start spreading the news . . . . . .
before we get into this: it has been asked if VEB can be downloaded to a cellphone. the best answer i can give after various inquiries is that you can do it with a browser called Opera Mini, which is downloadable from this site. reader I Touched Mcgee was posting from busch III sunday night at the clincher via his cell; McGee, if you have any other advice about downloading to / posting from a cell, please clue the folks in.
alright, then: the mets.
in my nlds preview last week, i consulted voros mccracken's playoff crap-shoot matrix and a similar odds-making formula by baseball prospectus' james click; they estimated the cards' chances of winning the series at 40 to 45 percent, not terrible odds. but the two instruments are less sanguine about the possibility of a st louis upset over the mets --- likelihood's only about 1 in 3, per these formulae.
that forecast checks out with the empirical evidence. the cardinals won 14 fewer games than the mets this season, making this the 9th most lopsided matchup in lcs history (3d most lopsided if we consider the nlcs only). in the 8 matchups more lopsided than this one, the underdog won 2 times -- a 25 percent success rate. if we expand our sample size to include all lcs matchups with a spread of 10 wins or more, here's what we get:
| win differential |
underdog record |
|---|---|
| 20+ games | 1-3 |
| 15-19 games | 1-3 |
| 10-14 games | 3-8 |
| total | 5-14 |
common trait among the upset winners? four of the five had (duh) at least 2 dominant starters at the top of the rotation. (if you're keeping score at home, those four teams are the 2005 astros, 1987 twins, 1973 mets, and 2001 yankees.) if you ask me, a 1 in 4 shot at a world series berth is pretty good for an 83-win ballclub; those odds are about the same as the odds that juan encarnacion might get a basehit in a given at-bat. it's far from hopeless.
for the first time in recent memory, the cardinals have a real opportunity to win a series with their bats; no schmidts, schillings, or oswalts anywhere in sight. a couple of blitzkreig attacks against new york's feeble starters might set the kind of tone that can foster an upset. but the cards better score early, because the met bullpen is every bit the equal of the padres'; if the games are tight, new york will hold the edge. it went unnoticed, but st louis didn't score off the san diego pen until the final game, and both the runs were unearned. the cardinals' young relievers matched san diego's zero for zero, but i wouldn't bet on kinney johnson and wainwright pitching like aces forever. the mets have a tougher lineup, and the nlcs is a bigger stage; i hope the kids can keep posting 0s on the scoreboard, but i am not counting on it.
jeff suppan has a chance to make a name for himself in this series; a good start or two on this stage with the national media paying rapt attention, and he's like to drive up his asking price by $2m a year on the free-agent market. he's slated to pitch games 2 and 6 opposite new york rookie john maine, and those loom as pivotal matchups. on paper (for what little that's worth in a short series), the mets hold the advantage in games 1 and 5 (glavine vs weaver), and the cards hold it in 3 and 7 (carpenter vs trachsel); game 4 (perez vs marquis/reyes) is a tossup. maine and suppan appear to be pretty evenly matched; let's take a closer look:
| w-l | era | avg | obp | slg | hr/9 | k/w | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suppan | 12-7 | 4.12 | .277 | .344 | .440 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| maine | 6-5 | 3.60 | .212 | .287 | .399 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
supps does a better job of keeping the ball in the park, but the rookie appears to hold the advantage in ev'y other respect; we better start parsing things up if we want this to look better for our side. suppan pitched lights-out after the all-star break; surely that split's more encouraging:
| w-l | era | avg | obp | slg | hr/9 | k/w | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| suppan | 6-2 | 2.39 | .253 | .318 | .370 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| maine | 6-2 | 3.28 | .203 | .283 | .368 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
that does indeed even things out a bit, although maine didn't pitch too shabby in the 2d half himself. but here's another bit of pertinent news: maine appears to have been more reliant upon luck than ol' supps. the stats below courtesy fangraphs:
| BABIP | LOB % | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| suppan | .301 | 72 | 4.76 |
| maine | .228 | 77 | 4.96 |
maine's .228 average on balls in play is unsustainably low; he can't expect to keep that up indefinitely. ditto his strand rate of 77 percent. their FIPs show them to be pretty evenly matched pitchers; if we could parse that figure by pre/post all-star (and i don't know where that data is available), suppan would doubtless hold an advantage. they both pitched poorly in the nlds -- maine held LA to 1 run, but only because of the dodgers' inept baserunning and 3d-base coaching; he is flyball/strikeout pitcher (0.85 go/ao ratio), so the cardinals need to exploit the kid's weakness and loft a couple over the fence.
i read something encouraging in the post-dispatch this morning:
look at it this way: a starting pitcher who is guaranteed to draw boos from the hometown crowd -- a st louis crowd, no less -- when the PA guy announces his name during the pregame introductions? that's just not a pitcher you want to use in the playoffs. don't do it, tony . . . . . please?
maybe la russa's so fed up with his critics this year that he's considering giving marquis a start just to punish us all.
if i'm the mets, i don't want to face games 6/7 with maine/trachsel as my two starters; i'm hoping to close things out in a hurry. if the cards can just hang in there and win 2 of the first 5 games, i'd take my chances with supps and carp in the last two and feel as if st louis could still swipe the series. should the cardinals manage to win either of the glavine starts (games 1 and 5), i like their chances a lot; if they don't, it's still not a lost cause.
here's hoping for a long series.
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comments
Comments
I'm the first
- haven't read the main comment yet.
by _pistol_ on Oct 10, 2006 9:15 AM EDT 0 recs
good analysis by lb
Each team's regular season record was compiled by a different lineup and rotation than will play in this series. Some NY success was earned by Pedro, who is gone. Much of our pitching trouble came from guys who were hurt and won't be pitching in this series. Plus, some of our kids have matured over the season.
So, sit back and root for the Redbirds.
by madridbend on
Oct 10, 2006 9:41 AM EDT
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For What it's worth ...
But you should now that the Mets record when Pedro started was under .500 this year. Would we rather have him? Of course, but they were actually a better team this year without him than with him.
Your take on Maine is accurate - but don't discount the homerun thing as "the only thing he does worse than Suppan" because it is a big deal - as we saw when Pujols hit two off him in August - but it is also what makes him tough. He's got a good heater (approx 93 - 95 with late movement) and he's not afraid to use it. It may result in a dinger or two - but it also avoid the big innings (strand rate).
I also agree - and you never know actually how it works - but that the Maine - Supp starts are the keys. Carpenter gives you guys the egde, Glavine for the Mets (although not as big - let's face it, if Pedro and El duque are healthy, Glavine most likely starts game 3 instead of 1 - so he's not scaring many guys).
I think whoever wins game 2 or game 6 or both will win the series.
Good luck!
by Nails on
Oct 10, 2006 11:30 AM EDT
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Wow, didn't know that
by sdrone on
Oct 10, 2006 12:44 PM EDT
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See Clemens, Roger
by Zubin on
Oct 10, 2006 2:45 PM EDT
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I'm with you lboros
Also, I'm encouraged by LaRussa'a loose approach to this postseason. He seems to be less-inclined to stress the importance of the details. - and more inclined to be smiling and merely hopeful in his approach.
That being said, I still think the fans expectations are still pretty high. If the Cards look like they are tight or un-prepared (i.e. bad base-running, defensive errors) Tony should expect the criticism to be hot and heavy. However, if the rooks play well, and we end up losing several close games, I think the average fan will be more receptive to losing the lcs.
by _pistol_ on Oct 10, 2006 9:31 AM EDT 0 recs
Go Cards
The laughter in Bristol had us steamed
But the Friars are blushing
And we're headed to Flushing
Having accomplished much more than we'd dreamed
by iron duke75 on Oct 10, 2006 9:37 AM EDT 0 recs
With
by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 9:39 AM EDT 0 recs
The Brat Pack
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Oct 10, 2006 9:47 AM EDT
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But who would you leave off?
by Just Rope Ball on
Oct 10, 2006 9:50 AM EDT
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You can't take...
TLR could leave Looper off, but that leaves the pen a bit thin. I'd take Narveson, b/c of the Mets weakness against lefties and his ability to start and relieve, and Reyes for game 4.
Weaver threw enough curveballs to tie up Gonzalez and Roberts and Bard, but I wouldn't send him out to face Delgado-Beltran-Floyd etc...
by guayzimi on
Oct 10, 2006 10:04 AM EDT
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Lots of back-to-back games
I don't think the choice would be Narveson vs Reyes or Weaver, but Narveson vs. Thompson or Looper. Who gives us a better chance to win the series? I've got nothing against Braden Looper but he doesn't stand to contribute much in this series, except Veteran Presence—and he can do that without holding down a spot on the active roster.
The Mets fans would be happy to see him warming up in the 'pen, though.
by liam on
Oct 10, 2006 10:24 AM EDT
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I know it would never happen
I know he had the homerun in the NLDS, and he's one of my favorite "guys" on the team, but really, what does So bring to the table?
by Alxfritz on
Oct 10, 2006 10:25 AM EDT
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i would love to see narveson
that and the fact that narveson's only got 9 innings of big-league experience. it'd be bold bold bold . . . . but i can't see it happening.
but yeah, it makes a ton of sense. no need to have both looper and thompson vs this lineup; leave one of em off (probably BT --- they're identical pitchers, and the clubhouse repercussions are prob'y worse if you boot looper) and you still have 4 right-handers in the bullpen. you don't need more than that vs this lineup; only lo duca and wright (and franco off the bench) demand an rhp matchup.
by lboros on
Oct 10, 2006 11:28 AM EDT
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Thompson and rookies
If someone were to get the boot, I am pretty sure it would be Hancock.
As for Tony and rookies, did you not see him turn the bullpen over to three rookies in the NLDS? Geez...
by Speedy G on
Oct 10, 2006 12:09 PM EDT
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Problem with
by cardsrul on
Oct 10, 2006 5:35 PM EDT
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technically, yes
by Alxfritz on
Oct 10, 2006 9:20 PM EDT
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Great analysis lboros
Enough pessimism...on the plus side with Sups, all of the Mets' heavy hitters (Beltran, Wright, Delgado, and Green) are hitting a paltry .176 against him in 54 ABs with 1HR. Gotta like those numbers!!
by cmat on Oct 10, 2006 9:47 AM EDT 0 recs
actually meant 68ABs
by cmat on
Oct 10, 2006 9:50 AM EDT
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Of course....
But, if Juan, Belli continue to get clutch hits and Jimmy can get a few extra base hits and Rolen can do ANYTHING at all. WE might be primed for a couple early inning explosions.
by cardsfaninmass on Oct 10, 2006 9:48 AM EDT 0 recs
This
by rockin redbird on Oct 10, 2006 9:58 AM EDT 0 recs
The more rest the pitchers get, the happier I am
by Valatan on
Oct 10, 2006 12:02 PM EDT
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my suspicion is that
by nota bene on
Oct 10, 2006 3:06 PM EDT
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agreed
Carp, enough said. Suppan, what a horse. I will take him to battle any day. Weaver, started slow, but has done a lot better job then what I was expecting, and is turning a lot of heads in the process.
Then you go to the bullpen. Sosa, 3-10, enough said, GONE. Izzy was hurt so take away half of his blown saves. Wainy looks terrific, so I feel he could close out better then what Izzy was doing this season for another 10 games or so.
We have reduced the the playing time of people who were not producing (Marquis, Izzy, So, Miles), have gotten back our work horses who were hurt (Eck and Edmonds), and now we can use people like Miles, J-Rod, and So in bench situations for which they were intended. We have gotten back to the CARDINALS in which had the best record up to June. The team that just beat up on the Padres and the team, I think, could put out a very good Mets team.
Get excited Card fans, this team is coming around. They can do it, we need to show them we believe they can. GO CARDS!!!!
by Edmonds is baseball on Oct 10, 2006 10:04 AM EDT 0 recs
That's a very optimistic,
As we all wait in dread of Marquis being given that game 4 start, I'm curious to know what the other players think of him, and whether that will be a deciding factor for LaDuncan? I'm betting the players know Jason's the worst choice, and are probably fed up with his attitude. Let's hope a few veterans are making the case for Reyes behind the scenes.
by MdRedbirdFreak on
Oct 10, 2006 10:17 AM EDT
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Reading VEB on a Mobile
Here's a direct link: http://hellyeahbitch.com/mobile/?site=vivaelbirdos.com
by mfflynn on Oct 10, 2006 10:29 AM EDT 0 recs
My Thoughts on the series...
1. I would agree with most that Narveson would be a nice addition to the pen, since the lefties Flores and Johnson should expect a lot of work in this series. Moreover, with the presence of Weaver and Suppan, the specter of a blowout is not out of the realm of possibility, and having a pen member who can come in during a blowout and pitch 3-5 innings to keep it close and preserve pen depth would be invaluable. Reyes showed on the last day of the season he is not made for that long-relief role and that stands as perhaps the biggest reason Tony would stay with Marquis on the roster, as someone who can pitch game 4 and step up in long relief. Given the options for the last 2 in the pen being Looper, Narveson, Marquis or Reyes I would go with Narveson and Reyes. I attended the infamous Izzy game in NYC and when Looper pitched in the 8th that crowd was joyous at the sight of Looper entering the game and that's something I think would be a huge negative in a high-pressure NLCS game.
2. The biggest key for this series for the Cardinal is continued bullpen success. This round will be tougher, with fewer off days, making it likely that the Met offense will get many opportunities to adjust to the Brats and very likely that the pen will need quality innings from folks like Thompson, Looper (if he is on the roster), and Hancock. Lets hope they are all up to the task.
3. I know that Larry already shoved off plate discipline as a boilerplate key to the series, but I really think it deserves a lot more focus. All of us know that the Mets staff threw only approximately 13 and a third innings in the 3 game Dodgers series, for an average of approximately 4.5 innings a start. The remainder of those innings were thrown by the deep Met bullpen. In a 7 game series, with back to back games occurring regularly, that bullpen usage rate is a positive for the Cardinals, ensuring that the longer the series the more opportunities for Cardinal hitters to familiarize themselves with the Met bullpen, and everyone knows that familiarity is a relievers worst enemy.
This is where plate discipline becomes key. It is important for the Cardinal offense to keep the Met pitchers from going deep in games, taking pitches and wearing them out. Moreover, that discipline must carryover when facing the Met relievers, forcing Met relievers to rack up high pitch counts in their limited exposure, with the long term goal being to both become familiar with the pitchers, and to wear out the Met bullpen, especially during the 3 games in St. Louis. The Cardinals goal should be to get the Mets calling for the bullpen as often as possible over the course of the series.
4. Finally, just from a series perspective, the Cards really do need a split of the first two NYC games. Without such a win, asking the Cards to take 4 out of 5 games from the Mets is a tall task. Better to spread out that order.
So long as the team is competitive and not blown out and embarrassed, like in 2000 and 2002, I will be happy with the series outcome.
by JMedwick on Oct 10, 2006 10:51 AM EDT 0 recs
working the count
by Speedy G on
Oct 10, 2006 12:21 PM EDT
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The last time Tony used the term 'push'
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 10, 2006 11:03 AM EDT 0 recs
2 of 5
by BigJawnMize on Oct 10, 2006 11:15 AM EDT 0 recs
If we steal game 1
by Hardcore Legend on
Oct 10, 2006 11:18 AM EDT
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I have great deal of hope.....
So, I have hope.......maybe not confidence, but hope.
by fuegophil on
Oct 10, 2006 11:48 AM EDT
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Glavine has been rounding into form too....
Should make for a solid game 1 pitching matchup.
And our boy has a world series MVP in his pocket too but that wont make his pitches any harder to hit! lol
by PondScumFan on
Oct 10, 2006 11:52 AM EDT
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Could make it harder to pitch
by Just Rope Ball on
Oct 10, 2006 11:55 AM EDT
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Alright!
by Nails on
Oct 10, 2006 12:56 PM EDT
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I'd love for..
Ahh...what might have been.
by WiscCard on Oct 10, 2006 11:28 AM EDT 0 recs
But this is the series for injuries
Pedro
El Duque
Floyd
Sanchez
Cards:
Mulder
Izzy
Edmonds / Rolen / Eckstein (we'll count as one since they can play at 75% strength or so)
I guess the one thing we know is that if these teams can advance so depleted, they definitely were the two best teams in a crappy NL.
by Nails on
Oct 10, 2006 11:36 AM EDT
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Vintage Mulder, CG SO the mets earlier this year
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Oct 10, 2006 11:41 AM EDT
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Not Quite
Talk about an anomoly for the season - Mulder and Izzy dominating a tough offense in a 1-0 game.
by Robb on
Oct 10, 2006 12:18 PM EDT
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You're right...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Oct 10, 2006 12:31 PM EDT
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Key to Winning
by nickmcg on Oct 10, 2006 11:34 AM EDT 0 recs
NLCS thoughts
As many others have pointed out, it seems that we may have a slight edge in starting pitching. If we could steal away game 1, I think our chances of winning would be pretty good. I have been impressed with Weaver's progress from his first couple of starts for us. He seems to be rounding back into the competent pitcher he was prior to his LAAA days.
Getting to the Mets bullpen is both good news and bad news. They have been very good. But they also got a ton of work in the LDS. In, I think it was Maine's start, Randolph used up half his pen getting four outs in the 4/5 or maybe it was 5/6 innings. I thought for a bit he was going to run out of pitchers before the game ended. If our starters can continue to go 7, I think this may end up another edge for the Cards.
Of course, the Mets lineup is scary. I was very encouraged by Suppan's line against them, however. If he is on, and our batters aren't bumfuzzled by the kid Maine, we might just have two wins there.
Lastly, please, oh please, let Reyes start game 4. The Mets have never seen him, which gives him an advantage (at least it would if the Cards were batting against him, they seem to never do well against an unfamiliar pitcher.) HWWNBN starting in Busch III would completely take the crowd out of the game. Not something you want.
All in all, the Mets, certainly, are the favorites, but I hope, and think, that it will be competitive and we just might pull it off if a couple of things fall our way.
BTW, any word on whether Rolen ever took that cortisone injection? It would seem to have needed to happen Sunday for him to be available Wed.
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 11:37 AM EDT 0 recs
Rolen getting injected today
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Oct 10, 2006 11:44 AM EDT
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Today!?!
Does that mean Speez will start games 1 & 2?
by ArkansasTravs on
Oct 10, 2006 12:36 PM EDT
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I think...
by BigJawnMize on
Oct 10, 2006 12:42 PM EDT
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Have you seen...
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=1975&teamId=24
The rest of the starters hit him pretty well, as you can see. Edmonds hasn't, but at least gets on base.
I hope Scott is well enough to start. Spiezio should get the start in left.
by meat on
Oct 10, 2006 2:03 PM EDT
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Wow,
P-Dub shouldn't get the start, it appears, so either
Speez, as suggested, or, if Rolen is a no/go (I sure hope not with a shot + 3 days off & those #'s), go ahead and give lil' Dunc a shot?
by ArkansasTravs on
Oct 10, 2006 2:27 PM EDT
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I'd try Speez in left...
by guayzimi on
Oct 10, 2006 2:32 PM EDT
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Right,
by ArkansasTravs on
Oct 10, 2006 2:40 PM EDT
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Maybe...
Eck
Rolen
Albert
Edmonds
Juan
Belly
Spez/Willson/Duncan (pick which ever, I say Spez)
molina
Weaver
Rolen's shoulder might be hurt, but man, he draws a ton of walks off of Glavin, which would be a great fit infront of Albert.
by JMedwick on
Oct 10, 2006 3:18 PM EDT
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blog on a phone
by snortyclaus on Oct 10, 2006 11:46 AM EDT 0 recs
re: viruses
As far as the speed of rendering the pages, there could be any number of reasons for why the two phones differ. Windows Mobile does have more overhead than Palm OS but it also has significantly richer media and application support. If you use Opera on your Windows Mobile based phone it would probably work just as well as the Palm.
I don't own either phone (my cell phone is just a cell phone ...) but thought I should clear some of that up.
by dontEATnachos on
Oct 10, 2006 12:11 PM EDT
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phone
by snortyclaus on
Oct 10, 2006 1:04 PM EDT
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Too much to carry
by 26thMan on
Oct 10, 2006 2:18 PM EDT
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from the sports guy
pretty funny.
by PGeorge on Oct 10, 2006 11:47 AM EDT 0 recs
Taguchi homered off Linebrink
While I agree that the Padres and Mets had the best bullpens during the regular season, that Mets bullpen gave up 8 runs in 13 1/3 innings against the Dodgers.
Glavine was the only Mets starter to qualify for a win. If the Mets bullpen logs such heavy innings against the Cards for 6-7 games, I like our chances.
by Speedy G on Oct 10, 2006 11:50 AM EDT 0 recs
thanks for the analysis, lb
go cards!
by Jocephus on Oct 10, 2006 12:09 PM EDT 0 recs
NLCS
Of those three mini-goals, the first one seems to be the toughest. No Carpenter for us, no Oliver Perez for them.
Of course, if Marquis is starting Game 4, the 2 of 3 at home challenge becomes much more difficult.
by Robb on Oct 10, 2006 12:21 PM EDT 0 recs
Lboros
by beanocook on Oct 10, 2006 12:34 PM EDT 0 recs
The Kid...
Id love to See both NY teams out of it a small market world series...A's Cards or tigers cards would be great...
by punchinjudy on Oct 10, 2006 12:58 PM EDT 0 recs
Cards v. Tigers
Reyes getting a win in Game 4 would be the thing that Cardinals legends are made of. I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it.
by Alxfritz on
Oct 10, 2006 1:00 PM EDT
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I have been
by punchinjudy on
Oct 10, 2006 1:09 PM EDT
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Are you serious?
Yankees - 194 million
Mets - 101.0 million
Dodgers - 98.4 million
Cardinals - 88.9 million
Tigers - 82.6 million
Padres - 69.8 million
Twins - 63.3 million
A's - 62.2 million
The Cards are a lot closer to the Mets than they are to the A's (at #11 overall) and Cards fans have been complaining all year that Dewitt didn't spend any money or make any real trades at the deadline. Please don't call any world series with the Cardinals in it a small market world series. You are just embarrassing yourself.
by Nails on
Oct 10, 2006 1:23 PM EDT
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He said "small market" team.
The Cardinals ARE in one of the smallest metro markets in MLB.
Oakland-StL WOULD be a "small market" Worl Series.
Please don't confuse "small market" and "low payroll"---often, the two have very little to do with each other.
Some teams are owned by billionaires (A's, Twins, etc.) who choose not to spend more on the team.
Other teams (Texas, Philly) in relatively large markets for whatever reason are unable (or unwilling) to capitalizexon the resources of the market---often a sign of poor management.
by salvomania on
Oct 10, 2006 1:44 PM EDT
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What I don't get about this
by Valatan on
Oct 10, 2006 1:49 PM EDT
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