stroke of good luck for st louis: they don’t have to face peavy tonight. instead they’ll face a journeyman left-handed pitcher, wil ledezma, with a 5.09 career era. the cardinals always tee off on guys like this . . . .

i’m well aware that clutch hitting comes and goes; it’s not really a "skill" except in rare cases. but from a purely descriptive standpoint, skip schumaker’s achievements in the clutch so far in 2008 deserve mention. his game-winner yesterday was his 3d walk-off hit of the year, to go along with his clinching blows on april 26 (single) and may 2 (homer). he also had a 9th-inning game-winner on the road (ie, not a walkoff) on april 21 against milwaukee (double). in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats so far this year, schumaker has 7 base hits --- 4 singles, 2 doubles, and a homer --- plus a sacrifice and a "productive out" (he grounded to 2d, moving the go-ahead run to 3d base with 1 out; he later scored). that’s 7 for 9, if you’re scoring at home. the full list, courtesy of fangraphs:

you’ll note that 3 of the at-bats on this list occurred in yesterday’s game, in the 6th, 8th, and 9th innings. to reiterate, i’m not arguing that schumaker’s clutch performance represents a repeatable skill; in his next 10 high-leverage at-bats, he might very well go 1 for 10. (for the record, skip was 3 for 9 with a walk in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats of 2007.) but his heroics in the early going deserve some recognition.

the anti-skip of 2008 thus far is rick ankiel: in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats, he is 0 for 10 with 6 strikeouts and 4 groundouts; hasn’t even gotten the ball out of the infield. last year he was 3 for 10 with a homer in his 10 highest-leverage at-bats . . . . . chris duncan is 1 for 10 so far in 2008. oh what the hell, here’s the whole list, ordered by win probability added:

intentional walks are not included on this list; pujols has been passed 3 times in high-leverage situations, but i’m not counting those. for the final time, this list is not intended to identify who’s a clutch player and who’s a choker; it describes what has happened so far this year, but that bears little if any relation to what may happen going forward.

items:

• welcome to the big leagues, chris perez --- and jason motte may not be far behind. he struck out the side in the 9th yesterday to preserve a 1-0 win and earn his first save as perez’s replacement in memphis. motte pitched to 7 batters over the weekend and struck out 6 of’m; the other guy singled.
• in the same game, mitch boggs threw 7 innings of 2-hit, no-run ball with the following outfield playing behind him: gabe johnson, a catcher, in left field; joe mather, a first baseman, in center; and nick stavinoha, a first baseman who converted to outfield two years ago, in right field. boggs is making a powerful case for promotion --- he’s 4-1 with a 3.33 era; striking guys out, avoiding walks, keeping the ball in the park, and getting groundballs.
• the 1986 sim-strat-o-cardinals are tied 1-1 with the yankees in the world series . the bronx bombers roughed up john tudor yesterday.
• david eckstein sighting: were y’all aware that he’s been on the DL since may 6? i wasn’t . . . . he committed 6 errors in his first 30 games.

Q: what’s the downside of the 5-1 start? A: last night’s game thread.

the cards’ unexpectedly good start has raised everybody’s expectations, which in turn raises the piss-n-moan factor when the team turns out to be (gasp) fallible. one loss, and here come 800 comments’ worth of knee-jerk carping about how la russa and duncan are complete idiots --- as if they had nothing at all to do with the 5-1 start. or nothing to do with putting todd wellemeyer out there. he shouldn’t even be in the rotation according to a majority of this community (myself included), but i didn’t read a single comment on last night’s thread which said "maybe tony n dave made the right call on wellemeyer." i only read how those two morons were costing the team games.

but that’s the beauty of knee-jerk carping --- you’re not obliged to use fairness or logic. or maybe i should say you get to use some bizarro alternative form of fairness / logic --- the same kind my 4- and 6-year-olds invoke when they don’t get their way. here’s a textbook example of "alternative logic": for 2 solid years, whenever la russa benched duncan against a left-handed pitcher the VEB community bellowed "la russa’s an idiot! duncan’s our second-best hitter!!" last night tony had duncan in the lineup vs a left-hander . . . . . and the community bellowed "la russa’s an idiot! duncan can’t hit lefties!!"

here’s another example: tony always gets ragged on for his blind loyalty to veteran pitchers and his distrust of youngsters; i rag on him for that all the time. well, last night tony passed over his veteran setup man (franklin) and entrusted a 9th-inning tie to a rookie; when the kid lost the game, the board started piling on la russa again. one person even wrote "f**k larussa and duncan," for which he earned some polite encouragement to familiarize himself w/ the Community Guidelines.

one passage in the Community Guidelines goes like this: "there’s a difference between making a critical point and pounding your fists on the floor. if all you have to offer is the latter, do not post." there was some worthwhile, intelligent criticism on the thread last night --- the kind of discussion that makes the community strong. it’s fair to argue that brian barton had earned a 4th consecutive start, and that his absence exacerbated the cards’ vulnerability vs left-handed pitching. i agree with that argument --- last night’s lineup did not give the cards their best chance to win. but if the argument is that the lineup caused the loss, i disagree strongly; brian barton, who has 11 big-league at-bats, ain’t the sole difference between losses and wins. not yet; not singlehandedly. if you repeat that argument a couple hundred times with ever-mounting frustration and snark, it’s not an argument at all; that’s just infantile pounding of fists on the floor. the floor sustained an awful beating last night --- on april 7th. in the cards’ second loss of the season. there are probably 75 to 85 more losses left on the schedule. if last night’s thread is the standard, there’s no way the floor can survive all year. it’s gonna cave.

i’m rarely on the game threads as they unfold; i’m usually playing with my kids, brushing their teeth, and tucking ’em in bed. i come along later and read the commentary, and i am often entertained by the sharp wit and the keen observations, but some passages make me cringe. when things don't go well for the team, the herd starts looking for a scapegoat and then mercilessly pounds away. a large chunk of the community, including many of VEB's most knowledgeable and long-standing members, avoids the game threads like the plague, and i can understand why. but i think it’s a shame.

* * * * * * * *

a few notes about the ballgame itself:

• wellemeyer’s start was easily the best of his big-league career. he completed 7 innings for the first time ever, and he induced 16 swing / misses last night while walking just one man --- dominance. i haven’t looked carefully at the pitch FX data yet, but at a glance it looks like he was getting everything over --- fastball, slider, change. both the homers came on off-speed pitches --- a changeup to berkman, a hanging slider to lee.
• troy glaus made his bones last night, eh? i wouldn’t exactly say he plowed over towles on the play at the plate, but he didn’t shy away from contact either. just as impressive, imho, was his disciplined at-bat moments earlier --- he laid off a verrrry tempting 2-strike splitter, waited out valverde for a fastball and put a decent swing on it.
• one possible reason ryan franklin didn’t pitch the bottom of the 9th: the two hitters due up, lee and tejada, both have good career numbers against him --- .280 / .333 / .520 for lee (2 hr in 25 ab), and .321 / .406 / .429 for tejada.
• and a minor-league note: mitchell boggs made an impressive debut at triple A --- 6 innings, 3 hits, 1 run (unearned). jason motte pitched 1.1 innings of relief and struck out 3 guys; so far he’s struck out half the men he has faced at the triple A level, while allowing just 2 baserunners. might not be too long before we see him in st louis . . . . .

Well, Azru stole my opening joke for his post yesterday, so I got nothing. Oh well.

Hey, did you hear the one about the radio host who tricks people into coming on to his show? No? Here you go. Apparently, Kevin Slaten is no longer content with just haranguing Cardinal officials from afar. He just has to get them on, no matter how unethical or possibly illegal it may be.

Have I mentioned how much I dislike Mr. Slaten and his ilk? I believe I have, at some point in time. I've been quite critical of Dave Duncan at various times, for various reasons. However, this sort of thing is just ridiculous and uncalled for. I'm not sure who exactly is in charge over at KFNS, but they should be very proud of their station as it continues to circle the drain. Congratulations, KFNS, for lowering the bar for us all.

It appears that Uncle Rico is going to make the team. I'm really excited about this move. I think it's important to have a player on your team who can throw a football over a mountain. You just never know when a quarter mile toss could be the difference between victory and defeat. Seriously, though, it is very exciting to see a career minor leaguer like Rico finally get his shot at the big time. He probably won't be around too very long, as he's expected to go back down when Brendan Ryan gets healthy, but at 30 years old, Rico Washington will be wearing a Major League uniform on Opening Day. Congratulations, Rico. I wonder if this could just be the 2008 model of John Rodriguez? Similar skillset, although Rico is obviously an infielder, guy who gets an initial look because of some injuries, and his bat's just too damn good to send him back. I guess we'll see.

Opening Day for the Cardinals is Monday afternoon. There's not really a whole left to say about the roster; it appears to be set. No reason to rehash any more Anthony Reyes drama; it's just needless arguing at this point. The predictions are all in; we aren't going to be very good, at least by the numbers. So what to talk about?

I thought today we would just open it up and everybody toss in your ideas about the new season to be. What's everybody planning on doing for this most momentous of occasions? I feel fairly confident that at least some of you have made special arrangements to be around for the game; seeing as how we are all members of a community that have spent literally thousands of hours the past six months discussing baseball with absolutely no actual baseball happening.

Bukowski has a nice Fanpost up about his favourite opening day memories. Let's have some of those, too. Any particular season openers that stand out in your mind? Maybe you spent it with a loved one who isn't around any longer. Maybe you just go stranded on the side of the road trying to get into downtown St. Louis when the radiator in your past it's prime Mustang blew a hose. You know, hypothetically. That totally didn't happen to me in 1999. It's a really great post by Mr. Bukowski, by the way. Check it out.

Most of all, though, what are you hoping to see this season? Are you looking for a playoff appearance? Do you want to see the kids get a chance? Do you just hope the team doesn't embarass itself? Want to make a bold, certain to be wrong prediction? Here's the place to do it. And all you realists out there, none of that today. Let's all be optimistic today. It's the weekend, and baseball is on the way. Even I, as cynical and bitter a human being as you could ever hope to encounter, can't find it in my heart to believe anything but the best for this team right now. Seven pm, Monday night, we'll see if reality set in. For now, though, we're a title contending team.

Hey. Remember Spring Surprises? Well, the results are in, and the winners are:

On the position side, I think Joe Mather made the biggest leap forward in everyone's eyes. We all knew Rasmus was going to be good, and he didn't disappoint. Jose Martinez put up a nice spring, and the aforementioned Uncle Rico did some very nice things, with a little extra credit for making the team. (On a related note, Skippy has been surprising but not that surprising; he is Mr. March, after all) Barton has been a definite, pleasant surprise. Overall, though, Mather came in just hoping to make a bit of an impression, and ended up seriously in the conversation to take over Scott Spiezio's utility role with the team. Joe Mather, everybody!

Pitcher? Not even close. Kyle McClellan, St. Louis native, has thrown a limited number of innings above the single A level. He only has a year of pitching under his belt since Tommy John surgery. He's young and unheralded and should be grateful that his Springfield uniform fits so well. Kyle McClellan will be standing in Busch Stadium on Opening Day, watching as the Clydesdales he's tried to describe to Brian Barton parade around the stadium. Of all the longshots in camp, K-Mac, (nope, not letting it go) has to be the longest of all. Congratulations, Mr. McClellan.

More importantly than the players who surprised, though, is the burning question on everyone's mind: who called it? Who won our very own Spring competition?

AlberttheKing23 and cardschinmusic both had Mather. Excellent calls, gentlemen. Personally, I thought Mather would come in and struggle, more in line with his AAA line from last season. I wasn't a believer; count me among the converted.

Cariocacardinal and Hinkster both picked McClellan; again, kudos to the both of you. I picked Motte. I think I would do it again, as I think Jason has a nice future ahead of him. For the love of god, someone teach that kid to throw a splitter! As for McClellan, though, I'm curious: what did you guys see in him, exactly? I was aware of him coming in, but I never saw this kind of breakout coming. Heck of a call.

Our winner, and new supreme ruler, though, is...

Drum roll, please...

Hungry Jack. He had both Mather and McClellan. Congratulations, Hungry Jack. If I had thought this through a little better back in January, I would have laid in some sort of prize. However, seeing as how I failed to do so, you have only my eternal admiration. Fantastic calls, both. Huzzah!

One last thing. Shameless personal plug coming. The River Front Times, the independent alt journal here in St. Louis, is going to starting a Cards blog this season. I've been asked to be the main contributor. I'm incredibly excited to get this kind of an opportunity, and I really hope that you'll all come and visit me over there. The format is still a little up in the air at the moment, but we're taking the 'jump in head first' approach to the thing. Here's the link to the site:

riverfronttimes.com

It will be under the "STLog" area; there's also a link directly to that section on the sidebar here. Again, I'm all kinds of excited to be doing this; I really hope to see some of you around over there.

Alright, everybody. Here we go. Let's all enjoy this last bit of anticipation that we have. Two days until real baseball.

I can almost taste it.