I can take another pitcher tonight, and I might start over on the Yankees tonight also - it would also be neat to look at 2004 to see if this is a trend. My one problem is I don't know if there's any specific indicator to look for to know when to yank a pitcher (I'd rather pull too early than too late, especially with the Cards' bullpen).

On the whole, MattyMo seems to get victimized by being yanked too early - the bullpen has been awful finishing his inning, or the full inning after he leaves the game.

82.2 innings pitched
78 hits
31 ER
5 HR
16 BB

3.38 ERA
1.14 WHIP

04/19 - perfect 6th (bullpen in 7th, 1 hit)
04/24 - 5th, 1 IP, 1 hit (bullpen in 6th, 2 hits, 2 walks, ER)
04/30 - perfect 6th (bullpen in 7th, 2 hit, 2 walk, ER)

05/05 - perfect 7th (bullpen in 8th, 3 hit, 2 walk, 2 ER)
05/10 - 6th, 0 IP, 2 hit, 2 ER (1 IP, 1 walk, 2 hit, 2 ER) - (bullpen, 1 walk, 2 hit, 2 ER)
05/15 - 8th, 0.2 IP, 2 hit, 1 ER (1 IP, 3 hit, 1 ER) (bullpen perfect)
05/21 - 7th, 1 IP, 1 hit, (bullpen perfect)
05/27 - perfect 7th (bullpen perfect)

06/01 - perfect 6th, (bullpen 1 hit)
06/06 - perfect 9th
06/12 - 6th, 1 walk, 1 hit (bullpen 2 hit, 1 ER)
06/18 - 8th, 1 hit (bullpen 2 hit)
06/23 - 4th, 0 IP, 1 hit (3rd, 4 hit, 2 ER) (bullpen 1 walk, 1 hit)

Ok:

10.2 IP, 8  hits, 1 walk,  3 ER
13   IP, 13 hits, 2 walks, 5 ER

BULLPEN -
10.1 IP, 16 hits, 8 walks, 7 ER

80   IP, 70 hits, 15 walks, 28 ER, 3.15 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
69.2 IP, 65 hits, 14 walks, 26 ER, 3.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

BULLPEN -
10.1 IP, 16 hits, 8 walks, 7 ER
6.10 ERA, 2.32 WHIP

Morris's unfinished innings have cost him 0.23 ERA and 0.08 WHIP, but his final inning puts him on par with his normal production, unlike Suppan. The bullpen has been AWFUL in the inning following his exit his starts.

Matty Mo has only 3 unfinished innings, 2 of which had his only earned runs of his final inning's worked. He's had 6 perfect inning finishes in 13 starts, as opposed to Suppan's 1 perfect inning to 15 starts (Suppan also had 6 unfinished innings, allowing 11 runs total).

104.2 IP
94 hits
35 ER
8 HR
29 BB

3.01 ERA
1.18 WHIP

04/05 - perfect 7th
04/10 - 0.1 IP - 4 hit, 3 ER ---- 1 IP - 8 hit, 2 walk, 7 ER, 1 HR
04/16 - 0.2 IP - 1 hit, 2 walk, 3 ER --- 1 IP same
04/21 - 9th, 1 hit, 1 walk
04/27 - 0.2 IP - 1 hit

05/02 - 1 IP - 3 hit, 1 walk, 1 ER, 1 HR
05/07 - 7th, 1 IP, 1 walk
05/12 - 1 IP, 2 hit
05/18 - 1 IP, 3 hit, 2 walk, 2 ER, 1 HR
05/23 - 1 IP, 2 hit
05/29 - perfect 7th

06/03 - 1 IP - 1 hit
06/08 - 1 IP - 4 hit, 2 walk, 3 ER, 1 HR
06/14 - perfect 9th
06/20 - 0.0 IP -- 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 ER, 1 HR (2 hit, 1 walk, 1 ER)

12.2 IP, 23 hits, 10 walks, 13 ER, 4 HR
16   IP, 28 hits, 12 walks, 17 ER, 5 HR

92   IP, 71 hits, 19 BB, 22 ER, 4 HR, 2.15 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
88.2 IP, 66 hits, 17 BB, 18 ER, 3 HR, 1.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

4 unfinished innings, 3 perfect innings, and that awful 04/10 game.

