the matrix
by lboros on Oct 30, 2007 9:38 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printin yesterday's thread somebody asked for a look at the current roster matrix. with the new gm about to begin his duties and the roster rebuild officially underway, i guess we're about due for that. so here it is --- and it ain't pretty:
2008 ROSTER MATRIX
THE BASELINE
| STARTING 8 | BENCH | ROTATION | PEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| molina c $1.2m |
spiezio ut $2.3m |
wainwright rhp $450K |
is'hausen rhp $8m |
| pujols 1b $16m |
schumaker $400K |
looper rhp $5.5m |
franklin rhp $2.3m |
| kennedy 2b $3.5m |
miles if $1.2m |
pineiro rhp $5m |
springer rhp $3.5m |
| rolen 3b $12m |
taguchi of $1.1m |
mulder lhp $6.5m |
flores lhp $1m |
| ryan ss $400K |
ludwick of $400K |
reyes rhp $400K |
johnson lhp $400K |
| duncan lf $450K |
encarnacion rf $6.5m |
carpenter rhp $10.5m |
wellemeyer rhp $900K |
| edmonds cf $8m |
barden if memphis |
hawksworth rhp memphis |
thompson rhp $450k |
| ankiel rf $1m |
rodriguez of memphis |
parisi rhp memphis |
cavazos rhp memphis |
| TOTAL $42.5m |
TOTAL $11.9m |
TOTAL $28.4m |
TOTAL $16.5m |
| OVERALL | PAYROLL: | $99.3m |
i triple-checked the numbers, and they add up --- $99m already on the books, before a single upgrade to the roster has been made. this chart assumes that the cards pick up the option on taguchi (which might not, and prob'y should not, happen). the cards have four arb-eligible players --- molina, ankiel, miles, and wellemeyer --- so i've taken educated guesses at what they'll be paid. pujols, carpenter, looper, encarnacion, kennedy, and mulder all have built-in raises this year, while springer and franklin will start new, richer contracts; taken together, these increases bloat the payroll by about $11m without adding any new talent. the matrix counts deferred salary as a present-year expense, because that's how mlb calculates payroll for luxury-tax purposes.
for purposes of comparison, the opening-day rotation last year (carp looper wells wainwright reyes) cost a total of $18m; the starting 8 cost $48m; the bench made collective $5.5m; and the bullpen made $14m. this year's high bottom-line salary for the bench players is misleading, as it includes an ostensible starter (encarnacion); but then, the starting 8 total is commesurately lowered by juan's absence. (the matrix needs a separate category this year for non-performing assets --- en'cion, carpenter, mulder.) the two injured starting pitchers (mulder and carp) will earn nearly as much as 2007's entire opening-day rotation.
if i recall correctly, dewitt says he's willing to increase the bottom line into the $110m to $115m range, which means there is $10m to $15min left in the till for a new ss, #2 starting pitcher, and right-handed bat for the outfield. . . . . they could trim a million here or there, but unless they move scott rolen i don't see a whole lot of wiggle room until 2009, when they'll net a payroll savings of more than $30m. by then, there'll be some players on the market who might even be worth the money.
not an easy knot for mr. antonetti to untangle; he'll have to be creative. ideas, anyone?
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$100 Million
thanks lb
also, you didnt put a backup catcher, so you may as well say $100m right now
and i agree with you, there are no easy slashes to get more flexible in '08
I was going
ugly ugly ugly
And I agree that there isn't much, other than dumping Rolen, they can do to make it much better. Even non-tendering Miles and letting So walk only saves a couple of million . . . which probably doesn't get them to a difference-maker at any of the three positions you mention.
Any way to account for the portion of Carp's contract that insurance will cover? If it covers, for example, half, that gives us up to $20m to spend, which makes the situation seem at least a little less desperate
speaking of insurance
by SmashedAtoms on Oct 30, 2007 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty sure Enc's contract isn't insured
Dayton Moore
by Toddius396 on Oct 30, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't count on Carp's insurance money
that's just an accounting practice
It is counted
Look at the increase in payroll. Carpenter makes $10.5 M next year. How much is payroll going up over the final cost of the 2007 payroll? Roughly the same amount.
DeWitt isn't really raising payroll, he's just replacing what he's getting from Carpenter's insurance.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
That is ugly
That said, there are places to cut:
Miles and Taguchi are the two easy places to start since replacement players like Hoffpauir and Skip are already around.
That Springer contract at 3.5 million really hurts and is likely un-movable. The Franklin contract at 2.3 million, however, is very trade-able, especially to a team looking for bullpen help (Indians, D-Backs, Braves).
Ankiel at $1 million might be a bit too expensive to keep around. Maybe you can couple him with Franklin and bring back a decent player (a mid level starter) in return.
At 450k, Duncan is far to valuable to be traded away, but Reyes is still a steal and provides some nice value to a team. What would it take to send Reyes to the D-Backs for Carlos Quintin? Two young talents with injury and performance problems.
A few moved to bring together a 2009 outfield of Duncan, Rasmus, and Quintin would go a long way to providing the Cards with a cheap but productive team in 2009 (and lots of payroll flexibility to add a major starting pitcher).
ankiel
the power he can supply at anytime, even off the bench and his rocket arm
if he were a free agent, im figuring 5 mill wouldnt be hard for him to get
how many people did he hold to a single that should have been a double in his 7 weeks
Ludwick's not really a starter...
