FanPost

Nats fans respond to Marquis-for-Wilkerson idea

On the Nationals SBNation blog, "Federal Baseball," they've taken note of the discussions here re: a Marquis/Brad Wilkerson swap:

http://www.federalbaseball.com/story/2005/11/15/132632/85

Nats bloggers are lukewarm on this deal (they want more in return for Wilkerson), but it seems the Nats organization is down on Wilkerson and want to deal him -- they think he strikes out too much. He does whiff quite a bit (154 Ks/season the last 4 years). We all like his OBP line, but does the K issue concern anyone, if the idea is to bat him #2 b/w Eck and Albert?

Anyway, here's the heart of Federal Baseball's assessment:

"As both Chris and the el Birdos blog point out, Wilkerson is more valuable straight-up. Even in a miserable season racked by injuries, fatigue, and something just short of guerilla warfare with Jose 'Four Bats' Guillen, Wilkerson posted a .351 on-base percentage. To use an established stathead modifier for something not star-quality, yet totally under-appreciated, that's 'tasty.' He is as versatile as he is solid defensively, and his true power potential is probably somewhere in between 'powerful' (2004) and 'mere modicum' (2005). Wilkerson's not better than second- or third-level in terms of star potential; he might make an all-star team one of these years based on a strong first half, but he'll never even enter the suburb of the discussion of elite players. Furthermore, his historical comps have aged rather poorly.... Nevertheless, Wilkerson's a valuable player; he could easily start in a contender's lineup.

"As for Marquis, he finished in strong fashion (remember when, faced with the prospect of demotion to long relief, he threw a 'surprise' shut-out at RFK around Labor Day?) and ended up with a 4.13 ERA, which isn't bad at all. Furthermore, Marquis is only 27, yet seemingly more mature than when he was pitching in my hometown of Richmond; word was that he struggled with, shall we say, the 'mental aspects of pitching.' Nevertheless, his strikeout rate bottomed out a bit past the old 4.5 per nine innings danger zone, and his Fielding Independent Pitching ERA of 4.83 was obviously rather steep. In addition, while RFK's power repression qualities will cut into this vulnerability somewhat, Marquis has shown some propensity to serve up homers---and remember that he'd be making anywhere from 40-60% of his starts on the road.

"Thus, as a question of pure 'value,' the Nationals would likely be making a bad trade. While Marquis would fill a hole in the rotation (perhaps exacerbated by Loaiza's likely departure), and while Wilkerson became rather notorious at RFK for his ability to strike out on near-command, Wilkerson's really the more valuable player. Given the two players' best seasons, Wilkerson would hold more value; given the two players' worst seasons, and Wilkerson's ability to get on-base would ensure that he still provided more value."

*
One obstacle to making this trade happen is that the Nats are pretty distracted -- they're still w/out ownership or a lease for their new stadium, mostly b/c Selig and Co. are twiddling their thumbs; and GM Jim Bowden is busy interviewing for the Boston GM job. Meanwhile they're making head-scratching moves like signing Marlon Anderson to a 2-year, $1.85 million contract...