This Bud's for you Izzy
by azruavatar on Jul 2, 2007 8:00 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printazruavatar here; I'll be filling in for lboros today as he's on a well deserved vacation.
It was nice to see the offense pick up the pitching yesterday. The offense had scored a measly 12 runs in the last six games dating back to Saturday the 23rd (when they scored 8). Yesterday's game seemed to last forever in my mind. I left right before Ludwick's homer in the 4th to head for the gym and returned in time to cringe at Randy Flores' entrance into a 4-run game. Everytime I looked up at the gym it seemed like another baseball was flying out of that bandbox of a ballpark.
Can we officially induct Maroth as a Cardinal now? After that 3IP, 5 ER outing he should feel right at home with Wells, Wellemeyer and Reyes. I was somewhat surprised that he got pulled in the 4th since he was at 66 pitches but he didn't appear to be getting it done. Another 6 innings for a bullpen that's pitched far too many this year.
Which serves as a nice segue to what I really want to talk about this morning. We've gotten some really good performances from our bullpen so far this season. We've also got some less than stellar contributors (I'm looking at you Flores) but let's try and stay positive. Isringhausen looks reborn and Ryan Franklin looks like an offseason steal. After last year watching Izzy go out to the mound repeatedly last year when he looked hurt, it's nice to see the cutter cut, the fastball go fast and the curveball buckle some knees like it used too. Ahh the wonders of a rebuilt hip. With Troy Percival in the fold, suddenly the right-side of the bullpen looks dominant.
| Pitcher | IP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | GO/AO | ERA | ERA+ | |||||||
| Izzy | 32.3 | 4.45 | 3.07 | 7.24 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 251 | |||||||
| Franklin | 40.0 | 6.75 | 0.68 | 3.15 | 1.32 | 1.35 | 310 | |||||||
| Springer | 29.1 | 6.49 | 3.40 | 11.44 | 0.31 | 3.07 | 136 |
Had anyone else realized how many strikeouts Springer was getting? Ya, me neither. I don't know where Ryan Franklin learned to pitch like this and he's a great candidate to regress to the mean but still he's been lights out thus far. I'll go ahead and point out the elephant in the room that Ryan Franklin has tested positive for banned substances in the past.
I'll admit that I panned both the Springer and Franklin signing when they happened. Not for the dollars they signed for but because it signified, imo, a reluctance to test out some younger arms from the minors. If Springer and Franklin keep up these performances, well I'll gladly eat crow on that. And if the Cardinals decide they are out of the race, both of these middle relievers might be nice candidates to bring back some minor prospects from a team looking for middle relief help (Cleveland perhaps?).
The Troy Percival pickup was one of those great in season additions that costs no prospects and very little money. After seeing him in his return to the big leagues, it looks like this one might pay off (unlike the woeful Tomo Ohka). I wonder if La Russa just falls asleep with a big grin on his face having two proven closers to go to in his pen. Izzy's still his man but I fully expect to see Percival on a regular basis in the late innings this season (provided his arm holds up).
Percival's last year with the Angels was at age 34 which tracks nicely with Izzy's 2007 at age 34. Percival spent longer with the Angels than Izzy has been in STL before being replaced by Francisco Rodriguez and then moving on to Detroit in an injury marred 2005. Izzy was 29 in 2002 when he joined the Cardinals, so let's compare Izzy and Percival ages 29-34.
| Year | IP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | GO/AO | ERA | ERA+ | |||||||||
| Izzy | 2002 | 65.1 | 6.34 | 2.48 | 9.37 | 1.24 | 2.48 | 158 | ||||||||
| 2003 | 42.0 | 6.64 | 3.86 | 8.79 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 176 | |||||||||
| 2004 | 75.1 | 6.57 | 2.75 | 8.49 | 1.26 | 2.87 | 146 | |||||||||
| 2005 | 59.0 | 6.56 | 4.12 | 7.78 | 1.67 | 2.14 | 200 | |||||||||
| 2006 | 58.1 | 7.26 | 5.87 | 8.03 | 1.21 | 3.55 | 124 | |||||||||
| 2007 | 32.1 | 4.46 | 3.07 | 7.24 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 251 | |||||||||
| Percival | 1999 | 57.0 | 6.00 | 3.47 | 9.16 | 0.56 | 3.79 | 129 | ||||||||
| 2000 | 50.0 | 7.56 | 5.40 | 8.82 | 0.60 | 4.50 | 110 | |||||||||
| 2001 | 57.2 | 6.08 | 2.81 | 11.07 | 0.70 | 2.65 | 179 | |||||||||
| 2002 | 56.1 | 6.07 | 4.00 | 10.87 | 0.41 | 1.92 | 226 | |||||||||
| 2003 | 49.1 | 6.02 | 4.20 | 8.76 | 0.35 | 3.47 | 123 | |||||||||
| 2004 | 49.2 | 7.79 | 3.44 | 5.98 | 0.54 | 2.90 | 158 |
Two pitchers produced very good results with totally different styles. Percival is a flyball pitcher; no denying that. He ended his Angel career with 326 saves. Izzy stands at 264 right now - 188 with the Cardinals.
It's easy to remember Izzy's 2006 and how bad it was but the 4 years before it were really all very good. Izzy's approaching the twilight of his career. The option for next year seems like a no-brainer to me if Isringhausen can maintain something similar to pre-2006 for the rest of the season. I'm not a fan of overpaying for closers, but the Cardinals don't really have an obvious replacement at the moment and overpaying for closers is still a relatively standard operating procedure throughout baseball. Extending Isringhausen for more than a year or two seems like a risky move given his injury history. I'm highly skeptical that Izzy moves at the deadline given his 10-5 rights.
But I'm just going to ignore all those management decisions and revel in the Izzy that we all knew and loved from before 2006. It's nice to at least feel like the one-run leads are gonna hold up when a right-handed reliever comes in for the Cardinals.
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Don't go getting to excited now
Isringhausen's 4.02-1.67-.169
Franklin's 4.33-1.35-.219
Springer's 3.85-3.07-.292
Flores' 3.93-4.91-.375
Now, by looking at this, I would think Izzy and Franklin are due for a pretty big setback, and I certainly don't expect them to keep up there current ERAs. Which is why I personally think there great sell high candidates.
Springer is slightly overperforming, but not nearly on the level as the other two. But Springer also is terrible at getting groundballs (17.1%) so you have to wonder how much La Duncan like him.
Now Flores, has been quite unlucky especially compared to there guys when looking at there ERAs.
by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 2, 2007 8:35 AM EDT reply actions
overperforming?
if Wells is DFA'd... if Thompson's is returned to the pen... if Wellemeyer is still around.
The interesting thing about this right-handed crowd is who would have predicted such extravagant options considering the injury to Kinney and the demise of Hancock.
Never really
I really could careless about the bullpen, because quite frankly bullpens are overrated, our SP is what needs help. Theres only one above average starter on this team that is expected to pitch this year and his name is Carpenter.
A whole bunch of crap pitchers really isn't going to affect our bullpen. Also, I wouldn't get my hopes to high on Percival. Thompson, Wells, Wellemeyer, Maroth and the list goes on just aren't good enough pitchers, you could bring up a number of pitchers from AAA and they would succeed in the bullpen or be just as "valuable" in the bullpen. Which is why I would love to sell high on Izzy and Franklin for actual good players that are more valuable (prospects!) and maybe if we trade Izzy the Cards might be willing to ya know sign Kyle Russell and get Kozma onto a team already. But maybe thats just one mans opinion, that bullpens are overrated.
by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 2, 2007 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that bullpens are overrated
I'm not claiming that any of our righties will maintain their performances. I'd be shocked if they did (although something below a 3.5 at the end of the season seems reasonable for all three relievers). But they've all been quite good and sometimes it's nice to just enjoy the visceral reaction of comfort when they enter the game.
I think
I think I'm just set on the idea that trading Franklin and Izzy would be the best thing to do right now while there value is so high, because I don't see there value getting any higher.
We are almost 10 games out, and while theres 80 games left, I don't see us making the playoffs, and would like us maximize Franklin and Izzy's value to us by trading them to a contender who thinks they need bullpen help. Enough out of me, because I'm really starting to get off topic.
by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 2, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm so anti-Izzy
So, if we peddle him, I would be happy; altho' he is fifth on my wish list {for Birds on the bat termination}... the top four being (alphabetically) Encarnacion, Kennedy, Reyes, and Wells.
To the issue of bullpens being over-rated or the opposite... I'm mixed, but I think the bullpen saved our butt last year {after Izzy did the honorable thing and fell of his sword)
And would San Diego or Milwaukee be doing as well without their BP's?
by CurtFlood on Jul 2, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
You want to dump Encarnacion more than Kennedy?
To me
by yer dog first on Jul 2, 2007 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Dumping Encarnacion?
That said, the biggest argument to push for a trade of Encarnacion, as a higher priority, is the perceived notion that we have plenty of other viable outfield options. Significantly better options than we do for moving Kennedy. Plus, swapping out Instant Breakfast to another team opens up more playing time (for Duncan, Ludwick, Ankiel?) and returns better talent and/or payroll space than shipping off / DFAing Schumaker.
If it is simply a matter of getting rid of the worst players on our squad, Juan is certainly much further down the list. Plus, he's been solid vs lefties, on a team that gets their lunch money stolen from southpaws, so there isn't much of an argument to get rid of him. But if I'm trying to open up opportunities AND get a decent player back, Encarnacion is probably our best choice to move.
nice post azruavatar
just speculating, but with today's roster move do you think the cardinals would hold off on anthony reyes, dl spiezio, and carry 13 pitchers?
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 2, 2007 8:45 AM EDT reply actions
thanks
You are right
Who knows.......
alas
Maybe
Of course, there are moving pieces involved--Percival potentially has a rather fresh arm. But with BLoop and Wellemeyer being stretched out as starters, I'd be surprised if they have a lot in the tank as August becomes September. On the other hand, there is Mr. Wells.
If this seemingly deranged organization...
What is the Cards' record
What is when Reyes starts?
You have to look at the bottom line in times like these when the team is 10 games out of 1st.
I want Reyes to stay up as well, but with Looper coming back, do you sit and who do you send down? You cannot argue with the results that Thompson and Wellenmeyer are getting currently.
correlation vs. causation
Wellemeyer has been outperforming Reyes
<tr>
<td>Name</td>
<td>ERA</td>
<td>K/9</td>
<td>K/BB</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reyes</td>
<td>6.40</td>
<td>6.40(weird)</td>
<td>1.92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Wellemeyer(stl)</td>
<td>4.11</td>
<td>7.71</td>
<td>2.00</td>
</tr>
</table>
It's not a massive difference, but Wellemeyer has been outperforming Reyes pretty much across the board. That's not to say that they shouldn't stick with Anthony, but he's... not been good this season.
In the end,
Though he certainly earned another start after his start against the Mets.
The two pitchers ERAs
Their last 6 starts:
G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB SO HBP
Wellemeyer 6 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 28.1 4.45 30 18 14 3 14 22 1
Reyes 6 6 1 0 5 0 1 0 30.2 7.92 40 27 27 4 14 18 4
We can preach about run support all we want, how Reyes doesn't get it and Todd does. However, when you are giving up as many runs as Reyes does then you aren't giving your team their best chance to win.
Wellemeyer has been better. He'll have to show himself to not be a better option before Reyes gets HIS spot in the rotation.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
ERA is not a good way to evaluate pitchers
Reyes FIP - 4.61
Wellemeyer FIP - 4.35
They're effectively the same pitcher right now.
Except, they aren't
Wellemeyer gives up less runs, less hits, strikes out more and has a lower ERA than Reyes does. Reyes' glimmer of hope outing against the Mets was matched by Wellemeyer's dominating performance.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
If you call FIP
Maybe Wellemeyer has learned something from DD/TLR -- his command seems marginally improved. But I just can't stress enough that things like LOB% are going to regress to the mean. I'm totally unconvinced that Reyes has some undefinable quality that causes him to strand so few runnners. Or that Wellemeyer's abnormally low 6% HR/AO ratio isn't going to go up. Wellemeyer is getting fewer groundballs than he has in the previous 2 years.
All signs point to Wellemeyer regressing and Reyes regressing -- but in opposite directions. If you want to pick 40 innings and try to tell me someone's better, have at but I'm not going to believe it for a second. They're track records are too telling for me to admit anything more than right now, they are probably comparable pitchers.
FIP
"They are probably comparable pitchers", not at the major league level they aren't. Reyes has become the stuff legends because he had 2 really good games in the 30 he's started in the big leagues.
Wellemeyer has been bad for most of his career, stemming from his problem with putting extra runners on base via the walk. As long as he doesn't do that, he can remain effective.
Reyes has shown signs like this before. He went 6.1 innings of 4 hit, no run ball against the Pirates striking out 9 last year. He then promptly coughed up 7 runs in 2.1 innings against the DBacks his next time out.
Reyes has all the talent in the world, but he just isn't 'getting it'. For all the career numbers, Wellemeyer hasn't thrown THAT many more innings than Reyes, has a ton more strikeouts and has the same career ERA. Reliever vs Starter.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand the frustration with Reyes
is relying on 35 innings to evaluate a pitcher. Just because Wellemeyer has a streak where he's improved his command doesn't indicate he can be effective moving forward or that's it's really new skill level. You're drawing too many conclusions from 35 innings.
but he just isn't 'getting it' is a quick way to give up on talent. players that just don't get it at first can still be great pitchers. It would behoove the organization to stick with Reyes.
Giving up on him
Send him down to Memphis for a month, if the Cardinals fall further out of contention, Looper's arm falls off, Wellemeyer comes back to earth, etc...call him up. The division leading Brewers just sent a better pitcher (Gallardo) to their bullpen just to save him on innings.
The Cardinals haven't gone from full-on 'contention' to 'developmental' mode yet, atleast the front office and management haven't.
Reyes has quickly gone from the Cardinals best pitching prospect for years to not (Perez). He can still be an effective MLB pitcher, there is little doubt about that. I just think it is time for people to begin to adjust their perspective on what Anthony Reyes is and what he isn't.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
This, of course,
A Slight Disageement
Bob and everyone else...
Reyes may be crap and may never amount to anything, but it's in the organization's interest to FIND OUT. 2007 is toast. 2008 will be a lot better if Reyes and Wainwright are effective and the best way to make them effective for '08 is to pitch them every fifth day in '07.
Reyes vs. Welly
If at the end of the year Reyes hasn't improved at all, then he'll need to go. But it's frustrating to have a situation where a guy with promising talent isn't getting starts in a year where I honestly don't believe the team's going anywhere.
The SBNation's Atlanta Falcons Blog
Oh, ye of little faith.......
I'm still a committed RedBird, but I can't say I get much joy watching them go through the motions....I'm going to miss Anthony when he's gone.....
Oops, sorry
Ludwick
It is on
Where is Edmonds?
Cardinals have a chance to go 6-1 this week and get a game below .500. That would move them within 5 games of the Wild Card.
Edmonds gives them a better chance of doing that.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 11:19 AM EDT reply actions
I'd be ecstatic if we went 5-2.
by CardFaninVA on Jul 2, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
there we go again...
fact is our winning pct is .462; that makes .462 x 7 = 3.234 (3) wins in the next 7 games. let's just be happy if we go 3-4; imho that's all we should demand a this moment from this team; but of course 4-3 will make us feel lots better.
Who's counting?
by CardFaninVA on Jul 2, 2007 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Kemp for Mark Buehrle
I would hope that Walt could put together a better package (devoid of our + prospects) surrounding Reyes.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 11:24 AM EDT reply actions
matt kemp
Ditto
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 2, 2007 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of correlation and causation...
If I was an opposing manager, I'd start a lefty with much worse stuff rather than a righty against the Cards, just to get Duncan out of the lineup. TLR's platoon moves are so predictable that it seems opposing managers can take advantage of them...
by CardFaninVA on Jul 2, 2007 11:28 AM EDT reply actions
excellent post
Juan is, at best, a 6 or 7 hole hitter (like Sanders was); he is a .270 "mistake" hitter. Because he DOES have raw talent, but he (Enc) doesn't adjust or "think" very well.
** a side note: I honestly think that LaRussa is too sensitive to the "nepotism" aura re. playing Chris Duncan every day. He should tell such thinkers to 'stick it' and put Dunc in the cleanup spot all the time, except maybe against a really really tough lefty.
by CurtFlood on Jul 2, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunc, Enc, Ank
PS: I wouldn't advocate starting Ankiel in this lineup spot, but his 2007 AAA splits are quite good vs LHP (well, not BB).
Cardinals vs Stole the Cy Young
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Gary Bennett 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .100 .100 .100 .200
Chris Duncan 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Juan Encarnacion 9 9 2 1 0 1 4 0 4 .222 .222 .667 .889
Aaron Miles 31 26 7 0 0 0 3 3 3 .269 .333 .269 .602
Yadier Molina 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000
Albert Pujols 16 15 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 .200 .250 .267 .517
Scott Rolen 8 8 2 2 0 0 2 0 2 .250 .250 .500 .750
Scott Spiezio 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
So Taguchi 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .666
I would guess that the lineup will go:
Eck SS
Taguchi CF
Pujols 1B
Duncan LF
Rolen 3B
Encarnacion RF
Miles 2B
Molina C
Looper P
Tony will want to get Wally Backman 2.0 in there againt Webb as he has had the most success. The lineup could go a lot of different ways if Tony decides to put Juan in cleanup spot.
Things we know FOR sure: Eck 1, Apu 3, Rolen 5, Looper 9.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply actions
So losing to the Cards gets you fired?
Wanna know the real reason
Anxiety...
interesting piece
What I liked best was learning that Ank recently got married. I bet if you calculated a young player's performance AFTER a marriage, it would be mostly UP.
When with the Cards. I recall that Ankiel was a lot like his buddy, JD Drew -- intense, quiet, almost 'religious.'
Like thousands of others in Cardinal Nation, I'm rooting for him.
by CurtFlood on Jul 2, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure how ironic it is..
by Birds on the Matt on Jul 2, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Grammar Nazi
neither one, I guess
My question now becomes... what creds does he have to be a hitting coach at an AAA level?
by CurtFlood on Jul 2, 2007 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
In other news
http://youtube.com/watch?v=-gDIgXi2Eks
Do yourself a favor and watch this video!
Denied
Saw it as well
has eck been activated??
i have to imagine eck/loop activated, ryan/reyes down.
i would really love to see schumaker demoted however.
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 2, 2007 4:10 PM EDT reply actions
That would require Edmonds to be activated
Edmonds and Looper were both placed on the DL the same day.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Lineup
Miles SS
Pujols 1B
Duncan LF
Rolen 3B
Ludwick RF
Kennedy 2B
Molina C
Looper P
It appears that Eckstein wasn't activated, nor was Edmonds. The Eckstein thing is becoming troublesome as the team has been saying his back is fine now, his legs are just out of shape. They've been saying this for 3 days now. What was he doing, eating Twinkies for 15 days?
i can do the lineup however
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 2, 2007 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Back spasms
by Birds on the Matt on Jul 2, 2007 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I also have
I think I said this last night,
Maybe I'm wrong about this, and maybe you can bring a guy back up if you DL someone. Does anyone know more about this?...
by CardFaninVA on Jul 2, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
You were corrected about this last night too...
I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong,
by CardFaninVA on Jul 2, 2007 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
can't find the official source
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2003/01/transactions-glossary.html
"However, a player optioned to the minor leagues may not be recalled for at least 10 days, unless the club places a Major League player on the disabled list during the 10-day window."
It's official----
you are correct
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 2, 2007 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
It's not like they shipped him to Zaire. He'll be back by September at the latest.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
lets just trade him already
Actually, it made him worse
I don't know that I'd be too pumped with Reyes following the Mike Maroth plan, losing 20+ games and then hovering around a 5.00 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Reyes is finished
One thing
Holy effin crap...
Apparently the Cardinals are so oozing with talent they can actually worry about style points. Fire LaJocketty, Hire DePodesta!!!
If you'll notice
If he wasn't going to be coming back until September, why would Duncan have had him throw a workout today? Why would they care what Reyes does in Memphis tomorrow?
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 2, 2007 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Bernie said those
good
Reyes hasn't just been a poor pitcher this year. he's been arguably the worst pitcher in the NL; certainly well below average. With a minimum of 60 innings pitched (Reyes has pitched 64), his ERA is the worst in the NL (ERC is 49 of 67). his DIPS is 48 of out 67. his QS% is 2nd worst in NL (.17). his WHIP is 45 out of 67 (Wainwright = 62; Wells = 64). his K/BB is 39/67. the only category i could find in which Reyes is above average is K/9, where he sneaks into the top half (29/67). other than that, he's a below average pitcher in every category, including the sabermetric ones.
everyone who wants to DFA Wells and demote Wellemeyer but keep Reyes in the rotation indefinitely should do a gut check. chalk it up to TLR/Dunc if you like, but their philosophy isn't going to change. neither, apparently, is Reyes' attitude or philosophy. if one of them has to go, i'd rather keep the proven, HOF coaching staff and junk the unproven, stubborn youngster with a horrible MLB career (to this point). i'd really prefer it didn't come down to either. but facts are facts... as of right now, for whatever reason, Reyes is a horrible pitcher. defending him with guesses (i.e. if only he only threw two pitches all the time, he'd be great) doesn't do him any good. for one thing, those lines are unfalsifiable; the probability of it being true is no greater than the probability of it being false.
so...
by Birds on the Matt on Jul 3, 2007 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
not true...
If you remove strikeout measurements -- which are completely arbitrary... i only put them in to make Reyes look better, or at least include GO/FO measures to balance them out -- then he is quite literally one of the worst pitchers in the league this season. in the aggregate, he wouldn't be "slightly to the right" on a distribution curve; he'd be well to the right, and approaching the tail. depending on which stat you want to measure, he'd be in the tail. hell, by some stats, he'd actually be the tail (e.g. QS%, or the traditional measures). there is simply no argument about this: he's been absolutely horrible.
the only Cardinal pitcher who has been nearly as bad is Wells, and he has similarly been demoted. Everyone else in the rotation -- whether Looper, Thompson, or Wellemeyer -- has been better. Again, if Wells deserves to be DFA'd, then Reyes definitely deserves to be sent back down to AAA.
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