leave it to weaver

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 2:48 AM EDT in St. Louis Cardinals News

thanks to Hardcore Legend, VEB has the first images of jeff weaver in his new uniform; you gotta check these out. scott boras has already contacted the site looking for copies . . .

so which inning do you think tipped the scales --- the 1st or the 4th? i figure it had to have been the 1st; by the 4th inning, the depths of stl's desperation would have been so plain that anaheim would have been demanding rasmus hawksworth and jaime garcia for weaver. . . . . among its many virtues, this transaction has diverted ev'yone's attention from another unwatchable loss. i'd have traded away terry evans for that alone. weaver is merely gravy.

and a potentially savory broth, at that. his acquisition is pure upside -- absolutely no chance this comes back to bite the cardinals. if weaver gets it back together, the cards roll into the playoffs with a competitive pitching rotation; if he doesn't, they are no worse off than before -- and still have the same fallbacks (chiefly wainwright) that are available currently. way to go, walter.

and way to go terry evans, whose great, out-of-nowhere half-season spared the organization from having to part with a more central prospect. evans may someday wear a major-league uniform; i hope it happens for him. but i'm not worried that the cards have traded away a future star.

i briefly noted some of jeff weaver's selling points a few days ago; they include

a pattern of improved performance after the all-star break
a good quality-start pct in 2004-05, and a q.s. pct no worse than ponson/marquis/suppan in 2006
a 3:1 strikeout-walk ratio
27 wins and a better-than-league-avg era over the past two years

and then there's the fact that weaver is returning to the weaker league, where he has enjoyed his greatest success. i took a quick look at guys who moved from the al to the nl at midseason and made at least 10 starts in each league, to see if we have any reason to expect some kind of bump. since 2001, there are only seven guys who fit this description; six of them lowered their era after switching leagues:

player	ip	h	w	so	w-l	era	whip
05 r drese: tex	70	96	24	20	4-6	6.46	1.714
05 r drese: was	60	66	22	26	3-6	4.98	1.467

05 p astacio: tex	67	79	11	45	2-8	6.04	1.343
05 p astacio: sd	60	54	26	33	4-2	3.17	1.333

03 s ponson: bal	148	147	43	100	14-6	3.77	1.284
03 s ponson: sf	68	64	18	34	3-6	3.71	1.206

02 b colon: cle	116	104	31	75	10-4	2.55	1.164
02 b colon: mtl	117	115	39	74	10-4	3.31	1.316

02 c finley: cle	105	114	48	91	4-11	4.44	1.543
02 c finley: stl	85	69	30	83	7-4	3.80	1.165

01 j baldwin: cws	95	109	38	42	7-5	4.61	1.547
01 j baldwin: lad	79	82	25	53	3-6	4.20	1.354

01 t okha: bos	52	69	19	37	2-5	6.19	1.692
01 t okha: mtl	55	65	10	31	1-4	4.77	1.364

TOTAL AL	653	718	214	410	43-46	4.51	1.43
TOTAL NL	524	515	170	334	31-32	3.90	1.31

it's a small sample size and an unscientific look at the numbers, which are not park-adjusted; i wouldn't place too much weight on them. but to the extent these precedents suggest anything, they suggest that yes, pitchers like weaver often do pitch better after crossing over to the national league at midseason. take it for what it's worth, a mildly upbeat note.

i'll stick to the hopeful best-case i outlined last friday: "it does not strain the imagination to suggest that weaver might come in here, make 16 starts, turn in 9 or 10 quality starts and win 7 games." none of the cardinals' competitors in the division is likely to add a better pitcher than that; in what currently looms as a tight three- or four-way race for the division, weaver has a chance to make a real difference.

his arrival may also give the cardinals some maneuvering room for another trade; maybe some fringe a.l. contender has talked themselves into thinking that jason marquis' 10 wins are not a fluke and would offer a slightly-below-avg outfield bat in exchange. as the trade deadline gets closer and mark mulder's prognosis becomes more certain, weaver's presence will give the cards a little more flexibility than they had this time yesterday.

more on the trade at get up baby, cardinals diaspora, 26th man, the birdwatch, and reverend redbird.

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Comments

Good analysis.

The key line is this:

his acquisition is pure upside -- absolutely no chance this comes back to bite the cardinals. if weaver gets it back together, the cards roll into the playoffs with a competitive pitching rotation; if he doesn't, they are no worse off than before -- and still have the same fallbacks (chiefly wainwright) that are available currently. way to go, walter.

For how this deal worked, it makes perfect sense.

Now the Cards just have to decide when he gets to start.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2006 3:04 AM EDT reply actions

Good work

on the photos, Hardcore Legend.

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm excited

I thought they'd have to give up one of their prime trading chits for Weaver, but they've still got the prospects to get a borderline left fielder if so inclined.

by DanUpBaby on Jul 6, 2006 3:46 AM EDT reply actions

Who's out?

I'm assuming it's Ponson, but he's still slated to start today. It shouldn't happen, we've heard it won't happen, but if Reyes goes back down I will revolt.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 6, 2006 8:10 AM EDT reply actions

oh, man

that would mean TLR thinks Jeff Weaver is a better alternative than An. Reyes. If this happens I may start the website www.firetlr.com

by Schnake on Jul 6, 2006 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Glad we have him

If he can turn some things around (Duncan must be just itching to work with him), this is a great pick up. Plus, if he enjoys a resurgence, he may want to re-sign next year for a short 1 or 2 year deal. Boras already tried the "1 year deal at a low market rate" tactic, and it bit them both this year. But if Weaver goes back to being a decent pitcher, and the Cards can offer a guaranteed 2 year deal for, say, 14mil total (probably unrealistic, but who knows), then they may have just helped their rotation for a few years and gotten a bit of a bargain.

by cmat on Jul 6, 2006 8:15 AM EDT reply actions

I dunno...

I just checked his stats vs Marquis and Suppan, and it seems to me that he is prone to big innings as the rest of the Cards rotation lately, both due to high HR rate and high BABIP and batter average. Only the K & BB are better, but not enough to compensate for the horrible HR tendency. It seems to me that either he throws a good pitch, or he throws a fat one, and this usually is related to "perfect pitch" approach due to "stuff" problems (mental, overtrhrowing, low speed, injuries).

I hope he proves me wrong with a 7-3 record

GO CARDS!!

by SuperSeve on Jul 6, 2006 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions

"Weaver" may not rhyme

with "savior," but it's close enough. And seems a lot closer given the events of the past couple weeks. Under the circumstances, I agree this was a VERY good move.

sigh Remember that long-gone age of innocence (I refer here to the offseason, of course) when the pending free agency of 4/5 of the Cards' rotation seemed like a PROBLEM? Well, I mean, it IS a problem in the sense of, who do we get to fill their slots. But I think the "can-we-afford-to-re-sign-Mulder-and-if-so-will-there-be-any-benjamins-left-over-for-Suppan-and/or-M arquis?" ship has sailed. Sailed, hell. It's discovered a new route to India.

But I digress. Good move, Walt. Now how's about a bat?

"Players like Pujols don't come along once in a lifetime. They never come along." -Buzz Bissinger

by PujolsFor President on Jul 6, 2006 8:53 AM EDT reply actions

The Benjamins

Here is a line from the ESPN article about the trade:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2510568

---------
Los Angeles general manager Bill Stoneman said the Cardinals will assume Weaver's contract, but the Angels will give St. Louis an undisclosed amount of cash in the deal.
---------

So we take over the $4 million or so left on his contract, the question is how much cash did they give us? The only reason I care is because it might affect how big a salary dump we are willing to take on in acquiring a bat later this month.

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 6, 2006 9:16 AM EDT reply actions

but they are going to save

$1.5 million in incentives to sid ponson, who is still 10 starts away from his 1st bonus threshold. subtract out that incentive $$$, plus however much cash the angels sent over, and it's not going to bump the overall payroll by very much

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Good

Hadn't thought about Sid's incentives, that's good news. Three thumbs up in that case.

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 6, 2006 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

According to the P-D

In the short little subheadline on the sports page at STLtoday, it says the Angels are supposedly picking up half of Weaver's salary. With the Ponson incentives figured in, it sounds like we're getting Weaver very cheap.

by stlnd on Jul 6, 2006 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

if they're splitting it

then weaver adds $2m to the payroll, minus ponson's $1.5m in incentives . . . . bumps payroll by $500K.

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Izzy's Pitch Tinkering

A little blurb in this notebook on the P-D's website:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/AE146111D005C065862571A3001A98BE ?OpenDocument

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

he's improved

but he's gotta quit giving up so many darn HRs

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 6, 2006 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

don't be surprised

when Reyes is sent down. I'm a big fan of the trade and have tried to figure this out w/o Reyes being sent down. I can't do it unless Weaver arrives today and takes Ponson's start tonight w/ Ponson being released...extremely unlikely. If we've got to be down to 25 by gametime tonight, we could send Duncan, Kinney or Reyes down. Reyes makes the most sense. Weaver then takes Reyes's start Saturday. Reyes has to stay down 10 days but w/ the all-star break coming up, that only means he misses Saturday's start. If Ponson bombs tonight, we can release him and Reyes takes the 5th start coming back from the all-star break.

