Nothing I have found on SBNation has been anywhere as frustrating as making tables for fanposts. It simply just didn't work for me no matter what I tried. After a lot of trial, practice, and googling I will share my knowledge with you all.

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The CHONE projection system, created by Sean Smith of THT, FanGraphs and Anaheim Angels all the Way, we're recently released to the public.  They are generally considered the best system out there, and has been the most accurate since 2005 in terms of projection team performance. 

You can go to his website Baseball Projection, to view the projections for each player (it's organized by team):

http://www.baseballprojection.com/

Here is the link for the Cardinals projections.  The key number to look at is R/150, which is how many runs above average each player projects to be per 150 games. 

Pujols looks amazing of course, and Ludwick's is not bad either.  Allen Craig actually projects to be the third best hitter, but he's right about average along with Rasmus, Freese, Mather, Skip and Yadi. 

You can also view a list of all of the free agents here.  Matt Holliday projects to be the best hitter, at +27 runs, which isn't surprising, with Jason Bay right behind him.  Mike Cameron projects to be surprisingly low, at -4 runs.  Johnny Damon actually projects pretty well though.  

This will be the first official Hot Stove Post for 2010, and at the risk of sounding authoritative, it would nice if you guys put all your offseason thoughts in this post, so we don't have like 10 different FanPosts about the same thing.  I will update this thread once the pitcher and defensive projections are released.

H/T, the fantastic Tommy Bennent.

I just want to start by saying that I think Bryan Burwell had it right in his article yesterday about the Holliday situation. DeWitt knew this was coming. He knew that Holliday was a Boras client and would test the market. If DeWitt was not willing to open up DeWallet and doll out the dollars to keep Holliday in red then he shouldn't have approved the trade. We all know that Pujols needs to be extended. We all know that we have other holes to fill. And we know that Holliday is going to make a boat load of money. But so did DeWitt. So, if he is/was unwilling to raise payroll by adding Holliday while accommodating our other needs he should not have approved the trade in the first place.

Furthermore, we were the third highest in the NL in attendance at 3.34 million and are in the top third in revenues in MLB. In other words, there is room to expand payroll. But isn't that what DeWitt has been saying all along? Has he not promised for the last 4-5 off-seasons that there is flexibility to add payroll past the 100 million dollar mark if an elite player comes along worth the investment? Well Matt Holliday is that player and it is time for DeWitt to put up or shut up.

That being said, I still feel fairly optimistic about the chances of re-signing Holliday despite the fact that the media has all but counted us out. However, if DeWitt proves to be the frugal SOB that we all think he is I think there are some interesting options that have not been discussed in these neck of the woods quite yet.

My first thought is this: Holliday is a type A free agent. This was nearly a forgone conclusion when we traded for him earlier this year. So, if we don't re-sign Holliday it transforms the trade from Holliday for Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson to Holliday, 1st round pick for Wallace, Mortenson, and Peterson. I think this is an important distinction since the A's certainly would not have re-signed Holliday had they not traded him and would have cashed in on those extra draft picks. In other words, Holliday being a type A free agent is another valuable commodity. Think of it this way: we either traded the farm for Matt Holliday long term or we traded the farm for three months of Holliday and Colby Rasmus. Now, I know no first round pick is a guarantee and it is less likely that they will turn out like Colby has but the thought is (at least) somewhat comforting.

Now, what happens if we lose Holliday? Besides the sky falling I mean. Sure we could go after Bay, but from what I have been reading it sounds more like we would try to make smaller upgrades at multiple positions. One obvious place to add some power and upgrade would be second base. I know Skip made some progress defensively at 2nd last year, but he was still a below average defender. His outfield defense is average to above average making him more valuable in the OF. So, if the Card elected to move Skip to LF there are several ways we could improve at 2nd while potentially adding a bit more pop to the lineup.

1. Brandon Phillips - I know this is unlikely since it would require an in-division trade but MLBTradeRumors is reporting that the Reds are looking to shed payroll and Phillips is one of the main candidates to go. Getting Phillips would presumably cost less in terms of prospects if we are willing to take on his salary. He has been one of the best power hitting second basemen in the NL the last several years (He went for .276/.329/.447 last year and has averaged 22 HRs over the last four years) and according to FanGraphs had a WAR of 3.2 last year.That made him worth 14.6 million last year at an actual salary of a little more than 5 million. Pretty good deal. (For comparison sake, Skippy had a WAR of 1.2 last year).

2. Chone Figgins - Sure he doesn't have the pop we are looking for but he has been a really good player. Problem is, he is also a type A free agent and is getting up there in years (he is now 31). But Figgins has good versatility, mad on base skills and had a WAR of over 6 last year. Thou, at 31 I find it hard to believe that Figgins will be able to repeat his 2009 season. Correct me if I am wrong but it seems like scrappy slap hitters like Figgins decline rapidly. David Eckstein anyone?

3. Dan Uggla - Uggla is pretty much Brandon Phillips with worse defense and speed. He getson base and slugs better than Phillips (.243/.354/.459) but his WAR this year was just behind Phillips at 2.9 (defense being the main reason). He hasn't hit less than 27 HRs in any season and has had an OPS over .800 for his career. I know that Uggla's fielding is terrible, but according to FanGraphs he was better than Skip last year (-10 to -12) and would actually be a defensive upgrade at 2nd. Uggla is on the block and could be a nice fit in the lineup to help build some "depth protection" for Pujols.

4. Orlando Hudson - It was rumored that we were looking at O-Dawg last off-season and would seem to still be a decent fit. Hudson doesn't have the pop of a Uggla or Phillips but he is still a good hitter (.281/357/.417). I know he got replaced by Ronnie Belliard at the end of the season in LA but Hudson is still a starting 2nd basemen in this league with a slick glove.

5. Placido Polanco - this is sort of a homer pick but I would love to see Polanco back in Saint Louis. He is probably on the downside of his career but he can play 2nd and 3rd and and would a solid utility type. He had a decent season last year but I'm not sure that he is a starter anymore. Regardless, Polanco would be a big upgrade to the bench and has the added benefit of being one of Pujols' best friends (hey, whatever it takes right?).

Anyway, those are my thoughts for now. I didn't really have the time to look into potential SP, RP, or 3rd upgrades so if you have any other ideas please feel free to discuss.

 This was originally mean to be an open forum for people to state their opinions on some potential FA's that haven't gotten a lot of consideration from what I've seen. 

What's the aversion to Jermaine Dye being a short-term, incentive-laden option should the primary options (Holliday, Bay) not pan out?  Wasn't he generally pretty productive this year in a similar manner to Ludwick?  I don't think he'd be any worse as our LF than Derosa from a production standpoint. 

Also, let me know what you guys think about these players as potential fits for this team?

Josh Willingham- seems to me like an ideal fit with decent plate discipline and good power.  I think of a higher end projection of what Allen Craig might one day be with Willingham. 

Xavier Nady-  Always seemed to do a number on the Cards.  Plenty of pop when healthy.

Jermaine Dye- maybe on an incentive-laden deal could be useful on the lower end of the spectrum

Austin Kearns- would probably rather see Craig than Kearns.

Mike Cameron- don't think we'll be able to get him to play LF, but you never know.

Jose Contreras- he was throwing gas when the Cards saw him last year.  He's kind of a head case, but to me he's a better option for a potential starter/setup guy than Smoltz

Kiko Calero- his numbers from last year were very encouraging.  I had lost tabs on him out of spite for the Muldie trade.  He's an intriguing option for a dependable strikeout setup guy.

What do you guys think??

I'm a disenchanted Toronto Blue Jays Fan, looking for a new team.  Ownership decisions and a general aimlessness in the direction of the team has caused me to consider abandoning the Jays after 25 years of cheering for them.

My search has narrowed to the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and your St. Louis Cardinals.

I am looking for a MLB team that has ownership committed to winning, a group of players worth cheering for, and a reasonable shot at competing for the playoffs sometime in the next 10 years.

Convince me (with defensible reasons) why I should join you.  Go!

To preface my remarks, I am a Rockies Fan that used to be a Card fan.  Grew up following the Cards of the 60s,70s,80s and moved to Denver in the lkate 80's and started rooting for the Rocks upon their inception.  I root for the Cards in a secondary fashion.  As a Rockies fan I was troubled by the loot St. Louis gave to get him last summer.  As a Rocks fan I was aware of the Holliday fielding defiencies, and inability to hit middle-in pitches consistently.  The bigger issue was his hiring of Scott Boras in 2006.  A clear sign he intended to test the market in 2009.  Rocks gave him a raise to buy out his remaining arbitration years at a premium following 2007.  But it was obvious he was going to market.  They dealt him and got some pretty good MLB ready guys who helped in 2009.  CarGo will likely surpass Holliday as he is a legit 5 tool kid poised for stardom.  You may want to nab him for your fantasy leagues next year. The A's got Holliday basically to try to turn him for some good talent.  They figured someone would be ready to bite in mid season.  Billy Beane is many things and among them an opportunist.  The Cards unloaded some significant jack for a three month player.  The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and a few other teams can afford to do this, the Cards cannot.  Now you are stuck looking for the same thing you were three months ago  (Albert protection with production).  Holliday turned down 4 years and 80M from the Rocks.  Do you think he will settle for less?  Not under Boras' watch.  He wants a shot at the Red Sox and the Yanks figuring that each may have LF holes where Holliday will fit the bill.  I read in the STL Today site where many Card fans want to focus on rebuilding from within.  Given a mid market status, it basically the only way you can go.  I used to pound Dan O'Dowd for his moves where they all seemed like salary dumps (see 2000-2005).  A couple of years ago (2006) I began to see his logic and he has made the Rocks into an NL version of the Twins.  As a kid growing up the Cardinals always focused their energies on their player development with a few deals splashed in for good measure.  I think they have sort of lost that feeling but it is never too late to get it back.  Having two large salaries can hamstring you for years to come.  Look at Houston, the Cubs, etc.  My only sadness is the three prospects that got away for the failed experiement.  A few years ago the Rockies management had a press conference where they profoundly declared that "we know what we are"  we will manage our team with that in mind.  This offseason they will deal Brad Hawpe, non-tender Garrett Atkins, let Torrealba go, resign some bullpen help and be in a better position to contend in 2010.  I am thinking the Cards need to do some of their own internal mirror obeservation.  You can no longer afford to dump prospects on short term fliers.

It's entitled "Sixty Feet, Six Inches," written with Reggie Jackson (ghost written by Lonnie Wheeler, who I believe wrote Gibby's last book).  I've viewed a couple of the videos on Amazon.com, and, as always, love listening to my favorite player and Cardinal of all time.  I can pass on Mr. October, although he's knowledgable about the game.  However, I haven't ordered the book yet - may ask for it for Christmas present.  Anybody read it so far?  Thoughts or critiques?

In a recent post by chuckb, a certain (and my favorite) facet of Yadier Molina's game sparked some conversation and much love. Of course, I am talking about Yadi's infamous pick-off plays. So I decided to do a little digging on MLB.com to find the videos. I wasn't expecting to find all of them, but in the end was still rather disappointed in their collection. Anyway, I give you (*drumroll) the only 14 13 pickoffs of Yadi's that I can find. Enjoy.

• 6/28/05 vs. Cincinnati Reds - I would like to apologize for MLB.com. They really suck.

• 5/2/06 vs. Cincinnati Reds

• 5/8/06 vs. Colorado Rockies

• 5/27/06 vs. San Diego Padres - My favorite, rivaled only by the Theriot PO.

• 7/4/06 vs. Atlanta Braves - Not really a pick-off, but we'll call it a POVTE (Picked Off Vicariously Through Eckstein).

• 7/29/06 vs. Chicago Cubs - The real reason Zambrano punched him.

• 10/7/06 vs. San Diego Padres - We should have known "it was meant to be" as soon as he pulled this off with runners on 1st and 3rd.

According to MLB.com there was a black hole for Molina, in terms of pick-offs, from October '06 to July '08. I really hate MLB.com.

• 7/23/08 vs. Milwaukee Brewers

• 4/27/09 vs. Atlanta Braves

• 6/3/09 vs. Cincinnati Reds

• 7/11/09 vs. Chicago Cubs - undoubtedly, in my mind, the most impressive of them all.

• 7/17/09 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - scoot along 40 seconds into the video to get to Yadi introducing a 4th true outcome to Mark Reynolds.

• 8/15/09 vs San Diego Padres - rediculous. With an "e".

• 10/1/09 vs. Cincinnati Reds

For all those interested, this is from Yadi's B-R page:

Yadi      PO

'04         1

'05         9

'06         8

'07         2

'08         7

'09         8

I'm currently researching something I've been wondering for a while, and I've came across a question that I can't readily find an answer to.

When reading about the Rule 5 draft it states

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's forty man roster and:

- were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years; or

- were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years.

Now I fully get what that says, I just don't get how it's calculated. Service time is easy, and well covered - this.. I'm not finding much.

For example:

If a player is drafted and signs quick and then goes and plays short season ball (or A, AA). Is his "years been in the organization" starting the day he signed? What about the draft picks that don't start until the next year? Or the ones that pitch a couple of games (IIRC, like Lynn) and get shut down for the season.

I guess I'm just trying to see what exactly constitutes a year in MLB eyes. Service time is very precise on how it's calculated, but I'm not sure *when* teams are required to use the 40 man. If I can define what they mean by "years", it should be easier to find out, but the CBA doesn't have anything that I can see.

Any idea?