Viva El Birdos Cardinals Projections 2014

2014 VEB Projections Results: Jaime Garcia

18

For once, VEB comes out on the pessimistic side of projections. We have the lowest K/9, highest BB/9, and the 2nd highest ERA (after ZiPS). We seem to have a more pessimistic view (and, given his...

*2014 VEB Projections Results: Joe Kelly

88

Again, all the pitcher projections are actually pretty close to one another, even with the differences in Innings Pitched projections. That makes sense, given Joe Kelly's questionable role (though...

2014 VEB Projections Results: Michael Wacha

44

It's really surprising to me that VEB isn't the most optimistic projection for Michael Wacha. With the emotional aspect of it, given his playoff success, I would have figured that the VEB fans...

*2014 VEB Projections Results: Shelby Miller

229

So small sample size and all of that, but it seems like VEB's projections for pitchers track the professional projections systems much closer than the hitter projections. K/9 are similar, BB/9 are...

*2014 VEB Projections Results: Lance Lynn

428

All of the projections are... remarkably similar for Lance Lynn. VEB is a little bit optimistic on wins, but other than that, everything is almost spot on with each other. As usual, PECOTA's the...

2014 VEB Projections Results: Adam Wainwright

36

As expected with a player with a lot of experience, there isn't very much variance in the projections for Adam Wainwright. What is interesting to me is how different projections are similar in...

2014 VEB Projections Results: Jhonny Peralta

280

For a player with so much variance in his performance year-to-year, there actually isn't a ton of difference in his projections. His average ranges from .253-.276, his OBP ranges from .313-.333,...

*2014 VEB Projection Results: Oscar Taveras

247

I'm actually astounded at how VEB is not overly optimistic on Oscar Taveras, at least in comparison with the projections sytems. Sure, we still come out on top in terms of OPS and wOBA, but not by...

*2014 VEB Projections Results: Peter Bourjos

122

Hey, all of the projections are really, really close to each other! The spread in OPS only ranges for .689 to .738 and the spread in wOBA only ranges from .305 to .321. For the first time, ZiPS...

*2014 VEB Projections Results: Jon Jay

208

Hey, VEB isn't the most optimistic projection! Indeed, Steamer (who, again, is the most optimistic of the projections), comes in with a .745 OPS and .329 wOBA projection while the VEB collective...

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2014 VEB Projections Results: Kolten Wong

47

It's interesting to look at the projection systems on this one, because there looks to be two different camps: Oliver and PECOTA are both really pessimistic on Wong, seeing OPSes around .670 and...

2014 VEB Projections Results: Mark Ellis

32

Mark Ellis is an interesting case for VEB, because most of don't know that much about him. I've never watched more than 30-40 PAs of his over a season, and I have no idea how good or bad or young...

2014 VEB Projections Results: Matt Holliday

39

Given that Holliday is one of the most seasoned players that we projected, it shouldn't be a surprised that there is a relatively small spread among the projection systems. VEB is more optimistic,...

*2014 Projections Results: Matt Carpenter

260

We're really bullish on Matt Carpenter, you guys. It makes a lot of sense as to why. He's coming off a gigantic 2013 where he was the best second basemen in baseball. Many of us have been...

Knowledge Nest: SLG vs. ISO & Craig's Power Outage

26

Allen Craig's power-hitting fell off significantly from 2012 to 2013, turning the Cardinals cleanup man into a singles hitter.

*2014 Projections Results: Matt Adams

337

There is actually very little variance in the rate stats predicted for Matt Adams. VEB projected an average of .275, while the others projected between .265 and .270. VEB projected an OBP of...

*2014 VEB Projection Results: Allen Craig

139

I'll give you one guess as to what stat VEB most outguessed the projections systems. It wasn't PAs, where VEB was below two of them (though Oliver projects 600 for all players). It wasn't runs or...

*2014 VEB Projection Results: Yadier Molina

239

It's probably not a surprise that VEB is more bullish on Yadier Molina than the rest of the projection systems. VEB's projected OPS of .820 is 35 points higher than Steamer's .785, and VEB's...

*2014 VEB Community Projections: Joe Kelly

211

Give or take about a strikeout every nine innings and a couple of percentage points of ground balls, and Joe Kelly is basically Jake Westbrook. They are groundball pitchers (Kelly's 51.4% to...

*2014 VEB Community Projections: Shelby Miller

334

Fun fact: I could make the claim "Shelby Miller literally only throws four-seam fastballs" and not be that far from the truth! Indeed, Shelby throws his four-seamer a whopping 73.6% of the time,...

*2014 VEB Community Projections: Jaime Garcia

237

I... really have no idea how much Jaime Garcia is going to pitch in 2014. After having surgery on a torn labrum back in May, he is, by all accounts, healthy and painless going into Spring...

*2014 VEB Community Projections: Michael Wacha

321

For a player with only 170.2 professional innings under his belt, Michael Wacha feels remarkably known. By all means, he has height, poise, a can-do demeanor, and a signature offspeed pitch to...

*2014 VEB Community Projections: Lance Lynn

232

Lance Lynn is a very good, above-average pitcher. In just over 400 innings pitched in his career, he's been worth 6.5 WAR. With 9.12 strikeouts per nine innings, he strikes out a lot of batters...

2014 VEB Community Projections: Adam Wainwright

204

Two years removed from Tommy John surgery, at the age of 31, Adam Wainwright just had the best year of his career. While his K% of 22.9% hovered more or less around the average of his last three...

2014 VEB Community Projections: Jhonny Peralta

182

I remember auto-drafting Jhonny Peralta in a fantasy league back in 2005, when he hit .292/.366/.520 with 24 HR and marveling at how great those numbers were. I also remember drafting him with a...

2014 VEB Community Projections: Oscar Taveras

187

Oscar Taveras is another player hard to project. It's hardly a guarantee that he sees time in the Majors at all this year, and he's coming off an injury-marred stint in AAA where he only took 186...

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