weather permitting

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 2:53 AM EDT in St. Louis Cardinals News

it's good that they didn't play. the juxtaposition of a big ballgame in flushing vs a dead ballplayer 7 miles away in manhattan. . . . too surreal. it would have diminished both the ballgame and the mourning. the city, and the nation's baseball fans, deserved a day to absorb the news. it's not any less sad today, but the shock has worn off and we've had an opportunity to contemplate. that seems to make it more appropriate now to get on with things of a non-life-and-death nature.

here's what i'd like to know: why couldn't the cardinals have gotten one of these playoff rainouts in '04 or '05, when it would have brought their pitching depth to the fore? postseason off-days usually render depth meaningless and reward roster top-heaviness, a dynamic that seems to disadvantage the cardinals every october. now, with an off-day eliminated, they're in a playoff series that will play like a stretch of the regular season -- and wouldn't you know it, they lack the deep staff to capitalize.

they will benefit, though, from the opportunity to pitch carpenter in game 2. bernie reported last night that tony is leaning toward moving carp up. assuming he goes that way, the pitching pairings will go like this:

STL		NY
weaver	GAME 1	glavine
carpenter	GAME 2	maine
suppan	GAME 3	trachsel
reyes	GAME 4	perez
weaver	GAME 5	glavine
carpenter	GAME 6	maine
suppan	GAME 7	trachsel

this alignment seems to give the cards a clear advantage in four of the seven pairings (2,3,6 & 7), with game 4 a tossup. it also heightens the onus on the mets to win game 1 behind glavine; lose that one with carpenter going in game 2, and they might well find themselves down 0-2 heading to st louis. also to the good, this arrangement forces the mets to use their best starting pitcher on short rest in game 5, diminishing his value. granted, weaver will also be on short rest, but he's not supposed to win that game anyway, so no loss to our side; the short turnaround threatens the mets' advantage, not the cardinals'.

above all, this alignment reduces the chances that st louis will get knocked off before carpenter's 2d start; he can now pitch game 6 on normal rest, rather than waiting around for a game 7 that might never be played.

both bullpens will likely have to carry heavier loads, particularly in games 4 (when the least reliable starters face off) and 5 (when guys go on short rest). an early-inning blowout by any starter for either side in games 1 through 3 could have repercussions, ie a burned-out bullpen. if the mets need bulk innings to preserve the 'pen, they can turn to darren oliver, who pitched pretty damn well this year (4-1, 3.44 era) and is a left-hander, which means the cardinals won't hit him. oliver, as you know, is a former starter -- he was in the st louis rotation as recently as 1999 -- and still capable of munching innings; he had 10 outings of 3 innings or more in 2006. the cardinals have a ready long-relief counterpart in josh hancock, who surpassed the 3-inning mark 5 times and pitched reasonably well in the bargain.

how about the short relievers -- which team's corps is better equipped to handle some overtime this week? the table below summarizes the number of outings each pitcher had this year at given lengths. first the mets:

	up to 1 inn	1.1 to 1.2 inn	2.0 to 2.2 inn	3 inn or more
heilman	57	2	14	1
feliciano	50	8	5	1
mota	43	5	3	1
bradford	60	10	0	0
hernandez	64	3	1	0
wagner	65	2	3	0
TOTAL	339	30	26	3

and here's the same table for the cardinals:

	up to 1 inn	1.1 to 1.2 inn	2.0 to 2.2 inn	3 inn or more
thompson	20	14	9	0
wainwright	41	6	12	2
looper	51	5	13	0
kinney	14	2	5	0
johnson	49	4	2	0
flores	60	5	0	0
TOTAL	235	36	41	2

only one of the mets' short relievers, aaron heilman, had more than 5 outings that lasted at least 2 full innings. three of the cardinals' short men had 5 or more such outings, and a fourth (josh kinney) had 5 of them in less than a third of a season. per the charts above, 25 percent of the outings by stl short men lasted more than 1 inning, and 14 percent lasted 2 innings or more. the corresponding figures for the new york short men are just 15 percent and 7 percent.

if the bullpens are forced to stretch, the younger cardinal arms seem better equipped to the task. might confer a slight edge on the cards; might never come into play.

something to keep in mind when games 4 and 5 roll around.

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Comments

wow

i'm having a bad feeling about the series but i think we have a really good chance. On thing i'm noticing is that nobody is saying anything about even the worst pitcher becoming cy young against the cardinals.

by tnek5 on Oct 12, 2006 3:39 AM EDT reply actions

Don't worry

Keith Law over at some sports news network explains once again why the Cardinals suck and don't have a chance. (He said basically the same thing in the Padres series.)

The "big 5" over there all pick the Mets and a bonus one...Neyer is already writing columns about the Mets/Tigers WS.

Btw, its always fun to go back and read the "preview" after the series is over....

Keith Law says:
The Padres are a much better offensive team against right-handed starters, and the Cards don't have a lefty they can throw at San Diego. Look for a big series from Adrian Gonzalez, Brian Giles and Dave Roberts.

Expect the Padres to work the starter out of each game, then tee off on the Cards' relievers.

Don't you love it, they have the same guy do this Cardinal's series, .... and we get tidbits like this:

Keith Law writes:
"Edmonds' performances since returning have made it appear that he's not fully recovered from his concussion"

(Edmonds hit .308 against the Padres, one of the best pitching line-ups in baseball.)

"Right or wrong, teams are increasingly pitching around Pujols..."

(Pujols had 1 walk in the padres series..., zero intentional).

by redbird2006in on Oct 12, 2006 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

If I had a lot more time

and a masochistic desire to pursue fruitless crusades, I'd build a huge database of "expert" predictions by every baseball pundit and compare them to subsequent events. It's kind of fun to watch a group of people who take great care to use statistics carefully over a full season -- with ample warnings about sample size, etc. -- try to convince us that they can suddenly predict the outcome of less than one week's worth of games.

Granted, I have a lot of respect for people like Law, who as a group have made great contributions to understanding baseball, but I'd have more if they would just kick back in October and admit they have no idea what's going to happen, and just want to enjoy the games.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 12, 2006 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Someone's done it for politics

Media experts are more often wrong than one would be if guessing by chance.

http://www.newyorker.com/critics/books/articles/051205crbo_books1

I am confident the same goes for sports. However, betting lines have always been found to be unbiased predictors.

by enoscountry on Oct 12, 2006 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions

in partial defense

of these guys ---- privately, many of the pundits would probably acknowledge that their predictions of the outcome of a short series are not going to be any more or less accurate than anyone else's. they might acknowledge that nobody can really predict these things with much accuracy.

but they make the predictions because their employers require them --- and that's because people read predictions addictively. even the people on this site who are so derisive of the pundits' predictions still read them --- and seem to care about them.

i'll grant some of these guys (perhaps law, neyer, maybe others) seem to have the ego to believe they really are smarter than the rest of us. but i believe most of these guys are just doing their job and not taking their own predictions too seriously. accordingly, we should probably not take them too seriously either.

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Predictions

sell newspapers (or radio/TV programs, websites - choose your favorite media delivery channel). As lboros points out, it's part of their job.

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I thought about making

that very point in my post. I'm in the media business and know what it's like to HAVE to write something, even if there's nothing to say. (Gotta fill that space!) And I suspect that most of those sportwriters always doing new columns on the Yankees at ESPN, SI, etc., dearly wish they could aim their attention elsewhere.

Nonetheless, I still enjoy having a bash at the more arrogant and snarky of the sabermetric writers.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 12, 2006 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Larry

Just a thanks for the wonderful blog and fantastic posts and insights and interviews contained therein. I've been coming to this site for over a year and post infrequently; I wanted to offer my appreciation.

by mdarshan on Oct 12, 2006 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

thank you mdarshan

i appreciate that

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder if the same people who complain

about the experts being wrong, even email complements to those same experts when they are right?

The '06 Cardinals- The New '96 Cardinals? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 12, 2006 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

If you could have anticpated that

the cardinals bullpen would go scorless against the Padres, I wouldn't have believed you. If Tyler Johnson doesn't come up so huge against them, then it is a very different series. Remember how those guys closed out the regular season. That isn't that awful of a prediction. Could've easily played out that way.

Good thing it didn't, but still...

Anyway, on paper, the Mets are a better team. Any pundit that doesn't pick the Mets to win this series isn't doing his/her job.

by Valatan on Oct 12, 2006 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Punditry

Well, I'm not really a pundit, but I play one on VEB and I'm predicting the Cards in 6 if Carp moves into the 2/6 slot and Cards in 7 if he stays in the 3/7 slot. There's one "pundit" who isn't going with the Metros. ;-)

by punditmoi on Oct 12, 2006 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't post often

I've been reading this blog for about 6 months & every once in a while post a comment or two. I love this blog. Very smart, very informitive, everyone is very knowledgeable(sp?)was introduced to the Cardinals by my mom who grew up with Dizzy Dean & the rest of the Gas House Gang. I lived in St.Louis for 30 yrs & then moved out to CA. Big mistake. Anyway, want everyone to know that I'm rooting for the Cards. I'm done with the analysis. We will do what we do. And we will go to the World Series!!!!!

by busch bird on Oct 12, 2006 3:50 AM EDT reply actions

By the Way

If anyone is in the San Fernando Valley & wants to get together to watch games---let's get together. Here's to all the Cardinals fans in SoCA

by busch bird on Oct 12, 2006 4:06 AM EDT reply actions

Los Angeles Area

Where will you be watching games? I live in Moorpark, just west of Simi Valley- I'll probably be in a bar after work in Simi someplace but if there is a spot where Cardinals fans gather, I'd like to know.

The '06 Cardinals- The New '96 Cardinals? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 12, 2006 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Moorpark!..

Wow...My office is in Westlake Village, and I lived in Thousand Oaks for 10 years before moving back down to Sherman Oaks... Cardinal Nation in Calli..! GO CARDS

by Timbo02 on Oct 12, 2006 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Socal Cardinal Nation

Two years ago when the Cardinals faced the Dodgers in the NLDS, I saw more guys wearing the birds than wear the blue. I have to say that is one of the coolest things about being a Cardinal fan.

The '06 Cardinals- The New '96 Cardinals? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 12, 2006 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Bullpen

I have a feeling the bullpen will be huge in this series for both sides(Games 1,4, & 5 in particular) and I really wish the Cards would have broken that damn non-rule and added another RP (Narverson) for this series. Alas...

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 12, 2006 5:19 AM EDT reply actions

If they didn't...

have so much money invested in Looper, I bet they would have left him off. I mean, he's the fourth righthander in the bullpen and the Mets crush righties. Short of a Weaver/Reyes implosion, I don't know if we'll even see him.

by guayzimi on Oct 12, 2006 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Wainright BS

If Wainright falls apart and we need someone to finish the top of the 9th at home or if we go to extra innings after a blown save, Looper's probably the guy.

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Watch your mouth

Wainy fall apart, I won't hear that kind of talk.

by Just Rope Ball on Oct 12, 2006 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

sorry about that

I was just trying to think of where Looper might be used other than a blowout. We'll keep that under wraps from here on out.....

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

That's right,

Scarlet will kick your ass for dissin' her man.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 12, 2006 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah

i wonder if she ever found that 12-step program?

by bigcardsfan5 on Oct 12, 2006 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Looper will pitch...

... but likely not in NY unless the team runs out of everybody else or is way up.

he'll pitch in StL, tho. he'll have to: no off days means everybody gets used.

by kindred on Oct 12, 2006 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

if any cards fans in nyc

and wanna watch the game at a bar let me know, ill be the guy in a cardinals hat getting my ass kicked by all of the mets fans at the bar...

by MarcGldstn on Oct 12, 2006 9:18 AM EDT reply actions

Pitching Depth

I'd argue that at least for this series, we DO have the pitching depth advantage to exploit. The Met's Amazingavenue.com breaks down the match-up, and assuming Carp goes in game 2, we have the advantage in every pitching match-up except for game 1. Since the Mets relied on their bullpen so much (pitching almost as much as the starters), this is also to our advantage. Of course, we are all making the assumption that every Carp start is a win...

by jimstllax on Oct 12, 2006 9:31 AM EDT reply actions

Bullpen

We're also assuming that our rookie bullpen keeps up a 4-game trend, while the Mets have a season-long established bullpen that's pretty tough. I'm not saying our guys don't keep it up, but the Mets lineup is much tougher than San Diego and we're going to have to be sharp to avoid blowout losses (like the Dodgers).

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes

This is true, though I'm hoping their lack of pitching depth throws their bullpen out of what a bit (and of course, viewing everything optimistically).

by jimstllax on Oct 12, 2006 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions

No doubt

Their bullpen will be heavily used, which could work to our advantage. Hopefully our bats will show up and wear those guys out!

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

we pretty much have to

assume that the cards win both carp starts. seems extremely unlikely that the cardinals can win the series if they don't.

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Hopefully

the fact that the Mets will have Maine and Trachsel going in games 2 and 3 may put further strain on the pen. These 2 combined for about 8 IP in the division series and the pen pitched a great deal in their starts. Randolph may be forced to either use his 2 starters longer than he would like (an advantage for us, probably) or risk overexposing and/or wearing out key members of the pen in games 4 and 5. Their pen could pitch a lot of innings in games 2 through 5. Hopefully, this gives us a better chance against their very good bullpen.

by chuckb on Oct 12, 2006 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

The real danger of Trachsel

is the likelihood that his endless delays between pitches will put half the crowd to sleep and depress concession revenue.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 12, 2006 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Hello again

First off, nice job with all the stats and trends, etc.

Second, I have a few comments about your points - not to refute your assumptions or arugments but again, just to present the "other" view that I know I would enjoy reading ... obviously that is why I am here.

You are correct when you say that the Cards bullpen is younger and may be able to eat the innings more, but the METS bullpen is so much better than the Cards that I still don't think it matters much. What I'm saying is that a tired Wagner or Mota is still better than a fresh Wainwright (now I know he's been solid) or Looper. Wagner has even said he loves getting the ball often b/c it helps with his control. If the Wainwright (but also - I don't see him going more than one anymore since he's the closer - so his stats above are basically N/A) thing is debatable, I understand ... but go down the line. Who's our sixth best reliever? Bradford? Hernandez? If we have to use him b/c of Bullpen fatigue, the Mets are fine with that. If you guys have to use Looper a lot or a guy like Thompson, now you're rolling the dice.
Someone mentioned that the Mets only have a pitching adv. in Game 1 when the same matchup is in game 5. Now I understand it sucks for the Mets b/c our best pitcher is going on short rest and yours will not, but in that game, you still have to like Glavine against Weaver (with a stronger bullpen behind him) don't you? No one is that good on three days' rest but I trust a Hall of Famer to be ready much more than the Dreamweaver.
I think I've said it before, and perhaps he will choke under the pressure a la your current injured minor league wild-pitch-throwing Outfielder, but John Maine is A LOT better than anyone here or in the STL papers is giving him credit for. Now, am I dense enough to think he has a favorable matchup against either Carpenter or Suppan? No ... but I will tell you the Mets win one of those games. Carpenter is very good. He's worlds better than anyone on the Mets staff. But he's not Koufax, Pedro (in 99) or Orel Hershisher in 88 good. His ERA is 3.09 for cyring out loud ... in a bad National League. He can be beaten. Will he? Who knows? I hope. But I can tell you that he's not a guaranteed 2-0 in this series. To say that completely disgraces the best offense in the National League.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

Re #1

I am more than comfortable with Brad Thompson being in any position.

And now that I have jinxed him, I will shut up.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 12, 2006 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions

As you should be ..

... because he's not bad, I was just making a point. If you line up the pens, closer v. closer, lefty specialist v. left specialst, setup v. setup ... I'll take the Mets guy every time. If you do that, you end up with mismatches like Mota v. Thompson or Hancock (is he on the roster?) and Bradford v. Kinney, not to mention Wagner v. Wainwright (VERY talented, but I'd still take the vet), etc.

I'm not sure (or at least I hope not) that with 7 guys in the bullpen - and the season on the line - that fatigue will be a factor. Familiarity? That's more likely.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

your points are well taken

without question, the met bullpen is superior to the cardinals' --- at least, it's got the better track record, and we should expect it to give new york a big advantage in the series.

but we thought the same thing heading into the san diego series, and the cards' youngsters stepped up. la russa managed them intelligently and unerringly, which is not always the case. it was only 4 games, and the padres don't have the bats that the mets do; we'll have to see if the pen can repeat its success in this series.

but my point isn't that the cardinal bullpen is better -- i'm just fishing around for anything that might mitigate the mets' advantage. and i'm postulating (hopefully) that the loss of the off day might change the dynamic in some small way and balance out the scales just a bit. it might only become pertinent for an inning or two in game 4 or 5, when the bullpens are tired; or it might not manifest at all.

the cardinal bullpen is a huge wild card in this series, because it was so terrible the last week in september and so untouchable in the nlds. how the hell will they pitch this week?

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely

it very well may help the Cards...

... but you can also see it helping the Mets, ie both starting rotations are flawed - it will be a series determined by lineups and bullpens and the one less day off rewards the deeper pen.

Which one will occur? No one knows.

There's always two sides to every story, and that's why I hate waiting for this series to begin. Let's play some games for crying out loud!

And as I said before, lboros, great job with the blog. I am quite impressed.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks nails

and thanks for representing the met side with good insights and in a spirit of friendly rivalry --- that has made our discussions around here more interesting the last couple of days. stick around once the games get underway

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions

good points nails.

Thanks for your contribution here; good insights and arguements for the Mets pen, etc. I too am tired of waiting for this to start, I just want it to start, and then let the fun begin. I see either tightly contested games or Mets blowouts. I hope for the former, both for the Cardinals sake and for the sake of exiting October baseball. I ended up with Jose Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado on my fantasy team this year so I became a bit of a Mets fan since as those four went, so went my team. The Mets are damn good on paper, but this "paper" we always speak of has been worthless before...let the games begin.

by mdarshan on Oct 12, 2006 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

On Maine

We had a good time against him before. If it wasn't for Izzy.

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/wrap.jsp?ymd=20060822&content_id=1623326&vk ey=wrapup2005&fext=.jsp&team=away

by enoscountry on Oct 12, 2006 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions

If by we

you mean Pujols, then yes. However, he won't get anything to hit this time around.

Also - that was by far, Maine's worst start of the season. Now you could say "the Cardinals have his number" and you would be entirely justified. But I think his numbers from the season as a whole - including shutting the huge Phillies offense down three starts out of four consecutive I think - there's a lot of talent there. Like I said, you very well could destroy him b/c he's young and maybe will be frazzled. But I think pitching at home in a bigger ballpark (homers have been his demise) with the crowd behind him ... all I'm saying is don't pass him off like he's nothing. Mets fans easily see him as better than Trax (whom we all hate with fiery passion) ... and honestly, I'm only a little more confident in Glavine (which is really a comment about both of them).

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

We had a young pitcher once

who we thought was pretty special too. He pitched in the 2000 NLCS. You might remember him.

by stlmapman on Oct 12, 2006 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I know ... I referred to him above as the wildpitchthrowingoutfielder that you guys have. But that is a once in a lifetime type of meltdown. and Maine wasn't lightsout, but he was closer to good than he was to Ankiel in game 1 of the NLDS (certainly helped by your boy Drew in that one though).

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Maine

Should've been tagged for at least 3-4 runs in the 4.1 innings he pitched in LA. Kent ran through the stop sign, let alone Drew. Cardinals aren't going to make that mistake with a slow runner---and then Drew. That's two outs and two runners he didn't deserve to have knocked out. Put him in that situation: getting absolutely ripped already, bases loaded no out (against Marlin Anderson who doubled down the line) and see how that game plays out.

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Oct 12, 2006 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Man

I understand that ... didn't you see where I referenced that in my own post. All I'm saying is that he is better than you think.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

No doubt

Maine is a big league pitcher and could come up with a big game, and Carpenter is human - he could have a bad start and you guys could steal one. If you beat Carp in his first start, it's tough to see this series lasting very long.

On paper, the Mets win. But I think lboros points out that a Mets victory isn't assured, and there are some logical arguments for the Cards performing better than "the experts" expect. No doubt the starting rotation is the Mets weak point. The Cards best chance for victory is exploiting that and hoping their pitching holds together against a very strong Met offense.

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

what do you mean pujols

won't get anything to hit. he always gets something to hit. unless you intentionally walk him everytime (i would, but the mets won't), he'll get a pitch to hit. he covers the plate too well. the unintentional intentional thing is just dumb; they get to 3-0 and then feel like they need to throw a strike. maybe albert misses, but he doesn't miss much. i think pujols will single handedly win one of these games (and probably two).

--my worst fear is that someone will just intentionally walk him everytime, but they never do. i don't know why, but they never do. i think i might walk him with the bases loaded (as long as it didn't bring in the tying or go-ahead run)just to avoid the boost he gives us. pujols hitting an rbi single does more for this club than anybody else (save maybe edmonds) hitting a homerun. it's insane.

and the mets will pitch to him, just you wait.

by brock on Oct 12, 2006 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Tired Mota better than Wainwright?

Hahaha. Hahahahaha. Wagner = Yes, but not Mota. Mota has been good for you guys, but he is still a gas can waiting to happen. I would take Wainwright over Mota any day of the week.

Bengie Molina for 2007 Cardinals Catcher!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I guess that was a bit extreme ... I don't think I meant to include Mota in there ... but either way, I would be somewhat concerned with my closer being a rookie. I know he's had A GREAT rookie season, and seems to really have found his niche, just remember that the teams he was facing the last month were the Pirates, the Padres, the Astros, the Brewers (minus Carlos Lee, Ricky Weeks, etc), the Giants, and the Nationals. He certainly has been a stud ... but I do think there's a small part of me that would rather have Mota for his experience.

Now a tired Mota? That was crazy talk, I admit.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

True

but lets not forget that rookie closers aren't always a bad thing in the postseason. KRod for the Angels and Jenks for the ChiSox, both came up big for their teams as rookies.

Obviously, if given the choice i'd much rather have a HEALTHY Jason Isringhausen, but that's not going to happen.

Bengie Molina for 2007 Cardinals Catcher!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

very good point

i had forgotten about Jenks.

To be fair, though I believe KRod was a setup man for Percival the year they won.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

You are right...

but KRod still came up big in the clutch as a rookie. I'm not saying AW is the next KRod, i'm just pretty confident in his ability to shut people down.

Hooray Beer!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

rookie closers

don't forget Papelbon

by nota bene on Oct 12, 2006 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

and nails, you gotta admit

that when it comes to your rookie pitcher --- ie, maine --- you act as if his being a rookie is no problem. you know he has pitched well and come up big in big games.

we feel the same way about our rookies -- we have gained confidence in them and don't view their inexperience as a meaningful liability.

well, at least where wainwright is concerned.

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't even

think of someone who has been with the team all year, like Wainwright, as a rookie anymore.

by Toddius396 on Oct 12, 2006 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

A very good point...

... and obviously I'm biased. But isn't there a difference between starting games 2 and 6 - games your are supposed to lose against the "maybe" 2 time cy young winner - and trying to close out 4 wins in the NLCS? I think Adam has the tougher task.

but your point is dead on. I guess I'm writing with my heart a little bit too. :)

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Just Wait

Wainwright has one of the best curveballs in the leagues. It is completly devasting and unhitable. You will have a new respect for him after you watch him drop a 12 to 6 while the Mets hitters knees do a 12 to 6.

by DimitroffVodka on Oct 12, 2006 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

There

is no such thing as an unhittable curveball, especially one that starts off like the Wainers does. Any MLB-calibar hitter could step into the box looking only for curves and tee off on him. The key to his continued success will be mixing in his fastball (which is sneaky fast) and keeping the hitters honest.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 12, 2006 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

which is why it's cool

that he's closing....he throws that fastball a lot harder than he used to when they were grooming him to start and using him in long relief situations.

If I'm not mistaken AW is a two-pitch pitcher at this point in his career, if he can get a change or a slider....whew.

by nota bene on Oct 12, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Best offense in NL?

Mets were 3rd in runs scored (Cards 6th) and 4th in OPS (Cards 6th). No doubt that 1-5 is strong and the bats showed up against the Dodgers, but there are valid arguments against their being the best offense in the NL.

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely the best

look at their road numbers which makes up for their home games being played in the 2nd or 3rd best pitchers park in the NL (Dodgers and Nats) and it always has been. If the #s don't add up this year, one reason is b/c of the Mets offense.

On Road in 06

Mets - #1 in Runs, #1 in SLUG, #1 in OPS, #2 in avg, tied for #2 in homers, tied for #2 in steals.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Gotta agree..

Mets were definintely the best offense in the NL this year.

Hooray Beer!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

That means that they are a good road team

I would like to see true park-adjusted stats to confirm that. I am not saying they aren't a good offensive team - they obviously are. It's just that there are some numbers out there that question their being unquestionably the best offense in the NL.

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Please

present some of these numbers. I'm not sure why park adjusted numbers really matters. Remove the home parks and compare teams. The average of the 15 road parks should be enough.

Also, to add to my road stats - more than you have presented ... the Mets led the NL in first inning runs.

the key to the series is the Mets #7. Forget about bullpens or days off. If the Cardinals are going to win, you guys have to keep Reyes off base.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

some numbers

TEAM    G   AB    R    H    2B   3B  HR   TB    RBI   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS

Padres  81  2878  416  804  180  16  86  1274  397  .279  .346  .443  .789

NY Mets 81  2850  439  776  166  22  104 1298  417  .272  .339  .455  .794

by dontEATnachos on Oct 12, 2006 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

btw

Those are just the away numbers

by dontEATnachos on Oct 12, 2006 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Right ...

the mets have 23 more runs, a higher OPS, 18 more homers ...

are you trying to solidify my point or is this supposed to refute my claims? I'm not sure.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just providing info

I don't really have a position either way.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 12, 2006 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

You have to admit

the Mets have the better set of stats, but aside from the HR margin, those two sets of numbers are very close to each other. They are also skewed by the unbalanced schedlue, as the Padres play away games in Dodger Stadium and SafeCo (but also Coors and Bank One) more often than the Mets (but they get the benefit of playing in Florida and RFK as well), who need to play in some pretty pitcher friendly parks in the NL East.

All of that being said, i still think that the Mets have a better offense than the Padres, but it isn't as wildly out of whack as some would think.

by Valatan on Oct 12, 2006 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree about Reyes...

while it is important to keep him off base. The Cardinals are one of the few teams that have an actual neutralizer behind the plate. Reyes's speed vs Molina's arm will be fun to watch.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

re reyes

i don't mind if he steals a few bases. that's a one-run strategy, and as long as the cards can keep it at 1 run and stay out of big innings i think they're going to be alright. they're not facing clemens/oswalt, where you might lose 2-1 or 3-2 and every run yielded is crucial. the cards have a chance to put up some runs in this series, just as the dodgers did vs the mets in the nlds.

if the cards can hold the mets to 3-4 runs an outing, they could put themselves into position for an upset. so reyes swiping a run doesn't bother me

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not just talking about SBs though...

when Reyes gets on base, the Mets win. When he doesn't they don't.

I'm talking about scoring from first on a Lo Duca double, tagging and taking third on a fly into center ... distracting the pithcer ... hit and runs ... the whole thing.

I know Beltran will finish third or fourth, way ahead of Reyes, in MVP voting ... but if you ask any Mets fan who our MVP is, 90% say Jose.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

i can understand

the thought about reyes as mvp. he's a great, great player; i can understand why you guys love him, because he makes the game exciting.

he does have that ability to disrupt a game and drive a pitcher crazy --- but i'm saying the stl pitchers should not let themselves be distracted. don't expend a lot of energy on the guy if he gets on; let him steal a base. i hope our pitchers focus their energy on the men at the plate and not on reyes; i hope they concentrate on holding the rally he sparks to a 1-run rally, and have confidence that the stl bats will get the run back against ny's depleted staff.

that's how you neutralize the guy, imho.

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Guess Who

Guess who was #1 in Road Average, #1 in OBP, and #3 in Slugging.... The Padres. .279/.346/.443

So to say the Padres were not a good hitting team completly discounts them when they were actually a very good team on the road.

The Cardinals shut down a good hitting team.

by DimitroffVodka on Oct 12, 2006 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it's reasonable

to concede the best-offense-in-NL thing to the Mets. I am having nightmares about Beltran....remember how well he hit Cardinal pitching in f!@#$ing Houston.

by nota bene on Oct 12, 2006 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

game in Brooklyn

I posted this on Valatan's game watching thread, but to the NYC fan I'll be tending bar in Brooklyn on Saturday @ Bar Minnow. There will be Mets fans, but they'll be mellow and I'll buy you a beer.

by geronimopena on Oct 12, 2006 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

nice screenname

you have potential but will never hit over .220 or so. Ah, the dark days of Cardinal second sackers...

by mdarshan on Oct 12, 2006 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you

My fearsome five-tool arsenal will be the cornerstone of the early 90's Cardinal juggernaut.

Or maybe all my bones will just, you know, snap and wither away one by one along with my hopes and dreams.

by geronimopena on Oct 12, 2006 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

sounds good

im in the village but ill def try to get down there, thanks for the offer bud

by MarcGldstn on Oct 12, 2006 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Simply put..

there are no guarantees here. Glavine could blow up and Weaver could throw a no-hitter; Carp could pull a Marquis and allow 13 runs and Maine/Perez could completely shut the Cards down. Will these things happen? Not likely, but there's always that chance. That's why they play the games...

by cardsrul on Oct 12, 2006 10:26 AM EDT reply actions

Amen.

Bengie Molina for 2007 Cardinals Catcher!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think

#III or #IV would like your hooray beer.... how about "I'm just here for the Bud Light" ?

We are the Cardinals, the Mighty Mighty Cardinals!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 12, 2006 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Haha...

III is retiring in a couple months anyways. Hooray Beer is just me being a fan of beer, much like the "Here's to Beer AD campaign" Haha

Hooray Beer!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Changed to something much more suitable.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

MeToo

coors sucks

by OKCardsfan on Oct 12, 2006 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Would be nice if we could just get this series

going already. It's almost like they've been eliminated already with this long delay.

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 12, 2006 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

it is funny

that the tigers are already halfway to the world series, and the NL's still sitting round.

by brock on Oct 12, 2006 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

If the Birds pull of the upset,

Maybe the AL team will have lost some of its momentum, due to inactivity.

by fuegophil on Oct 12, 2006 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

off. off. off. off.

Ok, that's better.

by fuegophil on Oct 12, 2006 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

NY weather

Just took a loot at the weather channel and there's only a 20% chance of rain tonight. Looks like good baseball weather - clear and +/- 60F.

Tomorrow there's a 20% chance of rain at 4:00 pm rising to 30% at 7:00 pm, dropping lower later in the evening.

Looks like they will get both of these in.

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

they'll play

even if the weather's terrible, yes? how bad do you think it would have to be for them to cancel again? i couldn't take that.

hey, what happens to the schedule if another game gets postponed?

just sitting here wasting time you know

by brock on Oct 12, 2006 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

yesterday

i felt like we were going to dominate (and these feelings have been spot on through the postseason). now, i feel unsure (in fact, i feel like we're going to lose).

tell me i'm crazy.

by brock on Oct 12, 2006 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

hmmm

10...10...10

weird.

by brock on Oct 12, 2006 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Dude.

You're crazy.

by liam on Oct 12, 2006 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Mets/Cards

My gut says this may be a rough series, my heart says I hope the cards go out and win this series...I think Game one is a key not sure if it was mentioned, but if Weava can give the cards a dream start with his trusty head snappa and mullet, I think it will set the tone...

If weava has a Marquis esque start i think it will suck the wind right out of the sales..

by punchinjudy on Oct 12, 2006 11:24 AM EDT reply actions

What is taking Tony So Long

Why isn't Tony going to slot Carpenter in the game 2 start? We all a couple days ago were hoping for a rain out just for this to happen. Bernie said they are going to do the Plus and Minuses of Carpenter going in Game 2 vs Game 3.

So I am going to do my own.

Plus:

Allows Carpenter to pitch earlier in the Series, Game 2 and 6 on normal rest.
Allows Carpenter to match up to the better pitcher between Maine and Trachsael, Maine
Suppan pitchs much better at home than away
Gives us a much better chance to at least go home 1-1 and legitmate shot to go back up 2-0

Minuses:

Carpenter is a much better pitcher at home than away
Tony doesn't like to mess with the Rotation

Thats all I can think of.

Here are their splits

Carpenter Home: .214/.257/.295/.552 with 1.81 ERA
Carpenter Away: .260/.307/.448/.754 with 4.70 ERA

Suppan Home: .248/.309/.393/.702 with 3.18 ERA
Suppan Away: .313/.384/.500/.884 with 5.36 ERA

Please chime in guys

by DimitroffVodka on Oct 12, 2006 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

i say pitch Carp...

... but i've got a feeling that TLR has made his mind up. i'll bet he pitches Carp in Game 2 if the Cards lose tonight but pitches Soup if they win. if they win, he'll gamble that Soup can maybe beat Trachsel and go for the jugular in Game 3 with Carp at home. if they lose, he HAS to throw Carp in Game 2, because he doesn't want to come home already down two games.

personally, i'd rather see Carp tomorrow no matter what happens tonight, but i understand if TLR is holding out to see what happens tonight.

by kindred on Oct 12, 2006 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Yesterday was surreal

I was in NY - flew home last night.

I was in the same hotel as Joe Buck, McCarver and Luis Gonzalez (Hotel Benjamin at 50th and Lexington); saw them coming in as I was getting in the car to head to airport.

I had to resist the urge to ask Joe Buck to touch his throat as he said "Swing and a miss". He probably wouldn't have appreciated it much...

At JFK for a 3:50 flight from NYC to SF. In the bar watching CNN describe a plane flying into a building in NYC - then they announce our turn to board. To say I was scared was an understatement. When we boarded, I had no idea what kind of plane or that Cory Lidle was involved. Only found out when I landed.

Anyway I'll be back in NYC on Sunday night and then Monday - watching the games at Dewey's Flatiron (the NYCredbirds yahoo group saud this is a Cards friendly bar). Then flying back home to SF Wednesday night.

I planned my travel poorly around this series...

by BozCardsFanSF on Oct 12, 2006 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

his voice is like

velvet and peanut butter

by punchinjudy on Oct 12, 2006 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Why not Suppan in Game One?

He would be throwing today, anyway. He is more consistently good than Weaver is, and would match up better agaisnt Glavine.

by Valatan on Oct 12, 2006 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

I think
Suppan
Carp
Weaver
Reyes
Suppan
Carp
then Game 7, everyone and the kitchen sink. Start with Weaver with a super tight leash...

by BozCardsFanSF on Oct 12, 2006 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

it hasn't been stated this way

but i think the answer is that suppan's arm doesn't bounce back well enough for him to pitch on short rest in game 5. supps is a command/control guy, and if his arm's just a little out of whack and he misses his spots by six inches . . . . wham.

weaver has better stuff and a better arm than supps -- has exceeded 220 innings 3 times in his career, including each of the last 2. but this year, because of the DFA, he has thrown fewer innings this season than supps.

if one of'm has to go on short rest, i'd rather have it be weaver.

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Weaver

Weaver is much better pitcher on the road than Suppan.

by DimitroffVodka on Oct 12, 2006 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Supps tonight

I agree - Suppan tonight with a better road record/ERA and Carp in game 2. While extended rest, Weaver has a better home record and saving him for game 3 might make sense.

by jomfa on Oct 12, 2006 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

You are confused

Suppan is the one better at home and Weaver is the one better on the road.

I posted Suppan's split right above this post.

by DimitroffVodka on Oct 12, 2006 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

why not suppan in game 1?

because he is awful on the road.

by Irishman on Oct 12, 2006 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

suppan is pretty much awful in general

he's a fine regular season pitcher, but weaver is much better suited for the playoffs

by jojo5492 on Oct 12, 2006 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Their postseason ERAs and records

would contradict you on that

by Valatan on Oct 12, 2006 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

i'm not denying that

but suppan at his best will give you 6 or 7 ip allowing probably like 3 runs agains that mets. thats fine but when the cardinals have a very small window of possibility in which they can beat the mets, i'd rather roll the dice on weaver who's stuff is good enough to through 5 or 6 shutout inning versus the mets

by jojo5492 on Oct 12, 2006 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I just don't agree

Suppan is mentally tough, and I've never seen him rattled in a big game. Weaver's all over the place. Give me the guy that won't throw the game away.

Not to mention that game seven that he threw in 2004 against a then-potent Astros lineup.

by Valatan on Oct 12, 2006 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

not quite sure why

that one game means that suppan is suddenly a great playoff pitcher. had roger clemens not been too stubborn to throw pujols or rolen an offspeed pitch the cards would have lost that game

by jojo5492 on Oct 12, 2006 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

It doesn't

One game doesn't make Suppan a better playoff pitcher - all of his games combined do. He has a career 3.82 playoff ERA over 6 starts, 33 innings (including his start last week.) Of those 6 starts, he's had 2 bad ones - the one on Saturday, and his World Series start in 2004. Every other start has been solid.

Weaver has 13.1 career playoff innings, 2 starts. 6.08 ERA. And that's after 5 shutout innings last week to bring his ERA down...

by Robb on Oct 12, 2006 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

suppan is just too easy to figure out

all teams have to do is take about 4 or 5 pitches in an at bat while suppan tries to nibble at the corners. don't swing at balls. then eventaully he has to through a strike and his fastbell is straight and lifeless and then he gets killed. just watch what the red sox did to him in the world series or what san diego did to him. he's just not that good if the other teams hit well

by jojo5492 on Oct 12, 2006 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

*throw a strike

by jojo5492 on Oct 12, 2006 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Bad logic...

by your logic, Greg Maddux sucked, Tom Glavine sucked, etc...They didn't have any sort of fastball, they made their careers off being smart and hitting corners. Suppan is not a power pitcher, he is a lesser mans greg maddux. He is as smart as they come and knows how to place pitches. Obviously, he isn't as good as Maddux (in his prime) because Suppan will get beat every once in awhile.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 12, 2006 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

watch maddux's fastball

and then watch suppan's fastball. maddux's fastball has serious movement and is much better than suppan's. i'm not saying suppan is a bad pitcher. he's just not the guy you want starting games 1 or 2 in a playoff series against a really good offense.

by jojo5492 on Oct 12, 2006 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Suppan-Madux comparisons

make me uncomfortable, since Maddux just gave up, what, four in the first against the Mets just last week...

by Nate811 on Oct 12, 2006 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Moving Carpenter to game 3 is obvious choice

"St. Louis manager Tony La Russa said last night he still was leaning toward Carpenter starting Game 3. But that would make La Russa either a liar or a fool." - Joel Sherman, New York Post writer, Oct. 12, 2006

The mathematical logic of moving the best pitcher to games 2 and 6, vs. games 3 and 7, is simple and clear. The chances of losing four games before that pitcher gets his second start are distinctly greater if you schedule him for game 7 rather than game 6. Other compelling reasons for Carpenter in games 2 and 6 have been articulated very well already in other posts. I won't repeat them here.

Tony La Russa bent over backwards in the last game of the regular season to give Carpenter a chance to start game 1 of the NLDS, rather than start a later game in that series, so Carp would be set up to pitch game 4, if needed, rather than game 5. Why in the world would he have to think for more than 30 seconds to see the wisdom of moving Carpenter from game 3 to game 2 now?

The only imaginable explanation would be that he's swayed by the possibility that Carpenter might not have to pitch a second game in this series because the Cards could win it in 6 games with Chris pitching only once. (The supposed advantage of Carpenter pitching at Busch III vs. Flushing is offset by the fact that the alternative starter in game 2, Suppan, has also been much more effective at Busch III.) Thus Carp could skip game 7 and start game 1 of the World Series.

If Tony is even thinking of rolling the dice on that chance, it would raise serious questions about his judgment. And if the Cardinals lost in six games while Carpenter sat on the bench in the deciding sixth game, La Russa's utterly foolish decision would be a blemish forever on his truly illustrious record....

by CardsWin on Oct 12, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions

Shifting Carpenter to game TWO, I meant to say!

More from Joel Sherman, New York Post columnist:

Winning a game at Shea is a near must for the underdog Cardinals. Now, La Russa can have the defending Cy Young winner face Maine in Game 2 and still have him on full rest in Game 6, likely against Maine again. St. Louis probably needs to win Carpenter's two starts to take this series.

Can it win two others? Behind Carpenter, the Cards' starting pitching is not a pretty picture, either, and their bullpen is far inferior to the Mets'. But if Carpenter can win Game 2 at Shea, St. Louis can dream a more positive dream about winning two of three back home with the Mets starting Steve Trachsel, Perez and Glavine on short rest.

Thus, it rained a little on the Mets' parade yesterday.

by CardsWin on Oct 12, 2006 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Tautological

"Winning a game at Shea is a near must for the underdog Cardinals."

A near must? We play three games at home and need four wins for a WS berth.

I suspect the chucklehead meant we need to split the first leg of the NLCS. I hope that's what he meant.

by liam on Oct 12, 2006 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Superstitions

Anybody have any interesting superstitions they observe when the Cardinals win? I personally have a pair of red boxers that I wear under brown slacks with an '85 NL Championship T-shirt when I watch playoff games on TV. I also have a beard going that wasn't inteded to be a playoff beard but now I may keep it if the Cards keep rolling. Not that this stuff has any bearing on the team's performance but it's fun and I'm sure a lot of us do these things. I also tend to sit in the same position while watching the game if there is a rally in progress or a pitcher is mowing em down.

by mdarshan on Oct 12, 2006 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

TMI!

Dammit!

by sdrone on Oct 12, 2006 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

DMY

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 12, 2006 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah dude

I've been blogging about my superstitions, namely my beard. Myplayoffbeard.com.

If you haven't checked it out in a while, stop back by. I've added 3-4 posts a day.

by effin fisk on Oct 12, 2006 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

playoff beard...

... mine is getting pretty impressive (way better than yours, Fisk).

problem? i become a godfather on Sunday, and i'm thinking that the parents might prefer me to be clean-shaved.

i'm torn.

by kindred on Oct 12, 2006 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

prove it

Yeah, I definately never claimed that my beard is superior. In fact, it's probably one of the weaker ones around, at this point. But I maintain that it isn't the length of the hair on your chin that gives the beard it's power, but the loyalty of the fan who grows it.

Do we all have to start calling you the Godfather now? Because I'm not kissing your ring if you shave...

by effin fisk on Oct 12, 2006 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

My Playoff Beard

My Beard is pretty pathetic since I am 24 and still barely have to shave. I do have a mustache meets goatee thing going on. I had to shave my neck though since the itching was driving me like crazy.

I am starting to look rather hoboish. My boss tried to force me to shave but I went to his boss to override him. He is a much loyaler Cardinal fan and understood.

Now I hope they understand when I come to work with Red Hair.

by DimitroffVodka on Oct 12, 2006 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Another thing...

Is anyone suprised the Mets don't move John Maine up to game 1? It makes the game 1 matchup in their favor, while putting Glavine against Carpenter twice. Then, Maine is the one that starts on short rest, which his young arm is better able to handle than Glavine, and it makes the must-win games two and six all that much harder for the Cardinals to win.

It seems to me that, now, the Mets are much better off with Maine and then Glavine than the other way around.

by Valatan on Oct 12, 2006 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

i agree with you valatan

i also think maine, with the younger arm, is probably a better choice to come back on short rest for game 5. if i were willie randolph, that's how i would play it

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Me, too

I thought of this as well and it seemed to make sense. The only logic is that Randolph wants the vet in game 1 rather than the rookie in game 1. That has to be the overriding factor here.

by chuckb on Oct 12, 2006 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Not so sure...

...game one is impt. Sets the tone. Weaver-Glavine is quite lopsided and the Mets can expect to get off on the right fott.

by cardsfaninmass on Oct 12, 2006 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I would keep Glavine in

game 1 but then may not pitch him on short rest in game 5. The Mets could start Darren Oliver in game 5 if the series is tied or if they are ahead. We will have Weaver going on short rest so that game will likely be the battle of the bullpens. Then Glavine would be ready to face Carpenter at home for what could be the deciding game in the series. In this scenario, the Mets would keep the advantage in game 1, be equal in game 5, and then a relative toss-up in game 6. I think Carpenter is better than Glavine but it's a little more even given the matchup with the Cardinals against left-handers and Carp on the road.

by lefty fan on Oct 12, 2006 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

why not Game 2?

i was thinking that Maine should start Game 2. he's a better pitcher than Trachsel.

by kindred on Oct 12, 2006 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Weather

Anybody have any idea what the temp is going to be around game time in the NYC?

by sreese on Oct 12, 2006 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

another front is coming in

by Jocephus on Oct 12, 2006 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Classic!

by stlmapman on Oct 12, 2006 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

fof - lol

I really needed that!

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

that officially

rocks.

by nota bene on Oct 12, 2006 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Man, I'm glad I don't have to decide

Here's what I think TLR will do, and -- if it's perhaps not everyone's cup o' tea -- you have to admit its a close call and that's why he gets the big bucks.

I think TLR leaves Carp on Game 3. First, he's blinded by Carp's home/away splits. Second, he's afraid of coming home 0-2 having already fired the Carp bullet.

For my money, I believe Carp can pitch great anywhere - see, eg, Game 1 LDS which looked remarkably like a road game. I'm ok with a Soup/Reyes/Weaver homestand, but admit its not likely to strike fear in the Puppy Kickers' hearts.

But, all-in-all, you can't manage for Games 6 & 7 that may never be played. Maximize your chances in each of the first 4 games. That means Dream, SoupCan, Carp and Reyes. Then let the chips fall where they may.

Trust your gut, Tony. Stand pat.

PS: Anytime a NY Post write calls you a liar and a fool, you must be doing something right. "[Leaving rotation as is would make La Russa either a liar or a fool." - Joel Sherman, New York Post writer, Oct. 12, 2006

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Time to play....

I think we are all getting a bit too "pre-gamed" for this series because of the delay. Carp in game 2 or in 3?.. Rookies in the post season, Bullpen depth, will Albert see any pitches, Mets depth vs. Cards momentum....all very good and interesting talk, and I've enjoyed it. ....but it's time to play the game now and it can't come too soon for me. The Mets won more games than anyone in the NL this year. They are the favorites. The Cards took national media slaps for backing into the playoffs but then dispatched the Pad's in 4 games and had their pitching come around to levels not seen all season. They are still the underdogs.
As I said before, hell, I never really thought the Cards would get to this state anyway so in my view they have nothing to lose and everything to gain in this series. I LIKE that feeling. And I hope the team feels that too...just go out and play the damn game and lets see what happens now.
Look at the Tigers...they lost 119 games just two years ago...and are two wins from the series...The Cards can beat the Mets...the only question now is ...will they..? PLAY BALL!

by Timbo02 on Oct 12, 2006 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

I, of course,

want our boys to win this--in fact, I want them to crush, kill, and destroy. But as long as they play the hard 9 and put forth their best effort, I'll be okay with whatever happens. Remember, getting this far has been gravy in the first place. I'll deal fine with another LCS loss as long as they don't look like a team of stooges and give it away. Make 'em earn it, boys...and then beat the shite outta 'em anyway. GO CARDS!!

by rockin redbird on Oct 12, 2006 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

same here...

... even if the Cards lose in 5 games i'll be content, so long as the games are close and they don't piss 'em away (see: '04 Series).

by kindred on Oct 12, 2006 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

From the Big BM

"i think I said Mets in 5, maybe 6.

It doesn''t matter what I think.

I also have never understood why some apparently believe I should be a
cheerkeader and suspend all onjectivity when it comes to picking the
winner of a game or series.

Also, the pick was made before the Game 1 rainout.

If La Russa adjusts his rotation, Cardinals will be more viable -- but I
still have to go with my gut and say Mets win.

--B"

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

Who the heck is BM,

and what exactly is your fixation on the guy?

The '06 Cardinals- The New '96 Cardinals? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 12, 2006 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Bernie Miklasz

Columnist for the Post Dispatch, the St. Louis newspaper. A lot of the Cardinals fans read him. You'd like his stuff.

He's at the park now, and spends a lot of time with TLR and the team. Seems to get pretty good info from time-to-time. Not everybody agrees with him, but most everybody reads him.

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Bernie...

ya, i read him too. just couldn't figure out who you were talking about.

The '06 Cardinals- The New '96 Cardinals? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 12, 2006 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

BM is not

a good abreviation...from the big BM...hmm

by punchinjudy on Oct 12, 2006 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

whenever i read BM

i feel like having one

by Jocephus on Oct 12, 2006 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I sometimes

read him when I have a BM.

by Schnake on Oct 12, 2006 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Espn headline

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/mlb/index?lpos=globalnav&lid=gn_MLB_MLB

I hope that the cards can go down with aheck of a fight..the last thing i want is a Sweep..

If im Larussa Im showing, Rudy,Rocky(just not 5)reading David and Goliath..nething to pump the underdog story...statwise they are over matched, but we all knwo that anthing can happen.

"thats why they play the games"

by punchinjudy on Oct 12, 2006 2:56 PM EDT reply actions

This may already be posted

but tomorrow night's game is at 8 ET.

by Nails on Oct 12, 2006 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

cardinals theme song

that mets theme-rap is terrible

cards have nelly's song "batter up"

the video is all cardinals: http://www.mp3.com/tracks/2469938/dl_streams.html

The Cards at night, are big and bright, deep in the heart of Texas

by texbird on Oct 12, 2006 3:08 PM EDT reply actions

Let it loose!

Hey there! I really gotta say that this postseason has been a MUCH bigger joy already than others we have had.
Am I the only one thinking that they are finally playing to WIN and not just to avoid losing?
From now on, I think I am going to root for the 'Birds to win about 90 games and squeak into the playoffs. That way they won't play so uptight during the postseason.
In their defense, though, I really believe that NOBODY could have beat the Sox in '04.

On another subject, I have to toot my own horn a little bit. I called Rolen's shoulder injury about a week ago here in an anti-Larussa post I made. Hey, a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then. :)

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Oct 12, 2006 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

regulatory fit

you're right about the benefits of playing to win versus avoid losing. i'm a graduate student in psychology, and one thing my lab studies is the role of motivation on performance. apparently, people can be in an "promotion" focus, or a "prevention" focus. there are also two types of tasks: "approach" goal tasks and "avoidance" goal tasks. you're better off if the goal type matches your focus. playoff baseball seems to be an approach goal task--- you try to go out and achieve and win the series. the problem comes when the players get into an "avoidance" mindset-- this mismatch causes performance to suffer. it seems that the 2006 cards are in a "promotion focus"--- they've got nothing to lose, and they're striving for a goal (as opposed to past years when we were trying to "prevent" losing because we were expected to win). let's hope that the cards maintain this promotion focus so that they can reap the benefits of having a regulatory fit.

psychobabble off

The Cards at night, are big and bright, deep in the heart of Texas

by texbird on Oct 12, 2006 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

is this going to be on the test?

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

might be psychobabble

but it seems to describe perfectly what we've witnessed --- the cards have played "not to lose" in too many big series, going all the way back to their tilts vs the twins and royals in the 1980s.

i think they did the same thing, though, after going up 3 games to 1 vs the superior braves in 1996. entering the series they were underdogs, so they played with a "promotion" approach. once they took the 3-1 lead and were the presumed winner, they seemed to shift to a "prevention" approach --- ie, "c'mon, let's not blow this."

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Borowsky

Pls post the link to your GREAT essay on the 20th anniversary of Denkinger's call in the '85 WS. It describes perfectly the Cardinals' double-decade of "playing not to lose" as a lasting effect of the trauma of blowing that series. It should be required reading -- and it's the best thing I've ever read about the Cardinals -- ever.

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed

series situations, even game situations can occilate between approach and avoidance goal types. up 3 games to 1, it may be beneficial to mentally restructure the baseball game altogether by making the task suitable for prevention focus. in the lab, we do this with by making games that start with 100 points, and the subject tries not to lose all the of points... hmm

The Cards at night, are big and bright, deep in the heart of Texas

by texbird on Oct 12, 2006 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't be late!!!

The whole tale may be told in the first inning:

Cards score first: 55-26
Oppon score first: 28-52

Puppy Kickers led league in 1st inning runs scored, scoring 131 runs. This is by far their most productive inning.

Cards gave up 98 first inning runs. It is their 2d worst inning, only slightly better than the 3rd inning (104 runs).

On the other hand, the Cardinals most productive inning has been the 5th. Care to guess what inning the Muts gave up the most runs? Wrong. It's the 6th (103), but the 5th (102) isn't far behind.

So, HOLD 'em in the 1st, WHACK 'em in the 5th, and then let the pen HANG ON!

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 3:10 PM EDT reply actions

Marquis in the first inning

It seems like he had half of those 98.....

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm feeling good

about this series...at least better than what I felt like before last year's NLCS. I dyed my mohawk red for the postseason, and as soon as I dyed it, the Cards won game 4. It's a good sign.

Hey, I'm looking for anything at this point.

Invisible Gophers---2006 Tempe, AZ Slow Pitch Softball Champs!!!

by BigdJC on Oct 12, 2006 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

im feeling ok

if the team that played SD in the NLCS shows up, then i like our chances.

this won't be easy, but it's more than possible.

by Jocephus on Oct 12, 2006 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

Yup

It's as simple as that - the team that whipped SD can play well enough to take the NLCS.
Our starting pitching did well, our bullpen was untouchable, and our defense was slick. Our hitting, against a SD staff better than the injury-depleted Mets, was good enough.

So, let's play the game already....

by madridbend on Oct 12, 2006 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

It's possible

that the Mets won't go w/ Glavine on 3 days rest in game 5. They may come back w/ Darren Oliver and a bullpen game. We, I think, want Glavine starting that game for 3 reasons: he's been much less effective on 3 days rest than 4, he's been much better at Shea than on the road this year, and he wouldn't be available for game 6 in NY. They'd have to use Maine and Trachsel for 6 and 7.

This makes it imperative that we are able to get to their starters, particularly Maine, Trachsel, and Perez in games 2-4. This forces them to use their bullpen and, in turn, Glavine in game 5. If we allow their starters to go 6 or 7 innings, it may allow them the luxury of holding back Glavine. It would also mean that they're winning games, thus allowing them to hold back Glavine. So it's absolutely critical that we score early in the 1st 4 games.

by chuckb on Oct 12, 2006 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

lagenious

i have faith in thee

Milt Thompson

by Milt Thompson on Oct 12, 2006 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

I know I said it earlier...

...but I really can't talk about this game anymore. These next 4 hours are going to be murder.

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 12, 2006 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

Sunday seems like....

...months ago. I'm going through baseball withdrawal!!

by cardsfaninmass on Oct 12, 2006 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

you mean the gaem itself?

or waiting for the game? I hope they play well..

by punchinjudy on Oct 12, 2006 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Waiting for the game

It really does feel like we beat the Padres last season.

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 12, 2006 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Well,

we did...

by Nate811 on Oct 12, 2006 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

game winning RBI's

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_gwrbi1.shtml

anyone know of an 89-present..like to see how many Hombre has to this point

by punchinjudy on Oct 12, 2006 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

Springfield, MO VEB community

C'mon out to Big Whiskey's downtown on Park Central E. Get there early--half price apps and 2-for-1's till 7:O0!

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Oct 12, 2006 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

Umpire crew

Tim Welke, crew chief, Gary Darling, Jim Joyce, Jerry Layne, Jeff Kellogg and Fieldin Culbreth.

geeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzz, I wish the game would start

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

here's hoping the Mets confuse

Weaver for a lefty.

or Weaver confuses Weaver for a lefty.

and Weaver forgets who the hell delgado is.

otherwise i think this is gonna be an ugly game.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Oct 12, 2006 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

I'm off to Shea everyone...enjoy

Here's to a fun competitive series by 2 classy teams guys.

Cheers and good luck to you all.

I've enjoyed your site and your comments very much

by PondScumFan on Oct 12, 2006 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

have fun

good luck

choke on glass

(j/k)

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks mr PSfan

and come back during the series

by lboros on Oct 12, 2006 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Punditry

To revisit an earlier discussion in this thread... I just ran across this on espn.com
We've just started the LCS and nearly all of these Predictions are cold busted.

-to quote Orange Juice Jones

by _pistol_ on Oct 12, 2006 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Carp a go in game 2...

...per Bernie on 1380 just now.

by cardsfaninmass on Oct 12, 2006 5:08 PM EDT reply actions

giddyup!

carp in 2 and 6. reyes in 4. tony's finally come around!

by chuckb on Oct 12, 2006 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

IF he..

..didn't switch carp it would have been the epitome of tony over(or is it under)thinking the situation.

by cardsfaninmass on Oct 12, 2006 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

..............so you're saying there's a chance

Milt Thompson

by Milt Thompson on Oct 12, 2006 5:19 PM EDT reply actions

yeah tony! at a boy

Milt Thompson

by Milt Thompson on Oct 12, 2006 5:19 PM EDT reply actions

Slowest. Afternoon. Ever.

Ugh

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Oct 12, 2006 5:25 PM EDT reply actions

Friggin'

torture.

by rockin redbird on Oct 12, 2006 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Official site

as of 4:37 pm CST has carpenter starting game 2 AND game 3. I guess tony is done messing around this year and plans to sweep the mets.

by Schnake on Oct 12, 2006 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

LaRussa announed

Games 2-6 will be played in St. Louis b/c "it matches our splits better"

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 5:46 PM EDT reply actions

anybody willing to

spot the Muts 2 and start the gane in the top of the 2d? I would.

by ITouchedMcGee on Oct 12, 2006 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

live interviews on mlb.com

LaRussa just finished

Carp on now - he's ready to go tomorrow!

by wildman on Oct 12, 2006 5:54 PM EDT reply actions

This is crazy

This is a ton of comments for a pre-game thread...Think Cards fans are ready to get this show on the road?

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Oct 12, 2006 5:54 PM EDT reply actions

Lemmon!

Get back to work. Do you think you can slack off just because the bosses are in another time zone?

by effin fisk on Oct 12, 2006 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

posted this on traderumors already but...

if we could get ARod for Rolen straight up, or maybe for Rolen and, e.g., Tyler Johnson, would you take it?

I think I would, especially because we could move Eck to 2B and have ARod back at his comfy old SS. Resign Spezio or get whatever journeyman to play 3B.

Eck
Dunc
Pujols
ARod
Enc/OF
Enc/OF
Speez
Yadi

Not too shabby. And since the Rangers are still paying for some of ARod's salary, he's only $4M more expensive than Rolen next year anyway.

Probably wishful thinking, but if the Yanks really want to get rid of him this may be the best offer they get.

by nycbirdo on Oct 12, 2006 6:01 PM EDT reply actions

No way dude

everyone hates a-rod. he makes a for a terrible clubhouse. he's not a st. louis type player. bad thing to wish for.

Milt Thompson

by Milt Thompson on Oct 12, 2006 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

the hell with A-Rod

let's spend the money on a LH starter whose arm won't disintegrate.

by nota bene on Oct 12, 2006 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions

No!

our extra $$$$$ needs to go toward beefing up the pitching staff.

by chuckb on Oct 12, 2006 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

here's where I'm going with this

if you add the $4M difference between ARod and Rolen, I mean, that just isn't that much money if you're looking at a $95M payroll. Say you're going to have to give Spezio $1-2M to come back, and then an OF $5M, whether it's a new CF or a RF (moving Enc to CF). If Reyes and Wainright are both in the rotation next year - a big if, I know, considering how good Wainright has been in the bullpen and Izzy's health - that leaves enough cash for Jason Schmidt ($12M), resigning either Suppan or Weaver ($3-4M), and still leaves $3M to do something with the bullpen. All that and our current contractual obligations, by my calculations, would leave us at $95M. Doable.

by nycbirdo on Oct 12, 2006 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions