Viva El Birdos: FanPosts

40 Man Question..

2009-11-06T13:53:07Z

I'm currently researching something I've been wondering for a while, and I've came across a question that I can't readily find an answer to.

When reading about the Rule 5 draft it states

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Now I fully get what that says, I just don't get how it's calculated. Service time is easy, and well covered - this.. I'm not finding much.

For example:

If a player is drafted and signs quick and then goes and plays short season ball (or A, AA). Is his "years been in the organization" starting the day he signed? What about the draft picks that don't start until the next year? Or the ones that pitch a couple of games (IIRC, like Lynn) and get shut down for the season.

I guess I'm just trying to see what exactly constitutes a year in MLB eyes. Service time is very precise on how it's calculated, but I'm not sure *when* teams are required to use the 40 man. If I can define what they mean by "years", it should be easier to find out, but the CBA doesn't have anything that I can see.

Any idea?

The current Busine$$ of Baseball...how long can it last?

2009-11-06T10:35:59Z

Right off the bat I want to say I thank the heavens that I am a Cardinals fan and the success this franchise has had over the past 13 years! We have been really lucky and in the current system we should be able to compete...BUT...

If your a fan of an American League team that's not the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and you haven't given up on baseball you are a true die hard fan. I say that as a joke but it's not really a laughing matter anymore. And this isn't to put down the Yankees and their 27th Championship because believe it or not deep down I really respect their history and a lot of their true die-hard fans. This isn't about the Yankees...this is about the current system that baseball has that a team like the Yankees can thrive on. Yeah some can say that is a good thing but the fact is almost half of the teams in baseball don't have a year to year glimmer of hope to win it all like the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals, A's, ect. because of the way the business of baseball has become over the past 12-14 years. Like it or not the sport has become somewhat of a sport of the haves and the have nots. The large market teams are thriving right now and are playoff bound almost every season in the current system...for better or worse. But it's not a suprise because baseball like everything else in entertainment has become about ratings, big coorporations, big dollar sponsorships and high dollar TV contracts. And in this era of big time money the small market teams just can't compete with the big boys when it comes to paying these free agent contracts. This is where the problem is. Is it a problem? Probably depends on what part of the country you live in but for some....yeah it's a problem.

Right now MLB is in a big money making boom (the sport as a whole). But it will change at some point. It may take another 10-15 years or so but this current system will crash on MLB and things will have to change. It could be that some teams will have to fold because fans in the small markets will just finally give up on the sport (and this is starting to happen to many of the small market teams now) or maybe a new system will have to be established but the boom won't last forever and if baseball is to survive.. changes will have to be made. If not then at some point Major League Baseball is going to become just a large market sport when every team will be located in just the large markets and markets where baseball is king (St. Louis) and the league could be shaved to where there will only be about 20-22 teams in baseball. I know that sounds drastic but the small markets are slowly being killed off from the sport and if the fans give up and don't show up anymore and buy tickets and they start to lose local sponsorships then several of these teams (Pirates, Reds, Royals, Marlins, Rays, A's ect.) will go bankrupt....maybe not the owners of the teams per say but the franchise in that city will go bankrupt. I know that sounds crazy but when you really look at the current structure of MLB is it really? And maybe that might not be a bad thing...maybe MLB needs to contract 4-6 teams in the future.

In most of these small markets in recent years they have got by the problems by building fancy new stadiums (some by using the tax payer's money) to try and lure in the fans and it has worked to some degree but that is starting to wear off. So here soon if they don't have a team they can get behind and want to spend money on, these teams can't sell just a new stadium forever and they are going to be in big trouble and getting the luxury tax checks from MLB won't be enough to survive. If things don't change in the next 10 years or so there might not be any turning back. There are no easy answers and yeah there are some teams where the owners are greedy and won't put money back in the teams for a real chance to contend. That is a huge problem that is eating away some of these small markets as well. But the deal is.... at some point MLB has to forget about the media pointing at steroids as baseball's biggest problem and ignore the calls for big ratings from the networks for a little while and find a way to work with the owners and player's union to somehow fix the problems that has become the ugly business of baseball.....for the good of the game...as a whole.

VEB CheBird T-Shirt for Sale - Red or Powder Blue, CLEARANCE

2009-08-21T17:18:28Z

Now I have a bunch of extra shirts I want to get rid of. I am not sure if I am going to make any more this season after I am done with this batch. . This is what I currently have in stock and after that I am done. I am lowering my prices just to get rid of everything. Shipping is $4.95 for Domestic and $10.00 for International.

T-shirt - Black Ink on Red T-Shirt - $10

S -2
M - 0
L -0
XL - 0

T-Shirt - Red Ink on Blue T-Shirt - $10

S -0
M - 0
L - 0
XL -0

T-Shirt - Black Ink on Blue T-Shirt - $10

XL - 1

Long Sleeve - Black Ink on Red - $12.50

XL - 2

Hoodies - Black Ink on Red - $20

XL - 2

Hoodies - Red Ink on Blue - $27.50

L - 2
XL - 1

Polo's - Red Ink on Blue - $10

XL - 1

Polo's - Black Ink on Red - $10

M - 1

XL - 2

I also have 3 shirts that were messed up for $5 each. They are Black on Red M and Red on Blue XL. I have pics of them if you want to see what they look like.

I accept Paypal and you can E-Mail me at FlimtotheFlam@gmail.com. I will send you a Paypal invoice. You can also take a look at the clothes on my Flickr site including the current clearance rack

Here is a couple pics of the shirts I have made so far.

You can e-mail me at FlimtotheFlam@gmail.com with any questions than I will send you an invoice with Paypal if you are interested.

Jeff Pearlman Thinks Of Hair Clumps When He Thinks Of The Thief McGwire

2009-11-03T21:25:24Z

Jeff Pearlman offers we the lifeblood of sport his "Pearls of Wisdom" on SI.com. Last week's "pearl" was more a bullet of sanctimonious outrage aimed at the heart of the Cardinals' new hitting coach.

When most people think of Mark McGwire, one of three things enters their minds:

• Monstrous blasts that cleared the highest of walls and the most distant of gaps.

• Pathetic congressional testimony.

• Arms the size of refrigerators.

Allow me to take a moment to lament the overuse of bullet points by sportswriters in this day and age. Now, if you please, an additional moment to lament the use of bullet points when letters reminscent of a multiple choice problem would have been more appropriate. The new question: "What do most people think of when they think of Mark McGwire?" The answer: "'d.' None of the above."

Seriously. I don't think of monstrous blasts. In fact, I remember two McGwire homers. First and foremost, I think of Number 62, which barely scraped over Busch II's left field wall. Secondly, I think of the 500-and-some-odd-foot shot through the roof of the Kingdome off of The Big Unit. I suppose the second one is monstrous, but that was no gap shot. He pulled into the uber-upper deck. I don't think of his congressional testimony. Probably because he did not lie like the finger-wagging Raffy or the translated Sosa. I also don't think his arms are the size of refrigerators. Maybe portable coolers, but not 'friges, because that's just silly. "Popeye Arms," yes. "Refrigerator arms," no.

I consider myself "most people" and I think of: (1) The single season home run record of 70; and (2) Steroids. Then, I say to myself:

"Self, why should I waste my time wondering if Mark McGwire used steroids over ten years ago? He isn't even the single season home run champion any longer. The majority of the pitchers he faced were likely using PEDs of some sort, whether it be amphetamines like the great Willie Mays, steroids like the great Barry Bonds, or HGH like True Yankee Andy Pettite. I think I'll go read about the 2009 World Series since I love baseball and am looking forward to (hopefully, fingers crossed) another dramatic game featuring multiple Chase Utley L.A. Looks-fueled homers sailing through the November sky. [Brings up Shysterball.] Oh that Craig Calcaterra is so amusing. I love non-sancitimonious baseball commentary, especially when it also happens to be funny."

Jeff Pearlman is not "most people." He is an author, educated in the history of baseball, and his cranium chooses "None of the Above," as well, but for an educated reason.

When I think of Mark McGwire, the first image to cross through my cranium is that of hair. Clumps upon clumps upon clumps of hair.

(As an aside, along with bullet points, I don't really understand why columnist go out of their way to drop a multiple-syllable word unnecessarily. Sure, cranium is only three syllables and the name of a once-popular board game. But, doesn't that make it all the more annoying? I mean, at least George Will makes you dig out your dictionary.)

Clumps of hair? If you are thinking that this is some sort of dadaist exercise, you will be disappointed.

Back in 1961, when a relatively obscure New York Yankee outfielder named Roger Maris was chasing Babe Ruth's single-season home run mark, the pressure was unbearable. Commissioner Ford Frick desperately wanted the Bambino's record to stand. Yankee fans hoped Mickey Mantle, their beloved homegrown star, would set the new standard. The New York media did its all to paint Maris as an ungrateful outsider -- sullen and surly and ultimately unworthy.

As the summer heated up and 60 came closer into view, Maris began to fall apart. He chain-smoked one cigarette after another. He stopped speaking to the press.

He lost his hair.

In clumps.

Large, brown clumps.

According to his Wikipedia page, Mr. Pearlman got his first job in journalism in 1989. Assuming he got this job fresh out of college, that would put him in mid-40s. Judging by his picture, he looks about that old. That is to say, not old enough to have, ya know, actually witnessed firsthand Roger Maris losing clumps of hair. I, too, have seen Billy Crystal's well-done "61*" and that was a very memorable part of the movie. I agree that it was very unfortunate the way that the media, baseball establishment, and sportswriters treated Maris. (Crystal's movie was made after the '98 home run chase, by the way, and probably would not have been made without that memorable chase bringing this record to the fore.) "61*" told a story a lot of us did not know and, I believe, permanently changed the public's perception of Roger Maris. I know that it molded mine, as a college freshman, even if I already had a positive impression of the former Cardinal. Roger Maris deserved the treatment Crystal gave him and the rewriting of history for which the 1998 home run chase provided an impetus.

