community projection: matt clement
matt clement first became a free agent after the 2004 season. at the time i thought he was a good fit for the cardinals, who were flimsy at the top of their rotation --- carpenter hadn't yet established himself as a bona fide ace, morris was in eclipse, and the rest of the staff comprised steady eddies who could win division titles but didn't scare anybody in october. clement went only 9-13 in 2004, but he had a good era and good peripherals; from 2002-04 he showed flashes of dominance, posting the 4th-highest strikeout rate in the league and holding opposing batters to a .223 / .309 / .360 line. he was 29 years old, mature and healthy; he'd taken 30 or more starts for the previous 6 years in a row. the cardinals never showed much interest in clement and instead traded for mark mulder, who was coming off a much shakier season; here's how the two pitchers' three-year lines compared heading into 2005:
| GS | IP | H/9 | W/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| clement 02-04 | 94 | 588 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 8.8 | 1.0 | 3.80 | .223 | .309 | .360 | ||
| mulder 02-04 | 89 | 620 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 3.72 | .252 | .310 | .391 |
these pitchers continued to track each other in 2005-07: both wrecked their shoulders, had surgery in 2006, and missed most or all of the 2007 season. now they're teammates.
the VEB community did a reasonably accurate job of projecting last year (here's a summary of what we projected). our most difficult test was to project braden looper, who had never pitched as a starter before, and we acquitted ourselves well. projecting clement is almost as dicey; there's no telling how this guy might perform.
if you're not familiar w/ the community projection trope, here's how it works: you post your gut feeling about how a given player's stat line will look in 2008, and i average up the results. for clement, i'd like you to give me the following numbers:
- games started
- innings
- hits
- walks
- strikeouts
- homers
- wins
- losses
- ERA
shifting gears: i got a note the other day from mike (aka the angry rant) at Stan Musial's Stance; he's involved with SABR's san diego chapter, whose next meeting will feature paul depodesta as a guest speaker. depodesta, the former dodger gm and billy beane protégé, now works in the padres' front office and was on the short list for the st louis gm job. he'll be taking questions at the SABR meeting, and mike has pledged to pass along queries from his readers (although he asks that the questions not be cardinal-centric). more info is here.
0 recs |
127 comments
Comments
My guess
by arch support on Jan 8, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here ya go
25/135/141/80/112/19/8/11/4.96
Clement's shoulder may be healthy, but he is going to have control issues and I'm worried his sinker won't sink and his slider won't bite like it used to.
by silent_bob on Jan 8, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's early...
25,135,141,80,112,19,8,11,4.96
by silent_bob on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Predictions
by bertold213 on Jan 8, 2008 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
clement time
by erik on Jan 8, 2008 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Space police here........
- Hanging Chad
by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cleeement
by Alxfritz on Jan 8, 2008 9:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Right here
by Mr Redbird on Jan 8, 2008 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
hmph...
Control will be a problem. His K-rate won't be what it used to...but not too bad.
by cardzfanbub on Jan 8, 2008 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
count me in
I am not as pessimistic as these numbers sound. I think he will get off to a shaky start, find himself for a while, and then kind of fall apart as the shoulder fatigues. Kind of like my golf game.
by giveml on Jan 8, 2008 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
when do pitchers and catcher's report?
clement? nothing sexy about his numbers. here's my uneducated guess (and that's exactly what it is!)....
23,138,135,58,129,18,8,8,4.20
by busch league on Jan 8, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement 2008
25,140,125,65,110,17,8,8,4.75
by martin on Jan 8, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
STATS!
by barry whiteteeth on Jan 8, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Space police here........
- Hanging Chad
by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
STATS! Part Deux
my bad...
by barry whiteteeth on Jan 8, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im In
by beanocook on Jan 8, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
spooky
by indakind on Jan 8, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"your" guess
by indakind on Jan 8, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good pitcher, not-so-good team
by DCGreg on Jan 8, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
good not great
by indakind on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts
by STLEdge on Jan 8, 2008 10:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 8, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Space police here.......
- Hanging Chad
by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Projection
by stlzoot on Jan 8, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My two cents
by fishref on Jan 8, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
clement projection
7,35,52,18,18,9,1,5,7.02
by _pistol_ on Jan 8, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
yup
But I am very bearish on pitchers with torn cuffs and labrums. I don't think this will be pretty.
by Hungry Jack on Jan 8, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You should average the two to represent
by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe too realistic?
by airhad on Jan 8, 2008 11:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
clement projection
by rjwillia on Jan 8, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wishful
26,152,213,83,143,18,12,9, 4,12
GO CARDS!!!
by SuperSeve on Jan 8, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Joining in the optimist club...
by ArkansasTravs on Jan 8, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's gonna be a long year......
by BleacherBum on Jan 8, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Assuming reasonably good health
by Merry CRasmus on Jan 8, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement Predictions
by mathisjm on Jan 8, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Projections
by South Side Cards Fan on Jan 8, 2008 12:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here's my line...
As you can guess I am betting he is as healthy as everybody says he is...
by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sorry...forgot. Commas only
by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my completely uneducated guess
30,173,150,60,20,12,8,4.10
by RosevilleRedbird on Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Senor Clement
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 8, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Space police here........
- Hanging Chad
by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why does he keep saying that?
by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oops
Thanks
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 9, 2008 3:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The precursor to a rockin' 2009
by Jhusk on Jan 8, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
crap
22,145,190,85,180,12,10,7,4.25
by Jhusk on Jan 8, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 8, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
an 88 mph fastball...
18,100,115,25,75,14,4,8,5.41
by SleepyCA on Jan 8, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement in '08...
Probably on the optimistic side.
by Cards82 on Jan 8, 2008 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement '08
by Nathan W on Jan 8, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement 08 - I think the shoulder's healthy
by Oregonian Redbird on Jan 8, 2008 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Temporary threadjack(HOF news)...
End of threadjack
by cardsrul on Jan 8, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement '08 projection
by taguchi on Jan 8, 2008 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
games started
innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
ERA
by MRCARD on Jan 8, 2008 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement 2008 Projection
by TenRingsAndCounting on Jan 8, 2008 2:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement 08
by joedick on Jan 8, 2008 2:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
MINE
by GOOCH24 on Jan 8, 2008 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not to split hairs: a less than chintastic year
by Fred Head on Jan 8, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
by bheikoop on Jan 8, 2008 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Space police here..........
- Hanging Chad
by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Here Fine?
2008 Matt Clement projection:
27, 170, 150, 70, 145, 17, 14, 8, 3.89
by bheikoop on Jan 8, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You still didn't remove
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 8, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hahaha...
27,170,150,70,145,17,14,8,3.89
by bheikoop on Jan 8, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clement
10,63,95,28,48,10,3,5,5.36
by cardsrul on Jan 8, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here goes nothing....
by SWIN on Jan 8, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement 2008
19,119,119,69,77,16,6,8,4.77
by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
not terribly optimistic
20,106,121,44,55,10,5,10,5.05
by chris13 on Jan 8, 2008 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
fixed
by erik on Jan 8, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement in 2008
by CardsFanChad on Jan 8, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
my predictions
He definitely won't get 30 starts this season pitching on the back-end of the rotation and his ERA is probably going to regress to league average from his 3 year average from 2002-2004. Same with strikeouts, althougth I'm optimisitic that his walk rate might go down as he has to rely on location and finesse a bit more to get hitters out. Why only 10-8? Because he's literally the unluckiest pitcher in the big leagues. He should have at least three 15 win seasons under his belt and probably should have won 20 games in 2004 if it wasn't for atrocious run support. Baseball-Reference has him most closely related to Todd Stottlemyre at this point in his career; if he can be as successful as Stottlemyre was at age 33 & 34 we probably have ourselves a steal.
by fourstick on Jan 8, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ummm...
Look at the requested columns again:
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
by Mr Clean on Jan 9, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pessimist!
by Alxfritz on Jan 9, 2008 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually they make perfect sense...
25,160,179,88,125,22,10,8,4.45
by fourstick on Jan 9, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clement
by Just Rope Ball on Jan 8, 2008 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Matty C
I think we're going to see some of the same tendencies from Clement this season that we saw from Kip this year, though not quite as pronounced. Good stuff at times, poor control, and times when he's pitching well and then loses it in a hurry, due to the shoulder.
by the red baron on Jan 8, 2008 5:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
correction
by the red baron on Jan 8, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are a genius!
by Nathan W on Jan 8, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clem
Slightly above M.O.R.
by glennrwordman on Jan 8, 2008 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
by AlberttheKing23 on Jan 8, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
I think that shoulder is shot.
by maddash1946 on Jan 8, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pirates may want Brad Thompson....
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/pirates-interes.html
Maybe they will take like 3 4th outfielders off our hands with 2 or 3 swingmen pitchers.
by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
im so glad that
by punchinjudy on Jan 8, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ick
by giveml on Jan 8, 2008 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
signed through '09
by SleepyCA on Jan 8, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Someone should throw this up on the side bar
by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
the rumor?
by punchinjudy on Jan 8, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No. I agree. I did the same thing right before you
by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clement projections
g, ip, h, bb, so, hr, w,l, era
i think Matt will either be himself (and pitch well), or not pitch at all. i can't see him performing as a '06 Wells/Reyes. i've gone with the optimistic variant.but of course he should have some comeback struggles in the first couple of weeks (april through may).
by Johnny64 on Jan 8, 2008 6:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm optimisitc
by DiscoJer on Jan 8, 2008 6:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
nothing wrong with being positive
by jacksonian on Jan 8, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mr. Clement comes to the Lou
24,177,160,45,155,11,10,11,4.12
by mwinf12 on Jan 8, 2008 8:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
a thought about your #s
by the red baron on Jan 9, 2008 2:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chin Music
by chicagocardfan on Jan 8, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guess
On a side note, I'll be in Ft Myers for Easter and noticed I'll be able to take in the Cards v Twins on Mar 24th. Chance to see Colby finishing off a strong spring. And I can be first in line for an Aaron Miles autograph!!
by ubeddie on Jan 8, 2008 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
a little feng shui-ish
by SethWestern on Jan 8, 2008 10:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
not feeling the love
by azruavatar on Jan 8, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Matt Clement #s...the projections begin!!
For now, that is what I am thinking. I hope I'm off in the wrong direction on some of those. I REALLY hope I'm NOT off in the right direction.
stlfan
by stlfan on Jan 8, 2008 11:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here it goes...
30,192,196,64,162,21,12,13,4.63
by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 8, 2008 11:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
will pitch well...
20,130,125,45,100,15,8,6,4.35
by capn crunch on Jan 8, 2008 11:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement 2008
He's a first-half surprise: throws a couple of absolute gems and has a nice 6-1 stretch in June/early July. But also throws a few 3-inning Ponsonesque stinkers, misses a couple of starts with soreness and is finally shut down Aug. 15 for more surgery.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 8, 2008 11:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Give the guy his due...
Here is what guayzimi had to say...
"W,L,RS,RA,GB/GA
78,84,705,773,-8
Luck swings both ways I'm afraid..."
Nobody could have forseen Carp missing the entire year, but the next lowest win total predicted by anyone was 86. Most people were predicting 90 wins.
The win predictions may look a little different this year...
by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 9, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
My Projection for Clement:
GS, IP, H,BB,SO,HR, W,L, ERA
21,126,108,63,84,13,10,7,4.17
by Mr Clean on Jan 9, 2008 1:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement 08'
Not going to go deep, but will make it thru the season with a few games skipped for rest. Velocity will only improve slightly.
BUT....Will whip up on the Bear Whelps, the Houston Minute Maids and will lose mainly because of bad luck run support.
by cardschinmusic on Jan 9, 2008 5:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement / Cairo
27,155,130,75,165,25,12,12,4.21
Cairo:
Glad to see he signed on somewhere else. Love this little guy! hah
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/09/mariners-sign-miguel-cairo/
by ET90210 on Jan 9, 2008 9:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
OK, so I'm a pessimist...
I just don't think his arm is going to hold up. He'll look OK for a while, but will struggle with command/control until something goes sproing. A bit of bullpen work won't solve the problem, and he'll be on the 60-day by late July.
This said, I really like this signing. A line more like 25/150/140/60/140/8/15/6/3.50 (not comma-delimited so that it isn't confused with my "real" prediction) is only slightly less likely than my predicted one, depending on how his shoulder is. Cheap high-risk, high-return signings are 100% appropriate for a team in a position like the Cardinals; it only takes about two of them working out for the team to be a serious contender. The NL Central just isn't that strong.
by StanTheManFan on Jan 9, 2008 9:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
by crosseyedpirate on Jan 9, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
OOPS sorry, had my computer do the projections for me and forgot it only speaks in binary.
Wait, did I see a 2 in there? Oh no I think I've got a virus.
by That's a Winner on Jan 9, 2008 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll take a shot
by lawman3842 on Jan 9, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
So a subject is required, eh?
29,179,170,65,144,16,14,9,4.02
by Fajen Thygia on Jan 9, 2008 10:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clement
by Sect163 on Jan 9, 2008 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clemens
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Jan 9, 2008 4:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Clemens II
Sorry, I left GS out on the above entry.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Jan 9, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs



















