start spreading the news . . . . . .
before we get into this: it has been asked if VEB can be downloaded to a cellphone. the best answer i can give after various inquiries is that you can do it with a browser called Opera Mini, which is downloadable from this site. reader I Touched Mcgee was posting from busch III sunday night at the clincher via his cell; McGee, if you have any other advice about downloading to / posting from a cell, please clue the folks in.
alright, then: the mets.
in my nlds preview last week, i consulted voros mccracken's playoff crap-shoot matrix and a similar odds-making formula by baseball prospectus' james click; they estimated the cards' chances of winning the series at 40 to 45 percent, not terrible odds. but the two instruments are less sanguine about the possibility of a st louis upset over the mets --- likelihood's only about 1 in 3, per these formulae.
that forecast checks out with the empirical evidence. the cardinals won 14 fewer games than the mets this season, making this the 9th most lopsided matchup in lcs history (3d most lopsided if we consider the nlcs only). in the 8 matchups more lopsided than this one, the underdog won 2 times -- a 25 percent success rate. if we expand our sample size to include all lcs matchups with a spread of 10 wins or more, here's what we get:
| win differential |
underdog record |
|---|---|
| 20+ games | 1-3 |
| 15-19 games | 1-3 |
| 10-14 games | 3-8 |
| total | 5-14 |
common trait among the upset winners? four of the five had (duh) at least 2 dominant starters at the top of the rotation. (if you're keeping score at home, those four teams are the 2005 astros, 1987 twins, 1973 mets, and 2001 yankees.) if you ask me, a 1 in 4 shot at a world series berth is pretty good for an 83-win ballclub; those odds are about the same as the odds that juan encarnacion might get a basehit in a given at-bat. it's far from hopeless.
for the first time in recent memory, the cardinals have a real opportunity to win a series with their bats; no schmidts, schillings, or oswalts anywhere in sight. a couple of blitzkreig attacks against new york's feeble starters might set the kind of tone that can foster an upset. but the cards better score early, because the met bullpen is every bit the equal of the padres'; if the games are tight, new york will hold the edge. it went unnoticed, but st louis didn't score off the san diego pen until the final game, and both the runs were unearned. the cardinals' young relievers matched san diego's zero for zero, but i wouldn't bet on kinney johnson and wainwright pitching like aces forever. the mets have a tougher lineup, and the nlcs is a bigger stage; i hope the kids can keep posting 0s on the scoreboard, but i am not counting on it.
jeff suppan has a chance to make a name for himself in this series; a good start or two on this stage with the national media paying rapt attention, and he's like to drive up his asking price by $2m a year on the free-agent market. he's slated to pitch games 2 and 6 opposite new york rookie john maine, and those loom as pivotal matchups. on paper (for what little that's worth in a short series), the mets hold the advantage in games 1 and 5 (glavine vs weaver), and the cards hold it in 3 and 7 (carpenter vs trachsel); game 4 (perez vs marquis/reyes) is a tossup. maine and suppan appear to be pretty evenly matched; let's take a closer look:
| w-l | era | avg | obp | slg | hr/9 | k/w | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suppan | 12-7 | 4.12 | .277 | .344 | .440 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| maine | 6-5 | 3.60 | .212 | .287 | .399 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
supps does a better job of keeping the ball in the park, but the rookie appears to hold the advantage in ev'y other respect; we better start parsing things up if we want this to look better for our side. suppan pitched lights-out after the all-star break; surely that split's more encouraging:
| w-l | era | avg | obp | slg | hr/9 | k/w | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suppan | 6-2 | 2.39 | .253 | .318 | .370 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| maine | 6-2 | 3.28 | .203 | .283 | .368 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
that does indeed even things out a bit, although maine didn't pitch too shabby in the 2d half himself. but here's another bit of pertinent news: maine appears to have been more reliant upon luck than ol' supps. the stats below courtesy fangraphs:
| BABIP | LOB % | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| suppan | .301 | 72 | 4.76 |
| maine | .228 | 77 | 4.96 |
maine's .228 average on balls in play is unsustainably low; he can't expect to keep that up indefinitely. ditto his strand rate of 77 percent. their FIPs show them to be pretty evenly matched pitchers; if we could parse that figure by pre/post all-star (and i don't know where that data is available), suppan would doubtless hold an advantage. they both pitched poorly in the nlds -- maine held LA to 1 run, but only because of the dodgers' inept baserunning and 3d-base coaching; he is flyball/strikeout pitcher (0.85 go/ao ratio), so the cardinals need to exploit the kid's weakness and loft a couple over the fence.
