To the Moon, Alice!
Sorry for the late post, my internet has not been happy today. All the infrastructure in Central Texas has been utterly destroyed by a third of an inch of ice.
Today, I am going to do a roster matrix on the Houston Astros, and do a bit of a season preview on them:
2007 ROSTER MATRIX
HOUSTON ASTROS
| STARTING 8 | BENCH | ROTATION | PEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ausmus c $3.8M |
Palmiero of $950K |
Oswalt rhp $11M |
Lidge rhp $4M |
| Berkman 1b $14.5M |
Everett ut $1.9m |
Jennings rhp $4.5M |
Wheeler rhp $930K |
| Biggio 2b $4M |
Bruntlett ut $365K |
Woody rhp $5m |
Qualls lhp $376K |
| Ensberg 3b $3.8m |
House of $327K |
T. Miller rhp $1.3M |
F. Nieve lhp $327K |
| Loretta ss $3.3m |
Conrad if $327K |
Backe rhp DL |
Sampson rhp $327K |
| Lee lf $8.5M |
Scott of $325K |
W. Rodriguez rhp $327K |
|
| Lamb cf $1.7m |
|||
| Burke rf $362K |
|||
| TOTAL $40.0M |
TOTAL ~$4M |
TOTAL $21.2M |
TOTAL $6.9M |
| OVERALL | PAYROLL: | $92.1 |
Note: There appears to be a discrepancy between the total of the individual players salaries' (~$70M), and the listed overall payroll $92.5M. Is this deferred money to Clemens and Bagwell?
This team really looks kind of similar to the Cardinals. The cardinals have invested $55.5M in their five highest paid players, while the Astros have invested $47.5M in their top five earners. The main difference is that the Cardinals have invested more cash, proportionally, in their lineup and bullpen, but they also appear to have a better lineup and bullpen.
Here's the thing with the Astros. After looking through their actual roster, they don't look anywhere near as weak as I thought that they would. Adding Lee should make a pretty big difference as far as their overall team performance--it allows them to permanently move Lance Berkman over to first base, and, if Morgan Ensberg rebounds at all, it also gives them a pretty damn solid 3-4-5, or 2-3-4, depending on whether they choose to bat Lee second or fourth. Who knows whether or not Biggio will be able to perform at all, but the addition of Loretta allows them to take Adam Everett out of the lineup. Their regular eight should be a big improvement over the disaster that it was last year.
The rotation also looks pretty solid, with Oswalt-Williams-Jennings looking like a decent 1,2,3 at the top of their rotation. It doesn't look like the monster that it has been in past seasons (barring a Clemens signing), but it still looks like a relative strength.
The problem with this roster is the bullpen and the bench. There are a few decent prospects in AAA Round Rock that they could be calling up (if anyone wants to go check them out sometime this summer, they should send me an email), particularly Hirsh ([editor's note, by Valatan]: Hirsh, of course, was given up in the Jennings trade) and Samson, who may or may not be starting for the Express in April until a spot opens for them. If they call up these guys, and maybe, J.R. House can post 85% of the 1.125 OPS he hit against the PCL last year, this team could end up being pretty dangerous.
Then again, it could be a house of cards waiting for a single injury to come crumbling down.
I guess that's why they play the games.
Regardless, if Berkman, Lee, or Oswalt get hurt, this team will either be relying on very subpar talent or on rookies to earn their way into the postseason.
0 recs |
68 comments
Comments
Hirsch
by themang on Jan 17, 2007 1:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll leave that as is for now
by Valatan on Jan 17, 2007 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No big deal
by themang on Jan 17, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmm...
mlbtradrumors.com links to a Richard Justice article today saying that Ensberg would likely be traded for pitching. this means a few things: 1.) the Astros are idiots, because Ensberg still had a .860 OPS last season, despite being injured for most of the year and getting relegated to spot-starting (only 387 ABs); and 2.) the Rocket isn't coming back to Houston.
i think that Everett will still be in the starting 8 quite regularly. Loretta will be used to spot him, Biggio, Ensberg, and Berkman (or have Berkman move to RF for some games and sit Burke or Lamb).
also, i believe you have forgotten Luke Scott from the matrix, which makes the bench look much better if he doesn't start, and makes the starting 8 AND the bench look better if he does (moving Lamb to the bench). that would also seem to take care of your payroll discrepancy.
by kindred on Jan 17, 2007 1:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tranding Ensberg would be transcendently stupid
by Valatan on Jan 17, 2007 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And they're PRAYING
by sdrone on Jan 17, 2007 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ensberg
They should not trade him, but if they do they should at least get a Jon Lieber type pitcher for him.
If they trade him Mike Lamb will play at 3B.
I doubt Loretta will surpass Everett at SS. Loretta figures to be more of a utility guy than an everyday SS.
by Born in 82 on Jan 17, 2007 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ensberg
by dmb60614 on Jan 17, 2007 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it was a bruised shoulder...
by kindred on Jan 17, 2007 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the injury
by dmb60614 on Jan 17, 2007 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Astrofan here
also, there are loads of errors in your matrix. House is no longer in the system. you don't have a backup catcher shown (probably will be Quintero). Burke is the starting CF, with Scott probably in right. Lamb is not an OF by any stretch of the imagination, but rather a backup 3b/1b. Conrad probably doesn't figure to start the season in Houston, unless there's a roster move, since we've got adequate backup infielders, and it looks like Everett is still going to start at SS with Loretta being relieving all infield spots and getting in on double switches and pinch hits. Garner tends to prefer a 12-man pitching staff, but if he goes with 11, the 14th position player will probably be Lane (yikes), Hidalgo (don't see it), or somebody else that can play some OF, particularly CF in case Burke is a bust there.
Trevor Miller is our lefty specialist, not a starter. the 4&5 spots will probably go to two of Sampson, Nieve, Wandy, and Albers. the bullpen will likely go (in reverse order) Lidge, Wheeler, Qualls (rhp), Miller (lhp), and some combination of Sampson, Albers, Borkowski, Nieve, the other guy we got from Colorado, the guy we picked up in the rule 5, and possibly a surpriser fmom ST invites. most in Houston are hoping that Wandy never dons an Astro uni again.
by the way, love the site. wish we had this much great participation at the crawfish boxes. congrats yet again on the WS. hopefully the central will be a bit more competetive this year. we've got a lot of "ifs" in our lineup, but hopefully we'll be much better offensively and not lose TOO much with defense and pitching. cheers.
by littlevisigoth on Jan 17, 2007 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are the numbers close to right?
by sdrone on Jan 17, 2007 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
check Cot's
he does a great job of updating contracts. i see Biggio's is low. Lamb just got a raise. Same with Lidge. Not sure what Bruntlett's 2007 salary is. A few others should be released soon, unless they go to arbitration, which Houston hasn't done in 10 years.
Cot's should straighten you out, though.
as for the total, i though it was going to be something in the low 90's. Bagwell is getting $7 mil still this year. not sure if that figures into the "payroll" or not. also be aware that supposedly Clemens money has nothing to do with their desired payroll. he'll get paid no matter what it does to the bottom line. at least that's what MLB.com's beat writer always says.
by littlevisigoth on Jan 17, 2007 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my .02...
But I don't think they're seeking anything out at this point, either.
But once the season starts, I have no doubt that they would add to payroll if they need to.
by StrosDux on Jan 17, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Albers
I think it's great that they've got a guy named "Bob" Saccamanno on third.
by liam on Jan 17, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I must echo the Justice comments...
And that's not good enough.
Writer of Wrongs, indeed!
If the 'Stros beat writers (of which he's not one) start echoing him, that's an altogether different story.
But Alyson Footer (Astros.com beat writer), for example, has said as recently as a week ago that the job is pretty much Ensberg's to lose in ST.
So I don't buy it for a moment.
by StrosDux on Jan 17, 2007 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's always interesting
The Card have 3 guys making a ton of cash and a lot more low paid guys (under $1m).
by sdrone on Jan 17, 2007 1:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Backe
by Baseball addict on Jan 17, 2007 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
J.R. House
by the Orioles Jan. 5.
by ArRedbird on Jan 17, 2007 1:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
They don't look so good.
Molina = marginally better than Ausmus + a whole lot better on defense (due to running game defense) despite the GG voting.
Pujols > Berkman
Kennedy = better with the stick and a lot better with the glove. PECOTA has him a win and half better.
Eckstein > Everett
Rolen > Ensberg
Duncan/Speizer/Tags < Lee. PECOTA has the most generous projection for Lee I've seen. I think it overrates him by quite a bit. Still, he plays everyday. If Duncan could hit lefties I'd call it a toss-up.
Edmonds > Lamb. PECOTA has the most pessimistic Jimmy Ballgame projection I've seen and he's still quite a bit better than Lamb. How far offensively Edmonds is above the average centerfielder gets lost sometimes.
JEnc < Burke. Burke is projected .050 higher in OPS and even with defense factored is still a win above Juan.
FWIW, Woody isn't projected very well. ERA 4.78 with a EqERA 4.98. Jennings 4.23. Wandy 5.49. Miller projects nicely, but not for very many innings so it might be a little skewed.
Their rotation has doesn't have much upside.
by RedbirdRay on Jan 17, 2007 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Eck is more valuable than Everett?
by Zubin on Jan 17, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was basing off the PECOTA
by RedbirdRay on Jan 17, 2007 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where do you think
by OKCardsfan on Jan 17, 2007 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wish to
by sdrone on Jan 17, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A line-up with as few letters as possible
I don't know what to do with all those L's. No quick nicknames come to mind, but they sure do have a lot of 'em!
by Titus Pullo on Jan 17, 2007 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's easy
Remember, every time Lidge pitches to Albert, there's a chance of a major conflagration, and he could hit the ball to Peru, too.
by Intheway on Jan 17, 2007 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And Peru...
by Big Rev on Jan 17, 2007 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no doubt
by chuckb on Jan 17, 2007 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Afraid of the big, bad Astros?
FWIW I don't think they'd put Lamb in CF. That's a lot of ground to cover and defense/speed is not in the cards for him - especially in Minute Maid with that crazy hill in CF. I would expect to see Burke and/or Luke Scott in CF, maybe a Lamb/Burke platoon in RF? Lorretta figures to play a lot at second, some at SS and a little at 3B unless they trade Ensberg. They are planning on "trying to use Biggio wisely" accoring their website today:
I know we shouldn't discount them, but I just don't fear them like I did in the past.
by wildman on Jan 17, 2007 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
As I have said before
by Zubin on Jan 17, 2007 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Explain further
by OKCardsfan on Jan 17, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Class?
by Baseball addict on Jan 17, 2007 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok class might be the wrong word
by Zubin on Jan 17, 2007 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
But, they have a pretty rough bullpen. They also have a pretty rough defense, yet contracted a groundball pitcher.
Their offense is average at best.
http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2006/12/extremely-early-projections.html
RG at Replacement Level Yankees Blog ran some early (100 season) projections based on Chone which has them finishing 10 games below us in 4th. I think their are differences in PECOTA and ZiPS...but not 10 games worth. RG usually runs DiamondMind simulations from ZiPS also and posts them.
I'm very curious to see your projections.
by RedbirdRay on Jan 18, 2007 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NL Central
by Futility Infielder on Jan 17, 2007 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Consistency
I was reading this article at Hardball times:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/did-the-rocket-win-st-louis-the-world-series/
and was struck by the comment in the article about the lack of close games in which Nieve pitched for the Astros. The article uses this premise to show that statistically, all other things being equal, having Roger Clemens the whole season probably wouldn't have changed matters.
It led me to think about where the Cardinals rank in a study of consistency based on last years results. We can easily determine the runs/game they Cards created and gave up, along with the averages of the players involved. But how often did they perform to those averages? Were they a model of consistency? Or a team of feast and famine?
Now I have neither the knowledge of where to look, nor the time to do so, but I thought I'd throw it out there in case there was someone who has already done so, or would be willing to.
by realbrit70 on Jan 17, 2007 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Game contributions
- If the starting pitcher posted a WPA score of +.100 or better, I credited him with a win.
- If the starting pitcher posted a WPA score of -.100 or worse, I credited him with a loss.
- If the starting pitcher posted a WPA score between +.100 & -.100, I credited him with a no-decision.
As for how this applies to this situation: Clemens was unbelievable last year according to this system, posting an 11-2 mark with 6 ND's (bested in the NL only by Anibal Sanchez: 11-1, 5 ND). Also, his first 5 starts notched only one win and four no-decisions, meaning he was probably still getting into Rocket-level game shape.
Nieve was basically the space-filler for Roger the first 2.5 months (Bucholz, Oswalt, Pettitte, & Rodriguez started games before & after Clemens' return). For his 11 starts, Nieve posted a 3-2 record with 6 ND's.
Using end-of-season values as a guide, a league-average pitcher would post a WPA value of 0.000 - the very definition of average - and a Cy Young-caliber pitcher would post a WPA value of probably 3.500 over 35 starts. Using that logic, a pitcher like Clemens should average +.100 more points per game than a pitcher like Nieve (generously listed here as league-average).
As a rough guide, let's add +.100 to each of Nieve's game values.
- 4/16 @ ARI (-.054 becomes +.046 - no change)
- 4/25 v LAD (+.116 => +.216 - no change)
- 5/2 @ MIL (+.097 => +.197 - now a win)
- 5/7 @ COL (-.200 => -.100 - no change)
- 5/12 v COL (+.214 => +.314 - no change)
- 5/17 v SF (-.378 => -.278 - no change)
- 5/23 @ WAS (+.077 => +.177 - now a win)
- 5/28 @ PIT (+.014 => +.114 - now a win)
- 6/4 v CIN (+.047 => +.147 - now a win)
- 6/9 v ATL (+.134 => +.234 - no change)
- 6/15 @ CHC (+.045 => +.145 - now a win)
Talk amongst yourselves.
by Solanus on Jan 17, 2007 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can answer the question:
by Red in Chicago on Jan 17, 2007 3:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Snausages
by Mr Clean on Jan 17, 2007 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A couple things...
Wheeler is over $2million for 2007 and Qualls is eligible for arbitration, which will push him up past Randy Flores territory...
by guayzimi on Jan 17, 2007 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sorry...
Seems like the Stros are getting killed by guys in their arbitration years... Specifically Lidge, Ensberg, Wheeler, Qualls. Then they've made it worse by rewarding Biggio for time served and paying Ausmus $4mm.
Ensberg's salary hasn't been determined yet, but it's likely to be around $5mm in '07. That means him, Lidge, Ausmus, and Biggio are going to rake in almost $20mill next year, and all of them have significant issues.
by guayzimi on Jan 17, 2007 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More praise for Cot's
Also one listing all arbitration-eligible players.
I'm mildly curious to find out who it is that's compiling all that excellent information.
by liam on Jan 17, 2007 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops...
by guayzimi on Jan 17, 2007 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They updated service times?
by Baseball addict on Jan 17, 2007 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tragic sausage attacks
Then there's the idiot Simon. Apparently his talents with the bat do not extend to his time in the batter's box.
And I love this comment by Reggie Sanders, ""It's very strange. Live and learn - unfortunately, that's what life is all about," said Pirates outfielder Reggie Sanders. "It was an unfortunate situation.""
"Live and learn"? Yes. A major league baseball player should never pop a 23-year-old female groundskeeper over the head with a wooden bat. Great lesson there, Reggie. Share it with your grandkids.
by Red in Chicago on Jan 17, 2007 4:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
For those interested...
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/01/17/prospects.partone/index.html
by AirForceCardsFan on Jan 17, 2007 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Barton...
by MRCARD on Jan 17, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Astros are not as tough as they've been
They'll supplement their OF defense w/ Luke Scott, who is also awful. Unfortunately for them, Jennings is a below average ground ball pitcher http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/01/categorizing_pi.php and Woody Williams is a flyball pitcher. Their pitching and defense should take a big step backward this year. Lee and maybe Loretta and Ensberg will provide some more offense than they're used to but it won't make up for the hard times their pitching staff will endure this year.
by chuckb on Jan 17, 2007 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pirates finally trade Mike Gonzalez
by chuckb on Jan 17, 2007 5:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
cards stros rivarly
Houston is fair weather and easily bales on there teams. My bro in law as some of you may know are battling on myspace after he said i was reading my daughter the stros history..we went back and forth to see what the stros had on the cards I said games played in a dome..he responded after another comment of mine lack of tru fans housotn 99% cards 0 funny but so true.
at least some cubs fans know the game and are die hards. But as far as fearing goes the last 3-5 for me its been houston, yet i still want to beat the cubs, but id rather kill the stros in houston than win a season series with the cubs
by punchinjudy on Jan 17, 2007 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Astros...Who Cares????
by Tegan on Jan 17, 2007 7:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Off subject
by paulob4 on Jan 17, 2007 10:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
NOO!!!
by CardinalsfanIraq on Jan 17, 2007 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i dont remember where
i wouldnt mind seeing them wear the batting practice unis on some games, maybe sunday games with the alternate caps or something
by MarcGldstn on Jan 18, 2007 7:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
ASTROS AND INJURIES
YOU SAID:
"Regardless, if Berkman, Lee, or Oswalt get hurt, this team will either be relying on very subpar talent or on rookies to earn their way into the postseason."
AND IF PUJOLS, ROLEN OR CARPENTER GET HURT, WHAT WILL OUR TEAM BE RELYING TO EARN OUR WAY INTO THE POST-SEASON???!!!
by TOLAXOR on Jan 18, 2007 7:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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