Capuano for Reyes

i'm a reyes fan

have been for a while. don't like the idea of trading him to the brewers. cappy had a bad year with a 5-12 record, 5.10 ERA but he still had a solid FIP of 4.39. I don't really like the trade, but the team is obviously soured on reyes.

i thought the brew crew were looking more or a 3b or relief. (Braun must be moved to LF)

Future Redbirds

by erik on Nov 30, 2007 3:20 PM EST reply actions

Pickoffs, pickoffs, pickoffs

A Capuano-Molina battery would result in any runners on first taking leads of no more than nine inches off the bag.

Surely that's got to be something to look forward to.

by flynn on Nov 30, 2007 3:31 PM EST reply actions

We had that with Maroth

But that did nothing to keep the next man at the plate from making the game look like a HR derby

by DriverZn on Nov 30, 2007 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

i like it

Reyes cannot work with Duncan for whatever reason. He's a square peg in a round hole. I thought I've heard it said that D. Duncan likes Capuano. But he might have liked Maroth as well. Whatever. Anthony is going to wash out if he stays in our organization so I think we should salvage what we can for him and, unfortunately, we have picked the low point to sell young Mr. Reyes. If Capuano recovers form from the dismal 2007 and becomes a productive 4/5 starter, then we're ahead on the deal.

by jjray on Nov 30, 2007 3:41 PM EST reply actions

Reyes...

He's just as likely to have a good year as Capuano. Silly deal.

This is the Cardinals were talking about here. I can't remember them doing something that looked smart at the time in years.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 3:44 PM EST reply actions

I think you're right

maybe Capuano is a little more likely -- he does have 2 pretty good years under his belt. And, to me, I thought it was possible we might end up w/ less than Capuano for Reyes BUT...

Capuano would be under team control for 2 years. Reyes is for 5. I'd really prefer somebody younger who would be under the team's control for longer than 2 years if we're going to trade a young pitcher who still has a pretty good upside. Granted, the odds of him reaching that upside are much lower than a year or two ago.

Trading 5 years for 2 is the big concern of mine here.

by chuckb on Nov 30, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Yes...

"Trading 5 years for 2 is the big concern of mine here."

That's a major part of it as well.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

My thoughts exactly...

The chances of Reyes fulling realizing his upside may be slim... but what are the chances of him meeting Capuano's best performances thus far which hover right around a 4.00 ERA? Doesn't seem like a stretch at all... and we have him under control longer.

I'd like to acquire Capuano but not sure this is the way I'd like to see it happen... and he's gonna be 30 next August. Thought he was younger than that.

by AndyB83 on Nov 30, 2007 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

Not in St. Louis he's not...

If Reyes is going to be a successful major league pitcher, it's not as a Cardinal, not with Duncan and Tony around anyway.

by DiscoJer on Nov 30, 2007 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

I would rather see them send Reyes in a package

with Anderson and company to Fl for willis or possibly bigger fish.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Nov 30, 2007 4:02 PM EST reply actions

I agree

Not with the Willis part, but sending Reyes in a package.

I have made my peace with him not working out here, but I wouldn't want him in the division and I really don't want Capuano.

C70 at the Bat

by Cardinal70 on Nov 30, 2007 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

The 07/08

Offseason will go down in MLB history as the year when the the least amount of raw talent was moved around out of win-now desperation for the most money ever. So far, MO has'nt "stepped in it" the way some other teams have already (jinx)!

I hope trades dont reflect the same trend and we lose some young guys we need to hold on to. Reyes can go in a package deal, but I hope its not with any of the few real prospects.

.

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 1, 2007 6:27 AM EST up reply actions

I would

be fine with the trade of reyes for capuano. Reyes needs a new scenary. It just makes sense, but I don't think the Brewers would do this. Not straight up atleast. My bigger question is whom do we get to play third after we trade Rolen. He is going to go, the rift can not be mended. I think he will be gone after next week.

2/3rd's of the earth is covered by water, the other third is coverd by Jim Edmonds....when he's healthy...

by cardsphan04 on Nov 30, 2007 4:17 PM EST reply actions

The Brewers...

they'd be all over this and rightfully so. They could very well non tender Capuano and get zilch for him.

If they could get someone with Reyes' pontential they'd be jumping up and down.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

Are you sure?

Here are the ZIPS projections for both players;

Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Chris Capuano* 29 4.48 12 12 33 31 195.0 207 97 25 52 154
Anthony Reyes 26 4.65 8 9 27 26 149.0 153 77 23 45 106

So you'd be trading for a pitcher who is projected to perform slightly better but who is 3 years older. (And remember that most projection systems tend to really like Reyes.)

I don't think this is as one-sided as you think.

by kjblair on Nov 30, 2007 4:59 PM EST up reply actions

No...

I'm not sure.

Word around MIL is that they are itching to move him though.-

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

Those ZIPS projections...

aren't worth zip. They don't account for the org's unwillingness to give him 149 innings. Reyes is worth a lot less to the Cardinals than to other teams.

Who needs Antonetti? Give Luhniak a chance!

by guayzimi on Nov 30, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

Or his ability to EARN those innings

I would take Capuano (a lefty with two very good seasons and one bad one under his belt) over Reyes (who has no good MLB seasons under his belt). The people on MLBTradeRumors.com seem to think that a Reyes-Capuano swamp would benefit the Cards. Brewers fans don't want Reyes. This idea that we would have Reyes for 5 more years (I don't think that's quite right) presupposes that Reyes will actually pitch well enough to stick with the team, period ... and THEN maintain that level of pitching for years to come. How quickly we seem to be forgetting how ghastly he was last year.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

Are you forgetting...

how ghastly Crapuano was last year?

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

he was still better than reyes

i'm also remembering how good he was the two years before that, and the fact that reyes wasn't much better in '06.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

Remember Dan Haren....

It makes me sick to think about the haul Beane is gonna get and we got his lame armed pitcher Mulder(who I would trade for again, I mean who has a crystal ball) and we are praying he can throw a baseball come spring. Besides we should have learned from that like the Mets should have learned from the Kazmir fiasco.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Nov 30, 2007 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Whom should we wait out...Reyes or Duncan?

Is Duncan under contract after 2008? Maybe another pitching coach could work well with Reyes.

Should we be patient with Reyes and his salary-controlled 5 years or dump him for a guy that Duncan ends up working well with for only 1 year?

by lightbulb on Nov 30, 2007 4:39 PM EST reply actions

Where

would Reyes fit in the Brewers rotation? The reason they're looking to move Capuano is because they don't have any room in their rotation for him with all the young pitching talent that they have at AAA and in the big leagues. Is it possible they're looking at making him into a closer since they just lost theirs?

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Nov 30, 2007 4:54 PM EST reply actions

What could we get

from the brewers for Rolen and Reyes packaged? They have need of a third basemen, and Reyes has alot of upside. I know the idea is not to trade within your divison, and that Reyes and Rolen could really bounce back and hurt us, but the Brew-Crew could use these guys and they have alot of young talent we could steal. I'm not saying will get Prince or Braun, but what about Hall or Gywnn.

Save the Kipper don't make him go back out there.

by gibbyfan on Nov 30, 2007 5:01 PM EST reply actions

I'd take that

I've always liked Capuano. Never liked Reyes.

by abothebear on Nov 30, 2007 5:32 PM EST reply actions

Hmmm....

"I've always liked Capuano. Never liked Reyes."

That's a good enough reason I guess. Oh boy...

Well, you've got to figure that's at least as good as the throwing darts at the wall strategy the Cardinals seem to employ.

It is very, very, very hard to be positive about this organization. It just seems disfunctional from top to bottom and if anyone can figure out the "plan" they have to make us better...please help me out, because I don't see one.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

Look out, the sky is falling

The winter meetings haven't even started yet. The new GM hasn't exactly had a chance to make much of an impact yet. He signed a backup catcher, and kept it cheap--good job there. He signed a guy who may be our starting shortstop or might be a platoon player or may spend most of the year warming our bench. With what we'll be paying him (not to mention the incentives for plate appearances--I don't think we'd be putting that in the deal if we didn't think he might NOT be getting 400+ plate appearances) it doesn't really matter what we do with him. If by some chance something better comes along (which is, admittedly, unlikely) Izturis could just as likely become Aaron Miles's replacement as opposed to Eckstein's. Either way, it's better than most of the alternatives. Izturis is a classic stopgap, and he's coming cheap. Would you have rather us given up talent and a truckload of money for Jack Wilson? He's not that much better, and costs what, 10m more? And would require us to give up a couple of young, cost-controlled arms? And his contract is how many years? No thanks. It's not like Jack Wilson (or any other available shortstop except for Tejada, who we don't have the means to aquire) is going to turn this team into a contender in 08, and he'd be screwing the pooch in 09 and beyond.

Let's at least wait and see what the roster looks like in February before saying the organization doesn't have a plan.

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 30, 2007 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Here we go...

"The winter meetings haven't even started yet. The new GM hasn't exactly had a chance to make much of an impact yet. "

Obviously...I'm not talking about the month and a half since Mo has been here. I'm talking about the past few years where this team has gotten progressively worse, older, and more espensive.

When is the last time the Cardinals made a move that , at the time, was supposed to be a big improvement? An impact move? Mark Mulder?

"He signed a backup catcher, and kept it cheap--good job there."

Who cares. Not even worth mentioning either way.

"With what we'll be paying him (not to mention the incentives for plate appearances--I don't think we'd be putting that in the deal if we didn't think he might NOT be getting 400+ plate appearances) it doesn't really matter what we do with him."

Well, if you're not interested in winning baseball games...then yeah, I guess it doesn't matter. If you can't see that he IS THE STARTING SS then I don't know what else to do. He wasn't signed to platoon with Ryan or replace Miles. That's just wishful thinking, and I think you know that.

"Izturis is a classic stopgap, and he's coming cheap. Would you have rather us given up talent and a truckload of money for Jack Wilson? He's not that much better, and costs what, 10m more? And would require us to give up a couple of young, cost-controlled arms? And his contract is how many years? No thanks. It's not like Jack Wilson (or any other available shortstop except for Tejada, who we don't have the means to aquire) is going to turn this team into a contender in 08, and he'd be screwing the pooch in 09 and beyond."

If you've read any of my other posts...I'm in complete agreement with you here. '08 is a lost cause anyway, so the Izturis signing doesn't upset me per se.

"Let's at least wait and see what the roster looks like in February before saying the organization doesn't have a plan. "

No need. I've been paying attention the past few years.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 6:09 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe you hadn't been paying attention

But until last year we'd been to the playoffs for three straight seasons and won the World Series in 06. There hasn't been a need to make major, drastic, impact moves.

But yeah, you're right. This organization sucks and there's no hope for them and the team should move to Utah.

What ever happened to that rule where you aren't allowed to bitch for five years after winning a sports championship?

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 30, 2007 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Again..

"But until last year we'd been to the playoffs for three straight seasons and won the World Series in 06. There hasn't been a need to make major, drastic, impact moves."

You can't sit there with a straight face and tell me that a team that went from back to back 100 win seasons to 83 and 78 wins respectively didn't need to make any impact moves. Without impact moves now it's quite possible the team is even worse in '08. Look at their run differential from last year...they played above their head and still only eaked out 78 victories.

"But yeah, you're right. This organization sucks and there's no hope for them and the team should move to Utah."

Quit. If you don't like debating or having some disagree with you...that's fine, but you've continually put words in my mouth in this exchange. If you want to respond, hell even disagree, with something I ACTUALLY said then great!! I respond to what you post...please extend me the courtesy of doing the same (even if you disagree).

Oh, guess I never thought much of that "rule".

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 10:16 PM EST up reply actions

Weren't you recently saying...

...that the team should just tank '08 and play for '09? To "build for the future"? I also remember this absurd idea that the Cardinals were somehow going to sign both Jake Peavy and Ben Sheets for less than $15 million per year. You have it all figured out. It's not that easy. The team HAS been successful and they ARE trying to adopt a new approach. They have limited options in the short term. Relax, take a few deep breaths, and try to tone down the apocalyptic ranting if at all possible. It's really unpleasant.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:33 PM EST up reply actions

Uh-huh

"Weren't you recently saying...
...that the team should just tank '08 and play for '09? To "build for the future"? "

Yes, as recently as 1 hour ago.

"I also remember this absurd idea that the Cardinals were somehow going to sign both Jake Peavy and Ben Sheets for less than $15 million per year."

Your memory is a bit fuzzy. First I never said they WERE going to sign only that if they employed my strategy that they COULD sign. Your number figures are off as well.

"elax, take a few deep breaths, and try to tone down the apocalyptic ranting if at all possible. It's really unpleasant."

Quit reading my posts then friend. If they cause you that much discomfort...don't read them.

"ou have it all figured out. It's not that easy."

Yes it is. I had a 10 paragraph diary about what should be done. It's quite simple if you employ the correct strategy. This team could be elite as early as 2009.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

Ridiculous

If it was that easy, everyone would do it. This isn't fantasy baseball.

Besides, if you're such an expert, then why aren't you working in major league baseball rather than throwing tantrums and bullying people around on blog forums?

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

Bullying?

Quit crying.

If you want to debate baseball fine. The personal pot shots are uncalled for.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 2, 2007 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

thanks for the level headed doe of reason

I agree, it isn't like the Cardinals are in the best position to make moves. The plan seems pretty clear to me - field the most competitive team possible while not mortgaging the future. I don't like Izturis, but I don't like any of the realistic options. So a cheap one year guy with bounce-back potential sounds as good as anything else. And picking up a left-hander with a record of success for parts that are no longer viable to the club is close to the best thing you could do short of taking advantage of a sucker GM. The reality is that, short of trading Pujols, the Cards are doing exactly what they should be doing considering what they have and what is available.

The one alternative is to go all in for the future, but when you have what the Cardinals have, in the division the Cardinals are in, you can't rule out the real possibility that they can compete and make the playoffs. They ran into a lot of bad luck last year and were still in it 'til the end. It isn't so unreasonable to think things will be better with essentially the same team.

by abothebear on Nov 30, 2007 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

so you'd like a little more?

I have seen Reyes pitch a couple of outstanding games, but I have never seen him pitch in a way that seemed outstanding. He doesn't have top of the rotation talent. It just isn't in him. He can probably be a good 3 or 4 guy under the right conditions, but never someone I'd count on.

Capuano on the other hand, if you subtract the second half of '07, has looked pretty darn good. And 18 wins isn't something I would count on from the guy, but a 14 win expectation is reasonable. He seems like a solid 3 with potential for streaks of 2 in him.

Obviously with last years break down he's risky, but what choice do the Cardinals have? They have practically nothing to trade with so whatever they do is going to be a risk, including keeping Reyes.

by abothebear on Nov 30, 2007 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

...wow!!!!!!

I like the idea that Bobby is kinda accusing people of not being very rational, theres some kind of odd symmetry to that which is almost as weird as the idea of a Capuano for Reyes or Duncan or Rolen thread.

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 1, 2007 6:02 AM EST up reply actions

Examples

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 9:34 AM EST up reply actions

A commentor

At mlbtraderumors.com said that ESPN is reporting Rolen for Capuano as a possibility. I looked around on espn.com, if there's anything about it there it must be subscriber-only. So take that with a few grains of salt, if anyone has an espn account and can verify one way or another that'd be neat.

I'm torn. If they're willing to eat his whole salary... But, call me old fashioned, I don't like dealing within the division.

"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 30, 2007 5:47 PM EST reply actions

Rolen for Capuano

I heard Buster Olney talking about how Bill Hall might be brought up in negotiations with the Cardinals. Now if we traded for Hall I would be happy we would get some real right-handed pop in the outfield... that would be a good 3-4-5 lineup Albert, Hall, Duncan pretty good....

by Calhoun on Nov 30, 2007 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

...and then

...watch SR be the comeback player of the year in Mil? Is Halls ankle healed?

Who knows?

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 1, 2007 6:29 AM EST up reply actions

Dude

Is SR`s shoulder healed? who knows? but Hall is younger and he can play SS, 3B, OF.
I think he has a better shot of being healthy then Rolen...

by Calhoun on Dec 1, 2007 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

Yo....

He also has a GIANT new contract...dude! Or duh?

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 3, 2007 5:26 AM EST up reply actions

And

Hall also played SS a couple of years ago and moved to CF to make room for JJ Hardy to play full time, so he might be an option there. Also looks like the Brewers are interested in ponying up for Andruw Jones, so a Rolen, Reyes for Capuano, Hall trade could be a possible scenario.

I think this would be a tremendous move for the Cardinals if it happens. While it has the potential to bite them in the ass of Reyes turns it around and Rolen rounds back into form, if the Brewers pick up Rolen's whole salary I think it's a move that makes a ton of sense for the organization. This is especially true if Hall can play SS or 3rd base. I'm not a huge fan of Capuano, but he's proven that he can pitch at the big league level and was the recepient of some pretty shitty luck in the middle of season last year. He's a quality arm that doesn't have a ton of injury history, so at least he's show up, eat innings, and add a LH starter to the rotation.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 9:18 AM EST up reply actions

how is hall's defense at SS?

i hadn't thought about him. i'd take capuano and hall for rolen and reyes (or something like that) at this point.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

Olney rumor...

... has Bill Hall for Rolen, and Braun moving to OF.

doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense, since Hall is younger, cheaper, and healthier than Rolen, plus he can play 3B. however, it would make more sense if Capuano + Reyes were included. Capuano is older and more expensive than Reyes (plus fewer years under control).

the salary is fairly close to a wash (perhaps StL sends one or two million over to make up the difference), and both teams get rid of both of their trouble players.

it'd be a weird trade, but it makes sense on some level, and i think the Cards would get the better of it.

by kindred on Nov 30, 2007 6:17 PM EST reply actions

not a fan

dont we already have one lefty who cant get any body out? why do we need another one?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Nov 30, 2007 6:35 PM EST reply actions

capuano was bad for 2/3 of last year

the first part of last year and the two years before that he was excellent -- basically a number 2 starter. if he is healthy, i don't see why he can't bounce back.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

Is John Mozeliak trying to make a bad

baseball team the worst team in the league?

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 30, 2007 7:17 PM EST reply actions

Maybe he's trying to get the #1 pick in

next year's draft!

by chuckb on Nov 30, 2007 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

Hardcore..

Thought you liked Mo.

He signs Izturis and now he's the demise of the team???

Calling Chris Antonetti please! Mr Antonetti???

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

Signing Izturis is not the demise

trading Scott Rolen for Chris Capuano would certainly be a step in the wrong direction.

I'm just saying, let's try NOT collecting all the players the rest of the NL Central doesn't want.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 30, 2007 11:11 PM EST up reply actions

Oh...

I'm all with you. I just thought it was odd that you changed your tune so quickly.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 9:35 AM EST up reply actions

...CA

Antonetti "the schemer and user" of the Cards offer to come have a look-see......he is a smart kid, he used us like a rented mule to get what he wanted. Besides, he's no long term proven commodity any more than Moz.

A youth movememt doesnt always translate to OFF the field...good for MO!

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 3, 2007 7:29 AM EST up reply actions

I am against trading Rolen

I said a couple of weeks ago that Rolen is being shopped, but no worth while trades will materialize. This way Mo can say to Scott that he tried.

This trade seams to have two parts. The first part looks like Rolen for Mench/Gwynn. We already have Ludwick and Schu. Even though Ludwick doesn't hit lefties as well as Mench he is paid a fraction of the money. Schu might very well beat Gwynn out in ST and Gwynn goes to AAA. So that doesn't seam to make much sense.

If the trade is Rolen for Hall that is better, but where does Hall play? If it is the outfield then Mo has a lot of work to do. He will need to move an outfielder to make room, and sign a 3B'er.
I doubt it is SS as some have suggested. Why would we pay 3mill to Izturis to be a back up? Third make sense, but it doesn't solve the need of a RH outfielder.

The deal would make a little sense for the Cards if it was Hall and Mench. I doubt the Brewers go there. Hense my opening statement. "Sorry Scott, but we tried."

The other part of the deal sounds like it could be Reyes for Capuano. That is fine with me.

by nybirdfan on Dec 1, 2007 9:32 PM EST up reply actions

Capuano and Hall

Capuano had two really good seasons in 05 and 06. If he were to replicate those numbers next year he'd arguably be the ace of the staff. Yes, his season this past year was atrocious...or was it? If you don't think he's capable of being effective, I highly recommend you read this article here. Yeah, it wasn't written at the end of the season, but the point remains...Capuano is an attack-the-hitter strike thrower without devastating stuff, so he's dependant on his defense to help him out. And that infield is a quadpod of butcherdom. Braun and Fielder are dreadfully horribly terrible, Weeks is miserably awful, and somehow one of the lower end SS in baseball is the best of the four. Capuano only made about 3.25 million in 07, and for a guy who, with marginally ok defense, would put up some pretty good results. That's a steal as far as I'm concerned.

Furthermore, Reyes's arm is shot in my opinion. The guy's velocity has dropped from the 92-95 range to the upper 80's, his +slider has vanished, his changeup isn't any good without a fastball...I just don't think he's going to put it together any time soon. So if the trade is five years of teasing us with talent for 2 years of good, potentially great pitching...well that sounds pretty damn good to me.

