Sanchez	Looper
0-1, 6.00	3-0, 2.70

I suppose the best thing about Pineiro’s start yesterday was that he was able to keep the ball down – getting 14 ground balls to 9 fly balls w/ 3 line drives. He was hit harder in his first start, of course, managing just 8 ground balls to 8 fly balls and 5 line drives. Aside from that, though, it wasn’t a well-pitched game. Once again, he had no K’s. He did have just one walk, but for the season, 10 IP, he has yet to strike anyone out – not a good sign. Out of the 157 pitches he’s thrown in 2 games, he’s only had 9 swing-and-misses. (Wellemeyer’s averaging 10.5 per start so far this year) According to fangraphs, his velocity isn’t lacking – he’s averaging 90.6 in his 2 starts – and he was at 90.8 last year. It must be location that’s a problem, though he only has 1 BB so far. Hopefully, he’ll round into form as he pitches. He really didn’t have much of a spring. Tony doesn’t seem to be worried. I’ll agree that it’s still a little early to be concerned. From the other side, the Giants can’t hit but that Lincecum’s pretty good.

This just in – Albert Pujols, too, is pretty good. He may be off to his best start yet, also. He has 75 PA’s so far and has reached base via walk or hit in 37 of them – a .493 OBP. His career SLG is .620 and this year he’s off to a .644 start. His OPS+ right now is 203. It’s almost gone unnoticed, also, considering Ankiel’s start, and Skip’s and Ludwick’s and Wellemeyer’s, etc. Other players have given us so many pleasant surprises that Albert’s great start hasn’t really appeared that great.

Albert’s reached base in every game this season – even the one in which he didn’t start and he had just 1 PA (intentional walk). He strikes me as, paradoxically, more patient and yet more aggressive at the plate. He seems to have reached a Bondsian grasp of the strike zone, to which his 16 BB’s and 5 K’s attest. But he also seems to be more aggressively attacking pitches to hit early in the count.

Last season, Albert swung at only 83 of the 353 first-pitch strikes he saw – 23.5%. This was an uncharacteristically low number for him. This season he has swung at 13 of 37 first pitch strikes –35% -- more in line w/ his ’06 and ’05 numbers. Here are his career totals:

It stands to reason that the number of strikes Pujols has seen has fallen throughout his career. He’s become one of the most feared hitters in the game and pitchers don’t want to just serve them up. It also stands to reason that he would be swinging at a lower % of first-pitch strikes as well. He’s become a more patient hitter, as demonstrated by his increasing walk rate. Last year, however, there was a big difference in his approach. He let 270 first-pitch strikes go by w/o pulling the trigger. He also had the worst (by his standards) season of his career. This year he seems to be back on track. He’s looking for his pitch to hit and, when he sees it, he’s hitting it. When they don’t give him the pitch he wants, he’s willing to take the walk.

Just to get a glimpse of how well he’s beginning this season, his OBP is far and away the highest of his career – 54 points over his previous career high in 2003. He’s on a pace for 144 BB’s and only 45 K’s. Those truly are Bondsian numbers. I’m not sure he can continue this pace throughout the season. The other hitters in the lineup are likely to slump and he may put more pressure on himself to produce, thus swinging at bad pitches. I, for one, hope he can keep it up. He doesn’t seem to be swinging at any bad pitches and when he sees one he likes, he’s drilling it.

Isn’t it time, considering all we’ve learned about the importance of on-base percentage over the last several years, that we stop saying things like, "Pujols was 0 for 3 w/ a walk yesterday?" It’s time we started calling that 1 for 4. The second game of the year Pujols was 2 for 2 and walked 3 times. That’s 5 for 5 in my book. Anybody gets on base 5 times in a game needs to be recognized for it…period. He had a 4-5 game against Houston (2 HR’s) and a 4-6 game in SF. He had 1 hit and 5 BB’s in the 3 game series against the Nats earlier in the season – a sweep, by the way. Most would say he was 1-7 in that series. I would say he was 6-12. There’s a huge difference in perception and the 6-12 number is, IMO, a better indicator of his importance to the offense in that series. The Cards didn’t win 3 DESPITE Pujols going 1-7. They swept the Nats partly BECAUSE he went 6-12.

Looper goes for the Cards today against a guy I want to see pitch – Jonathan Sanchez. Looper’s been pretty good so far (2.70 ERA) but those 5 BB’s last time out concern me. He still has yet to give up a homer this year though (knock on wood) and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he’s going to be OK. Some teams may single him to death but he’ll have more good starts than bad if he doesn’t give up the homers. It’s not as if he’s facing the ’27 Yankees today either. We haven’t lost a series yet. Let’s see that trend continue today.

good discussion going over in Hardcore Legend’s FanPost about the cards’ search for a cleanup hitter --- ~50 comments and counting. a number of the commenters commended HL for the depth of the analysis, and i’d like to reinforce that. this is an example of what the FanPost section is meant for --- something that’s well thought-out and researched, and that offers a ton of meat for discussion. far too many of our FanPosts are shallow toss-offs without anything behind them --- "hey guys, what do you think of player X?" half the FanPosts currently running on the front page drew fewer than 10 comments --- ie, they didn’t generate any discussion. what’s the harm in that, you ask? dud FanPosts push other, better FanPosts --- ones that are generating discussion --- off the front page.

i’m not suggesting that every FanPost has to be as heavy-duty as HL’s --- that’s a high standard to meet. but i’d like to have more of them where the author thought his/her subject over and maybe did a little research before posting --- as opposed to just tossing something out there on a whim. FanPosts of the former type add a lot to the site; the latter just clutter it up.

bernie miklasz points out in his column this morning that the cardinal rotation started off just as hot in 2007 as it has in 2008. somebody made a similar point in one of the game threads over the weekend. i did a little addin’ up to flesh out the comparison. through 13 games:

again, we’re looking at starting pitchers only. this year’s rotation has a much better k/bb ratio (nearly 3 to 1, truly outstanding), but last year’s came out of the gate throwing more innings, allowing fewer hits and fewer homers, and --- most telling --- delivering quality starts ("QS" in the table) more reliably. (even randy keisler threw a quality start in the first 13 games of 2007.) the rotation had a much worse won-loss last year for a simple reason: the offense totaled only 42 runs in the first 13 games, vs the 60 runs the 2008 offense has backed the staff with. last year’s hitters only scored 4 or more runs in 3 of the first 13 games; this year’s team has scored 4 or more 8 times. a few more numbers, for the sabermetrically inclined:

"SC" stands for "game score"; the starters avg game score was slightly higher last year, and their slash lines were much, much better; FIP tilts slightly to the 2008 rotation, a reflection of its stellar k/bb ratio so far.

but that leads me to a final comparison --- a hopeful one --- and then i promise i’ll leave last year behind. the 2007 rotation had allowed a BABIP of just .276 through 13 games --- an unsustainably low figure, one that would have told us (had we checked) that the starters couldn’t go on pitching at that level; more hits were bound to start falling. (for those unfamiliar with the concept of BABIP, there are explanations here and here.) this year’s rotation has a BABIP of .303 so far, which is about an average figure. so this year’s good start rests on a firmer foundation than last year’s; it’s more squarely centered on ability than on random chance. of course, we’ve now got the lame-winged pineiro and mulder returning to duty, rendering these figures somewhat meaningless; the next 13 games will probably be more predictive of the staff’s future performance than the 13 just completed.

some thoughts about pineiro and wellemeyer after the jump.

Continue reading this post »