What happens if we do sign Weaver?

by chuckb on Jan 15, 2007 11:26 AM EST

Today's p-d seems to imply that this will happen -- a 2 year deal (it wouldnt' surprise me if there's an option for the 3rd year). This will make the Cards' potential starting rotation -- Carp, Reyes, Wells, Wainwright, Weaver, Franklin, Narveson, Looper, and, when he's healthy (or if), Mulder. It's clear to me that this would send Looper back to the 'pen which is, of course, where he belongs. But it's not at all clear that Franklin and Narveson would end up in the pen. In fact, it seems that Franklin would get every chance to earn a rotation spot.

But I really can't see Reyes being sent down and the Cards have stated that they're planning on Wainwright being in the rotation. LB suggested the other day that this might lead to a trade of Reyes. But for what?

The Jays and the Rays have made it known that they would trade an OF for an SP and there's no doubt that Reyes would interest either team. Alex Rios or Rocco Baldelli would also look very good in a Cards' uni. But Reyes is under the Cards' control for 4 more years and our farm isn't exactly stocked w/ upper level pitching depth to replace him. Plus, if we acquire an OF that leaves 4 OF's for 3 spots. So it would make sense to include Encarnacion or Duncan and acquire a solid AA pitching prospect to increase our depth. That way, when Weaver and Mulder are gone, we've got another solid young pitcher to replace them.

But Rios and Baldelli aren't much of an improvement over Duncan if you look at last year's #'s or this years ZIPS projections. And I'm not sure who would want Juan or be willing to give us a good pitching prospect for him. So does it make any sense to trade Reyes? It doesn't make any sense to me to put Wainwright back in the pen. He belongs in the rotation and Looper could fill in at closer until Izzy's ready. Since they were signed as free agents, we couldn't trade Mulder, Weaver, Wells, or Franklin until June, I believe. So what happens if we sign Weaver? The one thing I do know is that it's better to have the problem of pitching depth rather than a lack thereof.

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Depth

is the reason we would go after Weaver. If he is reasonably priced, I think it would make sense to add a proven commodity to our rotation. Franklin is a swing guy that can be either in the rotation or the bullpen.
Rotation Looks like:
1.Carp
2.Weaver
3.Wells
4.Reyes
5.Wainwright

After Mulder comes back:
1.Carp
2.Mulder
3.Weaver
4.Wells
5.Reyes

Wainwright goes back to the bullpen where he is groomed as the closer of the future because Izzy's contract is up at the end of the year.
Just MHO.

by DD502DK on Jan 15, 2007 11:44 AM EST reply actions

Wainwright

is a starter of the future. He's a good closer but I think he can be an even better starter. Besides Chris Perez is the Cardinals closer of the future.

When Mulder comes back I wouldn't be surprised if Tony sends Reyes back down. I don't think the skipper likes or trusts him very much. I wish this wasn't the case.

"And that's a winner. A World Series winner for the Cardinals."

by Bird Watcher on Jan 15, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

I've said this before

but I just can't see Reyes being sent down. I could see him traded, but not sent down to the minors. If Tony doesn't like Reyes, he'd probably just tell Walt to ship him out of town. Reyes has value and could probably give Tony another decent bat. Why would he mess around with that and just keeping sending Reyes back and forth?

by themang on Jan 15, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

It's not like Wells

has been that great the last few seasons. He can lose his job, or someone will. Or someone could get injured. I would hope they wouldn't part with Reyes, but i almost would sooner see him successful elsewhere if the Cards continue to insist on 'fixing' him. I have no problem with him pitching down, i just have a problem with the sudden loss in mph since he's been meddled with.

I could see Rios, except it I can't see Jocketty doing any deals with Ricciardi.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 15, 2007 11:59 AM EST reply actions

Why wouldn't

Jocketty trade w/ Ricciardi? There aren't any Jim Bowden in his history are there?

by chuckb on Jan 15, 2007 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

if i'm not mistaken

didn't he recently take a jab at the cardinals right after they won?

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 15, 2007 11:22 PM EST up reply actions

Leading the League in Starters' Ws

Wells
Wainwright
Weaver

Trading Reyes for anything less than a top-flight offensive OF talent would be crazy, morally bankrupt and just plain un-American.

Not that I think Reyes is Roger Clemens Jr., but as this offseason market shows, starting pitching (even marginally competent starting pitching) is currently the most precious commodity in baseball. If you have that, under your control and at a bargain-basement price, why would you trade that for anything except something equally precious? Exciting young talents they may be, but Baldelli and Rios are not equivalent value in this market.

by blove121 on Jan 15, 2007 2:14 PM EST reply actions

Normally I would say that you were right

But what if Jocketty did a deal like the White Sox did -- trading Brandon McCarthy for 2 young pitchers, one of whom (Danks) will likely be as good or better than McCarthy? Or what about Reyes and an OF (Duncan or Juan) for Rios, Baldelli and a good AA pitching prospect. I wouldn't just get rid of young pitching because, you're right, it is the most precious commodity in baseball. But what if we could get an OF AND get more young pitching, so that we don't lose a young pitcher but, in fact, we trade 4 years of Reyes for 6 years of someone who will be as good as Reyes?

by chuckb on Jan 15, 2007 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

another point to consider

is the young pitching coming up behind reyes. by all accounts hawksworth is on a fast track; he might be available some time in 2008.

jaime garcia also is considered to be on a very fast track and might be pitching in st louis as early as next season (ie 2008). i realize he only pitched in A ball last year, but it was his 2d year of pro ball; he worked out with the rookie-league team in 2005 but wasn't allowed to pitch, i can't exactly remember why. 2008 will be his 4th pro season and his 3d active season. plenty of successful pitchers got through the organization that quickly:

rick ankiel, like garcia, split his first active pro season between low and high A ball; in his 2d year he made 24 starts at double A and triple A and was in the majors by august.

matt morris also had the same split as garcia in his first pro year -- low A, high A. he made 27 double A starts and one triple A start in his 2d pro year, and he made the big-league club out of spring training in his 3d pro year.

dan haren: year 1 in low A, year 2 in low A / high A, got to the big leagues in year 3 and was good enough to be a replacement-level pitcher; by his 4th pro year he was pitching in the world series.

anthony reyes: year 1 in high A / double A, year 2 at triple A and reached the majors for a cuppa coffee, year 3 pitching in the big leagues (and the world series).

so while i agree with the principle that young pitching is the name of the game, but it's not as if reyes is the only young pitcher in the system. garcia and hawksworth might be available pretty soon, and behind them are pitchers like ottavino and boggs and mccormick. if wainwright sticks, and just one of those other youngsters sticks, and reyes can be converted into a young position player with all-star potential . . . . you'd have to consider it. the drays and dbacks both are overstocked with cheap young outfielders but deficient in pitching; the mets have shopped lastings milledge, and reyes is tailor-made for shea stadium.

by lboros on Jan 15, 2007 4:24 PM EST reply actions

I think this was

what got me thinking. You mentioned trading Reyes a few days ago and I thought that might work. But neither Baldelli nor Rios project any better offensively than Duncan and, though Duncan is terrible defensively, how many wins will that really cost us -- 1 or 2? Is that worth trading a young pitcher? Using Weaver rather than Reyes probably costs us 1-2 wins also. So why trade Duncan?

Maybe we could get something if we traded Juan and had an OF of Edmonds, Duncan and Rios or Baldelli. Maybe we could get a decent AA pitcher for Juan and then had Hawksworth, Garcia, Ottavino, Boggs and the other pitcher ready in 1 1/2 to 2 years. We'd have 6 years of that other pitcher as opposed to 4 of Reyes. I've got to be missing something, though, don't I?

by chuckb on Jan 15, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

the one consideration

is star potential. reyes has front-of-rotation potential; his upside is #2 starter, possibly even ace status. i don't know whether hawksworth or garcia is in the same class. it might be that 4 years of reyes is more impactful than 6 of the other guys; i'd certainly rather have 4 years of reyes as opposed to 6 of narveson, for example. it's not entirely clear what level those other two guys can attain.

then again, i don't know whether reyes can reach his full potential in our organization.

by lboros on Jan 15, 2007 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

that's right

I was only comparing a pitcher equal to Reyes to Reyes. I'm not sure how high Reyes' upside is -- maybe a legit #2? From what I've seen of BP's and John Sickels' ratings, I'm not sure they think Hawksworth's ceiling is that high. So my thoughts were that we'd have to get someone whose ceiling was #3 or #2 rather than a back end pitcher b/c, you're right, I'd rather have 4 years of Reyes than 6 years of Narveson.

by chuckb on Jan 15, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

Why trade Reyes?

I have seen this in other discussions as well. The assumption that we will trade Reyes or other young talent if Weaver is brought back. Why? If we sign Weaver for 2-3 years at a reasonable price and he pitches well in year one of the contract he becomes a very valuable trading chip. If there are young arms in the organization that could replace him in the rotation we could trade him. If we can get him for around $7-8MM/year it is worth the gamble. I dont mind the idea of a third year as it would add value if he pitches well (and I think thats what it will take). And if someone blows you away with an offer for Reyes you can take it and not kill your rotation. Having too many pitchers would be a great problem to have.

by Lucky Chew on Jan 15, 2007 5:25 PM EST reply actions

You can't sign Weaver for the STL discount

(which is the only way the Cards would sign him I think) and then turn around and trade him. It burns your credibility for any future discounted negotiations.

by Zack Morris on Jan 16, 2007 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

I also wonder what the odds of keeping Wainer

around after he becomes a FA are. From everything I read, he badly wanted to be an Atlanta Brave. Now, that's not to say he won't have a sense of loyalty to the Cardinals or embrace the fans and culture surrounding the club but I wonder what impact that would have on potentially trading him down the line here.

If Weaver is signed, ideally the rotation going into August would be:

Carpenter
Weaver
Reyes
Mulder
Wainwright

Wells and Franklin in long relief if not DFA'd.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 15, 2007 7:55 PM EST reply actions

Starting pitching is certainly overpriced in this

market, but you have to consider that power hitting outfielders are getting pretty damn overpriced too. After the Soriano, Beltran, and Lee deals, you have to start taking having a quality OF pretty seriously

by Valatan on Jan 16, 2007 6:20 PM EST reply actions