FanPost

Hot Soup

In the open game thread yesterday, lboros noted that Jeff "Home Run Threat" Suppan may not make the postseason rotation, which is true. But should it be? I started to wonder about where Soup stacks up amongst our starting pitchers. It's trivially true that in the second half he's been better than Morris and less flaky than Marquis.  But when I started to look at the comparisons using ESPN's Player Comparison Tool, I noticed that Suppan and Mulder are VERY, VERY close in terms of effectiveness.  To wit:

As of this morning, Mulder has thrown 9 more innings than Soup and faced 20 more batters.  Soup's ERA is 3.52, Mulder's is 3.51.  Soup's allowed 196 hits, Mark has allowed 195.  Soup's Opponent OPS is .775, while Mulder's is .728.  That's mostly accounted for by Mulder's stinginess with homers - his Opponent SLG is .397 to Soup's .436.  Soup's had 16 quality starts, Mulder's had 17. Soup has 101 Ks for a 5.0 K/9, and Mulder has 102 Ks for a 4.8 K/9. Both have a 1.7 K/BB ratio.  Soup has walked 59 batters, Mulder 60. Soup's WHIP is 1.41, Mulder's is 1.33.

Overall, Mulder's got the slight edge, I think--he just keeps the ball down and in the park more.  But those numbers are amazingly close. So why isn't Soup's spot on the postseason rotation assured, since he's essentially been a Mark Mulder clone?  I don't have a good answer, but I think part of it has to do with the fact that he's...well...kinda boring.  He doesn't punch guys out a lot (and when he does, it's not with 98 MPH high heat), he doesn't do Carpenter-style domination, nor does he have crazy flake-out Marquis Moments, nor does he change his facial hair like Matthew.   He just pitches effectively.

To his Mulderesque effectiveness, let'a add one more thing: his performance in the playoffs last year (minus all World Series baserunning gaffes).  He pitched the clincher against LA, if I remember right, and he outdueled Roger Clemens in Game 7 of the NLCS. He's never going to be mistaken for an ace, but Jeff Suppan should start getting the credit he deserves. And that should begin with reserving him a spot next to Carp and Mulder on the postseason rotation.