As I sit here at my computer, dumbfounded by the St. Louis Cardinals' numbingly inane decision to hire McGwire as the team's new hitting coach, I think back to Maris. Actually, I really think back to September 8, 1998, when McGwire hit his 62nd home run of the season at Busch Stadium, then immediately walked toward the stands to engulf Maris' family in an enormous bear hug. Later, with tears streaming down his cheeks, McGwire told the media how, earlier in the day, he had held the bat Maris used when he set the old mark. "I touched it with my heart," McGwire said. "When I did that, I knew tonight was going to be the night. I can say my bat will lie next to his, and I'm damn proud of it."

Sniff, sniff.

"Inane?" Is it really nonsensical? After all, Milt Thompson is a big-league hitting coach and his resume is significantly thinner than McGwire's. What's that? Oh, Thompson couldn't possibly have used 'roids? That's the difference? To that I say, to know hitting is to know hitting and if you can teach what you know, then coach away.

The scent of hypocrisy rises from this attack. In one paragraph, Pearlman bemoans the treatment of Maris that resulted in Maris chain-smoking and losing hair; in the next, he sarcastically attacks McGwire for honoring Maris in a way that few associated with the game--sportswriters, baseball insiders, players--had done before 1998. It is inconsistent and disingenuous. But, I suppose, only by undermining the genuine honoring of Roger Maris can Pearlman attack McGwire's character for allegedly using steroids...

As we all now know (Admittedly, I'm technically supposed to include the word "allegedly" in here somewhere. But I can't. And won't. Because, without question, McGwire used performance-enhancers.) McGwire was a fraud. His amazing feat wasn't nearly so amazing. His courage and strength were mirages. His greatness, well, very artificial.

The juvenile "[s]niff, sniff" seems like it should be beneath someone writing for Sports Illustrated, but this whole column does, too, so I'll just chalk it up to Pearlman Being Pearlman. (He's like Manny that way.) Pearlman then goes on to label McGwire a fraud. And maybe he was, if using steroids--assuming, as Pearlman states outright, that McGwire did--makes one a "fraud." But, what Pearlman cannot outright assert, even as he goes to great column-structuring lengths to infer, is that McGwire's sentiment toward Roger Maris was fraudulent. For those of us who watched the events unfold, this inference rings hollow. Unfortunately, Pearlman is not even close to done with his rant.

Worst of all, however, McGwire was a baseball thief. At the very moment his 341-foot home run landed behind the outfield fence, he robbed Roger Maris of the most important record in professional sports...

Even assuming this is a crime, as dastardly in nature as Pearlman's childlike psyche feels it to be, to assert that Mark McGwire is some lone figure in the shadows, slinking into the record books to singlehandedly steal professional sports' greatest record, is just silly. It is nowhere near as cleancut as Pearlman, in his sophomoric column, would have us believe. The list of accomplices to this "crime" is a mile long. The owners, the non-using players who turned a blind eye, the training staffs, the front office management, the Players' Association, and the sportswriters...Yes, that's right. The sportswriters. Jeff Pearlman helped Mark McGwire steal Maris' record. So did Murray Chass and countless others who had eyes, ears, common sense, and access. Any man or woman with that basic set of traits, and who turned a blind eye, is an accomplice to this historical "theft." Rather than worshipping these cardboard gods like a schoolboy, put on your Lois Lane cap and do some investigative journalism. It is a basic tenant of journalism. The industry gives out awards for it, even. Each and every sportswriter who missed this story, the baseball story of an era, should be denied Hall of Fame access. If Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds are denied plaques because of the BBWAA's sanctimony, then so should the BBWAA members who missed this story. They failed show even the most basic level of competence, let alone greatness, and none of those who cast stones out of their glass houses should be memoralized alongside the greats of baseball journalism.

Pearlman goes on with his scarlet "R" sewing.

...He robbed the Maris family of future income from 61-related merchandising and events. He robbed the Hall of Fame -- which swooped up McGwire memorabilia as if it were free Twinkies -- of its credibility, he robbed those fans who spent hundreds of dollars for a ticket in order to witness history and he robbed thousands upon thousands of kids of a seemingly genuine role model.

I'm pretty sure that the Maris family received income from 61*-related merchandising, events, and probably will get more from Blu-Ray sales (when HBO releases 61* in blu-way, which I will be sure to purchase).

Not only should the Hall of Fame have McGwire memorabilia, but it should also have his plaque, and Bonds', and Clemens', and Sosa's, because their performances are an inextricable part of baseball history, just like segregation-era greats Ruth, Honrsby, and Dean, as well as amphetamines-era players Mays, Mantle, Robinson, Ripken, and Smith. (And, I might add, an institution that cancels an event to commemorate one of the sport's greatest films because of two of the stars' statements in opposition to a war already has some credibility problems.)

Thank you for carrying the torch of outrage for the Cardinal faithful that filled Busch II during that historic 1998 season, Jeff. I don't know how many of the millions asked you to do so, but consider me someone who does not feel cheated in any way, shape, or form. It was an amazing experience that produced many an indelible memory. That chase brought many back to the game of baseball and hooked many more for life. We came for Big Mac, but stayed for the game of baseball.

If the baseball record book is the sport's Holy Bible, then McGwire is a 3-year old armed with a permanent marker. The damage is not merely done -- it is un-erasable. (Of course, along the same analogous measures, Barry Bonds is a 3-year-old with a permanent marker, a torch and a vat of gasoline.)

The damage is "un-erasable" (because it was done with a permanent marker!). Again, if Pearlman, protector of the sanctity of baseball after-the-fact, had been paying attention before the 1998 home run chase, like in 1996 when he was hired by Sports Illustrated to write about baseball, the 3-year old would not have gotten even remotely close to the HolyBibleRecordBook. Sure, those numbers will be there, but every person who cares enough to open that record book will know of the accusations leveled against McGwire and Bonds. (For example, I was going to buy tickets for the final Cards/Brew Crew series if it looked like Pujols would be approaching 61.) If that's not enough, we could put a double-asterisk in the HolyBibleRecordBook, to denote "Steroids Era," but that seems childish, doesn't it? Kind of like putting an asterisk next to a record to denote a different season length.

And now, because Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa (whose steroid-loaded A's teams of the 1980s and early-'90s went down as an embarrassment to the sport)...

As with most everything in this "Pearl of Wisom," this is an unnecessary pot shot. How are Tony LaRussa's Athletics clubs any more of an embarassment than any other club--say, the Rangers? Yankees? Red Sox?--that employed PED users during this time in baseball history? Tell me and I'll join the stone-casting.

...has a soft spot for a former player who shed 70 pounds as soon as he retired, McGwire is back in the baseball fold; back to teach today's ballplayers how to (egad) succeed the same way he did; back to offer wisdom.

Is Pearlman really inferring that Big Mac is going to teach steroids use? Or, is he inferring that because McGwire might have used steroids, that he knows nothing about hitting a baseball? Where was this sanctimony when the Cardinals signed, re-signed, and extended known PED user Ryan Franklin? After all, that cheater was and will continue to actually play the game...

I, for one, am angry. In the course of researching and writing two books that dealt with steroids, I heard from angry fans, from angry writers, from angry coaches and baseball retires. Within the game, however, McGwire is still lauded as an all-time great. He is to be admired and worshiped and embraced.

Yes, Pearlman has written two books--one on Bonds that was overshadowed by "Game of Shadows" and one on Clemens that was overshadowed by Clemens' lawsuits--after the steroids story broke. He was a day late and a dollar short. If he'd have written one column in 1996, he could have saved Roger Maris and the sanctity of the HolyBibleRecordBook from un-erasable harm. He heared from angry fans (because angry people are the ones who make a point of being heard from) and angry writers (who were doubtlessly angry at themselves for not being more like Lois Lane and getting to the bottom of the 500-foot homers, 50-HR season, and bulgingly muscular bodies of the 1990s adn 2000s players) and angry coaches (who had NO IDEA! HONESTLY! that PEDs were being used) as well as angry former players (who think that greenies are fine but steroids are an outrage).

Mark McGwire is a baseball golden calf who is worshipped by PED sinners, apparently. I do my worshipping on Sundays, and not of athletes. Whether or not you want to admire a man who went out of his way to share the spotlight with Roger Maris and his family, who did some great charity work to help abused kids and may have used steroids is your business. I, for one, will be embracing Mark McGwire, the hitting coach, because the Cardinals could use a more patient approach at the plate and I am hoping McGwire can help them to achieve it. The other reason is that--aside of Ozzie Smith, of course--I don't worship ballplayers. I know that some are racist, some gamble, some hit women, some do drugs, and some womanize. All of them happen to be incredibly physically gifted. Being a grown-up, I can separate the awe of a 12-to-6 curveball, or, a 450-foot moonshot, from what makes someone admirable, their character. That is why I'll tell my kids about the steroids era, and why players did what they did at that time, just like I'll tell them about the Black Sox, Pete Rose, greenies, and segregation--but only when they are older and only after they have heard stories of Stan Musial and how, no matter the degree of physical talent, the true measure of a human being is how that person treats others.

Losing my religion (w/ baseball)

2009-10-27T20:11:52Z

I was listening to the local ESPN Radio (101.1 in STL) this afternoon, and Miklasz had a caller that wanted to discuss how steroids have destroyed the soul of baseball. Miklasz and Strauss both had the same response, in that they both believe that the romanticism of baseball is dead. Furthermore, Randy Karraker and Bob Ramsey discussed it again later, and they seem to have come to the same conclusion.

The consensus is that the amount of information available, along with the removal of the gentleman's agreement with reporters to not report the unflattering, extraneous news, has killed the sense of romanticism. It also seems to be the general feeling that this is not an issue, and that those who still want to connect to that romanticism with the game are simply naive.

This got me to questioning what makes watching sports as a form of entertainment unique to all others for me. My feeling has always been that I watch sports for the unpredictability and competition. As a regrettably nonathletic person myself, I have always been amazed and impressed by the physical and mental acumen of professional athletes. In addition, the nostalgic remembrance of watching players excel in the most difficult of circumstances provides a sense of commaraderie between fans that very seldom occurs around typical life events. Sports have always provided me with inspiration of what the human spirit can achieve when talent and effort meet in the beautiful synergy that is provided by a 17 K effort in the World Series or hitting an improbable HR to extend a series.

However, if it has all become a sham, if the efforts provided on the field of play are artificial, is there any reason to be impressed? I am a fervent believer in doing all things honorably, even when I can't live up to such an impossible standard. I have to accept my failures while continuing to strive to be perfect in that arena. I don't fault players that have failed to live up to such a standard, but I'm not sure that there is a purpose in supporting a system that accepts, and sometimes even incentivizes, lying and cheating as a culture.

My question to you all is:

Why should we continue to devote so much time, energy, and emotion to a sport if we accept that unfair play is the rule?

October Lore: One In A Million

2009-10-26T22:19:00Z

For baseball, October is the month of eternity. While a plate appearance in June will often become swallowed up in and forgotten amongst the thousands of other batter-vs.-pitcher confrontations over the course of the marathon 162-game regular season, each postseason pitch offers those involved a chance at heroism and at infamy. For every Kirk Gibson, there is a Carlos Beltran. For every Jim Edmonds, there is a Bill Buckner. For every Mariano Rivera (pick one), there is a Mariano Rivera (blown save and loss in Game 7 of the '01 World Series).

The game of baseball, more than any other sport, places individual players on an island, which shines a spotlight on their individual successes and failures. This unique stage enshrines in our collective consciousness heroes and goats as each October triumph and heartbreak for a team and its fans is the product of players coming through or failing, largely while acting alone, right before our very eyes.

These successes and failures are made all the more memorable by their improbability. It adds to both their enjoyment and anguish. As we all know, the best hitter in a given season, on average, will make an out at least sixty-five out of every one hundred times he digs into the box. This means that, in those most hand-wringing of situations, even the greatest hitters have the odds that they will come through stacked against them.

Now let us move to Cardinal October Lore, and the improbable feats that gave birth to a Cardinal hero and a Cardinal goat.

"GO CRAZY, FOLKS! GO CRAZY!"

Ozzie Smith will never be known first for his bat. Even if his offensive skill is underrated, he is known as "The Wizard" because of otherworldly skill as a defensive shortstop. For his career, Ozzie hit .262/.337/.328 for an OPS of .666 overall. He managed only 28 home runs in 10,778 PAs. That is one homer per every 384.9 PAs. Think about that for a moment; in let it sink. Now introduce these figures to your doubtlessly already-blown mind. Ozzie hit 23 of his 28 homers from the righthanded batter's box, only hitting 5 dingers (to use the new hitting coach's term of choice) in his 7,183 PAs from the lefthanded side of the plate. That is one homer for every 1,436 PAs.

In 1985,the Cardinals squared off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. The clubs split the first four games, making the series knotted up at 2 games each, and setting the stage for a dramatic and pivotal Game 5 in the astroturfed Busch Stadium. The Cardinals struck first, plating 2 runs in the bottom of the first when Tommy Herr's double plated Willie McGee and the Wizard. In the top of the fourth, the Dodgers tied the game on a Madlock homer. The series, and the game, would remain deadlocked at two into the ninth inning.

Right Dodger reliever Tom Niedenfuer took the ball for the visitors. That season, he had amassed 104 strikeouts to just 24 walks while earning 19 saves and posting a 2.61 ERA. The hulking righty stood at 6'5" and retired Willie McGee on a pop out to third base. In stepped Ozzie Smith, batting left-handed, something during which he had never, up to that point in his MLB career, hit a home run while doing. Niedenfuer, who had allowed 6 home runs in 106.1 IP, worked ahead in the count to the Wizard, 1-2. The mustachioed righty went down and in with a fastball and Ozzie swung his way into eternity, yanking the heater just barely over the right field wall. Over the joyous explosion of the Cardinal faithful, Jack Buck lent his legendary call.

"I LOST IT IN THE LIGHTS"

Matt Holliday was the apple of TLR's eye, the Proven Veteran who could actually protect Albert Pujols such that opposing pitchers would be forced to pitch the National League's perennial MVP. At the trading deadline, Cardinal GM John Mozeliak made TLR's dream a reality and traded a handful of prospects, including the Cardinals' top hitting prospect, for the now-Oakland A's left fielder. Holliday took the National League by storm upon re-joining it and contributed to the Cardinals' runaway division title.

Matt Holliday has played left field throughout most of his time in the big leagues. He has established himself as an above-average defenderat the the position, posting a UZR/150 of 6.2 for his career. In 6 seasons, Holliday has been given 31 errors in 7,267.1 innings. Of those 31 errors, 24 occurred on a fielding opportunity. A runner reached base due to one of Holliday's errors on 6 occasions. So, a runner reached base because of a Holliday error once every 1,211 innings Holliday plays in the field.

There were two outs in the pivotal Game 2 of the NLDS versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. Chris Carpenter was less than stellar in his opening game loss and Adam Wainwright was magnificent in Game 2, handing over a 2-1 lead in the ninth to closer Ryan Franklin. After record two outs, Franklin gave up a fly-ball to left field, which Holliday seemed to track, only to misplay the flyball as it fell toward the outfield grass, deflecting off his body. The Dodgers would go on to score two runs in the inning, both unearned, and take a commanding 2-0 series lead before completing the sweep in St. Louis two days later. Over the bitter gasps and moans of Cardinal fans, Mike Shannon and Vin Scully called the play (and both can be heard on the MLB.com link above).

OCTOBER HISTORY

Whether it was the jubilation felt upon Ozzie's homer or the stomach-punch of Holliday's blunder, is it any wonder that ballplayers and coaches often talk of the Gods of Baseball? How is it that such long-shot occurrences take place at moments when seasons hang in the balance, where a home run or a dropped fly-ball mean exponentially more to a team's fortunes than they would on a cold April evening or a sweltering July afternoon? Of course, we will never know. But, for me, it shows that the postseason hinges on luck as much as skill and only cements my habit, since childhood, of wearing my "lucky" Cardinal gear in the month of October, when the games mean so much more and the fate of our Cardinals, as players and as a team, will be sealed in the annals of baseball history and remembered forever in the tales of October lore.

A Team of Free Agents

2009-10-25T17:12:40Z

Currently is that time in the off-season in which I am still interested in what is going on. Not in the playing baseball sense of the word, I could(n't) care less who wins between New York and Philadelphia. Now, if the Angels pull it off, I might root for them, but then I probably would not watch 4/7 of the games because of them being west coast 9:00 PMers. I am, instead, talking about what the home town Birds on the Bat will be doing in the off-season. Since so many people have already chimed in on what they would like the Cardinals to do with what money is perceived to be available, I decided to take a different route and look at what a team of free agents would look like.

I decided, that to make this more real, I would not include anyone that has an option, whether it is a team or player option. That way, everyone chosen is truly, at this moment, a free agent. I am also assuming 700 AB at each position, and an NL club, thus no woosy DH position. Lastly, I am assuming a one-year deal for everyone and no limit on payroll; I'm pretty much trying to see how much I could win right now with who's available in free agency. In essence, I gave Mark Cuban an expansion team and one season.

Catcher:

At the back end of the battery position, after much serious thought, I am going to go with Benjie Molina and Greg Zaun.

Benjie - $5 million - 500 AB, .280/.300/.440/.740

Zaun - $2.5 million - 200 AB, .250/.340/.410/.750

Catcher total - 700 AB, .311 OBP/ .431 SLG

1st Base:

At first base, it came down to Adam LaRoche and Nick Johnson for me. I also looked at the aging, injury-prone Carlos Delgado and Aubrey Huff, but decided quickly that AL and NJ would both be better choices. After looking at what I would project the two at, I went with Nick Johnson.

Johnson - $6 million - 500 AB, .290/.420/.465/.885

First Base total - 700 AB, .390 OBP, .459 SLG

2nd Base:

I looked extensively at Placido Polanco and Orlando Hudson. The way I figure it, I want 3 MI anyway, so I'm going with both. Polanco can fill in at SS in a pinch, or at 3B.

Hudson - $5 million - 500 AB, .285/.360/.440/.800

Polanco - $4 million - 200 AB (2nd), 100 AB (SS), .300/.350/.410/.760

Second Base total - 700 AB, .357 OBP, .431 SLG

Shortstop:

This one comes down to Marco Scutaro or Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera is a sure-fielding .720 OPS guy at SS. Not a bad guy to have as long as you have some hitters. Scutaro is an average-fielding .720 OPS guy for his career...then comes his outlandish .790 OPS of this past season. If you're a believer in Brady Anderson and other one year wonders...then this is the guy for you.

Orlando Cabrera - $6 million - 500 AB - .285/.330/.390/.720

Shortstop total - 700 AB, .341 OBP, .392 SLG

3rd Base:

Mark Derosa we all know (and some of us love) here at VeB. Mark DeRosa is a highly probably .800 OPS player at 4, positions, (2B, 3B, LF, RF) none of which he plays very well defensively. Chone Figgins is a .750-.770 OPS guy who has serious speed and a decent glove at 3B. While he's been a 3B for the last 3 years, he has logged 800-4500 innings in the field at 3B, 2B, CF, OF in his career. Adrian Beltre, the non-steroid era version, is a .760 OPS hitter with a great glove at 3B. He is the only true 3B in the group above. I want two of these guys.

Beltre - $8 million - 350 AB (3B), 200AB (1B) - .265/.315/.445/.760

Figgins - $5 million - 350 AB (3B),100 AB (SS) - .300/.385/.385/.770

Third Base total - 700 AB, .350 OBP, .415 SLG

Outfield:

Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Bobby Abreu, and Johnny Damon are all type A left fielders who rock in one sense of the word, or more. Vladdy Guerrero is another type A free agent outfielder. Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, Reed Johnson, and Mike Cameron look like the best true free agents who can play CF. Out of all of those players, I need to come up with 5 of them to play the outfield on a regular basis.

Cameron - $5 million - 500 AB (CF) - .250/.340/.460/.800

Johnson - $1 million - 200 AB (CF) - .280/.350/.410/.760

Abreu - $12 million - 350 AB (RF) - .290/.380/.450/.830

Holliday - $16 million - 250 AB (LF), 350 AB (RF) -.325/.400/.560/.960

Bay - $10 million - 450 AB (LF) - .280/.380/.515/.895

Left Field total - 700 AB, .387 OBP, .531 SLG

Center Field total - 700 AB, .343 OBP, .446 SLG

Right Field total - 700 AB, .390 OBP, .505 SLG

Team total (minus pitchers) - 5600 AB, .359 OBP, .451 SLG = .810 OPS as a team

That is $85.5 million wrapped up in the offensive side of the ball. I said I was going to have unlimited payroll.

Obviously the outfield defense leaves plenty to be desired (even with Cameron in CF for most of the innings) and the infield defense isn't the best, but isn't horrible. The left side should be good, whereas the right side shouldn't. Any Molina behind the plate defensively is good.

Starting Pitching

Looking at the Type B free agent starters that are truly availble, I only see: Erik Bedard, Doug Davis, Rich Harden, Randy Johnson, Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, and Joel Pineiro. Randy Wolf and John Lackey are obvious signings, IMO. Justin Duchscherer was also there, but his high in IP is 141. No thanks as a starter. I'm also of the opinion that Rich Harden should be moved to the closer role (as has been thrown around here a bit.)

Lackey - $10 million - 200 IP, 163 K, 47 BB, 3.56 FIP

Wolf - $7 million - 200 IP, 158 K, 67 BB, 4.02 FIP

Bedard - $5 million - 160 IP, 160 K, 62 BB, 3.72 FIP

Pineiro - $7 million - 190 IP, 95 K, 38 BB, 3.83 FIP

Pettitte - $8 million - 205 IP, 141 K, 66 BB, 3.92 FIP

The starters' averages would be: 191 IP @ 3.81 FIP

That only adds up to 955 IP out of my starting rotation, and typically staffs throw around 1450 per season. My bullpen will have to work 500 IP or so. Therefore:

Bullpen:

I will start out with Justin Duchscherer because he can be a workhorse out of the pen, I would assume, based on him throwing 140+ innings this past season, and him having worked out of the pen before. He would also fill my "Brad Thompson" role of spot starter when someone goes down with an injury. Rich Harden would be my closer. I think he'd be a rock in that role, assuming he could stay healthier with it. Other than that, I go with all the Type A's...and for a reason after looking at stats.

Spot Starter/Long Relief

Duchscherer - $4 million - 100 IP - 83 K, 22 BB, 3.76 FIP

Middle Relief

Darren Oliver - $2 million - 75 IP - 58 K, 23 BB, 4.18 FIP (L)

Kevin Gregg - $3 million - 75 IP - 75 K, 33 BB, 4.39 FIP

Jose Valverde - $4 million - 70 IP - 78 K, 26 BB, 4.01 FIP

Setup Men

Mike Gonzalez - $4 million - 60 IP - 73 K, 27 BB, 3.48 FIP (L)

Rafael Soriano - $4 million - 60 IP - 77 K, 20 BB, 3.52 FIP

Closer

Rich Harden - $5 million - 60 IP - 73 K, 23 BB, 3.53 FIP

The relievers' averages would be: 71 IP @ 3.86 FIP

The pitching staff's totals: 1450 IP @ 3.84 FIP

$63 million was spent on my pitching staff. It has a lot of power arms, which would help out the defense incredibly, with 6 players (5 in the pen) with a K/inn or more. In 1450 innings, the defense would only have to make 3,115 outs (out of 4,350).

My total salary ends up being $148.5 million for the season, but I think we put together a pretty decent team. I wouldn't know how to go about figuring out what each player's WAR or how many wins this team should get next year, (so if anyone wants to do that (hint, hint) please go ahead) but I would be willing to wager that if everyone were to stay healthy playing at this level, the team should do more than just "alright."

To bring this full circle:

There are some pretty decent options out there this season on the free agent market. Obviously, the Cardinals have a salary cap put into place by Bill Dewitt and the other owners. Obviously, the conjecture around here is $90-100 million will be that cap. We cannot be sure. There are many options listed above and many possible ways to put these pieces together with what the Cards already have. I am not going to project, here, what we are going to put together in St. Louis; however, there are quite a few options out there.

Report: LaRussa Will Return

2009-10-25T06:28:45Z

According to this ESPN article (which states PD sources that I cannot find), Tony LaRussa will return to manage the Cards in '10. I know many of you are not fans of his, but let me say I am excited that he and Duncan appear to be coming back. You can't argue with eight division titles, two pennants, and one world series championship in 14 years. I look forward to both coming back.

More information will come later today, I would think. Have at it.

Skip's Lament: The Curse of Too Many Decent Players

2009-10-23T20:42:18Z

While I was reading this piece comparing the Cardinals to the Phillies, I was remembering the old Bill James comment that one challenge of improving a team is not that of fixing obvious problems (like the Cardinals currently have in LF), but of how one handles the need to improve overall where there aren't positions that are obvious problems.

For the last few years, the Cardinals have an offense that is increasingly built around Albert Pujols, which limits their ability to have big innings and can make the offense easy to negate. As the linked piece points out, the Phillies have more hitters who are dangerous than the Cardinals do. The Cardinals need a sequence like they had a few years ago: Walker, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen.

The problem is not that the current Cardinals have a lot of bad position players:

Skip is a nice little hitter at second
Ryan, if he can keep up his current level of hitting, has a glove that carries his bat
Molina has a decent OBP and a great glove
Rasums, while he did not hit particularly well in 2009, needs to play to grow into a good hitter
Ludwick (2009 version) was OK
Freese could hit at above replacement level

And so on. It's not like it's obvious that any of these players in particular needs to be replaced.

The problem is that none of these players are currently a strong offensive player. Skip, Ryan, or Molina, if they are the worst hitter in your lineup, aren't going to hurt you. But when they are amongst the best hitters in your lineup, you have a problem.

This would seem like a difficult problem to solve. Plugging Freese into third doesn't solve this problem, and none of the free agent third basemen do, either. Putting Holliday in LF is a step in the right direction, but it doesn't solve the problem alone

The mistake is that the team reviews things position by position--the problem with Skip isn't that he is bad, it's that the team needs some great hitters someplace other than 1B, and Ludwick, Skip, etc., aren't helping. We've got to get some great hitting at three positions from among LF, CF, SS, 2B, RF, 3B, and C. In short, some decent players need to be replaced, not because they are bad, but because they aren't great.

Closer Fail

2009-10-21T17:04:21Z

It seems that the closers this postseason are sucking pretty bad, so I got curious and looked at their numbers. Obviously, the Franklin meltdown isn't reflected very well in this table, but only Rivera really stands out this year as an outstanding shutdown closer, though Lidge, in a relatively small sample, has held it together. Interesting that it's looking like the two remaining closers who have not allowed an earned run will be headed to the WS, while the unexpected meltdown guys are gonna be packing their bags soon, or have already done so.

I also thought the 30% inherited runners scoring was a pretty ugly number.

PITCHER	G	W	L	ERA	SV	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	IR	IS
Franklin	2	0	1	0.00	0	1.1	3	2	0	2	1	0	0
Lidge	4	1	0	0.00	1	3	1	0	0	3	3	3	0
Broxton	3	0	1	4.05	2	6.2	6	3	3	1	5	4	1
Rivera	6	0	0	0.00	2	8	5	0	0	3	10	6	1
Nathan	2	0	0	9.00	0	2	5	2	2	1	2	3	2
Street	3	0	2	13.48	1	2.2	6	4	4	3	1	0	0
Fuentes	4	0	0	2.45	2	3.2	1	1	1	4	4	1	0
Papelbon	2	0	1	13.50	0	2	4	3	3	2	1	3	2
CUMULATIVE	26	1	5	4.17	8	28	31	15	13	19	27	20	6

October 21st: Anthony Reyes Day

2009-10-20T18:45:21Z

Anthony Reyes presumably throws a four-seam fastball up in the zone against a Detroit Tiger batsman on October 21, 2006 (via newyork.yankees.mlb.com ).

It was late October in the year 2006 and the "Tigers-in-Three" conventional wisdom had reached a fever pitch amongst the baseball commentariat that had already confidentally, knowingly picked the Padres in two and the Metropolitans in three in the weeks prior. Nonetheless, it was the 83-win Cardinals who emerged as champions of the National League, escapees of one of the most dramatic National League Championship Series of our lifetimes, which featured a Game 7 for the ages that still causes Carlos Beltran to wake up at night in a cold sweat, having dreamt of an Adam Wainwright curveball coming right at him, only to break seemingly against the laws of physics, over the plate, through the strikezone, for a called "Strike Three!" After that knock-down, drag-out heavyweight fight, the Cardinals trudged onward and northward to the city of Detroit.

A seven-game series inevitably throws a club's pitching rotation and staff into disarray, as the field manager is thrust into a win-at-all-costs mentality and consequently leaves no arrows in his pitching quiver for the World Series that is to follow. And so the Cardinals were left with an up-and-comer, or, down-and-outer--depending on where you, as a Cardinal fan, came down on the dramatically polarizing Anthony Reyes debate--for the pivotal (and what World Series game is not pivotal?) Game 1.

Tyler Kepner, of the New York Times (newspaper of the once-again free archives), offers a wonderful setting of the stage in his game story:

Anthony Reyes made his first start this season at a place called Bricktown Ballpark in Oklahoma City, against a team called the RedHawks. He gave up nine hits and his team lost.

Reyes was not the preferred choice for the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of the World Series on Saturday. He had not won in 47 days, and his five regular-season victories were the fewest for a Game 1 starter in 77 years.

But Reyes was rested, unlike the other Cardinals starters, so there he was on the mound at Comerica Park...

Loathe as I am to measure a pitcher's individual pitching performance with "Wins" and "Losses." There are other stats which demonstrate the improbability of Reyes being tapped by TLR and Dave Duncan to start the first game of the World Series. That year, Reyes started 17 games for St. Louis, throwing 85.1 big-league innings. He struck out 7.59 and walked 3.59 per 9 innings. Reyes also gave up many a homer, 1.79 per 9 innings, in fact. All of this amounted to a 5.49 FIP, or, a 5.06 ERA, if you are so inclined. Furthermore, his groundball percentage was a mere 34.5 percent.

His manager had turned to Reyes in Game 4 of the NLCS, with St. Louis leading the series two games to one, and Reyes had neither dominated nor flopped, lasting only 4 innings while surrendering only two runs despite issuing four walks and giving up two home runs. (He left the game to WonderBrad Thompson tied at two, and Thompson wasted little time allowing the Mets to take a 5-2 lead. Thompson was the losing pitcher in a 12-5 thumping that tied the series. This is part of the postseason experience Thompson possesses and that Straussie seemed to so covet in the days between season's end and playoffs' start.) The walks and homers surrendered to the Mets left no reason for the Cardinal faithful to anticipate anything but more of the same from Reyes: walks, strikeouts, and homers.

To make matters worse, the Wild Card Tigers had ripped through Billy Beane's Athletics, sweeping Oakland in the ALCS, which afforded Jim Leyland the luxury of having his pitching staff perfectly alligned for a three-game World Series sweep. For Game 1, that meant Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander, he of the high-90s (and sometimes 100) fastball which was complimented by a deceitful change-up. Verlander's 3.63 ERA somewhat masked a 4.35 FIP, but Verlander was democratically only striking out 6 batters per 9 innings while inducing grounders about 42 percent of the time (compared to the fascist K and GB rates of Reyes). Verlander was also walking 2.99 per nine innings. The peripheral stats made a David-vs-Goliath ERA mismatch something less biblical in nature, even if it was, perhaps even justifiably, Exhibt A in the case for the Tigers-in-Three.

The temperature was a cool, but comfortable, 54 degrees in Detroit that evening, and Verlander cooled the Cardinal bats in the first, inducing two groundouts before striking out The Great Pujols, to end a 1-2-3 visitors' half of the first. Reyes then took the mound. After retiring Granderson on a grounder to Pujols, Reyes surrendered a double to Craig Monroe, induced a popout by former Cardinal Placido Polanco, walked Magglio Ordonez, and gave up an RBI single to Carlos Guillen, which gave Detroit a 1-0 lead, before Ivan Rodriguez fortuitously lined out to second base to bring the first inning to a close.

In the top of the second, Scott Rolen tied the game with a home run off of Verlander and Reyes made quick work of the bottom third of the Tiger order, 1-2-3. In the third, the Cardinal bats opened up the game. Yadier Molina led things off with a single and advanced to second base by starting left fielder, So Taguchi. After David Eckstein struck out looking, Chris Duncan doubled home Molina, for a 2-1 Cardinal lead. Then, The Great Pujols launched a ball deep into the Motor City night, expanding the Cardinal lead to three runs, 4-1. That would be all Reyes would need.

Beginning in the second, Reyes retired 17 consecutive Tigers, a streak that was broken by a seventh inning Carlos Guillen single. By that time, however, an error-filled sixth had doubled the St. Louis lead to 7-1. Reyes retired four consecutive Tigers after the Guillen single and entered the bottom of the ninth still ahead 7-1, having not allowed a Tiger past first base since the first inning. Naturally, Reyes regressed to his mean and gave up a solo home run to Craig Monroe, making the score 7-2, and was pulled by Tony La Russa for Braden Looper, who finished out the Cardinal victory. Reyes threw 91 pitches that evening, 67 for strikes. He collected only 5 democratic outs via groundball and 19 by the flyball. He struck out only four Detroit batsmen, but walked merely one. The Tigers mustered only four hits on the rookie, in an offensive effort that was diagnosed as rust-induced, due to the long layoff between ALCS Game 4 and World Series Game1.

Timesman Kepner writes:

[T]he Tigers could not explain how Reyes, without an overpowering fastball, handled them so easily. Reyes threw almost all fastballs after the first inning, taking a suggestion from the pitching coach Dave Duncan, and he rarely missed a spot.

He was a marvel of efficiency, throwing only 90 pitches and allowing four hits and a walk with four strikeouts. From the last out of the first inning to the first out of the seventh, he retired 17 Tigers in a row. It was the longest such streak in the World Series since Cincinnati's José Rijo set down 20 Oakland hitters in 1990.

Tom Goldman, of NPR, colorfully describes how Reyes tamed the Tigers:

Here's a World Series math puzzler. When is five greater than 40,000? Answer: when Anthony Reyes is pitching. Before last night's game, five was the number most associated with the Cardinals' rookie right-hander. It was the woeful amount of wins he had during the regular season, the fewest of any Game 1 starting pitcher in World Series history.

But by the end of the game, the roughly 40,000 Detroit fans at Comerica Park were left shell-shocked by what Reyes did to their Tigers. He defanged them, de-clawed them, turning them into pussycats who only got four hits and two runs. With his Cardinal-red socks pulled up high the old fashioned way, and wearing his cap with the most unfashionable flat brim, Reyes at one point retired seventeen straight Detroit batters.

And so the Tigers-in-Three movement was stopped dead in its tracks with an unlikely gem by a former top prospect. As Thomas Harding wrote for stlcardinals.com, "Thanks to outstanding pitching by Cardinals righty Anthony Reyes, the coronation of the Tigers is not such a foregone conclusion now, is it?" Sportswriters, fans, and players alike were astounded to learn that the Tigers now had to win four games out of a maximum of six remaining games to clinch the title.

Reyes' was a classic performance, but, sadly, not one that was a harbinger of future success for the young four-seamer in the birds-on-the bat. He would appear in 22 games for the Cardinals during the 2007 season and perform poorly, with a FIP of 5.25 and an ERA over six. In 2008, he was traded to the Indians for Luis Perdomo, a young fireballer out of the bullpen who the organization would not even protect from the Rule V Draft. Reyes pitched well for Cleveland in '08, but was lit up in 2009 and now faces a murky future.

The fate of Anthony Reyes was unsurprising. His most important game, even if it was not his best performance, collected a game score of 69, consisted of ~~one less~~ 4 strikeouts and 3 groundouts to go with ~~nearly 20~~ 15 flyball outs.* Anthony Reyes on the LaDunc St. Louis Cardinals was a mixing of oil and water, a flyball/strikeout pitcher known for firing his four-seamer high in the zone for swings-and-misses installed into a system founded on the philosophy of pitching to contact, throwing sinking two-seamers down in the zone. Despite a relationship that was, in retrospect, doomed from its inception, Reyes turned in a pivotal performance on the sport's greatest stage, helping the National League's greatest franchise capture the tenth World Series championship in its long and storied history. Every October, I think of that unlikely band of Cardinals, and give them the appreciation I feel they deserve for that magical run. The day of October 21st goes to Anthony Reyes.

*Hat tip to Solanus for correcting the out breakdown via Retrosheet.

Holliday and Craig or DeRosa and Ludwick

2009-10-20T18:27:41Z

Here are the WPA numbers for Teixeira and Holliday from Fangraphs.

Teixeira

2006 1.14

2007 2.36

2008 5.87

2009 3.58

Holliday

2006 2.37

2007 4.64

2008 4.87

2009 3.51

Boras said Holliday is this year's Teixeira. Looking at the numbers, I might have to agree with him although I think Teixeira is the more valuable player. Mark Teixeira got $180 mill over 8 years ($22.5 million per season). It's a different economy out there and the Yankees may be the only team able to shell out that kind of money for a player like Teixeira. Let's say Holliday and Teixeira are really 3.5 WPA players as opposed 5 WPA players and that the Yankees overpaid. They always do.

All that said, one has to assume that Boras will find some GM to offer 6 years, $120 mill for Holliday. If that's what Holliday is worth, what will Pujols get? Let's put Pujols aside and focus on the Holliday issue in the short term. If our current payroll sits at $70 mill and we add Holliday, that's $90 mill. We still need 1 starting pitcher. Assume we go bargain basement for $5 mill plus incentives on Smoltz. Even if Dewitt is willing to swallow that $95 mill plus pill for 2010, how will he feel in 2011 when (with raises and arbitration) it swells to $100 mill? Then we have to find money thereafter to resign Albert Pujols? Even in the short term it gets troublesome. No dry powder to pickup even a midlevel player at the deadline to give the team a boost for the stretch.

One way to easy the payroll pressure from signing Holliday would be in RF. Trade Luddy and turn RF over to Craig / Mather / Jay. You save $5 mill and now have wiggle room with payroll down the stretch. If we don't sign Holliday, then one would assume they resign DeRosa and place him in LF as a stop gap. I think arguments can be made on both sides of the issue. Who would you rather have in the starting outfield: Holliday and Craig or DeRosa and Ludwick?

p.s. If option 1 is selected, the failsafe position (should the rookie platoon fail in RF) would be move Skip to right and plug Lugo in at 2B.

Anyone love the Statis-Pro Baseball Board Game?

2009-10-20T13:25:32Z

SABR-Minded Baseball Fans interested in becoming the manager/general manager of a very fun league should read this message. My father and I co-manage the St. Louis Cardinals in a Dynasty Fantasy League, that's adapted from the old Statis-Pro Baseball game, using a players career stats (to date for current ones) to 'play' baseball games live against people from all over the country. This is not baseball "fantasy" like newer generations may understand (ESPN, Yahoo, etc.), but an interactive board game where the manager makes all rotation, lineup, hit/run, steal, defensive allignment, substitution, injury, 25-man/40-man roster decisions, etc. etc. There is an opening for Texas Rangers/Washington Senators dynasty (Nolan Ryan, Ruben Sierra, Teixiera, etc.) and the league will pick back up in December/January. Currently we are in our "offseason". Anyone interested can email me to ask questions (mcintoshts@missouri.edu) or can email the league's creator and Expos/Nationals Manager, Ty Waterman at his address below.

THE GREAT AMERICAN FANTASY LEAGUE: TEXAS RANGERS
    How would you like to manage the greatest players in Texas Rangers/expansion Washington Senators history (1961-2009)? Mark Texeira, Michael Young, Nolan Ryan, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Darold Knowles, Ruben Sierra and many more can play for you vs. the greatest players from 13 other American League teams (plus interleague games vs. all-time NL West teams).
     THE GREAT AMERICAN FANTASY LEAGUE (GAFL) is a terrific board game adapted from Statis-Pro Baseball, simulating their career performances (with their primary team) of baseball's all-time greats from 1901 to the present. Frank Howard will take a vicious cut against a Goose Gossage fastball; Rafael Palmeiro will take a whack at Mariano Rivera's patented cutter; Ted Williams will rip the air vs. Charlie Hough's knuckler; and closer Francisco Cordero will try to blow a fastball past Mickey Mantle.
     GAFL is played with fast-action cards (not dice). The results are read off the cards of either the pitcher or the hitter, depending on who controls the at-bats. The better pitchers control the action the majority of the time. GAFL simulates a 162-game season, with the Rangers playing in the AL West. We play one date in a MLB schedule per week, with periodic breaks. The home team manager runs the game, the visitors can either send in a lineup/game instructions for a solitaire game; or they can play head to head, via the phone or in person. A manager plays about 20 home games per year, and about 40 games per year with a break in October and November.
     The American League is in the midst of playing their second season. We started our first season in 2003. Our current Rangers manager had to resign for personal reasons, creating a vacancy 60 games into our 162-game schedule. The Rangers current team leaders are Ruben Sierra (.272, 5 HR's, 27 RBI's); Ferguson Jenkins (5-3, 2.55 in 77 innings), Darold Knowles (7 saves, 1-0, 2.38). Player cards are realistic but measured against the all-time greats of the game. Pitchers are rated on ERA+ (vs. pitchers of their own time period) and winning pct. (vs. the team winning pct.) Strikeouts, walks, stamina, hits allowed, homers allowed are calculated via Statis-Pro's formulas. The same for batters homers, walks, whiffs, steals, triples, singles, doubles, throwing arms, range, errors, and clutch batting.
      GAFL is designed for busy lives. GAFL managers have six days (Thursday thru Tuesday) to play their home games. I design and provide AL laminated cards for all 14 teams, plus 18 cardboard game charts and a set of Statis-Pro fast action cards to run the game. All for the nominal fee of $60 per year! GAFL is a non-profit operation and all proceeds are poured back into improving the game. The managers are dedicated SABR members from all over the United States, plus our Blue Jays manager from Ontario, Canada.
      Current and old-time players are in this game, based on a minimum of five years with their primary team. New cards are updated every fall. For example, Michael Young and Hank Blalock's cards will be updated shortly and play will resume in early December, 2008. I train all managers prior to beginning play. Support is available thru me and our rules committee, to help with questions, what to do if you are on vacation, etc.
     GAFL has many exciting features...wild plays, rainouts, ejections, great catches, injuries, pitcher stamina issues, range factors, home runs can be taken away by many of these great pitchers and turned into singles, bunting for hits, extra base advance percentages are calculated for every type of hit (smash, normal, Texas League and bloop hit types). You should also consider lefty vs. lefty ... or righty vs. righty pitcher/batter matchups when managing.
      The White Sox won the AL West in Season One and lost in the AL Championship Series to the Cleveland Indians. On June 11th of our schedule in Season Two, the White Sox are leading the AL West again, closely trailed by the KC Royals and Oakland A's all-time franchises. The Rangers had a decent April but slumped in May and early June. But this franchise has good power, a solid bullpen, a rotation of Ryan, Jenkins, Kevin Brown, Kenny Rogers, and Jon Matlack or Charlie Hough that has done very well in Season Two with a team ERA of 3.05.
     If managing the Texas Rangers intrigues you ... if you want to match your managing skills vs. 25 other skilled GAFL managers... contact Ty Waterman: ty_waterman@hotmail.com or call me at 508-455-1918. It won't hurt to talk and learn a bit more before you decide to join. First come, first serve.
     Games take about an hour and a half to play... home managers write game stories for other managers to view via E-mail; I keep exact league stats.. we send out weekly standings, weekly transactions, game stories, pitcher rest rules, a scoreboard, and pitcher/team matchups for the next set of games. This is a league for serious baseball fans. (No trades but we have a 25 man active roster and 15 players in our AAA that can be called up from our 40-man rosters.)
     GAFL is in our fall break right now while new/updated cards are being made. We want to train and get you ready to play after Thanksgiving. You will make many new baseball friends in GAFL whom you will enjoy knowing for years. We can't promise the GAFL Texas Rangers franchise will win the GAFL championship but we can promise you a great time trying!
                                                                               Ty Waterman, creator of GAFL, and
                                                                               Manager of the Montreal Expos/
                                                                               Washington Nationals GAFL team.

What's the best thing (or things) you've seen at a ballgame?

2009-10-19T23:36:23Z

I'm unusually bored right now, so I decided to have some fun and post some good memories at Cards games I've been to. Feel free to do the same.

The best moment I've seen is Albert's grand slam in Cincy in July of this season (link ). I was sitting on the 3rd base side, and if you watch the clip, you will see Homer Bailey instead of the fired-up Cardinals crowd (FSN Ohio, I presume). I was sitting next to two Reds fans, who feared bad things would happen as soon as David Weathers came in to pitch. They left right after the grand slam happened.

I called two home runs at my only time at (new) Busch, in a game against the Royals. I had standing room tix that night, and chatted with a few guys at the game. Just for fun, I called that Yadier Molina would hit a home run in the inning. Sure enough, he hit it, and I shrugged my shoulders and said "Beginner's luck". I called Jim Edmonds' homer four innings later, and by that time I had quite a crowd around me. A friend joked about it, calling me "The Governor" because of the crowd.

Finally, I saw my final game at Busch II come to a fitting end. July 3, 2005 was the final game I saw there, with the Birds going up against the Rockies. I don't remember much about that game, oddly enough, just the last play - which was an Abraham Nunez (remember him?) walkoff single.

2010 Payroll , What do we have to spend?

2009-10-18T17:04:33Z

Players	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Pujols	$16M	$16M($5)	FA
Carpenter	$14.5M	$15M	$15M($1M)
Lohse	$9,187,500	$12,188,000	$12,188,000	FA
Wainwright	$4,837,500	$6,688,000	$9(O)	$12M(O)
Molina	$4,312,500	$5,313,000	$7M(750K)	FA
Franklin	$3M	$3.5M
Miller, T	$2M	$2M($1M)	FA
Reyes, D	$2M	FA
Ludwick	Arb 2[$5.5]	Arb 3	FA
Thompson, B	Arb 2[NT]	Arb 3	FA
Schumaker	Arb 1[$2.5M]	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
Kinney	Arb 1[750K]	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
Lugo	$400K	FA
Thurston	$400k	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
McClellan	$400K	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
Ryan, B	$400K	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3	FA
Rasmus	$400K	$400K	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3
Motte	$400K	$400K	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3
Boggs	$400K	$400K	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3
Hawksworth	$400K	$400k	Arb 1	Arb 2	Arb 3
TOTAL
	$60,837,500	$47.689	$13.938
w/ Arb	$69,587,500
Left Field
4th OFer
Backup C
SP # 4
SP # 5

Players Leaving: Holliday, Glaus, Pineiro, Khalil Greene, DeRosa, Smoltz, Wellemeyer, Ankiel, and LaRue

Notes:

- If it says $7(750K) the ( ) means options and whatever is inside ie 750K means the team buyout.

- Rasmus and Motte will most likely be Super Two's if they stay on the 25 man roster during most of 2010

- Arbitration normally goes 40%, 60%, and 80% what you would get on the free market.

- Total Payroll currently does not show players receiving Arbitration

- Total Payroll for future years beyond 2010 assume options were decline and buy out added into Total Payroll

- Starting Payroll in 2009 was $88,528,409 but in 2008 it was $99,624,449

- If Players had bonuses they were divided by years of contract. Than added according to each year

- My guesses for Arb: Ludwick $5.5M, Schumaker $2.5M, Thompson Non-Tendered than released, Kinney $750K

Most of the info was gathered at Cot's Contracts. I would appreciate any help in filling in the blank spots of Arbitration. I will update this when ever new info is acquired or we acquire someone.

Current Roster

1B: Pujols

2B: Schumaker

3B: (Third Basemen)

SS: Ryan

LF: (Left Fielder)

CF: Rasmus

RF: Ludwick

C: Molina

Bench: Lugo, Thurston, (Backup Catcher), (4th OFer)

SP1: Carpenter

SP2: Wainwright

SP3: Lohse

SP4: (Fourth Starter)

SP5: (Fifth Starter)

Closer: Franklin

RHP: McClellan

RHP: Motte

RHP: Hawksworth

RHP: Boggs

Longman: Thompson

LOOGY: Miller

LOOGY: Reyes

Just kind of a rough draft to throw out there. I probably have some mistakes and will need to take guesses on the Arbitration of the players. Schumaker could be a difficult one to guess. Not sure if Thompson will even be back on the team myself.

Trading Albert Pujols

2009-10-15T21:54:41Z

Hold your horses for a second there, Johnny! Open the garage door, turn off your engine and spit out those sleeping pills, darn it. This is merely in reference to Goold's piece on the matter. It's one of those unthinkable things in Cardinal Nation, but if it genuinely makes you a better team (and with the haul the best player in the game is likely to bring in, it undoubtedly would), would you do it? For all we know, we have no chance of extending his contract if he doesn't see St. Louis as a team that can compete long-term. Great management and great scouting are fine, but $150-200MM is always going to be an advantage over the $100MM maximum the Cardinals' front office will be forced to work with in the foreseeable future.

So! For a little hypothetical fun (or maybe it's more akin to waterboarding), let's think about what El Hombre could return to the Cardinals. I will also be operating under the assumption that Brett Wal -- err, um, Allen Craig will be ready to step into the 1B job on day one of 2010, so getting a replacement in return is not of the utmost importance.

Let's face it, we're talking about Albert F. Pujols, here. So pardon me if I'm being a little overzealous with what I expect in return. Consider me an even more out of touch Ricciardi.

Giants - Lincecum, Sandoval/Bumgarner, PTBNL (b prospect)

Marlins - Ramirez, Johnson, Uggla (we can also toss them Boog, since he will be unnecessary with the acquisition of the second best player in the game [even if he doesn't have that fire to play])

Dodgers - Kershaw, Kemp, PTBNL (b prospect)

Rays - Longoria, Crawford, PTBNL (b prospect)

Can't really think of any other teams that have enough to return to the Cards, contracts considered, and are in need of a 1B. And out of this group, only the Dodgers fit the mold for being able to afford him and having a competetive team (Albert would also looove to play with his bff Manny).

Dig, if you will, the picture of Carp, Waino and Kershaw engaged in a Cy Young chase. Touch, if you will, my stomach. Feel how it trembles inside? That's because I'm hungry. Now make me a damn sandwich while i ponder Matt Kemp hitting third and Matt Holliday cleaning up for him. That's some serious Matt-age there. Almost ridiculous I might add.

What other packages are out there? Is anything worth ~Albert Pujols~?

And is it really only October 15th? Really? The 15th? Wow.

Poll

WWMD?

Oh my goodness!

107 votes

107 votes | Poll has closed

2 (well 3 technically) moves that change our team for the better in 2010

2009-10-14T00:52:39Z

Not sure if this deserves a fanpost, but I was thinking (due to local talk radio in St. Louis)...what major moves do the Cardinals need to be as good/better next year. It seems to me that beyond the obvious (resign Holliday or trade/sign a productive 4 hitter who plays the OF), the bullpen seems to be quite the popular place to upgrade. Surprisingly to me, most people say we need to shore up the back end. I am not a fan of McLellan as he still seems to lack the control you need in a high leverage guy in the bullpen (those walks and first pitch balls really put ya back when you're comming into situations with runners already on base)....the LOOGYs were great this year, and even though he melted down, Franklin was an all star with an 88 save %....I dont know the exact numbers but people say to move him back into the 8th inning (which i suppose is OK, but Franklin still needs credit for a pretty nice year). Anyways, to the meat. If we are going to look for a strikeout, shutdown closer, we will need to trade for a cheap guy...a la Jonathan Papelbon, who just so happens seems to be speculation out there that the Red Sox could dangle him for an impact bat...Ludwick anyone??

I would be in favor of this kind of trade, with some contingencies. First, must bring in an impact bay (Bay) or resign Holliday...I don't think our system can bring in any impact value right now, so our options seem to be limited in that regard. But if we can do that, that seems to shore up a pretty nice back end of the bullpen (remember how short the games were vs the Dodgers b/c of their bullpen???) Motte (who i think will make some nice strides forward next year, Franklin, then Papelbon?? Seems like a wet dream for TLR and Dunc....now for the whole in RF.

I say bye bye to Ankiel..and I'm not sold on Mather as an everyday player nor even platooning with Jay or Craig...Abreu seems to be a nice (although probably not cheap) short term option, but should fit into our budget in terms of dollars and years

1 Schu - 4

2 Rasums -8

3 Pujols -3

4 Holliday -7 (or Bay)

5 Abreu-9

6 Freese - 5

7-Molina -2

8 Ryan -6

Maybe switch Freese and Rasmus (even move Rasmus to 5 and slide Abreu to 6) so Freese can have the best place to hit in baseball...2 moves, substaitally changes our team (not signing DeRosa and Pinero should offset losing our 1st round pick for signing Abreu)....i actually think i may like

1. Shcu

2. Ryan

3. Pujols

4.Holliday (or Bay)

5. Rasmus

6. Abreu

7 Freese

8 Molina (i hate having him 8th b/c he is so slow and forces a perfect bunt for the pitchers to advance him, and then even on 2nd its not a garuntee he scores on a single by schu or ryan)

Joe Mather Thy Name is Chris Duncan

2009-10-13T13:46:29Z

In 2007, Joey Bombs lit Springfield (and the internets) afire by posting a .994 OPS at Springfield under the tutelage of hitting coach Derrick May*. Mather hit over .300, slugged over .600 and blasted 18 small white orbs into the stands of Hammons Field. With Colby Rasmus in center,** eyes were squarely on the Springfield club and Mather took advantage. He displayed power accordant with his 6'4" 200lbs frame and a level of athleticism that made the big man look smooth (though not quite Rasmussian smooth) in the outfield. After being promoted to Memphis midway through the season, the bat receded towards career averages with a .771 OPS.

2008 would witness the return of Mather's first half prowess from the previous season. With a 1.041 OPS he showed a commensurate level of power and even improved his plate discipline boasting a .411 OBP with 32 walks against 36 strikeouts. At age 26, it was a fortuitous development for Mather who had ebbed toward obscurity due to lack of development. Mather would receive his call to the bigs in 2008 and post a respectable .780 OPS playing a variety of positions.

A lost season would follow in 2009, as Mather failed to lay claim to the 3rd base job that the Cardinals initially foisted upon him in Spring Training. Plagued by various maladies (back, wrist) and multiple surgeries, Mather would end the year with a meager 226 PAs across multiple minor league levels. The lion's share of which, 150 in Memphis, were largely forgettable (.505 OPS). With his hitting abilities sapped by the wrist injury, the outlook seems hazy at best.

%%%

Chris Duncan was hardly an unknown prior to the 2006 season. With a father who served as the Cardinals long time pitching coach and confidante extraordinaire to the enigmatic Tony La Russa, and a brother, Shelley Duncan, who was a borderline major leaguer in the Yankees system, Chris was, if anything a known***. The problem was that he was known as a poor defensive first baseman whose hitting skills had resulted in a consistent sub-.800 OPS.

Events (and people?!?!? -- kidding) would conspire to bring Chris, who had shown some signs of life with a .827 OPS at Memphis in 2005, to the majors. His efforts in 2006 were, in no small part, responsible for the Cardinals run into an through the post season to a World Series title. His defensive shortcomings in left field, while legendary, were forgivable when the trophy-humping slugger blasted a mammoth 22 home runs in 314 PAs that season.

A neck injury would plague Chris in 2007 and beyond. His numbers dwindled with the Cardinals from their initial high in 2006 of .952 OPS to a craterous .687 OPS in 2009. When traded to Boston for Julio Lugo, the Cardinals tacitly acknowledged that Chris was no longer the player he was in 2006 regardless of the reasons. A briefly promising career that began with calls to make him the everyday left fielder, ended with jeers and derision towards the player and management.

%%%

This brings us to the present. The Cardinals freshly eliminated from the playoffs, contemplate their future and the future of their big name, big bat mid season acquisition, Matt Holliday. With his impending free agency and the mountainous hordes of cash he is liable to command, some fans seem willing to let him walk. Without debating the merits of re-signing him, I remain perplexed by one proposed solution: Joe Mather.

We've seen Mather post close to league average offensive stats in his short major league stint. He's shown himself to be a capable fielder patrolling the outfield corner positions and an acceptable fill-in for center. We've even seen the tremendous power potential with a .233 ISO in the bigs. But we saw all that with Chris Duncan too.

Certainly there are differences, and you'd be right to argue that they disrupt the analogy, but Joe Mather's track record is about as proven as Duncan's was. A few half seasons of excellent production overshadowing adequate but uninspiring prior seasons. Nagging injuries followed by multiple surgeries are labels that Chris Duncan was unable to shed as a Cardinal and ones that threaten to adhere to Joe Mather as well. Mather is certainly a better athlete and his surgery was far more routine than the radical neck surgery Duncan underwent. However, Mather has not proven to be a durable commodity nor one of whom we have data for a precise major league projection.

The Cardinals are likely to give Mather several chances to prove his worth next season either at 3rd or in the outfield of Roger Dean Stadium. They'd be remiss not to. But, they are also certainly going to do so with the risk of his downside in mind, something that seems to have eluded some on the internet who carelessly fling his name out as a firm solution. A bit of trepidation is advised -- after all, as Papa Duncan so rationally**** reminded us this season, injuries can have a deleterious effect on player performance.

* FWIW, May has been creditted with several hitter's surging numbers in recent years at Springfield.

**The motley crew in left consisted of Sean Danielson, Mark Shorey and Cody Haerther.

***I'm sure there's a comma splice in there somewhere and I'm equally sure I don't know where.

**** Well, he did remind us anyway.

King's Ransoms: Are Left Fielders Worth It?

2009-10-12T22:45:52Z

October 2006 was a happier time (via newyork.mets.mlb.com). Yes, I got this off of the Mets' official site. How awesome is that? No, I never tire of posting photos from the magical 2006 run.

Lets go back to a happier time, a little more than three years ago, when the St. Louis Cardinals had dispatched of the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, defeated the New York Metropolitans in a high-drama, classic NLCS, and then defeated the heavily-favored Tigers in the World Series for the franchise's National League-leading tenth world title. It was a title that the MV3 deserved, even if the MV3 was little more than a shell of its former greatness. After the season, there were many decisions to be made about the World Champs' roster, and Walt Jocketty, much to the chagrin of many in the VEB community who recognized that the '06 Cards needed a shake-up to compete for the playoffs in '07, was largely content to bring the '06 champs back for a victory lap in '07. There were two immediate offensive upgrades available on the open market. Both happen to be left fielders, then and now, both went to NL Central rivals, and both offer cautionary tales on investing nine figures in thirty(-something) outfielders.

ALFONSO SORIANO TO THE CUBS

One of the players coveted by some on this board was Alfonso Soriano. Walt Jocketty didn't bite, and the Cubs swept him up, immediately adding more punch to a lineup that already had the power bats of Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez at the infield corners.

Soriano was the prize catch of the 2006-07 Hot Stove. He had just completed an impressive Age 30 season in the cavernous RFK Stadium, former home of the Nationals. He swatted 46 home runs a year after hitting 36 in the homer-friendly Ballpark at Arlington (or whatever the corporate name is these days). His line was impressive: .277/.351/.560/.911, a career-high OPS in his free agent year. And the Cubbies rewarded him handsomely, giving Soriano an eight-year deal worth $136 million, the largest in the franchise's long history. The Cubs' Official Site also gives us this perspective on the Soriano deal:

Soriano's package is the fifth largest given to a Major League player, behind Alex Rodriguez ($252 million for 10 years), Derek Jeter ($189 million for 10 years), Manny Ramirez ($160 million for eight years) and Todd Helton ($141.5 million for 11 years).

It was an addition that would ultimately prove enough to help make the Cubs the last club standing in an underwhelming NL Central the following year when Soriano repeated his career-high WAR of 5.5 for the Cubs in '07. That year, the backloaded deal paid Soriano $10 million for $22.7 million in value from the left fielder, and many a Cubs fan celebrated the signing while many a Cardinals fan bemoaned DeWitt for not opening DeWallet and making Soriano a Cardinal.

The next year, 2008, the Cubs were a juggernaut. They had some of the best pitching and hitting in the league and bulldozed their competition in the division while securing the NL's top record. Everything fell into place for Hendry's 25 and the season was magical...until they repeated their 2007 NLDS flameout and were swept into the history books, providing a sad chapter that commemorates their 100th consecutive year of losing. Soriano had a good year, OPSing .876, but his WAR fell to 3.3, giving the Cubbies $13.8 million in value for $14 million in salary in his Age 32 season.

We all know that Soriano's production fell off the proverbial cliff in the just-completed summer of 2009. Soriano hit .241/.303/.423/.726 over 522 PAs in 117 games and his UZR/150 went from 5.2 in '08 to -13.4 in '09 (for whatever the reason, e.g., UZR being slightly unreliable, Soriano being injured, Soriano aging, Soriano having a bad defensive season). His offense, coupled with his defense, resulted in Soriano's WAR plummeting to -0.8, giving the Cubs -$3.6 million in value for Soriano's$16 million 2009 salary. In three years with the Cubs, Soriano has given them $32.3 million in value, according to WAR, for a salary of $40 million. As noted above, however, Soriano is still under contract for five more years. Through 2014. At $19 million annually.

This is not to say that the 34-year-old Soranio, in the Poststeroids Era, will not OPS .900 next year and put up a WAR of 5.5 on the strength of a complete revival of his game, but it is also possible, perhaps even likely, that Soriano will struggle to OPS even .800 and against be a negative value for the Cubs. It is worth taking notice and seeing just how easy it is for yesterday's triumphant signing to become today's albatross contract.

CARLOS LEE TO THE ASTROS

The aptly nicknamed El Caballo couldn't ever field--and this is something that UZR and scouts alike will agree--so it is unlikely that the Astro front office ever had even the seed of a thought in its collective mind that he could be even serviceable as a full-time left fielder. (At least this is what I tell myself.) No, they wanted the .300-average, 30+ home run power hitter. So what if his last name doesn't begin with a "B," he was a killer of baseballs. Like Soriano, Lee had just completed an impressive display of offensive power in his Age 30 season. He whacked 37 homers between Milwaukee and Arlington while posting a slash line of .300/.355/.540/.895. It was a 2.6-WAR season for Lee and got him a $100 million, 6-year deal (with a "nominal weight clause") to patrol the Crawford Box-shorted pasture of left field in ~~Enron~~ Minute Maid.

"This is a historic commitment to winning," Astros general manager Tim Purpura said. [Author's Note: Purpura said this upon signing a .300-hitting, ~30 HR left fielder. Hmmm. Who could I see saying the same thing come Thanksgiving, upon inking another .300-hitting, ~30 HR left fielder to a 6-year, $100+ million contract...]

Again, the contract was backloaded (as contracts tend to be). Again, this made the contract look pretty good, in terms of value, in the early years.

How the Crawford Boxes affect his UZR is certainly up for debate, but he has been consistently below average during his three years in Houston, according to the metric. Thus, a downward trend in defense has not negatively impacted Lee's WAR, like it had Soriano.

Lee can hit and has done so consistently for the 'Stros, even if his power numbers were somewhat lower this season. His slugging percentage was .528 in '07, .569 in '08, and then .489 in '09. Lee has hit for average--.303, .314, and .300--in his three seasons. In fact, offensively, Lee has been about what one would expect him to be through his Age 33 season. In terms of value, he has delivered a 3.3-WAR '07, giving Houston $13.5 million in value for $11.5 million in salary. In '08, his WAR was again 3.3, that year providing a $15 million value for $12.5 million in salary. This year, his WAR fell to 2.4, good for a value of $10.6 million. His salary, though, climbed to $18.5 million, giving the club a value-to-salary ratio of -$7.9 million. For three years, Lee's net value by WAR has been -$3.4 million for Houston. Who thinks he will be worth the $19 million annual salary the Astros will pay him in each of 2010, 2011, and 2012? Me, neither. Maybe they could trade him? Not according to the ESPN article on the contract.

A source told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark the only significant non-monetary clause in the contract is that Lee will have a complete no-trade clause for the first four years of the deal and a limited no-trade for the final two years.

So, we have two power-hitting left fielders who were signed to long-term, $100 million (or more) contracts by divisonal foes in the not-so-distant Hot Stove of aught-six. As Cardinals fans, we can sit back and chuckle as we watch them "earn" their $19 million salaries over the next three or five years. And we should do as much, but we should also look in the mirror and ask ourselves what Matt Holliday is worth in both years and dollars, because, come 2012, our franchise could be weighted down by a $100-million albatross contract just as the Astros and Cubs are today.

Next Installment: "The Parameters of Signing Holliday"

Game 2 NLDS Running Diary Column

2009-10-12T17:56:00Z

Thought you all might be interested in this column published in the UC Irvine student newspaper today.

Behind Enemy Lines: My Trip to Dodger Stadium as a Cardinal Fan

By David Gao on Oct. 11, 2009

Even though I moved away from St. Louis when I was 14, my diehard fandom of the Cardinals has not diminished whatsoever. Whether it’s because we have been blessed with the greatest player in the game, Albert Pujols, or because they have been in the playoffs seven times in the decade, or maybe just because we have been known as the best fans in baseball, I proudly wear the Birds on the Bat around Southern Cal.

Going to high school in San Diego, this never really had many consequences. A few of my friends would scoff or act annoyed, but I always ran into plenty of fellow St. Louis fans at Padre games.

So when the Cardinals were matched up with the Dodgers of Los Angeles in the first round of this year’s National League Division Series (first round of the playoffs), I knew I had to go. I called up the only other Cardinal fan I knew at UCI, Luigi, bought tickets for Game 2, and got the OK from kind Professor Wasserstrom for missing his class. Here is a running diary of what transpired.

1:20: Armed with my Pujols jersey, Luigi and I depart for the land of the smog. As this is the first ever playoff game for both of us, spirits are high.

2:58: As we get settled into our sun faded, now light turquoise seats, LA flashes its movie star personality, as Slash of Guns N’ Roses and George Lopez make appearances.

3:10: You can’t beat today’s pitching matchup. Clayton Kershaw, a 21-year-old kid among men, and Adam Wainwright, who has the dirtiest curveball I have ever seen, will be standouts for their respective teams for years to come.

3:28: Matt Holliday seemingly lunges toward a ball and somehow knocks it out of the park. Luigi remarks that Holliday was the best acquisition ever. The five other Cardinal fans in our section, Luigi, and I are the only ones left standing and cheering. Immediately, the entire section starts booing us and demanding that we sit our behinds down … in slightly different language.

3:34: For no apparent reason, the left field pavilion seats in the outfield start booing voraciously. Upon further inspection, I realize the target of their jeers: A pair of lonely Cardinal fans are making their way up the stairs, two specks of red in a sea of blue.

4:15: Dodger fan next to me: “Wow, we still haven’t gotten anyone on base. This guy has got a no-hit-” “CRACK!” Home run Andre Ethier. The whole time the fan was coming to the no-hitter realization, I was wishing he would just stop talking. Everyone knows the most sure-fire way to break up a no-hitter is to talk about it. Although I suppose if you’re rooting for the team being no-hit, then talking about it would make perfect sense.

4:23: The upper deck of Dodger Stadium has one exit — at the top of the section. So, anytime you leave the section, anyone in rows above you get a great view. Cardinals fans leaving the section are booed and heckled, all the way up those long stairs. Luigi deems this “the walk of shame.”

4:55: Mark DeRosa and Colby Rasmus help the Cardinals take a 2-1 lead. Unfortunately, Rasmus gets greedy gunning for third and is thrown out by a perfect relay. This makes for the first out of the inning, and instead of him being on second with no out, there is now no one on with an out. Fiddlesticks.

5:42: The Dodgers load the bases with 2 outs in the 8th. The energy is really pumping through the stadium. Standing and towel waving is in full force. The count runs to 3-2, and this is what it’s all about.

5:43: Exhale. Matt Kemp grounds out, and Wainwright has successfully completed a gem of an outing.

6:04: Trevor Miller gets Ethier to pop out, and Ryan Franklin retires Manny on a fly out to center. Cardinals are up 2-1, with two outs!

6:05: Line drive out to left field … Holliday is going to be able to get to it! … and disaster strikes. Holliday loses the ball in the lights and drops the ball. James Loney is on at second, and instead of game over, it’s runner in scoring position.

6:11: Casey Blake works a walk, which is what I wanted. Ronnie Belliard, the next batter, has looked terrible all game.

6:13: Of course, Belliard gets a base hit to tie the game. Dodgers fans go crazy, literally. A guy behind us jumps down into our row and pushes me as if I had just insulted him on the playground.

6:15: Trying to stay calm, I reason that we can still go into extra innings. It comes down to pinch-hitter Mark Loretta, who has to be nearing 60, with the bases loaded.

6:16: At this point, my gut is just losing hope. I can feel the momentum swinging like a carnival pirate ship towards the Dodgers. My confidence in Franklin has all but evaporated. All I can do is keep hoping.

6:17: Loretta drives in the winning run, and Chavez Ravine spontaneously bursts into pandemonium while I feel like someone just punched me in the stomach. Several Dodger fans immediately scream taunts and jeers, while others take pictures of our dejected faces. The worst part now is the dreaded walk of shame.

6:18: Walking up the stairs stone-faced, I’ve been whipped by those stupid towels at least four times.

In the end, the Dodgers swept the Cardinals, who looked like a team ready for the World Series for most of the season. Baseball, more so than any other sport, is a complete crapshoot come playoff time. It all depends on who is on the hot streak, and who the baseball gods decide to smile down upon. No matter what though, I will never regret my foray behind enemy lines. The atmosphere of playoff baseball is something special — towel whipping, insult hurling, taunts and all.

http://www.newuniversity.org/2009/10/sports/behind-enemy-lines-my-trip-to-dodger-stadium-as-a-cardinal-fan/