Resolved: I will not mention Ryan Ludwick once in this post, except for that time. Or if, in the course of the day, he's—but I mustn't. 

Anyway, the baseball news today, for there is baseball news, is the the Rookie of the Year announcements. Lead times being what they are I can only say that Dewey beats Truman and that my personal picks are Geovany Soto and Evan Longoria, like everybody else's. But because we must take baseball news where we can get it, now, I thought I'd go a bit further and take a look at the Cardinals' 2008 rookies. In rough order of playing time:

Kyle McClellan - RP - 24

As Dave Barry used to say, are you like me? Are you really surprised that these are Kyle McClellan's numbers? Most of the year it seemed like the on-screen graphics had his name as Kyle-McClellan-ERA-2.75, and Dan'n'Al lauded him continuously as the Cardinals' most reliable bullpen piece, but I double checked and I didn't get these off of Ryan Franklin's B-R page. 

But of course something was wrong with McClellan in the second half. After his virtuoso June, in which he struck out sixteen and walked one, he was a mess. He walked more batters in his last 23 innings than he had in his first 52, and the problem was compounded by a minor BABIP spike—when he did get it in the strike zone, they were hitting it harder than they had before. McClellan's chief skill as a reliever is excellent command, and when he didn't have it he simply was not a good pitcher.

His second half does a few things. For one, it reminds us that he had only gotten as far as a half-season at AA before being anointed as the Seventh Inning Man in a Major League bullpen. When McClellan was pitching well he brought the control that allowed him to walk ten in 60 minor league innings to a Big League setting and proved that his stuff was good enough for him to be that fine with it. But he's only been in the bullpen two years; it might have been a little too much to have expected him to arrive fully formed and not give anything back.

The other thing it does is throw his role back up in the air. McClellan is now number two on my Mark Mulder I'm-not-expecting-anything-so-if... power rankings for this year, behind only Carpenter. Right now when I think about the 2009 team he doesn't factor in at all, even though I know he's there. The reason is that there's just too much uncertainty, not only about what he'll do but where he'll do it. 

When he was the Cardinals' bullpen rock circa June it seemed insane to think the early intimations of moving him into the rotation after a year on the Wainwright scholarship would bear any fruit. He was never the prospect Wainwright was in the rotation, and he only even made it onto the prospect map as a reliever, and even Wainwright seemed fated to end up in the bullpen for a while. 

But his late struggles alter the narrative a little. Now that he doesn't have a sterling set-up man season under his belt—now that it looks like a true apprenticeship season, and will on baseball cards from now until the end of time—the Cardinals' options seem a little more open. It's amazing what a bad second half will do to make your versatility seem more important.

Brian Barton - OF - 26

Say what you will about La Russa, but there is one thing he knows better than any living manager and that is how to parcel out just enough PT to all of his players. (Whether they deserve it or not, at times, which might be a problem.) I'm stunned to learn that Barton, who seemed so forgotten that by June that he was appearing in black and white on the back of the Busch Stadium souvenir cups, played in more than half of the team's games and got 150 at-bats. But all of La Russa's weird tricks—all those times early in the year where he'd start Barton and then pull him after six innings for a "defensive replacement", for instance—got BB what amounts to a full season as a fourth-and-a-half outfielder. 

And Barton did alright with it. At 26 he couldn't afford to turn into a project, and he didn't. He basically did enough of all the things he'd done as a prospect to be a fine reserve outfielder at the Major League level. He walked a lot, even though he wasn't hitting for any power, he ran well in the outfield even though his arm sometimes seemed like it was throwing for an imaginary cut-off cut-off man, and he ran like a man afire for some of those extra-base hits.

Whether he's a finished product or not he seems like he's ready, at 27 next year, to step into a fourth outfielder role on a regular basis. If anyone makes Skip Schumaker the most tradable of the Cardinals outfielders from our end, it's this guy.  

Joe Mather - OF - 25

Mighty Joe is an exciting player to watch. His vitals make him out to be about the same size as Chris Duncan, but when he finally got called up it seemed like a misleading comparison—he's shaped like a baseball player, or an American Gladiator, not a lumberjack. He looks like an athlete, running with no inefficient movement and leaping like a basketball player. His swing, between the size, the shin guard, and the long uppercut, gives one the visual impression of seeing Mark McGwire again, which is fun. 

Of course, none of those things make you a good baseball player. But last year he certainly played himself into the Great Cardinals Outfield Glut of 2009. I have no idea what the Cardinals are going to do with this guy, or what they should do with this guy, but I think he would impress if given the chance. It's not often you end up with a combination hulking slugger/great fielder, and given that base of skills it's not a stretch to see the kind of improvement in his hitting numbers that you would need to make him an above-average corner outfielder.

Chris Perez - RP - 22

Chris Perez came up in a way that didn't surprise anyone who'd followed him all the way up the ladder. He showed immediately that he could strike out Major League batters like it was no big deal; he looked like a future closer; he walked a ton of batters. For a controversial player it was not a controversial beginning. 

But I think he'd become a symbol more than a baseball player by the end of the year. La Russa and Duncan expressed their concern with his readiness as a closer and we jumped to his defense, tired of Ryan Franklin, tired of retreads, tires of the mantra of the proven closer. but when you look at the stats—as we so often ask La Russa and Duncan to do—they might have had a point. 

He walked nearly five batters per nine innings. And it wasn't a surprise, because he's always walked nearly five batters per nine innings. He had some excellent early outings, he looked outstanding in them, and we—I, at least—used our inner Scout's Instinct to declare him ready, even though he was the same wild young pitcher he was before the callup. 

I'm already on the record as pro-Perez for closer in 2009, if for no other reason than to keep payroll down in areas where easy replacements can not be dredged up out of other teams' minor league swamps, but when I look back at how I decided that the Braintrust was out of their mind in not handing Perez the position immediately I see that I was doing the same thing—relying on a hunch and my eyes—that kills me when it leads to, say, Marlon Anderson starting at DH in the World Series.

bernie argues that the cards should send duncan to memphis. reading between the lines, i surmise that the increasingly loud jeers are weighing on duncan (way to go Best Fans); it also seems clear that he’s either not 100 pct healthy or hasn’t shaken off the bad habits he got into while trying to play through last year’s injury. the cardinals have faced a lot of left-handed pitching this month, and i wondered if perhaps duncan’s current slump (he’s got a .637 ops in may) might be nothing more than overexposure to left-handed pitching. turns out that isn’t the case; per the splits section of david pinto’s Day by Day Database, duncan has only taken 6 plate appearances against lefties this month (with 1 hit). against right-handers, he’s hitting just .216 / .298 / .353 in 51 at-bats during may.

even so, it’s only 51 at-bats; in duncan’s 54 april at-bats against right-handed pitching, he hit .333 / .464 / .500. and taking the season as a whole, he’s got an .817 ops against right-handers. joe mather has had a hot month at memphis and he’s got some potential, but i wouldn’t bet on him to come right up and post an ops much (if any) better than .817.

i’ll grant that mather might be a better player than chris duncan right at this moment, because right at this moment duncan doesn’t look like an .800 ops hitter. he has taken some awful at-bats the last couple of weeks, chasing bad pitches and failing to make consistent contact (11 whiffs in his last 36 at-bats dating back to may 14). but i think a lot of people are overreacting to the slump. he came into the month with an .839 ops for the season and an ops of roughly .870 for his career; a few bad weeks and half the fan base is ready to dump the guy. (and they chide la russa for his impatience . . . .) duncan is a homegrown, cost-controlled, productive player in his 20s --- exactly the type of commodity this organization needs. bernie argues that a trip to memphis is in duncan’s (and the franchise’s) best interest --- the best way to preserve / restore his value. it’s worth noting that duncan is 0 for 14 coming off the bench this year; in his starts, he’s got a .282 / .389 / .436 line in 2008 --- an .826 ops. so it may be that the run of left-handed pitching, combined w/ the competition for at-bats w/ ludwick ankiel and schumaker, has depressed duncan’s line; maybe the lack of playing time has hurt him. and if that’s the case, maybe he would benefit from a month’s worth of regular abs in triple A, and come back with his swing and batting eye rehabilitated.

if that’s the rationale, then i can see the sense in sending duncan down. but as a short-term gambit, i don’t see any upside in exchanging duncan for mather. st louis outfielders already have the second-best aggregate ops in baseball, .868; the average nl outfield has an ops of .778. compare that production to st louis outfields of recent vintage:

the cardinals haven’t had an outfield this productive since albert pujols was an outfielder. not even the 2004-05 sanders-edmonds-walker outfields were as potent, in the aggregate, as the current crop. adding joe mather to the mix isn’t going to make this a higher-scoring team; the cardinals don’t need an upgrade in the outfield. they need an infielder who can add a little sock.

which brings us to troy glaus, who has escaped the abuse heaped on duncan despite a nearly identical batting line (.760 ops for glaus, vs .743 for duncan). he has stopped piling up the doubles --- only 3 this month, vs 12 in april; during may glaus has just 5 extra-base hits (vs 4 for duncan) and is slugging .390 on the season. glaus’s home/road split is no longer as glaring as it was; he’s hitting much better at home but much worse on the road. i don’t know what to make of it. glaus’s batted-ball patterns remain right in line with his career averages, and his babip is normal; if he’s doing anything differently from previous years, it’s not apparent. the only number that’s off is his strikeout rate, which is abnormally low (18 percent this year, vs 26 percent in his career); has he cut down on his swing? a while back i expressed confidence that glaus would eventually progress to the mean ; it hasn’t happened so far. i got no answers; i am open to your thoughts.

but i'm not open to the joe-mather-as-3b argument that occasionally surfaces. mather has played 3b just 24 times as a professional  --- all of those games were in A ball. his fielding percentage in those 24 games was .917. he last played 3b in 2005, and that was for 2 games. can't play the position, period.

other items:

• the astros apparently didn’t get the memo that you don’t mess around w/ breaking pitches against brian barton, you just blow fastballs past him. all 3 of barton’s hits the last couple of nights came against off-speed stuff --- the homer on tuesday and the single vs valverde on wednesday both came against sliders, and the single against wandy last night came against what looked like a changeup; 79 mph on the gun. i’m glad barton picked up a few hits; i was worried he was gonna get buried.
• don’t underestimate the potential significance of joel pineiro’s health problems. the cardinals are contending for only one reason --- consistent starting pitching. if the rotation starts to get patchworky, they’re likely to fall off the pace. any / all of pineiro, looper, and lohse are capable of going south in a hurry . . . . .
• but there may be help at triple A. mitch boggs threw a complete game yesterday to run his record to 5-1, 3.17. he has yielded just 3 homers in 65.1 innings and has a 2:1 gb/fb ratio. there’s also a guy down there named reyes with a 2.04 era . . . . as a team, memphis ranks 4th in the pcl with a 4.14 era. it’s a pitcher’s park, though . . . . .
• am i the only one who hates the 1st-inning intentional walk? the cards did it tuesday night, with an "unintentional" walk to lance berkman; the ’stros did it last night vs pujols. seems like you’re just begging to fall way behind when you hand out free baserunners in the first inning, and both teams did just that . . . .

Well, Azru stole my opening joke for his post yesterday, so I got nothing. Oh well.

Hey, did you hear the one about the radio host who tricks people into coming on to his show? No? Here you go. Apparently, Kevin Slaten is no longer content with just haranguing Cardinal officials from afar. He just has to get them on, no matter how unethical or possibly illegal it may be.

Have I mentioned how much I dislike Mr. Slaten and his ilk? I believe I have, at some point in time. I've been quite critical of Dave Duncan at various times, for various reasons. However, this sort of thing is just ridiculous and uncalled for. I'm not sure who exactly is in charge over at KFNS, but they should be very proud of their station as it continues to circle the drain. Congratulations, KFNS, for lowering the bar for us all.

It appears that Uncle Rico is going to make the team. I'm really excited about this move. I think it's important to have a player on your team who can throw a football over a mountain. You just never know when a quarter mile toss could be the difference between victory and defeat. Seriously, though, it is very exciting to see a career minor leaguer like Rico finally get his shot at the big time. He probably won't be around too very long, as he's expected to go back down when Brendan Ryan gets healthy, but at 30 years old, Rico Washington will be wearing a Major League uniform on Opening Day. Congratulations, Rico. I wonder if this could just be the 2008 model of John Rodriguez? Similar skillset, although Rico is obviously an infielder, guy who gets an initial look because of some injuries, and his bat's just too damn good to send him back. I guess we'll see.

Opening Day for the Cardinals is Monday afternoon. There's not really a whole left to say about the roster; it appears to be set. No reason to rehash any more Anthony Reyes drama; it's just needless arguing at this point. The predictions are all in; we aren't going to be very good, at least by the numbers. So what to talk about?

I thought today we would just open it up and everybody toss in your ideas about the new season to be. What's everybody planning on doing for this most momentous of occasions? I feel fairly confident that at least some of you have made special arrangements to be around for the game; seeing as how we are all members of a community that have spent literally thousands of hours the past six months discussing baseball with absolutely no actual baseball happening.

Bukowski has a nice Fanpost up about his favourite opening day memories. Let's have some of those, too. Any particular season openers that stand out in your mind? Maybe you spent it with a loved one who isn't around any longer. Maybe you just go stranded on the side of the road trying to get into downtown St. Louis when the radiator in your past it's prime Mustang blew a hose. You know, hypothetically. That totally didn't happen to me in 1999. It's a really great post by Mr. Bukowski, by the way. Check it out.

Most of all, though, what are you hoping to see this season? Are you looking for a playoff appearance? Do you want to see the kids get a chance? Do you just hope the team doesn't embarass itself? Want to make a bold, certain to be wrong prediction? Here's the place to do it. And all you realists out there, none of that today. Let's all be optimistic today. It's the weekend, and baseball is on the way. Even I, as cynical and bitter a human being as you could ever hope to encounter, can't find it in my heart to believe anything but the best for this team right now. Seven pm, Monday night, we'll see if reality set in. For now, though, we're a title contending team.

Hey. Remember Spring Surprises? Well, the results are in, and the winners are:

On the position side, I think Joe Mather made the biggest leap forward in everyone's eyes. We all knew Rasmus was going to be good, and he didn't disappoint. Jose Martinez put up a nice spring, and the aforementioned Uncle Rico did some very nice things, with a little extra credit for making the team. (On a related note, Skippy has been surprising but not that surprising; he is Mr. March, after all) Barton has been a definite, pleasant surprise. Overall, though, Mather came in just hoping to make a bit of an impression, and ended up seriously in the conversation to take over Scott Spiezio's utility role with the team. Joe Mather, everybody!

Pitcher? Not even close. Kyle McClellan, St. Louis native, has thrown a limited number of innings above the single A level. He only has a year of pitching under his belt since Tommy John surgery. He's young and unheralded and should be grateful that his Springfield uniform fits so well. Kyle McClellan will be standing in Busch Stadium on Opening Day, watching as the Clydesdales he's tried to describe to Brian Barton parade around the stadium. Of all the longshots in camp, K-Mac, (nope, not letting it go) has to be the longest of all. Congratulations, Mr. McClellan.

More importantly than the players who surprised, though, is the burning question on everyone's mind: who called it? Who won our very own Spring competition?

AlberttheKing23 and cardschinmusic both had Mather. Excellent calls, gentlemen. Personally, I thought Mather would come in and struggle, more in line with his AAA line from last season. I wasn't a believer; count me among the converted.

Cariocacardinal and Hinkster both picked McClellan; again, kudos to the both of you. I picked Motte. I think I would do it again, as I think Jason has a nice future ahead of him. For the love of god, someone teach that kid to throw a splitter! As for McClellan, though, I'm curious: what did you guys see in him, exactly? I was aware of him coming in, but I never saw this kind of breakout coming. Heck of a call.

Our winner, and new supreme ruler, though, is...

Drum roll, please...

Hungry Jack. He had both Mather and McClellan. Congratulations, Hungry Jack. If I had thought this through a little better back in January, I would have laid in some sort of prize. However, seeing as how I failed to do so, you have only my eternal admiration. Fantastic calls, both. Huzzah!

One last thing. Shameless personal plug coming. The River Front Times, the independent alt journal here in St. Louis, is going to starting a Cards blog this season. I've been asked to be the main contributor. I'm incredibly excited to get this kind of an opportunity, and I really hope that you'll all come and visit me over there. The format is still a little up in the air at the moment, but we're taking the 'jump in head first' approach to the thing. Here's the link to the site:

riverfronttimes.com

It will be under the "STLog" area; there's also a link directly to that section on the sidebar here. Again, I'm all kinds of excited to be doing this; I really hope to see some of you around over there.

Alright, everybody. Here we go. Let's all enjoy this last bit of anticipation that we have. Two days until real baseball.

I can almost taste it.