Hall would be a decent addition. He's shown the ability to play SS, 3B, and OF, so he could be moved around if necessary. He suffered from some injuries last year I believe, but his 06 season was quite good, hitting 35 homers and slugging .553. The question is this: can he do that again, and would he be better than Rolen? In 06 he had a higher walk percentage, and had a monster year, and he was healthy...So maybe.

If nothing else, a Reyes/Rolen for Capuano/Hall would be a bold move, something that the FO of the BOB hasn't done since the Mulder trade.

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 30, 2007 7:28 PM EST reply actions

Case for the trade

You make a good case for a Capuano for Reyes trade here: Capuano's been hurt by his defense with the -0.66 FIP-ERA and .340 BABIP. Couple that with the late season shoulder tendinitis and loss of velocity we saw in Reyes and it might be a good time to cut bait on him.

NL K/9 Leaders for 2007 (Starters, min 10 starts)

Randy Johnson
Jake Peavy
Tim Lincecum
Rick VandenHurk
Oliver Perez
Cole Hamels
Chris Young
John Smoltz
John Maine
Aaron Harang
Rich Hill
Yovani Gallardo
Byung-Hyun Kim (surprisingly)
Chris Capuano
El Duque

Such a shame that Reyes probably won't develop into the #2 Cardinal most of us had envisioned.

by liam on Nov 30, 2007 10:09 PM EST up reply actions

Whoops

The list in the comment was something that surprised me. Capuano had the 14th best strikeout rate among NL starters.

by liam on Nov 30, 2007 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

suppan capuano and hall for

rolen reyes bullpen pitcher and schumacker

by cm1000 on Nov 30, 2007 8:50 PM EST reply actions

Hall

Was he awful at SS? It would seem that if we get him, it'd make sense to move him back to short, or even third. Solve a couple problems at once. We seem to be alright in the OF.

by CardFaninVA on Nov 30, 2007 9:09 PM EST reply actions

If Oquendo can help Izturis what do you think he

could do with Hall?

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Dec 1, 2007 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

Hall

Not at all, Hardball Times had an article on zone rating (i am link deficient: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printarticle/what-is-zone-rating/, ) and he rated as one of the best SS in 06, mainly because of his ridiculous out of zone range, he was about average on groundballs in his range. He was a well above average shortstop and I would love to have his production, especially at SS. If he's acquired then I'm sure he'd move to 3rd, because we don't have any internal options there either. I think Capuano/Hall would be a solid return for Rolen/Reyes...if Hall would play SS and we looked elsewhere for a 3B. I would prefer Dave Bush to Capuano, but Capuano is a solid pitcher despite his bad luck induced ERA this year. In 05 and 06 he pitched 215+ Innings, and if he can do that while posting a league average ERA (which he is more than capable of doing with a better defense behind him), we would be winners in that deal.

by Bullet Bob Gibson on Nov 30, 2007 9:43 PM EST reply actions

Rosenthal and Gammons...

... are saying on the radio that there are discussions along the lines of Capuano+GwynnJr+Mench for Rolen+RHP.

in that situation, the RHP better not be Reyes, even if the Brewers take all of Rolen's salary. Mench does still hit lefties very well; he could platoon with Duncan/Edmonds alright, but he isn't signed (he's arb eligible). Gwynn Jr. just isn't any good, and he never will be. his highest MiLB OPS was .756, and that's as a 23 year old at AAA. he's young and fast, yeah, but we've already got Schumacher.

if the deal is for Rolen+Thompson+Rolen's salary, then go for it. but not for Rolen+Reyes.

by kindred on Nov 30, 2007 10:00 PM EST reply actions

Mench and Gwynn

how many 4th OF's does this team really need. I guess it might then free up the team to trade Duncan for something. Mench/Gwynn in LF, Edmonds in CF, Ankiel/Ludwick in RF or something along those lines. Gwynn becomes the backup CF along w/ Ankiel or Lud. Still, Rolen and Reyes(?) for 2 years of Capuano and 2 4th OF's? I'm gonna have to be sold on that one.

by chuckb on Nov 30, 2007 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

Bad deal

Gwynn and Mench would be of no use to us, or to anyone else in a future trade. Capuano's value would be diminished without Rolen on the field.

by liam on Nov 30, 2007 10:17 PM EST up reply actions

Mench...

I wouldn't say he's of no use. He's proven to be a pretty effective lefty masher.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 30, 2007 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

Point Conceded

Especially with Encarnacion, Eckstein, and Taguchi all gone—sadly, three of our better hitters against LHP.

I'm still confident enough in Rolen's ability to contribute on a daily basis to prefer we find a way to keep him around.

by liam on Nov 30, 2007 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

Mench

doesn't give the Cardinals any more than a Bobby Kielty signing would give them and he could probably be had for a year or two at less than $1 million while Mench will cost us double that in arbitration plus the fact that we have to trade for him. If the Cards can't get Capuano and Hall for Rolen/Reyes than I'm not for this trade at all.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

Oh, I agree...

I'm not advocating the trade at all. In fact, if that is all Rolen brings then you keep him.

I was just pointing out that Mench certainly isn't worthless.

I'm with you on Kielty btw. We need that one guy that just mashes lefties on our bench.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

i don't think it's that bad

but i'm of the school of thought that says Rolen is toast. Hall and Cap would be a little more like it.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Nov 30, 2007 10:31 PM EST up reply actions

Gwynn could be an all-star middle infielder..

that's where he belongs.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Nov 30, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions

That would be a horrible trade for us

Kevin Mench is a joke. He would be lucky to hit 10 HRS for us next year, the Brewers were thinking about releasing this guy a few weeks ago. Gwynn is just in the majors because of who his dad is and the Brewers were hoping he would somehow over night start hitting like his dad...it hasn't happened.

I'm sorry but I think we should keep Rolen if this is what we are going to get in return.

If this goes down with the signing of Izturis it will make us the worst offensive team in the NL. And probably a 5th place finish in the NL Central.

The boo birds will be in full force next year if we put a team on the field like this if this trade goes down.

by KYCards on Nov 30, 2007 11:28 PM EST up reply actions

well...

... Rolen hit 8 HRs last year in about 400 ABs. that's one per 50 ABs.

Mench hit 8 last year... in 288 ABs. or, about one per 35 ABs. in a strict platoon with Duncan, he'd likely do substantially better.

but really, the deal would be to acquire Capuano. his peripherals last year were still solid (K rate was still high, BB rate still low). his BABIP rate went up, but his HR rate actually went down last year, so he should move back towards the mean (in this case, that's positive) when it comes to runs allowed. in other words, he's still probably got something to give. we could be very hopeful that he'd be at least a league average pitcher, under our control for the next two years at reasonable rates.

plus, we'd be rid of Rolen's $36mn. even if you think he'll be worth $12mn this year, it's pretty silly to think he'll be worth it in two years, when he's 35 and his shoulder has deteriorated further.

by kindred on Nov 30, 2007 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

I would rather gamble that Rolen

get his numbers up rather than put a team on the field that will include Cesar Izturis, Kevin Mench & Adam Kennedy.

Imagine this line-up:

Kennedy
Ankiel
Pujols
Duncan
Mench
Edmonds/Gwynn
Molina
pitcher
Izturis

There will be so many easy outs in our line-up it will be embarrising.

by KYCards on Nov 30, 2007 11:57 PM EST up reply actions

weird line-up...

... you've got at least four OFers and no 3Bman. but whatever.

look, Izturis and Kennedy are in there regardless. Mench will be a part-time player + pinch-hitter. and Capuano isn't in the everyday lineup.

Rolen's OPS+ 05-07: 84, 126, 89
Mench's OPS+ 05-07: 104, 87, 90

Mench has actually played more games during that period, has no lingering health concerns, and will make roughly 1/3 of what Rolen makes with no long-term commitment. it's very possible that Rolen will be a worse offensive player than Mench next year and in the future (Mench is four years younger).

But even if he isn't... the Cards would be getting a pitcher with some clear upside who can reasonably be expected to perform at or near league average at below-market values for the next two years, plus will be clearing a large percentage of residual payroll off the books, not just for this year but for the next three years.

the value of the deal isn't Mench; it's Capuano + salary relief (plus the removal of clubhouse infighting, and the risk of further injury to Rolen). if we wanted to, we could then sign Mike Lamb for something like 1yr/$4mn. Lamb's OPS+ the last four years were 119, 81, 113, 112. at that point, it's about a salary wash for next year, but we've got Mench, Capuano, and Lamb in the place of an aging and declining (and injury-prone) Rolen. plus, we have no extended investments, so we have a lot more payroll flexibility for '09 and '10.

by kindred on Dec 1, 2007 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

Again

we are saving money to put one of the worst teams in baseball on the field.

I'm all for saving money if it will make the team better.

Look at 2009 FA Third basemen:
Joe Crede CWS
Morgan Ensberg SD
Troy Glaus TOR
Corey Koskie MIL
Greg Norton TB

Who would you like to spend the $8 M you saved on them for?

We'd have $40 M to spend in 2009. Think DeWitt would let them sign $40 M on free agent contracts in the off-season? I don't.

Maybe we will use that $40 M to extend some players on the roster. Of course, our roster would be filled with Pujols, Wainwright, Molina and a bunch of players who really shouldn't be locked up long term or are quite a ways away from FA.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 12:23 AM EST up reply actions

none of them...

... but i'd happily spend $4-6mn on any of them that will play more than 100 games in a year (roughly Rolen's average the past 3 seasons). or, i'd happily spend that $8 million on Rafael Furcal or somebody and plug the cheapest available 3B option in. or spend that $8 million plus some of Izzy/JED/Enc/Loop money on a high-end SP (Burnett?). or spend that $8 million plus some of the other money on a big-time RH OF power hitter. the fact that we're saving it from teh 3B position doesn't mean we have to spend it on the same position.

the simple fact is, i don't expect Rolen to make it through a full season anymore. and if he does, i don't expect him to be able to perform at a league-average offensive level. i'd rather take the cash plus Capuano and Mench at this point.

by kindred on Dec 1, 2007 12:41 AM EST up reply actions

The same AJ Burnett who has averaged

26 starts over the last 3 years and will demand over $13 M annually (walking away from $12 M/per)?

That's beside the point. When you remove Rolen, then you have to replace him with something. Maybe you don't think he'll play more than 100 games. (He played 142 + playoffs in 2006, 112 last season).

You can still keep Scott Rolen and sign your AJ Burnett. The Cardinals have roughly $25-$30 M to spend in 2009. Removing Rolen would give them $37 M - $42 M and they would need to find a SS, 3B, 2B, RH OF power bat and 2 starting pitchers.

I don't mind trading Rolen but we'd essentially be trading him for an older, more expensive version of Anthony Reyes and a slightly younger version of Skippy. Of course, with Kevin Mench's $4 M thrown in.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 12:54 AM EST up reply actions

We'd rid ourselves of Rolen's $36 M

very true.

Our payroll for this year (removing Rolen - adding Izturis/Capuano/Mench/Gwynn) would stay practically the same for this year (2.5+4+4+.5=11M) and the team would have added another Anthony Reyes, an lesser Aaron Miles and 2 more 5th OF'ers.

If that doesn't say playing for 2009, I don't know what does.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

well...

... we'd have $28mn less committed over the next three years (this trade doesn't include Izturis; he's signed regardless), we'd get a RH OF lefty-masher to fulfill a much-needed platoon situation and provide viable OF depth in case Ankiel flames out or JED or Dunc gets hurt. i don't see why looking past '08 is a bad thing at this point.

i don't think Capuano and Reyes are comparable at this point. Capuano's career numbers show him as a firmly average pitcher (ERA+ 101) with some upside. Reyes's career numbers show him as nowhere near that level of performance (ERA+ 81). Reyes's best year thus far is equivalent with Capuano's worst. Capuano's ZIPS projection is ERA: 4.48, IP: 195, K/BB: 154/52. his overall expected performance is just better than expected league-average performance.

Reyes's ZIPS is ERA: 4.65, IP: 149, K/BB: 106/45. his overall expected performance is below average, and he pitches 50 fewer innings.

Capuano has simply been a better pitcher so far in their careers, and he projects to be a better pitcher in the (short-term) future by at least one metric. and the Cardinals need pitching above all else.

i don't care about Gwynn Jr. i'd just as soon leave him out as take him, honestly (although i'm sure he still has options, and would likely just go to AAA, ready to fill in in a pinch). but overall, i don't see how this move really hurts the Cards, especially in the years past '08.

by kindred on Dec 1, 2007 12:34 AM EST up reply actions

I would rather get Bill Hall

than Kevin Mench. Hall has killed us every time he has played us at Busch. He seems to like hitting there. He can put up a lot better numbers than Mench and play several positions.

I just don't see any upside with Kevin Mench at all. I don't think he is even a "masher" at this point. He's just another guy like Izturis who is still in the majors because he is living off of 1 or 2 decent years a couple of years ago.

I also don't really see the point of "saving money" from getting rid of Rolen when they are just going to use the cash to sign players that are just trash from other teams.

I also don't think the Cards are going to spend this "extra money" on a top market free agent be it a hitter or a pitcher in '09 or '10, if there are even any big names to be had. The Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, ect. will beat us out everytime in the free agent market. So this "let's save the money for a couple of years from now" is just some kind of wishfull dream I'm afraid.

We are the Fred Sanford of baseball, looking through the trash hoping to find a treasure. Sometimes it happens but not too often.

by KYCards on Dec 1, 2007 1:05 AM EST up reply actions

Fred Sanford

Hear me Elizabeth? i`m coming to join you honey!!!

lol where did you get that analogy?
The Fred Sanford of baseball LOL I gotta remember that one lol...

by Calhoun on Dec 1, 2007 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not an Anthony Reyes cheerleader

but both Reyes and Capuano in their first real stint in baseball got a 17 start sample size:

Reyes (2006)
88 ERA+
5.06 ERA
85.3 IP
72:34 K:BB

Cappy (2004)
87 ERA+
4.99 ERA
88.3 IP
80:37 K:BB

In 2005, Capuano came out and put out a 107 ERA+ in 35 starts.
In 2007, Reyes sucked starting and in his two awful relief appearances with a 73 ERA+.

Reyes, of course, is a year behind Capuano (younger when came up to the big leagues) as far as development. As much as I distrust Reyes ability to be a legit big league pitcher, I'd rather only have 1 of him on the team and not add an older, more expensive version of him.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 1:22 AM EST up reply actions

except capuano has actually had success

i don't see how capuano qualifies as "another reyes" -- they don't pitch with the same hand, they're not the same type of pitcher (GB/FB), and they're different ages with different experience. they're really only "the same" insofar as they're both starting pitchers who happen to have put up similar numbers over their first 17 games.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

what the hell

is MO thinking? seriously some body get me the man's phone #. some one needs to talk some sense into him.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 1, 2007 1:55 AM EST up reply actions

What the hell is he thinking?

He's thinking about reading VEB and seeing how much everyone here seems to overvalue Anthony Reyes. What you're seeing is probably the actual market value for a pitcher like Reyes. There would be a vast difference in his value if he was still a prospect with no big league experience, but he's shown nothing at the big league level, then gets sent down and dominates AAA. His fastball wasn't popping for most of last year and he doesn't have a good out pitch or a decent breaking ball. That would be fine if he was the right handed version of Tom Glavine, but he's not, and I think we're seeing that most other teams know this as well.

As I said I don't like this deal unless Hall is included. Hall solves a number of problems for the Cardinals, and if they could sign a Mike Lamb or Joe Crede to fill the gap at 3B we'd have a lineup and rotation that looks like this:

Kennedy/Ryan
Ankiel
Pujols
Hall
Duncan
Edmonds
Crede/Lamb
Molina
P

Wainwright
Capuano
Pineiro
Looper
Mulder

Capuano vastly improves our rotation because he's a lefty, he's going to log innings, and he's going to be better than league average and possibly as good as a solid #2 pitcher. The only problem I see with this lineup is that there's no good leadoff hitter, but hell the Cardinals haven't had one of those since Vince Coleman so that's no surprise.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 10:06 AM EST up reply actions

Reyes

Reyes had to be hurt last year before he said he was hurt. His FB has zero pop he was living in the 87-88 MPH range which is not getting it done with how stright he throws that puppy.

His mechanics seemed less fluid than ever, and he did not have a 2nd pitch with is FB being so bad.

He may be a damaged goods guy, but I would think with the way scouting is anymore you don't sneek damaged goods by teams. Especially when the damaged goods had not proven anything. And I am sorry but his one hit game vs. the Sox and the WS game 1 start are not near enough examples. Any pitcher at the MLB level has had at least two appearances/starts that make them look to be the next CY Young. Reyes will probably not fetch much talent at this point. What you see seems to be a fair trade.

I think STL needs to think about how injured the guy is. I think it has nothing to do with working with Duncan at all. There was not talk about Duncan and Reyes when Reyes was pitching decent/good at times in years past. It came up a lot this year when Anthony was bad.

If he does not project out then trade him now. If he does not project out to be much more than a #4 or #5 I would say trade him. You HAVE to trust your system to produce #4 & #5 starters, and if you can't do that your system sucks really bad and your team will never be more than mediocre to bad.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 1, 2007 10:35 AM EST up reply actions

mench and gwynn?

They might as well throw me and their bat boy into the deal, we'll all be equally valuable to the Cardinals.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 1, 2007 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

Coleman was an awful leadoff hitter

career OBP -- .324. Just b/c he was fast doesn't make him a good leadoff hitter. You can't steal first. He did have a year w/ StL w/ a .363 OBP -- that year he was a good leadoff hitter but on balance -- no, not at all.

Vina had years w/ StL w/ .380 OBP and a .353 OBP -- he was a pretty good leadoff hitter for 2 years w/ the Cards.

by chuckb on Dec 1, 2007 10:24 AM EST reply actions

And

Coleman never got on base a lot, but when he did he wreaked havoc on pitching staffs because of the options presented for those Cardinal teams. Straight steal, hit and run, and any time he got to first he could swipe second and immediately be in scoring position. He also opened up the middle infield for the guys behind him because of the threat to steal. I miss those days in baseball where you could win with good pitching and no big slugger in the middle of the lineup and I dearly wish they'd come back.

Totally forgot about Vina being a leadoff guy, and he was a solid option for St. Louis when he was there.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

To bad

I was like 7 when Ozzie Smith retired, so I never really got to see the stolen base era, but you can thank TLR and guys like him for the end of it. With pitchers deliverys being timed, and the revolution of the catchers postion, the stolen base has kind of died down. I think the only teams left that are anything like that are the D-backs and the Angles, and the Angles have Vlad so they don't even really count.

Also I know the numbers don't really show it, but I thought Eckstein did a ok job at leadoff. If nothing else he saw alot of pitches, and helped set up Pujols. His best moment as a card had to be in the 2005 playoffs when the redbirds where down to there final strike, and Eck got a base hit off of Lights out Lidge, to start the rally that ended with Pujols.

Save the Kipper don't make him go back out there.

by gibbyfan on Dec 1, 2007 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

there are other factors

teams built for power rather than speed, steroids, smaller ballparks, removal of astroturf, etc. it's been a game-wide change. but those mid-'80s teams were and will remain my favorite cardinals teams ever because of their unique style of play.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

Absolutely

Speed could be the biggest difference in a one run game instead of the walk off homer from a guy hitting one into the first outfield row in a bandbox stadium, those days were much more exciting. Managers even had to manage. But I think we're in the minority now....the HR is king on sports TV for the average fan.

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 3, 2007 7:37 AM EST up reply actions

RASMUSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Dec 1, 2007 10:57 AM EST reply actions

tourrette's?

what is this in response to?

the kid hasn't even been to aaa yet. there's no need to rush him.

but i will continue to pose the question, "if rasmus comes up, what other outfielder(s) go?" these decisions don't happen in a vacuum.

by willievinceterry on Dec 1, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

Bully

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 2, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

Skip

problem solved.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 2, 2007 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

Number 87!!

Bingo!! All I am saying, is give Skip a chance.....

Trade for Sean Rodriguez! (But please dont call him S-Rod!)

by cardschinmusic on Dec 3, 2007 7:39 AM EST up reply actions

brew with a head

every trade possibility with the brewers is riddled with risk and cloudy crystal balls when talking about injured players or those who lost their edge. reyes for capuano (mike maroth of the nl central?) may make sense for us, but rolen for mench is way out there. the crew has no room for capuano in terms of the opportunity cost, so where do they put him (or reyes if they get him)? we have room for reyes roster wise, so we are under less roster pressure. in both cases, however, the teams would be looking for the most recent past to not repeat itself. if reyes repeats and capuano does, in terms of w-l, then we and the brewers did not gage the value of a change of scenery properly. if both change for the better, then the brewers win because they have reyes under control longer. so who's smarter/luckier? what's the line in vegas?

i see no reason to add rolen at his present value, though i understand how he would make the brewers much more formidable from a defensive perspective alone. . if rolen gets even one good month under his belt this spring, his value is likely to significantly increase. that seems the risk to take at this point. in the end i'm afraid they are talking about rolen for capuano. i suspect BOB would be the big loser there.

basically, it sucks to be poor.

by sportsman on Dec 3, 2007 12:51 AM EST reply actions