i read something encouraging in the post-dispatch this morning:
look at it this way: a starting pitcher who is guaranteed to draw boos from the hometown crowd -- a st louis crowd, no less -- when the PA guy announces his name during the pregame introductions? that's just not a pitcher you want to use in the playoffs. don't do it, tony . . . . . please?
maybe la russa's so fed up with his critics this year that he's considering giving marquis a start just to punish us all.
if i'm the mets, i don't want to face games 6/7 with maine/trachsel as my two starters; i'm hoping to close things out in a hurry. if the cards can just hang in there and win 2 of the first 5 games, i'd take my chances with supps and carp in the last two and feel as if st louis could still swipe the series. should the cardinals manage to win either of the glavine starts (games 1 and 5), i like their chances a lot; if they don't, it's still not a lost cause.
here's hoping for a long series.
0 recs |
129 comments
Comments
I'm the first
- haven't read the main comment yet.
by _pistol_ on Oct 10, 2006 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good analysis by lb
Each team's regular season record was compiled by a different lineup and rotation than will play in this series. Some NY success was earned by Pedro, who is gone. Much of our pitching trouble came from guys who were hurt and won't be pitching in this series. Plus, some of our kids have matured over the season.
So, sit back and root for the Redbirds.
by madridbend on Oct 10, 2006 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For What it's worth ...
But you should now that the Mets record when Pedro started was under .500 this year. Would we rather have him? Of course, but they were actually a better team this year without him than with him.
Your take on Maine is accurate - but don't discount the homerun thing as "the only thing he does worse than Suppan" because it is a big deal - as we saw when Pujols hit two off him in August - but it is also what makes him tough. He's got a good heater (approx 93 - 95 with late movement) and he's not afraid to use it. It may result in a dinger or two - but it also avoid the big innings (strand rate).
I also agree - and you never know actually how it works - but that the Maine - Supp starts are the keys. Carpenter gives you guys the egde, Glavine for the Mets (although not as big - let's face it, if Pedro and El duque are healthy, Glavine most likely starts game 3 instead of 1 - so he's not scaring many guys).
I think whoever wins game 2 or game 6 or both will win the series.
Good luck!
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, didn't know that
by sdrone on Oct 10, 2006 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See Clemens, Roger
by Zubin on Oct 10, 2006 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you lboros
Also, I'm encouraged by LaRussa'a loose approach to this postseason. He seems to be less-inclined to stress the importance of the details. - and more inclined to be smiling and merely hopeful in his approach.
That being said, I still think the fans expectations are still pretty high. If the Cards look like they are tight or un-prepared (i.e. bad base-running, defensive errors) Tony should expect the criticism to be hot and heavy. However, if the rooks play well, and we end up losing several close games, I think the average fan will be more receptive to losing the lcs.
by _pistol_ on Oct 10, 2006 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Go Cards
The laughter in Bristol had us steamed
But the Friars are blushing
And we're headed to Flushing
Having accomplished much more than we'd dreamed
by iron duke75 on Oct 10, 2006 9:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
With
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Brat Pack
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But who would you leave off?
by Just Rope Ball on Oct 10, 2006 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't take...
TLR could leave Looper off, but that leaves the pen a bit thin. I'd take Narveson, b/c of the Mets weakness against lefties and his ability to start and relieve, and Reyes for game 4.
Weaver threw enough curveballs to tie up Gonzalez and Roberts and Bard, but I wouldn't send him out to face Delgado-Beltran-Floyd etc...
by guayzimi on Oct 10, 2006 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lots of back-to-back games
I don't think the choice would be Narveson vs Reyes or Weaver, but Narveson vs. Thompson or Looper. Who gives us a better chance to win the series? I've got nothing against Braden Looper but he doesn't stand to contribute much in this series, except Veteran Presence—and he can do that without holding down a spot on the active roster.
The Mets fans would be happy to see him warming up in the 'pen, though.
by liam on Oct 10, 2006 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know it would never happen
I know he had the homerun in the NLDS, and he's one of my favorite "guys" on the team, but really, what does So bring to the table?
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would love to see narveson
that and the fact that narveson's only got 9 innings of big-league experience. it'd be bold bold bold . . . . but i can't see it happening.
but yeah, it makes a ton of sense. no need to have both looper and thompson vs this lineup; leave one of em off (probably BT --- they're identical pitchers, and the clubhouse repercussions are prob'y worse if you boot looper) and you still have 4 right-handers in the bullpen. you don't need more than that vs this lineup; only lo duca and wright (and franco off the bench) demand an rhp matchup.
by lboros on Oct 10, 2006 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thompson and rookies
If someone were to get the boot, I am pretty sure it would be Hancock.
As for Tony and rookies, did you not see him turn the bullpen over to three rookies in the NLDS? Geez...
by Speedy G on Oct 10, 2006 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Problem with
by cardsrul on Oct 10, 2006 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
technically, yes
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great analysis lboros
Enough pessimism...on the plus side with Sups, all of the Mets' heavy hitters (Beltran, Wright, Delgado, and Green) are hitting a paltry .176 against him in 54 ABs with 1HR. Gotta like those numbers!!
by cmat on Oct 10, 2006 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
actually meant 68ABs
by cmat on Oct 10, 2006 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course....
But, if Juan, Belli continue to get clutch hits and Jimmy can get a few extra base hits and Rolen can do ANYTHING at all. WE might be primed for a couple early inning explosions.
by cardsfaninmass on Oct 10, 2006 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This
by rockin redbird on Oct 10, 2006 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The more rest the pitchers get, the happier I am
by Valatan on Oct 10, 2006 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my suspicion is that
by nota bene on Oct 10, 2006 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Carp, enough said. Suppan, what a horse. I will take him to battle any day. Weaver, started slow, but has done a lot better job then what I was expecting, and is turning a lot of heads in the process.
Then you go to the bullpen. Sosa, 3-10, enough said, GONE. Izzy was hurt so take away half of his blown saves. Wainy looks terrific, so I feel he could close out better then what Izzy was doing this season for another 10 games or so.
We have reduced the the playing time of people who were not producing (Marquis, Izzy, So, Miles), have gotten back our work horses who were hurt (Eck and Edmonds), and now we can use people like Miles, J-Rod, and So in bench situations for which they were intended. We have gotten back to the CARDINALS in which had the best record up to June. The team that just beat up on the Padres and the team, I think, could put out a very good Mets team.
Get excited Card fans, this team is coming around. They can do it, we need to show them we believe they can. GO CARDS!!!!
by Edmonds is baseball on Oct 10, 2006 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a very optimistic,
As we all wait in dread of Marquis being given that game 4 start, I'm curious to know what the other players think of him, and whether that will be a deciding factor for LaDuncan? I'm betting the players know Jason's the worst choice, and are probably fed up with his attitude. Let's hope a few veterans are making the case for Reyes behind the scenes.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 10, 2006 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reading VEB on a Mobile
Here's a direct link: http://hellyeahbitch.com/mobile/?site=vivaelbirdos.com
by mfflynn on Oct 10, 2006 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My Thoughts on the series...
1. I would agree with most that Narveson would be a nice addition to the pen, since the lefties Flores and Johnson should expect a lot of work in this series. Moreover, with the presence of Weaver and Suppan, the specter of a blowout is not out of the realm of possibility, and having a pen member who can come in during a blowout and pitch 3-5 innings to keep it close and preserve pen depth would be invaluable. Reyes showed on the last day of the season he is not made for that long-relief role and that stands as perhaps the biggest reason Tony would stay with Marquis on the roster, as someone who can pitch game 4 and step up in long relief. Given the options for the last 2 in the pen being Looper, Narveson, Marquis or Reyes I would go with Narveson and Reyes. I attended the infamous Izzy game in NYC and when Looper pitched in the 8th that crowd was joyous at the sight of Looper entering the game and that's something I think would be a huge negative in a high-pressure NLCS game.
2. The biggest key for this series for the Cardinal is continued bullpen success. This round will be tougher, with fewer off days, making it likely that the Met offense will get many opportunities to adjust to the Brats and very likely that the pen will need quality innings from folks like Thompson, Looper (if he is on the roster), and Hancock. Lets hope they are all up to the task.
3. I know that Larry already shoved off plate discipline as a boilerplate key to the series, but I really think it deserves a lot more focus. All of us know that the Mets staff threw only approximately 13 and a third innings in the 3 game Dodgers series, for an average of approximately 4.5 innings a start. The remainder of those innings were thrown by the deep Met bullpen. In a 7 game series, with back to back games occurring regularly, that bullpen usage rate is a positive for the Cardinals, ensuring that the longer the series the more opportunities for Cardinal hitters to familiarize themselves with the Met bullpen, and everyone knows that familiarity is a relievers worst enemy.
This is where plate discipline becomes key. It is important for the Cardinal offense to keep the Met pitchers from going deep in games, taking pitches and wearing them out. Moreover, that discipline must carryover when facing the Met relievers, forcing Met relievers to rack up high pitch counts in their limited exposure, with the long term goal being to both become familiar with the pitchers, and to wear out the Met bullpen, especially during the 3 games in St. Louis. The Cardinals goal should be to get the Mets calling for the bullpen as often as possible over the course of the series.
4. Finally, just from a series perspective, the Cards really do need a split of the first two NYC games. Without such a win, asking the Cards to take 4 out of 5 games from the Mets is a tall task. Better to spread out that order.
So long as the team is competitive and not blown out and embarrassed, like in 2000 and 2002, I will be happy with the series outcome.
by JMedwick on Oct 10, 2006 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
working the count
by Speedy G on Oct 10, 2006 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last time Tony used the term 'push'
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 10, 2006 11:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2 of 5
by BigJawnMize on Oct 10, 2006 11:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If we steal game 1
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 10, 2006 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have great deal of hope.....
So, I have hope.......maybe not confidence, but hope.
by fuegophil on Oct 10, 2006 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glavine has been rounding into form too....
Should make for a solid game 1 pitching matchup.
And our boy has a world series MVP in his pocket too but that wont make his pitches any harder to hit! lol
by PondScumFan on Oct 10, 2006 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could make it harder to pitch
by Just Rope Ball on Oct 10, 2006 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alright!
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love for..
Ahh...what might have been.
by WiscCard on Oct 10, 2006 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
But this is the series for injuries
Pedro
El Duque
Floyd
Sanchez
Cards:
Mulder
Izzy
Edmonds / Rolen / Eckstein (we'll count as one since they can play at 75% strength or so)
I guess the one thing we know is that if these teams can advance so depleted, they definitely were the two best teams in a crappy NL.
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vintage Mulder, CG SO the mets earlier this year
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not Quite
Talk about an anomoly for the season - Mulder and Izzy dominating a tough offense in a 1-0 game.
by Robb on Oct 10, 2006 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Key to Winning
by nickmcg on Oct 10, 2006 11:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
NLCS thoughts
As many others have pointed out, it seems that we may have a slight edge in starting pitching. If we could steal away game 1, I think our chances of winning would be pretty good. I have been impressed with Weaver's progress from his first couple of starts for us. He seems to be rounding back into the competent pitcher he was prior to his LAAA days.
Getting to the Mets bullpen is both good news and bad news. They have been very good. But they also got a ton of work in the LDS. In, I think it was Maine's start, Randolph used up half his pen getting four outs in the 4/5 or maybe it was 5/6 innings. I thought for a bit he was going to run out of pitchers before the game ended. If our starters can continue to go 7, I think this may end up another edge for the Cards.
Of course, the Mets lineup is scary. I was very encouraged by Suppan's line against them, however. If he is on, and our batters aren't bumfuzzled by the kid Maine, we might just have two wins there.
Lastly, please, oh please, let Reyes start game 4. The Mets have never seen him, which gives him an advantage (at least it would if the Cards were batting against him, they seem to never do well against an unfamiliar pitcher.) HWWNBN starting in Busch III would completely take the crowd out of the game. Not something you want.
All in all, the Mets, certainly, are the favorites, but I hope, and think, that it will be competitive and we just might pull it off if a couple of things fall our way.
BTW, any word on whether Rolen ever took that cortisone injection? It would seem to have needed to happen Sunday for him to be available Wed.
