welcome back, walter jocketty. the guys at SB Nation brother site Red Reporter asked my opinion of their team’s new gm over the weekend, and i gave ‘em some thoughts; read all about it.

and au revoir, matt morris. he’s the second not-that-long-ago mainstay of the stl rotation to get released this month, following woody williams. seems like they’ve been gone ages, doesn’t it? but morris has been out of cardinal red for just over two seasons (2006-07, plus a month of 08), woody williams just over three (2005-07); they started games 1 and 2 of the 2004 world series (and of that year’s nlcs / nlds, for that matter). kind of arresting how quickly it can all go south for a pitcher.

this is probably not the time to point out that morris is the last cardinal pitcher to throw 120 pitches in an april game --- or was, until wainwright did it the other day. morris achieved the feat against the astros too, on april 6 2002 --- burned through 125 deliveries in only 6 innings, which is even harder on the arm than wainwright’s 9-inning effort on saturday. during his time in st louis, la russa has asked only two other pitchers to throw 120 or more pitches in an april game: garrett stephenson (april 22, 2000) and alan benes (april 30, 1997).

if we lower the pitch-count threshold to 115 pitches, we find wainwright and morris crossing paths again. matty mo was the last st louis pitcher --- until wainwright, this month --- to toss 115 or more darts twice in the same april. matty did that two aprils in a row, in 2002 and 2003; the only other pitcher who’s ever done it under la russa is alan benes, in both 1996 and 1997. . . . .

okay okay (you ask), so morris stephenson and benes all had short careers --- what does that prove? and i answer that it doesn’t prove anything, but it’s still a pattern that concerns me (as it does houstoncardinal, who wrote about this yesterday). after wainwright’s outing, jeff passan pointed out at Yahoo sports that while opinions remain sharply divided about the correlation between high pitch counts and injuries, the fact is that pitch counts are being watched much more closely; it’s very rare for any pitcher to throw 125 pitches in a game anymore, let alone in an april game. passan notes that only 14 starts lasted 125 or more pitches in 2007, and only 26 went that long the year before that; only 2 of those starts came in april (by schilling in 2006 and barry zito last year).

in that article, la russa blithely waves off the pitch-count issue (just more of that stat-geek crap) and cites subjective observation as the only fatigue meter that matters: "You watch and see a guy all game long. When he starts to change, it means most times he’s losing stuff, getting tired, losing concentration." wainwright, says tony, has the ability to "make pitches when he has to," and that’s true --- in both of his long starts this month adam got into trouble as his pitch counts mounted but made the pitches he needed to and got out of the jams; the cards won both games. he’s got guts, he’s got willpower; we can all see that and admire it. but if those qualities encourage la russa to make wainwright play the hero every second or third start, it is likely to catch up to the pitcher and the team --- and sooner than we might like. in his last 16 starts (going back to last august 5), wainwright has thrown 115 or more pitches 5 times; that projects out to 10 times over a 32-start season. is that a lot? only 3 pitchers have done it during tony's sojourn in st louis.

using the amazing Baseball-Reference Play Index, i looked up all starts by st louis pitchers in the la russa era that lasted 115 or more pitches; here’s the list. and below is a table listing the pitcher-seasons (st louis only, la russa era) with the highest number of outings that lasted 115 pitches or more. the DL column lists the pitcher’s next trip to the disabled list after (or during) the season in question:

a sobering list. again, this doesn’t prove anything --- it’s not a scientifically rigorous study --- but experience can be a great teacher. if i were a big-league manager, and every single pitcher i rode too hard ended up getting hurt within a year and was out of baseball within 5 years, i might learn something from that experience. osborne, alan benes, and stottlemyre were never useful big-league players again after carrying their heavy workloads; they, and all the other pitchers on this list, retired before the age of 35. ok, i’m lying --- stottlemyre attempted a comeback at age 37, which lasted 21 innings (0-2 record, 7.52 era); and i’ll admit that we don’t know how long kile would have lasted in the big leagues, but he did need shoulder surgery after the 2001 season. . . . insofar as the cardinals have wainwright under club control for 5 seasons after this one (through his age-31 season) and are on the hook for guaranteed money for 3 seasons after this one, maybe tony ought to at least consider the stat-geek crap. or at least, he should do that if he wants wainwright's career to last longer than matt morris's did.

since darryl kile’s name keeps coming up, i’ll add that i thought of him when word of morris’s release came down. kile mentored morris, and no cardinal was wounded more deeply than matty when darryl died. i sensed a trace of kile’s influence --- his maturity, his humility --- in matty’s statement after being released: "It was a great segment of my life. I really can't wait to move on and be with my family. It's a sad day, but it's also a joyful day. ... I'm proud of my career."

we’re proud of ya too, matty mo. thanks for the thrills, and much success to you in all things in the future.

 
                                                       
                                             Roy Oswalt          Adam Wainwright

                                               2-3, 6.00                    2-1, 2.75

Okay, everybody.  Gather round, gather round, now.  Don't be shy.

Show of hands: who didn't see that coming? 

A friend of mine scored last minute tickets to the game from his father, a season ticket holder, who didn't want to go and brave the elements.  And so I found myself at the stadium last night, as Friday turned into Saturday, watching as the Cardinals let yet another one get away.  Not a single person in that stadium, all fifty or so of us left, I think, was at all surprised by the ending.  You could feel it coming, as the Cardinals let the Astros continue to hang around, never scoring the big blow to put the game away, until the Houston bats finally found a way to break through.  Chacon threw 55 pitches, I believe, through the first two innings.  Imagine my surprise, then, when I looked up at the end of the sixth and saw him somehow, someway, still on the mound, and not yet at a hundred.

This is beginning to be one of the more confounding teams I can recall, at least in certain ways.  They continue to put absurd numbers of baserunners on; they continue to strand pretty much every one of them.  Eleven more left on base last night, with the bases left loaded twice early in the game.  I have to wonder a bit if Troy Glaus's eyes were bothering him during his at bats, or if he simply heard the smattering of boos after his second K with the sacks jammed and left the game before he broke baseball's most sacred rule, the one about no crying.  I feel bad for Glaus; he's been very good lately, yet he doesn't seem to have managed to build up any sort of good will cache.  The natives are restless, and a lot of the ire seems to be directed toward Santa.  Not saying it's right, just reporting the mood of the crowd.

Of course, with a two hour rain delay before the game, I doubt I need to tell you what we did to pass the time.  Luckily, I had brought an umbrella, so we were only cold while wandering downtown, drinking and waiting for the game to begin, rather than cold and soaked.  

Izzy is really beginning to worry me, because it doesn't look like there's anything really all that wrong with him.  He was throwing the ball hard last night, with at least one 95 on the stadium gun that I saw.  He doesn't look hobbled, like he did so often in the 2006 campaign; he just isn't getting the job done lately.  It's unfortunate, because this team doesn't have the margin for error to make up for the closer to try and work through his issues on the field. 

More than that, though, this offense needs a shot in the arm.  I have no idea where it's going to come from, unfortunately, because there aren't really any deals to be made this time of year.  I can't imagine a team really looking to move any sort of run producer this early; no one's even really close to being out of it yet.  So what's the answer?  Do we rehash the lineup discussions again?  Does the team need to start being more aggressive at the plate, rather than looking to get on base?  That doesn't seem to be a good idea to me; everything I know about the game suggests that more baserunners should equal more runs.  I wonder about it a bit, though.  Is this team too patient?  Personally, I don't think so, but I'm curious to hear what anyone else has to say on the matter. 

The offense's job doesn't get any easier today, with Roy Oswalt on the hill for Houston.  One of our longtime nemeses, I would love nothing more than to hang about six runs in three innings on Roy, but I don't see it happening.  Oswalt struggled mightily in his first three starts of the season, as his breaking ball was nowhere to be found, but he has since righted the ship, much to our collective dismay.  I'm hoping to see a little different look in the batting order today; maybe a little shakeup is just what the team needs to get it going.  Then again, maybe not.  But it certainly can't get much worse than five walks in the first two innings, against Shawn @$&!*$ Chacon, and pushing across two- count 'em- two runs.  You may want to throw a shutout today, Adam, to try and avoid another loss on your record. 

Enough spleen.  I'm going to try and find some way to get rid of this headache.  At the very least, I would like to cure the current one before incurring another.  Happy Saturday, folks.  Enjoy the game.