Pineiro	Parra
3.05 FIP	5.09 FIP

Going w/ a lefty in game 3 may be just the tonic the Brewers need to get 1 game closer to the Cards b/c we are simply awful against lefties. We'll likely need a good one from Pineiro b/c, w/ the Cubs coming up w/ 4 games in 3 days and a day game following a night game, I fear that Stavinoha (gag!), LaRue (puke!), Barden (oof!), and Hoffpauir (not altogether awful) may be in the starting lineup this afternoon. Maybe Tony will go w/ Yadi since LaRue will have to play 1 of the 2 games Sunday. I just ask 1 thing, Tony: please, please, please let Colby be in CF. I don't care if he hits 9th. He just absolutely should not be sitting so that Ankiel or Duncan can play just b/c there's a lefty on the mound.

I was curious about some of the Cardinals situational hitting as well as how bad they actually had been against lefties (Hint: really bad) so I started going through the NL league splits over at baseball-reference. I decided to go through them all and divide them up into categories according to the team’s proficiency with each. Below I have split them up into 5 categories relative to the rest of the league – way above average, above average, average, below average, and way below average. The team’s NL rank is in parentheses. You’ll notice that the ranks are not consistently placed into categories b/c it’s possible to be 2nd or 3rd in the league in a category but still be relatively close to league average. I would, therefore, have classified that split as above average instead of way above average, for example. I used OPS as the barometer for comparison.

WAY ABOVE AVERAGE

• vs. RHP (2)
• April (2)
• July (5)
• First basemen (1)
• 3rd place hitters (1)
• 9th place hitters (5)
• 3-1 counts (3)
• 1-2 counts (3)
• 3-2 counts (2)
• after 2-0 counts (2)
• after 2-1 counts (1)
• after 3-1 counts (3)
• after 0-2 counts (3)
• 3 balls (1)
• runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs (2)
• no outs (2)
• tie game (1)
• extra innings (1) – only 19 PAs
• vs. relievers (3)
• in Domes (1) – only 291 PA

ABOVE AVERAGE

• as right handed batters (5) (thank you, Albert!)
• Away (7)
• Catchers (4)
• 2nd Basemen (9)
• Pitchers (8)
• 1st batter of the game (5)
• leading off an inning (4)
• 1st place hitters (8)
• 2nd place hitters (7)
• 0-2 counts (4)
• 2-2 counts (6)
• after 0-1 counts (3)
• after 2-2 counts (2)
• 2 strikes (4)
• runner on 1st (5)
• runner on 2nd (5)
• runners on 1st and 2nd (6)
• bases loaded (3)
• scoring margin greater than 4 runs (7)
• 3rd inning (6)
• 4th inning (5)
• 5th inning (7)
• 6th inning (5)
• 7th inning (5)
• vs. starter, 2nd time through the order (3)
• vs. starter, 3rd time through the order (3)
• vs. power pitchers (7)
• in day games (6)

AVERAGE

• as left handed batters (7)
• June (9)
• starters (7)
• subs (9)
• 2-0 counts (8)
• after 3-0 counts (9)
• after 1-1 counts (7)
• after 1-2 counts (9)
• w/ runners in scoring position (8)
• w/ no one on base (7)
• w/ runners on base (7)
• runners on 2nd and 3rd (9)
• 1 out (7)
• within 1 run (7)
• within 2 runs (9)
• within 4 runs (7)
• high leverage (9)
• medium leverage (6)
• low leverage (5)
• 1st inning (8)
• 9th inning (8)
• vs. fly ball pitchers (8)
• vs. ground ball pitchers (9)
• open roof stadiums (8)

BELOW AVERAGE

• at home (12)
• Shortstops (9)
• Center fielders (9)
• Right fielders (10)
• Pinch hitters (12)
• 5th place hitters (11)
• 8th place hitters (11)
• on the 1st pitch (9)
• 3-0 counts (12)
• 0-1 counts (13)
• 1-1 counts (10)
• runner on third (11)
• w/ 2 outs (14)
• late and close situations (11)
• within 3 runs (11)
• in the 8th inning (10)
• at night (11)

WAY BELOW AVERAGE

• vs. left handed pitchers (16)
• in May (13)
• Third basemen (14)
• Left fielders (13)
• 4th place hitters (15)
• 6th place hitters (14)
• 7th place hitters (14)
• 1-0 counts (15)
• runners on 1st and 3rd (14)
• runner on third and 2 out (16)
• 2 outs and runners in scoring position (15)
• 2nd inning (16)
• vs. starting pitchers, 1st time through the order (16)
• vs. finesse pitchers

The bottom line – we’re an average offensive team…but only b/c we have Pujols. We have some big holes in the order and, in fact, it’s tough for the team to score once we get past the 3rd spot in the order. Hopefully Ludwick’s heating up and that will change somewhat. We’re neither very good nor very bad in the clutch – we’re good in tie games but not w/ 2 outs and runners in scoring position, for example. But we’re average. We’re average against fly ball pitchers AND ground ball pitchers. We’re average in high, medium, and low leverage situations. Our starters are average and so are our subs.

Going into this exercise we probably already knew where we were especially weak (vs. lefties and at 3B) and where we were especially strong (1B) but we might not have known how bad we are the first time through the order – simply awful! Any idea why? We’re below average on the first pitch and yet we’ve put more first pitches in play than any other team in the NL. Does this make sense? I don’t have a lot of new answers here. I was just hoping that condensing this info would stimulate some discussion until the game arrives at 1:00. It’s a rubber game and we’re facing a lefty. You probably don’t need to look at the info above to know how we’ve fared against lefties but did you know we were above average in day games? Hopefully that helps us today (and this weekend!)

This just in -- the Cards' medical staff seems to be about as good as I am at diagnosing injuries and Colby Rasmus is pretty good. We're halfway home!

 

Carpenter	Arroyo
2.60 FIP	5.98 FIP

In Carp's last start, he was beat around pretty well, garnering a game score of 25 -- the only start of the season in which he's been below average. I'm looking for him to rebound today. He gets a lot of Ks and a lot of ground balls and pitched a complete game 3 hitter the last time he faced the Reds. I hope we don't need him to be that good today.

Arroyo's given up the most homers and earned runs in the majors this season. Both lefties and righties have slugging %s at .500 or better and he's actually been worse away from Great America Ballpark than he has at home. Amazingly, he's 8-7 -- more proof that a pitcher's wins or winning % are a useless method of analyzing a pitcher's performance.

Would you believe that the Cards’ player w/ the 2nd most RBI has exactly half as many as our RBI leader? Pujols has 82 RBI and Ryan Ludwick has 41. RBI are probably the most overrated offensive statistic but still it says a little bit about how dependent this Cards offense is on Albert. This Cards team right now has only 4 players who are above average offensively and one of them is Jarrett Hoffpauir who has a walk and a single in 4 PA. The other 3 are Rasmus who is 2.9 wRAA, Schumaker – 0.7 wRAA, and Pujols – 44.9 wRAA. Take Pujols away and replace him w/ someone like Aubrey Huff or James Loney – the 2 first basemen closest to average major league hitters – and we’re in 3rd or 4th place rather than tied for 1st.

Of course, you don’t need me to tell you Pujols is good. The whole idea is pretty silly, really. I just fell across that stuff as I was trying to figure out what the hell is wrong w/ Ryan Ludwick. The first thing that stands out is the noticeable drop in Ludwick’s LD rate. Last year it was 26.3% which I think most of us knew was unsustainably high but it’s gone from one of baseball’s highest to one of baseball’s lowest. This year it’s nearly 10% lower (16.8%). Not coincidently, I’m sure, his FB rate is about 8.5% higher – from 46.5% to 54.9%. Needless to say, unless all those extra fly balls are leaving the ballpark, fewer line drives and more fly balls means a lower batting average. As a result, his BABIP has fallen 100 points – from .349 to .250. As it turns out, his fly balls are leaving the ballpark at a much lower rate as well as his HR/FB has fallen from 19.9% to 11.6%, which is much closer to league average. Still, Ludwick has very good power so his HR/FB shouldn’t be nearly league average. Between 18-20% or so is where it probably belongs. One of the reasons fewer fly balls are leaving the park is b/c he’s popping more balls up – many more. His IFFB% has gone up from 8.6% to 12.6% but when you consider that his FB rate has risen as well – last year he popped up about 4% of the time; this year he’s popping up about 7% of the time. Fewer line drives, more popups – he’s simply not squaring up the ball the way he did last year.

Is he overanxious at the plate? Last year he averaged 3.84 P/PA and he’s at 3.79 this year – hardly a huge difference. However, he’s seeing fewer strikes this year – down from 52.3% to 49.8%. This is somewhat surprising considering how prolific he was last year. You’d expect that pitchers would have pitched around him more last year and, since he’s not hitting the ball well, they’d be more likely to go after him this year. This tells me that he probably is somewhat anxious at the plate. His walk rate is down from 10.3% to 8.5%. He’s swinging at more pitches this year – 4.5% more pitches outside the zone and 4.5% more inside the zone. It stands to reason that he’s pressing somewhat. The offense is struggling and he’s struggling and so it’s unsurprising that he’s become anxious. Still, it seems to be working against him and he needs to relax and see more pitches and look for his pitch, rather than just swinging at what the pitcher tosses up there. If he’s seeing fewer strikes, he should be seeing more P/PA – not fewer – even if it’s just .05 P/PA fewer.

He’s actually making contact more frequently than he did last year, to which the reduction in his K rate (from 27.1% to 20.1%) will attest. Maybe we need him to be more picky and then, when he gets his pitch, more aggressive. Maybe we’re better off w/ more swing-and-misses b/c it allows him another pitch (often) rather than a popup to 2nd. Last year Ludwick crushed fastballs, to the tune of 34.9 wRAA but this year he’s just at 3.2 wRAA against the fastball. He’s seeing a bit fewer fastballs this year (down to 51.6% from 55.4%) and a few more sliders this year – with which he’s really struggling. He was about average w/ the slider last year and he’s more than 4 runs below average in half a season so far this year.

You’d have to say that some of his struggles this season are attributable to bad luck. His BABIP has fallen by 100 points and is about 40-45 points below league average. Still, he appears to be more anxious and, as a result, isn’t hitting the ball nearly as solidly as he did last year. It would behoove him – and the team – to be more patient at the plate and then, when he gets his pitch, explode into it. If he’s worrying about swinging and missing, he should stop. I’ll take a few more Ks to get his slugging % back over .500. It’s down more than 160 points from last season.

I still have faith in Ludwick. I think his upside is higher than either Duncan’s or Ankiel’s – last year’s success supports that – so I’d rather see him playing every day than either of the other 2 lefties. Honestly, what does Duncan have to offer? A few more walks, I suppose, but at least Ludwick has the possibility of hitting the ball out of the yard. He is still 2nd on the team in dingers, though Rasmus is right on his heels.

 

Thompson	Owings
4.77 FIP	5.39 FIP

If Micah Owings were in our starting lineup, his wOBA would be the 2nd best among our starting 9. As it is, it'll probably be tied for the 3rd best in the Reds' starting lineup. On the mound, well...he's a pretty good hitter. He walks too many, doesn't strike out enough, and gives up too many homers. His GB% is pretty low also, thus making pitching in Great American Ballpark that much more difficult.

On our side, it's a good thing that Thompson has a 56.5% GB% b/c a 2.81 K/9 is just unworkable in the majors. He just can't survive for long allowing everyone to put the ball in play. If the Reds don't hit the ball out of the ballpark, they could certainly single him to death. Thompson has 6 starts so far this season and has an above average game score in only 1 of them. He's been beaten around in his last 2 starts and it seems to be a race between he and Wellemeyer to see who loses his job when Lohse returns from the DL. Wellemeyer seemed to have a leg up before his impressive start a couple days ago so now Thompson's probably ahead by a nose. Here's hoping he pitches well enough today to fall behind Wellemeyer once again.

Over the last 7 games, Colby Rasmus has started just 4. He has actually had the fortunate opportunity to pinch hit in 2 of the other 3 games and garnered a 2nd PA in last night’s game, finishing 2 for 2 on the night. Over the same 7 games, Chris Duncan and Rick Ankiel have each started 5 times and Ryan Ludwick has started 6. When Rick Ankiel went on the DL in May, Rasmus assumed the everyday spot in CF. For the most part, this continued with Ludwick on the DL as well but Ludwick returned from the DL on May 29. Here are the players’ numbers from May 29 through July 2. (UZR is for the entire season.)

	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	UZR
Ludwick	116	103	21	3	10	22	.204	.278	.330	2.0
Ankiel	118	111	25	3	7	26	.225	.271	.396	2.5
Duncan	105	92	20	1	12	26	.217	.305	.283	-2.5
Rasmus	99	98	32	3	0	15	.327	.327	.531	10.4

What’s wrong w/ this picture? Rasmus has the most hits and the fewest Ks and has the fewest PAs of the 4. His slugging % over the month-plus is nearly Ludwick’s and Duncan’s respective OPSes. Now, I’m a little disappointed and frustrated by the fact that he hasn’t walked since May 25 but his OPS is still over .850 over the time period. If the other 3 were hitting, there would be more reason to be concerned about Rasmus’s lack of walks but considering the OPS difference between he and #2 – Ankiel (191 points!) – harping on the lack of walks seems to be nitpicking. Rasmus though is a liability defensively, right? Wrong. He’s the best we’ve got and it’s not even close …AND he plays the toughest, and most important, of the 3 defensive positions. I understand that the guy needs a day off every now and then, but there is absolutely no reason for him NOT to be in the starting lineup every day. Sit him against lefties? Why? So Ankiel and Duncan can play in his stead? Look at the numbers? They’re both lefties as well who struggle against southpaws. Exactly what do we gain by sitting him? There’s no excuse or justification for him not to be in the lineup every day. What more needs to be said?

Good article over at fangraphs re: Pineiro’s metamorphosis this season. Is it sustainable? The article says "yes." It’s meaningful b/c Pineiro will be a free agent at the end of the season. I need to see more in order to be convinced but he’s been fantastic, by and large.

I was glad to see Jarrett Hoffpauir’s promotion and his success last night. Hoffpauir’s always been one of my pets – a guy I always wanted to see get a chance and thought he deserved more than he’s gotten. I even wrote a thread about him about a year and a half ago comparing his minor league numbers to Dustin Pedroia’s. Just to be clear, I never said he’d be the same as Pedroia, just that he had some of the same skills and, though it took him longer to succeed at every level than it did Pedroia, I thought he had a chance to become a solid big leaguer. I’ve since tempered my optimism and he may never get another major league hit, but his walk and hit last night were huge (WPA = .469; Albert’s = .459) and I’m happy for him. Hoffpauir:chuckb::Blake Hawksworth:DanUp.

Finally, I guess I should offer a bit of an explanation for my bizarre post last Sunday. I was clearly responding to the chatter that we were involved in talks for Matt Holliday but I was also preparing to leave on vacation Sunday morning. I put together that thread Saturday morning and never found out about the trade for DeRosa, which happened actually before my Holliday post went up, until Monday or Tuesday when I saw a snippet of someone playing LF for the Cards and wearing number 7. Joe Mather? Nope, he’s out for the year. WTF? Who is this masked man and please, God, don’t let it be Matt Holliday! Anyway, we likely paid a steep price for DeRosa. He’ll help, as I said last Sunday, and if trades are measured by what they do THIS SEASON, we’ll win. It seems, however, that we gave up Chris Perez and either Francisco Samuel or Jess Todd for DeRosa. That ain’t cheap! DeRosa’s probably a type-B free agent at the end of the year so he’s worth a supplemental draft pick but I feel it’s likely that the 2 pitchers will provide more wins, and probably several more, over the next 5-7 years than DeRosa and that supplemental pick will for the Cards. That said, if DeRosa’s win and a half gets us into the playoffs, might it be worth it anyway?

There are many who see trades as zero-sum games – that one team wins the trade and the other, necessarily, loses. I don’t agree, simply b/c the two teams often have different goals – as we and the Indians do now. Ours is to win today while still maintaining the ability to win next year and beyond. Theirs is to win in the future. DeRosa may help us win the division or Wild Card this year and the 2 pitchers may help the Indians be successful in the future and then we would have both gotten what we wanted. Still, I’d have much rather given up only Perez.

One of the trades that people often use as a cautionary tale about making trade deadline deals is one made in 1987 when the Atlanta Braves traded starting pitcher Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for a pitching prospect named John Smoltz. Alexander, for most of his career, was an OK starting pitcher and Smoltz was a star for a Braves team that won about 74 division championships in a row. He’ll be a Hall of Famer, in all likelihood, and people often point to that trade as a bad one for the Tigers and a great one for the Braves. It clearly was a great one for the Braves, who weren’t going anywhere in 1987. However, Alexander had a 1.53 in 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. His FIP was 3.20 in those 11 starts – 2nd only to his 1972 season in a 19 year career. Over those 11 starts and 88 IP, he was worth 3.9 wins. The Tigers finished 98-64 that season, defeating the Blue Jays by just 2 games in the AL East. It’s not too much of a stretch to say that Alexander’s acquisition was the difference. Though he didn’t pitch well in the ALCS and they lost to the eventual World Champion Twins, you would have to say that this trade was a winner for the Tigers as well. The Braves and the Tigers had different goals at the time and both came out winners in this trade. Get to the postseason and take your chances.

I think this trade will be measured in much the same way. If the Cards make it to the postseason, both sides will be winners in the trade. If we don’t, however, the Indians win and the Cards overpaid. Wouldn't it be interesting if the outcome of this trade wasn't determined by how DeRosa plays or how the 2 pitchers pitch for the Indians, but rather by how much Rasmus plays over the last 3 months? Hmmm....

 

Cain	Wellemeyer
4.00 FIP	4.84 FIP

I'm out of town so if Wellemeyer's been bumped from the rotation, I either don't know it or can't change this. Dare to dream! Cain shut us down earlier this season but the Giants are one time that has a more difficult time scoring than we do. Cain has 9 wins and an ERA around 2.50 but he is walking around 4 batters per 9 innings and is benefiting from a .266 BABIP.