My New Slant on Juan
I've pretty much given up trying to explain my distemper with Encarnacion to his defenders. I've even admitted that the uneasiness I have is non-logical, or a-logical, whichever fits, and that is it subjective. But my brain remains restless about it. Maybe from guilt. So... I keep trying to explain it to myself.
While watching a little piece on ESPN about the Chicago Bears' quarterback (and his performance in a pre-season game tonight) another idea struck me. One of the commentators concluded the piece by saying "you fans in Chicago,.. enjoy the roller-coaster ride again this year."
I'm not much of a football fan, and anyway I probably don't need to layer the analogy for you folks. But it was a 'bingo' moment for my brain.
It is that inexplicable INCONSISTENCY that Juan brings to the field. As I observe him, anyway. {{ like the Bears QB... will do something really neat and then botch something even a rookie QB shouldn't }}
Maybe I've made no progress on my problem tho. Maybe it is still "how I see it." But I can't shake my desire that Juan not be a Cardinal.
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The debate so far:
His defense is lacadaisical, and he never looks like he is "hustling". His EQA numbers are around "replacement level" (at least on the cards where we have a dearth of fill in outfielders...).
However, the defenders are also right. We got what we payed for... His career numbers are almost identical to his current year, his defense has never been extraordinary. There are probably worse players getting paid more money...
So it's really just kind of a pessimist/optimist debate. You could look at our team, and say "Jezz, why did we pay 5 million to run that piece of junk out there everyday, when we could've run out Ankiel/Duncan/Taguchi/Spizeo/Schumaker etc." Or you could say, "Wow, I'm glad Juan is at least consistent with his career numbers, and isn't pulling a (insert ridiculously underperfoming/overpaid player, aka Johnny Damon, Julio Lugo, Jermaine Dye, Garret Anderson, Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre... you get the point )" Oh and btw, that list came only from the first few teams, I'm sure there are other "gems" out there...
So in conclusion, yeah I think it is a perspective issue. And while possibly his day-to-day consistency (that sounds like a Joe Morganism if there ever was one) may not be great, his year to year stats have been consistent, which makes him a unique asset in times when so so many highly played "stars" are just complete busts...
by duncansarmy on Aug 21, 2007 2:29 AM EDT reply actions
there's no more inconsistent player
today, in his dotage, edmonds' disappearances are longer, his periods of potency shorter. he's the classic hot-cold guy, but not many people ever hated him for it.
just remember......
i don't have a problem with the guy. yeah, he does some dumb stuff sometimes, but not nearly as much as his critics make it out to be. i could go on about this, but just remember brian giles.
but thats the thing......
by Willie51 on Aug 21, 2007 7:51 AM EDT reply actions
Inning Ending Double Play Leaders
Molina - 8 (103)
Rolen - 7 (134)
Kennedy - 7 (107)
Miles - 6 (106)
Juan - 6 (87)
The mind remembers what you you want it to.
by Just Rope Ball on Aug 21, 2007 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, here are the splits
by Just Rope Ball on Aug 21, 2007 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
eh?
by duncansarmy on Aug 21, 2007 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
by Just Rope Ball on Aug 21, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Wait wait wait...
Molina fits into that category also, he is the freaking catcher, AND he's still a better hitter than Juan.
Finally, Rolen is having one of the worst year's of his illustrious career, (and people get pretty pissed about that on the Msg Boards also) and still hitting about the same as Juan.
Finally, by selecting the GIDP stat you've chosen one of the few splits where Juan and Pujols might match up, and yet even while carrying probably 75 extra pounds of bulk, AP still grounds into less double plays (when compared to AB's) then Juan...
by duncansarmy on Aug 21, 2007 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You said finally twice
;P
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
doh...
by duncansarmy on Aug 21, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
I wasn't meaning to say that I or others like Kennedy or Miles style (even though I actually did), and I expect Molina to hit into DP being so slow, but I know a lot of people, myself included, who are disillusioned about a particular players ability because of how we perceive they play the game.
For reference, Jimmy has 4 in 96 and Duncan has 2 in 132 but with 37 SO.
I'm not really a Juan supporter, we knew we would get average production from and average player, but the irrational hatred toward him doesn't make any sense to me. I don't like paying him for what he does, I would love to unload him, but it seems like some focus on the bad and erase the good from memory.
by Just Rope Ball on Aug 21, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
We can agree on that...
Yes, Juan isn't Rick "Wind beneath my wings" Ankiel, (or maybe Rick "Flash in the Pan" Ankiel... time will tell), but he also isn't Carlos "15 million for essentially Juan Encarnacion" Delgado
The important stat's in defense of Juan are really his career vs. year averages, and when you look at those you can't help but say "We got what we payed for..."
Oh but seriously, how do Met's fan's still have hair with CarlosD playing for them...
by duncansarmy on Aug 21, 2007 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I know what you mean -
Dude, you just have to let it go!
Just decide for a week that you'll direct your attention to some other players. The first couple of days of ignoring Juan will be the hardest, but soon he'll be just another blip on the edge of your radar screen.
well said..
Enough!
Since so many of you are so irked by that last flub in the field that you fail to see the season as a whole, let me refresh your memories and take you through the glory and triumph that is Juan. Without him, we would be fighting Houston for 4th place. My research even surprised me.
Tie game w/ cincy, 6th inning, Juan homers to put them up for good, 3-2.
Juan offers a game-changing 3-run homer to put the cardinals up for good against philly, 4-1.
Same Ari series - Juan took care of all of the scoring in this one - 3 run homer.
Remember that crazy 5th inning vs. San Diego? Juan delivered the go ahead rbi.
I said I had "felt" this about Juan. These are types of performances that are hard to measure with "clutch" meters and "win shares", but only result from watching this team perform on an everyday basis (as I have). It is clear from above that Juan has delivered GAME-CHANGING hits that have resulted in several victories. Sure his defense could be better, but look at these hits!
One more thing
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
And he is certtainly
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
He's batting .285 w/Men on with 10 DPs
I watched part of that Bears game and I said to a friend: "Ya know, the Bears have such a good team but yet they have this terrible quarterback. They've got 2 better QBs sitting the bench but they keep using this guy who can't even take a snap! Why do teams do this? It's almost like they want to have a major flaw."
That's how I see the Cardinals. With Ankiel and Duncan on the bench, it's almost like Tony had to wait until we sucked until the brink to bench Juan and bring up Ankiel.
The difference is night and day with those two.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow
My point is you cannot capture these kinds of contributions from a ".285 with men on" stat (which isn't THAT bad, btw).
His contributions are game-specific. And he has single-handedly offered contribuitions that have made the difference between winning and losing at least 8 times in just over 2 months.
Some people just don't want to see it.
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
And if I posted 15 or 20 game logs
Or how about Saturday's game? Looking at the game log, Cardinals had runners at 1st and 2nd and 1 out. Juan gets a basehit there and it is 1-0 Cardinals early, runners at 1st and 3rd, and Rolen is lifting one of his 4 flyballs to RF away from making it 2-0.
Instead, he hits into an inning ending DP.
The defenders will later say, "Well, Juan went 2 for 3 with a HR!". Yes, he did. But that was his 'break even' moment. That's what Juan is all about. He's about just breaking even to balance out the mistake he made earlier. Like the Padres game with the error in RF. He boots that ball, they score a run. He then hits a double off the wall to drive in a run.
Congratulations, you've just even'd out the game. It's his lack of upside that brings the most ire. That and his inability to play any ball that bounces in the outfield.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
see my challenge
It's not even close.
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll see the challenge
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Are you talking about the
In any case, you cannot act as if a Stinnet single would have happened IF there were runners on. Pitchers pitch hitters according to the situation (i.e. are there or aren't there runners on)
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
The first game you cite
St. Louis - Top of 6th Score
Aaron Cook pitching for Colorado
A Miles grounded out to shortstop.
S Taguchi walked.
S Spiezio flied out to center.
J Edmonds singled to left, S Taguchi to 2nd.
S Rolen singled to shallow left, S Taguchi to 3rd, J Edmonds to 2nd.
J Encarnacion doubled to deep right center, S Taguchi, J Edmonds and S Rolen scored.
G Bennett singled to center, J Encarnacion scored.
A Kennedy flied out to left.
The Cardinals also scored 7 runs in that game. This is why the 'Game Winning RBI' stat was dropped by MLB.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
whatever
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Single-Handedly?
It's undeniable that Juan has had some big hits (most people have...) but the statistical evidence indicates that he is basically consistent with career averages in most AB's, RISP or no RISP...
by duncansarmy on Aug 21, 2007 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair point
As some stats below show (e.g. 2-out RISP) most people DO NOT have this many CRUCIAL singles (or homers) at opportune times. Remember - this is in just over 2 months of work. It's really remarkable.
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Really
The real disappointment for me this season has been Kennedy.
by rockin redbird on Aug 21, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
With Men on Base
Duncan - 277, 390, 601
Ludwick - 250, 337, 424
Edmonds - 237, 318, 333
If your complaining about Juan, whats so good about Edmonds?
by Just Rope Ball on Aug 21, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Nothing, really
Instead, we keep setting the bar lower in defense of Juan. Players like Edmonds and Rolen are having terrible offensive years but we AREN'T going to upgrade at either of those positions. We can, however, upgrade at the corner OF position and luckily we have (Ankiel).
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say he was better
by Just Rope Ball on Aug 21, 2007 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
They are part of the problem as well
Edmonds is clearly a better defender than Juan. Hustle and grit have nothing to do with it. No one is more half assed than Edmonds in the outfield, yet he's still a better fly catcher than DoubleintoTriple out there.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoa, hold on ...
by MdRedbirdFreak on Aug 21, 2007 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
WPA agrees with Mass....
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Cardinals
Encarnacion is second on the team behind Albert in Win Probability Added, meaning that his hits have been more important to deciding the outcome of games than everyone on the team except Pujols....
Nice essay about WPA here..
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/
Gotta agree with our esteemed colleague from the great state of Massachusettes...
Boomer.
Identify who's who
Anyway, on to the real point:
.271 BA, 21 HR, 54 RBI, .340 OBP
.249 BA, 11 HR, 49 RBI, .304 OBP
.278 BA, 19 HR, 79 RBI, .317 OBP
.289 BA, 15 HR, 52 RBI, .384 OBP
.263 BA, 29 HR, 89 RBI, .385 OBP
.257 BA, 19 HR, 70 RBI, .350 OBP
The first is Reggie in his last season as a Cardinal. He made $4M that year.
The second is Reggie in his first year with Kansas City, where he made $5M.
The third is Juan's line from last year. He made $3.5M, less than either of Reggie's salaries.
The 4th is Walker during his last season. Moderately better average and on-base, but lower HR and RBI, for the bargain price of $12.6M a year(granted, I think some of this was paid by Colorado)
The last two are Jimmy during 2005 and 2006(the year before Juan and the first year with Juan). Overall better numbers in 2005, but we paid him 10.3M. His 2006 numbers are pretty comparable overall to Juan's usual line, and he made $12.1M
Now, for career Range Factors(this comparison should be decent, since they're all outfielders, although Jimmy might benefit from being in CF)
Jimmy - 2.66
Juan - 1.99
Larry - 2.21
Reggie - 1.99
So, as we probably would have guessed, Jimmy's got the best range(or possibly he benefits from being in CF, but I think we'll all agree he's probably still got the best range), Larry is 2nd, but Juan vs. Reggie are dead even.
If, as HL said, Juan was brought in to replace one of the departed players, then he's pretty adequately doing that for Reggie.
But we all liked Reggie, because he was always smiling and it seemed like he was putting forth full effort. And most of us would be happy to see Juan's salary dumped(some of us more than others).
As many people on here are pointing out, most of this is us seeing what we WANT to see out of Juan, not seeing what he actually is.
I understand the desire to see players who are going balls to the wall on every play. Maximum effort is what we want to teach our kids in all aspects of life, and its one of the easiest lessons to teach through sports. Furthermore, when you have players like David Eckstein who nearly sprint to first on walks, or when you have players like Albert Pujols who puts his full physical and mental abilities into making himself the best player offensively and defensively he can be, it's easy. Or even talking about Ankiel, someone who faced adversity and overcame it through hard work and an incredible amount of determination.
That's why it's easy to look at Juan, who looks complacent and lackadaisical most of the time, and not be a fan of his.
Question his effort all you want, and I won't fight you, but if you say he's a complete bum and he's a poor replacement for Reggie Sanders(production-wise), then the numbers, at least on some level, show that on many levels, you're wrong.
In fairness to Sanders
I know it's always a 'what if' game when it comes to these sort of things, but had Reggie Sanders not snapped his leg, he was on pace for:
140 Games
454 ABs
32 HRs
78 RBIs
.281 BA
.897 OPS
Should we lower our expectations of Juan because Reggie missed most a third of the season with a broken leg?
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll cherry pick another stat
Juan - 286, 324, 429
Pujols - 261, 528, 565
Duncan - 243, 333, 432
Edmonds - 219, 324, 313
Ludwick - 172, 314, 345
by Just Rope Ball on Aug 21, 2007 10:23 AM EDT reply actions
that's a very telling stat
even though juan's OBP in those situations is lower (.500+ for AP, wow!), it's the hits that really matter and the average shows that juan is getting those hits (and RBIs) at a higher pace than even pujols.
by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 21, 2007 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
look
It's all about sample size . . .
I think my main beef with Juan is that when I picture an outfielder, I picture somebody hustling to cover all areas of their field. Consider Chris Duncan, he's not that great, but you can tell that he works his ass off to get to every ball. If Juan Enc played like that, I'd love to have him on my team, but for now Ankiel simply looks like he wants it more.
You, my man,
"I think my main beef with Juan is that when I picture an outfielder, I picture somebody hustling to cover all areas of their field. Consider Chris Duncan, he's not that great, but you can tell that he works his ass off to get to every ball. If Juan Enc played like that, I'd love to have him on my team, but for now Ankiel simply looks like he wants it more."
have proved Cardsfaninmass' and my point.
Who cares if he's good and produces. If he doesn't look like he hustles, then dump him.
what he could
How about WPA?
He's 2nd on the team behind El Hombre.
by martin on Aug 21, 2007 11:37 AM EDT reply actions
Rebuttal: Win Shares
... Juan ranks 12th on the team, below Aaron Miles and Scott Spezio.
I believe that Win Shares look more at aggregate stats, and determine how many wins a team should get based on its players' individual numbers, while Win Probability Added actually filters through the game logs and determines a player's "clutchiness" - how much their at bats actually influenced the outcomes of games. I don't believe either reflects on defensive ability. Or perhaps WPA assigns defensive blunders like misplaying fly balls into triples to "team" rather than the player, but I could be wrong.
One way to explain the discrepancy here is to say that Juan is actually getting his hits in key situations, but his overall production just isn't that great. However, THT's "clutch" batting stats say just the opposite.
It appears even statisticians can't figure out what they think of Juan.
Exactly my point on stats -
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, someone can
Also, Juan is sitting pretty in the #4 spot.
That's another problem with Juan. When he returned from the DL, he occupied a spot that should have been given to Chris Duncan for much of the season.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm done trying to convince you Hardcore
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
and you are an apologist
No worries.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Could his lower "Win Share"
by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Juan's D is pretty good..
Boomer.
Actually, his RZR of .864
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He also has the 3rd highest
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Hardcore
Thats my take
That IS what I'm saying
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Well Kind of:
by duncansarmy on Aug 21, 2007 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
You know what's funny?
the way he talks is unclear
by kyle man on Aug 25, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks to all...
Maybe I am progressing on the road to chilling out. One bottom line is that MY team, the Cardinals, employ 25 men (players) at a time... and there is no way I can like them all equally.
Finally... reading through the thread reminded me of an anecdote about my mother. It's fair to say that she had no great love for George Hendrick (for many Encarnacion-esque reasons) BUT... when he stepped to the plate on Tv, she would say, "c'mon Gee-o."
by CurtFlood on Aug 21, 2007 9:02 PM EDT reply actions
Great conclusion
by nycardfan on Aug 22, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

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