heads up from will carroll: he’ll have an interview today with cards’ assistant gm john abbamondi on Baseball Prospecus radio. you can download the show here.

last night’s game . . . . . where to start? they squandered too many scoring chances; that pattern continues. for the second time this year, pujols made a fielding misplay that cost the cardinals a late lead. above all, isringhausen blew another save and took another loss. i’m not trying to downplay the concern over the bullpen, because it’s serious; they need to get that problem under control before it starts costing them bushels of games. but it hasn’t cost them bushels so far; it only seems that way. i can really only fault the pen for 2 losses: last night’s, and the april 25 loss to the astros. in both games, the cards’ win expectancy was above 90 percent until the bullpen got involved. have there been other blown saves? sure, but no bullpen is perfect; you can’t hold every lead or preserve every tie. the cards have played a lot of close games this year, and they’ve won more than their share.

we tend to lose sight of that fact when we witness maddening failure as we did last night; we tend to forget how often the bullpen has come through and sealed a win --- as it did just a couple nights previous, on monday, when four relievers pitched 6 innings of 1-run ball and enabled the cards to steal a very tenuous win. or the night before that, in the sunday night ESPN game, when the relievers held the cubs to 1 run over 4 innings and brought home a 5-3 victory. last night’s defeat left the bullpen with a net WPA of about +0.23 for the season ---- not great, but far from terrible. and Baseball Prospectus’s win-expectancy metric, WXRL, has the pen at about +1 win for the year after last night. and both metrics look prettier when you eliminate brad thompson’s stats (0-1, 7.71 era as a reliever) from the equation. does the bullpen have issues? absolutely. but let’s keep them in perspective; the pen isn’t killing the team.

yet.

i might be telling a different story in a week or two, however, if they don’t get izzy out of the closer’s role. here’s the statistic that scares me about him: only 11 percent of his strikes have been swing / misses this year. throughout his career, that figure has been at 18 or 19 percent; even in 2006, 16 percent of his strikes came on whiffs. he’s just not missing bats anymore. here’s how it breaks down on a per-pitch basis:

his offerings are running into bats nearly 50 percent more often than they did last year, and 33 percent more often than they did even during izzy’s peg-legged 2006 season. the league whiff-per-pitch average is 9.9 percent, meaning izzy is well below average this season. it's not just a case of a few off games, or a few unlucky hits that have fallen in. isringhausen isn't the same pitcher he used to be, not by a longshot --- he can’t throw it past hitters anymore. and for that reason, the cardinals can’t keep sending him out there to protect leads.

before i go on: i don’t share the impassioned and unhealthy hatred for is’hausen that is so regrettably common among cardinal fans. he’s the most dependable closer in franchise history; his failure rate has been lower than hrabosky’s, sutter’s, or worrell’s and about even with lee smith’s. he’s appeared in 19 postseason games for the cards and only cost them one --- the kent walkoff homer in game 5 of the 2004 nlcs. the guy’s a great pitcher and a class act; sure it’s frustrating to see him blow games, but he doesn’t deserve the personal abuse that gets heaped on him. spew venom if it makes you feel better; i can’t stop you. but it says more about you than it does about izzy. to me, that guy’s a winner in every respect.

unfortunately, he’s no longer getting the job done; for the team’s sake, he’s got to be replaced. it will take a while (maybe weeks, maybe months) before la russa comes around to that conclusion; when he finally does, what options will he have? a quick look:

• chris perez. after last night’s game he has a 1.72 era at memphis, with twice as many strikeouts (20) as hits allowed (10). he’s got a dominating combo of pitches (fastball-slider) and a mean streak. perez still walks too many guys, but if duncan can get todd wellemeyer to throw strikes than he ought to be able to do the same with this rookie. he’d be my first choice; get him on up here. but hey, speaking of wellemeyer . . . . .
• todd wellemeyer. think outside the box w/ me here. welley has been unhittable in the first inning of his starts in 2008 --- 26 batters faced, 2 hits, 2 walks, 9 ks, no runs allowed. in the one-inning closer’s role, he could be fearsome. there’s also the fact that, pitching out of the cardinal bullpen last year, wellemeyer posted a 1.26 era and held opposing hitters to a .174 average (albeit in a tiny sample of only 14.1 innings). if the team decides that perez still isn’t ready because of his control issues, my second choice would be wellemeyer. has he been good in the rotation? sure --- but let’s not act as if he’s irreplaceable. in 7 outings to date he has 2 quality starts; the cardinals have a pitcher at triple A (reyes) who can pitch at the back of a big-league rotation and another on the current roster (parisi) who probably can, too. this is my second choice. 
• kyle mcclellan. he didn’t exactly cover himself in glory last night; in fact, his line was nearly identical to izzy’s (one single, one triple, one out). the league is still just getting to know mcclellan, and there’s a pretty good chance he will start losing effectiveness once the hitters have a book on him. and let’s not forget, we’re talking about a guy who as of this time last year was in class A. but his k / bb data are great, he has only yielded 2 extra-base hits so far, and he’s kept 8 of 10 inherited runners from scoring. he’d be risky, but what the hell; they stuck a rookie out there (wainwright) last time izzy went down, and it worked out ok. my 3d choice.
• braden looper. he has experience in the job but was never particularly good at it; too valuable now as an innings eater in the rotation. leave him where he is.
• anthony reyes. no way. he’s not suited to it, and the manager doesn’t trust him.
• ryan franklin. if an when isringhausen gets replaced, franklin is probably going to get the first crack at the job by default. it’ll make a lot of folks foam at the mouth; i won’t like the decision either, though i’ll try to keep my outrage in check. there's a decent chance franklin can do a passable job in the short term. if dave weathers can close in the big leagues (he converted 33 of 39 opportunities last year), i reckon ryan franklin might be capable of it too. understand, i’m not endorsing this option; i think it’s a terrible idea. but i’m preparing myself to live with it.
• jason motte. like perez, he has twice as many strikeouts (24) as hits allowed (11) at triple A; he has walked just 4 men in 15 innings. but he’s got less than 2 years’ experience as a pitcher and hasn’t yet developed a quality second pitch to play off his scorching fastball. i love what i’ve seen so far, but i need to see more before i entrust him w/ a high-leverage role.
• mark worrell. only 4 saves last year at memphis, none this year. vulnerable vs left-handed hitters. not an option.
• al hrabosky. madness never dies.

so how would you handle it? vote below. i'll be at the game this afternoon, cheerfully neglecting my responsibilities; a win would give 'em three series in a row and sweep away last night's frustration. temporarily, at least. . . .

i usually don’t write on wednesdays, but the red baron is traveling to a funeral today so i’m covering. he lost someone very close; my thoughts are with you, dude.

star of last night’s game goes to kyle mcclellan. he gets out of the 6th-inning jam throwing mostly breaking stuff ---- 8 sliders / curves in 12 pitches. then in the 7th, pitching with the bases empty against the rump of the order, he blows them away with 12 fastballs in 14 pitches. guy’s got some weapons. the cardinal bullpen now sports a league-leading 2.74 era and has allowed just 3 of 18 inherited runners to score. skip schumaker also merits a little mention --- couple of 2-out rbi hits plus a walk. cardinal leadoff men have a .403 on-base percentage so far, mainly thanks to schu (he’s led off 10 of the 14 games); his BB last night was his 7th in 50 plate appearances, or 1 walk fewer than he drew in 188 plate appearances last year. that’s a significant change in his game. his high obp last year was entirely a product of his high batting average, which in turn was mostly a product of (coughluckcough) random chance; small sample size plus high BABIP = fluke. he won’t hit .333 again this year, but if he can walk once every 10 plate appearances he won’t have to; a .275 average will do just fine. insert obligatory caveat here ---- it’s very early, we’re just sizing things up, blah blah blah. based on available evidence, the cardinal leadoff spot --- subject of much discussion and concern all spring --- has been one of the lineup’s strengths.

i can't get excited about kennedy. he's got 0 extra-base hits so far, and no signs of producing one any time soon; he had just 3 (all doubles) in 40 S.T. at-bats. miles doesn't have any XBH either, and izturis only has 2 (both doubles); it's worse than people feared. the middle-infield corps is hitting an aggregate .255 / .342 / .276. well, like we keep saying, it's early . . . . . .

last night’s game may be the answer to a trivia question: when’s the first time in big-league history that neither team batted the pitcher 9th? i asked sean forman of Baseball-Reference.com to do a quick run on his data; he writes back that it hasn’t happened since 1956, the limit of his archive of boxscores (compiled by the invaluable Retrosheet). there are still 50+ years unaccounted for, so it’s possible --- even likely --- that last night’s lineup oddity happened at least once before. here’s a list (sorted by team-season) of every game in which one team didn’t hit the pitcher 9th, going back to 1956. for some reason, there was a spate of pitcher-hitting-other-than-9th lineups in 1957; four different teams (1/4 of the big-league clubs at that time) used one at least once that year, and the kansas city athletics did it on a regular basis (56 games). it won’t surprise you to know that the la russa-led cardinals have batted the pitcher outside the 9 slot more times (146 games) than all other teams since 1956 combined (89 times).

here’s a little more trivia related to the manager: only once in his career has he opened the season with more than 10 wins in his first 14 games. that happened in 1990 in oakland, coming off his first world championship; he led the athletics to an 11-3 start and cruised to his 3d straight pennant. he’s started out 10-4 on three other occasions, including his first two seasons as a manager --- 1980-81 in chicago. the other 10-4 start came in 1992 in oakland. before this year, tony’s best starts in st louis were 9-5 marks in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2005.

and in the non-la-russa trivia category, i bet you didn’t know this: chris carpenter follows the cards via mlb gameday:

elsewhere on the injured-pitcher beat, mulder threw 5 innings last night for palm beach; according to chuck king (who does a bang-up job covering the FSL), he was topping out at 88 mph. am i the only one who’s dreading this guy’s return to action? he last pitched well in may 2006; i’m sure there are a few examples of guys who regained effectiveness after two full years of alternately getting knifed by surgeons and clubbed by hitters, but i can’t think of one at the moment. he seems so much a part of the team’s past --- and not the glorious part. he’s like one of those old kinda-sorta friends who calls you from time to time; he’s the last person you want to waste your time on, and you cringe every time you hear from him, but at some point you have to go out and have a beer with the guy because it’s too awkward to keep making excuses. that’s mark mulder to me --- don’t wanna hang w/ you anymore, but i know i’m gonna be stuck doing it.

maybe we can sign einar diaz to catch him, just for old time’s sake.

that’s all i got for now. game thread this p.m.

the cards are in first place by themselves for the first time since the final day of 2006. it’s only april 10 so it doesn’t mean much, but after going first-place-less for all of last season i thought this occasion worth noting. also worth noting is how easily the cardinals could be 9-0; their losses came by 1 and 2 runs, respectively, and both times the decisive run scored late in the game. of course, given how tight most of these games are (6 of the first 9 decided by 2 runs or less), with a little bad luck the team could very easily be 4-5 . . . . . again, it’s early. but not too early to enjoy seeing our crew at the top of the stack.

they still ain’t putting many runs on the board --- they’re currently 10th in the league in scoring, which is weird because they’re 1st in on-base percentage and 5th in slugging. dave smyth’s Base Runs formula says the cards ought to have scored 45 runs by now --- ie, 5 runs a game, a decent enough total. they’ve only scored 39 runs, or 6 under their projection --- 2/3 of a run per game. there are some easy explanations for the shortfall; they’ve hit only 6 homers so far this year, 12th in the nl (all but 3 cardinals are homerless), and they haven’t hit particularly well with men in scoring position (10th in the league in batting with RISP, 12th in slugging). again, it’s early and these are ridiculously small samples; way too soon to draw any firm conclusions. it’s possible --- possible --- that the cards’ run scoring will naturally rise to match the level of their component stats (ie, top 5 in the league). it’s also possible their component stats will drop to where their run total is (ie, below average). and the likelihood is that both will stabilize somewhere in between.

tony had a difficult tactical decision to make last night in the top of the 7th --- it didn’t generate any discussion on the game thread, so i thought i’d parse it out here. cards leading 5-3, 2 men on, 2 out, kyle mclellan at the dish, and a dwindling corps of relievers (all overworked) down in the pen with 9 outs still to go. do you pinch-hit or not? mclellan had just entered the game the previous half-inning and had thrown only 2 pitches; he was meant to pitch the 7th as well, but the cards put on so many baserunners in their half of the inning that mclellan’s spot unexpectedly came up. given how overworked the bullpen has been, tony must have been tempted to let mclellan bat, just to keep him in the game; kyle then would have stayed on to pitch the 7th against the bottom half of the houston order, and flores probably would have handled the 8th against bourn-pence-berkman. best-case scenario, franklin gets a much-needed night off. but la russa tried an opposite route to the same destination --- he sent up washington to hit for mclellan and tried to widen the lead to 3 or 4 runs right there; with a large enough margin, he could keep franklin (maybe izzy too) in his warmup jacket. it was a much riskier play, and it didn’t work; rico ended the inning, mclellan was gone, and tony ended up having to send franklin’s tired arm against the heart of the houston order for 4 outs. franklin breezed through the assignment, bless him, but the cards flirted with disaster there.

the bullpen’s workload issues are temporary --- thompson will be joining the pen soon (perhaps as soon as this weekend), wellemeyer shortly thereafter, and motte / perez are down at memphis if they’re needed. but in the short term, the overwork is a concern. izzy and franklin are tied for the league lead in appearances with 6 each (11 other guys are tied with them); i doubt either is available tonight. if they have to keep up this workload much longer, one of them is gonna get hurt. some people think franklin’s already hurt, on account of his heavy workload from last year.

my fearless predictions are up at the Daily Fix’s baseball contest. i didn’t distinguish myself last year in this contest, but i beat 3 or 4 of the other "experts" and thus avoided utter humiliation. i have the same modest goal for 2008 --- try not to embarrass myself too badly. i’ve got arizona and boston meeting in the world series . . . . . . i was the only guy to pick daric barton as my al rookie of the year.

and here’s an article that says ozzie smith had the worst season ever by a #2 hitter.

Well, Azru stole my opening joke for his post yesterday, so I got nothing. Oh well.

Hey, did you hear the one about the radio host who tricks people into coming on to his show? No? Here you go. Apparently, Kevin Slaten is no longer content with just haranguing Cardinal officials from afar. He just has to get them on, no matter how unethical or possibly illegal it may be.

Have I mentioned how much I dislike Mr. Slaten and his ilk? I believe I have, at some point in time. I've been quite critical of Dave Duncan at various times, for various reasons. However, this sort of thing is just ridiculous and uncalled for. I'm not sure who exactly is in charge over at KFNS, but they should be very proud of their station as it continues to circle the drain. Congratulations, KFNS, for lowering the bar for us all.

It appears that Uncle Rico is going to make the team. I'm really excited about this move. I think it's important to have a player on your team who can throw a football over a mountain. You just never know when a quarter mile toss could be the difference between victory and defeat. Seriously, though, it is very exciting to see a career minor leaguer like Rico finally get his shot at the big time. He probably won't be around too very long, as he's expected to go back down when Brendan Ryan gets healthy, but at 30 years old, Rico Washington will be wearing a Major League uniform on Opening Day. Congratulations, Rico. I wonder if this could just be the 2008 model of John Rodriguez? Similar skillset, although Rico is obviously an infielder, guy who gets an initial look because of some injuries, and his bat's just too damn good to send him back. I guess we'll see.

Opening Day for the Cardinals is Monday afternoon. There's not really a whole left to say about the roster; it appears to be set. No reason to rehash any more Anthony Reyes drama; it's just needless arguing at this point. The predictions are all in; we aren't going to be very good, at least by the numbers. So what to talk about?

I thought today we would just open it up and everybody toss in your ideas about the new season to be. What's everybody planning on doing for this most momentous of occasions? I feel fairly confident that at least some of you have made special arrangements to be around for the game; seeing as how we are all members of a community that have spent literally thousands of hours the past six months discussing baseball with absolutely no actual baseball happening.

Bukowski has a nice Fanpost up about his favourite opening day memories. Let's have some of those, too. Any particular season openers that stand out in your mind? Maybe you spent it with a loved one who isn't around any longer. Maybe you just go stranded on the side of the road trying to get into downtown St. Louis when the radiator in your past it's prime Mustang blew a hose. You know, hypothetically. That totally didn't happen to me in 1999. It's a really great post by Mr. Bukowski, by the way. Check it out.

Most of all, though, what are you hoping to see this season? Are you looking for a playoff appearance? Do you want to see the kids get a chance? Do you just hope the team doesn't embarass itself? Want to make a bold, certain to be wrong prediction? Here's the place to do it. And all you realists out there, none of that today. Let's all be optimistic today. It's the weekend, and baseball is on the way. Even I, as cynical and bitter a human being as you could ever hope to encounter, can't find it in my heart to believe anything but the best for this team right now. Seven pm, Monday night, we'll see if reality set in. For now, though, we're a title contending team.

Hey. Remember Spring Surprises? Well, the results are in, and the winners are:

On the position side, I think Joe Mather made the biggest leap forward in everyone's eyes. We all knew Rasmus was going to be good, and he didn't disappoint. Jose Martinez put up a nice spring, and the aforementioned Uncle Rico did some very nice things, with a little extra credit for making the team. (On a related note, Skippy has been surprising but not that surprising; he is Mr. March, after all) Barton has been a definite, pleasant surprise. Overall, though, Mather came in just hoping to make a bit of an impression, and ended up seriously in the conversation to take over Scott Spiezio's utility role with the team. Joe Mather, everybody!

Pitcher? Not even close. Kyle McClellan, St. Louis native, has thrown a limited number of innings above the single A level. He only has a year of pitching under his belt since Tommy John surgery. He's young and unheralded and should be grateful that his Springfield uniform fits so well. Kyle McClellan will be standing in Busch Stadium on Opening Day, watching as the Clydesdales he's tried to describe to Brian Barton parade around the stadium. Of all the longshots in camp, K-Mac, (nope, not letting it go) has to be the longest of all. Congratulations, Mr. McClellan.

More importantly than the players who surprised, though, is the burning question on everyone's mind: who called it? Who won our very own Spring competition?

AlberttheKing23 and cardschinmusic both had Mather. Excellent calls, gentlemen. Personally, I thought Mather would come in and struggle, more in line with his AAA line from last season. I wasn't a believer; count me among the converted.

Cariocacardinal and Hinkster both picked McClellan; again, kudos to the both of you. I picked Motte. I think I would do it again, as I think Jason has a nice future ahead of him. For the love of god, someone teach that kid to throw a splitter! As for McClellan, though, I'm curious: what did you guys see in him, exactly? I was aware of him coming in, but I never saw this kind of breakout coming. Heck of a call.

Our winner, and new supreme ruler, though, is...

Drum roll, please...

Hungry Jack. He had both Mather and McClellan. Congratulations, Hungry Jack. If I had thought this through a little better back in January, I would have laid in some sort of prize. However, seeing as how I failed to do so, you have only my eternal admiration. Fantastic calls, both. Huzzah!

One last thing. Shameless personal plug coming. The River Front Times, the independent alt journal here in St. Louis, is going to starting a Cards blog this season. I've been asked to be the main contributor. I'm incredibly excited to get this kind of an opportunity, and I really hope that you'll all come and visit me over there. The format is still a little up in the air at the moment, but we're taking the 'jump in head first' approach to the thing. Here's the link to the site:

riverfronttimes.com

It will be under the "STLog" area; there's also a link directly to that section on the sidebar here. Again, I'm all kinds of excited to be doing this; I really hope to see some of you around over there.

Alright, everybody. Here we go. Let's all enjoy this last bit of anticipation that we have. Two days until real baseball.

I can almost taste it.