His unfinished innings cost him 0.86 ERA and 0.20 WHIP.

His final 1 inning per start costs him 1.18 ERA and 0.24 WHIP.

Ouch.

94.2 IP
105 hits
50 ER
11 HR
28 BB

4.75 ERA
1.40 WHIP

04/08 - perfect 6th
04/13 - 5th, 1 IP, 5 hits, 4 ER, 1 HR
04/18 - perfect 8th
04/23 - 10th, 1 IP, 1 hit
04/29 - 7th, 1 IP, 1 walk, 1 hit

05/04 - perfect 7th
05/09 - 7th, 1 IP, 2 hit
05/14 - 6th, 0 IP, 3 hit, 1 walk, 4 ER - perfect 5th
05/20 - 6th 0.2 perfect, 1.0 perfect
05/25 - 2 hit, HR, 1 ER
05/31 - 8th, 0.0, 1 hit, 1.0 2 hit

06/05 - 4th, 0.0, 1 walk, 1 hit --- 1.0 - 3 hit, 1 walk, 1 ER
06/11 - perfect 6th
06/17 - perfect 7th
06/22 - perfect 4th

7 perfect, 4 unfinished

11.2 IP, 16 hits, 3 walks, 2 HR, 9  ER, 6.94 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
15   IP, 19 hits, 3 walks, 2 HR, 10 ER, 6.00 ERA, 1.47 WHIP

His final inning only costs him 0.23 ERA and 0.01 WHIP, his final inning unfinished or otherwise costs him 0.30 ERA and 0.03 WHIP.

Not as large a difference as Suppan or Carpenter.

90 IP
89 hits
41 ER
12 HR
38 BB

4.10 ERA
1.41 WHIP

04/06 - 1 IP, 2 hits
04/12 - 0.1 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk --- 1 IP - 2 hit, 1 walk
04/17 - perfect 8th
04/22 - 0.2 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 4 ER, - 1 IP same
04/28 - 1 IP, 1 hit

05/03 - 0.0 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER --- 1.0 IP same
05/08 - 1.0 IP, 2 hit, 2 ER, 1 HR
05/13 - 1.0 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 1 HR
05/19 - 1.0 IP, 1 hit, 2 walk, 1 ER
05/24 - 1.0 IP, 1 hit, 2 walk
05/30 - 1.0 IP, 2 hit, 2 walk, 2 ER

06/04 - 0.2 IP, 3 hit, 1 ER,      1 IP same
06/10 - 1 IP - 1 hit
06/15 - 1 IP - 2 hit, 1 walk, 2 ER
06/21 - 0.1 IP, 2 hit, 2 walk, 1 ER --- 1 IP same

5 unfinished, 1 perfect

12 IP, 22 hits, 12 walks, 15 ER, 2 HR, 11.25 ERA, 2.83 WHIP
15 IP, 23 hits, 13 walks, 15 ER, 2 HR,  9.00 ERA, 2.4 WHIP

78 IP, 67 hits, 26 BB, 26 ER, 10 HR, 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
75 IP, 66 hits, 25 BB, 26 ER, 10 HR, 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

1.10 ERA and 0.22 WHIP difference if you take out his final inning (finished or unfinished) or 0.98 ERA and 0.20 WHIP difference if you take out his final 1.0 IP of each start.

Suppan, Carpenter, and Marquis have large differences, Morris and Mulder don't.

457.1 IP
468 hits
199 ER
48 HR
139 BB

3.92 ERA
1.33 WHIP

_

57.2 IP
92 hits
34 BB
52 ER
11 HR

8.12 ERA
2.18 WHIP

___

399.2 IP
376 hits
147 ER
37 HR
105 BB

3.31 ERA
1.20 WHIP

Failure To Pull Pitcher costs -

0.61 ERA
0.13 WHIP
_________

The difference is having 5 Mike Mussina's or 5 Cliff Lee's (Cleveland). One could also say 5 Matt Morris-es (although Matt has a lower WHIP.
__________

Mike Mussina
100.1 IP
108 hits
24 BB

3.95 ERA
1.32 WHIP

_____

Cliff Lee
90.2 IP
87 hits
26 BB

3.28 ERA
1.25 WHIP

Matt Morris
82.2 IP
78 hits
16 BB

3.38 ERA
1.14 WHIP

I'm going to possibly check some other pitchers around the league to see if this is just a STL thing, or not.

