Interesting look at some Pujols' at-bats this season

by WhiteGold on Oct 12, 2007 2:28 PM EDT

While the article offers the small sample size disclaimer, it is still an interesting read that I'm sure many of us would like to have more information regarding.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-albert-pujols/

I remember hearing (sorry, not sure where) that with about two weeks left in the season Pujols had swung at the fewest first pitches in the majors. Anecdotally it seemed as though he was taking more pitches this season and appeared to be looking for a particular pitch. His P/PA was the highest over his last four years as well(4.1--2007, 3.8--2006, 3.9--2005, 3.6--2004).

Is it possible that he may have changed his approach this season to "zone" more pitches at least earlier in counts? If anyone has access to his slugging percentage in various counts over his career I would be very curious to see that.

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Hmmmm...

I actually hate crap like this because the analysis leaves out the biggest factor in hitting: the ball/strike count when the pitch is thrown!!! Hello! If Albert is like most low strikeout hitters, he's taking a ton of 0-0, 1-0, and 2-0 breaking pitches because he's zoning for one pitch and can afford to take a strike if he doesn't get what he's looking for. Obviously this adversely affects his batting average on those pitches because he's only swinging at them when he's behind in the count. There are very few hitters that hit better than .150 when having to hit a pitcher's "out" pitch. Conversely, he's probably hitting fastballs on 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, and 3-2 counts, those generally are hitters counts and pitches swung at are generally in a hitter's "zone" of pitches he's expecting, causing a greater incidence of success. If this analysis was done by cross referencing the type of pitch with the hitter's count it would show us a better statistical regression.

As to the P/PA going up, this is common for sluggers as they get older. They are usually very aggressive hitters early in the count when they're young and develop a better eye and more patience as they age and learn how pitchers pitch them. Also might account for the lack of any power hitters behind Albert the last couple of years. Not as much to fear so he's being pitched around quite a bit more, and as a result his P/PA goes up.

IMHO, the man simply destroys pitches in the strike zone, especially pitches thigh high and lower. He's also become a much more patient hitter in the past couple of seasons, swinging at a lot fewer first pitches and working a lot more counts. I think this has to do with two things:

Eckstein hitting in front of him as opposed to Vina and Hart (David sees a TON of pitches, which gives Albert a much better idea of what's working for a pitcher on a particular day, and he can work his at-bat accordingly. For some reason, many people seem to dismiss this fact for a leadoff hitter when it's one of the more important things he does for a lineup. It's not all about OBP people!)
He's learned how certain pitchers attack him, and is adjusting his at-bats accordingly by seeing more pitches and making people get him out on "pitcher's" pitches. He very rarely misses his pitch nowadays if he gets it. If you watch a lot of Cardinal baseball you'll see this trend. It's especially effective to watch the game while looking at the MLB.com Gamecast which shows location of pitches. Pretty amazing his hit rate for any pitch lower than thigh high.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Oct 12, 2007 2:43 PM EDT reply actions

" It's not all about OBP people!"

I'm not going to do the math, but I'm pretty sure that there is a direct correlation between OBP and number of pitches seen, if for no other reason than the fact that walk rate is such an important component of OBP.

Anyway, the only "starters" on the 2007 team who were worse fits for the leadoff spot than Eckstein were Miles, Encarnacion and Molina...

name P PA P/PA Duncan 1794 432 4.15 Apu 2752 679 4.05 Edmonds 1602 411 3.90 Ludwick 1312 339 3.87 Rolen 1651 441 3.74 taguchi 1272 340 3.74 Kennedy 1135 306 3.71 Ryan 732 199 3.68 eckstein 1765 484 3.65 Molina 1400 396 3.54 Enc 1067 307 3.48 Miles 1541 449 3.43 Ankiel 563 190 2.96

Of course I wouldn't be able to argue much if you wantes to give credit to Duncan for his patience with APu in the on-deck circle...

by SleepyCA on Oct 12, 2007 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Are you....

trying to tell me that Eck doesn't really foul off 143 pitches per at bat, as Fox announcers would have us believe?

Ok, in all seriousness, can't we all just agree that Eck needs to go elsewhere. He's just not good.

by FunkeeC on Oct 12, 2007 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Um, he posted

a .309 BA and a .356 obp

That isn't exactly bad. I'd have no problem with bringing him back for two years if we could lose Kennedy and move Eck to 2nd.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 13, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Contact hiters generally don't see lots of pitches

The batters that draw the most walks seem to be power hitters that swing and miss a lot. Reasons:

Pitchers are less likely to grove a pitch if they know the hitter can park it.
They swing and miss pitches others put in play to end their at bat.

A swing and miss is often better than weak contact from the batters point of view, unless they already have 2 strikes.

Eck is no longer a good player. Thanks, but turn you position over to Ryan (or Edgar, or Tejada)

by DriverZn on Oct 12, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate this

Albert for most of the season, and more pronounced as the season wore on, NEVER took a swing at the first STRIKE. He not only took the first pitch, but he always took the first strike. In my opinion, this hurt his aggressiveness at the plate and was a factor in his reduced slugging. (along with a plethora of injuries) Pitchers were grooving first strikes on the first or second pitch of most at bats to Pujols that he could have killed if he had even considered swinging. By letting them have this gimmee strike, he often got himself out on tougher pitches.

As far as rarely missing his pitch...I couldn't disagree any more violently on this one:) He watched one pitch go right down the middle during the majority of his at bats this year. (even more so during the second half) And I watched almost every game the Cardinals played this year. He was asked about this very topic one morning on KFNS and he stated that "I may never swing at the first strike again. Why should I when I can hit just as well with one or two strikes." Albert is a phenomenal hitter, but why waste the best pitch you see during an at bat. I would argue that his batting eye is so good, there is no need to watch a good pitch go by.

I like the patient Albert, but not the predictable one.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Oct 12, 2007 5:57 PM EDT reply actions

yuh

even my girlfriend who knows just a little about baseball asks me why pitchers don't throw off speed pitches for 1st pitches and 1st strikes to Pujols because "we all know he's not gonna swing".

Pujols, I think, is way to en wrapped with olde school conventional wisdom baseball. He only "cares about his batting average" and doesn't swing on feast pitches because they teach in little league to wait for your first strike (and larussa benches players for swinging at 3-0).

Somebody needs to edu-ma-cate him that even though his precious batting average was only down .005 from his career average, his lack of power caused his RC down 28 from his 2003-2006 totals, which is almost 3 wins.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 13, 2007 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

his bad hamstring

might have had something to do with it, too.

by SleepyCA on Oct 13, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Stop!

Good hitters don't get themselves out. He is a team player, and more pitches mean that a pitcher is going to have a higher pitch count. With the way scouting is Albert may get away with seeing first pitch fastballs for about a week if he starts swinging at them.

Only bad hitters need to swing at first pitches. Albert is not going to strike out and he can get a hits with two strikes. Now I may encourage Ankiel to swing at the first good pitch he sees because he can not hit deep in the count.

You get a chance to see more of the pitchers pitches if you hit deeper in the count as well. This helps other team mates who are paying attention on the bench.

And batting average is a good stat. It points to consistency.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions