Game 19 Open Thread: April 24, 2006

carpenter perez
2-1, 1.67 1-2, 6.75
the reds DFA'd tony womack. i don't endorse acquiring him, let's be clear about that; but if you were the type of organization that thought timo perez still had something left, then wouldn't you leap at the chance to get womack? . . . .
one commenter at red hot mama thinks womack will make his way back to st louis:
danup listens in as tony and walt weigh the relative merits of timo vs john gall . . . at cardinals diaspora, athooks runs the stl roster through the price-at-the-pump test; a gallon of pujols'll set you back pert' near $10. ah, but the mileage . . . . reverend redbird has been running an excellent new feature -- daily Win Probability charts. . . . . . today's installment of derrick goold's weekly q+a feature, PostCards, ranges from spivey to bigbie to jrod to luna and beyond . . . .
drop on by the bucs dugout for a pirate fan's take on chris carpenter.
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Please tell me that...
Rather than Timo Perez, why didn't we try to land Lawton, whose asking price is low (according to the Seattle paper), as is his $400K salary. He might actually positively affect the offense with his good OBP.
Of course, isn't it fairly obvious at this point that Rodriguez needs to be penciled into the LF slot every day for the next month to see what exactly we have with him?
rodriguez...
however, my thought (without ever having met the guy) is that tlr is a first-impression type guy. especially with new guys to the club. if you got some skills, he's going to give you a shot. and you better damn well perform. and i don't mean just at the plate. you better hit it, throw it, catch it and run the bases and you better do them all well. if you don't, you have a tough way to go to get to every-day status. as much as i like rodriguez (i'm never going to call him j-rod, no matter how much he begs) at the plate, he is susceptible to lapses in the field and on the basepaths. therein lies the rub with tlr. he made some pretty bonehead baserunning mistakes last year along with some mis-plays/errors in the field. my guess is that's what's keeping tlr from making rodriguez our every-day leftfielder.
but again..i agree with you. let's see what the guy can do over a month.
by busch league on Apr 24, 2006 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Last season...
Also, Encarnacion has had his fair share of blunders on the basepaths and with the leather, except he hasn't bothered to hit at all. At least Rodriguez hits the ball some. Plus, he brings some left/right balance. I guess getting a bloated 3 YR/$15M contract ensures you of playing time.
I'm sure you know these, but here are Rodriguez's numbers from last season:
149 AB/.295 AB/.382 OBP/.436 SLG/5 HR/24 RBI
Granted, the vast majority of his AB's came against righties, but he did about the same in his twenty-or-so AB's versus lefties (which is an even more dreadfully small sample size). But still, plug him in and see if we need to shop for an Encarnacion replacement as opposed to a LF.
Of course, we all need to keep in mind that Encarnacion is not this poor, but he probably is not as good as he was last season, either. In the end, he'll probably be at .260 AVG/.320 OBP.
I was just...
Another interesting stat is that Encarnacion has accounted for 10% of the Cardinals' plate appearances and has a .200 AVG/.232 OBP/1 RBI to show for it.
Here's the link to the final page of the 2006 VORP ratings: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=11385
Not wanting to be a Negative Nancy, Encarnacion had a VORP of 20.7 last season, which was #108. Reggie Sanders was at #100 with a 23.1 VORP. It is going to get better for Juan.
Here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=11428
Good point, but reasoning doesn't quite fly
by Baily on Apr 24, 2006 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember...
I agree 100% when you discuss JuanE's baserunning, fielding, and hustling (lack of). In the Reds game when he came in as a "defensive" replacement? In fact, the biggest problem I had with the signing was that it seemed counter-Cardinal. He does not and never has played the game the way the Cards have over the last few years. JuanE does not do the little things well.
JuanE has a fat contract and is going to play because of it. Honestly? We should trade for Lawton and platoon him and Encarnacion in RF. $4M for a RF combo isn't all bad. Then, play Rodriguez in left. If he shows inadequecy against lefties, platoon him with So. Further down the road, if a game-changing bat is available, maybe you make a move.
By the way, the JuanE abbreviation is wonderful. It makes typing much easier. I don't if you thought of it, but it is very much appreciated.
Baily...
v. Left 325 AB/.262 AVG..344 OBP/6 HR/40 RBI
v. Right 1266 AB.265 AVG..314 OBP/45 HR/192 RBI
Now, compared to this young season...
v. Left 18 AB.167 AVG..211 OBP/0 HR/1 RBI
v. Right 47 AB.213 AVG./.245 OBP/0 HR/0 RBI
His offensive production will even out. We just need to be patient. That said, I don't know that his hustle will pick up or that his baserunning and fielding will improve, which is troublesome.
As an aside, who would I "platoon" Encarnacion against? I have no idea, looking at his splits. I posted that before doing the research. Perhaps play him based on his success against specific pitchers? Because, obviously, he has no comparitive success based on the pitcher's throwing arm.
Out on the Hill
by Birds on the Bat on Apr 24, 2006 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
re: womack
(ha! sorry, couldn't help myself!)
by Cayronut on Apr 24, 2006 5:13 PM EDT reply actions
The Win-Probability
http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx
Yep.
Eventually, I'd like be doing my own so I don't have to wait until the next day to post them.
Dave Studeman has a nifty spreadsheet anyone can use, but I think it has a bug. I'm having trouble with it.
Ya
no problem
Next Week's Schedule
tonight's lineups
Edmonds in the #2 spot tonight...
McLouth cf
Wilson ss
Bay lf
Wilson 1b
Burnitz rf
Randa 3b
Sanchez 2b
Cota c
O. Perez p
Eckstein ss
Edmonds cf
Pujols 1b
Rolen 3b
Encarnacion rf
Molina c
Luna 2b
Taguchi lf
C. Carpenter p
My only concern
I like Jimmy 2nd verses lefties
Shannon
Are you kidding me?
Bay is a good player and the Wilsons arent bad, but I really wouldnt call this a very good lineup.
Yadier...
by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:18 PM EDT reply actions
Why do teams...
by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:22 PM EDT reply actions
the leg gets in there...
No, they don't. It was a horrible call, and it looks like it cost us a run.
a
I'm noticing a lot of flyouts, along with the double.
JuanE GETS A HIT!
Not as sharp
by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:37 PM EDT reply actions
Home runs are nice,
by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:40 PM EDT reply actions
There ya go, Juan!
by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:50 PM EDT reply actions
Cubs are on ESPN in high def
PLus I always like to wait for Zambrano to flip out.
No HR
by eeyorethedog on Apr 24, 2006 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right about that
I am "willing" it to happen...
How about the bottom of the order tonight!
here come hancock in an eat-innings situation
Nomar does his best Pujols impression...
I'm not entirely sure what to make of the fact
Also, at what point do they decide to start moving players like Anderson and Rasmus up through the minors? I know its early and we would hate to rush them but when you have a catcher hitting .412, it seems like you have to move them up a level.
He's mashing
Plate Discipline
Anderson and Rasmus are only 19 years old and playing in a full-season league for their first time this year. The Cards'll probably let them strengthen in Quad Cities for the full season. They're some exciting players, for sure.
Honestly
There's absolutely no reason this old "proven major leaguer" crap should continue, but it does. Encarnacion <<< JRod, John Gall, etc.



