Also, need to figure out a way to see a bad inning coming. Pitch counts, high stress innings, etc?

Neat numbers here...

4- 8-2004 = 5th, 0   IP, 2 hit, 2 ER, (1 IP, 2 hit, 1 walk, 2 ER)
4-13-2005 = 7th, 1   IP, 1 hit
4-20-2004 = 6th, 1   IP, 1 walk
4-25-2004 = 8th, 0.2 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 1 HR (1 IP same)
5- 1-2004 = 8th, 1   IP, 2 hit
5- 6-2004 = perfect 6th
5-13-2004 = 4th, 0.1 IP, 2 hit, 1 ER (1 IP, 3 hit, 2 ER, 1 HR)
5-19-2004 = perfect 6th
5-27-2004 = 6th, 1   IP, 1 walk, 1 hit, 1 ER
6- 1-2004 = 8th, 0.0 IP, 1 hit (1 IP, 2 hit, 1 walk)
6- 6-2004 = perfect 7th
6-11-2004 = 6th, 1   IP, 2 hit
6-17-2004 = 5th, 1   IP, 4 hit, 2 ER
6-23-2004 = 5th, 1   IP, 3 hit, 2 walk, 3 ER
6-28-2004 = perfect 8th
7- 4-2004 = 8th, 0.1 IP, 1 walk (1 IP, 2 walk)
7-10-2004 = 6th, 1   IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 1 HR
7-18-2004 = 7th, 0.0 IP, 3 hit, 1 ER (1 IP, same)
7-23-2004 = 7th, 1   IP, 3 hits, 3 ER
7-28-2004 = 5th, 0.2 IP, 3 hits, 2 walks, 5 ER, 1 HR (1 IP same)
8- 4-2004 = 5th, 1   IP, 1 hit, 1 walk
8-11-2004 = 9th, 0   IP, 1 hit (1 IP same)
8-16-2004 = 7th, 0.1 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 2 ER (1 IP, 3 hit, 1 walk, 3 ER, 1 HR)
8-21-2004 = 6th, 1   IP, 2 hit, 1 walk, 2 ER
8-27-2004 = 7th, 0.1 IP, 2 hit (1 IP same)
9- 2-2004 = 7th, 0.0 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER (1 IP, 2 hit, 1 ER)
9- 7-2004 = 5th, 1   IP, 2 hit
9-14-2004 = 4th, 0.2 IP, 3 hit, 2 walk (1 IP, 5 hit, 2 walk)
9-19-2004 = 4th, 1   IP, 3 hit, 2 walk, 3 ER
9-24-2004 = 8th, 0.2 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER (1 IP same)
9-29-2004 == 7th, 1.0 IP, 2 hit, 1 walk, 2 ER

31 games, 188 IP, 192 hits, 25 HR, 87 ER, 65 BB, 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

22 IP, 48 hit, 15 walk, 31 ER, 3 HR, 12.68 ERA, 2.86 WHIP
31 IP, 55 hit, 18 walk, 33 ER, 5 HR,  9.58 ERA, 2.35 WHIP

166 IP, 144 hit, 50 BB, 56 ER, 22 HR, 3.04 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
157 IP, 137 hit, 47 BB, 54 ER, 20 HR, 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

As you can see, Jeff Suppan in 2004, minus his final innings (full 1 IP or unfinished inning) would have had a 3.04 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Much better than his 4.16 ERA and  1.37 WHIP (1.08 ERA and 0.20 WHIP difference!).

If you could find an indicator to know when to pull a guy before an eminent meltdown, you could find some good pitchers hidden by their stats from bad innings. No one looks twice at 4.16 ERA Suppan, but 3.04 ERA Suppan?

1.83 ERA Carpenter vs. 3.01 ERA Carpenter?

I didn't think of...

The Cardinals have the -best- bullpen in the majors, easily, at the moment. What benefits for the starters would be gained by pulling them earlier, and what costs to the bullpen by bringing them in earlier?