No
The reason for his career splits (Aside from chance) is pretty simple, actually: A lot of his ABs vs. lefties have come pinch-hitting or in late innings, which brings down everyone's numbers. FYI, he hit .387/.444/.871 vs. lefties in his limited time at Memphis last year.
by cpebbles on Oct 30, 2007 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Ugh
I wonder if a desperate (and rich) Yankees team would take him off our hands for Wilson Betemit. The average St. Louis fan would hate that trade, but we've gotta cut some payroll somewhere, and Rolen really isn't worth 12 million, even with the defense. Especially considering his relationship with Tony. Betemit could fill in until we sign a more premier third baseman (we don't have anyone very close in the farm). Let's not forgot that Rolen 12m doesn't go away for three more years either.
12 M could buy a pretty decent starting pitcher, probably through trade.
Bad if not impoosible idea.
Rolen's value is at an all-time low. Basically given his contract and injury status, he has negative trade value. We should keep him and hope he comes back to some degree in '08.
What aboutt...?
1B - Pujols
2B - Kennedy/Miles/Hoffpaiur
SS - Ryan/Miles
3B - Barden/Miles/Hoffpaiur
That's 6 guys for 4 positions, much like it has been in the past.
That would make Spiezio and his $2.3 million available for trade as well. We might get an older A-ball prospect (or something comperably little) for him.
Assuming we allow the OF to consist of Edmonds, Ankiel, Ludwick, Duncan, and Schumaker, that takes Taguchi's $1.1 million away as well. Overall, the savings would be at $15.4 million (minus Barden's salary and the salary of a backup catcher TBD.) We're looking at $14 million there and the $10-$15 Dewitt is willing to spend.
24-29 million dollars is a lot of money to spend on a starter that can make an impact (Livan Hernandez, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, Josh Fogg - if his contract was not picked up).
I dunno...just kinda typing my thoughts of the moment.
stlfan
Barden
by Toddius396 on Oct 30, 2007 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Rolen's Market
As for the Yanks, B-Cash doesn't make moves like that anymore and I doubt the Steinbrenner Sons would force his hand. Betemit is young w/ upside and the Yanks are committing to a more youthful look.
I think a more likely trading partner would be the Dodgers. And on that front, I note that Mr. Matt Kemp has fallen out of disregard and is on the block:
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-plaschke26sep26,1,2152526,full.column?coll=la-headlines-sports
by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
and with regard
by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
by Toddius396 on Oct 30, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
LaRoche/Kemp
by DenverCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Word on the street
stlfan
Plaschke
Plashcke
by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Encarnation
why in the world would he retire?
Retire? He got injured on the
Looper
I think Loop has potential to be....
Ideas?
Savings: $2.3 M
Trade Looper and Ankiel
Savings: $6.5 M
Total Savings: $8.8 M
Total Availible: $18.8 M
Needs: #2 Starting pitcher, impact bat (OF or SS)
Rotation
Wainwright
EMPTY
Pineiro
Mulder
Thompson/Johnson/Wellemeyer/Boggs
If we trade Ankiel, it opens a hole up in one of the OF spots. We can either fill that hole with an impact bat or fill the hole at SS with an impact bat.
Can you get a frontline starter and an impact bat for $9 M each/avg?
Well, as much as I dislike him being a Cardinal, you could:
Anthony Reyes, Bryan Anderson, Joe Mather and PTBNL for Jason Bay and Jack Wilson.
Might have to throw in another pitcher going the other way.
Wilson makes $6.5, $7.25 and has a $600k '10 buy out.
Bay costs $5.75 and $7.5 M for 08 and 09.
They increase the payroll by $11.25, leaving you $7 M (or $12.55 in a $115 M payroll) to get a starting pitcher.
Why does every deal involve fleecing the Pirates? :D
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:09 AM EDT reply actions
Forgot to repair the lineup
Kennedy 2B
Edmonds CF
Pujols 1B
Duncan RF
Bay LF
Rolen 3B
Molina C
Pitcher P
Wilson SS
Not that much better, but a start in the right direction...sorta.
Remove Wilson from the deal, leave Ryan as the leadoff hitter/SS. Save more money to spend on pitcher.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
i agree
jason bay might come too expensive if minnesota really would give up matt garza for him
The only reason
Wilson is a very good defensive SS
The ZiPs projections for both:
PLAYER AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K
Bay .265 .361 .478 154 565 92 150 32 2 28 89 81 149
Wilson .261 .313 .361 141 518 62 135 24 2 8 42 36 54
Neither spectacularly amazing. But if you can fill the need at SS and the RH OF bat at the same time, might as well try.
Wilson was 4.5 BtRns and 0.4 BtWin last year.
Eckstein was -3.2 BtRns and -0.3 BtWin last year.
Man, Eckstein truly was AWFUL.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Even with Wilson's glove
wilson is far above...
Jack Wilson
Based on what?
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
on ankiel again
we wouldnt trade yadi to save 600k
i think its basically the same thing
this guy has larry walkers arm in RF
i dont think you get near his potential for close to his salary
Sure you can
Defense?
Unfortunately, he also takes Encarnacion routes to balls on occassion.
An arm does not a good defensive player make.
yes
He's like Happy Gilmore, he already posses leaps above everybody else in the hard part, now work on his short game.
BTW
You can also trade Yadi
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Additionally
I like Yadi and would miss him, but he might be one of our best trading options.
Yadi ain't goin'
Unless Anderson is the second coming of Ivan Rodriguez with the bat (which has yet to be proved), trading Molina weakens the team... you need his arm/defensive skills to keep the double play in order for your "groundball" pitching staff.
Let the new GM address the team's most pressing needs first; then take whatever money's "left over" to fill out the bench. (I was of the opinion that Gooch was without a contract for 2008... if he is, I doubt the Cards re-sign him.)
by The Ol Goaler on Oct 30, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
What?
Wouldn't that depend on the return? What if it netted a proven young ace?
I agree that moving Yadi wouldn't make Tony very happy, but by next year he'll be arb eligible and start to get expensive.
He'll still be quite valuable and you very well could have a young, cheap replacement ready. It makes alot of sense to at least entertain the idea.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
That's just not true
The number of runs he saves the Cards, his defensive reputation notwithstanding, is somewhere on the order of 15-20 per year -- that's no more than 2 wins. It won't be long until Anderson's offense is 2 wins better than Yadi's. Trading Molina does not weaken the team if he's replaced by an above-average (for a C) offensive player UNLESS Yadi significantly improves his offense. He's going to have to do that, and quickly, to justify remaining a Cardinal.
Yadi stays
2 years?
However, if he starts at Memphis (and he very well could) and goes on to hit .290/.360/.420 with improved defense...he'd be knocking on the door.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Not yet
I like this idea
by joecardsfan on Oct 30, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
are the pirates
by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
no, they are not
haha
by dontEATnachos on Oct 30, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
That's assuming
Lack of Pitching is what hurt us last year...
Wainright
Willis = Reyes, Anderson...
Mulder
Piniero
Looper
I think that is all it would take. I do understand we need to go over Willis with a fine tooth comb so we don't end up in another Mulder type trade. Also if Mulder doesn't make it bring up one of the kids from the farm system an slide Looper into the 4th spot. Bullpen looks good and hopefully Kinney will be back and effective. If you really want to move Rolen go for it but I think a full year of Ank/Luds coupled with more at bats for Duncan will repair the offense regardless of what Rolen does. How about Duncan & Rolen to the Dodgers for a young 3B prospect?
Willis?
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
There are so many reasons to pass
Why?
Didn't you read my post........
He made 6million + for 2007 and his mechanics are bizarre. I just don't see him as being the kind of pitcher that Mr. Duncan can help. And you would be putting him on a team that expects a lot, and he would be the only African-American on the team. Nope. I want to see Dontrelle smiling when he's pitching. I can't see that happening to him here. Poor fit for so many reasons....seriously, I wouldn't see him lasting through the year here.
Jeez Jill...
That DOES rub those in current
No
Buying low?
Peripherals? His Whip was 1.60, he gave up 29 dingers, and his K:BB fell below 2 to 1. Opponents hit .294 and OPSed .840 off of him. His BABIP was a little high at .328, but when your GB rate drops and your LD rate rises...that's bound to happen. The guy was pounded this year, and has been declining since he came in the league.
He's a gimmick pitcher. Looks like the league is catching on more and more. Not to mention it's been reported he has shoulder problems, although he denies it.
Nope. It'd be foolish to pay the king's ransom the Marlins will demand.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That really is a bad team
Trading Rolen to the Yankees makes a ton of sense but I just don't see it being very probable. I can't even see them making a Rolen for Betemit swap (unless we took on a hefty chunk of the salary, defeating most of the purpose anyway). What did the Yanks give up for Betemit last season anyway?
Assuming Eck is not resigned and Rolen is not traded, the only way I can see to upgrade the team that is even halfway possible would be to trade Duncan for Burnett/Garland and sign Milton Bradley to take Duncan's place. Significant upgrade to our laughable rotation without a significant downgrade on offense.
Who does trading Rolen
The Yankees could get Mike Lowell, move Robinson Cano to 3B (like they've talked about) or get someone through trade that ISN'T a huge injury risk and save themselves the money.
The Cardinals would have to view it as a straight salary dump because the Yankees aren't just giving away the farm anymore.
Scott Rolen would NEVER approve that deal, no matter how much he hates TLR.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
But it's the Yankees....
Am I being too cynical? :)
by joecardsfan on Oct 30, 2007 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think
Rolen doesn't seem to fit the Yanks current M.O. particularly if it is going to cost them some of their homegrown prospects. Cash will ante up for J.Santana, but I can't imagine he'd ante up for Rolen. I would be very surprised.
by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
As much as I love Rolen, I'd still like to see the Yanks revert to old ways. Wishful thinking, I know....
by joecardsfan on Oct 30, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
wow...
by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
pinstripes...
Cabrera isn't really a 3B.
by JI on Oct 30, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
completely agree
The question i have is, how reasonable is it for the cards to trade duncan's kid? Will it even factor into the new GM's decision? Obv it shouldn't.
I'd be willing to trade Rolen even if was just a salary dump. i'm tired of everyone expecting him to suddenly return to '04 form. his shoulder is a CRONIC issue. He is what he is. At this point, I say get what you can for him and move on. We have got to stop counting on injured veterans every season. Does anyone remember if he has a full or partial no-trade clause?
Options
Bay and Wilson for Thompson, Reyes, and Duncan. Make Franklin or Wellemeyer a starter.
Trade Reyes for Quentin, play Ryan at short and sign Schilling.
Sign Milton Bradley, trade Reyes for Jack Wilson, start Wellemeyer.
What I like is that this roster
I'm hoping for the latter. That would also be an interesting shot across the bow of TLR.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 30, 2007 10:36 AM EDT reply actions
This sure does squash
by jeff abs on Oct 30, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions
I'm not sure how we can trade away cheap talent
If Antonetti does come in, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals fanbase takes the "cold-hearted" approach that the young stats guys are taking, such as not re-signing Thome in Cleveland, or trading Nomar at his near peak in Boston. This team needs to get younger (and cheaper), which means trading away high-priced assets for prospects (since the farm isn't going to produce too much).
Depo trading
I fear that Molina will be moved soon before he asks for 3 years $25M and the fans will freak.
Minor League Experts
Anderson
Because you want him to play a lot
Izzy has a no trade clause...
It looks like...
Have we though
Man we are somewhere here
Rock =X=== Hard Place.
We may be closer to a Hard Place.
Buy Low, Sell High
Rolen, Edmonds, Mulder, Encarnacion and Kennedy all have negative trade value, so they aren't worth trading.
I agree...
I know its a risk considering his health issues, but I'd keep him in my back pocket till two weeks before the deadline. That is when his value will be peaking. If/when Izzy is dealt, please be in July.
by MrPlow on Oct 30, 2007 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Trading Izzy
would izzy waive the clause to go to a contender? Any of the losers in the Rivera chase would be pretty desperate for a top-notch closer. We should capitalize on their panic
He even stated that he wouldn't back in July
Someone would have to be willing
Bernie & Izzy
I hope it is him however. I really get the impression he would never throw 8+ million dollars at a reliever.
That is probably my biggest beef with Jocketty...his contract extensions. Why did we have to extend Jimmy last year? He was already under contract. How much less would he have signed for after this year's production.
Why did we have to extend Izzy in 2005? He had an option in 2006 and obviously prefers to stay in the area. Only one reliever in baseball has made more money over the last three years...Mariano Rivera. Is Izzy that elite? Is he the second best closer in baseball? Is he a HOF closer like Mo?
God I hope it's Antonetti.
Brace Yourselves Amigos
- Rasmus excels in Memphis, has some coffee in September
- Garcia and Walters end the year at Memphis
- Joe Mather tears up AAA
- Rick Ankiel is good enough to get 500 AB
- Chris Duncan and Anthony Reyes are parlayed into a young starter like Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, or Shaun Marcum
- Rolen recovers as a hitter
- Carp returns in August and makes 5-10 starts
- Josh Kinney comes back as Josh Kinney
- Jarrett Hoffpauir displaces Aaron Miles in ST and earns 300 AB
don't forget
during the season or
by DesmetMattdNYC on Oct 30, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
towards the tail end.
Yes, he does have atleast 3 years left if he...
by DesmetMattdNYC on Oct 30, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is that so bad?
re the best case scenario
- a return to health from Carp and Rolen (to either get more production from Scotty or re-establish his trade value)
- the continued rise of Colby Rasmus
- the establishment of Ankiel as a bonda fide starter
- the addition of a young starter with #2/3 upside to go with Carp and AW
- the continued ascent of Walter and Garcia to be ready to contribute in 2009
- Joe Mather as trade bait or better fielding version of Duncan in LF
- the end of Aaron Miles getting 300 AB as a Cardinal
I guess I am out of my mind
The only way we trade Rolen is if he wants to be traded. Making him feel unwelcome so he asks to be traded would be a shitty thing to do. I don't thnk this is the kind of organization that would do such a thing. I know it is just a gut feeling but trading Rolen would be a mistake.
If we look to '09 for players why can't we look to '09 for dollars. Loop, Jaun, JimmE, and Izzy are all gone. (Cards have an option on Mulder.)Why not take it on the chin one year and let the pay roll balloon, and have it come back down to 115m in '09. Plus there probablely is insurance money to reduce the out of pocket cost.
This situation still doesn't prevent the Duncan/plus for A. J. Burnett idea that has been floating around here. I wouldn't mind this trade if Burnett will take back his option. He is 12m of the 18.3 mil left in LB's matrix(minus Miles and Taguchi). Then a signing of Milton Bradley for 1y 5m with an option leaves 1.3 mil for Jose Molina, and the Cards make the 115m budget.
Reyes is the fifth starter. If the Cards don't want Reyes then they need to sign a FA pitcher causing the budget to balloon, or trade Reyes for pitching.
Schilling says we wants to stay in Boston, and he really doesn't want to run bases. So to get him for one year the Cards would need to pay. Say 14m. Mulder and Carp are do 16.5m combined. Anybody know if we can get half that in insurance? If so we have an out of pocket for Schilling for 6 mil. There is the balloon. Reyes could then be traded for an infield prospect like Brandon Wood. Lot a folks here like Quentin, but I like an infield prospect makes more sense. If a FA signing is not possible then trading Reyes of pitching might be.
There was rumor and speculation that the White Sox were interested in Reyes. How serious were they? The talk was Reyes/Schu plus for Buehrle. Could Reyes be a center of a Garland trade?
Burnett
Wainman
Schilling/Garland/Reyes
Loop
Piniero
I believe this is possible. With Reyes 115m. With Schill/Garland the budget balloons to 127m minus what ever insurance the Cards can get.
Seriously folks I have to ask why no love for Miles? He is a back up middle infielder who hit .290. I know an OPS of 676 is weak, but he is a back up middle infielder.
You're adding
Well,
Management doesn't seam to want Reyes. If Schill can not be landed then trading Reyes for one year of Garland might not be the best thing, but I don't believe Reyes has much of a trading value now. Certainly not as much as last off season. That's when I really was hoping the Cards would trade him.
It is possible that Reyes needs to go to Toronto with Duncan. I really don't think these moves will kill the farm system, but yes I am willing to spike payroll one year.
My main point is that this team is a good team, and with a couple of pitchers they will be in the playoffs next year. I honestly do not understand all the pessimism and negativity.
"this team is a good team"
I agree that the offense might not be so bad (and will improve) if Rolen can produce like he did in 2006. A core of Pujols, Duncan, and '06 Rolen isn't half bad.
That said, with deals like Juan E., Kennedy, and Springer combined with injured players like Mulder and Carpenter, the Cards are short on talent and on free cash. The minor league system will help some in late 2008 and 2009, but for a full revival, that talent won't arrive until 2010 at the earliest.
This is not a good team that is 1 or 2 players away. We should stop patching the holes and go for something much more substantial if the Cards want to make it to the playoffs in the next 3 or 4 years for more than just a 2004-2006 swan song.
"This is not a good team...
I would argue that it is. Our outfield is going to be one of the best, if not THE best offensively in the league next year, we have Albert and AW and a lights-out bullpen, our world-class defensive catcher has figured out how to hit, etc. If Carpenter and Rolen were healthy we'd be the class of the NL.
How in the name of everything
take a deep breath
OPS home / away
Holliday 1.157 / .860
Hawpe 1.017 / .831
Taveras .776 / .722
Spillbourghs .888 / .815
There's a good chance our outfield could be better than their neutralized offensive numbers. We won't be better than their mile-high inflated numbers (wasn't the humidor supposed to fix that?), but we'd be close if we got a healthy year from Duncan, a comeback year from Edmonds, and 800 combined PA's for Ankiel/Ludwick. If we aren't the best we'll be in the top 2 or 3.
Colo
Edmonds (how old is he now?), IF a combined 800 PA's from Ankiel and Ludwick, and IF Duncan is healthy all year, don't you think the Colo OF is just going to get better as well? Epecially Hawpe and Holliday?
Plus, the Rox have way more chips to trade to improve their CF spot if needed.
The humidor did achieve it's desired effect: forcing Coor's Field to play more like parks at sea level. Why don't you pull up the home/road splits for the Phillies OFers? I would think those would be more severe.
Hope you're right re: top 2 or 3 OF's in the NL, but unfortunately I don't possess your Cardinal-colored glasses. ;)
Also, speaking of Phi, I sure hope we don't go after Rowand as a temporary fix. Do like the Rox did: suck it up for a couple of years, purge books of bloated contracts, scout well, scout well, scout Latin America, draft well, draft well, draft well.
Never thought I'd be advocating the Cards should follow Colorado's example! ;)
by DenverCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
it's hard to tell if
Anyway I took a similar look at Philly back in the playoffs. The splits were similarly ridiculous; I think that Ludwick would have 35+ HR power if he played in Philadelphia (or Colorado, or Cincinnati). Before you laugh at that, consider that he was on pace for 25+ in STL this season...
Colorado's OF
When Rasmus comes up, it becomes a pretty good OF.
Can we give Duncan, Ludwick, Ankiel
Even including Holliday's inflated Colorado statistics, Duncan's age-25 season OBP matched Holliday's, and his age-25 SLG was 100 points higher. Duncan's age-26 season was on a similar curve prior to the injury (.287/.378/.554 vs .326/.387/.586). Next year will be his age 27 season, and I expect a lot out of him. I also expect a decline for Holliday, as he won't keep up a .380 BABIP with a 19.3% LD rate and his performance is so highly dependent on his batting average. I really think Duncan is at least close to being an equivalent hitter, and Holliday is no great fielder.
Anyway this is my last word on this, at least for now, unless you have something particularly insightful to add; we can come back and talk about it again this time next year. I'm not afraid to admit that I've been very wrong before, in particular with my predictions for Kennedy and Encarnacion last year, but I was also right about Duncan and Ludwick and Reyes (I was calling for Duncan to be our starting LF in 2006 and wanted Ludwick to make the team out of spring training -- if the latter had happened, given our complete lack of offense in April/May, we might have been playing in October).
Are you crazy?
Edmonds: Aging and slipping on both sides of the ball.
Ankiel: Power and a good arm, but outfield d can still be an adventure sometimes and no plate discipline
Bench: Some combination of career AAAA players
I can think of the following outfields that might well out produce that group:
Colorado (Holiday and Hawpe alone make this a mismatch)
Mets (Beltran along with Alou and the youngsters is a pretty good group)
Arizona (Upton, Young, and Eric)
Houston (Penace and Lee offensively can get it done)
And there are others that might put it together to be better (LA, Cubs, Brewers, and Reds).
Your premise is wrong re Miles.
And the goatee. Dude, it's so 2000.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 30, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
But he is not
Oh one thing guys a goatee is a beard on the chin only. A mustache and a goatee together is call a Van Dyke.
Aaron Miles needs to go.
Read this to understand why there is no love for Aaron Miles by the consensus here. His .290 average is so hollow, it is the only stat of his that looks good.
Don't you think Kennedy/B. Ryan can take care of Miles' offensive/defensive limited contributions?
Bob
I wouldn't be suprised if Miles is on the 25 man roster, and Hoff starts the season in Memphis. I am not advocating this.
I know Miles was asked to do much more than he is capable of, but that's not his fault. I am just saying why take it out on him.
It goes w/o saying we're not blaming Miles
by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 30, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Aaron Miles
(Although, if they come within a win or two of the playoffs, the difference between you and a replacement level player might be the difference between October baseball.)
Why no love for Miles??
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
don't completelyneglect the offense...
they'll be better than last year
One thing
I don't know how that figures into the salary table, but it's money the club is spending so I'm assuming it doesn't help any.
Don't think
Let's just trade for Miguel Cabrera...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 30, 2007 1:58 PM EDT reply actions
No, NO, NO
- Don't have enough to get him, and if you do, our system is so weak we can't afford to send our 4 best youngsters for one player.
- Where will he play? He's eaten himself off of 3B and the OF. He's a 1B/DH and we have a first baseman and they won't let us use a DH.
He can flat out rake, no doubt. However, this guy is Manny Jr. He has repeatedly been "talked to" about his lack of hustle and poor attitude. Wait til the guy gets to a big market, he'll be the biggest primadona in the game.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Manny is still
We still shouldn't trade for Cabrera, but not b/c he's going to turn into Manny Ramirez. 29 teams would be pretty fortunate to have Manny Ramirez on their roster. We shouldn't trade for him b/c of what it would cost in terms of prospects -- starting w/ Colby Rasmus.
I could learn to love Manny's right handed
Think you missed it...
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone else get the feeling that this will
and sign Milton Bradley and Wade Miller?
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 2:00 PM EDT reply actions
I'm with you, brother..
Nope...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 30, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
By splash
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
or it could be the splash made
Goold's Take..
http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bird-land/2007/10/what-renteria-teaches-us/
Along the line of what we're discussing here.
Boomer.
Goold
The Braves, earlier this season, were able to swing the deal for switch-hitting Mark Teixeira because catcher Brian McCann was blocking the plate from prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There's a good chance both will be the same All-Star Game -- on opposite teams, granted -- in the near future.
Sounds like a situation we are in. I'm not saying that Yadi or Anderson are the caliber of those two, but there is certainly going to be a similiar situation in 2009 and beyond.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Antonetti official?
It's kinda scary 'cause the last time somebody jumped the gun this year, they were saying that the Rockies would be playing the Indians in the world series.
So if you did make an assumption, let's hope it comes true.
Context clues
But, Bernie also has said things like the AJ Burnett thing was a done deal.
question from Hawai`i
by hawaiifan on Oct 30, 2007 2:27 PM EDT reply actions
re: Enc's status
Granted that was a while ago. I can only hope he's improved since then.
by SmashedAtoms on Oct 30, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
lbros/hrdcor etc
Then the obvious ten yr in NYC. Historically where do you think he ranks overall not just NY Yanks? If he goes to LA what do you think he does?
Is torre a product of good teams in NY or a good manager who had his first chances at good teams in NY? I see he wasnt too bad when he coached ATL but could do without his mets records on his resume..any thoughts?
The fact that this group costs $100M
Yeah, he made a couple of shrewd trades of shitty minor-leaguers and marginal MLB players for guys like Kile, Edmonds and Rolen. But it's like he targeted shitty minor-leaguers in the draft for the sole purpose of fleecing other GMs for their stars.
Other GMs got wise, and our farm system has paid the price. And let's face it, he got lucky with Pujols and Carpenter.
You can't blame DeWitt for not "opening DeWallet." Throwing money at free agents is no guarantee of success. Go ask the Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks and Red Sox, to a lesser extent, what they think is best option for building a winner.
by 26thMan on Oct 30, 2007 3:11 PM EDT reply actions
What?
If those two starting pitchers are healthy and as good as they should be, this team wouldn't be far off at all, and we'd have some pieces to trade.
What?
Walt paid him to rehab and he turned into Cy Young. Unpredictable is a nice way to put it. Lucky as hell is another.
Well
Good stuff
Carp's best year prior was an ERA+ of 113. He pitched into his year 27 season. So, under typical career paths he had peaked and THEN needed a major, often career ending surgery.
His K:9 prior to surgery was 6.32, BB:9 was 3.5. He only had one season with a WHIp below 1.4
Pitchers don't usually improve upon almost 900 innings of history AFTER surgery.
Eventually you have to pay the piper
Whether you thought those players would be any good or not, I don't know that you could have expected 1 to almost lose his sight on a freak accident and the other 2 to lose 2 seasons due to arm surgery.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Red Sox
The Red Sox have plenty of money. Maybe those guys wanted to stay at Boston and agreed to deals that seem fair enough. They probably could have made more but it was their decision.
Wrong- the Sox paid $51 mil to talk to Dice K
by RosevilleRedbird on Oct 30, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
The Sox
The Sox may be East coast and high budget, but they certainly aren't the Yankees (despite how I hate them). They have incorporated the advising of Bill James and the young forward thinking of Theo and Co. They are what we should be...a 100+ million budget and a developmental focus to build a contender every year.
The Sox kicked the hell out of the old school Yankees on roughly half the budget. I would lump them in with the role models.
fair
Basically the Cardinals are in trouble until they start drafting better. It does not sound like our system will be good until about 4 more drafts take place. This first draft will be with a new GM in place and then I will give him 3 more to get things right. A lot of the experts see our system as a bunch of contibutors but nothing great besides Rasmus being a "can't miss" guy. So we are not yet developing difference makers in the minor league system. We have a lot of guys who can come up and replace Aaron Miles which is not a good thing because all that means is you have a cheap Aaron Miles for a couple years but then you are stuck with Aaron Miles once they start to make what he would.
A lot of their key signings
They have solid scouting, and a commitment to developing players in the minors, no doubt. But the Yankees had a focus on these things, as well. A good number of the key players on their dynasty teams were homegrown.
I would also note that Boston finished the season two games up on the Yankees.
It's not
You are correct about the 3/4 salary. I guess I was still thinking the gap was like 2005 when the Yanks were 90 million greater not even considering the luxery tax.
Had Schmidt signed with us and we had that $100 million budget DeWitt allowed for, we would have been 46 million over the Rockies and 43 million under the Sox. A year ago (2006) we were 32 million under the Sox and 47 million (over twice thier budget) over the Rox. When you consider even last year our budget comes within a league average starter's salary of doubling the Rockies I'd still say we are similar to being as Boston is to us.
But, my point was really the Sox are a higher tiered payroll team...just like us. They have a nice blend of scouting, SABR influence and well assessed market moves...just how we should be. There is no reason for us to become the Rockies Brewers or Marlins on our budget. We should be the Sox.
If we traded Rasmus for a 27 year old
Though winning a world series on the back of the pitcher would, of course, shut all detractors up.
And additionally,
I'm not contrasting StL and Boston so much as to say that they are not a team that's centrally built around player development so much as one built around a huge budget, not making stupid decisions that waste tons of money (though I still think that Matsuzaka could easily be prone to a falloff), and supplementing the big budgetary decisions with players from the farm.
Who is the core player on their roster that is homegrown? I guess Kevin Youkilis and Jonathan Papelbon came up through their system, but everyone else was a free agent or a trade acquisition.
What is the difference?
Does Wainwright not fit our future plans because we didn't draft him?
Before you bash too much on big Papi, Schilling, and the like...maybe you should check out thier salaries and especially thier price per marginal win.
Schilling makes less than most pitchers of his ilk are getting.
Ortiz only makes 12.5 per.
Varitek is pretty productive for $9 per.
Only Manny's contract seems unwieldly. And guess what? Theo didn't sign him to it. Theo inherited it.
Theo's been there since 2004. I see quite a pipeline of pitching coming in. I see some high tier prospects here and there to either trade for valuable commodities (which we all seem to agree we don't have the goods to do). I see a struggling rookie infielder being given the benefit of the doubt and allowed to develop at the major league level. But, most of all, I see a team making pretty much the most out of thier money and beating the hell out of pretty much everyone.
I am not saying we mortgaged the farm getting Edmonds and Walker. I am saying they traded for 25 year old ace type pitcher and we trade for old veteran types...or rather we did before those types of trades became obsolete.
And how about
he wasn't 27
His injury history was blisters, wasn't it?
That's hardly a red flag.
WJ
And I screamed like hell (although not on here :( ) the day the Mulder deal was announced. Beane burn't us on that one.
Here is what i would do:
Trade Anthony Reyes, Randy Flores, and Mark Worrell to Arizona for Connor Jackson. Put him in left field.
Sign Joe Kennedy to be the second lefty out of the pen/backup rotation option.
Trade Chris Duncan and Blake Hawksworth to LA Angels for Ervin Santana and Erik Aybar.
Sign Tom Glavine to a one year deal.
Lineup:
Aybar - SS
Ankiel - RF
Pujols - 1B
Rolen - 3B
Jackson - LF
Edmonds - CF
Y. Molina - C
Kennedy - 2B
Bench:
J. Molina
Spiezio
Ludwick
Ryan
Schumaker
Rotation:
Wainwright
Glavine
Santana
Looper
Pineiro
Pen:
Isrighausen
Franklin
Springer
Kinney
Johnson
Joe Kennedy
Thompson
no to aybar and santana
We'd be better off with Ryan at short than Aybar
Aybar - .237/.279/.289 and 4 for 8 SB
Ryan - .289/.347/.406 and 7 for 7 SB
in about the same amount of games
and Santana is coming off a terrible year.
7-14 5.76 era
by ChicagoCardinal on Oct 30, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Sometimes
Liked your idea about Connor Jackson though. Lots of potential there.
by ChicagoCardinal on Oct 30, 2007 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather have Aybar
Duncan to the Angels for Aybar or Santana. I doubt they would do both, but I like both players a lot. I have soured some on Santana, but I'm not really sure why his control is struggling. It may be fixable.
No to Glavine!
by DenverCardsFan on Oct 30, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
This all comes down to Rolen and Edmonds...
If we get to spring training with Rolen and Edmonds looking healthy then you might have enough offense to trade Duncan for a starting pitcher.
If Edmonds is healthy and playing well in spring then you want to trade him before he gets injured. Start the Rasmus era early.
If Rolen heals and is playing well later in the season then see if you can give his contract away at the deadline. (Same goes for Kennedy rebounding and playing well--see if you can do a salary dump.)
Unless you can pick up players over the winter that you control for a long period of time at below market value-you almost have to stand pat until next year when the payroll loosens up. I really think the best the new GM can do this year is dump contracts.
Rasmus/Anderson
Rasmus hit .270ish
Agreed
That ZiPS progression
And it's better than Encarnacion, Taguchi or Ankiel project this year with better defense.
Yes it is
maybe
I guess it would be about equally as predictive to say making the majors at 20 years old would give a kid a lot of confidence wouldn't it?
luckily, he's not 20 anyway
Still irrelevant
(And he'll be 21 opening day, sorry about the year off)
Wha?
I'm interested to hear what you are basing that off of other than blind speculation.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
again what?
I never claimed he was ready start the year in STL did I? What I did say is that he could be one of our 3 best outfielders all things considered. Additionally, that's the mean for Rasmus -- his optimistic and pessimistic projections would have a significantly higher variance than other players give the data set that's being used for projection.
Reyes
On the positive side, Dan's new (at the time) reliever-to-starter toy really nailed PuppyKicker and Loop.
He's probably half a season
Ok, come on
Your point?
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 30, 2007 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
#2 in this thread
I don't get it
If we aren't going anywhere and he truly is our future...why not give him time vs major league pitching in the vien of the Royals, DRays and Marlins and their youth (all have had 22 year olds who turned out just fine)?
If we are going somewhere, why not play the best outfield options the team has (barring an addition).
Hitting .245 is not going to help him
batting average
An OPS of .700+ isn't really sucking. Especially at his age.
Most young hitters say thier September call-ups, Spring training invites and limited time in the show is invaluable. Seeing major league pitching and talking with major league hitters does so much more for them then slugging the snot out of AA or AAA pitchers.
Also, the gap between AA and MLB isn't as wide as most think.
I have never heard evidence that seeing 500 MLB plate appearances is detrimental to anyone's development. The arguement is that it's better to play everyday than ride pine in the majors. I am advocating Rasmus start if we don't acquire someone else to play OF. He's the best of our options and it won't hurt him.
I have a serious problem with the logic that facing the type of pitching a guy will eventually be seeing everyday will somehow impede a player's growth.
Alex Gordon hit .247 this year. He hit under .200 in his first 200 plate appearances and had a first half OPS of .680. Do you think he's somehow impeded developmentally because of this?
A .739 OPS does not "suck" btw. It's not great. But, it does happen to be better than Eck, Branyon, Speiz, Yadi, Enc, Tags, SnoCones, AAAron, Edmonds, Rolen, and Kennedy posted for us last year. Maybe they all need more time at AA and AAA also?
well put together post
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't realize...
I'm not even really disagreeing with you. I think he could use some more time in the minors as well, but your argument is just baseless absolutes.
You can't say for a fact that he isn't ready anymore than someone else saying he is. It's all speculation at this point.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Hunter Pence & Colby
AAA
No fast moves...
The Dodgers...
talk is that
Good god...
There's a reason
Just throwing ideas out
Sign Glavine to a one year deal.
Reyes might not look bad in San Diego...I just can't figure out what we want from them.
this is not easy...what we have to trade is cheap and what we need to dump is expensive.
Okay, I'll respond......
Glavine goes back to Atlanta to finish his career.
Reyes indeed would look good in San Diego. He's different enough from their other pitchers that they would welcome him and be willing to take on the challenge to get him right. The Pads AA team was named AA team of the year by Baseball America...we should start there and get some prospects...maybe there's a ss prospect blocked by Greene? I'd start there.
This not easy....It looks like Detroit, Chicago Cubs, Twins, and Toronto are the only teams not looking for pitching. It's going to be hard for us to compete with everyone else to sign anyone worth having.
For my big bat I'd take a chance on Milton Bradley. Show him some love and respect and he'll put up great numbers in between DL trips. Just a one year deal.....it's probably all he'll ask for anyway. If the Cards are not in contention, flip him to a contender for a prospects ransome.
thought on defense
with duncan's love-affair with the sinker, notwithstanding looper's shift to flyball pitcher, the cardinals should reasonably expect ground balls. with the corner infield spots wearing gold gloves, we're ok. what about up the middle? miles seems to use a frying pan and while eckstein got better under the secret weapon, don't we need a defensive upgrade up the middle? neither provides much offense anyway.
one more question, who leads off if eckstein leaves?
GAH!!
And do not forget that even though the Cubs are
So true...
All are questions we won't know till the season is underway. And Ramirez and Lee enjoyed fairly healthy seasons too--will they do that again? What about Soriano--he's always an injury waiting to happen. They're all getting as long in the tooth as our guys. I'm not arguing, just pointing out they're not a lock for anything. And even if they win the division again, I'm pretty confident it will again go nowhere. Why? Cubs. They have a window that may last another year or two, and then they're gonna be in the same boat we're in with Rolen and JEd. In the end, I'm still more fearful of The Crew putting their act together for real. If they do, they may have a great several year run.
by rockin redbird on Oct 30, 2007 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Curt Schilling says he will pitch for the Cardinal
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 30, 2007 11:45 PM EDT reply actions
Duncan for pitcher and
Sparks in the Dugout?
why not...
by Birds on the Matt on Oct 31, 2007 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Bonds is still a 3-4 win player
that'd be
by Birds on the Matt on Oct 31, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
That might just work...
Duncan, Anderson, Garcia, and Reyes for McGowan and Rios.
I may be talking out of my ass on the trade, but at any rate...sign Schilling (1yr), turn Duncan into another starter, then turn Reyes and friends into a RH OF.
Waino
Schilling
Whoever you get for Duncan
Looper
Pineiro
You don't count on Mulder/Carp...whatever you get from them has to be considered house money.
Makes some sense.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 31, 2007 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
There's more wiggle room than is apparent...
i think i'm going to be sick
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