Goold's FA pitchers list in the PD

by abothebear on Oct 17, 2007 10:51 PM EDT

Here is a url to the Post Dispatch article running down some of the available pitchers.
http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bird-land/2007/10/slim-pickins-shopping-for-a-starter/

I don't see anyone who would be a realistic option for the Cards as being all that exciting. There are a few injury risk guys that sound interesting (Prior and Garcia), but they'll be too expensive to consider as options to add to our already health-risky group.

There have been several roster prediction threads, so how about limiting this one to pitchers. The rules for this one are only one pitcher via trade (and you have to include a reasonable package), free agents have to include a reasonable offer, and a maximum of one predicted non-tender, and no Ryan Franklin in the rotations. And list them in order. I'll start:

Wainwright
Willis (Reyes, Anderson, and exta guy)
Weaver (5.5 million for one year with 2 million in incentives and a $500,000 signing bonus)
Pineiro
Looper

I'd probably try and get another guy as well in case Weaver doesn't recover his magic in spring training. Maybe Wade Miller. It's not a Hall of fame rotation by any means, but it is serviceable, has good potential, it's affordable, and it's not long term. And if Carpenter and Mulder come back close to normal then our second half rotation looks mighty good with the option to trade leftovers. And if the team doesn't compete and Carp and Mulder can't come back Willis, Weaver, Looper, and even Pineiro a contracts that would be fairly easy to trade at the deadline for prospects.

Carpenter
Wainwright
Willis
Mulder/Pineiro
Weaver/Looper

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Weaver -- magical?

see this. Avoid at all costs!

Considering this year's poor free agent market, we should only be looking for 1 year contracts or maybe 1 year + a team option. There are a few who have been injured who, depending on their health, may be serviceable. They'll all be looking for 1 year or 1 year+option contracts:

Kris Benson

you mentioned Garcia

Jon Lieber

Jason Jennings

Now that we've signed Pineiro, it really doesn't make any sense to try and add any of these unless, by some miracle, we could trade Looper for something of value. All of the above will be trying to resurrect their careers and are coming off injury and any of them, if healthy, could've worked in '08 in lieu of Pineiro.

It should be pointed out that there are a lot of replacement-level pitchers out there who could have filled a spot in the rotation on a 1 year basis -- thereby blocking no one, since it's unlikely anyone (Garcia, Hawksworth, etc.) will be ready until late '08 at the earliest. Granted, they're not as great as Pineiro but they're not much worse either, would be cheaper and on a 1 year deal, and wouldn't be blocking anyone who emerges for the rotation in '09.

by chuckb on Oct 17, 2007 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

Benson? Jennings?

I don't know how those two are any better than Weaver.

Garcia is very appealing, but I don't see him going for less than 10 million for multiple years. Lieber doesn't excite me, but he doesn't une-xcite me either. He reminds me of Tomko.

Weaver is a head case, like Wells, but he has shown that he can come out of it at times, unlike Wells. He isn't ideal by any stretch, but he is someone who the Cardinals have a chance at, and for decent money. He also has a good track record with the Cardinals which, when considering the direction Wells, Ponson and Tomko went as unknown guesses, counts for something.

by abothebear on Oct 17, 2007 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

one year contracts

Any pitcher with even a hint of promise will demand and receive a multi-year contract. One year contracts are for the has-beens and the injured. With the Cards lack of depth - both very high risk to make the 08 staff look very much like th 07 staff - digging through the recycle bin.

by cdb on Oct 18, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Burnett?

I'm sure to get hazed for this, but what about Burnett? He might come cheaper, with his injury history.

Wainwright
Burnett (Duncan)
Looper
Pineiro
Clement (1yr @ $5 million + incentives)

Mulder?
Carpenter?

Just a thought. Ok, now go ahead and bring out the paddles.

by qwikimport on Oct 17, 2007 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

that isn't so crazy

I thought about that too. I think they'd trade Burnett before they'd trade McGowan. But Burnett's contract is pretty good considering the way the pitching market has gone since he was first signed by Toronto. If I were them I'd hold on to Burnett too, I'd at least try and get more than Duncan for him.

I like Clement too. Good rotation.

by abothebear on Oct 17, 2007 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Fire up the Burnett bandwagon

TOR doesn't like him, send Reyes plus one or two other youngsters north of the border and lock Burnett up for a few years.

Carp, Burnett, Wainer.....yummy.

Acquire AJ Burnett!

by TheFranchise9 on Oct 18, 2007 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Burnett...

He's probably the best pitcher that is realistically available.

Duncan would probably be a good starting point, and maybe you could negotiate with him to not opt out of his deal (he wanted to be here in the first place right?)

Willis, for the life of me I can't figure out why so many people still endorse him.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 18, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Weaver

has a good track record w/ the Cards? Why? Because he won a WS ring?

2006 -- LAA 88.2 IP 11.57 H/9 2.13 BB/9 6.29 K/9 1.83 HR/9 6.29 ERA 70 ERA+
2006 -- STL 83.3 IP 10.69 H/9 2.81 BB/9 4.86 K/9 1.73 HR/9 5.18 ERA 85 ERA+ (in a worse league)
2007 -- SEA 146.2 IP 11.46 H/9 2.15 BB/9 4.91 K/9 1.41 HR/9 6.20 ERA 69 ERA+

He was, basically, the same pitcher w/ the Cards in '06 that he was w/ the Angels that year and the M's in '07. Yes, he did have a good start or 2 in the playoffs, but in his last 318.2 IP, he has been bad! This includes his time w/ the Cards. Weaver has been awful in every respect.

Neither Benson nor Jennings have been world-beaters -- but both have been close to average throughout their careers. Jennings was awful, to be sure, last season but he was hurt. In each of the previous 6 seasons, his ERA+, while pitching for Colorado, ranged from 92-127. And he'll be looking for a 1 year contract.

Benson hasn't been quite that good. But in his 7 seasons prior to last season, his ERA+ ranged from a low of 85 to a high of 119. His average ERA+ throughout his career is 101. Decidedly average!

Contrast each w/ Pineiro -- a low of 68 to a high of 130 (ERA+) and, before '07, not above 92 since 2003. Both Benson and Jennings will be looking for 1 year contracts, as opposed to Pineiro's 2. If they're not healthy, they're not worth signing. But if they are, they could be much better signings than Pineiro if only b/c theirs will be 1 year contracts (or maybe 1 w/ an option).

If you'd really like to contrast them w/ Weaver, follow the links:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/weaveje01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pineijo01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bensokr01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jennija01.shtml

by chuckb on Oct 17, 2007 11:41 PM EDT reply actions

I see

I see what you are saying.

With a Benson or Jennings we may have been able to get a 1 year 5 Million dollar deal.

Problem:

Both were hurt and at this point we need stability. Pinero is not hurt and we need stability as things point to our staff maybe facing health problems this season. I think the Pinero was a steady signing. He is not blocking anyone in our system and the money is not gawd auful. Yes you could have found cheaper but there would be healt and production issues. I don't want to hope a guy is going to be healthy. Look how well it worked with Mulder. Everyone assumed he would be healthy this year and oh, wait.

Pinero is not going to be a 2.70 ERA guy but either are any of the other options STL has/had an opportunity to sign.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 18, 2007 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

but those stats don't tell the whole story

Weaver was bad for the first few starts but worked things out and finished on a fairly consistent upswing. His September stats weren't bad at all and I saw or heard most of his games and he pitched well. And he continued that into the post season. At this point, that is good enough for me.

by abothebear on Oct 18, 2007 12:05 AM EDT reply actions

I thought I'd be on your side abo, but

looking at the
gamelog, I can't. The guy gave up 2 HR's in half the starts that he DIDN'T get knocked out of in the 1st inning.

by silent_bob on Oct 18, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Can we please avoid Dontrelle Willis at

all costs. I'd prefer to use Anderson (if we are trading him) on a pitcher who isn't mere months away from massive arm surgery.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 18, 2007 2:44 AM EDT reply actions

ok

who would you suggest?

by abothebear on Oct 18, 2007 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

AJ BURNETT

a huge no to the d-train!

Acquire AJ Burnett!

by TheFranchise9 on Oct 18, 2007 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

by nycardfan on Oct 18, 2007 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Why again..

would the Blue Jay want to get rid of A.J. Burnett?
Their rotation for next year looks something like this:

Halladay
Burnett
McGowan
Marcum
Litsch

In the division they are in, playing in a hitter's park like they do, I think that looks pretty good for them.
Why change that? It's not like they have a hot shot young pitching prospect waiting for his shot...
And why would they want Chris Duncan? They have Reed Johnson already out there & their own yonger version of Duncan waiting in the wings (Adam Lind)...

If those of you who think Toronto doesn't like him ar referring to this:
http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/story/2007/07/05/ricciardi-burnett.html
You can find Burnett's response here:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2007-07-06-4060481017_x.htm

Doesn't sound like he's too upset. Plus, the Blue Jays hired their pitching coach two years ago because he was Burnett's guy..

As much as I like A.J. Burnett (and I like him alot), I think it would take more than most to get him here.

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Oct 18, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed - sort of

I agree that Toronto probably shouldn't deal Burnett. BUT, doesn't he have the option to opt out after this season? If they have a reason to think he will, then dealing him for a nice package of players who they could control for several more seasons might get their attention.

Now does Burnett want to opt out? And if so, does STL have a nice package of players that would get it done? Who knows, but it doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to think it could happen.

Acquire AJ Burnett!

by TheFranchise9 on Oct 18, 2007 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

forgot to mention...

I think Duncan has more value than Reyes at this point, but Reyes seems like a more logical fit in a deal with the Jays. Like its been said, they don't have a need for Duncan and we certainly do.

Acquire AJ Burnett!

by TheFranchise9 on Oct 18, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Disagree....

They do indeed have a need for a player with Duncan's resume...young, cheap, slugger under team control for 4 years.

They could stick him at 1B....Lyle Overbay was terrible and their next best option in Matt Stairs.

They could use him in LF or DH....Reed Johnson won't be blocking a player of Duncan's caliber(ever) and Adam Lind can't play both positions at the same time.

Also, there is plenty of talk in Toronto of moving Casey Jansen to the rotation. I don't see why they would be considering that if not to move one of their starters for a bat.

Toronto is a vary plausible destination for Chris Duncan should he be moved. The two teams match up perfectly.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 18, 2007 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

1B / DH for the Blue Jays.

1B = Overbay
Had a broken hand last year, accounting for the drop in production, & they have him signed through 2010.
DH = Thomas
Hit well last year & he has a guaranteed option for 2009 if he gets 1000 PA's between 07-08 (he had 624 PA last year, so he needs to play half the year to get an extra $10 M)

Lind is 2 years younger than Duncan, has a better minor league profile & has done this in 350 MLB AB's to this point:
.260 / .302 / .434; 13 HR; 42 R; 54 RBI; 21/77 BB/KO.. Not earth-shattering, but there is promise there...

The Blue Jays need to find out if he can play & I'm not sure they would want to sacrifice Burnett or McGowan for Duncan in LF, who has had injury problems both years, has a nasty platoon spilt, plays an atrocious LF & is 2 years older..

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Oct 18, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Still Doesn't add up...

For one, you mentioned Reed Johnson as the reason that the Blue Jays wouldn't want to acquire Duncan. I think we can right that off.

As far as Overbay goes...sure he had a broken hand last year but he was playing quite poorly before the injury. Now, I don't think they will non-tender him or anything but I don't think he is a guy who they view as irreplaceable.

Also, I can't see why they would be interested in moving Jansen to a starters role if they don't have intentions of trading a starter.

They need a left handed power threat and Duncan fits the bill.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 18, 2007 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

$20 M for next three years..

Means that they probably won't do anything this year to change the situation with Overbay at 1B.

They may be thinking of having Janssen compete with Litsch & Chacin for the 5th starter spot.

Seems more reasonable to me that Toronto would rather see what they have with a full seasons from Overbay & Glaus and/or a bounce-back season from Vernon Wells than do something rash & impulsive like moving their #2 / #3 starter.

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Oct 18, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Lind/Johnson

Both had very disappointing 2007's; Lind still has the capital-P for Prospect label, but he's hardly a safe bet to put up Duncan's level of production going forward. Reed Johnson, on the other hand, is 30 years old and barely outhit Adam Kennedy last year, in a corner outfield position; he's had one above-average offensive year in MLB, and that was driven by a 70-point BABIP spike. And Frank Thomas is going to be 40 next season- they are going to need to replace a big power bat at DH after he retires.

Duncan for McGowan/Burnett would be a net gain for both teams, allowing each of us to deal from strengths to fill weaknesses. Unfortunately it doesn't look as good for Toronto on paper as it actually is, because Duncan is better than the numbers he has put up so far (imagine what we could have traded him for if the season had ended on 1 august, before he got hurt and hit .167 over the next 100 PA's?)

by SleepyCA on Oct 18, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Nail on the head...

Although, I'd ask for McGowan first...Burnett is probably the most likely to be moved.

The two teams match up very well.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 18, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Prior

Goold mentions him as a low-risk/high-reward opportunity. What kind of interest will he generate? if he can be signed to a 1-yr contract in the 3-5 million range... it might be worth it.

I'd rather my sister become a prostitute than my brother become a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Oct 18, 2007 10:41 AM EDT reply actions

Personally

I'd gamble that he's worth at least what Pineiro got.

If healthy--which, of course, is the major key--he could easily be the next Carpenter, only better.

Even with his terrible 2006, he has a 3.51 career ERA, even though he was a flyball pitcher in Wrigley.

C70 at the Bat

by Cardinal70 on Oct 18, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

RE: Prior

(He probably won't but) can you just imagine Cubs fans if he did turn out to be the next Carpenter? That would be worth solid gold.

by JShell73 on Oct 18, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Mark Prior

Mark Prior has terrible mechanics and in all likelihood his career is over.

Plus, why pick him up when we've got a clone of him mechanics-wise in Anthony Reyes and Reyes is starting to exhibit injury problems?

It doesn't make any sense.

If you want to see the problems with Prior's mechanics, see...

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/MarkPriorPitchingMec hanics.html

by thepainguy on Oct 18, 2007 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

You seem so certain Prior's career is over

It very well might be, but he has had shoulder surgery, he hasn't pitched this season, and he won't pitch until next spring. I think with that long of a layoff he has NO mechanics. He will have to relearn how to pitch, no? Muscle memory is erased after that long of a lay off isn't it?
I'm not advocating we sign him or don't sign him; I just don't think I'd be so certain his career is over just yet.

by jillsinmo on Oct 18, 2007 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I appreciate

your optimism. At the same time, I remain skeptical of Prior being successful at the MLB level. Look at the hard time Mulder is having relearning his mechanics. (It seems Mulder is trying to relearn mechanics that were altered due to injury, but I digress...) If Prior is successful, great. I'll be wrong, too. But I'm willing to bet he's going to struggle mightily.

by spants on Oct 18, 2007 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not being optimistic; I'm just not willing to

say for sure that his career is over. He may BE done, I think I said that. But I wouldn't say that for 100% sure until he actually steps back on the mound. I'm not advocating the Cards pay him to find out either; but there have been a few to make it back. He still has a chance to be one of them IMO.

by jillsinmo on Oct 18, 2007 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Mark Prior & Muscle Memory

Mark Prior may be able to revive his career if he were to completely rebuild his mechanics. However, the odds of his doing that are extremely unlikely. In all likelihood, he will go back to the thing that worked for a while (and that destroyed his arm).

Also, muscle memory persists for a VERY long time. That's why the old saying that you never forget how to learn how to ride a bike is true.

It is possible to change your mechanics. I did it due to shoulder problems. But you have to want to change your mechanics.

I'm not convinced that Mark Prior wants to change his mechanics.

by thepainguy on Oct 18, 2007 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Scientific Evidence

Chris you've gotta come up with some quantifiable data that shows your theories are correct. You cannot say for certain Prior's career is over, or even that his problems are a direct result of mechanics. Show me some scientific evidence and I'll be swayed.

by Jhusk on Oct 19, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Why build for 2009?

While we do have some prospects to be ready by 2009 do we really have a realistic top flight starter? I can't think of one, so what is the thinking of building towards 2009 on the pitching front. I get the other positions but pitching..

by ball four on Oct 18, 2007 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

The FA market...

it could very well be outstanding.

Not all of these guys will make it to FA status, but look at some of the names...

Garland
Lackey
Peavy
Penny
Sabathia
Santana
Smoltz
Sheets

Everyone on that list, with the exception of Garland, is a legit no 1. I advocate saving our money and making a play for 1 or 2 of these guys.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 18, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I want Santana, Peavy, Penny, Sheets, Smoltz;

I want an EFF-U pitcher. Just one! I want Zambarano, I want Bedard, I want a DIFFERENCE MAKER. I want a top of the rotation guy who is a pitch to contact pitcher like Bob Gibson--go ahead, I dare you to hit it, see if you can, except you can't......
Alas, that's what everyone else wants too.
Get in line with wheelbarrels full of cash....

by jillsinmo on Oct 18, 2007 5:45 PM EDT reply actions

Agree!!

Unless you are the Yankees and can just offer a ridiculos amount of $$$$ it is not as simple as throwing $2 million more than the next guy to get a FA.

That is the hard thing. These are people and yes they like $$$ but there are other factors that we can only guess on. Who knows why a person may turn down certain teams.

It seems as if STL attracts a certain type of player but not necessarilly the top tier guys. I don't know what it is.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 18, 2007 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions