Viva El Birdos: FanPosts

A Bad Argument for Michael Wacha Over Tyler Lyons

2013-05-19T22:00:01Z

I missed this column from Bernie Miklasz but it's frustrating to see such a disservice done to Tyler Lyons. It's an abuse of stats in the most mundane of ways and, given other articles he's written, something that feels disingenuous in it's obvious mistakes. To start Miklasz sites some of the least predictive statistics to make the case agaisnt Lyons:

But Lyons had a 4.47 ERA in Triple A, for goodness sake. In his last four starts he's allowed 14 earned runs in 21.2 innings. He's been struck for a .306 batting average this season. I'm not seeing Joe Magrane II here.

Lyons had a .372 BABIP against. Lyons has a nearly 48% groundball rate which is better than the PCL average. His line drive rate is in line with averages for the league as well. So there's compelling evidence that Lyons is getting unlucky. It's also important to remember that ERA can be useful as a descriptive tool in terms of what happened but it's limited in it's usefulness as a predictive tool because it incorporates all kinds of luck components and team defense aspects that the pitcher has no control over.

The better tool to use is a fielding independent pitching metric like FIP. Tyler Lyons is sitting at a 3.20 FIP right now which is, again, better than the PCL average. This is largely because Lyons continues to display excellent control with a K:BB rate nearly at 4:1. This is in line with his performance at lower levels as well.

Meanwhile, Michael Wacha is clearly the sexy pick of late. After being drafted and pitching as a reliever, he was dominant. He struck out 40 in 21 innings, was a dominant groundball pitcher and only walked 4. That's undeniably impressive.

It's also been something he hasn't replicated as a starter this season. Wacha's groundball rate has been 32%, his strikeout rate is no better than Lyons and his walk rate is higher than Lyons. Two statistics that are better predictors of future ERA than present ERA are SIERA and FIP. In both instances, those statistics favor Lyons by a wide margin.

There's a compelling argument for Michael Wacha but it revolves around a less objective and quantifiable aspect of scouting. Wacha's ceiling is considered to be higher than Lyons. Wacha has a bright future but the future is not now.

Wacha is clearly the best pitcher down there, clearly the one with the brightest future, clearly the one that figures to be in the STL rotation for a long time. But this is the second time the Cardinals have bypassed him in favor of another option to start a game or games.

That's simply not an argument backed up by the stats right now. Michael Wacha has seen the best results during his starts but with a miniscule BABIP, there's been a huge portion of that success which is difficult to attribute to Wacha directly. There is not a strong objective case that Michael Wacha projects better at this point in the season than Tyler Lyons.

And that's part of what makes the service time scaremongering that Miklasz engages in towards the end of his article so perplexing. Even the briefest look beyond the surface level statistics will indicate that Tyler Lyons has had the better process this season even if he hasn't seen the same results.

Maybe Miklasz is right. Maybe the Cardinals don't want to start Michael Wacha's service time yet. If that's true, it certainly isn't because Wacha has outpitched Tyler Lyons this season because there's no compelling basis for that claim. Good on Mozeliak for pushing back too:

It’s managing our decisions for what’s best for the club and what’s best for the individuals in their own silo of development.

There's no reason to pillory the club for making what is a smart decision both for today and tomorrow. And there's no reason to act like Tyler Lyons hasn't earned this. He has and good for him that he's getting this opportunity.

But Lyons had a 4.47 ERA in Triple A, for goodness sake. In his last four starts he's allowed 14 earned runs in 21.2 innings. He's been struck for a .306 batting average this season. I'm not seeing Joe Magrane II here.

Wacha is clearly the best pitcher down there, clearly the one with the brightest future, clearly the one that figures to be in the STL rotation for a long time. But this is the second time the Cardinals have bypassed him in favor of another option to start a game or games.

It’s managing our decisions for what’s best for the club and what’s best for the individuals in their own silo of development.

A Quarter Thing

2013-05-18T00:20:01Z

The St. Louis Cardinals are 25% done with their regular season. That’s sad in the same way that eating 25% of a cookie is sad. It means you don’t have the whole cookie anymore but still you’ve got enough cookie left to enjoy and the memory of the cookie you just ate is right on your tongue and anyway, what is with you and your cookie infatuation?

Every season has multiple stories so it stands to reason, sits near logic and just generally makes sense that this quarter of a season has had multiple stories. And, as is often the case for a team in first place, most of these stories are, to borrow a phrase from my 7-year-old nephew, “Neato” (we’re thinking Washington University may be in his future).

Some of these stories are not neato and it behooves us to look in to them as well because we are exceptional people who could more than likely solve all the teams’ problems from the comfort of our living rooms whilst drinking rum. We’re smart like that.

Because nobody knew better than the genius who decided that Lee Van Cleef should star in westerns with Clint Eastwood, I will now delve into the Good, the Bad and the Ugly of the Cardinal’s quarter season.

The Good

Good thing number one and the best thing by far in this young season: the starting rotation. Our rotation is a gorgeous woman in a giving mood, the sun shining on a beautiful day, a cold beer and a warm steak… it’s like nothing bad has happened and nothing could ever hurt us and oh my god I just want to wrap myself up in the rotation and sleep here and no harm will come to me because God loves us all.

Now, the ugly little imp who sits at my desk and spikes my coffee with Klonopin is currently muttering words like “regression” and “unsustainable” and I get where he’s coming from but you know what? I refuse to be the jerk at the blackjack table who professes that his luck will soon run out. Maybe our rotation’s success is sustainable, maybe miracles happen and maybe just maybe that stupid imp will be wrong for once in his mathematically reliant life.

Good thing number two is Matt Carpenter. Hey you guys, the Cardinals converted a third baseman to play second and not only is he doing so adequately, he’s providing the best offense we’ve seen at the position since the mid-nineties. If Carpenter were to continue hitting like he’s hitting and fielding like he’s fielding, he will provide us with more VORP in a year than any Cardinal second baseman since Tommy Motherhumping Herr. That is downright amazing. Yet because good thing number one is so awesome, good thing number two barely gets mentioned. Think about that for a second: one of the most devout and attentive fan bases in baseball has a player kicking butt while playing out of position and he’s not even the number one story of the first quarter season because our starting rotation makes all rotations that can possibly rotate, vibrate or oscillate seem static and flaccid by comparison.

Neat. O.

Good thing number three is simply that most of those paid to play and expected to perform are doing just that. Molina, Holliday, Jay, Beltran and Craig are all coming through, with varying degrees of success (Craig and Molina are having power shortages, Jay slumped through April, etc.). I guess what I’m saying here is, the lineup’s alright.

Good thing number last is that Pete Kozma is a shortstop and Ryan Jackson seems to be getting better every day, so shortstop, once thought to be the feces-infested Carnival Cruise Line of Cardinal issues is actually just a position that folks play at replacement level for cheap. Nothing wrong with that.

The Bad

The bullpen is only bad in my humble quarter season take because it seems to be in the process of being fixed and I live my observational baseball life by one simple rule: never trust a bullpen in transition. Any bullpen in transition is just waiting for new pitchers to be exposed and when that happens games get lost late. I guess what I’m saying is Edward Mujica is pitching awesome until he doesn’t, Maness will get lots of outs with few pitches until they hit him, Rosenthal’s fastball will keep streaking by hitters until they catch up to it, Martinez… actually he seems pretty damn diabolical doesn’t he? I’m not comfortable with the ‘pen yet, and because we sent down two major pieces of it I am going to take the risk and say that the bullpen, though not bad in the league average comparison sense of the word, was definitely a bad part of the first quarter season and more than likely cost us several wins.

Bad thing number two is David Freese: Get your poop in a group, Wildwood.

So all in all, there’s a lot of good and not much bad. Hopefully the Cardinals can continue on this pace which may or may not actually be torrid.

Oh, I almost forgot:The Ugly

The Good

Neat. O.

The Bad

Bad thing number two is David Freese: Get your poop in a group, Wildwood.

So all in all, there’s a lot of good and not much bad. Hopefully the Cardinals can continue on this pace which may or may not actually be torrid.

Oh, I almost forgot:The Ugly

MLB 2013 Draft Target: Tim Anderson, JUCO Shortstop

2013-05-13T15:30:49Z

We have 2 picks in the first round (19 & 28) of the upcoming MLB draft and I'm a big believer in taking Tim Anderson with the 28th pick and I'm hoping to get more of you on that bandwagon.

As many of you know, our shortstop depth in the minors is our most lacking area. And while I like Koz and what he has done thus far, I'm not sure if he is the future. There are a couple intriguing candidates who could fill the void (R.Jackson, G.Garcia, Mejia) if he falters, but I'd love to add another college guy to that list. Why a college guy? Because they would be closer to either making it to the majors, or at least creating better competition for whoever is filling the role. You also know that we are lacking in guys with leadoff material and serious basestealing threats. Why not fill all those needs with 1 guy?

For those of you not knowing about Tim Anderson, here are some bullet points to help sell you on the idea:

- Has Billy Hamilton like speed and knows how to use it at the dish and on the basepaths. First, he not only has great hitting promise (projects well and hitting over .500 currently) but knows how to take advantage of his speed to get on base when hitting. Plus, he is a terror on the bases given how he was 30 for 30 in attempts in 2012 and almost averages a steal a game in 2013 (though did get caught 3 times)

- A bit of pop in his bat. Hit 5 HRs in 2012 and currently has 9 in 2013. That is as many as Aaron Judge currently and twice as many as Austin Wilson (though he has been hurt half the year)

- Extremely athletic. He played baseball all his life, but when he got to high school, he initially focused on basketball. He had knee trouble, so he decided to try baseball again his junior year. After graduating, he got many basketball scholorships, but baseball became his passion. He uses that athletic ability in getting a great range and his quickness helps too. Arm isn't as premium as everything else, but its mainly described as serviceable which could be said of many major league shortstops

- Many mock drafts have him going in the late 20s or early 30s. This includes Baseball America which has him as the #34 overall draft prospect, and the #1 college shortstop. Taking him at 28 could maybe save a little bit of bonus money that could be spent later on

Hope I convinced a few of you to get on the Tim Anderson bandwagon. How could you not want a guy who can compare to Jimmy Rollins but with more speed, and have a Billy Hamilton like speed demon playing shortstop? :) I'm already dreaming of the lineup possibilities.

We have 2 picks in the first round (19 & 28) of the upcoming MLB draft and I'm a big believer in taking Tim Anderson with the 28th pick and I'm hoping to get more of you on that bandwagon.

For those of you not knowing about Tim Anderson, here are some bullet points to help sell you on the idea:

- A bit of pop in his bat. Hit 5 HRs in 2012 and currently has 9 in 2013. That is as many as Aaron Judge currently and twice as many as Austin Wilson (though he has been hurt half the year)

Going to the Drillers/Cardinals game on Thursday

2013-05-13T05:40:17Z

$2 dollar draft craft beers and Drillers Jersey give away night so I'll be at OneOK Field in Tulsa Thursday to watch the game.

Anything particular I should watch for or any notes anyone wants me to take about certain players? Tickets are dirt cheap so I'll be right sitting behind the Cardinals dugout, along the third base line.

I'm mainly going to see Tommy Pham and Jake Lemmerman. Oh and Rafael Ortega but of course he's a Rockies prospect.

I don't know who is pitching yet of course.

$2 dollar draft craft beers and Drillers Jersey give away night so I'll be at OneOK Field in Tulsa Thursday to watch the game.

I'm mainly going to see Tommy Pham and Jake Lemmerman. Oh and Rafael Ortega but of course he's a Rockies prospect.

I don't know who is pitching yet of course.

Game 34- Miller in the hizzy vs. Jon Garland and the boys

2013-05-11T00:18:28Z

(0.7 WAR, 2.94 FIP) (0.4 WAR, 4.39 FIP)

Shelby Miller day everyone!!!

Garland's been pretty average so far this season with a 100 FIP- that's only been hurt by the 13.8% HR/FB. While Shelby has been damn impressive with a 2.94 FIP and has shown the ability to get awesome results despite only throwing two pitches.

Apparently you need a word minimum to make this a fanpost and that's totally understandable, but you can't really promote a fanshot to the frontpage according to our robot overlord.

(0.7 WAR, 2.94 FIP) (0.4 WAR, 4.39 FIP)

Shelby Miller day everyone!!!

Apparently you need a word minimum to make this a fanpost and that's totally understandable, but you can't really promote a fanshot to the frontpage according to our robot overlord.

Minorleagueball's Annual Community Mock Draft

2013-05-09T21:30:55Z

Hey all VEB'ers. I'm Kyle (Kicker31 here) and I'm running the St. Louis Cardinals on Minorleagueball.com (the minor league SB nation site).

You can find the first discussion here:

STL Cardinals MOD #1: The Precursor

I've been a Cardinals fan for life, and a VEB member since December 11th, 2012. I'm asking you for your help because this is a very knowledgeable group of people. You don't have to be fully invested into Minor League players to get involved, either. Although it'd help a lot if you read up some on the draft, a lot of the idea is based on focusing on the tendencies and talents of the Cardinals and drafting to fit the mold of what they might do.

Feel free to swing by and drop a line! The more minds on the posts, the better chance we have of developing the best big board for the draft, and landing the best players we can. Here's to the (hypothetical) future of the Cardinals!

Thanks,

Kyle

Kicker31

Hey all VEB'ers. I'm Kyle (Kicker31 here) and I'm running the St. Louis Cardinals on Minorleagueball.com (the minor league SB nation site).

You can find the first discussion here:

STL Cardinals MOD #1: The Precursor

Thanks,

Kyle

Kicker31

Questions Regarding the Future of the Redbirds

2013-05-07T14:20:49Z

First off, would like to introduce myself to VEB. As much of a fan I am of the Cards, I haven't been on this site too often and have a few questions regarding the future of the Red birds and what you guys think the roster will look like in a year or 2.

First off, regarding Adams, Taveras and Wong, I'm curious where you guys think they will be next year. It seemed that while Jay was struggling at CF, that Taveras would eventually come in and replace him, but the past few games he has really gotten his swing back and his glove would definitely be missed had he not been in our starting lineup. I expect to see both Jay and Taveras in the outfield with Oscar at one corner and Holliday at the other. However, there are two things that are holding me back from this image. One being that without Beltran the past month, our offense would've really been hurting given Freese and Craig were slumping along with Jay. We had no lead off man getting on base with the exception of Carpenter at times. I'm starting to think Beltran has enough left to bring him back for another year or 2 given how well he has produced. But there simply isn't enough room in the lineup for him, Adams, and Taveras.

Ideally Oscar would replace his bat but you have to think there might be a decent learning curve from triple A to the majors. Also, where does that leave us with Matt Adams. Then it becomes an issue of Jay vs Craig if Mo and Matheny decide that Oscar is definitely going to be called up. I've heard many people say, just trade Adams with a young arm (which I'll get to) and get a SS. Problem I have with this is Adams looks like he can be a stud and a 1b/DH for the next 10 years. Since we obviously don't have a DH, Craig would have to bounce out to the outfield, and Taveras to CF with Jay to the bench.

Or, the last option is Craig to 3B with Freese slumping the way he has, and Freese to the bench. Clearly you can see i'm just looking for some kind of solution as Carpenter's bat is proving to be very valuable and Wong is still waiting for his chance in the minors to fill in 2b. It seems every position but SS is stacked with several options on this team or a stud all star that isn't moving barring some unforeseen injury.

Lastly, our pitching is beyond deep with Martinez, Wacha, Rosenthal, and Kelly all trying to take Westbrook's spot next season (hopefully the team doesn't pick up his option and I can't see how they will). I personally would love to have Wacha and Martinez come up and Rosenthal stay in the pen, but we simply don't have enough room. I would again, hate to trade either one, but if I had to trade one i would say Martinez. Problem is, they are too good to keep in the bullpen and too much upside to trade. But should any of our other starters get hurt, we are instantly looking for a replacement and wish we still had one of our youngsters available to plug in, so do you keep them all? Not to mention Manness and his ridiculous control.

Basically as you can see, and all already know, we have so much depth that im extremely curious with how you guys expect to see our roster shape up in the next few years. I have the utmost respect for Beltran and would have no issue with him coming back for a year or 2 if he produced well all year, but do you stunt the growth of some of your younger players while paying him 8-10 mil/yr?

I clearly don't have the answer, and again, would love to hear your guy's thoughts on the future of the redbirds.

Thanks for reading.

I clearly don't have the answer, and again, would love to hear your guy's thoughts on the future of the redbirds.

Thanks for reading.

CISTULLI INTERVIEWING MIKE SHANNON

2013-05-06T22:56:49Z

I'm not making this up--Carson Cistulli spends 10 minutes with Mike Shannon, and sparks fly. Cistulli obviously and predictably talks way too much, but this is required listening for baseball fans, hipsters, and of course Shannon lovers everywhere. ALL CAPS ARE WARRANTED HERE PEOPLE.

"You were described as a lovable uncle by at least 10 of our listeners."--Carson Cistulli

"Oh, that's nice!"--Mike Shannon

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-mike-shannon-radio-voice-of-the-cardinals/

"You were described as a lovable uncle by at least 10 of our listeners."--Carson Cistulli

"Oh, that's nice!"--Mike Shannon

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-mike-shannon-radio-voice-of-the-cardinals/

2014 Piggyback rotation

2013-05-04T05:14:09Z

The Cardinals could be in a position in 2014 to maximize the young pitching depth they have accumulated by employing the piggyback rotation that they have experimented with in the minor leagues. What might this look like?

Roster makeup

Pitchers:

8 Starters

Wainwright/ Wacha

Lynn/ Maness

Garcia/ Martinez

Miller/ Rosenthal

5 Relievers

Kelly/Rzep – Swingman/Longman/Setup

Boggs/Salas – Swingman/Longman/Setup

Mujica - Setup

Motte – Closer

Choate – LOOGY

Let’s assume the average team needs to account for 1460 total Innings in a season.

Under the current 5 man rotation:

The average starter goes six innings, 32 times a year. That is 192 Innings per starter and 960 total innings. That leaves 500 innings for the bullpen.

If we were to convert to an 8-man tandem rotation:

Your A starters go four to five innings and your B starters go three to four innings, 40 times a year. That is 160 – 200 Innings per starter and 1120 – 1440 total innings. That leaves 20 – 340 innings for the bullpen.

Here are some of the pros and cons of each system off of the top of my head.

Pros.

Better preparation. More pitchers would know exactly which days they will be pitching. Can better plan exactly how each hitter will be pitched to based on two different arsenals.

Less stress on individual pitchers arms. No pitcher could accumulate more than 200 innings in a season, which would hopefully reduce the risks of injury and fatigue.

A reduced workload in the regular season would mean that pitchers would be fresher in the playoffs.

A better suited rotation for playoff baseball. The fifth starter is usually sent to the pen or left off of the roster.

Opposing hitters would only see the same pitcher one or two times in a game.

More opportunities would arise to use a pinch hitter in place of a pitcher.

Cons.

It is risky to try a brand new approach. Injuries could really cause some havoc and force you to rely on pitchers you were not expecting to.

Diminished situational flexibility. Pitchers will have much more defined roles and there won’t be as many backup options in the pen to turn to should someone falter.

Pitchers will have to come out of games when they are pitching well, to keep everyone on schedule.

Individual stats will suffer. Starters would not be eligible for wins or quality starts. The B starter will most likely get credit for the A starter’s work.

Not a viable option every season. Some teams can barely find 5 viable starters.

One less bench player. This may not be much of a problem considering the positional flexibility of the positional players.

Hitters:

8 Position players

C – Molina / 1B

1B – Craig / LF, RF

2B – Wong /

3B – Freese / 1B

SS – Kozma / 2B

LF – Holliday / RF

CF – Jay / LF, RF

RF – Taveras / LF, CF

4 Bench players

Cruz / C

Descalso / 3B, 2B, SS

Carpenter / 2B, 3B, 1B, LF, RF

Adams / 1B

What are some other pros and cons you can think of if we were to employ an 8-man piggyback rotation?

Roster makeup

Pitchers:

8 Starters

Wainwright/ Wacha

Lynn/ Maness

Garcia/ Martinez

Miller/ Rosenthal

5 Relievers

Kelly/Rzep – Swingman/Longman/Setup

Boggs/Salas – Swingman/Longman/Setup

Mujica - Setup

Motte – Closer

Choate – LOOGY

Let’s assume the average team needs to account for 1460 total Innings in a season.

Under the current 5 man rotation:

The average starter goes six innings, 32 times a year. That is 192 Innings per starter and 960 total innings. That leaves 500 innings for the bullpen.

If we were to convert to an 8-man tandem rotation:

Here are some of the pros and cons of each system off of the top of my head.

Pros.

Better preparation. More pitchers would know exactly which days they will be pitching. Can better plan exactly how each hitter will be pitched to based on two different arsenals.

Less stress on individual pitchers arms. No pitcher could accumulate more than 200 innings in a season, which would hopefully reduce the risks of injury and fatigue.

A reduced workload in the regular season would mean that pitchers would be fresher in the playoffs.

A better suited rotation for playoff baseball. The fifth starter is usually sent to the pen or left off of the roster.

Opposing hitters would only see the same pitcher one or two times in a game.

More opportunities would arise to use a pinch hitter in place of a pitcher.

Cons.

It is risky to try a brand new approach. Injuries could really cause some havoc and force you to rely on pitchers you were not expecting to.

Diminished situational flexibility. Pitchers will have much more defined roles and there won’t be as many backup options in the pen to turn to should someone falter.

Pitchers will have to come out of games when they are pitching well, to keep everyone on schedule.

Individual stats will suffer. Starters would not be eligible for wins or quality starts. The B starter will most likely get credit for the A starter’s work.

Not a viable option every season. Some teams can barely find 5 viable starters.

One less bench player. This may not be much of a problem considering the positional flexibility of the positional players.

Hitters:

8 Position players

C – Molina / 1B

1B – Craig / LF, RF

2B – Wong /

3B – Freese / 1B

SS – Kozma / 2B

LF – Holliday / RF

CF – Jay / LF, RF

RF – Taveras / LF, CF

4 Bench players

Cruz / C

Descalso / 3B, 2B, SS

Carpenter / 2B, 3B, 1B, LF, RF

Adams / 1B

What are some other pros and cons you can think of if we were to employ an 8-man piggyback rotation?

Poll

Would you consider employing a piggyback rotation in 2014?

Yes

12 votes

No

33 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

How to Improve at Shortstop Without Selling the Farm

2013-05-04T01:50:58Z

Well, we've made it through the first month of the season, and so far, the shortstopocalypse has not yet struck in St. Louis. It remains true that the Cardinals could stand to upgrade significantly at shortstop. However, this upgrade is not particularly urgent, both in comparison to the other issues this team faces in the bullpen and on offense, especially at leadoff.

A trade to improve at shortstop certainly remains a possibility, but any potential deal for a whiz bang new toy has to be evaluated in terms of how much we would lose. This team has potentially championship winning assets in its young pitching and hitting; is giving away 3 or so players out of Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Oscar Taveras, Matt Adams, and Kolten Wong really worth it?

Maybe it will be. But it can't hurt to try some other options to strengthen the shortstop position organization wide first. Here are a few steps:

Let Pete Kozma Play

Draft More Pitching (Yes, Pitching)

Sign an International Free Agent Shortstop

Explore a Trade for Dee Gordon

1) Let Pete Kozma play out the year: Pete Kozma has not been a liability so far; he is still roughly league average thus far (better than Asdrubal Cabrera by a fair clip I might add). All those who would contend that one month is a small sample size--well, let's give him a full sample then. At the very least, Pete Kozma is playing us into better bargaining position if a trade situation ever came up; because of him we are not desperate. Further, he potentially gives us the opportunity to reinforce the high farm system or take on some other project options that may pan out and be cheaper then trading for a premier player. Here is a fair assessment of Kozma's performance so far...I agree, I'd give him a B.

2) Draft More Pitching: No the Cardinals shouldn't draft a shortstop. This draft class is particularly weak at shortstop this year, with below average first round talent and sparse pickings. It is deep in catchers and left handed pitching, and its not hard to find quality pitching anyway. The Cardinals should A) draft the best player possible and B) continue to focus on fostering the excellent depth they have in young pitching. If the time does come for a trade, any team is going to want one main thing from the Cardinals: pitching pitching pitching. If the Cardinals could score another Wacha or two in the first few rounds of the draft they will be that more able to sustain any trade that requires pitching prospects.

3) Sign an International Free Agent Shortstop: This is the better place to target a position of need, for two reasons. The Cardinals will be free to go out and bid on whoever they wish, without worrying about draft pick status and getting the best talent for your pick. Secondly, two of the top three international prospects this year are shortstops, at least according to this report over at SB Nation Minor League Baseball. Here are two scouting reports from their report, on Obipso Aybar-Lara and Gleyber Torres:

A) Obispo Aybar-Lara, SS, 6'0" 165lbs, R/R, Dominican Republic

Trainer: Jaime Ozuna

Age: 16.4 years

A potential five-tool shortstop with plus-plus speed (6.53) and above average raw power, Aybar-Lara is one of the premier athletes available for July 2nd signing period. Defensively he has the excellent range, actions, and plus arm-strength that has one former scouting director rating his defense as a future 6 or 7. He has a wiry and lean frame with lots of room to add muscle, and projects to hit for at least average power down the road. Aybar-Lara has a contact oriented approach at the plate and very good batspeed. He's an an exciting player with the potential to be a power-speed combo at the top of a lineup. Though he can play a little wild at times, Aybar-Lara brings a serious no-nonsense approach to every game. Aybar-Lara is currently being investigated by the MLB for allegedly misrepresenting his age. His trainers are representing him as 16 years-old, but some reports back in the Dominican Republic have him listed as old as 19. If the reports are true, he probably belongs in the late teens on this list, because even at 19 years old his tools are good enough to get a high six-figure bonus.

Comparison: Elvis Andrus

B) Gleyber Torres, SS, 5'11" 184lbs, R/R, Venezuela

Trainer: Ciro Barrios

Age: 16.6 years

Considered the top Venezuelan prospect in the 2013 class, Torres is a product of the Ciro Barrios camp that also trained last year's top prospect Franklin Barreto (Blue Jays). While Torres does not have Barretto's level of international success and experience on his resume, some scouts consider him to be the better overall prospect, due to his power and greater likelihood of remaining at short. Torres is a polished player with a high floor, and though he doesn't offer much projection, what he is right now is already pretty good. A smooth defender with above average arm strength and innate natural instincts on the infield, Torres is exactly what you would want in a shortstop prospect. Offensively, he has a clean swing and shows patience and a good approach at the plate. Scouts see Torres as being the type of hitter who could hit for average while adding 15-20 homeruns a year. Torres only below-average tool is his lack of pure footspeed (7.02), but he has much better range than one would expect from a player with that kind of 60-time. The Cubs are said to be the team most aggressive on him, offering a bonus as high as 2mm.

Comparison: John Valentin

Signing either of these players would have an immediate positive impact on our organizational depth at shortstop. I don't know much more than what these reports say, but I would tend toward Aybar-Lara, who may be late teens, in which case he wouldn't be as far off from being able to play. Additionally, I'm not sure what the status of Aledmys Diaz is, but earlier this year he was also considered a possible option out of Cuba.

4) Explore a Trade for Dee Gordon: Yes, I am aware of his performance last season. I'm aware of his defensive struggles, and his demotion to AAA. That's the point. Dee Gordon is a player with multiple elite level tools whose value has sunk as low as it possibly could. If there were ever a time that he could be obtained for low cost, that time is now. Depending on what the situation is for the Dodgers around the trade deadline, the Cardinals should at least put out feelers to see how cheaply they could get him--depending on the recoveries of some of the Dodgers starters, they could be looking for pitching help, and they're known to need 3B/Utility Infield improvements. From what conversations I've had with Dodgers fans, Joe Kelly could maybe draw some interest. This would be a low cost but risk/reward move--he may never live up to his potential, but IF HE DOES he is an impact leadoff hitter, a Jose Reyes lite. In regards to his defense: he has all the physical tools, a great arm...things just haven't panned out yet. Maybe Ozzie Smith could change that. If acquired, he should be left in AAA for the rest of the year and allowed to compete in 2014--at that point, we'll see if his disastrous 2012 was the result of an over-accelerated development, or an overrated potential. He wouldn't be the first player to find his true potential within the Cardinal Way.

Are any of these options slam dunks? Of course not--that's why they would be cheap. The great thing is, if they fail, the Cardinals are in no worse of a trading position to make the impact trades everyone likes to talk about. BUT: if they succeed (especially the Dee Gordon fantasy) the Cardinals solve their shortstop problem while keeping all those players we're loathe to part with. That may be worth a shot.

Maybe it will be. But it can't hurt to try some other options to strengthen the shortstop position organization wide first. Here are a few steps:

Let Pete Kozma Play

Draft More Pitching (Yes, Pitching)

Sign an International Free Agent Shortstop

Explore a Trade for Dee Gordon

A) Obispo Aybar-Lara, SS, 6'0" 165lbs, R/R, Dominican Republic

Trainer: Jaime Ozuna

Age: 16.4 years

A potential five-tool shortstop with plus-plus speed (6.53) and above average raw power, Aybar-Lara is one of the premier athletes available for July 2nd signing period. Defensively he has the excellent range, actions, and plus arm-strength that has one former scouting director rating his defense as a future 6 or 7. He has a wiry and lean frame with lots of room to add muscle, and projects to hit for at least average power down the road. Aybar-Lara has a contact oriented approach at the plate and very good batspeed. He's an an exciting player with the potential to be a power-speed combo at the top of a lineup. Though he can play a little wild at times, Aybar-Lara brings a serious no-nonsense approach to every game. Aybar-Lara is currently being investigated by the MLB for allegedly misrepresenting his age. His trainers are representing him as 16 years-old, but some reports back in the Dominican Republic have him listed as old as 19. If the reports are true, he probably belongs in the late teens on this list, because even at 19 years old his tools are good enough to get a high six-figure bonus.

Comparison: Elvis Andrus

B) Gleyber Torres, SS, 5'11" 184lbs, R/R, Venezuela

Trainer: Ciro Barrios

Age: 16.6 years

Considered the top Venezuelan prospect in the 2013 class, Torres is a product of the Ciro Barrios camp that also trained last year's top prospect Franklin Barreto (Blue Jays). While Torres does not have Barretto's level of international success and experience on his resume, some scouts consider him to be the better overall prospect, due to his power and greater likelihood of remaining at short. Torres is a polished player with a high floor, and though he doesn't offer much projection, what he is right now is already pretty good. A smooth defender with above average arm strength and innate natural instincts on the infield, Torres is exactly what you would want in a shortstop prospect. Offensively, he has a clean swing and shows patience and a good approach at the plate. Scouts see Torres as being the type of hitter who could hit for average while adding 15-20 homeruns a year. Torres only below-average tool is his lack of pure footspeed (7.02), but he has much better range than one would expect from a player with that kind of 60-time. The Cubs are said to be the team most aggressive on him, offering a bonus as high as 2mm.

Comparison: John Valentin

Poll

Would Dee Gordon be worth a shot?

I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.

15 votes

Only for a C grade prospect

38 votes

For a fringe piece on the Cardinals, worth it

40 votes

If we get a reliever too, I'd make a sacrifice

5 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Blowing Hard About Jaime

2013-05-02T14:32:12Z

During yesterday's telecast, I was disappointed to hear Dan's reaction to the decision of Jaime and the club to limit Jaime's interaction with the media. First of all, I don't think an athlete has any obligation to talk to the media. Driving me to this conclusion is the overwhelming evidence I have compiled that athletes don't have anything revealing or enlightening to say.

Scenario 1 - Jaime engages with media

Reporter: What made you so successful tonight, Jaime?

Jaime: Just hit my spots, changed speeds - defense played great behind me. Can't say enough about the defense tonight.

Scenario 2 - Jaime does not engage with the media

Reporter writes additional paragraph, either using quote from another player or (gasp!) his or her own thoughts on Jaime's performance.

Is there any appreciable difference between these two scenarios? Every now and again, a player comes along that is brimming with interesting or controversial things to say and it makes for good print or TV. These players usually are not hard to get quotes from. So if you've got a player that is unenthusiastic, contributes zero to your story, and appears to believe that staying away from the media will help him stay focused on the field, why do you want him to talk? Why would anyone who is a fan of the team want a player experiencing success to change something they believe is contributing to that success? As an announcer for the team, McLaughlin is not necessarily required to be a fan, but isn't he doing the club a disservice with this uneccessay shit-stirring?

As VEBers, I suppose we might be a self selected group, but is there an appettite among any of you for quotes from Cardinal players? (Brendan Ryan is NOT walking through that door!)

Zep's bad attitude?

2013-05-01T06:45:58Z

I read in Bernie's Bytes today that its not just his bad pitching but his bad attitude that has seen him sent down.

Bernie in a poor piece of journalism neglects to mention what constitutes his bad attitude.

Can anybody expand on this claim, what is so bad about Rzepcynski's attitude?

Words to fill the minimum required for post. Words to fill the minimum required for post. Words to fill the minimum required for post. Words to fill the minimum required for post. Words to fill the minimum required for post.

I read in Bernie's Bytes today that its not just his bad pitching but his bad attitude that has seen him sent down.

Bernie in a poor piece of journalism neglects to mention what constitutes his bad attitude.

Can anybody expand on this claim, what is so bad about Rzepcynski's attitude?

2013 Blogger Day at Busch Stadium

2013-04-29T19:23:51Z

So, yesterday somehow I found myself at the 2013 Cardinals Blogger event. I was invited to write for one of the UCB blogs, http://www.85percentsports.com. I've been writing a few articles on both baseball and football for them, and I invite you to check it out. One of my favorite things we do there is a roundtable discussion with the writers.

Anyway, on to talking about the event. I got to bring a guest, so I invited fellow VEB'er Tackle Box to go since I hadn't seen him for a few years and I knew he'd be super excited about it. We arrived at Busch Stadium well in advance of the earliest time we could get in to the event (11:15am) and saw that we were not the first ones there. Many people had lined up for the Beltran bobblehead giveaway already, and probably for the First Pitch Tickets. After checking out the many statues of Cardinal great from Ozzie Smith to Rogers Hornsby, etc. we went to the Cardinals Administrative entrance and waited to head up the elevator to one of the conference centers.

We were treated to soda, water, or coffee while we waited. Eventually, right around noon Bill DeWitt III and John Mozeliak were in the room! This was probably the coolest part of the day, as the other bloggers had some great questions and Mozeliak had some interesting answers. Here are some highlights:

Farm system success, Jermaine Curtis mentioned as someone who worked really hard and got promoted
Dewitt talked about Ball Park Village and the upcoming Cardinals Hall of Fame (which will include Cooperstown players as well as "really good" Cardinals). They are buying a lot of memorabilia as well as going to display items they already have. This is all supposed to be done by Opening Day 2014. Over a hundred events are scheduled to be at Ballpark Village.
Success of Dynamic Pricing campaign
Ongoing efforts to improve wifi access and cell reception in the stadium
The general consensus is that the Dewitt family does not like the DH, and both Bill Dewitt III and John Mozeliak feel that the DH being in the NL is far from inevitable. None of the owners or the commissioner are currently talking about bringing the DH to the NL, and they seemed to indicate that it is more of a media buzz thing, rather than being something that is gaining momentum. Dewitt said "zero discussion in the owner's meetings". Mozeliak said in the event that DH would be a part of the NL, a Matt Adams type of player would be the DH. As someone who is also not a fan of the DH in the NL, it made me happy to find out that the Dewitts are not fans of it either, and that they don't see it as an inevitability as some people do.
There was a question about Field Fx analytics, and Mozeliak said that these are not accurate enough yet to be a replacement for scouting, but that they are looked at to some extent. He also mentioned that the Pirates use them a lot, and that you might see fielding shifts by them mid-count.
Mozeliak spoke of one of the successes of the farm system being valuing players that are not being valued by the market. Gave Descalso and Matt Adams as examples of this type of player.
Broke down valuing offense in players as players who hit the ball "hard and often", and beyond that, that they like gap hitters.
Compared Taveras to a mix between Albert Pujols and JD Drew, and said that the Vlad Guerrero comparison was not the best since Taveras has more plate discipline.
Mozeliak said that he asked questions of Bing Devine for GM pointers
Mozeliak said unfortunately there are no great options for a shortstop in this year's draft
also commented on how Matheny takes a great interest in the Cardinals' minor league system
used the phrase "having said that" many times
came off as being an open-minded and intelligent guy, was pretty interesting to hear him divulge all this info but not going too in depth about anything
commented on the greater velocity in pitchers around this time being more of an improvement in technology in measuring the speed as the ball leaves the pitcher's hand than there being a ton more high velocity pitchers in the league
someone asked at the end if they could use Mozeliak's office to fire Wigginton, but John just said that since Wigginton is just meant to be a pinch hitter that he has value in preventing the ballclub from starting the clock on players that would end up not getting enough playing time being a PH

At this point Mozeliak left and Dewitt took over, talking a little more about Ballpark Village and the new merchandise available. Some of the items included neon hats, Cardinals golf club covers, pet gear, some cool Stan Musial commemorative t-shirts, and a number of other things I forgot to go over and look at... this because they ended up giving us all Stan Musial pins that are unavailable to the public! I put the one I got on my hat. We were also given a short speech by the Cardinals head chef for Busch Stadium, who talked about what was available to us in the Legends Club: several types of brats with sauerkraut, some vegan options, the "4 hand nachos" which included seasoned ground beef, cheese sauce, jalapenos, onions, salsa, and more; and last but not least Bill Dewitt's favorite pasta dish which included penne pasta, tomato cream sauce, prosciutto, chicken, and mushrooms that I might add was delicious and will probably be what I get next time I'm at the stadium. The chef also mentioned that his dad too hates the DH.

So after getting my Stan Musial pin we all headed over to the Legends Club and got to feast on all that good food and some of the best tasting Budweiser I've ever had. I was very impressed how they treated the bloggers and how open the Q&A with Mozeliak and Dewitt was. The game ended up being an afterthought as it was a terrible game. All the fun was in getting all the free goodies and hearing all that info. A hearty thank you to the Cardinals organization for a fantastic event!

Other things I remember that I didn't list are that Rosenthal and Kelly are still getting used to the big leagues and how to harness their pitches, how Mozeliak had a certain sense of awe when talking about Taveras and even Wong and Wacha, which I would guess are his top 3 prospects if I had to guess. He was also very high on Carlos Martinez and to expect him sooner rather than later in the big leagues.

And one last thing: the road cap controversy was referenced by Bill Dewitt III! He said that the online polling was a virtual tie, and that they probably did the poll too soon. So for now they are going with the idea that the team will wear the blue cap vs teams with a red hat when on the road. He seemed to be on the side of the red cap people though. So the issue does not seem to be a finished one and we can probably expect another poll.

I will post another article on all of this at http://www.85percentsports.com in the next few days, so check it out!

Farm system success, Jermaine Curtis mentioned as someone who worked really hard and got promoted
Dewitt talked about Ball Park Village and the upcoming Cardinals Hall of Fame (which will include Cooperstown players as well as "really good" Cardinals). They are buying a lot of memorabilia as well as going to display items they already have. This is all supposed to be done by Opening Day 2014. Over a hundred events are scheduled to be at Ballpark Village.
Success of Dynamic Pricing campaign
Ongoing efforts to improve wifi access and cell reception in the stadium
The general consensus is that the Dewitt family does not like the DH, and both Bill Dewitt III and John Mozeliak feel that the DH being in the NL is far from inevitable. None of the owners or the commissioner are currently talking about bringing the DH to the NL, and they seemed to indicate that it is more of a media buzz thing, rather than being something that is gaining momentum. Dewitt said "zero discussion in the owner's meetings". Mozeliak said in the event that DH would be a part of the NL, a Matt Adams type of player would be the DH. As someone who is also not a fan of the DH in the NL, it made me happy to find out that the Dewitts are not fans of it either, and that they don't see it as an inevitability as some people do.
There was a question about Field Fx analytics, and Mozeliak said that these are not accurate enough yet to be a replacement for scouting, but that they are looked at to some extent. He also mentioned that the Pirates use them a lot, and that you might see fielding shifts by them mid-count.
Mozeliak spoke of one of the successes of the farm system being valuing players that are not being valued by the market. Gave Descalso and Matt Adams as examples of this type of player.
Broke down valuing offense in players as players who hit the ball "hard and often", and beyond that, that they like gap hitters.
Compared Taveras to a mix between Albert Pujols and JD Drew, and said that the Vlad Guerrero comparison was not the best since Taveras has more plate discipline.
Mozeliak said that he asked questions of Bing Devine for GM pointers
Mozeliak said unfortunately there are no great options for a shortstop in this year's draft
also commented on how Matheny takes a great interest in the Cardinals' minor league system
used the phrase "having said that" many times
came off as being an open-minded and intelligent guy, was pretty interesting to hear him divulge all this info but not going too in depth about anything
commented on the greater velocity in pitchers around this time being more of an improvement in technology in measuring the speed as the ball leaves the pitcher's hand than there being a ton more high velocity pitchers in the league
someone asked at the end if they could use Mozeliak's office to fire Wigginton, but John just said that since Wigginton is just meant to be a pinch hitter that he has value in preventing the ballclub from starting the clock on players that would end up not getting enough playing time being a PH

I will post another article on all of this at http://www.85percentsports.com in the next few days, so check it out!

Last chance for VEBday tickets

2013-04-24T18:30:13Z

I'm buying tickets on May 1, so this week is your last chance to tell me you're coming.

Details found here

So far, we have:

fink + 1

adieuordie + 1

spants + 1

bgh + 1

solanus

rejuvenile

hazel

evilfrog

~~pattimagee wolves done ate 'im.~~

~~possibly cardinalsfan645 the wargs got this'un~~

Not coming to the game, but coming to pre or post festivities are

Azru, Fritz, SecondHalfMatt, pattimagee's corpse maybe and also maybe sheckiezxorhoweverit'sspelled

Paulspike is coming if we can raise $800 for his plane ticket.

Anyone else? You got a week to tell me!

I'm buying tickets on May 1, so this week is your last chance to tell me you're coming.

Details found here

So far, we have:

fink + 1

adieuordie + 1

spants + 1

bgh + 1

solanus

rejuvenile

hazel

evilfrog

~~pattimagee wolves done ate 'im.~~

~~possibly cardinalsfan645 the wargs got this'un~~

Not coming to the game, but coming to pre or post festivities are

Azru, Fritz, SecondHalfMatt, pattimagee's corpse maybe and also maybe sheckiezxorhoweverit'sspelled

Paulspike is coming if we can raise $800 for his plane ticket.

Anyone else? You got a week to tell me!

Viva El Runners t-shirts

2013-04-24T14:32:39Z

This year we have two teams going, and while we are not up to full on each, I will be ordering 30 t-shirts. With full teams that would leave 14 t-shirts to give out to to people who donate on VEB. If we don't fill both teams, that will be even more. It will be first to donate.

Now...

On To design. I have one thought, which is a red t-shirt with a white number 6 on the front. The 6 with have angel wings, and an Arch acting as halo above it.

Anyone else have any thoughts? Also, runners on both teams please email me your tshirt sizes. I'll bring them to the run.

Donators please email me your size, username, and full name and address. (full name is used to confirm you donated on cardinals care's website.) If you want a shirt.

Now...

On To design. I have one thought, which is a red t-shirt with a white number 6 on the front. The 6 with have angel wings, and an Arch acting as halo above it.

Anyone else have any thoughts? Also, runners on both teams please email me your tshirt sizes. I'll bring them to the run.

Donators please email me your size, username, and full name and address. (full name is used to confirm you donated on cardinals care's website.) If you want a shirt.