Was it father-son day at the ballpark yesterday? In the bottom of the 4th or 5th, Lohse popped up to 2nd and Fontenot caught the ball standing next to Derrek Lee. It looked like it was "Take your son to work day."

There have been a lot of surprises for the Cards the first 5 weeks or so of this season, not the least of which is their record and the fact that they're hovering around 1st place. Certainly, Wellemeyer, Looper, and Lohse have all been surprisingly good, though it appears that Wellemeyer may be coming down to Earth. Three of his last 4 starts have been below average. Few of us expected Looper to pitch well this year but we didn't expect it last either and on May 17 of last year, his ERA was 2.29. Hopefully he can keep his ERA around its current level. Even if it increased half a run, it would still be much better than most of us expected. Lohse has been excellent as well, yesterday's 4th inning notwithstanding.

Wainwright's been positively fantastic -- better than I and most expected from him but I'm not sure I'd call his start surprising. The 2nd half of last year he emerged as one of the better starters in the NL. He's begun this year as one of the BEST starters in the NL.

Kyle McClellan -- need I say more?

The lack of homers has been somewhat surprising as well. So far, we have only 23 homers in 31 games. This is a pace for 120 homers for the season. Last year's version hit 141 homers and I, and I think most of us, expected more homers from this year's bunch. Pujols has just 6 -- not awful, but on pace for just 31. Duncan has the same # of homers as Molina and Skip Schumaker. Glaus has only 1. Maybe as the weather warms up, the Cards will be able to pick up their pace a little. Also, could our low homer total be a result from so many games at home? Busch III is notorious for surpressing homers and we've played a surprising 20 of 31 games at home so far this year. Maybe as the Cards play more games in smaller parks, the homer totals will increase.

Albert Pujols has reached base in every game this season -- a streak, of course, of 31 games. Again, I'm not sure if this is surprising but it's a hell of a feat, nonetheless. In 2004, Barry Bonds had an OBP of .609 and an OPS of 1.421. He walked an unbelievable 232 times that season but his longest streak of reaching base was 29 games. Pujols is walking in some pretty high cotton right now. Can there be any doubt as to who the best player in the game is -- 6 homers or not?

The defense, IMO, has been quite a pleasant surprise. No one expected Troy Glaus to be Rolen but he's been solid. In fact, he's first in the NL in RZR. There was some concern about Ankiel's ability to handle CF but he's been terrific. It's been 3-4 years since he handled CF as well as Ankiel's handled it so far this year, yesterday's misplay notwithstanding. Everyone's entitled to one, right? Like Glaus, Ankiel is first in the NL in RZR among CF's. There was concern that Izturis was no longer a solid SS and quite a bit of angst among the faithful about his numerous errors this spring. He's been very good as well and is 2nd in the NL in RZR. Schumaker's been very good everywhere he's played. The bottom line is that the new guys are all performing, defensively, as well as or, in most cases, better than their predecessors.

The biggest surprise IMO, however, is our walk differential. Our hitters are first in baseball in receiving walks -- 150. The team OBP is 2nd in the majors to the Cubs. From the mound, our pitchers have yielded the 4th fewest walks in the majors -- just 92. That means that we've had a net gain of 58 walks so far this season -- almost 2 per game. However, the surprises don't stop there.

Schumaker is seeing 1/2 a pitch more per PA than last year and Ankiel's P/PA is up .38 over last year. Still, many of the Cardinal regulars are actually seeing FEWER pitches per PA than last year. Pujols, Kennedy, Duncan, Molina have actually seen their P/PA fall from last year. Duncan's is down about the same amount that Skip's has gone up but he's walking at a higher rate. How about that? Fewer P/PA but a higher BB rate. Pujols, too, is walking more often despite actually seeing fewer pitches per PA.

To me, this says 1 of two things. The first possibility is that we've seen a lot worse pitching so far this year than we saw last year -- pitchers who walk batters more often than the average pitcher. If this is the case, our hitters' lives are going to get considerably more difficult over the course of the next 5 months.

The other possibility is that our hitters have a lot better pitch recognition than they did last year. They're hitting the pitches they should hit (as opposed to taking them or fouling them off) and taking the pitches they should take. Hopefully, this is the correct answer but I haven't explored the first possibilty at all. It may be that some combination of both is true. If this possibility is correct, obviously, our hitters deserve a lot of credit. Hal McRae, though, would deserve a ton of credit as well. He's taken a lot of heat from Cards' fans over the last year and a half or so but the entire team can't have better pitch recognition w/o some help from the hitting coach. One or two people maybe, and I'd bet he's had a lot of influence on Skip and Ludwick but, for an entire team to have better pitch recognition, he's got to have had a ton of influence on them and deserves credit.

Finally, it wouldn’t be a Sunday if I didn’t piss people off, so here goes:

The fact that LaRussa extended Wainwright too long vs. the Astros last week had an effect on Friday’s start vs. the Cubs. Wainer was removed after 85 pitches w/ the Cards up 1 in the 7th Friday. Tony almost even admitted to being careful w/ Wainwright after throwing the 2nd most pitches in the majors this year. If we’re going to compete in the NL Central, we’re going to have to win games against the Cubs and, normally, you’d want your best pitcher in the game w/ a 1 run lead in the 7th. Wainer’s FB was still in the low 90’s and his pitch count wasn’t too high. He had just given up a single but they weren’t exactly hitting lasers off him. Tony pulled him to be careful w/ the pitch count after having him toss 126 vs. the Astros.

There are 2 problems w/ this. The first is that the pitch count in the Cubs game becomes irrelevant after having thrown so many vs. the Astros. We know that there is a relationship between pitching WHEN TIRED and arm injuries. There is no relationship between THROWING OFTEN or the total number of pitches thrown and arm injuries. Keeping Wainwright at 85 can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube after he threw 126 in the previous game. It may seem counterintuitive, but that’s what we know, empirically about pitch counts and arm injuries. See Baseball Between the Numbers if you need to for reference.

Second, the Cubs are a tougher team than the Astros. Tony felt forced into pulling Wainwright against the better team after leaving him in there against the weaker team. Does this make sense? Tony knew he’d be facing the Cubs in his next start and, if he believes that a pitcher needs to throw fewer pitches in the subsequent start after throwing a lot in the previous start, it makes no sense to risk his having to be pulled early against the Cubs. If anything, it would make more sense, though still be wrong empirically, to save him for the Cubs start by having him throw 85 against the Astros. In 2007, the Cards had no pitcher finish in the top 30 in Pitcher Abuse Points. In 2006, Jeff Suppan was 23rd, and Carp was 38th. In 2005, Marquis, strangely finished 9th, and Carp was 39th. In ’04, Woody Williams finished 23rd. Carp wasn’t in the top 60. In 2003, the year Tony had no bullpen whatsoever and, IMO, overextended Woody and Matt Morris to compensate for the loss of Izzy and turmoil in the pen, Woody finished 7th in baseball in PAP. Right now, Wainwright is 2nd. It’s early, but it’s problematic. Having Wainer go 85 the start after throwing 125 isn’t going to solve the problem either, regardless of the fact that he felt fine after the Houston game. It is a big deal.

The Cards, so far this year, are 4-1 in rubber games -- losing only to the Giants at home 2 sundays ago. They're also 2-2 on Sundays -- so that makes today's game another kind of rubber game. Let's get a win for the home team as we finish off this homestand.

um . . . . . . our closer's broken. we need a new one.

no, really.

the LOB curse, alive and well so far in the new month . . . . . 2-1 cardinals after 3 innings. it'll take more than that, fellahs.

There’s been some discussion, and for the life of me I can’t find it, about Wainwright’s workload so far this year. I know that on at least 1 occasion, I’ve expressed some concern about the number of pitches that Tony’s having the kid throw. He’s thrown 5 starts and has thrown more than 100 pitches in the 3 of the 5 – not , in and of itself, horrendous. However, against Milwaukee 10 days ago he threw 115 pitches and yesterday against the Astros he threw 126. Just for reference, those 126 pitches were more than any other pitcher in the majors has thrown in a game so far this year. It’s also Wainwright’s career high in pitches.

 In my view, we’re starting to see a pattern w/ LaRussa. Wainwright has emerged as the de facto ace of the staff and Tony’s going to ride his horse as much as possible. Because Wellemeyer, Looper, Pineiro and Lohse are basically 6 inning pitchers max, he’s concerned (rightfully so) about the load he’s placing on the bullpen. AZ and I had a pretty good back and forth on McClellan’s and Izzy’s workload just a couple of days ago. Therefore, Wainwright becomes the ace that Tony’s going to get as many innings as possible from. The fact is that he trusts Wainer probably more than any other pitcher on the staff, Izzy included, at this point and, regardless of Wainer’s pitch count, Tony wants him in the game.

Yesterday, Tony left the wagonmaker in to pitch the 9th inning of a tie game despite the fact that he had already thrown 102 pitches entering the inning. AW was due to hit 2nd in the bottom half of the ninth. It’s reasonable to have Wainer start that inning. 102 pitches is not an outrageous number. However, as the inning drew on, it became pretty obvious that Wainer was just going on guts and fumes as he tried to get the Astros’ middle of the order out. That point is important – AW wasn’t facing Loretta, Ausmus, and the pitcher’s spot. It was Matsui, Tejada, and Berkman, the last of whom had already hit 2 bombs off Wainer.

He got the first 2 out and faced Berkman having thrown 110 pitches. It was clear that he didn’t have his best stuff and this was definitely a tough PA for Adam. He pitched carefully to Berkman and faced Carlos Lee w/ Berkman on first, having thrown 115 pitches. Franklin was just now getting warm in the pen. I would argue that at this point Franklin, Izzy or McClellan should’ve been in the game. I understand trying to get your starter through the inning when he’s due up in the next half inning if it’s the 6th. In the 9th, it makes no sense whatsoever. You’re not likely to need a lot of innings out of your relievers at this point in the game – it’s not like you need Franklin to pitch 2-3 innings – he’s going 1 inning max. Have him get the 3rd out and pinch-hit or, if you just have to now keep him in the game, double-switch Miles into the game. Kennedy was the final out in the bottom of the 8th.

Wainwright is our best pitcher, but is he better on his 116th pitch (or his 120th which began the Pence PA) than Franklin is on his first? The difference is probably negligible at best but even if Wainer is slightly better, I DON’T CARE!!! What’s most important is the health of our 26 year old ace. Franklin should have been in the game to pitch to Lee or, at least, Hunter Pence w/ 2 on and 2 out. AW gutted out that PA by throwing slider after slider – 7 in a row – and finally getting him to chase a third one out of the zone for the K.

Here’s what we know, definitively, about pitching injuries: there’s no correlation between pitching often and the likelihood of injury but there is a correlation between pitching when tired and the likelihood of injury. Wainer was tired in the 9th. This is indisputable. Does that mean that he’s definitely headed for arm surgery? Of course not and, as many will point out, Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens threw a lot of pitches and never had major arm surgery. These patterns are not guarantees but the correlation is nevertheless significant and one that is worth paying attention to. We know now that Ryan and Clemens were freaks who could throw it 120 to 130 times or more in the mid-90’s and not get hurt. Maybe we’ll look back in 10 years and say that Wainer was a freak as well but we don’t know that today. One 126 pitch start isn’t going to kill the kid (probably) but there is a trend developing. Two of his 5 starts this year would go down as 2 of the 3 longest of his career and as long as this trend continues, Tony’s playing with fire.

Baseball Prospectus calculates a stat called pitcher abuse points as a way of measuring which pitchers are throwing when tired. Any start less than 100 pitches receives 0 points but the "abuse" a pitcher suffers from increases exponentially with every pitch thrown above 100 in a start. It’s not a big deal to throw 105 pitches. 115 is getting up there but AW was at 126 yesterday. As I said earlier, it is the most pitches thrown by any pitcher in baseball so far this year. He received 17,576 pitcher abuse points yesterday bringing his season total to 21294 – the most in baseball so far this year. Only 3 pitchers in baseball – Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, and (gasp!) Yovani Gallardo – are averaging more pitches per start than Wainwright so far this year. Message to Tony: the marginal cost of having Wainwright, as opposed to Franklin, pitch to Lee and Pence is MUCH GREATER than the marginal benefit that was gained. If there was any benefit whatsoever, it was negligible, but Wainer will have to be THE MAN for the next 6 years – not just for those 2 PA’s.

I also wanted to piggy-back on Red Baron’s thread from yesterday about the number of runners the Cards are leaving on base. When it first came up a few days ago, I didn’t think much about it but, again, a trend seems to be emerging. It’s still a little early but I was curious about why it’s occurring and wanted to see if we could see if it was as bad as it seems and if it is likely to continue. The Cards stranded another 8 baserunners in yesterday’s game.

First of all, you’d think that team LOB stats would be pretty easy to find, but they’re not. I think I was able to figure out a way to calculate it but I really thought I’d just be able to pull up a site and it would be there. Alas, it was not to be. First of all, would you believe that, prior to yesterday’s game, the Cards were 2nd to Boston in number of times on base so far this season yet we’re only 11th in runs scored. Still, I’ll bet that most of us didn’t know we were in the top half in baseball in runs scored.

In our 24 games, prior to yesterday, we had had 240 (10 per game) runners reach base who failed to score – by far the most in the big leagues. Only 10 others have had more than 200 baserunners fail to score this year. The good news, of course, is that we’re getting a lot of runners on base. Our OBP is surprisingly the highest in the NL. One would think that if we continue getting runners on base we’ll eventually be able to push them across, right? Maybe, maybe not.

At first I thought the problem was poor performance w/ runners on base. Nope. Our BA w/ runners in scoring position is .257 – not tremendous but it’s above the league average. Our OBP w/ RISP is a whopping .376. That’s pretty damned good! Our slash stats are .284/.390/.403 w/ runners on base. W/ 2 outs and RISP, they’re .252/.383/.374. The BA and OBP numbers are ok but I think we’re starting to get to the crux of the problem.

The Cards are 22nd in baseball in homers and haven’t hit one in their last 8 games. The Cards last homered more than a week ago, on Friday, April, 18 against the Giants when both Duncan and Pujols went deep. The Cards are 14th in slugging and 19th in ISO. As you can see from the numbers above (thanks to AZ for helping us easily calculate and understand the significance of ISO) the Cards ISO w/ 2 outs and RISP is .122 – not good. W/ RISP regardless of the number of outs their ISO is .114. W/ runners on base, regardless of the base/out situation, their ISO is .119. A season ISO of .119 would put the Cards among the bottom 7 or 8 teams in baseball. The problem isn’t that the Cards are having trouble getting runners on base or even that they’re performing particularly poorly w/ runners on base. The problem is that the Cards are having a hard time leaving runners on base b/c their lack of speed and power is forcing them into playing station-to-station baseball. We need 3 hits in an inning to score and it’s tough to score a lot of runs that way.

We saw this pattern emerge yesterday. The Cards were getting runners on base but having a tough time pushing them across yet the Astros were able to tie the game despite the fact that Wainwright was mowing them down most of the game. 3 swings of the bat negated all the work the Cards were doing on the offensive end. Fortunately, the Cards were able to get the 2 hits and a walk we needed in the 9th to win the game but, as long as the Cards are unable to get the ball out of the yard, we’re going to continue to leave runners on base.

Again, the good news is that it should get a little better. Ankiel’s in a slump. If we’ve learned anything about Ankiel as a hitter it’s that he’s streaky as hell. He’ll be back and pounding homers at some point. Ludwick’s cooled off. Glaus is hitting the ball OK – he leads the majors w/ 11 doubles but has no homers. Still, he’s gotta be good for 25-30, right? Duncan has plenty of power and seems to be seeing the ball well. He’ll hit 25-30 if he’s healthy for the entire season and, God knows, Pujols will hit his share.

Still, it cannot go unnoticed that 4 of the 9 spots in the order, the Cards have basically 0 power. Kennedy/Miles, Izturis/Ryan, Skip, and the pitchers spot will probably COMBINE for about 10-12 homers all year long. That puts a pretty heavy burden on the others to produce. Another spot – Yadi’s – has only a little more than the others. Yadi can hit the ball into the bleachers but he has only 23 homers FOR HIS CAREER – in more than 1500 PA’s. Don’t expect him to be the savior. The bottom line is that this LOB problem may persist.

There is one lineup change I’d like to see. It may help to alleviate the power burden somewhat. It’s a lineup that we’ve seen just once this year -- an OF of Duncan, Ankiel, and Ludwick. I know that lots of us have been clamoring for more of Barton and I also know that Skip has an OBP of .406, a SLG of .446 and an ISO of .133. Still, he has 4 career homers and putting Ludwick in there in Skip’s place might help bring across a few more runs. The big problem with this approach would be that Tony would then be tempted to put Ryan, Izturis, Miles or Kennedy in the leadoff spot despite the fact that they all belong in either the 7 or 9 hole.

He’d never do this, but he could try Ludwick or Duncan in the leadoff spot. Ludwick has a .419 OBP this year (though it’s just .327 for his career) and Duncan’s OBP’s are .406 and .360 respectively. Their power makes them unconventional leadoff hitters. Skippy fits the profile better, ironically, b/c he lacks power but it makes no sense to play Skip over Ludwick b/c you want someone WITHOUT POWER in the leadoff spot! Run that notion through your brain one more time. Go with the guy w/ less power and put the guy w/ more power on the bench b/c the guy with less power is a better fit to the conventional wisdom of what a leadoff hitter should look like. The bottom line is that Tony needs to get the best hitters in the lineup and Ludwick, despite Skip’s hot start, is a better hitter than Skip. Our lineup would look strange and those who insist on doing things the way they’ve always been done just b/c that’s the way they’ve always been done will ask questions, scratch their heads and criticize but so what? We’re already batting the pitcher 8th! Why not stick our best hitters in the lineup and put the best OBP guys at the top of the lineup. Hell, put Glaus in the leadoff spot if you’re afraid of too many solo homers in the top of the 1st!

Anyway, back to reality. It’s the rubber game of the series – Lohse v. Backe. I absolutely detest that guy – Backe. Houstonians love him. You know why? B/c he’s short and spunky/scrappy and from the Houston area (Galveston). He’s the David Eckstein of hometown pitchers. He blows but those Astros’ fans just love him – one more reason to hate those guys (and I do!!!!!!). The good news is that Backe’s road ERA, in more than 190 career IP is 5.54. Though he’s only yielded 2 ER in 6 IP in new Busch, he gave up 28 H and 15 ER in 14.1 IP in old Busch. Let’s hope we can break that homerless streak and send him to an early shower. Isn’t it about time we brought back 10-run Sundays?

Sanchez	Looper
0-1, 6.00	3-0, 2.70

I suppose the best thing about Pineiro’s start yesterday was that he was able to keep the ball down – getting 14 ground balls to 9 fly balls w/ 3 line drives. He was hit harder in his first start, of course, managing just 8 ground balls to 8 fly balls and 5 line drives. Aside from that, though, it wasn’t a well-pitched game. Once again, he had no K’s. He did have just one walk, but for the season, 10 IP, he has yet to strike anyone out – not a good sign. Out of the 157 pitches he’s thrown in 2 games, he’s only had 9 swing-and-misses. (Wellemeyer’s averaging 10.5 per start so far this year) According to fangraphs, his velocity isn’t lacking – he’s averaging 90.6 in his 2 starts – and he was at 90.8 last year. It must be location that’s a problem, though he only has 1 BB so far. Hopefully, he’ll round into form as he pitches. He really didn’t have much of a spring. Tony doesn’t seem to be worried. I’ll agree that it’s still a little early to be concerned. From the other side, the Giants can’t hit but that Lincecum’s pretty good.

This just in – Albert Pujols, too, is pretty good. He may be off to his best start yet, also. He has 75 PA’s so far and has reached base via walk or hit in 37 of them – a .493 OBP. His career SLG is .620 and this year he’s off to a .644 start. His OPS+ right now is 203. It’s almost gone unnoticed, also, considering Ankiel’s start, and Skip’s and Ludwick’s and Wellemeyer’s, etc. Other players have given us so many pleasant surprises that Albert’s great start hasn’t really appeared that great.

Albert’s reached base in every game this season – even the one in which he didn’t start and he had just 1 PA (intentional walk). He strikes me as, paradoxically, more patient and yet more aggressive at the plate. He seems to have reached a Bondsian grasp of the strike zone, to which his 16 BB’s and 5 K’s attest. But he also seems to be more aggressively attacking pitches to hit early in the count.

Last season, Albert swung at only 83 of the 353 first-pitch strikes he saw – 23.5%. This was an uncharacteristically low number for him. This season he has swung at 13 of 37 first pitch strikes –35% -- more in line w/ his ’06 and ’05 numbers. Here are his career totals:

YEAR	SWINGS	STRIKES	%
2001	177	363	48%
2002	166	370	44%
2003	180	370	48%
2004	172	393	43%
2005	141	367	38%
2006	120	323	37%
2007	83	353	24%
2008	13	37	35%

It stands to reason that the number of strikes Pujols has seen has fallen throughout his career. He’s become one of the most feared hitters in the game and pitchers don’t want to just serve them up. It also stands to reason that he would be swinging at a lower % of first-pitch strikes as well. He’s become a more patient hitter, as demonstrated by his increasing walk rate. Last year, however, there was a big difference in his approach. He let 270 first-pitch strikes go by w/o pulling the trigger. He also had the worst (by his standards) season of his career. This year he seems to be back on track. He’s looking for his pitch to hit and, when he sees it, he’s hitting it. When they don’t give him the pitch he wants, he’s willing to take the walk.

Just to get a glimpse of how well he’s beginning this season, his OBP is far and away the highest of his career – 54 points over his previous career high in 2003. He’s on a pace for 144 BB’s and only 45 K’s. Those truly are Bondsian numbers. I’m not sure he can continue this pace throughout the season. The other hitters in the lineup are likely to slump and he may put more pressure on himself to produce, thus swinging at bad pitches. I, for one, hope he can keep it up. He doesn’t seem to be swinging at any bad pitches and when he sees one he likes, he’s drilling it.

Isn’t it time, considering all we’ve learned about the importance of on-base percentage over the last several years, that we stop saying things like, "Pujols was 0 for 3 w/ a walk yesterday?" It’s time we started calling that 1 for 4. The second game of the year Pujols was 2 for 2 and walked 3 times. That’s 5 for 5 in my book. Anybody gets on base 5 times in a game needs to be recognized for it…period. He had a 4-5 game against Houston (2 HR’s) and a 4-6 game in SF. He had 1 hit and 5 BB’s in the 3 game series against the Nats earlier in the season – a sweep, by the way. Most would say he was 1-7 in that series. I would say he was 6-12. There’s a huge difference in perception and the 6-12 number is, IMO, a better indicator of his importance to the offense in that series. The Cards didn’t win 3 DESPITE Pujols going 1-7. They swept the Nats partly BECAUSE he went 6-12.

Looper goes for the Cards today against a guy I want to see pitch – Jonathan Sanchez. Looper’s been pretty good so far (2.70 ERA) but those 5 BB’s last time out concern me. He still has yet to give up a homer this year though (knock on wood) and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he’s going to be OK. Some teams may single him to death but he’ll have more good starts than bad if he doesn’t give up the homers. It’s not as if he’s facing the ’27 Yankees today either. We haven’t lost a series yet. Let’s see that trend continue today.

Todd Wellemeyer – never really been a fan. Well, that’s not exactly true. He’s got pretty good stuff but he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher. Still, they’re two pretty good pitches – a good, hard fastball and a tight slider. I’ve just always seen him as a better fit for the bullpen – b/c of his lack of a solid third pitch and the fact that he has historically had such a problem w/ walks. His career BB/9 is 5.49 and last year w/ the Cards it was more than 4 per 9 IP.

I am, however, starting to wonder if he’s not becoming a different pitcher. He’s still got the two solid pitches but yesterday was his third solid starter out of 3 this year. I know, his stats don’t look that great in the boxscore b/c things did unravel in the 6th but he entered the inning having given up 1 hit and 2 BB’s. He ended up striking out 7 in 6 IP. We are still only talking about 3 starts but it’s a pretty good string he’s putting together nonetheless.

Toward the end of spring training, there was some discussion (you may have noticed it, not sure) about who would fill the final two spots in the rotation. Yesterday’s closer – Anthony Reyes – was left out of the rotation in favor of Brad Thompson (who has since been replaced by today’s starter) and Wellemeyer. At the time, Duncan said he was most impressed w/ Wellemeyer’s ability to "control pitch counts" – implying a reduction in walks. I excoriated him on a number of occasions about this seemingly ridiculous statement b/c, at the time, Wellemeyer had walked 9 batters in 12 IP. He finished the spring w/ 11 BB and 10 K in 20 IP – not exactly Cy Young numbers. Still, he’s begun the regular season now w/ 7 BB and 20 K in 18 IP – a distinct improvement.

It would be pretty surprising if Wellemeyer were able to maintain this sort of improvement throughout the entire season. He’ll be 30 in August – not the age one generally peaks – and has 155 career BB in 254 career IP over parts of 6 seasons. This guy was released by the Royals last year. Why the improvement? It’s all luck, isn’t it?

The short answer is – no, it’s not just luck. He does have really good stuff but that’s not new. What is new is his ability to throw strikes. His BB rate, as shown above, is becoming more and more respectable. Yesterday he threw 60 of his 93 pitches for strikes – 64.5 %. For the year, he’s thrown 175 of his 271 pitches for strikes – 64.5 %. This is a huge improvement for Wellemeyer. Last year as a Cardinal he threw 63 % of his pitches for strikes and overall, including his time w/ the Royals, he threw 62% of his pitches for strikes. His strike percentages from 2003-2006 were 59.2, 57.1, 59.5, and 58.7, respectively. I’m not sure why he’s become much more adept at throwing strikes but the improvement is undeniable, even for doubters like me, and it just might bode well for his ability to remain a solid member of our rotation.

Though he’s a two-pitch pitcher, his stuff is really good. His ability to miss bats may be the best in the rotation, Wainwright included. Last year, 14.1 % of Wellemeyer’s strikes and 8.8 % of the pitches he threw were swinging strikes. Wainwright’s percentages were 12.6 % and 7.8 %. In fact, no Cardinal starter other than Chris Carpenter in the last several years has had a higher percentage of swing-and-misses than Todd Wellemeyer. In fairness, Wellemeyer did have 21 relief appearances to 11 starts last year but he still had more IP as a starter than as a reliever. This guy has good stuff, misses bats, and, increasingly, is throwing strikes. That can’t be bad.

I’m not completely sold yet as we are just talking about 18 IP this year and the 6th inning implosion does cause us to wonder if he’s ever going to be able to put together more than 5 IP. Last year, only twice did he pitch as many as 6 IP and never got an out in the 7th as a starter. He did go 7 IP in his 2nd start this year but he gave up 2 big back-to-back jacks from Berkman and Lee in the 7th. Entering the 6th yesterday he had thrown 70 pitches – a pretty good number after 5 and then the wheels came off. He gave up homers to the pitcher and something called a Bowker, he walked Jose Castillo, gave up hits to Molina and Fred Lewis, and got a line-drive out from Randy Winn. His numbers so far this year after 76 pitches aren’t good – 5-12 w/ 2 BB’s and 3 HR’s. It’s a horrendously small sample size but fits what we’ve known about him – that, aside from his trouble throwing strikes in the past, he has trouble pitching past 5 innings. His career numbers are pretty good after 75 pitches but it’s hard to know what to make of that stat – any time he’s pitched over 75 pitches, he’s been pitching very well.

Let’s say that he has turned a corner w/ regard to his ability to throw strikes. The one issue w/ his being a starter, then, is his ability to pitch 6+ innings as 4-5 will carve the bullpen to pieces over a long season. Does he run into trouble b/c he runs out of gas or b/c hitters are seeing him for the 3rd time and they’re exposing his lack of a solid third pitch. It would seem to me (and I’m certainly no pitching expert) that the former is better than the latter. If it is a question of stamina, being out there and throwing pitches will help to build that stamina. If the problem is that hitters are getting a read on him after seeing him twice, that’s going to be a big problem if he can’t improve his changeup. Anyway, I’m starting to become a believer. Let’s hope he can keep it up.

There are a couple of other things I’d like to discuss and the first relates to much of yesterday’s discussion re: the Cardinal OF’s. I’m linking the baron’s Saturday post but it spilled over into the game threads. As I’ve said a few times in the last couple of times, I’m surprised w/ the frustration that many have shown with Chris Duncan. Some of us have argued for more Barton and some of us argue for more Skip. Some don’t like Skip much and some want to see more Ludwick. It occurred to me that the problem right now is two-fold: 1 – all of our OF’s are playing pretty well right now and we can only play 3 of the 5; 2 – all of them are inherently flawed in some way that lends them to criticism.

For example, Duncan has started to put together a pretty good career w/ a .356 OBP and a SLG of .520. His career OPS+ is 124 – about what Carlos Lee’s is. We also know, however, that his defense is horrible. He’s basically a 1B/DH playing LF. We also know that he can be vulnerable to left-handed pitchers.

Skip can play all 3 defensive positions and has begun this year w/ a .368 OBP out of the leadoff spot before failing to reach base in 3 PA’s yesterday. However, he has little power and little base-stealing ability. Therefore, offensively he’s very limited.

Ludwick has power and can play all 3 positions but will be 30 in July and, as a righty, has been unable to hit lefties throughout his career. Barton is young and has speed and some pop but Tony seems to believe his defense, like Duncan’s, limits him to LF. He’s never really been seen by scouts as anything more than a 4th OF. Even Ankiel is flawed. He has tremendous power and the athleticism to play CF but has very few major league PA’s on which to judge him. As hot as he’s begun the year, his OBP is still just .333 and he’ll be 29 the day after Ludwick turns 30.

It’s reasonable to want one to play at the expense of another as they all have distinct strengths and weaknesses and as long as they’re all playing well, Tony’s got a nice problem to have. It seems to me that Ankiel and Duncan have to play more than the others, as they provide more to the offense than the others seem to be capable of. That’s not a knock on the others but those two simply have more power than the others and Duncan supplements his w/ a solid OBP. Still, Ludwick had a 178 OPS+ before yesterday’s game when he went 1 for 2 w/ a big homer. Until someone plays his way OUT of the lineup, it’s going to be difficult for Tony to decide and, it seems to me, difficult to criticize the decision.

I’d like to see more of Barton, also, but w/ the way the others are hitting, it’s reasonable to play Ludwick, Skip, or Duncan against a right-handed pitcher. It’s not necessarily a lack of faith in the young guy or a belief that he can’t hit righties. He’s trying to put together the best lineup he can and right now he’s got 5 choices for 3 positions. I guess he could sit Albert, put Duncan at 1B and start 3 others in the OF. That’d allow him to play 4 OF’s but I’d rather Albert be in the lineup.

I do have to say that after vociferously defending Duncan, I feel somewhat vindicated by his game yesterday – 3 for 5 w/ a BB, a 2B, and a HR. Even when he’s not hitting for power, he does know the strike zone and get on base via walks and we know the power will be there. It hasn’t disappeared and it won’t be that long before he’s able to make something happen w/ his bat. Maybe yesterday jump-started his season.

The last thing I’m going to discuss is in regards to Aaron Miles’ 10th inning bunt yesterday. It appeared as though it was going to be for naught when Izturis struck out, bringing Duncan to the plate w/ 2 outs after Ludwick was intentionally walked. Duncan was able to get the game-winning hit. After the K, I ranted "I hate sac bunts. I hate sac bunts. I hate sac bunts." After settling down w/ a couple of pops and a 10th inning victory, I would like to clarify one thing – "I hate sac bunts!!!!!!!!!!!" My rantings notwithstanding, Tony’s decision in the 10th was, apparently, the correct one.

According to Tom Tango’s The Book, bunting w/ runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out reduces the run expectancy from 1.573 runs to 1.467 runs. In other words, teams who bunt in those situations cost themselves about 1/10th of a run by doing so. However, in the top of the 10th in a tie game, that bunt increases the team’s win expectancy from 69.8% to 71.3% -- not a huge increase, I’ll grant you, but it does increase the likelihood of winning. The numbers from fangraphs show the same thing -- that the Giants’ likelihood of winning went from 30.2% to 28.4% with the bunt (meaning that the Cards’ chances went from 69.8% to 71.6%). So, Tony’s move was the correct one. Sorry, Tony.

That said, and I couldn’t watch the game as I was treated to Fox’s endless rain delay bullshit around this time, I assume in this situation that the Giants, expecting the bunt, were charging with their 1st and 3rd basemen while their SS went to cover 3B and their 2B went to cover 1B. This would have left the entire middle of the field undefended and made a double-play nearly impossible. If Miles had pulled the ‘ol butcher-boy play – faking the bunt and swinging away, as long as he kept it on the ground he would’ve stayed out of the DP and had a great chance of reaching base himself. This would have, of course, created a bases-loaded, no out situation for Izturis. That would’ve increased our likelihood of winning to 83.2%. Is it a gamble? Maybe but w/ the 1st and 3rd basemen charging, a bad bunt gets the lead runner and possibly a double play. The butcher-boy play may have been less of a gamble, with a higher payoff, than the bunt. Because the bunt worked, however, (by getting the runners over) Tony’s move was the right one and my rants should have been directed towards Izturis’ strikeout and not the sac bunt.

It’ll be another tough one today. Pineiro throws his first game of the season against Lincecum. I’d expect to see Barton, Ankiel and either Skip or Ludwick. Someone will probably curse LaRussa – "bleeping, bleeping Tony, aren’t you ever going to give Duncan a chance to hit lefties?!!!!!! He hit a homer and had the game-winning hit yesterday!!!!!!" They’ll be right, of course. I guess it’s too bad none of them can play 2B and SS.

Recently, Derek Goold and Joe Strauss at the p-d posted their ideas of who will be in the opening-day starting lineup for the Cards. You can find them here and here .

What’s interesting about both lineups is that they both have Skip Schumaker as the leadoff hitter, playing RF. To me, Skip has always been this year’s So Taguchi – the guy who can play any OF position, pinch-hit, maybe pinch-run, very little power, defensive replacement sort of #5 OF. It’s possible that Brian Barton will fill that role on this year’s team and it’s also possible that So, had he remained on this year’s team, would be in the opening-day starting lineup but I find Skip’s inclusion a little surprising.

Set aside the fact that Colby Rasmus has been the team’s best OF this spring, assuming everyone finishes the spring healthy, we have a pretty good idea who the 5 OFs will be on the opening-day roster – Ankiel, Barton, Duncan, Ludwick, and Schumaker. Of the 5, only Ankiel appears to be an every day OF as he appears set to start the year in CF. As we know, Chris Duncan is relegated to LF (and Pujols’ backup) but the other 5 OFs have the ability to play more than 1 of the OF positions – an essential skill considering the fact that none have established themselves as everyday players. That said, both Goold’s and Strauss’ opening-day lineups have Ankiel in CF and Skip in RF. Strauss likes Ludwick to start in LF but Goold likes Barton to start in LF.

Below is a table that shows the number of PAs and games played in each of the OF positions for everyone except Duncan this spring. Duncan’s been hurt and is relegated to LF but the other #s should give us an indicator of where things are headed once the games start counting.

	PAs	RF	CF	LF
Ankiel	61	7	11	0
Barton	54	7	3	7
Ludwick	60	13	3	7
Schumaker	57	5	6	11

We can see that LaRussa seems to be trending toward Ankiel being the everyday CF. This is a big step for someone w/ as little experience playing the OF as he has though he certainly has the arm for it and, I believe, has the athleticism for it as well. Suffice to say, however, there will be some adventures out there as well. Tony clearly has more faith in Ankiel in CF than any of the other OFs on the roster. Tony seems to like Ludwick in RF – perhaps that’s partly b/c Duncan is limited to LF but it’s not too tough to imagine an OF vs. righties w/ Duncan in LF, Ankiel in CF, and Ludwick in RF. It’s the idea of Schumaker being the regular platoon vs. left-handed pitchers that I’m struggling with.

Jeff Francis is set to start opening-day against the home team. He’s a very good left-handed pitcher and our struggles over the last couple of years vs. lefties have been well-documented, not the least of which came exactly two weeks ago. So, of the two right-handed hitters in our OF, one of them will start on opening day. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Duncan will sit. Does this indicate that Duncan will remain strictly a platoon player, only seeing the field against right-handed pitchers? I’m not sure how I feel about that. I’m not altogether opposed to platoons. Quite the contrary, I think they can be very effective if utilized correctly and Duncan, throughout his career, has been a pretty poor hitter vs. lefties,

On the other hand, this is a developmental year and Duncan has exactly 142 PAs against lefties throughout his career. He still has as much power as anyone in our OF and there’s no time like the present to find out if he is a platoon player or someone who can play every day. It’s a little strange to me that Ankiel has become an every day player who won’t sit vs. lefties on the basis of his 76 career PAs against lefties. I know he’s hit them well but we’re talking about 76 career plate appearances, for crying out loud! Sample sizes don’t get much smaller than that! It’s not like Ankiel has established himself as a tremendous CF or as the only OF on our roster who can play the position either.

So then why does Skip get the start against lefties ahead of Duncan? Skip does have better numbers against lefties than Duncan but, again, we’re talking about 41 PAs against major league lefties. His minor league numbers, again, are OK but in ’07, with just 73 PAs, his OPS was just .676 despite a .333 OBP. With Duncan’s power, couldn’t he put up a .676 OPS even if his OBP is considerably lower? Maybe this is just to give him an opportunity to play early in the season and it’s not the sign of a trend.

But maybe it’s LaRussa choosing Skip’s defense in LF over Duncan’s against lefties. That’s not altogether unreasonable considering Duncan’s absolutely horrid defense. Skip’s defensive advantage breaks the tie in their offense…maybe. Still, the difference between one of the better LFs last year (Matt Holliday) and one of the worst (Duncan) was about 14 runs defensively. That’s about a win and a half difference between the very best defensive LFs and the very worst. Last year, about 27% of major-league ABs came against lefties so, if we assume that Skip would be among the best defensive LFs in the game, he would be worth about .38 wins defensively over Chris Duncan in a platoon scenario. Isn’t it worth 2/5 of a win to find out if Duncan can hit lefties consistently? Isn’t it possible that, b/c of Duncan’s power and batting eye, his offense would be worth 2/5 of a win over Skip’s? To me, this is a very strange platoon. Skip offers virtually no power – has 3 career major-league homers – and doesn’t offer a lot in terms of stolen bases either – 4 in his career and a 65% success rate throughout the minors. Duncan’s upside, even against lefties, seems to be much bigger than Skip’s and Skip’s defense, though clearly better, doesn’t seem to provide a significant enough boost to offset Duncan’s offensive upside. That said, it is entirely consistent w/ LaRussa’s preference entering this year of focusing on defense, as evidenced by the Izturis signing.

 

In other matters:

 

• it appears as though Brendan Ryan should be OK for opening day. He is, after all, the backup 3B as well as another backup middle infielder. D’Angelo Jimenez’s chance of making the major league roster just fell to next-to-none.
• and, for those of you who still harbored dreams of Miguel Cabrera joining Albert in our lineup, Detroit has apparently signed him to an 8 year, $153 million contract. According to the report, he would receive just over $11 M this year and then $19 M for the next 7 years. This strikes me, at first glance, as a very good contract for the Tigers. First of all, he’s only 24 and could conceivably become the premier hitter in the AL during the next 8 years. Hell, it might happen this year. Consider the fact that A-Rod is 32 now and set to earn an average of $27.5 M for the next 10 years and Cabrera’s contract seems to be a hell of a bargain. Yes, I know he was fat last year and he’s a terrible 3B defensively. Is A-Rod 45% better than Cabrera? I’d say "NO" – emphatically. The guy can mash and to get him for less than what the Yankees will pay Jeter this year is a pretty good deal. Though it means he’ll likely never be a Cardinal, I wonder if it doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals’ chances of extending Pujols’ contract in 2010.

Happy Easter to all. I hope the Easter Bunny put lots of joy and self-fulfillment in each of your basket and I hope he (do we know the Easter Bunny’s a "he"?) brought all Cards’ fans some extra patience this year. I fear we’ll need it.

after his simulated game yesterday, kyle lohse told the post-dispatch: "My slider has pretty much always been my go-to pitch. I can throw it for a strike at any count, or run it off the plate a little bit. … I did that today." the available numbers back that up. according to josh kalk’s compilations from pitch/FX data, in 2007 lohse threw his slider nearly a third of the time:

	overall	vs RHB	vs LHB
fastball	47	52	43
slider	29	29	30
change	17	13	20
curve	7	6	7

this is far from a complete sample --- neither of lohse’s home ballparks last year (cincinnati and philadelphia) was wired for FX, so these kalkulations (get it?) are based on only 900 or so pitches (about 1/3 of lohse’s overall tosses). the new pitch-type data at fangraphs, which come from a different source (Baseball Info Solutions), cover all 3000 of lohse’s pitches from 2007; they show kyle throwing the slider with slightly less frequency (53 percent FB, 23 percent SL, 18 percent CH, 6 percent CU), but the relative proportions are about the same.

i want to return to josh kalk’s smaller sample for a second, because it shows platoon breakouts. lohse’s tendency to throw the slider in equal proportion to right / left batters is rare. most pitchers feature the slider less often against lefties; that's true even among pitchers who throw a lot of sliders. for example, sliders represent 37 percent of all the pitches john smoltz throws --- but the proportion is 44 percent against righties, only 31 percent vs lefties. jeremy bonderman (also 37 percent overall) threw it 43 percent vs right-handers, 31 percent vs lefties. among lohse's new teammates on the cardinals, ryan franklin throws his slider 22 percent of the time --- 36 percent against right-handers, 7 percent against lefties. for adam wainwright, the proportions are 20 percent overall, 30 percent vs right-handed hitters, 9 percent vs left-handers. the only pitcher i found who had a similar platoon (non)split with respect to the slider was --- ladies, better hang on to your boyfriends --- jason marquis, another frustrating hurler to whom lohse has been compared in the past.

kalk’s numbers also amply illustrate lohse’s statement that the slider is his "go-to" pitch. check out his percentages last year a) when he had 2 strikes on the hitter, and b) when he was ahead in the count:

	overall	2 str (249 pp)	ahead (262 pp)
fastball	47	41	39
slider	29	36	41
change	17	20	18
curve	7	3	6

when he’s ahead in the count (ie, 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2) he throws the slider more than any other pitch; on 2-strike counts (0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2) it runs a close second to the fastball. on the pivotal 2-2 count, he threw the slider as often as the fastball (albeit in a small sample of only 60 pitches).

well, so much for the preliminaries. please give me the following 9 numbers in comma-delimited (no spaces) format for kyle lohse:

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

i’ll share the results on thursday.

Wow! There’s a lot of pressure w/ the conversion to the new format. It’s been a long time coming. It’ll take some getting used to, to be sure, but after my first few glances of it, I like it a lot. I don’t think it’ll take too long for us all to get accustomed to it and I think most of us will like it much better once that happens.

I wanted to begin w/ a welcome to our new #2 starter. It’s hard to believe that Kyle Lohse is actually anybody’s #2, let alone ours, but it’s true. It would be true even w/o the injuries to Pineiro and Clement those injuries make Lohse a welcome addition to the roster. Though he’s not a great starter by any means, I’m pretty astounded that we’re 15 days away from opening day (I really do like some of these new features!) and Lohse still didn’t have a home.

As we all know by now, LB has advocated for Kyle Lohse for some time, including here , here , here and, most notably, here and now, if all goes well, he’ll be starting against the defending NL Champs on April 2. In fact, Duncan and Mozeliak seem to be of the opinion that Lohse will be ready to go on opening day. But how did it come to this? This guy was supposed to be the second best starting pitcher available in an admittedly weak free agent market. How is it that he was still available in mid-March?

First of all, we need to appreciate what a coup it is to get Kyle Lohse on a 1 year, $4.25 M contract. This isn’t the second coming of Jocketty’s decision to sign Chris Carpenter in 2003 but this is a pretty damned good signing. PECOTA estimates Lohse’s value this year at about $4.5 M, but PECOTA’s projections are based on him being a Phillie and pitching in Citizen’s Bank Park for half his starts. The Hardball Times’ Fair Market Value Calculator has him at about $7.5 M. That’s what the sabermetric projection systems say he’s worth but, as we all know, considering the weak free agent market, it’s a complete shock that some yahoo – Ed Wade, I’m looking at you – didn’t give him a 4 year $40 M contract.

Lohse has thrown more than 178 innings in 5 of the last 6 seasons and has a career ERA+ of 95, making him decidedly league average. However, those numbers are based on him pitching his entire career in heavily hitter-friendly ballparks. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that Lohse is a hidden gem but he has been very steady during the course of his career. In one of LB’s posts about Lohse above, he compared Lohse favorably to Suppan when the Cards signed him. In fact, Lohse’s #1 comp is Suppan – a guy who was never great but was pretty steady, giving the Cards 5 or 6 innings and around 180 – 190 IP per year. He took some pressure off the pen and, in turn, the other 4 starters and managed to keep the team in the game more often than not.

We know that at least half, and often close to 2/3 of a player’s free agent value is determined by his results the previous season. If we compare Lohse’s numbers last season, with the Reds and Phils, to other NL pitchers we find the following:

Stat	#	better than
FIP	4.52	C. Zambrano, Zito, Glavine, Livan Hernandez
WS	9	Zito, Marquis, Suppan, Morris
WPA	0.01	Livan, Morris, Suppan, Moyer

Was Lohse outstanding in ’07? Of course not but he was better than a lot of pitchers who receive more plaudits and more dollars than him. His FIP was almost exactly the same as the more heralded Bronson Arroyo and, as you can see above, was actually lower than the great Carlos Zambrano. His 9 win shares were equal to the total of Ben Sheets and Greg Maddux

So he entered the free agent market with Carlos Silva, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Livan Hernandez, and bunch of guys, like Clement, coming off injury of one form or another. Here’s how Lohse’s contract compares with several of his free agency competitors using last season’s win shares.

	Age	’08 $	’07 WS	$ per WS
Lohse	29	4.25	9	472,222
Byrd	37	8	11	727,273
Livan	33	5	10	500,000
Lieber	37	3.5	3	1,166,667
Maddux	41	10	9	1,111,111
K. Rogers	43	8	3	2,666,667
Glavine	42	8	11	727,273
Silva	28	7	11	636,364
Tomko	34	3	0	f-ing infinity!
K. Wells	31	3	3	1,000,000
Wolf	31	4.75	5	950,000

The Lohse signing is easily the best, in terms of value, of the offseason. Not only do you get more WS per $ than any of the others, but you’re also not locked into Silva’s 4 year contract or the 3-5 years most thought Lohse would get. As I said, it’s a great coup for Mozeliak but it doesn’t tell us how it happened.

The following is a list of pitchers projected to be in teams’ opening day starting rotations: Garrett Olson, Edwin Jackson, Gavin Floyd, Lenny DiNardo, Rick VandenHurk, the entire Washington Nationals’ rotation, Shawn Chacon and/or Chris Sampson, Matt Belisle, Esteban Loaiza, Randy Wolf AND Justin Germano, and perhaps Kip freaking Wells. So, somehow, about half the teams in MLB chose 1 or more of these guys over a guy who’s thrown 1074 league-average innings over the last 6 seasons. All the projection systems have him in the same neighborhood this year as well – w/ about 180 IP, a 4.55 FIP, fewer than 3 BB/9 and more than 5.5 K/9. He should be better than Braden Looper and we’re giving him $5.5 M. Some of these teams also intend to attempt to contend and will need every well-pitched inning they can get in order to do it.

The Rockies chose Kip Wells over Kyle Lohse. The Royals, who last year paid Gil Meche 5 years and $55 M decided to give Brett Tomko $3 M rather than giving Kyle Lohse $5 M. The Twins (do they know something?) gave more money to homer-friendly Livan Hernandez. The Padres chose 2 injury reclamation projects (Wolf and Prior) rather than taking 180-190 innings from Lohse.

Finally, there are the Astros, whose new GM – Ed Wade -- is ever-confounding. This guy traded what was left of his farm system for the aging Miguel Tejada. He traded Chad Qualls, Chris Burke, and a decent young pitcher for Jose Valverde and signed Kaz Matsui to a 3 year, $15 M contract to play 2B. It’s clear he intends to try and get as much out of the last couple of years of Berkman’s and Oswalt’s contract as he can. He’s going to try to win something before Carlos Lee’s body completely gives out and yet he gives Shawn freaking Chacon $2 M and has no interest in giving Lohse $4-5 M. This absolutely defies logic.

Let’s set aside the possibility of collusion among the owners. There wasn’t much out there available and Carlos Silva got his long-term contract. While I won’t say it’s impossible, to me it’s unlikely that Lohse was the ONLY victim of collusion this offseason. There must be another explanation.

How could a relatively valuable slip through the cracks so far that half the big-league teams will send someone to the mound every 5th day who couldn’t crack our injury-plagued rotation? I can’t help but wonder if the market hasn’t corrected to the point that league-average free agent acquisitions are actually UNDERvalued!

There’s been quite a switch among most (Astros excepted) major-league front offices toward a greater appreciation for the value of younger and cheaper major-league players. For the most part, this is a good thing as the high-dollar free agent contracts for mediocre players were what rendered many teams unable to compete for several years. Most teams now see that the young players whose contracts are still under the team’s control tend to be as good or better as their aging counterparts who were earning long-term and high-dollar contracts. Going w/ the younger and cheaper players also frees up lots of extra dollars that can be used on the superstars – those truly worthy of the long-term, high-dollar contracts.

Still, he we are in mid-March able to sign Kyle Lohse to a 1 year, $4.25 M contract. Has the market gone so far in favor of the young players that GM’s are unable to see the value in someone like Lohse? Might the Rockies, Dodgers or Padres wish they had signed him as they’re competing for a playoff spot this summer? How about the Reds or Astros? He’s probably worth 2-3 wins over Belisle or Chacon, to say nothing of the effect that his 6 innings will have on their respective bullpens. Will one of the weaker teams regret not signing Lohse, thus allowing them to trade him for something relatively valuable in July? Last year he was traded for Matt Maloney, a big left-handed pitcher who’s averaged more than a strikeout an inning in his 2+ years in the minors. It just may be that Mozeliak’s best move yet is the trade he’ll make in July, by dangling Lohse to one of these GM’s who passed on giving him $5 M a month ago.

The essence of "Moneyball" was to exploit inefficiencies in the market. For several years that meant finding players w/ a high OBP or going w/ younger, more cost-effective players that allow the team to save resources for other players. Perhaps Mozeliak just acted impulsively to shore up an injury-riddled rotation but he also may have stumbled upon the most recent iteration of a market inefficiency – that of the undervalued, league-average major league ballplayer. Whatever the reason, there’s little doubt that this is a very good signing.

Fiddle w/ the new platform for a while. As I said, I really like it and am really proud to be able to christen it w/ this bottle of champagne. Hopefully, it generates enough interest to go down like Dom Perignon and not Brut.

platform change coming tomorrow early a.m. . . . . . .

Game 5, 1926 v 1968
Game 5, 1934 v 1964

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