trade and true

by lboros on Sep 18, 2007 9:20 AM EDT in St. Louis Cardinals News

that's quite the competition between thompson and reyes to grab the inside track for next year's #5 rotation slot, eh? they're both rapidly pitching themselves out of the team's plans for 2008, while mark mulder is experiencing shoulder soreness that team trainer barry weinberg described as "not a good sign." that leaves wainwright and looper as the only sure things in next year's rotation; for the 2d straight year, the team will have to extensively rebuild its rotation over the winter.

the recent aj burnett diary got me thinking about the trade market for pitchers in the off-season to come. it looks to be a lot stronger than the free-agent arms market, a thin group made up mainly of very old guys (schilling, kenny rogers, jon leiber, david wells), midcareer mediocrities (kris benson, livan hernandez, kyle lohse, jeff weaver, kip wells), and damaged goods (jason jennings, john thomson, freddy garcia, bartolo colon). here's a mostly complete list of free-agent arms.

the trade market, by contrast, promises to be robust. nearly a dozen high-priced pitchers will be in their walk year in 2008, and walk-year pitchers are prime trade candidates. several of'm changed jerseys last off-season, including freddy garcia, jason jennings, jaret wright, and rodrigo lopez. the list of guys who are or will be entering their final contract year in 2008 includes

brad penny
jon garland
john lackey
derek lowe
matt morris
jake peavy
oliver perez
johan santana

the roster of possible tradees also might include aj burnett, who is signed through 2010 but has an opt-out clause in his contract that he can exercise after next season, making him a free agent; and dontrelle willis, if anybody still wants him.

this is a pretty tasty group, and some of them almost surely will move. garland's name has been in circulation since july of this season; penny was thought certain to be dealt this past winter (although given his stellar year and jason schmidt's injury, he probably isn't going anywhere now); morris already has moved once and might do so again, as the new pirates management begins soaping off the stink of dave littlefield; burnett is at odds w/ the management in toronto; and willis' name has been cycling through the rumor mill almost nonstop since march 2006.

out of the group, i like burnett the best; i wanted the cardinals to sign him two winters ago, and i think he'd be a perfect fit for this team. for one thing, he strikes people out and throws the sinker; each fan would be able to love him for his/her own reasons. there's also the fact that he's pitching his ass off --- since returning from the dl on august 12, he has gone 3-1, 1.78 in 7 starts, with an opponent average of .146. if he manages to squeeze past the innings threshold for era title qualification, he'll likely finish in the top 10 in the league. his contract pays $12m in 2008 and (if he doesn't opt out) the same amount for 2009-10. burnett has never had an era above 4.00 in a season where he threw at least 100 innings; in two years in the hitter-friendly skydome in the difficult al east, he has compiled a 3.69 era. at busch iii he could easily have an era in the 2s. . . . of course, if that were to happen he'd opt out of the contract and sign for $15m a year somewhere. for that reason, the cardinals can't really afford to pay full value for the guy; no team can, really. so the blue jays probably will have great difficulty moving him, if'n that's even what they want to do.

let's face it: the guys most likely to be dealt are the guys who are performing the worst, ie morris willis and garland. willis appears to be washed up; he's 9-15 with a 5.34 era this year despite pitching in a run-stifling environment, and his opponent averages (.304 / .373 / .490) are worse than kip wells'. he seems to have thrown too many innings in his early 20s, an age when a pitcher should be shielded from 200+-inning workloads. as for morris: bless his heart, he'll compete. he'll be great with the fans. . . . . and he'll soak up a big chunk of payroll while posting an era in the high 4.00s or low 5.00s. as much as i adore him, i don't think he has much left to offer.

that leaves garland, who has thrown at least 190 innings for 6 years in a row; shades of suppan. garland this year has notched only half the wins he logged in 2006, despite a very consistent performance year to year:

	w-l	era	w/9	k/9	hr/9	avg	obp	slg
2007	9-12	4.47	2.6	4.3	0.9	.277	.327	.429
2006	18-7	4.51	1.8	4.7	1.1	.294	.328	.450

those figures remind me of mulder, circa 2005 --- not really good enough to support an 18-7 record, but much better than 9-12. garland used to have pronounced groundball tendencies, but this year his fb/gb is nearly dead even. oddly enough, his BABIP has increased as his groundball rate has decreased; usually it's the other way around. one imagines that the cardinal coaching staff (were the current one still in place) would try to get garland's groundball rate back up to its former level. his 2008 salary is $12m.

what would it take to get him? when the white sox dealt freddy garcia last winter under similar circumstances, the cost was a couple of young arms, gavin floyd and gio gonzalez. floyd at the time of the trade was in a position not unlike that of anthony reyes --- a heralded prospect who advanced quickly through the minors and received a rude welcome to the major leagues. gonzalez was 20 years old at the time of the trade, also a heralded prospect coming off a down year --- in this case, a rough transition to double A. the most comparable guys in the st louis system are jaime garcia and blake hawksworth.

i'm certainly not endorsing that trade, ie reyes and either garcia or hawksworth for one season of jon garland. i think it would be disastrous, and i can't believe the cardinals would make it. of course, it might be possible to get garland on less expensive terms --- garcia was coming off a 17-9 season when the phillies traded for him (albeit with a similar era) and faintly bore the #1 starter tag. if all it took was reyes, or reyes plus a lesser prospect, then maybe it'd make sense. . . . but the inescapable conclusion of this exercise is that the trade market really isn't much more promising than the free-agent market, as far as the cardinals are concerned --- because the cardinals remain poorly positioned to compete in the trade market. if it's uncertain whether they can afford jon garland, they certainly can't afford any of the better pitchers who might become available.

in the end, they might be looking at matt morris after all --- reliable, well liked within the organization, not too expensive talentwise. the cards almost had him in july; if the new pgh gm has any sense, his first phone call will be to walt jocketty.

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One Interesting Name

On that list is John Lackey. For the Angels, it would probably have to start with Duncan. After that, maybe throw in Franklin and a minor leaguer. Burnett would also be fine, but I fear the injuries. Garland would be great, but I wouldn't want to give up the farm. Perhaps trade Anderson, Boggs, and Edmonds for him---I think the White Sox could use a CF.

Come on You Redbirds--Mike Shannon

by BluesDrummer85 on Sep 18, 2007 9:33 AM EDT reply actions

I doubt Lackey will be traded....

I see no possible reason the Angels wouldn't re-sign him.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 18, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

i agree

lackey is an ace and the angels dont need to dump payroll
i dont see any reason he doesnt reup there for big cash
id love to have him though

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Sep 18, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Options

Does it seem like to anyone else that Thompson and Reyes give up home runs during the pre-game show. I swear the Cards start their games with a deficit.

I, for one, don't think Willis is finished, but I also believe someone will overpay (in prospects) for him. Garland and Burnett seem the most likely. If it took Reyes and Hawksworth to get Burnett, I would have to consider that...it may be a bit much for Garland.

As much as I love Matty Mo...the Pirates would have to eat some of that salary.

Derek Lowe is an interesting one. I think Duncan could work some magic with a guy like him.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Birdos make a run at Schilling, but if they signed him, they would not trade for an expensive guy.

Cards tend to go after guys they have always liked. In your group, that would mean Burnett, Penny, Schilling, Weaver, Hernandez, Wells and Morris.

Wainwright, Schilling, Looper, Piniero, J.ThompsonMulderReyes

I don't know if that will work or not.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Sep 18, 2007 9:36 AM EDT reply actions

Thompson and Reyes HR

You aren't kidding. In the last 30 days both pitchers have HR/9 hovering around 3.5. Even more alarming is that Reyes has given up THREE grand slams in that timeframe, giving rise to my new favorite stat, GS/9 of 1.48.

Times up for Reyes.

by kemime on Sep 18, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I was wondering

has any other pitcher, in the history of this glorious game, given up three grand slams in such close proximity? I would tend to doubt it . . .

by tdawg on Sep 18, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

it seems to me

that there's at least one pitcher who has given up two in an inning, but memory fails on who that was.

by sdesserman on Sep 18, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Chan Ho Park

against the Cardinals and Fernando Tatis? That game was crazy.

by Valatan on Sep 18, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Had to check

Good call, too.

11 days before that memorable game, Chan Ho Park had given up a Grand Slam to Travis Lee.

In conclusion, Anthony Reyes hasn't been bad to historical proportions.

by liam on Sep 18, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Piniero should get a look

the Cardinals should try to resign him at $4 M that he is making this year. At worst, he's a solid #5 starter, at best a good #3.

He has the versatility to be a bullpen pitcher if he flames out.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 10:08 AM EDT reply actions

Option

I think the Cards should pick up their side of the option, while I haven't been able to get a good link I think I read that it is a mutual option for 8M, he may not be worth 8M but I think that is our best bet of resigning him and that will answer at least one question for us. This off season promises to be exciting so far.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

it is a mutual option

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

his original contract was a mutual option

for 4 million (and change?). Are you talking about changes the Cards may have made?

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Detailed link on Piniero's contract

http://stlcardinals.scout.com/a.z?s=321&p=8&c=1&nid=3273780

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

I knew it was mutual but I didn't know the exact price, I think I might have seen it spelled out once before but it was a really weird contract from what I remember.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

it is a wierd one

I didn't know about his various incentives before reading this.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

wierd=weird

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree

for all the reasons you state. Also, we haven't had much time to work with him and he isn't conditioned right now to be a starter. There's a possibility that he could be much better next year if he had the winter to condition himself as a starter.

And his interviews have been great--he sounds a lot like Wainwright in how he approaches pitching. I want more bulldog pitchers. I'm so sick of the wilting variety.

But I think we would have to pay him more given the market.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

...and

hopefully Walt would say, Thanks, but no thanks." I also loooooved MattyMo for most of his tenure as a Bird. But when he went, I was glad to see him go. It was time. I really hope they don't revisit the days of Good MattMo/Bad MattMo. It was just too hard on my blood pressure.

by rockin redbird on Sep 18, 2007 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

I would not be surprised

if they converted Welleymeyer back to a starter. They like him, they've said he has tremendous natural talent, they think he works hard, he has the right attitude, and he doesn't get rattled. Remember TLR said that deciding to take Welleymeyer out of the rotation was one of the hardest decisions he had made this season (at tht point).

In 488 minor league appearances, Welleymeyer has 452 strikeouts and 36 homeruns. His ERA in the minors in 2005 was 3.02 and in 2004 it was 3.05.

His ERA in St. Louis is 3.55, better than Reyes, Wells, and Thompson.

I'm not advocating for this one way or the other. But I think, given their conversion of Looper, this may be an option they are thinking about. And it would be an easier conversion since Welley was a starter not that long ago. He also has a lot of tools, including high heat. From Dunc's comments earlier in the year, he seems to think that Welleymeyer hasn't been coached well since leaving the minors. He seems to think he can do something with him. And we know how much Dunc likes a good project.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:15 AM EDT reply actions

oops-I reversed Welley's minor league numbers

In 452 minor league appearances, he had 488 strikeouts and 36 homeruns. His ERA's of 3.02 and 3.05 are correct.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not against that at all

I'd like to see us develop him as a starter that strikes people out.

by sdrone on Sep 18, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

i'd much rather see wellemeyer

than reyes or wells (or thompson or maroth) at this point in the year, and hopefully for next year too. he's just a likable-seeming person, for one thing, but he seized his (limited) opportunities better than these others have done (apart from thompson in the middle of the year). wasn't perfect, but showed some promise for the future as well as some actual good results in the present.

by willievinceterry on Sep 18, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

all good points

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I love Matty Mo

but seeing him play now, I think it would be unwise to bring him back for all that money. His age is clearly beginning to a take a toll on his pitching. Frankly, I'd rather try to get Weaver back on track or stay with Thompson. Reyes needs to move on--for his sake as well as the teams. He just looks like he's slowly melting on the mound.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:18 AM EDT reply actions

MattyMo

I was at this past Saturday's game between PIT/HOU, and MM was the SP. Being that I really liked him when he was pitching for us, I especially paid attention to him when he was on the mound. For the first 3-4 innings, MM was dealing. If memory serves me correctly, there was one out in the 4th and "bad MattMo" showed up. He ended up giving up 5 runs that inning and 2 more the following. All in all, nycardfan, I agree with you on the MM point of your post.

Dont give up boys!

by yer dog first on Sep 18, 2007 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

The question as always is:

Are any of the above options really better than letting Reyes try and pitch to his potential while costing the club little?

Given the list, my first reaction is no. Unless the Cards traded for someone like Burnett and got him to agree to drop is opt out clause, then I just fail to see how Reyes is a worse option than the above.

Complain all you want, but so long as the Cardinal organization jerks Reyes around, failing to commit to him as a starter for extended periods (ie. half a season or more), then we will never get a true read on his abilities.

When given long periods of consistent staring opportunities, Reyes has provided league average production. When yanked in and out of the rotation, had his starts skipped, and been dumped in the bullpen, Reyes has struggled mightily.

by JMedwick on Sep 18, 2007 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

How long of a rope does Reyes get?

he's hanging not only himself, but the team. He may be able to do well elsewhere but it seems painfully obvious that he's shown no progress whatsoever here (in fact he's gone downhill).

People keep railing against Wells. There is a good possibility that Reyes will be another Wells. Should be good. Isn't good. Since Reyes is out of options, if we keep him, we have to leave someone else out. He's given us no reason to believe he'll improve next year when he's shown no improvement this year. At some point, we have to cut our losses and move on.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

He's the Pete Falcone

of the 2000's Cardinals.

"We're sniffing the winning situation."

by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 18, 2007 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

League average?

"When given long periods of consistent staring opportunities, Reyes has provided league average production."

That is just not true. He was given a long period of consistent starting opportunities to start this year, and he was not league average. Last year he was league-average for a 5th (maaaybe 4th) starter at best.

by willievinceterry on Sep 18, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Hu?

Lets go to the stats:

From April through May 25ths, Reyes had 9 starts
Through that period he went 0-8, with a 6.08 era in 50.1 innings. His whip was a mild 1.35. His strikeout to walk ratio was 2.1. He was averaging slightly under 5.2 innings pitched per outing.

After this run, Reyes was dumped from the rotation, only to come back for a 3 start turn from June 17 to June 27. Over the 3 starts Reyes averaged slightly under 5 innings a start, giving up 12 earned runs in 14.1 innings, a whip of 1.7.

Reyes was again demoted until making a run of six uninterrupted starts from July 28 to August 23. Over this period Reyes's record was 2-3, with a 3.34 era, a whip of 1.08, averaging slightly over 5.2 innings per start and maintaining a 2:1 k to BB ratio. 13 earned runs and 17 runs allowed in 35 innings of work.

From the 23rd onward, Reyes has received inconsistent opportunities, coming out of the bullpen and irregular spot starter work. Not surprisingly, Reyes has been horrible (15.26 era, 7.2 innings pitched, 4 appearances [with two starts], more walks than strikeouts).

So where does this leave us?

This season Reyes' longest uninterrupted starting streak was 9 games at the beginning of the season where his record and era were not indicative of his true pitching abilities (lower whip, decent strikeout rate, bad run suport). His second longest streak was 6 consecutive starts where Reyes probably pitched a bit over his head, but pitched very well. The rest of the time, he has been horrible.

I say give him a chance to start consistently. No more skipped starts. No more bullpen appearances. Give Reyes a string of 15 or 16 starts (half a season of work). All this d*cking around that LaRussa and Duncan do with pulling and adding Reyes from the rotation does more harm than good.

by JMedwick on Sep 18, 2007 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

What would Santana cost?

Reyes and Rasmus? Plus a lesser PTBNL?

It would proably be more than that. The only similar trade I can think of is Freddy Garcia and Jose Guillen for Randy Johnson, but that was so long ago, I don't think it's really applicable.

by Valatan on Sep 18, 2007 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

Only way Santana is traded...

is if it's a Walter Payton-esque incredibly lopsided deal in favor of the Twins.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 18, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

well

If they can't lock him up long term, and that is unlikely since he wants 6-7Y @ 18-20M (per mlb4u.com), he will be traded. You're right about it being a blockbuster though...

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 18, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Another possible comparable:

Curt Schilling, Jly 26, 2000: Traded by the Philadelphia Phillies to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee, and Vicente Padilla.

Santana is better than Schilling was at that point, and both a reliable ace and prospects are now worth more than they used to be. Judging that one now is hard, as Padilla and Lee didn't turn out to be the players that they were supposed to be. But then again, that's kind of why I don't believe in holding onto hearlded prospects unless they obviously have talent on the level of Griffey, Sizemore, or Bonds.

by Valatan on Sep 18, 2007 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

you mean

a Hershel Walker-esque deal...
yeah, i am a Vikings fan, and i remember that fun trade - sigh

RankMyTattoo

by Supergus on Sep 18, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

sigh....

I knew after I typed it that it didn't sound right. But yes, that's what I meant. I need to brush up on my football history.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 18, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

You know way more than I do

about all this stuff, but my first reaction is dream on.... Plus, I don't want to let go of Rasmus.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

Piniero should be included

in the list of returning starters. I think he's shown enough promise so far, certainly better than some others (Maroth, Wells). If he will come back at his option price ($4M + up to $2M incentives) he could be a good, mid-priced #4 or #5.

Of the names on lb's trade list, John Lackey intrigues me. Maybe it's just 'cause he was my best pitcher on my fantasy team this year, but he is having a good year. What do you suppose it would take to get him and what is his 2008 contract for?

by ArkansasTravs on Sep 18, 2007 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

i agree with this also

if mulder is iffy, as it now looks he might be after todays developments, we should lock him up
he will be a fine four or five guy
theres not much to choose from, we wont do better for that kinda money

whats shawn chacons contract status?

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Sep 18, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

What about 2009?

Can the Cardinals even contend in 2008? Their ace is out, and their offense is going to be as old and injured as it was this year. Why not use '08 as a kind of rebuilding year to get a somewhat idea of how the rotation is actually going to look, then go from there in '09.

Who knew that many people live in Puerto Rico?

by Yadi4MVP on Sep 18, 2007 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

Unless the Cubs and Brewers greatly improve

the Cardinals with a terrible pitching staff contended without Encarnacion, Rolen and Duncan.

If Rolen and Duncan can stay healthy next year and the Cardinals can pick up an above average RH outfield bat, I don't see why they couldn't contend next year.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I've been thinking about that a lot

this week. Even with our rotation disintegrating and half our players injured, we could have won (and probably should have won) 3 out 4 of those games against the Cubs. And if we had a pitcher who could have kept the runs below 10, we would have won against the Phillies last night. The same goes for the D'back and Reds series.

I think the fact that we were in contention at all this year with what we had to work with should make us hopeful for next year (given our division).

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Is the offense going to be as injured

as this year. Rolen's surgery is expected to bring him back to a condition that we haven't seen in two years. Jimmy has been basically in rehab this year. TLR said he expects him to be playing close to his full abilities by next season. Pujols? Can't those hammy injuries ever heal? I think Eckstein's back is a constant problem, but I hope he's gone next year. And Speez, as long as he stays healthy, should be back to full strength.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Anyone else besides me

excited to see Barden play last night? I was geniunly interested in every at-bat he took.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 11:17 AM EDT reply actions

I only saw his ninth-inning ad bat

The pop up. Would be interested to see him play, but I have a hard time imagining he has a huge future with this team unless it's as a utility infielder. Rolen will theoretically be back next year, and so will Spiezio, so where would he play?

by willievinceterry on Sep 18, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

"at bat"

not "ad bat."

by willievinceterry on Sep 18, 2007 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

He was one of big highlights of my night

play him more! Let's see what Barden can do. But put him at 3rd and let Speezio take a rest. I don't want them to replace Ryan. He needs the experience as well. I say put the new guys out there--Skip (let Jimmy rest and get ready for next year), Ludwick, Ankiel, Barden, Ryan.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Game was blacked out here

But I've been whining about not giving a start to the supposed best gloveman at third on the active roster since his call-up.

Wish I coulda seen it, hopefully he'll get a start tonight. From the radio, it sounds like he earned it.

by liam on Sep 18, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Wellemeyer

I think there is only one thing hurting Todd Wellemeyer at this point. His walks need to improve a lot. But he is the best option at converting a guy to a starter for next year. He has good life on his fastball and he hits 93-94 MPH. He can hit 96 MPH as well but that is when his fastball tends to straighten out. I think he is a great option for next year. He is a big, strong guy just like Looper. I think Wellemeyer just needs to throw strikes. That was his problem when he was a reliver for the Cubs. Welleymeyer and Farnsworth threw gas but needed to have better command of the strike zone.

Wainwright
Looper
Pinero
Wellemeyer
Reyes
Mulder/Carp

I think Mulder is done. They need to do the buy out thing and move on. He is not a good enough pitcher to get guys out throwing 88-89 MPH. Some pitchers can throw with that stuff but Mulder is just not good enough to do so.

I am not a big fan of Reyes but he is cheap. He has been given a lot of opportunities acutally plenty the last couple years and he has not stepped up and been consistent. If we can trade him for garland straight up I would do it.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

Next year sucks...

I have been thinking about this and came to the conclusion that 2008 is just going to be awful. I think that the best player to get off the list will be someone who will be with this team in 2009 on.

I think the real problem positions for the cards in 2009 are 3B, RF, and SP. The problem is that we are thin at a lot of positions in the minors. We appear to have one player available at a couple of positions that could be above average major leaguers.

Position wise we could have these guys playing in the majors by 2009.

2B-Houppair currently at AAA
SS-Martienez at AA
CF-Rasmus at AA
Closer - Perez at AAA

Thats four league min salaries. Given potential incumbents of Pujols, Molina, Duncan. That leaves 3B where rolen is a shell of his former self and RF where I am not convince Ankiel is legit. I think the relief market is so fuild that no one can predict next year much more 2009. Lets assume we can build a league average bullpen.

But the starters are no where to be found. We will have Carpenter, Wainwright, and probably on pitcher from the minors to fill the 5th spot but we will have money to spend.

Where do we have redundant players to use as trade bait in the org?

Bryan Anderson
Mark Hamilton

These might be it right now and it will take more to get one of the guys larry listed that could be around for 2009. I am wary of trading for pitching this year. I think we should pay for it in the 08-09 offseason.

by BigJawnMize on Sep 18, 2007 11:37 AM EDT reply actions

the last thing we need to do

is trade for an outfielder. Ludwick and Ankiel are both legit, and either will put up at least Carlos Lee-career numbers (.840 OPS) if they are given a starting job for the whole season. We also have a lot of talent in the minors- Mather, Rasmus, Haerther, Skip, etc could all hold the position down.

We need a real infielder (SS/2B type) to back up/replace Kennedy (or, heaven forbid, Rolen--and since we didn't give Hoff a shot this September, I'm assuming he's not on the radar--and pitching. Lots and lots of pitching.

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 18, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

totally agree

I think we need to get a player with a great glove and bat for second base. If we are going to cultivate groundball pitchers, we need to protect them. Our outfielders are good defensively and adequate offensively. I also think they will perform better next year (Jimmy because he's regaining strength; the rest because of their increased experience).

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

here's an idea:

Alexei Ramírez is coming to America.

Wouldn't he have to be drafted, like Marti?

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 18, 2007 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

That's an interesting idea

I hope they do look into that...

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Ankiel is not legit...

Has he gotten a hit that wasn't a weak infield single since the HGH story came out?

IMHO, he's finished as a big league player. Certainly the Cardinals shouldn't count on him as a starter for next year.

by DiscoJer on Sep 18, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Where've I heard that before?

by liam on Sep 18, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

why larussa drives me nuts

Cate designated for assignment
By Joe Strauss
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
09/18/2007

Lefthanded reliever Troy Cate is believed a probable waiver claim after the Cardinals designated him for assignment last Friday to make room for utility player Scott Spiezio on the 40-man roster. Cate worked 14 games for the Cardinals without a decision while compiling a 3.38 ERA and striking out 12 in 16 innings this season.

why in the hell do we dump Cate who actually makes batters swing and miss, and keep randy flores who doesnt seem to get out more than half the batters he faces

ARGGGH!

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Sep 18, 2007 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

oops

sorry about the H word

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Sep 18, 2007 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Half?

heh.

by sdrone on Sep 18, 2007 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Tony did this how?

This was a Jocketty decision, they had to open the roster spot for Spiezio, this isn't anything to do with TLR.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

they should have put Duncan on 60 day DL

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Before Dunc's surgery

This was BEFORE Duncan had surgery (it was when we activated Spiezio) and thus we still had hopes that he would come back and play this season.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks-didn't know that

still, Dunc was playing so badly with his injury, I think he should have been DL'd by that point since they knew it was related to an injury. Our lefties haven't been very reliable. I hate losing one, and we didn't even get anything for him in terms of trade value. I thought relievers, especially lefties, were a hot commodity.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

tony for whatever reason

never really used Cate, he had could have gotten into several more games when he was with the big club, and they rarely had him in games

i know he isnt the be all, end all of player decisions, but when the players are here and he doesnt give them a real shot....i tend to blame him

flores hasnt shown me much all year, and Cate is a fraction of the money.....

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Sep 18, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

So what?

He'll be a minor league FA during the offseason.

by liam on Sep 18, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Trading vs. FA pitching

In theory waiting to sing FA pitching is a good idea. With STL it is a horrible idea for this reason.

1. STL is stubborn and will not over spend.

This is a good and bad thing. There is not way STL will get the top 5 FA pitchers. They will be outbid and end of signing up a Weaver type guy. Jeff Weaver is not worth dealing with. STL got lucky that he pitched so well in the postseson. Jeff Weaver would be a terrible guy to trade for or sign via free agency.

Based on the Cardinals trackrecord there is no way they will be competative in the FA pitching market. Do you honestly think the Cadinals will have any shot at Johan Santana?

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

Dontrelle

You make a powerful point about Dontrelle Willis possibly being "done." If you check out the pitchers most similar to him through Age 24 at baseball-reference.com the 4 most similar - Steve Avery, Bob Moose, Ross Grimsely and Wally Bunker - all had very impressive starts but were finished before they got out of their 20's. Despite his obvious charm, I would be very wary of Dontrelle.

The time has come for someone to put his foot down and that foot is me

by heathen on Sep 18, 2007 12:13 PM EDT reply actions

Position Players

1st. ...Im new to the site but am happy to be here
2nd...Im from Iowa and just got back from watching the 4 game series against the baby bears
3rd... I have little to no concerns about our position players for the future. We do have a log jam on the outfield but an opening at 3rd. We will have 4 GOOD outfielders for the future. Ankiel, Dunc, Ludwick, and Jimmy for one more year then Colby in '09. I would think that we need to get one of these guys in the infield asap to get ready to take over at 3rd. Hate to harsh but Rolen, David and Jimmy are all but done. Go get paid Eck, just somewhere else. Rolen is a human M*A*S*H* rerun that is soaking up pitching pay-roll. Thanks Scotty but See-ya! Jimmy, play your one more year til Rasmus is ready, go to the Dodgers for a year and then retire, we appreciate the memories. Yadi isn't goin anywhere, AP is set, B Ryan looks like a player. And for some weird reason out 2nd base by committee actually works. Screw Maroth, Reyes, Franklin, Jiminez, etc. We got Wainy and Loop and thats it. Izzy can probably go as well. Now look at our pay-roll, you loose Rolen , Eck, Jimmy and Iz and presto! Instant Financial freedom!

by jefferson171 on Sep 18, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

I don't want to get rid of Rolen

First, having him on the DL has made me appreciate his glove that much more--the guy is simply amazing. Second, he was helping us win key games even when he couldn't keep one arm on his bat when he followed through on his swing. Third, he's supposed to be better than he's been in the last 2 years after his last surgery. If that's even close to being true, he would be an asset to this team. And finally, he gives TLR a hard time and I like having someone who ruffles his feathers.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Why not going to starter by committee...

If both Wellemeyer and Thompson can't pitch a full game, have both only go out for three innings. They wouldn't have to go through the lineup more than two times, and can still be used in the bullpen after an off day.

Who knew that many people live in Puerto Rico?

by Yadi4MVP on Sep 18, 2007 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

The bullpen committee

is fine for now. But both of them have been starters for extended periods before and each could be conditioned to be a regular starter for next year. Maybe they should condition both, given all of our problems this year. Who knows what next year will bring.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

All I have to add

is that I miss Chris Carpenter. . .

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Sep 18, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

Carp

You took the words right out of my mouth!!!

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

should

go after these 3, as I think they are great buy low candidates

Jeremy Bonderman
Andy Sonnanstine
Mike Mussina

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 18, 2007 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

Mussina

Not Mike Mussina! he has been hurt this year and his velocity and location have been awful. I am sorry to say he is like Morris in that their best days are behind them. The only theory on Mussina may be that he could be helped out by going to the NL. I just think he is too old and washed up. Pitching is so bad in MLB that no one will get rid of a decent pitcher. Basically people are trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Hoping that a pitcher somehow remembers how to pitch or just needs a change of scenery. I thought the Cubs pitching coach had a great line about Marquis success. "He had no other option but to start listening". Sometime a pitcher realizes he needs to step up or he will not be pitching anymore. That MLB paycheck is pretty good.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, Mussina

his demise is greatly exhaggerated.

4.68 xFIP
4.34 FIP
.352 BABIP

All these suggest he would be at least the #2 for the Cards if not their ace next year. He also has done this in the AL like you brought up. He would be essentially cost us no players, as I'm sure the Yankees would just like to get rid of him now that they will have Wang, Pettitte, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy for their rotation next year.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 18, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

WOW!!

Wow! I did not know his numbers were that good. I saw him pitch agains the White Sox and he was bad. I guess in the Yankee world everything is made out worse than it is.

My god I would take his stats at this point. I just don't think you want to pencil in Reyes, Wells, or Mulder at this point. By the way people talk Wells is not going to be back. I find it hard to imagine a team taking a chance on him in FA. I think he is back with the Cards. I think he only problem is mental.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

I've seen Mussina pitch at least 3 times on TV, and have read what opposing hitters have to say about him, and I've come to the conclusion that he's pretty much done. Yes, that BABIP is unlucky high, but then again when you throw an 85 mph fastball over the plate, or consistently hang changeups and curveballs, the ball is going to get hit pretty daggone hard. That to me says you're done unless you get really crafty all of a sudden.

To me, what you are pointing out is less an indication of Mussina's abilities and more of an indication of how godawful horrible the Cardinals pitching staff has been. The fact that a guy like Mussina would probably be one of our top 3 guys is downright scary.

by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 18, 2007 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not really saying

Mussina will be great. I just think he'll be good and better than anything not named Wainwright that we have. And that he will pretty much come for nothing of value, I think it's very much worth the risk.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 18, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Yankees coverage

clearly made it sound like he's really faded this year. Last I heard, I thought he was being taken out of the rotation and being put in the pen. But maybe that was only for a short time. I haven't been paying listening to their coverage for a while.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

The frontline stats ARE horrible

He's had a two point jump in his ERA and a .400 jump in his WHIP versus last year. His strikeout rate has dropped quite precipitously. He is in decline. It's just a matter of how much he is in decline.

by Valatan on Sep 18, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Mussina

last night 7 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 0 R.

When was the last time a Cardinal starting pitcher did that? Not trying to say that this one start means everything, but like I've already said his demise is greatly exhaggerated.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 19, 2007 7:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Bonderman

I keep saying this but I think a Duncan for Bonderman/Robertson trade might work out great for both teams and might be easy to pull off. Tiggers need a 1st basemen and we need a starter.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Duncan

Duncan is such a tough call at this point. It is hard to trade a guy who is your second most productive hitter this year despite being hurt a bunch. He had the bad knee early this season.

I don't know if I give up on him yet. He is young and I like his stick. I think the nice thing about Ludwick is he comes off the bench well so it is not like it would hurt Ludwick not getting consistent AB's if we want to have Duncan start in LF. Also Lud can play all three OF positions well enough to fill in.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Duncan

I am not down on Duncan, I love watching him swing, but I think his knee problems were caused by playing in the outfield and the tigers need a 1st basemen from what I can tell and he could do that for them. I would like Bonderman and I think we get a good deal and they get a good deal. Tigers are also stocked in pitching so losing one won't hurt them that bad, I really think they might take that trade, though I agree throw in Anderson and they will jump all over it.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I hadn't thought about his knees

and other injuries being related to the outfield. I like Duncan too but I continue to think it would be better for his career and for our team if he played in his natural position. Your musings on what we might get from the Tigers are intriguing. Also, because TLR is comfortable with the Tigers, he'd have an easier time letting him go. Being baby Dunc, TLR is probably attached to him since he's known him forever.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

His natural position

From what I've heard, his 1B defense wasn't at all good. His hands aren't quick—pretty much all he's got going for himself there is his reach.

His leftfield defense has improved to the point where I've heard, from Derrick Goold for one, say that he's better there than at first.

by liam on Sep 18, 2007 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm

not sure the Tigers do Bonderman for Duncan, I could see them doing Robertson for Duncan. The thing is I like Bonderman a good amount more than Robertson and think Bonderman if everything is going right is an ace. I was thinking something Bryan Anderson and Chris Duncan for Bonderman and an average prospect would work as then the Tigers get the catcher they need after Pudge potentially leaves next year.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 18, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

this is probably a more realistic trade

and still a good one for us.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Bonderman vs Ian Snell

2006 - 2007



           W   L   GS  CG  IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  ERA   WHiP

Bonderman  25  17  62   0 388.3  407  209 194   41  112 347  4.50  1.34

Ian Snell  23  23  62   1 381.0  396  195 183   51  136 335  4.32  1.40

Snell is almost exactly a year older than Bonderman, but he has more 'controlled' years left on his contract. If the Cardinals are going to deal for one of the two, I'd prefer to go after the less 'injured' Snell. Snell is a groundball machine.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Snell

is a groundball machine? WTF. 46.3 GB% is far far from machine like. Bonderman gets more groundballs.

Also, Snell plays for the Pirates (in division) and isn't exactly a buy low candidate like Bonderman. Bonderman also plays in a way harder division and I think he is the better pitcher, as evidenced by his better periphals and being younger.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 18, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Starting pitching

The #1 Issue STL faces is getting quality starts next year. I am sick and tired of seeing this team down 4 runs in the second inning.

The returning position players are not really a concern to me. It would be nice to have Rolen, Kennedy, and Edmonds step up. Rolen being most important based on his contract. Kennedy being second because he was awful this season. I never did understand or like the signing. Edmonds needs to improve but he only has next year left anyway.

We can address the pitching problems or stupidly say that Lilly and Marquis will revert back to being average pitchers.

I for one am not going to stupidly depend on Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, or Mark Mulder for next year. Those three have not done anything to prove they are dependable.

thanks

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

Am I missing something on Brad Penny?

He's signed for next year and there's an option for 2009, all at reasonable prices (less than $10m). If the Dodgers are contending and not planning to rebuild, why would they trade him?

by sdrone on Sep 18, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions

DTrain

I don't believe that Willis's problems have anything to do with being washed up...I think his mechanics have gone to hell. I know that sounds whacko for a guy with wild and crazy mechanics anyway, but just go with me on this:

When Willis was his most effective, he did his wild and crazy leg kick and whatnot at breakneck speed, hammering through his delivery like a madman. He looked out of control, like he was falling over himself, etc...and he was effective. However, for whatever reason, probably some numbskull pitching coach or maybe Willis thinking it to himself, Willis slowed WAY the heck down and became much more deliberate. I started noticing a slower, more "controlled" Willis last year when he was struggling, and then all of a sudden this year I see him throwing about as slow as I've ever seen. Carlos Gomez from The Hardball Times, a guy with as good an eye for mechanics as anyone I've ever seen, noticed the same thing...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-d-trains-mechanics-a-video-analysis/

Gomez doesn't mind the idea of the Train simplifying his delivery...but the dramatic lack of aggression has absolutely killed Willis. If someone could get him to back to just throwing and not worrying about being slow or controlled, then I would think he could rebound. I don't think Dunc is that guy unfortunatly, b/c a 2005 Dontrelle Willis would be a heck of an addition.

by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 18, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

That may be true

But we already have 3 pitchers who's mechanics have gone to hell and Duncan isn't the type that works well with pitchers like Dontrell.

If you want a reclimation project, please fine a slow, controled, tall and fall guy with a high GB %. Those may turn it around in STL.

Wild, flailing, excitable pitchers come here to die.

by DriverZn on Sep 18, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Every Offseason...

I suggest we pick up Jamey Wright, a 6-5 former first-rounder with a career G:F a wee under two-to-one.

Dude signed a minor-league contract last year and we didn't pick him up.

He looks to me like the perfect Duncan reclamation project: groundball machine who's value is depressed by a cartoonishly bad walk rate.

by liam on Sep 18, 2007 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

He spurned us once before

And you know how this braintrust holds grudges.

He was brought over, iirc, in August of 2002. He and his agent decided he'd be better off elsewhere.

youneverknow

by meat on Sep 18, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Like

Jason Marquis. ;)

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 18, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

whooo just woke up from the game last night

we were sitting all the way up in the 300 section to start the game, once the team went down 11-0 we stepped outside so my pops could smoke and then went back in and basically had our pick of whatever seats we wanted on field level. ended up snagging a few nice ones right by the wall in foul territory of left field, beautiful place to watch the cards score 11 runs and make it a ballgame. i bet whoever had those seats before were PISSED when they got home and caught the score. sadly though, i am 0-2 at new busch, not a good start this season. i blame it on the crappy team more than my bad luck :)

and trade for Burnett and sign Livan Hernandez.

by lopey986 on Sep 18, 2007 1:58 PM EDT reply actions

exciting trade!

i have a preview season book of the 1952 st. louis browns, with pictures of all the players - even action shots of manager marty marion and a great picture of satchel page with all his recorded birthdates!
do you think jocketty would trade me his team for theirs? i would even throw in a bat boy and a locker room attendant!
(good shot of our eddie gaedel and old diz)
can any one guess who their vice president , in charge of player development, was?
right you are! Bill DeWitt!

by dembitz on Sep 18, 2007 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

What are you talking about bro?

It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.

by Glenn Brummer stole home on Sep 18, 2007 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Trade

My only concern with trades is out lack of minor league depth.

I don't thinkt the Cardinals have stocked the minors enough to trade anyone. Atlanta can always pull off outstanding trades because of the minor league deptch. They can afford to trade future major league talent because they have so much of it and they draft well every year. It would be devistating at this point for STL to part ways with potential talent because they don't have much so it appers.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

BP has a good article on our pitching today

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6725

by DriverZn on Sep 18, 2007 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for that link

it was interesting especially since it was somewhat positive. One complaint. Why do people keep referring to Wainwright as a converted reliever in the same way as they refer to Looper? You'd think they'd know that Wainwright has always been groomed to be a starter. Their challenges in being successful starters have been different this year--one was a starter with a brief stint as a reliever due to club injureis and one was a longtime reliever.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

it helps add to the allure

of the converted relievers myth if they have a second reliever to point at. I grind my teeth everytime I read that.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Sep 18, 2007 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

We missed our chance

To pick up a free agent pitcher on the market last year. We should have gotten Meche or Suppan (or both). That we would even mention Hawksworth or Garcia in a trade for a guy like Garland (I know you did not endorse it Larry) is just staggering when there were two pitchers available last off-season that we needed badly. The experiment failed, and Thompson did not successfully replace Suppan, as was suggested by many posters to this site in December 2006. What a stupid way to defend our title and plan for the future.

It is highly doubtful that we will acquire a meaningful difference maker in the rotation for next year without seriously sacrificing our team in another area. Morris is a possibility, but not a meaningful difference maker anymore.

There was plenty of money to do this last year and more players to get.

by age3in82 on Sep 18, 2007 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

Nah

We missed our chance two years ago by not signing Burnett (although the Blue Jays gave him a silly contract with the opt-out).

Soup and Meche were both well over-payed. The Royals took a big gamble and it's paying off well.

A life-long Mariners fan I'm friends with thinks the only difference between Pineiro and Meche is that Pineiro's slightly more consistent. I haven't ever seen Meche pitch. Aside from what I can read in his stat line, I don't know how he's getting guys out. It's hard to say in retrospect that we should have matched the Royal's bet on Meche. It's hard to say he'll be worth his contract the next 4 years.

(I'd rather have Burnett for the same money, though.)

by liam on Sep 18, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Meche is over paid because he was the

ONE pitcher KC wanted. They had to pay a premium to get him to come to KC, an offer he couldn't refuse you might say. It was a big risk gutsy move on the Royals part--they WANTED a youngish veteran to build their young pitching staff around. It has worked well for them, at least this year. I don't know if the deal is worth it over the long haul, but so far they have gotten exactly what they wanted, and they have some youngsters coming behind him that will benefit from Meche being there.

by jillsinmo on Sep 18, 2007 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeff Suppan makes $12 M

in each of 2009 and 2010. That would have been a very stupid move.

I honestly believe Joel Piniero will out pitch Jeff Suppan from here on out.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Even this year

Suppan wouldn't have helped us that much. Early on when he was pitching well, we had terrible run support. I don't think we would have given him enough to win. And then he began to tumble when we started to heat up. Again, he wouldn't have helped us that much. He's been better recently, but he's still pitching so-so.

I like Suppan personally. But I don't think he was ever that good of a pitcher. His numbers fluctuate all over the place during the year. And he's just going to get older.

I agree that Piniero is a better bet.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

what about japan...

Koji Uehara, who dominated in the WBC, is available after this season. He'd be a free agent, so we wouldn't have to do the posting thing, and has said he wants to pitch in the US. He might be worth taking a flyer on...

more:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Koji_Uehara

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 18, 2007 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

and one more

from mlbtraderumors:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/koji_uehara/index.html

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 18, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

More Japanese Pitchers

Expected to consider MLB a possibility.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHSP, 32 years old, no posting fee required.

Kazumi Saito, RHSP, 29 years old, expected to be posted.

Hitoki Iwase, LHRP, 32 years old, worked as a closer in japan, does not require posting fee.

Masahide Kobayash, RHRP, 33 years old, also worked as a closer and is renowned for his consistency. Does not require a posting fee.

Maybe of most interest to the cardinals is Japanese SS Tomohiro Nioka. He might be the best Free agent shortstop available, also claimed to be versatile around the field. Here's a small bio.

http://drbaseball.wordpress.com/2007/07/30/underrated-players-tomohiro-nioka/

"Accidents happen both ways" Mike Shannon

by Some witty name on Sep 18, 2007 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Matt Morris

Please god, don't allow the Cardinals to sign Matt Morris! he is past his prime and there is no reason to pay a guy $12 Million to have an ERA in the high 4's/low 5's.

I appreciate what Matty Mo did in the past but that is the past,just let it go. The Cardinals need to get younger with pitching not older.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 3:40 PM EDT reply actions

one place to look...

the dodgers, they have a lot of money wrapped up in starting pitching, and somebody has to get the boot when clayton kershaw and/or scott elbert come as soon as next year.
'08 Contracts
Brad Penny $8.5M
Jason Schmidt $12M
Derek Lowe $10
Chad Billingsley 400k
Esteban Loaiza $7M
Randy Wolf (Club Option for '08)

Out of those, I would pursue Lowe, even though the price tag (10 mil) is high. He's made at least 32 starts every year since Boston made him a starter in 2002 and is a groundball machine who is about as consistent as you can get. Check this out, since he's been in LA:

ERA IP K BB ERA+
'05 3.61 222 146 55 112
'06 3.63 218 123 55 121
'07 3.71 189 135 54 117

I think he's truly underrated and hopefully Colletti could make a dumb move and shop him. Speaking of the Dodgers, this offseason they are gonna kiss this guy goodbye:
2007
FIP: 3.85
K/BB: 3.14
IP: 113
'07 Contract: 2.9M

Mark Hendrickson owns an ugly ERA of 5.23 but has gotten horribly unlucky (63% LOB) and got bumped from the Dodgers rotation late this year. Kinda a shame because it could have been his best year. He improved greatly this year with a 6.9K/G (Up from 5.5 in 06 and 4.2 in '05) and lowered his walks to 2.2/g (from 3.3 in '06) His value couldn't be lower and should not be too pricey even in today's free agent market.

by Bullet Bob Gibson on Sep 18, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

2008

Here is how I have a possible offseason playing out:

Duncan+something for Bonderman+something (the somethings could be nothing, could be cash, could be prospects but the heart of the deal is the named players)

Pick up Pineiro's option (assume he picks it up as well)

Resign Russ Springer and pick up Bennett's and Izzy's options

Trade for Renteria from Braves for something (not sure what Braves need)

Rotation:
Wainwright
Bonderman
Pineiro
Looper
Mulder

C: Molina
1B: Pujols
2B: Kennedy
3B: Rolen
SS: Renteria
LF: Schumaker/Ludwick
CF: Edmonds
RF: Ankiel

Bench:
MIF: Ryan
CIF: Spiezio
OF: Ludwick/Schumaker
OF: Mather/JRod/Rasmus(depends on ST)
C: Bennett

Bullpen:
Izzy
Franklin
Springer
Kinney
Perez
Flores
Johnson

DL: Carp, Encarnacion

Not all of those moves are things I agree with necessarily they are just things I think could or probably will happen. I hope we sign a better LF if we trade off Duncan but the active roster listed above would cost 85.45M and counting the two DL members it is 102.45. (Bonderman has 8.5M due next year and is signed for 12.5 till 2010 after that) If insurance covers the Carp contract then that will give them some breathing room and if Juan is able to play that should give them another outfielder (moving Ankiel to LF). (BTW in terms of money rotation costs 25, lineup 41, bench 4.7, bullpen 14.75 and DL 17, I assumed 1M for Yadi, 2M for Ankiel and .5M for all low salary players, I also assumed 2M for Springer since that is what he will be making this year if you count all the incentives he has earned or will earn, lastly Renteria is only counted as 1M since Boston is still paying Atlanta 8M of his 08 salary)

2008 would thus become a rebuilding season, leaving us with a 2009 staff that will have lots of room for improvement and hopefully 3-4 definite starters (Wainwright, Carp, Bond, and maybe Mulder).

Does anyone think anything I put in there is unrealistic? Is it too optimistic or pessimistic? Any other comments?

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 4:15 PM EDT reply actions

Robertson

If as posted above the Tigers would prefer to trade Robertson then we would get an arbitration eligble player that is making about 3.26M this season and would probably get more than that in arbitration next time but that would save about 5M off Bonderman if it stayed the same. Would be interesting to do that as well.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

can we trust Ankiel?

I sure would hate to trade Duncan and his 30 HR potential based on the assumption that suddenly Ankiel has more mental make-up than he has exhibited in the past.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Ankiel

I don't trust Ankiel but as I said I think this is what could happen, if the team decides not to trust Ankiel then they could try to use Rasmus early if Ankiel flames out or they could turn to one of the others to play everyday. I am not sure who we could sign/trade for the OF with Juan on the DL and as much as I want to keep Duncan in the lineup I think the rotation help is more important at this point.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

He's at least moving in the right direction

He's making some great plays in the field that show real confidence, he's making contact with balls again and getting some singles (even if they are dribblers), he's regaining plate discipline, and he's smiling more when he plays.

And he's even cracking a few jokes with the press--about the wound on his arm that was reopened with that great sliding catch, he quipped to a reporter: "It's the gift that just keeps giving."

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

ya he has responded so well to the HGH stories

but maybe hes starting to come out of that funk...Even without the story how could you trade a guy you have seen a yr and a half of that looks solid to keep a guy youve seen 2 months of?

07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap

by punchinjudy on Sep 18, 2007 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I like your GM moves

but I'd put Kennedy on the bench and try Ryan as an everyday player. Kennedy always looks droopy (sp?) out there.

Because we can't count on Mulder, I think I would condition Welleymeyer to be a starter next year as an insurance policy (or condition both Welleymeyer and Thompson in case of complete disaster).

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Kennedy

As long as LaRussa is here I expect Kennedy to start, also I think Kennedy just had a bad year and will rebound next season. I agree that Thompson, Reyes, Wellemeyer or whoever we keep in our minor league system should be ready to start just in case.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Trade Possibilities

AJ Burnett has terrible mechanics, which are the root cause of his injury problems, and should be avoided. He has the same basic mechanical flaws as Mark Prior, Jeremy Bonderman, and Anthony Reyes.

Sonnanstine is also an accident waiting to happen.

I hope we trade Reyes for someone with better mechanics (e.g. no Mark Prior clones).

I have questions about the health of the shoulders of both Peavy and Santana. Dontrelle also makes me nervous.

I like...

Penny
Morris
Garland
Lowe
Robertson

...because they all have solid mechanics.

by thepainguy on Sep 18, 2007 4:27 PM EDT reply actions

Penny/Garland

I like the following pitchers in order

Penny
Garland
Lowe
Robertson
Morris (way too expensive for what he offers)

I don't understand all these people banking on Mulder pitching next year. As of now I say assume Mulder, Reyes, Wells as combining to win 13 games max. If I were the Cardinals I would make moves assuming all three will not pitch well next year.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Mulder

Assume Reyes won't pitch for the Cards to start the season at a minimum and assume Wells is gone completely. Mulder on the other hand is under a big contract and I will assume that because of that he will be in the rotation in the spring and based on that he will either have to call it quits or he will make the rotation out of camp.

by StLHugo on Sep 18, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Muler

I hate to be negative and I nothing would make me happier than being completely wrong but Mulder just does not look right.

Now it seems he has had enough throwing/minor league starts/major league starts to get some sort of reading on the guy. Well my reading is he has been flat out bad.

I don't know what this latest set back will be but it does not sound good. I find it hard to imagine it is just fatigue.

I hope Mulder can prove me wrong but I have not seen anything positive. The only thing that made me happy was Mulder actually started throwing off speed pitches rather than just spotting his fastball.

I would have thought someone like Mulder should be albe to bounce back from shoulder surgery considering he was a soft tossing lefty to begin with. I figured it would not be hard for him to adjust.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

except he supposedly messed up his mechanics

because he played too long while he was injured. That may still be one of his big problems. He may not have his mechanics back because his good mechanics are a faint memory and it's going to take time to reconstruct them.

As long as he didn't hurt himself, I'm glad he started a few times so he knows how much work he has ahead of himself during the offseason. He's a competitor and used to success. I'm sure he doesn't want to humiliate himself next year, let alone ruin his career.

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

can you

explain to me how Sonnanstine is an accident waiting to happen. Also just for fun Sonnanstine has pitched in at least 180 innings every year since 2004. I guess he has just been lucky the past 4 seasons.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 18, 2007 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Andy Sonnanstine

Andy Sonnanstine made his ML debut on June 5, 2007.

I give him 1 to 2 years before his shoulder starts to fall apart like Cole Hamels'.

by thepainguy on Sep 18, 2007 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

I know when he made his debut. He hasn't been injured ever in his professional career, and your saying his shoulder will fall apart like Cole Hamels. Really just sounds like your throwing crap out there and don't know what you're talking about. How does a guys have bad mechanics and not get injured in 4 straight seasons pitching over 180 innings each year?

By the way, Cole Hamels is quite good as you've realize tonight.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 18, 2007 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

What's your expertise on mechanics?

Penny and Morris have both dealt with serious injuries in the past.

Burnett's injury this season was directly related to his coach allowing him to throw too many pitches in consecutive games. This wasn't an issue of mechanics or Burnett being injury prone it was bad managerial skills. He threw 127, 118 & 131 pitches in three consecutive games before he was injured. It's not hard to connect those dots.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Sep 18, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Burnett

I consult at the ML level.

While Burnett's abuse certainly didn't help him, the root cause of his problems is his poor mechanics. Particularly his arm action.

by thepainguy on Sep 18, 2007 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate it

when people weigh in with actual expertise and short-circuit the discussion.

Your site is very interesting. You do a nice job of illustrating your points and explaining what you observe.

by Youneverknow on Sep 18, 2007 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions

This all assumes there's a perfect

set of mechanics and that some pitchers really can avoid long-term injury. You can point to "root causes" but when a pitcher is asked to throw 120+ pitches 3 outings in a row, their arm is going to fall off.

Burnett may not have good mechanics but you'll have to point me to specific evidence that says "doing X causes Y injury" before I just accept the byline of "I consult". I don't say that too be derogatory -- just a healthy skeptic. Burnett was obviously and blatantly mismanaged this season (never getting a day off, pitch counts, etc) and that seems much more causal than the elusive "bad mechanics" label for his injury.

(Also, I obviously haven't had time to peruse your entire site so I'm largely unfamiliar with your work outside of the last 25 minutes I spent bouncing around your site.)

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Sep 18, 2007 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Burnett Mechanics

If you watch AJ pitch you will note two things that generally cause arm problems.

his arm tends to lag behind his body.
he overthrows

#1 will put a lot of stress on your elbow. You will note how far his arm lags behind when he strides. This puts a lot of stress on ones elbow and shoulder. A pitcher has to throw harder/put more stress on his arm to have his arm catch up to his body. You can see action shots and tell that on action shots his arm is clearly too far behind his body at times.

#2 will put stress on your shoulder. Stress that is not needed as a pitcher strains his shoulder when he throws. Burnett has a good fastball and tends to overthrow at times. This is just more stress.

When you mix high pitch count with poor mechanics you tend to have probelms. His problems arise late in games beacuse as you wear out your mechanics tend to diminish. AJ does not have consistently good mechanics to begin with so when he gets tired they tend to get worse and increase his chance of injury. He is 30 and the chance of his mechanics improving much are not very good.

He is an effective pitcher but one must consider what they expect to get from him. He is probably not going to take the mound 30 times a year for you with any consistency. He will miss a few starts but may not go to the DL. But I assume he would miss some starts with sore elbow/shoulder.

thanks

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Burnett's Mechanics

Burnett's biggest problem is his arm action. I discussed this a couple days ago in my blog.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ThePitchingMechanic/Archive/ThePitchingMechani c_200709.html

by thepainguy on Sep 18, 2007 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish...

I wish St. Louis could call 2008 a rebuilding year, and do things that plan for 2009 and beyond. As Bernie said yesterday after the game, since the start of last year, we are a losing team. We don't need patches, we need to rebuild.

We aren't the Yankees, we cannot be in the playoffs every year.

I wish Albert could just take 4 balls and walk down the first base without the grand bat tossing.

by redbird2006in on Sep 18, 2007 5:10 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah

how dare he be fired up about his team coming back from being down 11-0.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I actually liked that he did that.

by saladdays on Sep 18, 2007 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Albert

There are time I wish Albert would just run and quit watching things, but last night I saw it more of a reaction to working the count and getting on base. He was getting excited for setting the tables for Ludwick.

At least we don't have to watch Alfonso Soriano every day. That guy bothers the heck out of me!! If anyone listens to 670 the score on Monday 4-6 or Thursday 1-2 you will listen to Steve Stone. He absolutely can't stand Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez has rubbed Stone the wrong way a few times this year. Steve Stone in my opinion is the best baseball guy to listen to. He is outstanding. If you can pick up 670 the Score and you call yourself a baseball fan you must listen to Steve Stone. He talks Cubs and Sox, mostly Cubs this year because most Sox fans have quit caring about the season. But Stone always gives the Cards props and has a great deal of respect for Tony Larussa & Bobby Cox as he always usese those two as examples when he dogs on the Cubbies. It is funny!! People complain about TLR but they don't realize how good we have it.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 6:10 PM EDT reply actions

Lineup

Taguchi 7
Ryan 6
AP 3
Spiezio 5
Ankiel 8
Molina 2
Schumaker 9
Wellemeyer 1
Barden 4

per Bernie.

Tony also said that Brendan Ryan had 'alot to prove' in Spring Training '08. I think it's sweet that Tony cares what Oquendo is going to do with his infield next year.

Cause Tony still should be fired.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 18, 2007 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

Ryan

I think that Tony has been showing what he thinks of Brendan Ryan. He keeps putting him in the Line up. I believe Tony just does not want Ryan to get lazy. I think Brenda does have a lot of room to improve. There is no untruth to Tony's statement. I believe Tony like Ryan, and just wants the kid to work hard durning winter ball. He wants Brendan to keep the fire.

I would like to see Tony around a few more years.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 18, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Yay, Barden

A reason to watch.

by DriverZn on Sep 18, 2007 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions

double yay

by nycardfan on Sep 18, 2007 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

should doe snot equal will

but i think with all the talk of rebuild, even though you could say he kinda did it b4 i dont think hes the righ one to do it again.

Managerial canidates if it opens

-Joe girardi- you know his name will come up
-the secret weapon- i wouldnt mind seeing it..y not?
-Dusty Baker- Um no thanks but hes available so his name would float.
-Bobby Valentine- Maybe he returns from over seas?
-Ozzie guillen? jk

Ok so none of those names i like, but you know if they have coached b4 and a job opens names will float..I'd go with Jose myself.

07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap

by punchinjudy on Sep 18, 2007 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Not trying to pick on you but

DOE SNOT?!

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 18, 2007 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

ok so i had a inadvertant space

sorry was multi tasking..watching my one yr old at the same time. I need to spell check.

ok im weird but am i the only one that sometimes like i have to rush to make a point before others do..ok so it might just be me..not that my points are great but its like oo i need to post this b4 i forget or something or someone posts it..

07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap

by punchinjudy on Sep 18, 2007 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions