Albert Pujols is the unanimous NL MVP
by DanUpBaby on Nov 24, 2009 3:02 PM EST
149 comments
Obviously the BBWAA checked SBN's crib notes; Albert Pujols wins unanimously, Hanley places second, and—well, Ryan Howard somehow continues to be grossly overrated by people who watch him and Chase Utley every day.
I don't know how to explain this phenomenon; Chase Utley is among the smoothest-looking, most complete players in baseball, able to do just about anything, from home run hitting to Inside Baseball-y grit work, better than everybody else at his position. Ryan Howard is great in "the second halves of seasons", but as simple as it seems to me maybe this is worth repeating: this means he is not great in the first halves of seasons. His team's games count the same either way. Ryan Howard was probably one of the ten best hitters in the NL this year; he's a slow first baseman. This is a difficult combination to turn into the third best player in baseball.
But that's enough about Ryan Howard, the annual MVP bogeyman, for this year—Albert Pujols should have won, and he did, and for once every BBWAA writer tasked with the supremely difficult task of figuring that out did so. Viva El Hombre!
149 comments | 0 recs |
The Greatest Cardinals of Each Time: The American Association
by DanUpBaby on Nov 24, 2009 6:00 AM EST
280 comments
It is a lucky thing for Cardinals writers that Stan Musial's birthday falls in the offseason; in July it would be a blip on the radar while complaining about relief pitching remained in fashion, but in November there is simply nothing else to talk about. As The Man gets older and his first plausible heir nears 30 it makes sense to begin wondering where each will fall on the list of all-time greatest Cardinals, even if the resulting P-D article was less than satisfying in some ways.
But it's simply too soon; Albert Pujols has played nine seasons, while Musial went an astonishing sixteen before his skills finally dropped below a Hall of Fame level. Even in a comparison of their careers to this point there's a lot to confound; Musial began his career during World War II, amid a serious drop in competition, which makes it seem like he arrived at 21 fully formed instead of maturing into someone who put up the same stats against better players at 25.
It's hard to compare players across eras; it's easier in baseball, which has stayed comparatively stable since the live ball era, when the jump shot was a gleam in Hank Luisetti's eye and the forward pass was 20 years old, but even then we must deal with integration, with expansion, with timeline adjustment (I'm not for it, for what it's worth) and the changing utilization of pitchers. When Albert Pujols finally retires—at fifty, having won, as the saying goes, fifteen straight MVP awards and then six straight Albert Pujols awards—it will be time to wade into the murk that comes with adjusting for World War II and the really-live-ball era into which Bobby Bonilla allowed Albert Pujols. Until then we can only say that Albert Pujols is the best Cardinal of this era, and Stan Musial the best of his own. Until then the interesting question is this: Who's the best Cardinal of each time?
280 comments | 0 recs |
American League MVP Watch
by DanUpBaby on Nov 23, 2009 4:33 AM EST
618 comments
A full post later today, on the occasion of Stan Musial's just-passed 89th birthday, but today is the official start of round two in this offseason's sportswriter-narrative boxing-match between Traditional Statistics (apparently wins and losses, exclusively) and the Newfangled (among them FIP, tRA, WAR, strikeouts, innings pitched, batting average et al); Joe Mauer, author of what is arguably the second-best hitting season in tools-of-ignorance history, and Derek Jeter, author of perhaps the second-best season in Derek Jeter history, are squaring off for the AL MVP.
As sea-changes go the offseason of 2009 has seemed a little forced—Zack Greinke was both astonishingly good and a great story, a combination that has won pitching plaudits since before Cy Young was born, and Tim Lincecum was a repeat champion facing off against two pitchers on the same team who led the league in strikeouts and pitched thirty innings more than his nearest competitor. This will be no different; Joe Mauer hit .365, and would have no real competition, in 1929 or 2009, if the Hall of Fame shortstop on his tail were playing for the New Jersey Yankees.
Certainly 2009 is more welcoming to sabermetrics than 1999 was, but this is a slow and strange process, not an inexorable march toward the terrifying future. Ten years ago the sabermetrically averse were castigating internet fandom for championing the likes of such slugs as Matt Stairs and Jack Cust; today one columnist is worried that seamheads are paying too much attention to defense. 2019 will probably look a lot different when we're sitting in it.
618 comments | 0 recs
The Cy Young stats
by vivaelpujols on Nov 22, 2009 6:00 AM EST
619 comments
So the NL Cy Young award recipient was announced the other day, and surprisingly, it didn't go to the guy with the most wins, or the best ERA for that matter. Instead, it went to Tim Lincecum, who lead the league in FanGraphs WAR by a pretty big margin.
Naturally, given the two candidates that he narrowly beat, this sparked a lot of debate about whether or not FanGraphs' WAR was the best way to go. From what I gathered, a lot of people thought that timing should be taken into account, and in the case of Carpenter, "pitching to your defense". There were even some rogue mentions of wins and pitching to the score.
Unfortunately, I don't know the right stat to figure out the Cy Young award winner. That's because each person has a different interpretation of what it means to be the Cy Young. What I can do is lay out all of the major stats so that you can make the most informed decision about how you want the Cy Young to be decided.
619 comments | 10 recs
the bullpen
by tom s. on Nov 21, 2009 9:00 AM EST
213 comments
before i get into discussion, i would like to say that I do not believe that the bullpen is the biggest issue for the cards in 2010. last season, there was much kvetching about the failure of the GM to get a closer. the cards could do much better to work on improving their defense, their offense, or replacing joel pineiro's contribution to the rotation. writing in the abstract here, before i really formulate any conclusions, i'd have to say i care less about our bullpen than most areas of the club. still, i think it's worth looking at what we have.
here is a table showing the bill james projections for the cards' bullpen in 2010.
|
Name |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
FIP |
|
66.0 |
7.09 |
3.68 |
1.93 |
3.82 |
|
|
56.0 |
10.93 |
3.86 |
2.83 |
3.45 |
|
|
61.0 |
4.87 |
2.80 |
1.74 |
4.75 |
|
|
46.0 |
7.43 |
4.30 |
1.73 |
3.86 |
|
|
54.0 |
6.33 |
3.33 |
1.90 |
4.82 |
|
|
46.0 |
8.80 |
3.52 |
2.50 |
3.99 |
|
|
75.0 |
6.00 |
4.32 |
1.39 |
4.78 |
*mitch boggs was predicted to start 10 games and to make 12 appearances from the bullpen.
I was frankly surprised by these projections - many of them were not nearly as bad as i had thought -- mcclellan, motte -- and some were far worse. miller had an excellent 2009, but james sees him coming back to earth. franklin is projected to fall off a cliff and have the cliff fall down on him after he lands.
more surprising, though, is that this looks to be a tolerable bullpen performance overall. in 2009, the team average FIP was 4.30. here, only franklin, hawksworth, and boggs are projected to turn in a less impressive performance.
something which shouldn't be surprising to anybody is that the whole bullpen has an appalling tendency towards walks; franklin projects the only real impressive bb rate, one totally subsumed by the 4.87 k/9 right next to it. control should be the gospel for mason to preach this spring.
213 comments | 0 recs
Joe Jackson talks briefly to a newsboy about yesterday's news
by DanUpBaby on Nov 20, 2009 5:52 AM EST
749 comments
It's the most famous young face in the history of baseball—it's the symbol of purity corrupted, of the sport's loss of innocence in the face of organized crime and a gambling scandal that nearly ended baseball as young boys everywhere knew it.
Outside the courthouse there's a nervous crowd milling around, waiting for news. Suddenly there's a burst of activity and "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, surrounded by well-wishers, ex-fans, photographers, reporters, and baseball players, pushes through the double doors and takes the steps with his easy grace. The crowd is shocked into silence—the reporters' questions are so much rhubarb—but one brave, stoic newsboy, carrying his accusing newspapers guiltily, steps into the baseball great's path and begs, his voice quivering with the weight of posterity on its back: "Say it ain't so, Joe! Say it ain't so!"
Having gotten his lede, the lucky reporter stalks back to the newsroom. But after his famous silence the fallen hero gives the newsboy a measured look and says, "Well, it depends on what you mean. Certainly I was mixed up with bad people who were doing bad things. But in the end either the facts or the sheer gravitas of my story will vindicate me, and that's all I can really ask for."
The baby-faced newsboy sniffles a little. No more than ten or eleven, by the looks of it, he's already an old hand at the business. "I—I'm glad to hear that, Joe, I really am, but that's not what I'm askin' about. Didn't you see the paper? Haven't you been paying attention? I got signed by the Royals!"
749 comments | 0 recs |
Rule 5: You do talk about the Rule 5 draft
by DanUpBaby on Nov 19, 2009 6:00 AM EST
951 comments
Nothing exemplifies the Hot Stove season quite like worrying about the Rule 5 draft. Most of the players don't stick it out all year; most of the ones that do are eventually traded for Ronnie Belliard or Blaine Boyer; and most of the time it would be completely absurd to spend time thinking about this. Fangraphs won't return my calls, but according to my new WARP/seconds-in-your-limited-lifespan converter most of these guys peak around fifteen, twenty seconds. (Brian Barton, simply because his nickname was briefly "Enunciate It", broke the curve at forty-five.)
But it is November, and I already did a VEB Theater, and though it kills me to say it there is no baseball going on at Busch Stadium. So let us take solace in the dim light of this good news: the Cardinals will probably not lose a useful player to the Rule 5 draft this year. In approximate order of near-term usefulness:
ALLEN CRAIG
WHY WE SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HIM: He doesn't really have a position; he's a minor league slugger who played in the PCL, so his numbers are vaguely suspicious; he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough.
WHY WE WILL ANYWAY: He's looking more likely every day to spend significant time in left field in 2010, and there's a non-zero chance that he has a hot month while David Freese burns and Tony La Russa is suddenly convinced he can play third. He's never crushed a league, but he's also been extremely consistent level to level—in his three full seasons he's always hit .300, always hit 20 home runs, and always managed an OBP over .365. If the Cardinals find a left-handed outfielder they're comfortable with he is the ideal short side of a platoon.
951 comments | 0 recs |
November Rain
by the red baron on Nov 18, 2009 10:42 AM EST
790 comments
I'm sitting in my living room staring out on a grey and very nasty November morning. Ordinarily, I welcome such inclement weather; I usually love the rain and the clouds and the cold whistling wind. However, I have an awful day ahead of me, including a trip to traffic court in Webster Groves this evening, and I just can't bring myself to work up any sort of real cheer.
This past weekend I went to see a movie at the St. Louis Film Festival with a friend of mine named Alex. (By the way, huge plug for the Festival; if you've never been, go and buy a ticket to something. Doesn't matter what. Just go and see something you wouldn't ordinarily see. I promise it will be a good experience.) Alex is a girl, and a remarkably pretty one at that. She's also most likely reading this, as she thinks the things I write are funny (even when they aren't meant to be), which makes what I'm about to dwell on potentially uncomfortable, but I don't particularly care.
790 comments | 18 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.25.2009 at 12:19 AM EST)
SBNation.com Recent Stories
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- D12: Revisiting the Twins decision of Mauer over Prior (again)
- After locking up of AL MVP, it's time for Twins to lock up Mauer
- November means R&R for Raiders fan CC Sabathia and others
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Most Commented
Rule 5: You do talk about the Rule 5 draft
by DanUpBaby 5 days ago
951 comments | 0 recs
November Rain
by the red baron 6 days ago
790 comments | 18 recs
Joe Jackson talks briefly to a newsboy about yesterday's news
by DanUpBaby 4 days ago
749 comments | 0 recs
The Cy Young stats
by vivaelpujols 2 days ago
619 comments | 10 recs
American League MVP Watch
by DanUpBaby 1 day ago
618 comments | 0 recs