Computers in the dugout?
By now, we're used to pretty detailed use of statistics to evaluate past contributions of players and help estimate future contributions. A savvy GM using this information should be able to value players better than an old-school GM.
I wonder to what extent managers should be, or are, using computers and advanced analysis for making in-game tactical decisions.
Think about the most common decisions that a manager makes when on offense:
Whether to pinch hit, and with whom...
Whether to bunt...
Whether to hit and run...
Whether to flash the green light for a steal...
Many of us have seen charts showing expected runs for different situations (men on first and second, one out). And I think some folks have done analysis of overall chances to win (home team, up by 2 runs, bottom of the 7th, 1 out, nobody on).
Often, the use of such charts shows that certain small-ball decisions (bunting) are rather marginal - they hurt the team's overall chances of winning.
But frankly, I question such broad analysis. Too often, these types of charts, and the analysis that stems from them, appears to be based on broad averages. Perhaps having a 60% base stealer attempt a steal is a bad decision in most cases. Perhaps it's even a bad decision in the current situation, analyzed superficially (using broad averages of thousands of different baseball games in the past). But if we are playing in a big, pitcher-friendly park, down by 1, two outs, a very good opposing pitcher on the mound, but we know that the opposing catcher has a weak arm, then all those odds are shifted around rather significantly.
Of course, a manager will try to take much of this into account. But wouldn't it be better to feed all this information (or as much as is reasonably feasible) into a computer, and have the computer feed the manager a live, quick list of options? (Computer shows - attempting a steal in this situation raises our win probability from 33.1% to 34.8%.)
I think I've read that TLR has notecards with batter on pitcher stats (batter X is 5 for 9 against pitcher Y, lifetime). What if all this data was readily available by computer, but with a somewhat stronger analysis behind it, that takes into account things like sample size (i.e. 5 for 9 is nice, 50 for 90 is much nicer) and other tendencies (batter X is weak against fastball pitchers who can throw 92+ mph).
Again, I'd imagine that managers do take some of this stuff into account, but it's probably a little more gut/hunch driven.
I can see why managers might not like the concept - it would feel like their jobs are being taken over, in part, by a computer. But I think a good manager would be able to work with the guy running the system to design it well (which tendencies truly matter and which are more likely random), and would be using the system's output merely as a tool (albeit a very useful one). If the manager knows that the guy on first has had knee issues for the last few games, the manager may choose not to flash the green light or call a hit and run even if the computer likes the odds for those.
Anyways, does anyone know if any teams are doing anything like this now?
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to paraphrase Mark Twain
Unnecessary
Has it actually been proven that a GM
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 16, 2007 10:14 PM EST reply actions
Are we discussing (on-field) management
But in anycase, wasn't that the attempt of "Moneyball"?
I'm talking about his first paragraph
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 16, 2007 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
There are three kinds of lies:
If I remember correctly most of the guys drafted in the Moneyball draft didn't really pan out. I think Scott Kazmir was one of the players Beane allegedly dismissed drafting and he has certainly done very well.
Good analysis is the key
If you play roulette and bet on whichever color has appeared most often in the last 7 spins, you may convince yourself you have a valid statistical model, but you are almost certainly betting on chance (and losing to greens over time).
But just because some models are bad does not mean that they all are.
It's been a while since I read Moneyball, but I think the point was not so much that these ideas (focus on OBP, draft college players, etc) are ALWAYS right, but rather, that Beane and crew had done their homework, and these ideas were more likely to be right at the time (because other GMs didn't place enough weight on OBP and got too caught up in HS players who seemed like they might blossom, but often didn't).
Good statistical methods don't assure success, they just make it more likely. By the numbers, the Cardinals should have been much more likely to win the World Series in '04 or '05 than in '06. It's my belief that they basically got somewhat lucky in '06 and unlucky in '04 and '05 (it's a bit more complicate than that, but I think luck is probably the dominant factor in explaining the playoff outcomes for '04-'06).
Now, if Beane had a bunch of novel ideas and over a long period of time had little success, then we might be correct in disregarding his ideas. But Oakland HAS had success, disproportionate to it's relatively small market and payroll.
The right approach is not just to accept that college pitchers are superior to HS pitchers, but rather, to do rigorous analysis. It's possible that the pendulum had swung one way 5-10 years ago, and has now swung the other way.
by psteinx on Dec 17, 2007 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
The question is, though
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 17, 2007 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
stats + smarts > smarts alone
Similarly, I understand that a computer is unlikely to replace broad baseball knowledge in capturing every nuance that plays into tactical in-game decision making. But I think a good computer system would be a great tool for an open-minded manager.
As for the idea that a manager does all this stuff already, in his head... I'm sure most attempt to, but it's just not realistic to expect a human to process a broad range of numerical data as well as a well-written program, in real-time, during a game. Again, the numerical analysis is not necessarily the whole picture, but I think it could/should be a part of it.
Consider football, where coaches are reluctant to go for it on 4th down in many situations where analysis strongly supports it. (And yes, I'm aware that some would defend punting by worrying about big momentum losses and such. But IIRC, I've seen pretty persuasive analysis that momentum is a relatively small factor, and doesn't justify overly conservative 4th down decision making).
by psteinx on Dec 16, 2007 11:50 PM EST reply actions
it's not the computers in the dugout
signed,
keith hernandez
REEEE-JECTED.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 17, 2007 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
agreed.
lou piniella
http://dugout.progressiveboink.com/archive/nick138.htm

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