If Weaver pitches Saturday, we don't need Reyes until Monday the 17th. The way Ponson, Suppan, and, to a lesser degree, Marquis have been pitching, we're likely to need Kinney and I just don't see them sending Duncan down after only 2 starts.

The other possibility is that Walt has something else going on involving moving Marquis for an OF and could get it done before gametime tonight. Don't bet on it! He probably couldn't pull that off so quickly. Like it or not, Reyes goes to Memphis w/ a possible (hopeful) return on Monday the 17th vs. Atlanta.

by chuckb on Jul 6, 2006 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

1 other possiblity

is that Ponson is released today and Marquis is moved ahead 1 day and pitches tonight w/ Weaver going tomorrow. A possibility but I'd say sending Reyes down is more likely.

by chuckb on Jul 6, 2006 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

that's very insightful

analysis; it may very well play out that way.

wouldn't seem to make much sense, though, to give a start in a key series to a guy who you intend to dfa . . . .

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

another thought

they might send down j-rod, who you may have noticed is not getting much playing time . . . . 9 at-bats in the last two weeks.

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

The Most Viable Option

LB, I think that sending JROD down makes the most sense, given his lack of playing time and the glut of 4th OF types.

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

there for

a bit j-rod was hitting well in the 2-hole in front of pooholes, i thought maybe he would be our everyday left fielder...too bad he came back down to earth.

in the last week gooch is hitting .409!

by lopey986 on Jul 6, 2006 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

I was right with you, Lopey986. Now, however, they have another left-handed hitting OF to platoon with So and it makes little sense to maintain the glut at the expense of the rotation's second-best starter in terms of recent performance (not that it takes much).

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe w/ regular playing time in AAA

he can get back on track. I think he's good and I think he can be a benefit to the team off the bench (maybe just maybe a regular) but he has to have regular playing time IMO to get into any kind of rythm at the plate.

by azruavatar on Jul 6, 2006 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

My thoughts exactly, with a twist.

I've been going on this assumption that JRod could be a decent regular IF he got steady playing time. So I would send him to AAA for steady playing time, but then use him as a trade chip instead of bringing him back. Much as I don't want to trade him, we have seen that a) TLR just doesn't listen to me, and won't EVER give JRod a full-time shot; and b) part-time work doesn't work for him.

Of course, if my theory about steady playing time is incorrect (which is entirely possible), never mind.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 6, 2006 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

They have to keep JRod around

for the weekend to face Lidge.

by guayzimi on Jul 6, 2006 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

It

sort of depends on what Weaver has been doing in the last few days, doesn't it? If, say, he threw some pitches yesterday, I don't see him going tonight. Bumping up Marquis might make sense (assuming his throwing schedule permits it).

One other possibility: send down J-Rod and go with 13 pitchers, using Weaver out of the pen during the Houston series. The bullpen would get a break, J-Rod would have a chance to rediscover his power stroke and TLR and DD could see what they have in Weaver before making a decision. The obvious downside is the thin bench.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jul 6, 2006 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

it always seems to help

to short rest marquis... i might as well make that my signature... until some other team takes the bait.

http://rabidredbird.blogspot.com

by gthedamned on Jul 6, 2006 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Tyler Johnson

isn't on the 25 man on the official site. Read into that what you will.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 6, 2006 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

if it is TJ,

then I'm guessing it's Suppan or Ponson going to the Pen

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 6, 2006 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

that's

interesting, Rev. No question TJ hasn't done much to warrant staying. But all in all, I would have thought TLR would insist on keeping a second lefty in the pen. Houston has three left-handed swingers -- Lamb, Palmeiro and Munson -- plus switch-hitting Berkman, who hits better against righties. After the break, the Cards play the Dodgers, who have Drew, Lofton and a few others.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jul 6, 2006 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

he is; right below Izzy...

by cardsrul on Jul 6, 2006 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Tyler Johnson Splits

vs. Lefties

30 AB/4 H/.133 BA/.289 OBP/.167 SLG/.456 OPS

14 K/7 BB/7 RBI/1 2B/0 3B/0 HR

vs. Righties

32 AB/12 H/.375 BA/.474 OBP/.625 SLG/1.099 OPS

3 K/5 BB/10 RBI/2 2B/0 3B/2 HR

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks bgh

he's more trustworthy vs a left-hander than flores is at this point

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

To Support LB

Flores L/R Splits

vs. Lefties

53 AB/.226 BAA/.317 OBP/.264 SLG/.581 OPS

12 H/2 2B/0 3B/0 HR/5 RBI/15 K/6 BB/1 HBP

vs. Righties

45 AB/.289 BAA/.377 OBP/.378 SLG/.755 OPS

13 H/2 2B/1 3B/0 HR/3 RBI/10 K/7 BB/0 HBP

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

i don't see him

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 6, 2006 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I finally figured out what you are talking about..

...TJ is on the 'Active Roster', Weaver is not.

Weaver is on the 'Depth Chart', TJ is not.

Could just be a mistake, or could be the real deal.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2006 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Reyes' service

Moving Reyes down would also achieve the goal of pausing his service time, (and his potential Supre2 status) which Larry spelled out a couple weeks ago(?). But if he was brought up at that time because the team just COULD NOT WAIT for a fresh arm in the rotation, then why would you send him out now? Have the Cards' fortunes improved so much in the last two weeks that you can NOW afford to send the 2nd best pitcher to Memphis? No.

Put Ponson in the bullpen, and/or send one of the BP rookies out to Memphis. Something, anything.

Keep Reyes off the Memphis shuttle.

meat

youneverknow

by meat on Jul 6, 2006 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

Someone please tell me

that Weaver's fastball can top 90 mph.

by sdrone on Jul 6, 2006 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

even if

he threw 100 im sure LaDunc would persuade him that the pitch-to-contact method is the way to go.

by lopey986 on Jul 6, 2006 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Mark Hamilton makes BP Future Shock column

Hamilton is already ranked by BP's Kevin Goldstein, although he explains earlier in the column that many players get eventually moved to 1B so to be a legit 1B prospect from the beginning you have to hit a ton:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5273

----------
9. Mark Hamilton, Cardinals
Age: 21.9 Hitting: .360/.439/.680 in 14 G (SS)

The Cardinals got one of the steals in the 2006 draft with Hamilton in the supplemental second round, as the Tulane star's draft stock seemed to never recover from a slow start at the plate despite the fact that he finished among college baseball's leaders in both home runs and walks. Anything but fleet of foot and a below average defender, Hamilton's bat will have to carry him to the big leagues, but it's plenty good, as evidenced by five home runs in his first 14 pro games. In a system desperate for power hitters, Hamilton is already the best in the St. Louis system.
--------

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 6, 2006 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

i dont

know wether to be happy that they are saying he is our best power prospect or to be sad because he just got drafted and he is already our best power prospect.

by lopey986 on Jul 6, 2006 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Prospect

Or even more sad with the fact that he plays 1B, which means that he is behind The Greatest Baseball Player in the World and that, given his lack of speed, may not make a good outfielder. Oh well, maybe we can trade him, Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright for Barry Zito...

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

It really would be nice to see Weaver throw ....

...tonight, but I just can't figure out what roster move they will make, other than Reyes, which is a bit depressing, stupid short term/smart long term.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2006 11:17 AM EDT reply actions

Ponson

Does anybody think we can get anyone for him after we DFA him? Maybe just a grade C prospect from the low minors or something? Some teams are more desperate for pitching than we are.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 11:30 AM EDT reply actions

If they are that desperate...

Then they could have topped our relatively weak offer for Weaver. Maybe if you DFA him someone will give him a bag of beans for him and you save a few hundred thousand in salary but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 6, 2006 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Yankees

Maybe the Yankees who 1. have the money to just take Ponson's contract without a second thought, 2. are pretty desperate pitching wise, 3. had no interest in Weaver b/c of his piss-poor history in NY.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Ponson is better than Chacon

Chacon
4W - 3L 6.71 ERA 11GS 30K

I think even Sidney can do better than that.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Offf subject....

According to MLB.com A.J pierzynski and Nomar are the leading vote getters for the extra all-star spot. I believe Nomar deserves it, but for the A.L it has to be Liriano, doesn't it? That guy has been unhittable! 9-1, 1.99 ERA, 94 K's , in 81.1 IP.

"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Jul 6, 2006 11:34 AM EDT reply actions

sorry..

evidentally OFF is tough word to spell.

"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Jul 6, 2006 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

NO MORE PALE SOX IN THE ALL-STAR GAME. get out the vote for Liriano. He is much more deserving than A.J. Pain-in-the-assinzski.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

the allstar

game is a joke. ozzie guillen chose like 4 of his own players when there are a number of more deserving players. fans are dumb too.

by lopey986 on Jul 6, 2006 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

As of early yesterday...

...Liriano was leading it. White Sox must have gotten a 'get out the vote' thing going. Ozzie should be a man about this, drop Buerhle and pick up Liriano.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2006 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

i am

on the white sox mailing list (not sure how that happened) and everyday i receive something about how i should vote for aj.

one e-mail read "PUNCH AJ FOR YOUR FINAL VOTE!"

i got all kiddy at "PUNCH AJ"...who would pass up the opportunity for that!?

by lopey986 on Jul 6, 2006 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

aww

GIDDY not kiddy...

we really need an edit button!

by lopey986 on Jul 6, 2006 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

we do

it's the #1 most requested alteration on the SB Nation google group. . . . but not forthcoming, apparently. sorry

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Michael Barrett

sure didn't

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 6, 2006 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe I'm Alone...

But I think the All-Star Game should be a joke. It should just be for fun & for the fans. A time to lighten up & goof off. This whole making it "count" is rediculous to me. And history has proven that fans vote players in, not based on numbers, stats or ability, but on popularity & the all-important "cuteness factor". (gag)

by ArachNerd on Jul 6, 2006 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree about Liriano...

but Travis Hafner should be getting twice as many votes as Pierzensky. The man is a stud and on an MVP type pace: .319 BA; 24 HR, 70 RBI, .460 OBP, .656 SLG.

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jul 6, 2006 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to mention...

Hafner has 4 Grand Slams already this season. I voted for Hafner and Nomar.

by BigdJC on Jul 6, 2006 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Cappy...

got my vote. That guy is just sick.

by Brock20 on Jul 6, 2006 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

What type of indicator?

Is the Weaver move a precursor to more changes yet to come.

Given the stat lines...

Weaver, 6.29 ERA/1.52 WHIP
Marquis, 5.78 ERA/1.41 WHIP
Suppan, 5.17 ERA/1.56 WHIP
Ponson, 5.60 ERA/1.64 WHIP

...we must assume that this is a lateral move. Granted, the peripherals are better for Weaver and he may be a better talent but we have still made the move hoping for improved performance, which is exactly what we are hoping for from what we already have.

I'm not harping; I like the move. It was the best one we could make at this juncture and I applaud it. I'm just saying that the need for improvement may be more than Jeff Weaver and I wonder if the Weaver move is an indicator of more changes on the horizon. What say you, Band of El Birdos?

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

im not

sure there are any moves we couldnt make without weaver that we will now be able to make. trading marquis couldve been done without adding weaver. i dont think we can package weaver into any deals to get them done. i think adding weaver is just hoping he finds a groove in the NL again and pitches well in the second half for us.

by lopey986 on Jul 6, 2006 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Tomko-esque?

Not that I am suggesting the results will be the same, but the hopes seem to be.

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

4th OF and 5th starters

As mentioned above, we still have a lot of 4th OF types, and now a lot of 5th starters.

I like the Weaver deal - the possiblity of substantial improvement (remember Woody Willams?) in return for a guy who got briefly hot in A and AA is shrewd dealing with minimal investment.

But WE STILL NEED A LF WHO CAN HIT. And it wouldn't hurt to settle on Luna at 2B.

by madridbend on Jul 6, 2006 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Out In LF

Now that they've bolstered the rotation while giving up very little in exchange - they should be able to really focus on making a deal for a power bat, full-time left fielder, right?

by ArachNerd on Jul 6, 2006 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

The Timing is the Thing

We now have a couple few weeks to assess the starting rotation and see which need is more glaring: bullpen, rotation, or offense.

My bet is a move will be made based upon the following:

Mulder's recovery
Weaver's performance
The pitch-to-contact trio's (P2C3) performance
Reyes' performance
Duncan's performance
Bullpen's performance

On the OF note, this was in Buster Olney's blog today on ESPN.com MLB Insider. It was Rockies-focused, but still affects the Cards. Mr. Olney says that they may have to "...wait until the healthy portion of available outfielders -- Aubrey Huff, Todd Hollandsworth, Bobby Abreu and possibly Carlos Lee -- drives down Soriano's market value."

Link (Paid Subscription Required):

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster#20060706

How much will a flooding of the market drive down cost, not only for the first tier guys, but also for the Craig Wilsons?

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm continually baffled by why we haven't pulled

the trigger on Wilson. Unless the pirate GM (littlefield?) is still asking for Reyes why not trade a middling prospect. Worst comes to worst and you get a better OF later before the deadline Wilson is re-elegated to the bench. Still an improvement.

by azruavatar on Jul 6, 2006 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

They're asking too high still

Pittsburg is still asking for an arm and a leg for Wilson. There are many teams interested in him b/c he is more attainable than Jones, Abreu, etc. therefore Pittsburg thinks they can get a steal for him. I'll bet after a few other OFs move around and the demand lessens the price for Wilson will drop dramatically.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

the key stat lines

aren't this year's, but the last two years'. the hope is that the larger, nl-centric 2004-05 sample more truly reflects weaver's ability as an nl starter, and that the 1/2-season american league sample is just an aberration.

weaver in 2004-05 was a better pitcher than either supps or marquis. again --- he won 14 games last year for a 71-91 team. can you picture either suppan or marquis doing that --- pitching well without a ton of support?

neither can i.

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Meh...

I'm going to take a wait and see attitude with this deal. Just like Bender said about Moliere in The Breakfast Club, this deal just "doesn't pump my nads". Let's hope I'm wrong...

by cardsrul on Jul 6, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions

Dayn Perry Piece on FoxSports.com

Quote of Enticement:

"Names like Dontrelle Willis, Livan Hernandez and John Smoltz may be available, but with higher-payroll outfits like the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets also in the market for pitching, the Cardinals may find themselves at the back end of the derby. That's to say nothing of the Cardinals' gallingly weak farm system. They have little to deal, and their top bargaining chip, Reyes, is in no way expendable."

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5757604

Not that this is anything we don't already know and have not already discussed, but I still thought that I'd pass the link along.

by bgh on Jul 6, 2006 12:19 PM EDT reply actions

yeah

well unfortunately he's probably right. we can probably swing some mid level talent, but no stars. I really am tired of hearing how weak our farm system is, though. Not saying it's great, but is it really "gallingly weak"? C'mon, Dane I thought you were smarter then that.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 6, 2006 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

alternately, however

it's not like the Yankees have a ton of prospects to deal, either.

The Mets, however...

by Valatan on Jul 6, 2006 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

if you thought

dane was smarter than that, then you haven't read his column very often

by chuckb on Jul 6, 2006 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Outfield or Pitcher?

I think the VEB community agrees that we need another proven starter, just like the names mentioned above.
However, we probably can't get them. It is a sellers market for pitching and we don't have the resources. Period.
It is a much stronger buyers market for strong outfielders, I think with Weaver we go after a Carlos Lee type and hope they can bolster the offense to cover the mediocre pitching.
Not the best situation, but maybe all we have.

Stuck in Packer hell.

by WiscCard on Jul 6, 2006 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

Best availible

When we traded for Rolen, everyone thought that we needed a pitcher, but when a perennial All-star capable of MVP-style performances came along, it made no sense to pass up the opportunity to pick him up. I think that approach makes sense--if Andruw Jones is obtainable, get him, if Dontrelle or Schmidt is, get them.

by Valatan on Jul 6, 2006 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Andrew Jones

I think the Braves make a good trading partner for us... and I think that Andrew Jones would be a very good trade. I dunno if we have the chips to trade for him... but I really think that Jones would be great for us. Picking up Jones means you can let Jimmy go at the end of the season and actually get better in the outfield. It would also greatly improve our overall defense. If we picked up Jones I would see him playing RF when Jimmy plays center and moving Juan over to LF. The reports were that the Braves were close to trading Jones for Brian Anderson who is hitting just above .200 this year... not inspiring. So why could we not package some of our talent in AA and A to the Braves for Jones? So long as LaDunc committed to Wainwright in the rotation I wouldn't mind trading Reyes for Jones... that would certainly get it done in a one for one deal... I dunno the prospect of adding Andrew just seems really really enticing to me. Look at the lineup

Eck
Jimmy
Albert
Scotty Ro
Jones
Juan
Yadi
Luna

or maybe something like this...

Eck
Luna
Albert
Scotty
Jones
Edmonds
Juan
Yadi

by BigMac545 on Jul 6, 2006 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

In case you didn't watch the Braves series...

...Andruw Jones looked a step slower and 5 years older than last season. He was gimping around and appeared to injury himself every time he went to the wall.

I'd rather keep JED if that were the case.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2006 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Whats next?

With Weaver on board who is next? Weaver can not possibly be as bad as the bottom three in our rotation have been over the past month. He is probably going to put up better numbers considering he is more Carp like than the rest with a live arm and hard stuff. Could we possibly see a move to unload one or more of the bottom three guys and to get a bat? What am I hearing about Victor Diaz?

Lonedawg I see the ball, I hit the ball.

by Lonedawg on Jul 6, 2006 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

CNN.com

Has an article about how Gillick is going to 'blow up' the Phillies before the trade deadline. Of course, I don't think Howard or Utley, or Rowand for that matter are going anywhere...however everyone else is availible and probably for less than their market value.

For those of you thinking about Abreu, think again. He's got a condo in New York in the same building as Johnny Damon and the Yankees are looking for outfield help (to replace Sheffield for the longterm). If Abreu ended up with the Cards before the Yankees, I'll cut the grass with my teeth.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2006 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

Pat Burrell

Maybe?

19 HR 55 RBI .250 Avg .377 OBP .516 SLG

I think he is making a pretty hefty sum of money ($9.75 million according to ESPN.com), so maybe the Phils would trade him in a salary dump type move for less than he is worth. We could trade Marquis or Soup to offset the cost a bit. Or do a 3 team deal to get some better prospects to trade the Phils.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Burrell

Also mashes left-handed pitching to the tune of .296 avg .462 OBP .690 SLG. I like him more and more.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Burrell

I have him on my fantasy team so I distinctly noticed that last week he sat for either 4 of 5 or 5 of 6 games. I think the Phils have soured on him. He has a pretty big contract, but I would be all for adding him if the cost wasn't too high (read prospects not to include Wainwright and Reyes).

OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Jul 6, 2006 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know

mlbcontracts has him getting $13MM in '07 and $14MM in '08 (which puts him higher than Scotty). That's a good chunk of payroll for a career .258/.360/.479 hitter with what I would call less than average defense.

by Just Rope Ball on Jul 6, 2006 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

well..

depending on how good of prospects we give up to get him maybe the Phils would eat a little bit of that. Remember Larry Walker came here as a salary dump and we paid him $15 or $16 million last year. I don't mind paying more down the road to give up less prospects wise. The tight fisted owners might now agree, however.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

walker

we paid him $6 million last year, not $16 million. Paying more $$$$$$ to Burrell than Rolen just isn't feasible w/ our payroll. Unless the Phils ate a huge chunk of it, we shouldn't even consider it.

by chuckb on Jul 6, 2006 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe

if we got Philly to pay something like $8-10 million over the rest of his contract. Gave up some semi-decent prospects (not reyes, wainright, or rasmus) to get him. I think he is a much better option than Craig Wilson or some other guys who is only marginally better than our current LFs. Also he is a much more realistic option than Andruw Jones, Carlos Lee, Soriano, or Abreu. I got news for you if you think the Cards can get one of those guys, they can't.

We've already taken an unhappy player out of Philly who was under-achieving and he is now an MVP caliber player. Why not give it a shot again? Burrell would certainly add some pop to our singles offense and while his average is low, his OBP is still decent.

If we want to win a world series we are going to have to over pay one or two players. Not everyone is going to be a bargain. The owners need to open up their pocketbooks in order to add a solid bat in LF without mortgaging the future by trading good prospects. They are raking in cash with the new stadium and kept the payroll steady in the offseason supposedly so we can add a player mid-season. I hope Jeff Weaver isn't that player especially since his addition will likely only increase the payroll by about $1 million.

Okay that is a long enough rant. I like Burrell and the owners need to open up their pocketbooks.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

mlbcontracts.blogspot.com

traded to St. Louis 8/04 with $17.667M left on contract ($4.167M in 04, $12.5M due in 05, $1M due 06)
Colorado agreed to pay $8.5M, including $6.75M of $12.5M 2005 salary

Yes, there was an option for '06 at $15M, but the buyout was only $1M, and may have even been paid by Colorado.

by john vb on Jul 6, 2006 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

two things

whenever i think of the weaver deal, i can't help but think of the UHF skit wheel of fish...the ladys name was weaver...

anyone see on mlbtraderumors that the cubs and jays are talking about twalker, and might move barret?

by punchinjudy on Jul 6, 2006 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

weavah

Okay, Weaver, listen carefully. You can hold on to your red snapper...

by john vb on Jul 6, 2006 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

absolutely

nothing nothing

by punchinjudy on Jul 6, 2006 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Where did you see the recent post-AS improvement?

From his 2003-2005 and career numbers, it looks like he's pretty similar pre- and post-AS, if not worse after. Maybe I'm not looking in the right place.

by pip on Jul 6, 2006 3:05 PM EDT reply actions

2004 and 2005

When he was in the NL with the Dodgers he pitched better after the AS break. 2003 he was with the Yankees and was put in the bullpen sometime after the all-star break with bad results 7.77 Era after the break which seems to be a abberation.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

the last two seasons

ie 2004 and 05, he's been better after the break. i discounted weaver's 2003 pre/post split because he got dumped from the rotation after the break --- only made 7 starts, not much of a sample to go on. i also discounted 2002 --- he got traded just after the break, moved from a pitcher's park into a park that can be tough for rhp, and switched from a full-time starter to a swingman.

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Reds add an arm as well

They traded a minor league pitcher for Eddie Guardado.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20060706&content_id=1542 629&vkey=pr_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

Not sure about

Not sure how good the Reds prospect is but that seems like a good trade for him. He is a solid reliver. I would of like to seen that trade by us.

by DimitroffVodka on Jul 6, 2006 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Guardado

at this point is a notch below the Hancocks and Thompsons of the world

by guayzimi on Jul 6, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Make that

a couple notches below Hancock. As for lefties in the pen, the Reds have Kent Mercker (5.32 era), a guy in the clink, and Guardado with his 5.48. They're in worse shape than us...

by guayzimi on Jul 6, 2006 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

guardado looks washed up

to me. 8 hr in 23 innings this year, and no longer even gets left=handed hitters out reliably.

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

kinda like...

... rincon? you (or somebody around here) called it this winter, LBoros. that move was a complete bust.

by kindred on Jul 6, 2006 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

The Reds needed a left-handed reliever...

...because one of them they had is in jail as of last night for 3rd degree sexual assualt. What exactly is '3rd degree' sexual assualt, I have no clue.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2006 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

probably some kind of

inappropriate touching or groping

by lawman3842 on Jul 6, 2006 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

that looks like 4th degree

3rd degree involves nonconsensual intercourse without force:

http://danenet.wicip.org/dcccrsa/saissues/handbook/law.html

(I'm assuming this happened in milwaukee?)

by SleepyCA on Jul 6, 2006 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

doh

I missed the fact that they completely redefined sexual "intercourse". So maybe it was groping...

by SleepyCA on Jul 6, 2006 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions

baseball think factory's transaction oracle

said the cardinals acquired "the bad Weaver," referring of course to Jeff's much better brother. I think "bad weaver" is a really great nickname, with nice badge-of-honor potential should he pitch well here.

My other super-insightful contribution to this discussion is to suggest that maybe somebody should send dduncan a large box of scooby snacks for use as a motivational tool.

by isaac on Jul 6, 2006 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

HAHA

scooby snacks. THAT is hilarious.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 6, 2006 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Another good prediction by lboros

Not only was our fearless leader spot-on about Rincon being the likeliest Cardinal bust of 2006 -- he predicted Suppan's meltdown too. See this March 25th post/thread about Boom and Bust candidates for the 2006 Cardinals. Here's the relevant passage:

"the guy whose stock seems most overvalued to me is jeff suppan.... first, his era last year was aberrantly low vis-vis his overall career -- not only more than a run lower than his career average, but also 0.59 lower than his previous career best. it's the rough equivalent of a career .260 hitter batting .300 one season; you don't expect him to pull it off two years in a row.

"second, supps simply didn't pitch as well last year as his era suggests. his OPS allowed was .759, slightly worse than league average, yet his era was 20 pct better than league average. doesn't add up.... suppan was a master damage-controller last year, getting a lot of double plays and pitching out of a lot of two-out jams. with runners in scoring position, he held opposing batters to a .230 average; in all other situations they hit .289 against him. i doubt he can pull that off two years in a row.

"if he can't, his era will likely return to the 4.25 range, right where he was in 2004. he won 16 games that year and pitched well in the playoffs, so i'm not exactly predicting a catastrophe. but 4.25 isn't going to get you a 16-10 record this year, not with this offense; 13-13 is more like it; and if he's a bit unlucky it might be 11-15 or something."

Right now that 4.25 era would look pretty damn good....

As for Weaver, I agree with the near-unanimous approval of this move. However, after the staff's performance so far this year, perhaps we shouldn't place so much faith in the "Dunc can fix 'em" strategy...

by DCRedbird on Jul 6, 2006 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

yeah, 4.25 would look

fantastic right about now . . . . supps' selling point has always been his consistency --- he rarely blows 'em away, but he usually holds the other team to 3-4 runs and keeps the cardinals within striking distance. but he has allowed 5 or more runs in 5 of his 17 starts, and has pitched 7 or more innings in only 3 starts . . . . eating fewer inn this year, and doing it less efficiently. cards are 8-9 in his starts this season

by lboros on Jul 6, 2006 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Good call LB!

I remember thinking when you wrote that piece that you were being a little too pessimistic with Suppan, but now it seems quite optimistic. I've always liked Suppan, but I'd rather have a SP who will give up 6 or more runs every sixth game, and fewer than four in the other five games, such as Weaver, then a pitcher who gives up 4-5 runs consistently like Suppan. I spent some time defending Suppan earlier this season and now I'm thinking that he's a bigger problem than Ponson or Marquis.

by rob is back on Jul 6, 2006 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

How do we know

Supps isn't hurt like Mulder?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 6, 2006 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't guess we do know

But if he is hurt, then he probably won't be able to help us much this year and you have to ask yourself if he's worth resigning for next year after an injury.

I like Soup and so I hope that he'll get back on track, regardless of what the problem is. He just hasn't pitched that well all season, and has been getting worse with time, so I'm a little skeptical that he can turn it around now.

by rob is back on Jul 6, 2006 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions