogers --- which means the cards would effectively cede the pitching-pairing advantage in a game that carpenter pitched. really, really stupid. far more sensible, imho, to preserve the giant advantage in the game 7 pairings (carp v robertson). if the cards can win just once in the next two home games, they go into game 6 with no danger of elimination; throw reyes on full rest, with rested carp in reserve. the alternative -- carp on short rest in game 6 -- would leave two options for game 7, if necessary: reyes (hah!) or suppan on short rest.

'nother rainout tonight, and we can run this exercise again tomorrow. and since it's likely to snow in detroit this weekend . . . . . maybe carp can just pitch every game.

rust watch: some people think the tigers' bats, red-hot during the 1st two rounds of the playoffs, went cold during the six-day layoff between the end of the alcs and the start of the world series. that's an arguable point; i don't necessarily buy it. but i raise it because the cardinal bullpen has now reached a similar state of dormancy. in the week since the cards won the nlcs, randy flores and josh kinney have faced just 3 batters apiece; tyler johnson has pitched to just 2; and closer adam wainwright has only faced one hitter, curtis granderson, whom he struck out. pitchers probably can stay sharp more easily than hitters, simply by throwing on the side and rehearsing their full complement of pitches; batting is a more situation-dependent skill, and it's more difficult to simulate a realistic context, so timing and reflexes might suffer. in any event, whenever they do play game 4 it's going to be important to get the bullpen -- particularly wainwright -- involved.

speaking of wainwright, his confrontation with carlos beltran in the final game of the nlcs truly was one for the ages, per the new republic:

It appears to have been only the tenth at-bat in baseball history in which each pitch could have resulted in a league pennant or championship for both the team at-bat and the team in the field.

actually, the same could be said for the at-bat that preceded beltran's; a lo duca home run would have clinched the pennant for the mets, while an out would have clinched it for st louis. in any case, baseball hadn't seen such a heavily fraught plate appearance since 1992, when francisco cabrera won the pennant for atlanta in nearly the same situation -- bases loaded, two outs, and a one-run spread on the scoreboard. cabrera is the only one of the 10 or so batters who've faced that situation to come through with a hit and deliver a walkoff victory; in all other cases the pitching team closed it out. hat tip to baseball musings for that link.

wait a sec --- one more almost-analogous at-bat occurred in the famous one-game playoff between the red sox and yankees to decide the 1978 al east divisional title. carl yastrzemski came to bat in the bottom of the 9th with two on, two out, and the sox trailing 5-4. he faced goose gossage with whole the season in the balance -- a hall-of-famer facing one of the greatest relievers in history. now that was a meaningful confrontation, even if didn't decide a pennant (merely a division). yaz fouled out to third; the yankees went on to repeat as world champs.

as long as we're rehashing last week's news: met fans are still debating whether willie randolph should have ordered a bunt after the first two men reached in the bottom of the 9th of game 7. the wall street journal's carl bialak has the most detailed breakdown of the situation i have yet seen; looks like the bunt might have been in order:

At my request, Mr. [Dan] Levitt found 398 situations in the 15 years from 1977 to 1992 in which a pinch-hitter was used in a situation similar to the one faced by the Mets: no outs, runners on first and second and the pitcher's spot up. Teams that bunted scored at least two runs on 35.5% of the occasions; those that did not scored on 31.7%.

now, it's not as if randolph could have halted the game, called dan levitt, and had him run a study on bunting before he made his decision. i also question how heavily randolph would have weighted that information even if he'd had it right in front of him. you couldn't blame him for saying, "to hell with the numbers; we're facing a rookie pitcher who's clearly nervous, let's go for the throat." maybe he said that very thing; if he did, it wasn't such a terrible call. wainwright did gather himself, to a point; he struck out floyd. but then he left a pitch up to jose reyes that got smoked -- lucky break, it sailed within range of jim edmonds' glove -- and walked lo duca on five pitches. in the end, randolph got himself about as good a set of circumstances as he could have hoped for -- an mvp candidate at the plate with a chance to win it all with one swing.

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Comments

I watch that Beltran at bat...

atleast once a day, and love it every time.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 26, 2006 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Adam...

Wainwright's curveball is a beautiful woman. I hit up youtube just about every day myself.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could one of you guys throw in a link for that?

I'd appreciate it mucho.

It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.

by Glenn Brummer stole home on Oct 26, 2006 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pinch hitting

and it's not like he was pinch hitting his infield defensive replacement there. Floyd was one of the bigger bats on the team, relegated to PH duty by injury.

If TLR had a freshly off of the DL Edmonds or Rolen on the bench for a game critical AB, I'd certainly expect him to take the pitcher out for one of those guys

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

build an ark

"But Solomon said that if the games at Busch Stadium are delayed until the weekend, Commissioner Bud Selig has the discretion to use Monday as a travel day with the possible games in Detroit being pushed back to Tuesday and Wednesday nights."

"That decision still has to be made," Solomon said

Don't really know which team this would help more. I would assume they wouldn't go up against Mon night football. But if Soup gets a win, Carp could close it out on Sunday.

"The good Lord was good to me. He gave me a strong body, a good right arm, and a weak mind." -Dizzy Dean

by vince eating tarp on Oct 26, 2006 9:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Weather

It's supposed to be great in St. Louis over the weekend, lousy in Detroit. It might actually make the most sense, from a delay standpoint, to simply make the call now for Games 4 and 5 on Saturday and Sunday, 6 and 7 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Of course, that really stretches things out.

by Robb on Oct 26, 2006 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's the side problem

of having a game seven in Detroit on Devil's Night. There's more than a little disaster that could go down in that situation.

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

I'm just a little frustrated, since I have tickets for tonights game....which I was hoping would be a clinch game. Not that Game 4 is a given, mind you.

by Robb on Oct 26, 2006 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

same here

I think I'll hang out NEAR the stadium, but not actually go in until I hear that the game's a go.

by effin fisk on Oct 26, 2006 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Devil's Night

Maybe The Crow will protect the Cards on Devil's Night in Detroit...

I like LBoro's suggestion of Weaver in Game 5, Reyes in a bigger park for Game 6 (if necessary) and Carp for the deciding Game 7 (if necessary). That seems like the best scenario.

"I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!"

by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Oct 26, 2006 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that works with me

suppan on saturday and if we win that, Carp on Sunday at home to clinch

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping for 1 more rainout

I know it's being greedy but it would let us move Carp up to game 6. We would need 2 out of the next 3 w/ 2 at home and w/ Suppan, Weaver, and Carp going vs. Bonderman, Verlander, and Rogers.

by chuckb on Oct 26, 2006 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, i need some help...

I've put together an interesting chart, IMO, but can't get it to paste in a decent format on here. The columns become all skewed.. Any suggestions?

by toris34 on Oct 26, 2006 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It'd be some work

but you could:

1)put the chart in your favorite spreadsheet.

