ALCS Game 4 Open Thread
by lboros on Oct 16, 2007 8:03 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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congratulations to the rockies on succeeding the cardinals as nl champs.
it's not the pineiro contract itself that's disheartening; it's not pineiro himself. it's the organizational disease, of which this signing is yet another symptom --- a deadly lack of imagination. there's a hole in the rotation? alrighty, then --- locate the nearest free-agent mediocrity and fork over some millions; problem solved. but of course, the problem's not solved --- no more than the right-field problem was solved when the cardinals signed juan encarnacion, or the setup-man vacancy was filled when they signed braden looper, or the chasm at 2b was eliminated when they signed adam kennedy. taken in isolation, each of these acquisitions might have been defensible at the time; taken as a group, they've made the team old and slow and leaky. there's only so much mediocrity you can lock in before the roster calcifies under the sheer mass of it. the cardinals are well beyond that point.
there are other ways to go. the VEB community has set forth any number of ideas for how to freshen up the composition of the team, adding flexibility and growth potential. some of the proposals we generate are less realistic than others, but at least there's always creativity in the thought process --- a cataloguing of assets and needs, and an attempt to deploy the former efficiently in service of the latter. that is what's been lacking during the cardinals' last 2 off-seasons --- and we already see the same lack this off-season in the hasty re-signings of so-so players from the terrible 2007 roster. when we bemoan the re-signing of joel pineiro, we're really bemoaning the organization's embrace of stand-stillism. the cards are just treading water, casting about for lifelines --- "think this guy might be any good?" "maybe; what other choice do we have?" --- instead of charting a course.
pineiro represents another lifeline on a roster that's already got too many of them. without question he's an upgrade over kip wells; he increases the odds that the team will win 84 games next year. but he decreases the odds that they'll win 94. that's what mediocrities do --- they drag you under just as much as they buoy you up. of late in st louis, the drag has outweighed the loft; the cardinals came within a few runs of having the worst run differential in the league last year. they don't merely need to be tweaked around the margins. they need to be worked over but good. risk will be involved. we haven't seen any sign so far that the club a) recognizes this, or b) has a plan for what to do about it. it's still early in the off-season; things might improve, particularly once the new gm is in place. but every new roster spot the cards commit to a mediocre player hardens the status quo --- which, last october aside, ain't too good.
i believe pineiro reminds the cardinals of a couple reclamations they had success with in the not-distant past. one is woody williams, a post-deadline acquisition in 2001 who, like pineiro, made 11 starts after joining the cards. both pitchers stabilized wobbly rotations and helped lead moribund clubs back into contention; in williams' case, the cards closed the deal and got back to the playoffs. that off-season, st louis re-signed williams to a rich 3-year deal, one that proved to be worth every cent. but williams had a lot more than 11 good starts to recommend him; he'd posted a 3.75 era just one year before the cardinals got him, and in an 8-year career he'd only once posted a worse-than-average era (park adjusted) --- and he was within 0.03 points of average that year. he was an extremely consistent pitcher with a strong recent record; pineiro doesn't have that type of resume.
the other recent salvage job who pineiro vaguely resembles is chris carpenter. both pitchers were successful in their early 20s (pineiro far more so than carp), then suffered elbow injuries at age 24 that drastically worsened their performance. carpenter managed one good season after the injury (2001, his best year up to that time), but only after shoulder surgery and 18 months of rehab did he come back as an effective pitcher. fortunately, he was still only 29 years old --- the same age pineiro will be next season. . . . . . but the analogy only goes so far. when carpenter broke out for the cards in 2004, he was only 2 years removed from his most recent good year; pineiro is 4 years removed from his last effective season. and, probably more important, carpenter had signed for $500,000; pineiro signed for $13m more than that. so the cases aren't really similar at all; forget i brought it up. pineiro ain't very likely to be the next chris carpenter.
he might be the next jason marquis, though; that's who baseball-reference.com lists as pineiro's #1 most comparable pitcher. when you've finished retching, realize that marquis was a league-average pitcher in 3 of the last 4 years. . . . but also realize that he pitched himself clear off the playoff roster twice in that span, and out of the playoff rotation a 3d time; with his horrible performance down the stretch in 2007, he may have pitched himself out of the cubs' plans for 2008. typical mediocrity --- he buoys you up, he drags you down. other top-10 pineiro comps include kyle lohse (4.62 era in 2007), steve trachsel (4.90), and eric milton (5.17). the only good pitcher on the list is brad penny.
there's a reasonable chance this guy will be about as effective as marquis or lohse --- a .500ish pitcher with an era between 4.50 and 5.00. but the cards already have two roster spots committed to pitchers of that caliber (looper and franklin), and roster spots are finite resources. for all the discussion about dewitt's tight-fisted spending, the bigger problem with this team has been profligacy --- the extravagant waste of roster spots on players with limited abilities and little development potential. (say it with me, everybody: opportunity cost.) as for pineiro's salary, it might be that a rump-of-rotation pitcher is worth $6.5m a year these days; perhaps that's a reality of the market. but it's a dead-end market, frequented by teams that are going nowhere. kris benson in baltimore, eric milton in cincinnati, tony armas in pittsburgh, steve trachsel and ramon ortiz in whatever towns they happen to find themselves in a given year --- that's the circuit pineiro travels on. it's not a loop any of us wants to see the cardinals get trapped in.
it's this prospect, not joel pineiro per se, that has me and so many other VEBbers feeling blue in the wake of this signing.
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Blue indeed.
As far as Pineiro goes himself, though, I guess it could be worse. At least he's fairly aggressive on the mound. Maybe he really did figure something out here under Duncan. Maybe he'll be okay. I'm hoping for the best here, but I'm having a hard time seeing how even the best case scenario really puts us in line for anything that exciting. (Heaves a sigh) Times like this make me wish I knew how to play the harmonica.
Excellent stuff
by qwikimport on Oct 16, 2007 8:37 AM EDT reply actions
Solution/Direction
However, the way they are going about it is all wrong.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Fantastic summary line
That just sums up this signing so well!
by cariocacardinal on Oct 16, 2007 8:37 AM EDT reply actions
94 games ?????
We needed someone to ease the strain on the bulpen, and that is what we got. Maybe overpaid, but as many others have said - stability.
Why?
BTW, everyone continues to claim Pineiro an innings eater when he reached the 200 inning mark exactly once in his career.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
75 win team
In my opinion - not a numbers-based assessment here - the cards offense can be better next year. They won't break any offensive records, but they could be slightly better if the veterans play a little more like the should have and health issues are less of a concern. Also depends on you the Ankiel/Duncan/Ludwick/Skip platoon works.
IF (in caps) the offense is a little better, the Cards have a chance to compete in the NL Central. However, if the bullpen was dismantled and the offense does not improve, we are considerably worse in 08 than we were in 07.
All I am trying to say is that the Cards so far have resigned players that actually played pretty well for us in 07 and I don't see how that is so terrible. The dead weight were those veterans with large contracts that were either injured/underperforming/old - and we can't realistically move them unless it is a salary dump.
cdb, your reaction is telling
the people who like the move seem to like it because it might help in the short term. the people who are unenthusiastic are generally taking a longer-range view.
Innings eater
You said it
In some small way, I am starting they don't hire a DePodesta/Antonetti type. The new guy is being painted into a corner before he even takes the job. I'm sure one of those guys would come in and start to try to make organizational changes, then be held accountable for the crap he didn't create before his changes have a chance to bloom (deja vu DePodesta?).
Liam's analysis comparing Suppan & Pineiro
Liam posted this link late yesterday in the sidebar diary. I wanted to post it again here in case people haven't had a chance to look at his analysis or haven't had the heart to wade through all the comments from yesterday.
IMHO, it was one of the most informative posts I read yesterday. I think no matter where you stand on this debate, people would appreciate the statistical table Liam provides and the thoughtful comparisons and distinctions he draws between Suppan and Pineiro.
by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:09 AM EDT reply actions
thank you
Suppan
But that was before the spike
by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Free Agent Market
I like Liam's analysis as it is about what I have been feeling. We are paying Pineiro to anchor this rotation, give us room to experiment with high risk high yield top ends while also leaving open the possibility of signing a known top quality starter. I am not sure how the rest of the off season is going to go but I am excited that 3 signings have already been made, how long did it take for us to do anything last off season?
Right. I take the speed of the recent signings
by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
But houston,
What's realistic
According to Baseball Prospectus' MORP calculation, Pineiro must be worth approx. 2.63 WARP1 in '08, and 3.28 WARP1 in '09 in order to justify his salary. Last year, he managed to "produce" a WARP1 of 2.5, counting his time w/ Boston and St. Louis. He hasn't been above 2.5 since 2004 and hasn't been at 3.3 or higher since 2003. Again, MORP is based on the current market values out there. PECOTA, BTW, has him worth less than $7 M (again, current market value) for the next 2 years.
Salaries haven't escalated THAT much!
WSAB/WARP-X
This isn't a slam-dunk signing, but it's not a horrible one. I share your desire to see the Cardinals greatly improve, but until the world series is over, all we can do is sign our own. Pineiro's showing signs of being an effective pitcher again—his velocity is up from the past few years recovering from elbow injury and he's apparently bought into the Duncan program.
No need to paint yourself into a corner here—you know I'll be tempted to tease you if Pineiro consistently pitches the Cardinals into a chance to win baseball games like Suppan did during his tenure in the Lou and even Marquis did in 2004 and most of 2005. That's all he has to do—he's not the ace we're looking for, but he's as good a bet to manage opposing offenses for 190 innings as any other pitcher we'd have to spend more for in free agency.
Dal Maxvill Era Part 2
I should state
mr maxvill
Actually this is kinda similar...
Please, everybody, don't
LB, just take a deep breath, get into the spirit of Rockie fever and enjoy the postseason.
Is it possible this pattern will continue for the Cardinals? Yes. But is it too early to be so sure of that? Also yes.
The most important thing in baseball right now is that the RED SOX MUST BE ELIMINATED. All else pales in comparison. Turn your karma toward Cleveland and focus your energy.
Reminds me of Dr. Who
EXTERMINATE!!!!!
Favorite show of all time. Nice one
by The Butcher on Oct 17, 2007 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Right ON
My question is (for the forum) how do you AVOID mediocrity and staleness on a club with limited resources. (Insert a cry out to raise the payroll here) Increasing payroll can get you 1, maybe two more top of the line impact players, but some degree of creativity HAS to be involved,right?... not to mention luck (just ask the Yankees).
Thoughts?
by ChadEliot on Oct 16, 2007 9:20 AM EDT reply actions
limited resources
Look at the payrolls of Colorado, Arizona, and Cleveland. All well below the Cards. How did they do it? Just look at the players on their rosters: young players, the vast majority of whom are home grown. These teams are the Anti-Cardinals. It's just an excuse to say we are a mid-market team that can't spend like the Yankees or Red Sox. Only the Yankess and the Red Sox can spend like themselves. They are in their own league, the dollar division. The other 28 teams, the reality division, operate under roughly the same constraints (with a few teams below the median, KC, and few teams above like the Cubs).
Indians fans suffered through 6 years
The Rockies finished in 4th place or worse each of the previous 9 seasons. They finished above .500 once.
The DBacks are a much different animal in that they were able to reach success very early. However, by all accounts, their team played extremely over their heads this past season and I would not be stunned to see them regress to a 3rd place finish in that division.
Small payrolls/young players don't happen in a vaccum. You have to lose quite a bit for a long time to have that happen.
Are you willing to finish below .500 and no higher than 3rd or 4th in the division for half a decade just to get younger and more talented?
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Hardcore...
That could very well be our fate anyway. This roster is going to need a major overhaul, and it isn't going to be done through Free Agency. I don't understand why they would postpone the inevitable.
BTW...this team could be back and competing by '09 were they willing to just play out '08 and quit throwing money around.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
If the team could be back and competing by 09
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
Everyone has been asking those you complain for a better plan...well, check out my sidebar diary. I think people might like the roster I've assembled.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
hardcore, the answer to your question is
while the triple A team doesn't have any pitchers ready to step into the rotation on april 1, they very well might by july 1 --- hawksworth might get it together, garcia (if healthy) or boggs might be ready, maybe pj walters will continue to fool 'em. at least 1 of those 4 guys very well might be a better pitcher than joel pineiro by mid-2008 ---- i'd give it a 1 in 3 shot. by the spring of 2009, it's probably no worse than 50-50 that one of those guys will be a better big-league pitcher than pineiro --- and making the league minimum, rather than the $7.5m pineiro will be owed.
but pineiro will probably be taking a roster spot away from one of them. that's why it's a frustrating contract --- and that's why i say the signing makes it less likely that the team will improve to 94 wins down the road. players like him lock in mediocrity; they impede growth.
"players like him..."
This I would love to agree with, because it is the stance I have taken all season, and as a matter of principle it is correct. However, even with this signing, we are still 2 pitchers short of a rotation. If Garcia or Boggs look like real options by July, there is a very good chance that someone will be hurt or underperforming, allowing us to give one of them a shot.
If not, then another year in the minors for seasoning won't hurt the development of pitchers who haven't even thrown a full season at AA ball yet, will it?
I would be willing to roll the dice on PJ
You are correct that if we start Mulder I expect he is back on the DL before the ASB
None of those guys
But say they light the world on fire and get a callup, they've still got to fill some rotation slots. Unless all 3 come up, the rotation as it stands:
Wainwright
Pineiro
Looper
Mulder
Thompson
Reyes
I broke them up like that because the first 2 are slightly less likely to get injured, the second 2 are almost assured a DL stint and the last 2 are having their MLB starter clock running out. If Boggs (who will more than likely be a career reliever), Walters and Hawksworth dazzle the Memphis crowd, then they can replace 1 or more of Looper, Mulder, Thompson or Reyes when they either a) get injured or b) suck.
There is a whole lot of weakness in this rotation and finding a slot in the rotation won't be too hard if you are any good.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 17, 2007 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions
exciting!
by yer dog first on Oct 17, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
That's because
Marquis is his #1 comp?
It's not Pineiro per se
by vinniefromjersey on Oct 16, 2007 9:26 AM EDT reply actions
I agree
God bless this franchise, but they are driving me crazy.
by Jtip20 on Oct 16, 2007 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
....rebuilding?
Im ready to see the bats in the minors get a crack, we could still see Mather, Rasmus, Hoff and possibly Perez, Motte, Walters or Worrell get playing time in 08
Spring training is STILL being planned and theres 4 months of offseason ahead, maybe the doom and gloom and forboding is somewhat premature?
by cardschinmusic on Oct 17, 2007 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Chances
Say we have a 5% chance of winning 94 games next year and a 45% chance of winning 84. Do you take a player (Pineiro) that will increase your chances of the more realistic goal or do you wait for the slim chance you'll find someone out there that helps you increase your chance at 94 wins? Remember, we are in the NL Central, where 84 wins puts you in contention (and a midseason trade may put you over the top).
The only way we get back up to a 94 win team is luck, or development of the farm system. Unless we are doing something in the detriment of developing players, I can't get worked up about signing a player that actually gives us a better chance to win (even if they aren't helping us get back to 2004/05).
The fact that
#1 -- it limits our ability to sign/trade for GOOD players by taking up $7.5 M worth of salary space
#2 -- in 2009, we should expect to be able to slot in some of the the starters in the farm system to the back end of the rotation. Having Pineiro on the staff inhibits our ability to see what Hawksworth, Garcia, Parisi, Boggs, Walters, Herron, or others might be able to provide. It doesn't really hurt us for '08, but it certainly does for '09.
Developing players...
Second, none of them may be ready for the majors in 2009. That is a big assumption
Third, you are assuming another year in the minors (or in the major league bullpen) would be a DETRIMENT to their development.
I'm probably in the minority, but I'm a firm believer in the J. Santana, F. Liriano, A. Wainright, P. Martinez school of how you develop a pitcher: Let them gain confidence in the bullpen for a year of development and then start them the next.
I never assumed
None may be ready in '09 but we'll never know if we don't plug them in and find out. It seems that Mozeliak's strategy is to go w/ "proven" vets over "unproven" youngsters. Remember, "proven" doesn't mean good! By 2009, it'll be time to find out what some of them can do.
bullpen...
I think you need a mix of proven vets and unproven youngsters. I also am not as confident as you are that our unproven youngsters will be ready in 2009 for full time roles. As the 2007 season showed us, there may be plenty of opportunities for youngsters even if we have a whole cadre of proven vets in front of them (which I'm not advocating).
2009
Mulder 11M or 1.5M Buyout
Wainwright 1M or long term deal already
Pineiro 7.5M
open
Perez .6M
Johnson .75M
Franklin 2.5M
Thompson .75M
Garcia .6M
Kinney .75M
Boggs/Hawks/Walters/etc. .6M
Molina 2-3M or so probably
Pujols 16M
Kennedy 4M
Rolen 12M
Martinez/Ryan/Hoff/Barden/etc. .75M
Duncan 1M
Rasmus .6M
Ankiel 3M or whatever
Anderson .6M
Martinez/Ryan/Hoff/Barden/etc. .75M
Spiezio 2.5M
Ludwick/Skip/JRod/etc. .75M
Ludwick/Skip/JRod/etc. .75M
I don't see that deal handicapping us in 2009 if we cut Mulder then we have 74.9M committed if we keep him then it is 84.4. Assuming a 115M payroll then that leaves 40.1 and 30.6M to fill any voids. This is with only 1 hole not filled with a place holder league minimum. We are fine in 2009 because of those prospects, as long as they produce near what we want then they will save us from signing the Taguchis, Miles, Encarnacions of the world which gives us more room to sign the Pineiros. As long as we don't bring back Miles and Taguchi I really just can't view this as bad, if we bring them back as well then I might get angry.
And not having Pineiro
It's about using your money wisely and $7.5 M in '09 on Joel Pineiro just isn't!
You think that in 2009
And we won't need a backup C in 2009. Anderson should be ready by then.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
One more time for everyone
And, if Anderson's here in '09, hopefully we'll need a backup C b/c we've traded Molina and given the job to Anderson. If he's good, no need to play him 40 times!
Talk is cheap
by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Brad Thompson
Brad Thompson
Pineiro gives the team a chance to win in the games he starts, and that's what matters most.
by qwikimport on Oct 16, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
is not comparable to Joel Pineiro, in my opinion. I'm not looking up stats or anything,"
Then you are missing the boat.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I should have looked it up
by qwikimport on Oct 16, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Fine
by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Additionally
you have to think
Or...
Luxury Tax
Plus the exclusive DirectTV deal or whichever satellite company that was, and the network on satellite radio.
so......
What. The. Fuck.
DeWitt's already promised at least $110,000,000 for 2008.
People are bitching that Piniero, a best-case #3 pitcher, was kept under control for $5.5/$7.5 over the next two years.
The stated goal going into the offseason is to acquire a front-line starter.
Where's the evidence the front office isn't willing to pony up payroll for players?
MRCARD and I were arguing that there are streams of revenue coming done from MLB central in equally shares to all franchises and that makes small-to-mid market teams players for the bulk of talent available. This will be enough to sustain recent inflationary trends for the Marquis's of the world.
(Excuse my language, parents. Children are not to use words like that in speech or print.)
$102,000,000
The "stated goal" of the last two offseasons has been to get a frontline starter. I'll believe it when I see it.
by Stanfan6 on Oct 16, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Players
We are not a small market team, we don't have to use replacement level players instead of the Joel Pineiro's of the world (average innings eating pitcher). Our payroll doesn't have to be 60-80 million dollars. We are not a big market team, we can't spend 130 million dollars on an all-star (but not MVP caliber) player. So what does that leave us with? Signing players that will give us a couple of more wins each and developing players in the mean time that we can retain for below market price (ie players before free agency).
Tread water and develop until your next cycle of good/great players hits. You may get lucky in the mean time (2006) or you may get extremely unlucky (2007), but at least we aren't the Royals. We don't have to be a last place team in order to become a 1st place team again. It's OK to win a few games while we wait on our development process to take hold.
True...
Backup Catcher
84 wins...
I'm not sure every other team in the division is content to hum around in a perpetual state of mediocrity like the Cardinals.
For the life of me, I can't see why anyone would put effort into trying to build an 84 win team.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Mediocrity = Cardinals?
Building a team: So in essence, you are saying that if you can't build a 100 win team, then you don't understand why a team would try to build the best team possible?
Cardinals motto 2008 -If you can't be the best, then give up!
P.S. I agree with your "they can't do that and win the division comment forever". I just don't think it will be next year.
Should have said...
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
...paging Mr. G!!
by cardschinmusic on Oct 17, 2007 5:52 AM EDT up reply actions
The Issue
Here is my point. I think many on this board are disappointed because this team needs an impact pitcher. Someone who will cost more than $10MM per year or many prospects or both. This team also needs a slugger, and those guys don't come cheap. Most of us believe that this signing takes away a big chunk of the dollars needed for those players for a guy who is not likely much of an upgrade from guys like Thompson, Wellemeyer, Kiesler...and other cheap pitchers. In other words, why spend $12MM on two mediocre pitchers when you could spend $12MM on a difference maker and use one of the in-house guys. Which route will give you the best return?
All of that being said, I don't hate this move. I think Piniero has more upside than most people on this board are giving him credit for. (In spite of some of the statistics that would say otherwise.) If he is a durable inning eater who gives you a little better than .500 record, he will be worth the money. However, the most important piece to this puzzle is who are the remaining 3 pieces?
Shortstop: We could live with Brendan Ryan if the other 2 players are very good. I just want the main priority for shortstop to be stellar defense. This means no Eckstein. (Wilson, Vizquel, Izturis)
Impact Bat: I don't understand the Aaron Rowand thing. He is a good, hard nosed player. However, he is coming off a career year in an extreme hitters' park and wants $14MM per year for 6 years. Run...Forest...Run!
Remaining Starter: This needs to be an impact guy...however, there aren't many of those available. Trade route: Santana, Garland, Willis, Burnett or free agent route: (Schilling, Pettite, Garcia, ????) The trade route seems more likely.
I want to see a more complete project before I grade the offseason, but it is off to a start. (good or bad)
Impact Bat, Plus starting pitcher
It's either win 65-75 games next year and spend 85 million or win 75-85 games and spend 110 million. It's not my money, and I'd rather see us win 10-20 more games (and possibly a lucky run like 2006). We are not getting back to 2004-2005 until the farm system starts producing (I have hope), there is an influx of good free agents or teams needing to dump players for payroll (not likely).
criticise = criticize
LB
The Marlins are rumored to be open to offers for Cabrera or Willis. I am suggesting Miggy. So, we offer Reyes, Thompson, and just about anyone else. I would take a few names off the table. Rasmus, Hoffpauir and Perez would be untouchable but we have other people to offer. Anderson, Hawksworth, Marti come to mind among others.
So:
Duncan and two prospects for Burnett and 4m
Reyes, Thompson, and two others for Miggy (he makes 10mill next year.) Ryan plays short stop.
That's 18mil only three over your budget of 15mil.
It will be hard to get Miggy maybe Molina would need to be moved. I would do that, but now we would need to sign a free agent catcher and the budget goes up another 5m for a guy like Mike Barret.
Burnett
Wainman
Pineiro
Loop
Welle/Mulder Carp returns at deadline
Miggy, Edmonds, Ankeil
Schu, Ludwick
Rolen, Ryan, Kennedy, Pujols
Speezer, Miles
Barret/Molina, and back up.
Pen we all know
For Miggy...
Compare
Cabrera had 1428AB 409H 28HR .286AVG .431SLG 51AB/HR
Rasmus is at 1184AB 337H 52HR .285AVG .510SLG 23AB/HR
Rasmus is also a plus CF while Cabrera is a weak all around fielder.
While minor league stats may be misleading since Cabrera never hit more then 10 HR in the minors and now regularly hits over 30 but Rasmus hit 29HR this season off pretty good pitching so I really don't see him dropping too far off that as he ages. Their AA seasons were both at 20 yrs old for Cabrera that was his 10 HR season and he had a better average stats over only half the season while. I am not sure I would want a slow bad fielding 3rd basemen over a guy with 20/20 potential that can play plus CF.
And Miggy is getting Big-ie
Still, it would be nice to see him in Cardinals red w/ an arm aroud El Hombre.
i think i would...
Realism
Second of all:
"Rasmus, Hoffpauir and Perez would be untouchable, Reyes, Thompson, and two others for Miggy (he makes 10mill next year.)"
The Marlins would be on the floor laughing with that offer. Thompson is worthless trade bait and Reyes has lost a lot of luster. Cabrera would START with Rasmus and probably take another prospect. I'm still not sure some other team wouldn't beat it. (For instance, some people like Adam Jones more in Seattle. Could Seattle offer Adam Jones + prospect for Cabrera and beat us in a Rasmus deal? Probably so).
Rasmus...
Barrett
He is bad defensively, and is not a smart ball player.
Lou Pinella was smart to figure that out very soon.
Fine
I would be much more comfortable
It's clear there's no real, long-term vision in the front office. Maybe there will be very soon but I fear that the Mozeliak era has already begun and that we're simply looking at Jocketty-redux.
People who
by cardsgirl95 on Oct 16, 2007 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Average fans
I think
by cardsgirl95 on Oct 16, 2007 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
and if it does, in the short-term
Craptastic this year and....
If we do nothing to fix this problem, and we aren't, that's when attendance will start to fall.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
those tickets were sold
As the season progressed, more empty seats and more Dan/Al/John/Mike begging people to come out cause they 'still have good seats availible for the homestand'.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Regardless...
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Attendance
Since 1996 Cards averaged 3.16 mil a year, lowest was 96-97 around 2.6 mil. In 96 They won the division, 4th the next year, but 1998 was the Mcqwire year and they've been above 3 mil ever since, all but once (2.9 mil during 2003, big race that ended 3rd).
94-95 The strike year and aftermath 1.8 mil.
Next era - 87 Pennant to Strike:
They averaged 2,761,612 from 87-94. 3 mil the pennant year, then they never dipped below 2.4 mil despite finishing 3rd 3 times, a 5th and a 6th.
Basically in the modern era they've only dipped below 2.5 million in attendance twice, the strike and the year after.
ding ding ding
the Cardinals are in desperate need of some fresh blood. they need a guy in charge who can bring in quality players with the money they spend. not just marginaly talented players who are brought in to fill the holes that are there because the Cards can't, or won't keep their promises to the fans.
I think it is a very good signing
I read some where, and I can't find it now, that Pineiro is Duncan easiest reclamation project because Pineiro'd bad habits were so esay to see. I wish I can find that to reference here.
Now The Post article has said that the Cards are still looking for a top of the line starter. I suspect that this will be through trade. We will have to wait and see. Garland, Burrnet, and Willis are names that have been thrown around.
If the Cards are talking to the Marlins I would hope that they would talk about Cabrera.
http://www.miamiherald.com/591/story/271186.html
How about Reyes, Molina, and just about anyone else for Miggy. Bat him 4th and put him in LF. Sign him long term and he takes over at third when Rolen's contract expires.
One thing I have noticed here at VEB is the negativity. It is getting depressing to come here and read this stuff. I don't think it is realism it is just pessimism.
This team will compete for the division title next year!
I'll still take it
Pessimism
Oh, please don't leave the site for a while
by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I, also don't see the the sky falling yet
Cabrera's offense is nice
I'd like to see him in a chart like we had yesterday. How many runs does his offense add and how many runs does his defense give up?
Cabrera
well
BP's FRAR (some people aren't a fan) has him actually at 16 runs and his vorp at 71.4 giving him 87.4 runs above replacement, or just over 8 3/4s Wins in the standings. In 2006 Rolen posted a 36.6 Vorp and a 24 FRAR for 60.6 runs or 6 2/3 wins.
Cabrera was the worst NL
(Note: BP defensive stats set their replacement level bar too low. That's what makes a lot of players look like better defenders than they actually are.)
I've heard you criticize BP's
no that's one of the problems
(I remember reading in one of the chat's that Clay was working on a PBP metric but I can't find it. All the modern defensive stats are PBP - UZR, PMR, RZR, etc.)
haha
First off, the replacement level issue is only an issue if you start moving between statistics. That is to say that you can't compare FRAR to UZR because the run totals have different offsets. The reason I don't like the replacement level that they use for FRAR or WARP is that it's soooooooo low. So when someone has a 2.5 WARP that's based mostly on their fielding, intuitively I think that a 2.5 win player isn't that bad. But it is if you adjust the replacement level. If you think that a replacement level fielder is closer to an average fielder (which I do) then that 2.5 WARP shrinks rapidly. (Same can be said for FRAR.) Comparing two players would work but the 10 runs ~= 1 win is misleading because the bar is low.
Second, while most of what BP does is proprietary and black box, the fielding stats use things like pitcher handedness to estimate the number of balls in each fielder's zone. PBP metrics actually by zone data from BIS or STATS where a stringer codes each BIP and it's zone (that's my understanding at least). David Gassko discusses it in both the links below (and Tango regularly bashes on the BP fielding stats).
I have a lot more faith in UZR and RZR than I do in the BP stats. I personally don't think that the BP fielding stats are reliable on the extremes -- but I don't have any particular evidence to back that up. There's never a coherent or clear explanation of what Clay does with all the translations.
The Book Blog thread on WARP and BP fielding
THT article about defensive metrics
Replacement level
Instead it would make sense to take an average of the MLEs of each team's best minor leaguer at each position, so that replacement level reflects what it's supposed to reflect—it's the production level from a player that a team on average could add to fill a position at no cost, not the crappiest player tolerable to one of the worst teams.
(On your original topic, David Pinto's Probabalistic Model of Range is a transparent (and transparently good) play-by-play defensive statistic. I've harped on it before, but I'd love to see him convert that data into some sort of high-res BIP pitching statistic.
He shot a video explaining how it works here, for those interested in such things.)
I wish Pinto reported the fielders in terms of
That being said, the defensive graphs he produces are awesome.
actually the conversion appears
Replacement level...
I don't have the book with me, anybody want to correct/expand on it or wait til i get home, but BP doesn't go by the worst pos. player in the league. They define it as ""freely available talent." And they specifically say in the book that it's talent a team can randomly grab from AAA.
I'm pretty sure it's explained here though. I tend to zone out when there's that deep of a math discussion going.
Sounds like I'm wrong
Sounds like they use some sort of weighted average of the teams' bench players for each position.
i....think....
Average OPS for said position minus 70 = replacement level? Am I reading that right?
holy shit
Have at it.
Take a look at
The thing that
A .225 EqA and -20 FRAA (let's just pretend it's a good fielding metric) doesn't sniff the majors. Someone may have performed like that at one time or another (I don't know who) but if that represents someone's talent level then they never get a cup of coffee.
Let's say that Brendan Ryan is a .660 OPS, then at least he's probably a league average fielder. Guys have to have some discernable skills to ever get near a ML roster. Davenport's replacement level assumes that they have NONE at all.
The main issues is looking at defense and offense separately when calculating the baseline, which is just another way that BP gets hurt by their branding and allegiance some of their bad stats.
so if that's true
it's going to give you a better
Oh boy...
Problem is...now you have 3/5ths of your rotation that are "economical moves" who only at the VERY VERY VERY top of their projection even sniff league average. In other words...3/5ths of your rotation have to pitch their very best just to be tolerable.
"Pineiro is a good pitcher "
Hasn't been for over three years now.
"I read some where, and I can't find it now, that Pineiro is Duncan easiest reclamation project because Pineiro'd bad habits were so esay to see. I wish I can find that to reference here."
Enough with the Duncan will fix 'em axiom. It's very tiresome. If Dave Duncan can turn every shit bum into a respectable starter then there is no need to throw 13M at said shit bum... Is that that hard to follow?
"Now The Post article has said that the Cards are still looking for a top of the line starter. I suspect that this will be through trade. We will have to wait and see. Garland, Burrnet, and Willis are names that have been thrown around."
We'll see. If they can get AJ Burnett for Duncan than maybe all is not lost...although they should be asking for Dustin McGowan. Don't expect this team to employ a forward thing strategy like that though. The other two names do nothing for me.
"How about Reyes, Molina, and just about anyone else for Miggy. Bat him 4th and put him in LF. Sign him long term and he takes over at third when Rolen's contract expires."
Great hitter...eating himself into a DH role. He'd make Bonds look "rangy" in the OF, and is already the worst 3B in all of baseball. It's hard to crack on such an outstanding hitter but I wouldn't be tying up a bunch of resources in a guy who's only realistic position is 1B...we've got one of those.
"This team will compete for the division title next year!"
If the division winner is somewhere around .500 again...then, yes, this team may stay within shouting distance. If a real team emerges we are toast.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
you know Bobby
1) I want 15 mil given to charity every year. 2) I can't travel with the team. 3) I show up one hour before the game and I don't have to warm up.
You would say. "15mil is too much. What is he some kinda shit bum he can't travel with team, and no warm ups he is so fat he better warm up!"
Pineiro is a good pitcher! I saw the Met game. He certainly is no shit bum. We all have seen Duncan fail. Wells and Reyes this year, but his resume is the best! Maybe of all time. We all saw him turn Weaver around last fall.
Oh and I suppose there is no way that Miggy would ever condition himself. There were quotes posted here about how he wanted to play for the Cards and how he would work on is defense.
The Cards need to get a front line pitcher. That need will have to be filled through trade. We will have to wait and see.
I am not a huge Burnett fan the injuries worry me, but a rotation of:
Burnett
Wainman
Piniero
Loop
Welle/Mulder
With Carpenter coming back at the trade deadline or early August isn't all that bad.
A line up of:
Ryan
Ankiel
Pujols
Miggy (lf)
Rolen
Edmonds
Kennedy
Molina or FA if we had to trade Yaddy to get Miggy
Will be pretty damn good.
This team well, diffenantly have a better record next year, and will compete for the title.
Bobby I worry about you. You are so filled with negativity and fustration relax man this is all for fun. After all it is just baseball!
Is any of this going to happen? Is it possible? Is it the right thing to do? Who knows we don't even have a GM yet!
...oh no nybirdfan...
Doom, gloom and hypertension prevail over Dewitts money and TLRs stale, antiquanited approach that ONLY made us world champs and kept us in the playoffs for most of this decade.
And we love to assume that TLR isnt even smart enuff to know the end of that run is near and we have to wait for Luhnows brilliance to become manifest thru out the organization. I would hate to be Luhnow, there'll be no other place to point a finger in 5 years.
By the way, I was loving MikeG and cardsgirl95 for lending a fresh argument and different perspective in the threads above. Thx!
by cardschinmusic on Oct 17, 2007 5:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Go Chin
Well
If mediocrity's the best we can do right now, I'd prefer cheap mediocrity with potential. All that being said, we do need pitchers . . . I guess I'd just prefer not to lock up a league average pitcher to a two year deal because the Cards don't get any real benefits out of it except being able to say, "well, we needed a pitcher, and he wasn't THAT bad."
I hope Pinero comes out and tears it up next year -- I'll certainly be rooting for him to do so.
by Ray Lankford on Oct 17, 2007 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
When I though we should bring Piniero back,
realistic
6-7 mil for 2 years?
Silly Question
Is it $13m plus incentives or $13 base?
I can't determine the contextual clues...my wife is going to have to send me to conjunction junction.
not sure
For example here is what Kip Wells had in his contract this season:
award bonuses: $0.1M for Comeback Player of the Year, $0.1M for Cy Young ($50,000 for 2nd or 3rd in Cy Young vote, $25,000 for 4th or 5th), $50,000 each for LDS, LCS or WS MVP, $50,000 for Gold Glove or All Star ($25,000 for selection)
Pineiro will probably have similar things but the 13M number is the guaranteed value that he will receive.
Wainwright - long term?
It's a nice thought
As a Cards fan, I think they should be trying like the dickens to lock him up, but reality has that habit of staring us in the face.
Also, Waino wants to be on a winning team
by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
if you think the Cardinals won't lock him up...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 16, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
c'mon, you can't be certain about that
by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Under control
I think this offseason...
08 - $1M
09 - $3M
10 - $4M
11 - $5M
12 - $7M(first year of free agency...maybe make this or 2013 at $9M a team option)
by cardzfanbub on Oct 16, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I have been critical of Larry
by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply actions
correction
by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
There's an important clarification to be
If Pineiro does become an average pitcher next year -- fantastic! I'll be as happy as anyone about it and I'll root for him to succeed. But that still wouldn't invalidate the point that this is a bad contract. For an (extreme) analogy, imagine playing Russian Roulette with just a single empty chamber. If you don't shoot yourself, does that mean it was a good idea? No. Beating the odds doesn't change the fact that the odds were against you and hence you made a questionable decision.
I remain skeptical that Pineiro is going to turn himself around. I would have liked to see one of our AA arms get a shot for a while. I believe both Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez made the AA jump for the Rockies. While we don't have pitching prospects of that caliber necessarily, we do have a few (Garcia, Boggs) that could probably be around replacement level at the major leagues in the very near future. Pineiro is holding par in an organization that needs to improve.
Solid...
Couldn't have been said any better.
by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
The other thing
I'd say that the value of this contract probably requires him to hit his 80% or 90% (in measuring worst-case scenario at 0% and best case scenario at 100%) when you'd like it to be right around 50%. He might meet, or even exceed, expectations next year but it is more likely that he'll be less valuable than his contract dictates.
Russian Roulette
Sabernomics
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/10/cards-sign-joel-pineiro/
"Baseball revenues are growing, and players are going to reap some of the windfall. This is just the first of many contracts that are going to drop some jaws this offseason."
Anyway regardless of if you beleive what he says it is worth reading his take on it.
I remember the last few offseasons
It's interesting how a losing season changes the perception. Granted, It's not Jockety anymore, but it is the same type of signing from the same team.
Bad Contracts
Mulder (he may never pitch well again)
Carpenter(he is out for prob 2 full seasons)
kennedy (he is not going to get a ton better)
Spezio (no need to pay a utility man so much)
Edmonds (wow, I can't wait till he is done)
Rolen (who knows his health)
These are the ones really hurting us at this point in my opinion. Everyone else is pretty fair in my opinion. Obviously I could add Eck to this list if he signs another 2 year deal. I see problems with guys getting paid way over their contribution. All these guys are getting paid way over what they are contributing.
Kennedy isn't a terrible contract
Well . . .
by Ray Lankford on Oct 16, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, come on...
And it is quite likely that he will return to his career norms (or thereabouts) next year, which are perfectly suitable given his contract.
As I said befor
Here's the real question
Well, if you have to ask, you probably
Two specific questions...
- We talk alot about spending on this blog. What are the actual nuts and bolts figures for what this team brings in vs what it spends? Does anyone know what the true operating budget of this team is? Without specifics it seems pointless. I know we ain't the Yankees but we're not Tampa either. We ranked 12th in payroll this year...what $ is actually available? I'm not saying that spending is the answer but knowing the figures would help.
- What does our scouting/developmental map look like as far as latin america, asia and elsewhere? ...and how does this compare to other clubs? Are there any regions that this team is missing as far as finding new talent?
by DesmetMattdNYC on Oct 16, 2007 4:11 PM EDT reply actions
They are not doing much in the
Cut the doomsday drivel about the rotation
42 NL pitchers threw enough innings this year to qualify for the ERA title. That's not quite 3 pitchers per team. Looper's 4.94 ranked #34. With 16 teams in the NL, there are 32 #1 and #2 pitchers, by definition. By that crude calculation even Looper is a #3 pitcher.
Yeah, I know that Looper fell short of a number of pitchers who didn't have enough innings to qualify, of course. I will grant that his performance rated lower. I'd say, #4. Looper's ERA of 4.94 was not that far from that of Cardinal alums Jeff Suppan (4.62) and Matt Morris (4.89), but Looper cost half as much. Looper's ERA was a bit better than another Cardinal alum, Wood Williams (5.27), better than the fading Dontrelle Willis (5.17 - I hope the Cardinals do NOT trade for this guy and thereby repeat their mistake in trading young talent for a declining Mulder), and better than the #3 pitcher for the 2007 NL Champion Rockies, Josh Fogg (4.94).
So let's cut the criticism of Pineiro and Looper. The Cardinals are lucky to have both at their price, as #3 and #4 in their rotation, to go along with Wellemeyer or whomever else emerges as the #5. All the team needs to do to have a solid rotation is to get a true #2 pitcher to go with Wainwright at #1 (no way do they have enough to offer in trade to get a stronger #1, nor do they have enough left in their budget to grab one off the free agent list). Then Carpenter and Mulder will be a bonus if they can contribute eventually.
Keep in mind that the Cardinals gave 50 starts last year to Maroth, Thompson, and Wells. Replacing their performance with solid players like Looper would have been enough to give the NL Central title to the Cardinals this year.
So relax, the sky is not falling. The rotation will be solid in 08 and, if Mulder or Carpenter can return to form, or if the Cards can pick up a #2 in July, the rotation will be very strong.
I don't like manny ramirez
Ther should be a timer that players must beat
As if he didn't look stupid enough
Look at the scoreboard, Manny, before posing after a homer!
Manny being Manny
I don't understand why Cleveland's pitchers haven't taken offense to his over celebrating of the homeruns he hits.
I probably don't blame them for doing much in such a high stakes series like this but come spring of 2008 I would think Manny gets one up around the ears.
Cleveland doesn't need to retaliate
(Hopefully gonna be 4 games to 1 come 48 hours from now)
Did Joe Buck really
Layoff
Not that that kind of statistic really means anything, but I sure would've thought it'd be the other way around.
Detroit lost because they choked
Is anyone else bothered
I love close games too
Their egomaniacs cough Manny Ramirez cough can take a 7-3 beating as far as I'm concerned.
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