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rolen getting injected today
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Today!?!
Does that mean Speez will start games 1 & 2?
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
by BigJawnMize on Oct 10, 2006 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen...
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=1975&teamId=24
The rest of the starters hit him pretty well, as you can see. Edmonds hasn't, but at least gets on base.
I hope Scott is well enough to start. Spiezio should get the start in left.
by meat on Oct 10, 2006 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow,
P-Dub shouldn't get the start, it appears, so either
Speez, as suggested, or, if Rolen is a no/go (I sure hope not with a shot + 3 days off & those #'s), go ahead and give lil' Dunc a shot?
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd try Speez in left...
by guayzimi on Oct 10, 2006 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right,
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
Eck
Rolen
Albert
Edmonds
Juan
Belly
Spez/Willson/Duncan (pick which ever, I say Spez)
molina
Weaver
Rolen's shoulder might be hurt, but man, he draws a ton of walks off of Glavin, which would be a great fit infront of Albert.
by JMedwick on Oct 10, 2006 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
blog on a phone
by snortyclaus on Oct 10, 2006 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: viruses
As far as the speed of rendering the pages, there could be any number of reasons for why the two phones differ. Windows Mobile does have more overhead than Palm OS but it also has significantly richer media and application support. If you use Opera on your Windows Mobile based phone it would probably work just as well as the Palm.
I don't own either phone (my cell phone is just a cell phone ...) but thought I should clear some of that up.
by dontEATnachos on Oct 10, 2006 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
phone
by snortyclaus on Oct 10, 2006 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too much to carry
by 26thMan on Oct 10, 2006 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
from the sports guy
pretty funny.
by PGeorge on Oct 10, 2006 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Taguchi homered off Linebrink
While I agree that the Padres and Mets had the best bullpens during the regular season, that Mets bullpen gave up 8 runs in 13 1/3 innings against the Dodgers.
Glavine was the only Mets starter to qualify for a win. If the Mets bullpen logs such heavy innings against the Cards for 6-7 games, I like our chances.
by Speedy G on Oct 10, 2006 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the analysis, lb
go cards!
by Jocephus on Oct 10, 2006 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
NLCS
Of those three mini-goals, the first one seems to be the toughest. No Carpenter for us, no Oliver Perez for them.
Of course, if Marquis is starting Game 4, the 2 of 3 at home challenge becomes much more difficult.
by Robb on Oct 10, 2006 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lboros
by beanocook on Oct 10, 2006 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Kid...
Id love to See both NY teams out of it a small market world series...A's Cards or tigers cards would be great...
by punchinjudy on Oct 10, 2006 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cards v. Tigers
Reyes getting a win in Game 4 would be the thing that Cardinals legends are made of. I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it.
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have been
by punchinjudy on Oct 10, 2006 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you serious?
Yankees - 194 million
Mets - 101.0 million
Dodgers - 98.4 million
Cardinals - 88.9 million
Tigers - 82.6 million
Padres - 69.8 million
Twins - 63.3 million
A's - 62.2 million
The Cards are a lot closer to the Mets than they are to the A's (at #11 overall) and Cards fans have been complaining all year that Dewitt didn't spend any money or make any real trades at the deadline. Please don't call any world series with the Cardinals in it a small market world series. You are just embarrassing yourself.
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
small market
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He said "small market" team.
The Cardinals ARE in one of the smallest metro markets in MLB.
Oakland-StL WOULD be a "small market" Worl Series.
Please don't confuse "small market" and "low payroll"---often, the two have very little to do with each other.
Some teams are owned by billionaires (A's, Twins, etc.) who choose not to spend more on the team.
Other teams (Texas, Philly) in relatively large markets for whatever reason are unable (or unwilling) to capitalizexon the resources of the market---often a sign of poor management.
by salvomania on Oct 10, 2006 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I don't get about this
by Valatan on Oct 10, 2006 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get it either
The Giants also have a huge credit card bill because of Local Phone Company Park: Large market + huge debt service = medium payroll.
by 26thMan on Oct 10, 2006 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With all due respect ...
New stadium, radio deal, a fan base of six or seven states (the old KMOX listening area) from which to draw and over 100 years of tradition, in one of the self-appointed best baseball cities in America. I don't care about small market - which I can only assume you are using population numbers to define - means nothing. What's important is what a team can afford to spend. The Pirates are small market because they cannot literally afford to compete with the bigger cities. The Cardinals can.
If you are seriousy saying that there is some novelty to "small cities" playing against each other, then I think there would be as much charm in two teams with yellow uniforms playing each other. It means nothing.
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You May be Right
Which raises a few questions ... are the Pirates just not willing to spend (remember they did build a new stadium - a sign they were willing to invest in a future) ... did baseball's ridiculously exploding salaries (see: A-Rod, Manny, Kevin Brown) make it impossible for them to compete? Just because the Pirates had a competitive payroll in 91 does not mean that they can compete in payroll in 2006. In those 15 years, the Mets payroll has more than tripled, the Cards payroll has almost quadrupled, and the Yankees payroll has septupled (if that's even a word).
But I'm still not sure I see your point ... if the market then doesn't matter, and the city-size doesn't matter, but how much your owner is willing to spend is the big deciding factor ... then what is the big deal about a Cardinals - Tigers World series when they are both in the upper half - above 85 million bucks?
I'm not attacking ... as a Mets fan I have no problem with spending money to win; I also respect Billy Beane like hell for doing what he's done (and if you haven't read Moneyball - it's worth your time and money) ... but I don't think you can have it both ways ... and want Dewitt to go get you Carlos Lee or Soriano or Zito, to get the big name free agents, but then also to revel in your small city underdog status. In the grand scheme of things, the Cardinals are one of the biggest teams and biggest markets/payrolls/attractions/favorites in baseball. They are and never will be an underdog feel good story. It's just the way it is. There's nothing wront with it; embrace it. Your team is a team that others fear, love to hate and root against. It's a cool feeling. Others are envious of what you have. Enjoy it.
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Market matters
by jimstllax on Oct 10, 2006 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
What the Cards need to do - and they definitely have the capital and fanbase to pull this off - is follow the Mets and Yanks and get their own network. Then the money flows in ... instead of getting only a slice, you get the whole pie. It's the next wave of revnue grabbing - and it doesn't cost the fan a dime. SNY and YES are free channels (well, on standard cable at least) ... the only guys that lose in that situation are the FSNs of the world, but those are the same guys screwing the Cards on game times, so stick it to them!
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
having their own channel
by sdrone on Oct 10, 2006 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand ...
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re complaints about payroll
so why did we complain about payroll issues? couple of reasons. first, the owners claimed they needed a new stadium --- which was opposed by a majority of the public --- to keep up with the salary increases in mlb. they promised an explicit quid pro quo: new stadium = bigger payroll, better team. now they've pulled an about-face and are claiming that the debt service on the stadium prevents them from increasing payroll. that's part of why cardinal fans are angry; they're calling the owners on their own prior statements, and are pissed about the cynicism involved.
call us naive for believing the hype in the first place; that's why fans are pissed off.
couple that with the shift of radio stations and various other non-fan-friendly moves, and it seems as if the owners #1 priority isn't winning a championship; it's milking the cash cow.
by lboros on Oct 10, 2006 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you ...
Anyway, as someone said, it's really semantics, which was my point in the beginning.
Good luck to both teams ... and I really just hope either the Cards or Mets (hopefully the Mets) kick the crap out of the AL for all of the junk we've taken over the last few years.
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm unsure if I agree with the Cards buying
by Zubin on Oct 10, 2006 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Getting off track
by Just Rope Ball on Oct 10, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is closeest to what i meant
by punchinjudy on Oct 10, 2006 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re: Tigers v. Cards
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Owners' willingness to spend
But the Pirates apparently didn't learn their lesson as evidenced by the ridiculous contract they gave Jack Wilson, who I believe has more guaranteed money than Jason Bay got in his deal.
This is why teams like the Pirates, Royals and Orioles stink. They have money; they just don't know what to do with it. They use the term "small market" as an excuse to sit back and collect revenue sharing checks to fatten their short-term bottom lines while simultaneously eroding them for the long term.
by 26thMan on Oct 10, 2006 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely ...
Plus over the last few years, three roid heads have worn your uniform (Sosa, Raffy, and Tejada).
I'd rather root for the Royals. at least they never get your hopes up.
And I agree with your point. Some of these smaller teams have absolultely no clue. The Twins and As get it. The Pirates, O's, Royals, Devil Rays, Rockies (before they started cheating and weighing down the baseball in humidors), seem to be spinning in circles.
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Orioles
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pirates
by bigcardsfan5 on Oct 10, 2006 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
St Louis isn't considered a small market
by Zubin on Oct 10, 2006 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh, sorry...
by Zubin on Oct 10, 2006 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the reason I like to clarify
The Cardinals are called "large market" because they have a $90 million payroll.
The Phillies (at least until recently) were called "small market" because they had a $55-60 million payroll.
And then the Cardinals end up paying millions of dollars into the revenue sharing pool---because they're "large market"---while the Phillies---in a much larger metro area, and plagued by their own ineptitude---are able to collect millions of dollars of revenue sharing, because they're "small market."
In reality, the Phils were providing a small-payroll team to a large market, while the Cardinals are providing a large-payroll team to a small market.
Just because the St. Louis market supports its team so well (same as the Mariners in '01---or did their 3.5M attendance vault them up into "large-market", for that year, anyway?) DOES NOT CHANGE THE REALITY that they're one of the smaller metro markets in MLB.
by salvomania on Oct 10, 2006 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This Thread is probably dead ...
If St. Louis is a smaller city than Philly ... but Philly has to compete with the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Pirates, Orioles, and Nationals in the same geographical space that the Cardinals have to compete with zero teams, who do you think has the marketing and revenue advantage?
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, the marketing advantage would be the
Secondly,the denser population of the NE means that marketing can be concentrated in a smaller geographic region. This this is an indivisibility for a given market, that means those teams have greater scale economies. Lastly since many franchises advertise in the same geographic space, it builds demand for substitues- namely other franchise's games. (This is similar to the effect Pappa Johns has on Dominoes Pizza when they advertise. That is it builds demand for both chains.)
by Zubin on Oct 10, 2006 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Salvo,
by Zubin on Oct 10, 2006 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The big problem here is with media reciepts
Don't forget that the Phillies just dumped the salaries of Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu this year. Their opening day payroll was $88M. Yet they recieve money under the current revenue sharing regime (which I believe is calculed excluding media revenue). This is rediculous. The Cardinals are a well-managed team in one of the smallest, least inherently profitable cities in the US, while the Phillies are a poorly managed team in one of the largest, most profitable cities in the US. There is no way that, in a system designed to iron out differences in market size that prevent cometitiveness, that the Cardinals should be sending money to the Phillies.
by Valatan on Oct 11, 2006 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a thought about us Cards' fans...
by Big Rev on Oct 10, 2006 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
marquis isn't bipolar
if la russa gives him the ball for game 4, obviously i hope marquis pitches a good game. but that wouldn't change my opinion of his overall abilities.
by lboros on Oct 10, 2006 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BiPolar
by DimitroffVodka on Oct 10, 2006 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by wildman on Oct 10, 2006 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hummel
by enoscountry on Oct 10, 2006 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
From what...
by guayzimi on Oct 10, 2006 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are the chances?
by trogdor on Oct 10, 2006 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not Good
by DimitroffVodka on Oct 10, 2006 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed,
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bernie comments
Had a good workout ... took some good cuts in the batting cage.
La Russa indicated that Rolen will be in there against Glavine; wouldn't confirm.
Rolen is very adamant that he's OK to play, and wants to play.
La Russa playing top secret on Game 4 starter ...
But talking to Duncan and others -- the strong hunch is Reyes will get the call.
We'll know tomorrow; the guy who doesn't get the Game 4 start is unlikely to be on the roster.
Word from the Mets camp is Dave WIlliams will start Game 4.
Cardinals worked out already and most have left Shea Stadium. They're staying in a nice hotel near Times Square.
Mets are on the field now.
I may be adding stuff later after I get the transcripts from the interview room.
--B
by Jocephus on Oct 10, 2006 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was just about to post this
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dag, Yo
Again, my strong hunch is Reyes.Duncan to LaRussa: Pitch Marquis and I'll have my son spit on you.Duncan just has no use for Marquis at this point.
I'd be surprised if La Russa overruled the pitching coach on this one.
by liam on Oct 10, 2006 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Rolen can hit BP fastballs
:D
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 10, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everything Posted There
Rolen good-to-go against Glavine.
Reyes to start Game 4.
Marquis left out of the NLCS.
Williams starting over Perez. (Think Ol.Perez'll be an excellent pitcher again.)
by liam on Oct 10, 2006 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching and facing the Mets
Facing the Mets brings me back to the rivalry we had with them in the 1980's when it was us vs. them year-in-year-out in the old NL East. Tough competition - I remember really hating those guys!
Let's steal one in NYC, grab 2 out of 3 at home, and look to Soup or Carp to get a win in NYC. GO CARDS!
by wildman on Oct 10, 2006 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
amazin avenue (the mets blog at sb nation)
was very shocked to see the amount of responses he was getting, almost none, 6 for one post, 11 for another, and his blog seems like a decent one
are there just not as many people who know about that blog, or is our larry just so much better, or do our fans just seem to want to talk about the cards more? interested to see if anyone else has any ideas on this
by bigcardsfan5 on Oct 10, 2006 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Some may be elsewhere
I cracked up when I got over there and saw that there were 40+ comments about the post.
by dontEATnachos on Oct 10, 2006 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's some ugly stuff...
one question: why go there?
by salvomania on Oct 10, 2006 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just athooks being athooks
It's just that trademarked internet spite.
The funny thing is that thanks to the comments, in the end everyone ends up looking like a jackass.
by dontEATnachos on Oct 10, 2006 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they use other blogs
by enoscountry on Oct 10, 2006 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post
In a way it's fun to come into this series being such an underdog. We have nothing to lose and all the pressure and expectations are on the Mets. Maybe down deep inside LaRussa is loving this - he doesn't have to play by the book, and his decisions can really have a positive impact on the outcome (rather than messing up "the book"!). Only 1 out of 20 "experts" at ESPN picked us to win the NLDS - which highlights why lboros doesn't think much of what they have to say - so let's go play loose and win again. Having just watched "Angels in the Outfield" with my boys, "It could happen"!
by wildman on Oct 10, 2006 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's because VEB rules.
So, my thanks to larry and my thanks to everyone who posts here.
by Archaeopteryx on Oct 10, 2006 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FYI
by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
by Edmonds is baseball on Oct 10, 2006 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Stronger lineups than the Mets'...
That lineup scares me, but so did the Padres as a whole (not the lineup itself, but all their lefties, their pitching, and how much hotter they were than the Cards.) I like the playoffs-as-crapshoot meme - it lets me sleep a little easier at night this time of year.
by birdjam on Oct 10, 2006 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lineup
Speaking of lefty/righty, when a batter has such a dramatic difference in batting average when switch hitting, why does he continue to do it.
Example: Berkman this year hit way more homers and had a much better average as a lefty then he did as a righty. Did he hit left handed at all against lefties? Just to try it?
I switch hit in HS and College but I would stick with the hot hand. ... I guess that's why I never made it past college
by Edmonds is baseball on Oct 10, 2006 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Help
<quote>Welke will work the NLCS between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals. It is his sixth LCS assignment.
Welke will be joined by Jim Joyce (third), Jerry Layne (third), Fieldin Culbreth (third), Jeff Kellogg (fifth) and Gary Darling (third). </quote>
Seems like Crawford and Cousins have been our problems umps in the past, right? (They're both in the ALCS, for what it's worth.)
by Robb on Oct 10, 2006 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Woo Hoo!
by Robb on Oct 10, 2006 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Awesome...
If Hunter and his lame .323 career obp is worth 12mil, surely Edmonds is worth 7, right?
Hunter's 2006 was just a notch below his career year of 2002, and he posted a .278 .336 .490.
Edmonds posted a .257 .350 .471, and everybody considered it a washout...
by guayzimi on Oct 10, 2006 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The
by JMedwick on Oct 10, 2006 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bernie over at the PD:
--B"
At least our sentiments are being well-represented by the media. I love Bernie.
by lawman3842 on Oct 10, 2006 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
and a follow-up:
He asked me how I would vote -- Reyes or Marquis -- and I said, give us "The Kid."
--B"
by lawman3842 on Oct 10, 2006 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs



