2)Screen capture the image of the chart

3)Upload the image file to imageshack

4)Link to the image in a post, or post the image

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or

You can past everything in Notepad and get it to look right using a fixed width font (like Courier New) that doesn't have any HTML (just end of lines and spaces). Then you can post it in a <code></code> block that will then be displayed in a fixed width font as well.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Subject: Cardinal Kiddie Corps Relievers ...

(Wainright/Flores/Kinney/Johnson) have posted an amazing 0.36 ERA in the post-season, with 32 K's in 25.1 IP. Is there any single factor that looms larger in this October Awakening than that turnaround?

by Urban Pawnee on Oct 26, 2006 9:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Makes me wonder...

if the "kids" see Izzy out of the picture and realize this thing is on them now. Wading through post after post, I think it is safe to say we all have been asking our guys to step up and the boys in the pen have. Great to see!!!

Just enjoyin' the ride...

by 4CardsFanz on Oct 26, 2006 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whatever they are

doing is working, we knew that wainwright was going to be good, but with johnson and kinney, i think we knew they had the stuff, they just weren't using it the right way, and i think the playoffs have made these guys realize that they need to play to their strengths, which for both of them is their unreal breaking stuff, i think kinney's sliders are the best out of the pen since kiko

it also helps that TRL is putting them in situations where failure is not an option, again forcing them to throw their best pitch

these guys simply have not been throwing the ball over the middle of the plate and that helps too, and to be honest, i think a lot of hitters are helping them out to in assuming these youngs guys are going to be throwing fastballs early in the count, but instead that throw their silly stuff for strikes, and hitters find themselves in a hole, which allows these guys to go back to their strengths

get up baby, get up

by jimmybaseball42 on Oct 26, 2006 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Carpenter

Do we have an option on Carp for 2008?

by Fitz on Oct 26, 2006 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

$8M, with a $1M buyout

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

gawd

suppan will probally get more than this next year...

by BigJawnMize on Oct 26, 2006 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

could someone confirm for me?

Barring no more rainouts, Last nights game would be made up on Friday correct?

"The good Lord was good to me. He gave me a strong body, a good right arm, and a weak mind." -Dizzy Dean

by vince eating tarp on Oct 26, 2006 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

right

it's all pending rain.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Val, best I could do.

I must give some props to my brother for bringing this up during pregame on Tuesday, saying that Carp was dominant on extra rest. I decided to gather some info on to back it up... I say(depending on rain) consider using him in gave 7 on extra rest before game 6 on normal. Here are the 8 starts he made this year on atleast 5 days of rest.. Damn impressive.

date    inn    H    BB    R    K    ERA    WHIP    W-L
4/14    8.00    4    3    1    6    1.13    0.875    L
6/13    7.00    3    3    0 13    0.00    0.857    W
7/25    7.33    7    3    0    4    0.00    1.364    W
8/15    9.00    4    6    0    6    0.00    1.111    W
8/26    8.00    2    1    1    5    1.13    0.375    ND
9/1    9.00    3    0    1    8    1.00    0.333    W
10/3    6.33    5    1    1    7    1.42    0.947    W
10/26 8.00    3    0    0    6    0.00    0.375    W
ave    7.83 3.9 2.1 0.5 6.9 0.600 0.780    won 6 lost 1

by toris34 on Oct 26, 2006 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

formatted

date    inn     H    BB   R    K    ERA     WHIP     W-L  

4/14    8.00    4    3    1    6    1.13    0.875    L  

6/13    7.00    3    3    0    13   0.00    0.857    W  

7/25    7.33    7    3    0    4    0.00    1.364    W  

8/15    9.00    4    6    0    6    0.00    1.111    W  

8/26    8.00    2    1    1    5    1.13    0.375    ND  

9/1     9.00    3    0    1    8    1.00    0.333    W  

10/3    6.33    5    1    1    7    1.42    0.947    W  

10/26   8.00    3    0    0    6    0.00    0.375    W  

ave     7.83    3.9  2.1  0.5  6.9  0.600   0.780    6-1

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

nice work.

good archive. really compelling evidence. making a poing and supporting it. I like it.

Just to get greedy, do you have home/road split for extra day of rest schedule? Wait, I can look that up... great post.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

great research

Compelling -- make that overwhelming -- stuff, toris.

It's really, really hard to make a good case for Carp on short rest, especially when, barring multiple rainouts, he's only going to pitch once more anyway. Seeing these numbers, I'm now inclined to say the team actually ought to go out of its way to pitch him on long rest.

For what it's worth, TLR's signals seem to be that he would consider pitching Carp in game 6 only if the Cards were down 3-2. I don't know why that should any real difference, but that seems to be the thinking.

by DCGreg on Oct 26, 2006 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something to consider...

That's definately something to think about, but I might have to side with La Russa's signals on this one, as...

A normal (not short)-rested Carpenter still gives you a better chance to win the game than any combination of rest + Weaver/Reyes.
Game 7 isn't a given. In a 3-2 Tigers situation a loss sends you home. Even if a post-tar Rogers isn't as sharp, the cards probably still need some great pitching to even get to game 7.
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush (I'm the first one to make that pun, I swear). Carpenter winning game 6 and worrying about game 7 later is worth more to me than losing game 6 with Carpenter lurking.
Youkneverknow... the way Suppan's been going, maybe he can deliver 3-4 or more quality innings in a potential game 7 in support of Weaver/Reyes
How sweet would it be to have Tony La Russa bookend a world series with rookie Reyes? Answer: highly sweet.

Overall I see a 3-2 Tigers advantage going into games 6 and 7 as one long game... That is to say, in a game your starter is your best pitcher (in this case Carpenter), you bring in the relief to pick up the pieces.

I hope that this scenario never comes up, as I can see the Cardinals at least one behind Suppan and against Verlander... but I like thinking about it.

Peace.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's not to say

I like thinking about what it would be like for the Tigers to be up... nothing could be further from the truth... I just meant talking baseball, I like baseball.

Viva El Birdos.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's all silly talk anyway

If anything this postseason has taught us is that anything is possible. Stats are being thrown out the proverbial window. THe Cardinals are winning on one great pitcher, one good pitcher, and two WIP's. Winning on a "brat pack" bullpen. Winning on timely hits and defense. I'm telling ya, this is surreal. I feel like it's early May right now. The Cardinals in the World Series? That's funny! THen you try to justify it and it comes back to who wants it more. Heart, desire, revenge for '04, underdogs, Pujols (not as much as we thought though), Older Wiser MV3, whatever. On paper it was Pads in 4, or Mets in 5, or Tigers in 3. (try not to laugh) What have we seen? A team rising to the occasion. A team saying to every stat-head and computer simulation, "We don't feel like playing to the status-quo. We don't feel like meeting everyone's expectations. We're above that." THe Cardinals in the World Series? That's Funny!

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

your premise

seems to be that Carp would be on regular rest for Game 6. That would occur only if there's another rainout. If so, and if the Cards are down 3-2, then it's a closer call. You're trading off some of the factors you mentioned against toris's numbers about Carp's success on long rest.

What would be outrageous, in my view, would be to pitch Carp on SHORT rest for Game 6 when you still have to win Game 7.

by DCGreg on Oct 26, 2006 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're right...

I was supposing that one (or both) of the next 2 games in STL would be rained out (90% chance of rain this evening I believe).

I certainly wouldn't short-rest carpenter for 3-2 Tigers game 6, but if he could have is regular amount of rest, I'd at least think about giving him the nod... lets hope we never even have to think about this.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

two stories i would love to see

one would be seeing weaver get the clinching win, not that i'm a huge weaver fan, i think he looks like a goon on the mound, and can pout better than a hungry three year old, but i think it would make LaDunc very proud because he is a pitcher they always thought the could make great

two would be to have reyes win the clincher, i'm not sure when the last time a rookie pitcher won both the first and clinching game of the world series was, but i think it would mean a lot for reyes future as a pitcher and a cardinal

i wouldn't mind the series going to game 7, and carpenter pitching like he did the other night and engraving himself as the best pitcher in baseball

get up baby, get up

by jimmybaseball42 on Oct 26, 2006 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

an ERA lower than his WHIP. That's almost an argument for cutting him down to 29 or 30 starts during the regular season

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

tickets.

so whats the deal with the ticket situation. Are game five tickets used tonight and game four tomorrow? and if it gets rained out tonight how does it work out?

by gdowdy3 on Oct 26, 2006 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The short answers are...

Yes. "Game Five" tickets are good tonight, and "Game Four" tickets are good tomorrow night.
If there's another rainout tonight, I have no idea what MLB will do... and Bud Selig probably doesn't, either!

"A man should live forever, or die trying." -- Mike Callahan

by The Ol Goaler on Oct 26, 2006 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tickets

Currently, Game 5 tickets are good for tonight (their original date), while Game 4 tickets are good for tomorrow (their make-up date.)

I assume that if tonight's game is rained out, then those tickets would become good for Saturday night.

by Robb on Oct 26, 2006 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best thing to do

is call the ticket office...

by cardsrul on Oct 26, 2006 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rain, Weaver, Reyes

Who do you got? Reyes or Weaver? I vote Weaver at home, Reyes away. (based on the vast expanse of Comerica) However Weaver stepped up huge against the Mets away. I'm not gonna lie though, I'm still not sure of either of them. Weaver has had a great turnaround, but is it going to last? Reyes shows rookie brilliance, then a rookie being a rookie. But it's who we got, and I'm stickin with em till the end. Is that pretty much the consensus though? Reyes away, weaver home?

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Partially,

Weaver just regressed to the mean. Even with the Angels, his peripherals didn't really drop all that much--he was still walking and striking out guys at the same rate. The results looked worse than his performance, a big indicator of bad luck.

Then, Jocketty tweaked his delivery and helped him prep for his starts, and voilà, a solid, middle of the rotation starter.

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I graduated

from the University of Missouri with a degree in Communications. I have no idea what "regressed to the mean" or "peripherals" are. I know what bad luck is though. If I guess what your thinking its that Weaver hasn't changed as a pitcher, just has a better game plan?

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

peripherals are things like

strikeouts per nine innings or walks per start--stats that kind of indicate how good a pitcher is at controlling an AB, but don't necessarily translate directly to a low ERA. It is generally considered true that pitchers have a lot of control over their peripheral stats, as they don't have a ton to do with defense and stadiums and in-game situations. Thus, in general, a pitchers' strikeouts per nine will change less from year to year than the pitcher's ERA will. Typically, it is also the case that a pitcher who has a bad year in terms of W-L and ERA, but maintains the same peripherals, is more likely to bounce back than one who suffers huge drops in both things.

For example, when people were mad at the Mulder trade, they pointed to a huge drop in his strikeouts per nine innings as evidence that something was wrong with him, and that he would never return to his 2001 form.

Regression to the mean is a concept that pretty much builds on what I talked about above--players will have unlucky years that aren't truly representative of their skill level, and then that luck will turn around, and they will show up as their 'real' selves again, or they will have uncharacteristically spectacular years (think 2003 Renteria), and fall back to the pack. If you say someone is going to regress to the mean, you're asking the listener to look at their career performance, rather than this year's performance

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i.e.--he's averaged out.

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Oct 26, 2006 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't

it be "progressed" to the mean if he was below average? You regress to the mean if your above average?

I hate math

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fair enough

and you usually use the term with players that are performing over their head, rather than the other way around, and the phrase just fell out of my keyboard from use.

But yes "progressed to the mean" is probably a better term for describing what Weaver has done.

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weaver at home

Remember how our outfielders were making those catches with their backs against the wall? We need that extra room

by Schnake on Oct 26, 2006 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

definetly gave up a few HR in game one if it was played at busch

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I only remember one

that would've been a HR at Busch and that was Pudges blast.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 26, 2006 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Throw REYES in Game 4!!

Why not throw Reyes today on full rest? If the series goes 7, we have to throw everybody one more time, and Game 4 will be the game with the least pressure. Then Soup in 5, Weava in 6, and Carp in 7.

LaRussa's approach seems to be, "Throw the best pitcher who is available," defining "available" as full rest. But, he deviated from that for Game 1, I think b/c Game 1 was a lower pressure start for the kid than Game 2 would have been. Why not do the same now?

If he starts Soup in 4 and Weaver in 5, that admittedly gives us the best chance to clinch at home. But, it puts Reyes on the hot seat for Game 6 if we don't clinch in 5, and if [I won't say it] happens, Game 6 could be an elimination game for us. What then? Going with Soup in 4 and Weaver in 5 creates the possibility of an elimination threat in Game 6 and the only starters being (a) a rookie, or (b) Carp on short rest. Dumb! And easily avoidable!

By starting Reyes in 4 and Soup in 5, you eliminate the foregoing ugly possibilty and, worst case, we have Weaver in Game 6 facing elimination, which I can live with.

Weirder, but even better, would be to start Reyes in 4 and Weava in 5. This keeps everybody on reg rest except Soup - but leaves Soup for the hotseat in Game 6. Although this puts both Weaver and Soup at odds with their home/road splits, I just don't think those #'s are relevant anymore. This play also runs the risk that Soup never gets to pitch, but I can't imagine that anyone will mind if we win in 5 without Soup getting a start -- except Soup of course.

So, most conservative, I'd go:
Reyes
Weaver
Soup
Carp

Slightly more aggressive is:
Reyes
Soup
Weaver
Carp

But stay away, please, from:
Soup
Weaver
Reyes
Carp

And, for pity's sake, stay away from:
Soup
Weaver
Carp (on short rest)
Soup (on short rest)

That's how a sure-fire recipe for a 7-game loss.

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Win Now

We need one more game at busch. Soup gives us that best chance. Win that and we still have Carp to close it up. We have two shots to win one game at home. I like Reyes at Comerica for it's big outfield. (Two hits during game one would have been HR's at BUsch.) Weaver and Soup at home gives us the best chance to win the one we need. Carp is Carp and if we can win it all with him pitching, I'll take that chance.

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just had deja vu reading this post

by Schnake on Oct 26, 2006 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's where I disagree

With your first two approaches, you reduce the chances the Cards could bring Suppan back in relief in Game 7.

by DCGreg on Oct 26, 2006 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

anyone have a good read on the weather in st.louis

can you give me an idea on chances of playing the game?

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Oct 26, 2006 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Short answer:

not good.

by cardsrul on Oct 26, 2006 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I like to hear!

I wanna see Carp in game 6. No, I really want to see us clinch in game 5 but, if that's not possible, Carp on the mound in game 6.

by chuckb on Oct 26, 2006 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really?

the radar makes it look as though the rain will have passed through by this afternoon

by DCGreg on Oct 26, 2006 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As for the idea that our bullpen will go cold

I hadn't thought of that but I do think that it's probably easier for pitchers to replicate game situations than it is for hitters. The flipside of that coin is that the Tigers' hitters have hardly seen our relievers at all. Wainwright's pitched to all of 1 batter this series. It'll make it tougher on the hitters when they do have to face him.

by chuckb on Oct 26, 2006 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

another great article bashing pujols

actually i liked this one ok til the end...They want Pujols to be sosa A guy who left his teamates and used cork...

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-061025seriesbrite,1,2517101.story?co ll=cs-cubs-headlines

Still dont agree that hes bondsish seems his teamates like AP

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Oct 26, 2006 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

negativity

I really don't understand the sudden outburst of negativity towards Pujols. Great player, great guy.

And anyone who compares Bonds to Pujols should be shot.

by Fitz on Oct 26, 2006 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It started with burwell

It is sadding to me, and it times he does tend to not do interviews especially after a loss, but do you blame the guy? AP you lost 12-1 tonight and you went 0-4 could you tell me how you feel? its retarded...The glavine thing didnt help, but its funny Luis Gonzalez defended him on Fox said it was blown out of proportion and he was trying to ralley his team

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Oct 26, 2006 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bonds-Pujols Comparisons

I'll tell Bryan Burwell of the Post-Dispatch to go into hiding so he doesn't get shot since he compared Pujols to Bonds last week.

"I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!"

by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Oct 26, 2006 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry about it

a) It's Tribune writer sour grapes

b) This guy forgets that everyone would pitch to Sosa. 'Cause he'd strike out. Sosa's been gone a couple of years and they've completely forgotten how utterly crappy Sosa was with men in scoring position in a tight game.

This must be today's paper - I haven't seen the article yet.

by sdrone on Oct 26, 2006 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ya its today

and they forget how much of a premadonna SOSA was, how he left that one season early, and used Cork...sammy was all about sammy.

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Oct 26, 2006 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bullcrap

Sammy Sosa wasn't that much of a team player. He just smiled all the time so people thought he was friendly. And he cheated with 'roids and cork. If he wasn't using them, why did he drop off SO very badly in the last few years.

Also, I swear, if I ever see Albert doing a Pepsi taste-test commercial...I don't eve know...

In Albert we trust.

by Mr Redbird on Oct 26, 2006 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

F***ing Fox

Is anyone here as pissed at Fox as I am? Who the hell do they think they are? They don't get to determine if/when a game is played. That's MLB's call. It was obvious last night that the game should have been postponed right away. But Fox wouldn't allow it; there's a bunch of new shows on next week and World Series ratings are crappy. So they subject the teams and fans to a long rain delay? It's complete bullshit. What if they started the game at 9:30 (which was possible)? Is it fair to ask young kids to stay up until 1 a.m. to watch their team? If it rains today, will Fox delay the game until midnight so they don't have to preempt Prison Break and House? Selig, how did you become such a fucking pussy?

by lerwin1 on Oct 26, 2006 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fine, FOX

give the coverage to another network (please not ABC). I think a lot of people could get behind that.

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to defend fox

but I had thought the dynamic was the reverse: Fox wanted the game postponed, figuring the ratings would be even worse if the game started at 10:00 eastern time, and MLB wanted it to go on. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

by DCGreg on Oct 26, 2006 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really sure what they are thinking

but if it rains tonight, find something other than the war at home to show.

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Oct 26, 2006 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Show they pick

They'll just try to pick another one of their suffering shows to try to generate an audience for. Although in the case of a rain delay they'd probably pick ones that are only a half hour long so they could make sure it's a full episode that got aired.

Luckily if there's no game tonight you can watch reruns of the Office, or new CSI's or Grey's Anatomy or whatever.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

office a rerun?

I already missed last week's episode and forgot to watch it.

better look up the tv listings then b/c this game will not be played tonight.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well then

YOU MUST WRESTLE MY COUSIN MOSE!

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 26, 2006 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

That's how I understood it, too.

by sirensofsilence on Oct 26, 2006 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MLB is FOX's b**ch

At least during the playoffs. Fox decides what time each game is played in the early rounds, no matter if it means some fans will never see their team in prime time (West Coast), or will be up will 1 am on the East Coast. Fox calls the rainouts. I'm surprised Fox doesn't give LaRussa and Leyland "suggested" lineups to maximize the "drama."

Combine that with camera work that allows you to count the pitcher's facial hairs up until the point he releases the ball--but never lets you see the positioning or movement of the fielders--and goofy up-from-the-ground-crotch-shot cameras.

Fox is almost single-handedly ensuring that a new generation of young fans will have little interest in baseball.

by blove121 on Oct 26, 2006 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TheBrushback.com

TheBrushback.com has a pretty funny little article about it.

Star Of Prison Break To Pitch Game 4 Of World Series

ST LOUIS--Wentworth Miller, star of the hit Fox TV show Prison Break, has been penciled in to start Game 4 of the World Series for the St Louis Cardinals. Miller will replace the original starter, Jeff Suppan. Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa said he had "no control" over the decision.

"Nothing I can do about it," LaRussa said. "I just got called to a meeting with Commissioner Selig and some Fox executives and they said Wentworth Miller of Prison Break was my Game 4 starter. I guess it's some kind of promotional thing. I asked if he could just come out and throw the first pitch, but they said that wasn't enough. They need to raise awareness about their fall lineup. Makes sense, I guess. I just hope this little turd can find the plate. Fortunately, the Tigers will swing at pretty much anything."

LaRussa also revealed that during the 7th inning stretch, "God Bless America" would be sung by the dog from Family Guy.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

credit where due

similar perspective voiced at:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/rawfisher/

by blove121 on Oct 26, 2006 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In Selig's Case

Look at the guy. He was born that way...

Bench Juan Encarnacion!

by STLCardinalsFan on Oct 26, 2006 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Selig, and Fox

Fox deserves the big share of the blame for torturing fans in the stadium and at home by insisting that the game would be played so that their prime time schedule next week would not be affected. That was pointlessly cruel (as was the absolute garbage Fox showed instead of the ball game during the rain delay).

Selig has never been a strong leader, nor a wise one. He sort of understands money, and he will do whatever broadcasters with money ask him to do. He is weak and venal, so don't expect him to show any courage or good judgment about the game. He never has, and he never will.

by madridbend on Oct 26, 2006 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Having studied a tad bit of meteorology...

... I didn't think it was handled all that
poorly. Don't get me wrong though; I'm not
defending Fox's antics and dictations on when a
baseball game will or will not be played.

The band of rain that was moving in seemed very
likely to cruise through by 8pm or so. I looked
at the radar and thought the same thing.
Unfortunately, it stalled out, losing forward
momentum about that same time, taking on a bit
more rotation with St Louis being near the center.
I certainly thought we were getting a game in
after the band of rain passed, and I'm sure a
number of other folks calling the shots thought
so as well.

by lostraven on Oct 26, 2006 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Viva El Birdos

has a meteorologist! This is awesome news.

by effin fisk on Oct 26, 2006 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's my two cents

The only way I would move Carpenter up from Game 7 is if Detroit won the next two games. I'd much rather have fully-rested pitchers going and Carp in the balance until we need him.

I liked the idea earlier from (sorry, forget who it was) bout moving Reyes up to tonight, so our three best pitchers are going for 5, 6, and 7. However, I remember a certain last game of the season where Reyes started and wasn't notified until the day of the game, and then gave up like 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning. So I'd hate to do that in the World Series.

But like I said. Keep Carp until we ABSOLUTELY need him. Let's win the thing without having to use him again, eh?

In Albert we trust.

by Mr Redbird on Oct 26, 2006 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It was MLB's call,

not Fox's, no matter what anyone thinks. It's not like Rupert Murdock(or Keifer Sutherland) called Selig and told him what to do. Common sense needs to prevail here....

by cardsrul on Oct 26, 2006 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Keifer Sutherland

Actually, I wish Keifer Sutherland would call Selig and tell him to grow a spine.

by madridbend on Oct 26, 2006 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keifer

He can't call Bud. He's in a Chinese secret prison.

by Robb on Oct 26, 2006 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What are you talking about?

OBVIOUSLY he's still got his Sprint Nextel phone with him. He's uploading a CD full of data in 12 seconds over the full T3 wireless service that all Sprint phones have.

by sdrone on Oct 26, 2006 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fox

Seems clear to me that Fox was calling the shots.

by lerwin1 on Oct 26, 2006 12:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SRO

I'm going to the game tonight (assuming it doesn't postponed of course) and I have standing room tickets. Does anyone have a suggestion where to stand in the stadium?

by themang on Oct 26, 2006 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Out of

the rain...

by cardsrul on Oct 26, 2006 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just behind the 500 sections

In centerfield, there are concessions stands and an amazing view of the fields and bullpen... I highly recomend it. I was there for game 3 of NLDS (Suppan's only postseason non-gem).

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever you do...

don't stand in the press box... It's unheated and is exposed to the elements!

by guayzimi on Oct 26, 2006 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SRO

stand directly behind home plate in the upper deck, right beneath the press boxes (and the giant bud light sign). It's a great view, there's always room, and you're not standing in front of anyone with seats.

by jeff abs on Oct 26, 2006 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Floyd and the bunt

Carl Bialik is an extremely good guy, but I'm not sure how useful his analysis of Floyd's AB is, considering he neglects (a) the break-even points for various hitters in various bunting situations (obviously it makes less sense for good hitters to bunt than bad), (b) Floyd's experience and prior success (or lack thereof) as a bunter, and (c) Floyd's injured Achilles tendon, which greatly increased the chance of (if not guaranteed) a double play if there was a force at third. In fact, he wrote a lot about how ALL bunters did in similar situations over the years, but virtually nothing about how THIS ONE particular batter, Cliff Floyd, would have done in a particular circumstance.

Brian Gunn

by briangunn on Oct 26, 2006 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it seems to me

that if Randolph were going to bunt, he would have sent someone other than Floyd up.

You don't send up your pinch hitter, and then decide whether to have him bunt or swing away.

Randolph would have sent up Franco, who has about 300 sac bunts in his career, if that's what he wanted to do

it was a HUGE mistake by Randolph, which seemed obvious at the time:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/comments/2006/10/19/23296/122/73#73

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

Floyd gives you your best chance to put runs on the board and maybe tie the game. He's probably the third best power hitter on the team, and he's up with two on and no outs. If he hits a home run, the game is over. If he hits a double or a single, then a run scores, and you have a fast Endy Chavez on third, no outs, and Beltran, Lo Duca, and Reyes coming up. Pinch run for Floyd, and things are looking pretty good for the Mets in that situation, and that's assuming that Chavez doesn't score from first

Either way, the Mets come out pretty well, and it makes a of a lot of sense to me to use your best power hitter in that situation.

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

New Republic's One for the Ages.

I'm not sure New Republic said what they meant to say. If the criteria is really an at-bat that could have decided the outcome either way, then any two-out, bottom of the ninth at bat with the person at bat being the winning run would count; including, for instance, bases loaded and trailing by 3, or a man on first trailing by 1. Or I suppose, an at-bat with one-out, but a double play a possibility.
Is there really only 11 such instances?

by bakemcbride on Oct 26, 2006 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It has to be a game seven

or, previous to 1968, the last game of the season/playoff between two teams tied for first place

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A few thoughts from last night

I few in on Tuesday night, could only stay for yesterday, and few home today, leaving me out of luck for seeing game 4.

Stadium is nice looking; it was my first time in the new digs. The only really noticable problem were the poor access to the top of the stadium, which was a maze to find my way up.
What is the deal with no announcements at the game. I sat there for more than 2 hours in the cold with none of the updates that folks sitting at home got watching the game. If the Cardinals/ MLB think so little of the folks showing up to watch the World Series in person, then maybe they should just move the game to a neutral site and play it in an empty stadium.

What you mean that won't go over so well? Hmm... maybe then MLB should let the fans in the stands know what is going on...

by JMedwick on Oct 26, 2006 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tigers pitch Rogers?

I think the most likely scenario is that tonight is rained out and Suppan wins tomorrow, resulting in a 3-1 series, which makes Saturday's game a must-win for the Tigers. Rogers would be available on regular rest. In which case, I like the idea of pitching Weaver or Reyes against Rogers and keeping Carp on long rest for Game 6 against anyone else.

Of course, a Carp v. Rogers Game 5 would be a tremendous matchup.

by JDOhio on Oct 26, 2006 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rogers at Busch

Kenny Rogers in front of the StL fans? Wow. That will be, um, rowdy.

youneverknow

by meat on Oct 26, 2006 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rowdy?

or...

a gamble?

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

snicker snort

Hardly a gamble if you're down 3-1, though.

The only thing better than watching him get removed from Game 2 would be watching him walk to the dugout in the second inning of game 5 at Busch III after 1 and 1/3 innings of crapping the bed.

But I won't count my money while I'm sitting at the table. Game 4 first.

youneverknow

by meat on Oct 26, 2006 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Suppan wins...

everything gets A LOT easier.

a clean-handed and self-concious Kenny Rogers sets out to prove everyone wrong and pump his fist a few more times. He tries to be too fine, he tries to dominate with his fastball that isn't truly that impressive... think Jason Marquis.

In my mind this sets him up for an ERA correction. Sure, he's got a 23-inning scorless inning run going, a great story for sure, but sooner or later this has to normalize. His ERA was a good-but-not-great 3.84 this season. Just to make things nice and square I've got him down for 5 innings/ 12 runs, just to make sure the postseason matches the regular one.

even if The Tigers find a way to win behind Rogers you've got to like the chances of the Cardinals winning one game either by...
A). teeing off against a suddenly fastball-less Verlander
B). riding Carpenters big right arm to victory.

In any case, a Suppan win sounds great.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

let's have soup go out and do his thing tonight or tomorrow or whenever, keep in mind, if this game goes to tomorrow, rogers could start on regular rest, which would be a pretty good matchup, either way i think we stand a very good chance of seeing rogers in st. louis especially if they are down 3-1, which is something leyland didn't want to have to do if you remember back to before the series started, either way our pitching options are much better than theirs

get up baby, get up

by jimmybaseball42 on Oct 26, 2006 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard that Leyland said

he was sticking with the rotation. Of course, if game 5 becomes an elimination game for them, he may change his mind.

by ArkansasTravs on Oct 26, 2006 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

gammons on espn radio with dan patrick

they are going to talk about game 4 and the rain out, momentum, maybe big mac's absence, etc.

all within the next hour.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

big mac?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 26, 2006 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's a maybe

though may have had that phrase stuck in my head since I was reading another article at the time of posting this comment.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this just in

wilson k'd 4 times during the rainout

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

only 4?

he is having a good postseason. Actually, he did swing the ball well in game 3. Hope it's a trend rather than an aberration.

by chuckb on Oct 26, 2006 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is like....

...saying it does no good to bench Enc, he will still swing at balls 10 inches off the plate from his seat on the pine.

by BigJawnMize on Oct 26, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MLB and Fox

I think the real problem we are facing now is caused by the illimination of double-headers in the MLB season. With just ONE double header a month MLB could shorten the season by a week. I don't know how they expect to NOT run into this type of weather problems when you are scheduling the Biggest Series of the year...In late October into NOVEMBER..and have teams like the Cards and Tigers involved, or any other cold weather locations. And if you think FOX doesn't have a huge influence over when and what is done in the World Series...you are just kidding yourself.
I would love to see one thing changed for next years World Series that might also help out....A DAY GAME....I can't believe that kids all over the country are missing the absolute joy...of being able to watch a World Series Game at SCHOOL...remember that?... I sure do...the nuns at Holy Redeemer in Webster would stop class and wheel in the old black and white TV to watch the Series every year...even is the Cards were not in it... ahh...those were the days!!

by Timbo02 on Oct 26, 2006 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

tv at school

the only time the tv was on in my 12 years of school, aside from watching videos of Forrest Gump every year (or was it every few years?), was for UK during March Madness, the week of 9/11, and when the president came to town.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you needed...

Catholic school bro....the nuns loved watching baseball inbetween the beatings.....

by Timbo02 on Oct 26, 2006 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh...

Nothing wrong with my public school education.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you misunderstood me...

No ...I meant to watch baseball....I have NO doubt that the Kentucky public school system gave you a great education.

by Timbo02 on Oct 26, 2006 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We watched March Madness

When I was in high school my world history teacher let us watch the NCAA tournament during class some. I think he was a the girls basketball coach so that would be why. The Cardinals were never particularly good while I was there in the mid 90's though.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alright, brothers

(and sisters)

I'm officially off to the game! I've got a 3 hour drive full of rain and construction ahead of me. Hopefully there's actually a game waiting to be played when I arrive.

the beard is going strong. Keep the faith.

http://www.myplayoffbeard.com

by effin fisk on Oct 26, 2006 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

have a safe trip

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder

if effin has given any thought to the fact that the google-placed ads on his site tend to be for things like hair removal.

by DCGreg on Oct 26, 2006 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a hair removal tip

Cards win game 4 tonight and game 5 tomorrow. Then we can all shave.

by chuckb on Oct 26, 2006 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Pick me out a winner, Bobby."

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gone are the days

of comparing you to Brad Thompson. Well grown sir, well grown.

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

" There goes .....

Roy Hobbs....the best that ever was"

by Timbo02 on Oct 26, 2006 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

travel day and fox v. mother nature

i've heard there has been talk of adding a travel day if the series goes back to detroit because of the possibility of this big colorado storm settling over the midwest this weekend, which would potentially push game 6 to sunday, which it may end up being alreday

in related news, fox has filed a lawsuit against mother nature, citing their huge loss in ratings for a series that they didn't want to begin with accentuated by the possibly huge delar

get up baby, get up

by jimmybaseball42 on Oct 26, 2006 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Man, I just want to PLAY THE GAMES

We're doing well. I hate these big breaks.

by sdrone on Oct 26, 2006 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You hear

all this talk about Fox not wanting a "small-market" series. That there pissed that it isn't a subway series. Whatever. Isn't it already better than the past two years cause there will be a game 5? Don't owners, TV, whoever make more money the more games that are played? What am I missing? If it goes to 7 games, (hope not) aren't they making almost double what they did from the year before? (or 3/7ths more) I mean you can almost fit the last two WS into a 7 games series. What am I missing?

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The assumption

That assumes that the ratings for the World Series are higher than whatever else they would be showing at the time. I'm certain they'd rather have it go to game 7 than not (unless game 7 would now throw off their scheduled resumption of new episodes of House and everything else).

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I'm saying

is that Fox shouldn't be all that upset. Ratings don't mean that they didn't sell that commercial for 1 million. (4-games = 4mil 7-games=7mil) That the Cardinals ownership want all three of their games played.(2gms=2mil 3gms=3mil) That if it goes to 7 games, Fox made almost as much in this series, than the past two.(Houston,Whitesox are large market?) I just don't see the why the f-fox crowd is so pissed. WHo cares who called the game. It was raining.

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but

ad rates for following years are influenced by past ratings; therefore, crappy ratings, as you noted, don't hurt FOX this year, but will make it harder to charge as much as they want next year.

by salvomania on Oct 26, 2006 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They don't sell ads for games until they are

scheduled. If a game six or seven is forced during the weekend, they have a harder time calling the ad agencies to schedule the game. Thus, they really wanted Friday to be a travel day, so they would know, one way or another, whether there would be a game six or not. With a prime time Friday game, they can't determine this.

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BUt

the point I'm trying to make is that regardless of a small market or whatever, they are still going to get a game 5 that they didn't last year or the year before that. Which in turn, generates more revenue. I can see the point that Fox didn't want this game at first. (Thought it was going to be a sweep PLUS two small market teams) However, now that there is going to be at least one more game, they automatically generate more money through ads, regardless of the price of the ad. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_television_ratings

Ratings showed a brief renassaince in 04, but have been on a steady decline since 85. So it's not like ad agencies have no idea what's going to happen. Plus the further into the series you go, the more ratings seem to go up. (Historically) Look at 2001 and there you have a large market team (Yankees) right after Sept. 11th with Mr. November and all that jazz, and still couldn't generate that much more ratings. (until game 7)

My point is that Fox should be counting their lucky stars that they get a game 5. There should be no complaints from them about small market teams.

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another article

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_weisman/10/23/ws.ratings/

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're correct

On XM Kevin Kennedy mentioned FOX would much rather have a 6 or 7 game series with whatever teams than a sweep with a large market team. It makes sense since they make just as money selling more ads at perhaps cheaper rates for a small-market matchup than they do 4 games with a large market team.

by enoscountry on Oct 26, 2006 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anybody in St.L to update us on the weather?

by toris34 on Oct 26, 2006 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

stadium cam!

I'll bring back the stadium cam from yesterday.

This certainly makes it look more playable:

full size

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice shot, actually.

I would mind a bigger version to use as a background.

by sdrone on Oct 26, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just click on full size ;)

The '06 Cardinals- The New '73 Mets? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 26, 2006 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duh! Thanks. hahahh

n/t

by sdrone on Oct 26, 2006 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

k king

wait...is that preston wilson inside the stadium? it is.

and i think he just struck out.

by busch league on Oct 26, 2006 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the strikeout king

My grandpa would always call Reggie Sanders the Strikeout King whenever he'd come to bat.

It would always be like, "Shucks, here comes the Strikeout King again." It's funnier if you imagine it in the accent of someone who grew up in Red Bud, IL.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 26, 2006 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i kid, i kid....

i kid because i care. p-dub has had some big hits for us. granted, they are sandwiched around an avelanche of k's, but still....

my dad says the same thing about jed.

they are stuck in the "good old days" when striking out 100 times in a season was a sin. now-a-days, that's a pretty good contact hitter if you can limit your k's to 100.

by busch league on Oct 26, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a trained meteorologist...

just an amateur, but I don't see how we're going to get rained out tonight. The only storm I see that could threaten us is the one that's just now reaching into western Kansas, and it doesn't appear to be moving fast enough to get into St. Louis by tonight.

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Oct 26, 2006 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yea!!!!

by sreese on Oct 26, 2006 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any updates on tonight's game?

I keep hearing it will be rained out, but when I check weather.com I don't see much rain in the area.

The '06 Cardinals- The New '73 Mets? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 26, 2006 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gotta scan out further

the 2000 mile radar showed the storm that hit last night, while the 300 and 600 didn't at 4:00.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 26, 2006 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate math

A storm leaves the train station 300 miles from St. Louis. At a speed of 20mph, how long until the storm reaches St. Louis?

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unless the storm way to the west

picks up steam:

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 26, 2006 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That storm

is supposed to hit us (OK) tonight! Game anybody?

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait! The leading edge of the storm must be

500 miles away. Game time is like 4.5 hours away (5:30 PST) and the game shouldn't go longer than 3.5 hours (without extra frames), which puts the end of the game 8 hours a way.

So even if that storm is tracking straight to Bush stadium at 60 miles per hour (an absurdly fast rate), we should be able to play ball!

Right!?

The '06 Cardinals- The New '73 Mets? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 26, 2006 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if u check out the hourly forcast

on weather.com...it seems as though the game is definately gonna get in

I'm a weatehr buff (i know, its kinda sad) and it seems to me that the same way the storm slowed over St. Louis yesterday is the same thing happening now in Kansas with the other storm

I susupect that storm to hit St. Louis late tonighy...by late i mean after midnight

by Matty I on Oct 26, 2006 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fantastic!..

Then LETS PLAY BALL!!!

by Timbo02 on Oct 26, 2006 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should be happy

that the game tonight will be a go, but sad... because of the rainout last night I missed my one chance to see game 4 in person, so now I am out of luck..

by JMedwick on Oct 26, 2006 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rome...

He said go ahead and give us the title with a 2-1 lead. Fine by me...

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 4:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I had the radio on last night - he's been

relegated to ESPN late night. hahahahah

by sdrone on Oct 26, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

PHENOMINAL

by EBroglio on Oct 26, 2006 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

GO to SI.com.....

and you'll see not ONE mention of the World Series on the front page...pathetic...

by Timbo02 on Oct 26, 2006 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LET'S PLAY BALL!!!!!!

This just out from the National Weather Service:

Tonight...patchy light rain or drizzle this evening...then occasional rain developing after midnight. Low in the upper 40s. Southeast wind around 10 mph in the evening shifting to the northeast after midnight. Chance of measurable precipitation 90 percent.

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ATH

They suggested starting camps in late January.

A better idea, as someone suggested, is schedule a DH a month, that knocks out at least a week of the season.

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One twinbill a month...

sounds like a much better plan. The only reason there should be January camps is for World Baseball Classic play (and even then, it should just be national team camps.)

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Oct 26, 2006 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely

I wouldn't mind it at all.

With regards to seasons going late, what teams share a stadium with a team in another sport?

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

pass out tickets

Hey all,

I don't know if this is a taboo subject or anything... but what with the likelihood of mediocre weather tonight and all, and my having been told that people did such things for game 3, it seems plausible that there might be some people leaving early tonight. Does anybody know anything about what procedures there are for re-entry if someone were able to get an early departure to give up their ticket stub? Or if the guys at the gate would just be kind to someone who asked really really nicely?

by LilEck on Oct 26, 2006 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

From BP's Clay Davenport..

..who actually is a meteorologist:

"Since I wrote that, clouds have developed over eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. They haven't produced rain yet (12:45 p.m. ET), but they are growing rapidly and they are moving very, very fast to the northeast. They've advanced 250 km in two hours; that's a little over 60 mph, partly as a result of moving the system and partly due to it growing. Moving that quickly would normally mean less rain for any given spot, but the shape--an oblong, almost linear cloud deck, with the long axis going and direction of motion going just south of St. Louis--suggests that whoever does get rain is going to get it steadily for a decent peiod of time.

This cloud system, even though it isn't raining yet, is like a bullet pointed right at St. Louis. Davenport (150 miles north) looks clear for the rest of the day, as does maybe Memphis (150 miles south). St. Louis is right at the northern edge of the approaching mass."

by salvomania on Oct 26, 2006 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, Debbie Downer

Wah-wahhhhhhh jk ;-)

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Oct 26, 2006 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sloppy conditions

Can you imagine playing an OF as soggy and wet as Busch will be this evening? I expect slippin' and slidin' and a lot of extrabase "hits" that would be fielded easily in normal consditons.

I hope nobody gets hurt.

by madridbend on Oct 26, 2006 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hear....

that the new Busch outfield drains REALLY well though...so perhaps it won't be as bad as it might seem it should be...

by Timbo02 on Oct 26, 2006 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

same line-up as yesterday

according to tony's press conference

by Matty I on Oct 26, 2006 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

which is...

Eckstein ss
Duncan rf
Albert 1b
Edmonds cf
Rolen 3b
Wilson lf
Molina c
Miles 2b
Suppan p

by Matty I on Oct 26, 2006 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Leyland

Todd Jones: The reason we signed him is that he walks fewer batters than any reliever in baseball.

hmmmmm

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Leyland: pre-game press conf

Rotation will stay the same, regardless of rainout last night, tonight, or whatever.

Bonderman, then back to Verlander, Rogers, and Robertson. And regardless of how the series stands. [BS alert! No way he doesn't start Rogers if they are down 1-3!]

one why he hasn't used his bench more: "Well, look at our bench! There's not alot of household names on there."

Lineup tonight is the same as last night

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 5:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

i forgot they were doing that for the postseason

Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Evident the Wash, Mr. Rogers

by cardsfan84 on Oct 26, 2006 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he will

I'm not sure why, but he deliberately put Rogers in the 2 hole in the rotation so that he pitches twice in Detroit. I don't think that will change. Remember, if they go down 3-1, they still have to win 3 in a row. If he thinks their pitching will be better w/ Verlander in 5 in St. Louis and Rogers in game 6 in Detroit, he'll stick w/ that even if it runs the risk of not getting a 2nd start out of Rogers. It doesn't matter if you lose 4-1, 4-2, or 4-3. He'll do what he thinks best to win the series.

by chuckb on Oct 26, 2006 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, you're probably right

I bow to your superior wisdom!

I was mostly just wanting 45,400 Cards fans to help him remember to wash his hands!

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

which is

Granderson cf
Monroe lf
Guillen ss
Ordonez rf
Casey 1b
Rodriguez c
Polanco 2b
Inge 3b
Bonderman

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I normally don't...

get bent out of shape by post-season awards, but can someone please explain to me how Ryan Howard beats out Pujols for best hitter in the NL? Pujols has him in OBP, Slugging, BA, and RC...

Even more egregiously Derek Jeter was deemed a better hitter in 2006 than Travis Hafner. The RC spread for those two was 10.77 to 7.58

Laughable.

This Hank Aaron Award is a joke.

by guayzimi on Oct 26, 2006 5:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Three letters

MVP

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

There's an argument (which I don't agree with) that Howard was better than Pujols because of the big counting stats, HR and RBI, and pay no attention to the BA difference. Looking at the whole package, I say Pujols was clearly the best hitter in the National League.

But in the AL, Jeter over Mauer or Ortiz has no explanation except, New York loves him, and he used to win championships.

PS: The Hank Aaron award matters for one news cycle, and then will be forgotten. World Championships, on the other hand, are history. If Albert earns his ring, I think he'll be happy.

by madridbend on Oct 26, 2006 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Albert already has a couple Hank Aaron trophies

anyway

by Valatan on Oct 26, 2006 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm hungry for some soup!

hey fellow cardinal fans. this is my first comment to any blog in my life. i've been enjoying this site since i discovered it in June. like most of you, i'm one of the privileged few to be born a cardinal fan. i went through the good, bad and ugly of this 2006 team. living in birmingham, al today, i feel fortunate having seen the cards live twice this year. once in atlanta when reyes and JK were shelled with a few hrs. another time in denver when carpenter pitched a gem and AP drove in the game's only run. scotty had a pretty awesome play at third as well. many of us took shelter behind the seats that night due to rain. as pujols began to bat, I made my way through several people toward the aisle. the usher told me that it was too late to go down the aisle to my seat due to the at-bat going on at the time (despite the fact that only a handful of people were in their seat). i looked back at the usher with my b/b shirt and told him, "but this is pujols batting." just after he gave me a "i guess that will be ok" look, i bent down and watched AP smack one just over the right field fence. sometimes you just get that feeling he is going to hit one. and i have the same feeling he will hit another one (or two) tonight! let's have some soup tonight and win #3!

"You can't worry if it's cold; you can't worry if it's hot; you only worry if you get sick. Because then if you don't get well, you die." Joaquin Andujar

by Red State Redbird on Oct 26, 2006 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this is what weather geeks (no offense) talk like!

.discussion... surface warm front has moved across most the cwa today and now stetches from surface low across north-central oklahoma to near quincy illinois. Aloft...closed low/trof digging southeast toward the lower mississippi river valley with +80kt mid level jet rounding the base of the trof and aiding in cyclogenesis. Along and north of the warm frontal boundary drizzle and some patchy light rain has been observered this afternoon with mostly dry conditions south. Nam and ruc hint at a west-east orientated band of upward vertical motion forming along the i-70 corridor this evening while gfs waits until closer to midnight. Given no significant forcing appears in the models until closer to midnight will keep patchy wording for st. Louis metro area eastward. Seeing as cwa remains in warm conveyor belt certainly can't rule out a light rain shower or period of drizzle this evening in downtown st. Louis...but appears most of the evening will be dry.

What's it mean?

THERE'S A SUPPAN FRONT MOVING IN, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CARDINALS RUNS AND A DROUGHT OF TIGER BASERUNNERS

LET'S PLAY BALL!!!!

"Feel my ears, Mike!" -- Jack Buck

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 26, 2006 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I must

tip my cap to you for your outright enthusiasm for this ball club. Your witty and always fun to read posts are what make me go "You know what? I can believe in this team!" Thank you for your uplifting comments and I hope someday you can touch McGee again.

Here Comes the King! Here Comes the Big #1! Budweiser Beer the King is Second to None!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 26, 2006 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs