too bad they couldn’t cash in that bit of luck in the 7th inning, ie the bases-loaded single that hit the baserunner; you don’t get many gifts like that in a season. if it goes through, the reds probably go ahead by 3 or 4 and the game’s over. alas, the LOB curse that houstoncardinal wrote about sunday got in the way again --- cards left 10 men on and had their own bases-loaded misadventure, back in the 3d inning. that’s where they lost the game. although the score was 4-0 at that point, arroyo was hardly looking sharp --- 5 of the first 12 men he faced had reached base, he wasn’t keeping the ball down, wasn’t hitting corners. he was ripe. duncan hits arroyo pretty well -- .313 career average / .625 slugging coming into the game --- and he singled in his first at-bat. here’s how arroyo pitched him in the key 3d-inning at-bat:

in, in, and in. similar pattern when duncan came up in the 5th with pujols on first ---

and the last out of the game, against cordero (again with a man on), came on a fastball in on the hands. is everybody pitching duncan this way? and if they are, am i the last one to notice? [UPDATE: apparently i am the last to notice --- or at least, not the first; azruavatar posted on this very same subject (ie, duncan getting busted inside) a couple weeks ago --- gameday screen capture and everything. . . . ]

anyway, back to the 3d inning --- duncan popped out and dimmed the prospects for the rally; they scratched out a run on glaus’s walk, but that’s a weak return on a one-out, sacks-jammed opportunity with the 4/5 hitters at bat against a laboring pitcher. even a single by duncan (or glaus, for that matter) makes it a different game; an extra-base blow and the cards have a good shot to come back and win that game.

ryan ludwick batted leadoff last night, as a few people on this board have been suggesting since spring training; the one-game returns weren’t positive, which doesn't mean anything; i’ll credit la russa for thinking unconventionally and batting ludwick there instead of going with a more orthodox leadoff type like izturis or kennedy. it's an interesting experiment, and on a team such as this i'm in favor of experimentation. but in my opinion they've got another leadoff-man experiment that's working out so far --- schumaker and barton. those two have occupied the leadoff slot in 25 of the 27 games to date, and cardinal leadoff men rank first in the league in runs and walks and 3d in obp.

wellemeyer kept the ball in the park for only the second time all year. interesting split --- in his three starts at home this year, he has yielded 22 fly balls and only 1 homer; on the road, 21 fly balls and 5 homers. not drawing any conclusions from that, but keeping my eye on it. as long as wellemeyer keeps throwing strikes, i’m fine with him staying in the rotation. last night he only walked 2 men last night and threw nearly 70 percent of his pitches for strikes, and he continues to miss bats (11 swinging strikes last night). what the hell; leave him out there and see if he can keep it up. but now here’s the irony: the stated rationale for using wellemeyer in the rotation was that the cardinals won all but one of his starts last year. i thought that was a dumb reason, as the w-l had less to do with wellemeyer than with his teammates. but now wellemeyer’s actually showing signs of being a decent power pitcher ---- striking a lot of guys out (he ranks 3d in the nl in strikeouts as of this morning, and 5th in k/9) and keeping them off the basepaths --- but the team’s only 3-3 in his starts. with mulder’s return looming, the colonel’s hold on a rotation slot remains pretty dicey.

gotta keep it short today. it’s a year since josh hancock’s fatal accident, a fitting time to remember him and think about the circumstances of his death.

Lincecum	Piñeiro
2-0, 2.25	0-1, 14.73

First off, I want to thank Lboros for covering for me on Wednesday.  I greatly appreciate the helping hand, Lb.  You made a very difficult time a little bit easier to bear. 

Tremendous win last night by the Cardinals.  The offense put together it's biggest inning of the year so far, the six run fourth, it's biggest run total at 11, and the largest margin of victory so far.  All of this against one of the best young pitchers in the game today. 

The real key to this game, and, in my ever so humble opinion, the key going forward, was the performance of the top of the lineup.  The top two hitters last night, Skip Schumaker and Chris Duncan, respectively, combined to go 4 for 7 with three walks.  Between the two of them, they got on base ahead of Albert and the middle of the lineup seven times.  Duncan hit a homer and a double, driving in two.  Schumaker drove in a pair as well with a two run single in the fourth that continued the inning.  Even more remarkable than the run production from those two spots was the runs scored.  The two of them combined to score six, count 'em, six times. 

There's been a ton of talk recently about trying to find some better protection for Albert in the lineup, and most of it has focused, naturally, on the cleanup position.  To me, though, the first two spots in the lineup represent the only real chance the Cardinals have to get that protection for Albert.  There is no hitter in baseball that's going to force opposing pitchers to pitch to Albert.  Runners on base ahead of him, though, will.  The top two spots in this lineup are far more important to whether or not Albert will see any pitches to hit than the hitters behind him, in my opinion.  As long as those two can continue to get on base, teams will be forced to try and get Albert out.  We saw firsthand last night what sorts of results we can expect in those cases. 

There is, however, a downside to the performance of those two outfielders last night, though, particularly Duncan.  As long as they keep producing, it makes it much harder for me to complain that Crab Man should be getting more playing time.  This puts me in a bind, as I happen to be a huge backer of Mr. Barton.  It's a very trying situation, you know, whenever reality interferes with your personal preferences.  Sigh...

As impressive as the offense was, I was personally more astounded by the performance of Wellemeyer.  I've been a very vocal critic in the past of Welley in the rotation, but I've been mostly won over.  I say mostly because I still fear he isn't able to give consistent six plus inning performances, and I worry about the burden on the pen, probably more than I really should.  Last night, though, Wellemeyer turned in probably the best start of his career, and one of the two or three best starts we've seen from a Cardinal hurler this season. 

In his seven innings of work, Wellemeyer gave only one run on four hits, (the run scoring hit, of course, being an infield single off of his- ahem- lower back type region area) with six strikeouts to two walks.  Those last numbers, to me, represent the really important statistic to look at here. 

With the addition of those numbers, Wellemeyer now has 26 strikeouts to only 9 walks, in 25 innings of work.  That's almost exactly in line with his 3:1 K/BB ratio from last night's game.  The knock on Wellemeyer, of course, has always been his elevated walk numbers and high pitch counts.  If this is a genuine improvement, (and obviously, the sample size isn't large enough to determine a whole lot, but it is getting close to being at least significant) then suddenly Wellemeyer isn't a serviceable starter, but a potential front half of the rotation starter.  I'm not sure how this has happened, and I don't know if it's sustainable, but I'm hoping. 

Last night, he was about as efficient as you can possibly imagine he ever will be.  He threw 107 pitches, 72 for strikes.  He struck out six, got seven groundball outs, eight fly outs.  Anytime you see a strike to ball ratio of better than 2:1, you have to take notice.  Wellemeyer, in addition to being efficient and aggressive, was throwing gas last night.  Going by the Pitchf/x data, (and I'm just getting used to using it, so bear with me if I'm not quite right) he was averaging 93.7 mph on his fastball, with a high of 95.5.  For a starter, that's an incredible combination of velocity and control. 

All of this, of course, really begs the question: what happens to Wellemeyer next?  When Mark Mulder comes back, which should be in about three weeks, he's expected to slide into the rotation.  Wainwright's rotation spot is secure, along with Looper.  Kyle Lohse has obviously done nothing to pitch his way out of the rotation.  Pineiro was resigned just this past offseason, to a two year deal.  He signed with the Cardinals specifically because they guaranteed him a spot starting, so I imagine they would be loathe to move him to the bullpen, even on a temporary basis.  So where exactly does the team go with Welley?  He has better raw stuff than any pitcher on the staff outside of Adam Wainwright, (and that's a close call) and, possibly Anthony Reyes, he's striking out hitters at a rate of better than one per inning, and, most importantly, he's maintaining a K/BB ratio of almost 3:1.  Yet, because of the roster numbers, he may face losing his spot in the rotation. 

I know it's still a ways off, so why don't I just table the question until it actually comes up, right?  Well, I ask because we've already seen one starter bumped for a returning pitcher in Brad Thompson, who now faces an additional crisis with the impending return of Russ Springer.  The decision on what to do with Wellemeyer and the other starters will be here much quicker than we realise, and with the way Welley has pitched so far this year, it could end up being a very significant decision. 

So, a couple of points to discuss this morning. 

One, what do you do with the looming roster crunch?  If all remains equal as it does today, (which I know will not happen, but still) who loses their spot?  Should anyone? 

Two, what have you been most surprised by this season so far?  Pleasant or unpleasant, either way.  My personal surprises have been the aforementioned Messrs. Wellemeyer and Schumaker.  Wellemeyer has improved in the one area that always kept him back, and Skippy appears, at least to my eyes, to have become a viable major league hitter.  It may still be early, but Skip has passed every test presented to him so far with flying colours, and I don't see any major weaknesses in his game to really hinder him.  I freely admit, I never saw it coming.  Reyes has been a pleasant surprise also, but I actually always believed in him.  The other two, not so much. 

Three, in last night's overflow thread, there was a bit of discussion of what theme song would best embody the glory that is the Cardinals' mulletted backup catcher, Jason LaRue.  There were many suggestions, with Def Leppard receiving some shoutouts, (or should that be shouts out?  I'm not very good with the modern vernacular...) Ratt's "Round and Round" coming up, and Styx getting some love.  I want you to give me LaRue's perfect theme song, and any song you desperately want to see used by a player, be it a batter or a reliever.  For LaRue, I nominate Foreigner's "Dirty White Boy" or, even better, pretty much anything from the Red Rocker, St. Louis favourite Sammy Hagar.  I think something from the Hagar catalogue would be particularly good; he's a beloved icon here in the Lou, especially among those who sport facial hair of a similar bent to LaRue's own, he's already associated with red, so there's a nice Cardinal tie in... I think it's a match made in heaven.  What do you guys think? 

One last thing: also from the overflow last night, Mr. Redbird referred to Troy Glaus as "Santa Glaus."  I don't know if this is the first time he's been called as such here; it's the first I've noticed.  Anyhow, I vote that we make Santa Glaus the official VEB nickname for Troy.  I think maybe a really great nickname is just what he needs to get going.  What say you, denizens of El Vivi Birders? 

That's all I got.  It was too good of a game to really complain much, so let's just bask a little bit.  Reality will kick in soon enough, right about the time Tim Lincecum goes into that ridiculous windup of his and blows the first fastball past our leadoff hitter.  Good luck, boys.  You're probably going to need it. 

Later, everybody.

i usually don’t write on wednesdays, but the red baron is traveling to a funeral today so i’m covering. he lost someone very close; my thoughts are with you, dude.

star of last night’s game goes to kyle mcclellan. he gets out of the 6th-inning jam throwing mostly breaking stuff ---- 8 sliders / curves in 12 pitches. then in the 7th, pitching with the bases empty against the rump of the order, he blows them away with 12 fastballs in 14 pitches. guy’s got some weapons. the cardinal bullpen now sports a league-leading 2.74 era and has allowed just 3 of 18 inherited runners to score. skip schumaker also merits a little mention --- couple of 2-out rbi hits plus a walk. cardinal leadoff men have a .403 on-base percentage so far, mainly thanks to schu (he’s led off 10 of the 14 games); his BB last night was his 7th in 50 plate appearances, or 1 walk fewer than he drew in 188 plate appearances last year. that’s a significant change in his game. his high obp last year was entirely a product of his high batting average, which in turn was mostly a product of (coughluckcough) random chance; small sample size plus high BABIP = fluke. he won’t hit .333 again this year, but if he can walk once every 10 plate appearances he won’t have to; a .275 average will do just fine. insert obligatory caveat here ---- it’s very early, we’re just sizing things up, blah blah blah. based on available evidence, the cardinal leadoff spot --- subject of much discussion and concern all spring --- has been one of the lineup’s strengths.

i can't get excited about kennedy. he's got 0 extra-base hits so far, and no signs of producing one any time soon; he had just 3 (all doubles) in 40 S.T. at-bats. miles doesn't have any XBH either, and izturis only has 2 (both doubles); it's worse than people feared. the middle-infield corps is hitting an aggregate .255 / .342 / .276. well, like we keep saying, it's early . . . . . .

last night’s game may be the answer to a trivia question: when’s the first time in big-league history that neither team batted the pitcher 9th? i asked sean forman of Baseball-Reference.com to do a quick run on his data; he writes back that it hasn’t happened since 1956, the limit of his archive of boxscores (compiled by the invaluable Retrosheet). there are still 50+ years unaccounted for, so it’s possible --- even likely --- that last night’s lineup oddity happened at least once before. here’s a list (sorted by team-season) of every game in which one team didn’t hit the pitcher 9th, going back to 1956. for some reason, there was a spate of pitcher-hitting-other-than-9th lineups in 1957; four different teams (1/4 of the big-league clubs at that time) used one at least once that year, and the kansas city athletics did it on a regular basis (56 games). it won’t surprise you to know that the la russa-led cardinals have batted the pitcher outside the 9 slot more times (146 games) than all other teams since 1956 combined (89 times).

here’s a little more trivia related to the manager: only once in his career has he opened the season with more than 10 wins in his first 14 games. that happened in 1990 in oakland, coming off his first world championship; he led the athletics to an 11-3 start and cruised to his 3d straight pennant. he’s started out 10-4 on three other occasions, including his first two seasons as a manager --- 1980-81 in chicago. the other 10-4 start came in 1992 in oakland. before this year, tony’s best starts in st louis were 9-5 marks in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2005.

and in the non-la-russa trivia category, i bet you didn’t know this: chris carpenter follows the cards via mlb gameday:

elsewhere on the injured-pitcher beat, mulder threw 5 innings last night for palm beach; according to chuck king (who does a bang-up job covering the FSL), he was topping out at 88 mph. am i the only one who’s dreading this guy’s return to action? he last pitched well in may 2006; i’m sure there are a few examples of guys who regained effectiveness after two full years of alternately getting knifed by surgeons and clubbed by hitters, but i can’t think of one at the moment. he seems so much a part of the team’s past --- and not the glorious part. he’s like one of those old kinda-sorta friends who calls you from time to time; he’s the last person you want to waste your time on, and you cringe every time you hear from him, but at some point you have to go out and have a beer with the guy because it’s too awkward to keep making excuses. that’s mark mulder to me --- don’t wanna hang w/ you anymore, but i know i’m gonna be stuck doing it.

maybe we can sign einar diaz to catch him, just for old time’s sake.

that’s all i got for now. game thread this p.m.

if you haven’t read Matt Lemmon’s Letter From Springfield, it’s directly below this post and getting a tremendous reception; recommended reading. here’s my contribution to VEB's opening-day coverage.

first of all: if you have any desire to enter the cards’ find-a-prospect scouting contest (aka "One for the Birds"), you have two more days to file your entries; the contest ends at midnight Tuesday night.

more after the jump:

Continue reading this post »