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Around SBN: Knicks Beat Lakers With Familiar Strategy

Game 19 Open Thread: April 24, 2006


carpenter           perez
    2-1, 1.67          1-2, 6.75

Update [2006-4-24 18:58:58 by lboros]: edmonds bats #2 tonight for the first time this season; full lineups are in the comments thread.

the reds DFA'd tony womack. i don't endorse acquiring him, let's be clear about that; but if you were the type of organization that thought timo perez still had something left, then wouldn't you leap at the chance to get womack? . . . .

one commenter at red hot mama thinks womack will make his way back to st louis:

I predict Womack ends up on the Cardinals again. . . . . He may come back to haunt us with the Cardinals. Not that I am terribly afraid of him, but he is better than Aaron Miles, that is for sure.
thanks for sharing your opinion, mrs womack.

danup listens in as tony and walt weigh the relative merits of timo vs john gall . . . at cardinals diaspora, athooks runs the stl roster through the price-at-the-pump test; a gallon of pujols'll set you back pert' near $10. ah, but the mileage . . . .  reverend redbird has been running an excellent new feature -- daily Win Probability charts. . . . . . today's installment of derrick goold's weekly q+a feature, PostCards, ranges from spivey to bigbie to jrod to luna and beyond . . . .

drop on by the bucs dugout for a pirate fan's take on chris carpenter.

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Please tell me that...
...Walt & Tony are not going to be thinking along the lines of Brian & Joe last season when the Yanks tried to convert Womack into an OF. Wow, that would be like 2 Timo Perezes instead of just one.

Rather than Timo Perez, why didn't we try to land Lawton, whose asking price is low (according to the Seattle paper), as is his $400K salary. He might actually positively affect the offense with his good OBP.

Of course, isn't it fairly obvious at this point that Rodriguez needs to be penciled into the LF slot every day for the next month to see what exactly we have with him?

by bgh on Apr 24, 2006 5:00 PM EDT reply actions  

rodriguez...
you're rodriguez point is well taken.  and i'm of the same opinion.

however, my thought (without ever having met the guy) is that tlr is a first-impression type guy.  especially with new guys to the club.  if you got some skills, he's going to give you a shot.  and you better damn well perform.  and i don't mean just at the plate.  you better hit it, throw it, catch it and run the bases and you better do them all well.  if you don't, you have a tough way to go to get to every-day status.  as much as i like rodriguez (i'm never going to call him j-rod, no matter how much he begs) at the plate, he is susceptible to lapses in the field and on the basepaths.  therein lies the rub with tlr.  he made some pretty bonehead baserunning mistakes last year along with some mis-plays/errors in the field.  my guess is that's what's keeping tlr from making rodriguez our every-day leftfielder.

but again..i agree with you.  let's see what the guy can do over a month.

by busch league on Apr 24, 2006 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last season...
...I would have been in complete agreement with TLR. Rodriguez, to be sure, has fielding problems and baserunning lapses. However, given the ineptitude of our OF offensive production so far this young season, we need some punch.

Also, Encarnacion has had his fair share of blunders on the basepaths and with the leather, except he hasn't bothered to hit at all. At least Rodriguez hits the ball some. Plus, he brings some left/right balance. I guess getting a bloated 3 YR/$15M contract ensures you of playing time.

I'm sure you know these, but here are Rodriguez's numbers from last season:

149 AB/.295 AB/.382 OBP/.436 SLG/5 HR/24 RBI

Granted, the vast majority of his AB's came against righties, but he did about the same in his twenty-or-so AB's versus lefties (which is an even more dreadfully small sample size). But still, plug him in and see if we need to shop for an Encarnacion replacement as opposed to a LF.

Of course, we all need to keep in mind that Encarnacion is not this poor, but he probably is not as good as he was last season, either. In the end, he'll probably be at .260 AVG/.320 OBP.

by bgh on Apr 24, 2006 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was just...
...looking at the VORP ratings on Baseball Prospectus and Encarnacion's VORP is -8.5, which ranks #542 out of 545 players who are given a VORP rating on the site. That is incredible to me.

Another interesting stat is that Encarnacion has accounted for 10% of the Cardinals' plate appearances and has a .200 AVG/.232 OBP/1 RBI to show for it.

Here's the link to the final page of the 2006 VORP ratings: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=11385

Not wanting to be a Negative Nancy, Encarnacion had a VORP of 20.7 last season, which was #108. Reggie Sanders was at #100 with a 23.1 VORP. It is going to get better for Juan.

Here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=11428

by bgh on Apr 24, 2006 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good point, but reasoning doesn't quite fly
I'd like to see what J-Rod can do on an everyday basis as well. However, given the good presentation made by busch league, why does TLR continue to trot out Encarnacion everday? JuanE's first impression has been atrocious and has without question has already made as big if not bigger boneheaded baserunning errors and misplays in the field. Plus, no one that I can recall has ever questioned J-Rod's effort. There have been several questions already about JuanE's hustle in the field and running out grounders. Plus, J-Rod's whack against a lefty Friday night was a rocket, albeit an out. But compare that to how Encarnacion has looked vs. right-handed pitching (let alone vs. left-handers). I just don't get it.
Baily

by Baily on Apr 24, 2006 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Remember...
...Rodgriguez's laser to the hill in center in the NLCS vs. the 'Stros last season when he came up to pinch hit? Does anybody remember what game that was in?

I agree 100% when you discuss JuanE's baserunning, fielding, and hustling (lack of). In the Reds game when he came in as a "defensive" replacement? In fact, the biggest problem I had with the signing was that it seemed counter-Cardinal. He does not and never has played the game the way the Cards have over the last few years. JuanE does not do the little things well.

JuanE has a fat contract and is going to play because of it. Honestly? We should trade for Lawton and platoon him and Encarnacion in RF. $4M for a RF combo isn't all bad. Then, play Rodriguez in left. If he shows inadequecy against lefties, platoon him with So. Further down the road, if a game-changing bat is available, maybe you make a move.

By the way, the JuanE abbreviation is wonderful. It makes typing much easier. I don't if you thought of it, but it is very much appreciated.

by bgh on Apr 24, 2006 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Baily...
...I went and check out some of JuanE's splits over the 2003-2005 time frame that is available at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=5904&type=batting3:

v. Left 325 AB/.262 AVG..344 OBP/6 HR/40 RBI
v. Right 1266 AB
.265 AVG..314 OBP/45 HR/192 RBI

Now, compared to this young season...

v. Left 18 AB.167 AVG..211 OBP/0 HR/1 RBI
v. Right 47 AB
.213 AVG./.245 OBP/0 HR/0 RBI

His offensive production will even out. We just need to be patient. That said, I don't know that his hustle will pick up or that his baserunning and fielding will improve, which is troublesome.

As an aside, who would I "platoon" Encarnacion against? I have no idea, looking at his splits. I posted that before doing the research. Perhaps play him based on his success against specific pitchers? Because, obviously, he has no comparitive success based on the pitcher's throwing arm.

by bgh on Apr 24, 2006 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Out on the Hill
Can't tell you which game that was.  But that was the only time I've ever seen a ball caught on the hill.  Usually the scene of face plants.  Has anybody else ever seen one caught there?
Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Apr 24, 2006 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

re: womack
nah, i'm sure the Nat's will make first dibs on him.

(ha! sorry, couldn't help myself!)

by Cayronut on Apr 24, 2006 5:13 PM EDT reply actions  

The Win-Probability
charts are coming straight from fangraphs.com

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx

A diamond is just a lump of coal that performed well under pressure

by joker24 on Apr 24, 2006 5:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Yep.
I plead guilty. Fangraphs allows anyone to post the charts, as long you acknowledge them as the source.

Eventually, I'd like be doing my own so I don't have to wait until the next day to post them.

Dave Studeman has a nifty spreadsheet anyone can use, but I think it has a bug. I'm having trouble with it.

by erik on Apr 24, 2006 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ya
Not rippin you or anything if I came off that way at all...they are great graphs and that's a great site.
A diamond is just a lump of coal that performed well under pressure

by joker24 on Apr 24, 2006 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

no problem
didn't feel ripped. i actually did my own graph in MS Excel tonight, but it was a bit on the ugly side.... :)

by erik on Apr 25, 2006 4:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Next Week's Schedule
I just peeked ahead at next week's schedule.  Seems a little odd with two at Cinci then two at Houston then on to FLA.  I can't remember back to back two game sets like that.
OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Apr 24, 2006 6:01 PM EDT reply actions  

tonight's lineups
(from yahoo)

Edmonds in the #2 spot tonight...

McLouth cf
Wilson ss
Bay lf
Wilson 1b
Burnitz rf
Randa 3b
Sanchez 2b
Cota c
O. Perez p

Eckstein ss
Edmonds cf
Pujols 1b
Rolen 3b  
Encarnacion rf
Molina c
Luna 2b
Taguchi lf
C. Carpenter p

by DCRedbird on Apr 24, 2006 6:52 PM EDT reply actions  

i saw this
and i approve --- hope it takes

by lboros on Apr 24, 2006 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

My only concern
is how much Jimmy hates the two hole - or how much the two hole hates him. Although maybe it will haelp him snap out of his funk

by azruavatar on Apr 24, 2006 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Jimmy 2nd verses lefties
And Rodriguez verses righties. J-Rod OBP was .382 last year, and this year so far is .435. And he has some pop, seems like a perfect fit.

by erik on Apr 24, 2006 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh CRAP
I hate when Edmonds bats 2nd.  

by sdrone on Apr 24, 2006 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shannon
Mike just said that this is a very good lineup that the Pirates throw at you.  
Are you kidding me?
Bay is a good player and the Wilsons arent bad, but I really wouldnt call this a very good lineup.
OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Apr 24, 2006 8:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Yadier...
just keep nailing would-be basestealers like that and you will get no complaints from me about your bat.

by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Eckstein
was safe. Way to go, Blue.

by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Why do teams...
give Albert anything remotely close anymore?

by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:22 PM EDT reply actions  

the leg gets in there...
WTF kind of quote is that?  "the leg gets in there a bit ahead of the tag, but normally they give that out to the defense".

No, they don't.  It was a horrible call, and it looks like it cost us a run.

by SleepyCA on Apr 24, 2006 8:24 PM EDT reply actions  

a
How's Chris looking, for those of us without visual/audio?

I'm noticing a lot of flyouts, along with the double.

JuanE GETS A HIT!

by SirVLCIV on Apr 24, 2006 8:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Not as sharp
as usual. That called strike 3 on the Uncle Charlie was nasty, tho.

by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Home runs are nice,
but the ground balls with eyes and doinky singles sure are easy on the eyes, too.

by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Squeeze!
Man, I love the National League!

by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:45 PM EDT reply actions  

too bad
eckstein got robbed for a second time.

by SleepyCA on Apr 24, 2006 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Umps
are tearing David up tonight...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on Apr 24, 2006 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

There ya go, Juan!
Nice diving play in right. Geez... sure is quiet in here tonight. crickets chirping

by 26thMan on Apr 24, 2006 8:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Cubs are on ESPN in high def
and I like to watch them lose.

PLus I always like to wait for Zambrano to flip out.

by sdrone on Apr 24, 2006 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

All right...
Juan'cion's first HR of the season right here...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on Apr 24, 2006 9:38 PM EDT reply actions  

No HR
But at least he looks like he cares tonight

by eeyorethedog on Apr 24, 2006 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're right about that
He seemed very upset with himself after popping up...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on Apr 24, 2006 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

good call ;)
it has to really, really suck to be a pirates fan.

by SleepyCA on Apr 24, 2006 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am "willing" it to happen...
so far unsuccessfully... ;)

How about the bottom of the order tonight!

Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on Apr 24, 2006 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or not...
E3. We'll take it...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on Apr 24, 2006 9:42 PM EDT reply actions  

booing
was definitely well-deserved there.  These umps are just awful.

by SleepyCA on Apr 24, 2006 10:06 PM EDT reply actions  

here come hancock in an eat-innings situation
5-run lead and they call him in...i really think he's taking that Cal Eldred role.

by azruavatar on Apr 24, 2006 10:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Nomar does his best Pujols impression...
He just hit a grand slam off of Lidge in the top of the 9th...
Here comes "that man" again...

by iron duke75 on Apr 24, 2006 10:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm not entirely sure what to make of the fact
that Gall is hitting .387 with a .427 OBP.  It concerns me slightly that he isn't walking more but I wonder if that is because he is just mashing everything right now.  I just worry that he would need better plate discipline to transfer his success over to the majors on a more permanent basis.  Any thoughts?

Also, at what point do they decide to start moving players like Anderson and Rasmus up through the minors?  I know its early and we would hate to rush them but when you have a catcher hitting .412, it seems like you have to move them up a level.

by azruavatar on Apr 24, 2006 10:46 PM EDT reply actions  

He's mashing
but when you have so many guys in the minor leagues, there's bound to be a few on hellfire through the first month of the season.  Call me in June.
A diamond is just a lump of coal that performed well under pressure

by joker24 on Apr 24, 2006 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Plate Discipline
Gall's only struck out 5 times this so far season while walking 7 times, so his plate discipline shouldn't be a concern. There's no point in him working counts against AAA pitchers right now when he's seeing the ball well enough to drive runners home. Working counts is what Spivey looks to be doing, when he should be swinging for extra-base hits like Gall is... That Gall's only got the one home run when his bat is so hot may be more of a concern than his relatively low walk total. His window of opportunity has pretty much closed though. Larry Bigbie's rehab assignment will be over in a little over a week and he'll have to join the 25-man roster. Would it benefit Gall's career or the Cardinals offense to call him up now only to send him back down again a week later?

Anderson and Rasmus are only 19 years old and playing in a full-season league for their first time this year. The Cards'll probably let them strengthen in Quad Cities for the full season. They're some exciting players, for sure.

by liam on Apr 25, 2006 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Honestly
You don't get better by destroying weak competition. If we aren't going to call the guy up, trade him to someone who will. I'd bet he has value somewhere.

There's absolutely no reason this old "proven major leaguer" crap should continue, but it does. Encarnacion <<< JRod, John Gall, etc.

by SirVLCIV on Apr 25, 2006 7:12 AM EDT reply actions  

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