project jimmy

by lboros on Jan 26, 2006 6:12 AM EST in News Comment 66 comments

2d installment in valatan's all-time card'l series is up --- 2bmen.

last spring, john sickels launched an experiment at Minor League Ball: community projections. he asked every reader to project a stat line -- avg, obp, slg, and steals -- for corey patterson, using nothing more than common sense and intuition to guide them. sickels specifically forbade his readers from relying on PECOTA, ZIPS, and other advanced forecasting methods; he wanted to know how an unscientific projection would compare to a statistically modeled one -- and even whether it might prove to be more accurate.

sickels got 64 responses on corey patterson and averaged them out. here was the community's aggregate projection:

avg	obp	slg	sb
.275	.333	.475	27

not very accurate, as you're no doubt aware; patterson actually posted a .215/.254/.348 line with 15 sb. but the community's projection was no further off the mark than the "professional" forecasts published by baseball prospectus, bill james, ron shandler, and other sayers of baseball sooth.

by the end of the spring sickels had run community projections on about two dozen players, and the community's lines usually ended up in roughly the same range as the lines generated by the stat models. some were very accurate -- for example, in the case of mark mulder:

	w-l	era	inn	bb/k
projected	15-9	3.86	194	57/135
actual	16-8	3.64	205	70/111

others were wide of the mark in varying degrees -- but, again, almost always very close to what the expert forecasters came up with.

a couple of other SB Nationeers have picked up the idea. for example, the northsiders at Bleed Cubbie Blue think kerry wood's gonna muster 149 innings and go 11-6 with a 3.79 era and 162 strikeouts. and the oriole partisans at Camden Chat projected corey patterson (the player who started this whole thing) to .261/.299/.432 with 18 homers and 19 steals.

i'm flying out of town for a conference this morning and flying back tonight, and i'll be nowhere near a computer all day -- perfect time to try this idea. if the response is good and people seem to have fun with it, we'll do some more of these; if you think it's a stupid idea say so in the comments, and if that's the consensus i'll retire the idea.

let's use jim edmonds as a test case. he'll turn 36 this year and is coming off his weakest season as a cardinal. do you think he'll bounce back in 2006, or was '05 the beginning of an irreversible decline? ground rules: assume 450 at-bats for jimmy (he has averaged about 475 over the last four seasons) and 550 plate appearances; please project totals in these six categories:

batting avg
on-base pct
slugging avg
homers
runs scored
runs batted in

gotta have firm numbers in each category, not ranges. you're not allowed to consult ZIPS, bill james, PECOTA, or the like as you form your projection; however, i'd encourage you to look at as many raw numbers as you want. here are edmonds' lines going back to 2002:

	avg	obp	slg	hr	rbi	r
2002	.311	.420	.561	28	83	96
2003	.275	.385	.617	39	89	89
2004	.301	.418	.643	42	111	102
2005	.263	.385	.533	29	89	88

and here are some potentially useful references:

edmonds' 2005 splits at espn
his baseball reference page, including his 10 most similar hitters
his davenport translations at baseball prospectus

post your projections in the comments. you are welcome -- but not obligated -- to include the rationale behind your projection. i'm hoping we can get a minimum of 50 entries; don't be shy, people.

i'll have standard & poor's tally 'em up on friday morning and post the results.

0 recs | Comment 66 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

i'll dive in first

my projection is: .272/.395/.515; 25 hr, 82 bi, 86 r.

i think edmonds is an old 35; always banged up, taking longer to heal. his list of comparables includes numerous guys (reggie smith, dave justice, fred lynn) who stepped down a rung at around age 35 and never stepped back up, and numerous others (dick allen, tim salmon, mo vaughn) whose careers were over by 35. i'm also mindful of what happened to bernie williams, who fell off a cliff at age 34 and never rebounded. edmonds is starting from a higher plateau, so he can lose 100+ points of ops (as he did last year) and still be a great hitter. but i don't see a rebound forthcoming. anything over a .900 ops counts as a good season, imho.

by lboros on Jan 26, 2006 6:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

edmonds projections

# batting avg .300
# on-base pct .397
# slugging avg .600
# homers 39
# runs scored 97
# runs battedin 109

by vikelt on Jan 26, 2006 6:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

jimmy e's projections

ba: .287
obp: .385
slg: .525
hr: 22
rbi: 95
r: 82

I think age and the larger dimensions hurt his power. However, being projected in the 4 hole could increase rbis and, contract year, if we don't pick up his option, tends to bring increased numbers. I don't think he's ready to hang'em up yet.

by legal dealer on Jan 26, 2006 7:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy's projections

.295/.400/.560; 36hr, 112rbi, 85r

Mostly due to the switch in batting order.

by elderj on Jan 26, 2006 8:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

JED in ought-six:

avg... .276
obp... .378
slg... .552
hr.... 28
rbi... 91
r.... 86

by salvomania on Jan 26, 2006 8:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's

Exactly what I was thinking

Cheers, Alex Fritz

by Alxfritz on Jan 26, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here goes nothin'

.289/.393/.558; 34 HR, 101 RBI, 92 R

by Hummingbird on Jan 26, 2006 9:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

some rationale

I'm not sure how helpful some of the comps are; other than Lynn, not many of them were full-time CFs--and they weren't 8-time Gold Glovers. Weirdly enough, I'm kinda basing my prediction for Jed's offense on his defense. The fact that he can still be the best defensive CF in the leage at age 35 suggests that he might have more gas in the tank than we think. He's spryer than he appears, I tell you.

by Hummingbird on Jan 26, 2006 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jed's 2006

I think Edmonds is just wily enough to become a better situational hitter as he falls off in power. That walk in Game 5 pre-Pujols was brilliant. Now the But: homers down, runs down (because he hopefully won't be batting third), but RBIs up in the lower hole (please God don't let Tony bat him second again).

Batting: .260
On-base: .390
Slugging: .550
HR: 25
Runs: 90
RBI: 97

by itsalemmon1019 on Jan 26, 2006 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

edmonds

.275/.387/.542
25 HR, 80 RBI, 75 r

i think he misses some games, and his lineup protection suffers because Rolen will most likely miss 10-15 games too. (assuming TLR maintains JEd 4th and Rolen 5th most of the season). he also suffers because of the lack of any serious threats in the 6-8 spots.

Cardinals Diaspora

by VanRam on Jan 26, 2006 9:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

this is

closest without going over, right?

Cardinals Diaspora

by VanRam on Jan 26, 2006 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Price is Right

.280/.387/.552, 31 HR, 97 RBI, 87 R

I'm assuming he's hitting 4th with a healthy Rolen behind him.

by STLEdge on Jan 26, 2006 9:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna

be a cockeyed optimist and go the rebound route:

290 avg/400 opb/600 slg/32 hr/97 rbi/92 r

I know, I know--wishful thinking. I too believe Jed to be an "old" 35. But what the hell--I feel generous and full of faith in our boys this morning (for some goofy reason).

by rockin redbird on Jan 26, 2006 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

"princess"

batting avg .282
on-base pct .365
slugging avg .559
homers 29
runs scored 91
runs batted in 93

by TenRingsAndCounting on Jan 26, 2006 9:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Still plenty in the tank...

His 40 homer days are probably behind him, but Jim still has a lot of productivity left...

AVG .291
OBP .393
SLG .586
HR 33
RS 94
RBI 98

by Bivouac77 on Jan 26, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

jimmy ed

I like this concept; my thinking is that while Edmonds is on the downhill side, his overall athleticism will delay the inevitable slide. This factor combined with the assumed return of Scott Rolen for a full season should allow him to post good numbers in 2006 although I would forsee some drop in overall power. (IMO, the big caveat is the assumption that he remains healthy enough to get in the prescribed number of plate appearances).

Batting average: .280
On base pct: .395
Slug pct: .520
Home Runs: 25
RBI's: 85
Runs: 90

by llcolt on Jan 26, 2006 10:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

JEd's Catch-22

avg: .272
obp: .382
slg: .522
hr: 22
rbi: 92
runs: 82

by Just Rope Ball on Jan 26, 2006 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

batting #4

avg: .285
obp: .360
slg: .531
hr: 36
rbi: 109
runs: 88

by RB on Jan 26, 2006 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

OBP seems kind of low, given the BA

Edmonds' walks have added at least 106 point to his OBP, compared to BA, in each his 6 Cardinal seasons.... Last year, when he hit just .263, he still had a .385 OBP...

by salvomania on Jan 26, 2006 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lets just hope

that he finally catches one of his famous hot streaks this year and runs with it for a while

by RB on Jan 26, 2006 10:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My crystal ball says:

Batting average: .280
On base pct: .400
Slug pct: .540
Home Runs: 33
RBI's: 103
Runs: 92

A bit of a rebound year with some concessions for regression (from the MVP type year of 2004). It looks like LaRussa might go with a consistent lineup with Jimmy in the 4 hole next year (though I fully expect him to flip Rolen/Jimmy with a southpaw starter on the mound).

Looking at the splits, there seemed to be one thing missing from Jimmy's 2005 (compared to his 2004): the patented JimmyStreak (TM). This is purely conjecture, but it seemed like Edmonds got injured right when he was hitting on all cylinders sometime in the June/July of 2005. I also seem to remember Albert being quoted in the paper saying something like "Look out Jimmy's about to go on a roll", or something to that effect (right before the injury). I think he hits his streak at a better time this year (when he won't be in the middle of one of his injuries), causing the numbers to go up a bit.

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jan 26, 2006 10:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

P.S.

Great concept lboras! I really like the idea.

For all of those projecting Edmonds' BA to go up and his OBP to go down, remember that you're basically saying that his walk rate will go down without having Pujols behind him. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe walk rates usually stay the same or go up as yhis age, they don't usually regress (at least not to the extent of some of the numbers I've seen). Just some food for thought...

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jan 26, 2006 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Spell check...

I apologize lboros for the name misspelling...

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jan 26, 2006 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Supposing #4 in order...

ba: .285
obp: .375
slg: .559
hr: 32
rbi: 105
r: 85

by shr3dd3r on Jan 26, 2006 11:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Love this thread...

I'll chime in with:

BA: .291
OBP: .402
Slug pct: .580
HR: 32
RBI's: 96
Runs: 94

Highlight film catches: 13

by cmat on Jan 26, 2006 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who knows???

Jimmy has been one of my favs since coming to stl, i would love to see a rebound season in order but at his age and affection for running into the cf wall(maybe NASA can design the padding in Busch 3) who knows how many games into the season it will be before his nagging injuries show up.....keep your fingers crossed
.278/.375/.520/31/91/85

by Stony on Jan 26, 2006 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds on the Rise

I'm tired of everyone in the press saying that the Cards are looking down. My NBA team is the Spurs for about as long as I've been a Redbirds Rooter. I see a lot of similarities between the two franchises. If you buy into the system, you can and will be successful. Walt and Tony don't always make the obvious choice to us, but hey, it works consistently. With that in mind, here are Jimmy's stats for '06.

BA: .295
OBP: .387
SLUG: .570
HR: 28
RBI: 92
RUNS: 90
WALKS: 85

Golden Glove, All-Star, Key Cog to the WS title.

At least I never have to hear about the Red Sox and their stupid curse ever again.

by aprfool79 on Jan 26, 2006 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

jimmy ballgame

said it before and i'll say it again....one of my favorite things in this world is watching jimmy ballgame play centerfield for the greatest sports franchise in the history of sport. period. #15 in your scorebook, #1 in your hearts, projections for j-ballgame in '06....

ba: .290
obp: .375
slug: .565
hr: 34
rbi: 93
runs: 90
nl pennants: 1
world series rings: 1

by busch league on Jan 26, 2006 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here's pulling for no neaby cliffs

.270/.380/.540, 33 hr, 90 rbi, 90 runs. Great concept for the thread!

by lb3000 on Jan 26, 2006 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My guess

.280/.380/.475 with 38 HR, 94 RBI and 101 R

by Valatan on Jan 26, 2006 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Modest rebound

Based on the projected lineup, minimal time lost to injury by JED or Rolen, and reasonable obp by the top of the order, I guesstimate the following:

BA: .290
OBP: .400
SLG; .600
HR; 33
RUNS; 90
RBI; 100

I think this is an interesting idea. If these kinds of predictions continue to match the "experts", it will strengthen my skepticism of the more elaborate stats.

by oldbirdwatcher on Jan 26, 2006 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

my hunch

BA.271
OBP.389
SLG .568
HR-31
R-96
RBI-96

Play a Hard 9

by erik on Jan 26, 2006 12:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my educated guess

toss out whichever, but on further review.

.270
.376
.561
HR-36
R-80
RBI-89

Some think Jimmy's power is going down. But I think he will hit more homeruns this year then. Just in Busch stadium alone, he had 7 fly outs hit to the warning track.

I agree with Ryan, I think his runs could go down due to a weak lower part of the lineup, but if he hits second more often then not, they maybe be up or stay around the same due to Pujols.

Play a Hard 9

by erik on Jan 26, 2006 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My prediction for Jimmy

batting avg: .279
on-base pct: .383
slugging avg: .581
homers: 33
runs scored: 103
runs batted in: 84

Mostly similar to '03 and '05 in my opinion, with a few more RBIs and slightly fewer runs scored with the switch to cleanup.

by roebirds on Jan 26, 2006 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oops

I switched the runs scored and RBI totals above. Should be:
runs scored: 84
runs batted in: 103

Sorry! Couldn't figure out how to edit...

by roebirds on Jan 26, 2006 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

edmonds 2006

avg:.291
obp:.394
slg:.575
hr:30
rbi:103
run:92

I think Jimmy will be better than last year when he took a real hit with the loss of Rolen. His power may be somewhat higher or lower based on the new Busch, I would have guessed 34 homers at old Busch.

by bigcardsfan5 on Jan 26, 2006 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

One last go

avg: .299
obp: .402
slg: .588
hr: 31
rbi: 94
runs: 88

I think he's due for a drop off, but not for one, maybe two more years. I think whoever said that the fact that he's still playing CF at a very high level indicates he's not playing quite as old as some think was right on. I don't see him recovering to 2004 levels, but I'll think he'll get on one of his early season tears and ride that to what may be one last stellar season.

by punditmoi on Jan 26, 2006 2:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy v. 2006

AVG: .283
OBP: .405
SLG: .548
HR: 33
RBI: 96
Runs: 91

by MrCrowesGarden on Jan 26, 2006 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Helped by Rolen

I'll go with .275/.390/.500/25/90/80. I think he'll benefit from Rolen's protection... and I think TLR will rest him a little more with Encarnacion available for CF. That said, deeper alleys in the new park could mean more diving attempts. And that could mean more of the inevitable nicks.

by Matt on Jan 26, 2006 2:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

New ballpark is a wild card

Doubles up, HR down.

BA .272
OB .388
SL .543
HR 27
RB 91
R 88

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 26, 2006 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I love this!

Let's do the whole damn roster, lboros. It'll help us pass the time until pitchers and catchers report... My next candidate for this exercise, since people seem to have strong and varied opinions on this: Mark Mulder in 2006.

Jed in '06, assuming 450 ABs:

ba: .285
obp: .405
slug: .540
hr: 29
rbi: 98
runs: 88

I don't believe Jed's doomed to suffer his inevitable decline just yet - still has 1-2 solid seasons left in him. He's never getting back to the 2004 MVP-type #s; but I think he rebounds a good bit in 2006. All the injuries on the team last year, as well as hitting #2 a lot (per Hummingbird's recent analysis), hurt his 2005 #s. His age and the new park will keep his power #s down, but his good eye and hitting #4 w/Rolen healthy will help his avg, obp and rbis. I agree with everyone that the weaker 6-8 hitters hurt his run total.

by DCRedbird on Jan 26, 2006 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

comeback jimmy (sort of)

i project with my red-colored glasses firmly placed upon my nose . . .

.280/.372/.610 (more XBHs coming in those new busch power alleys), with 32 dingers, 100 rbi and 86 runs. it could happen . . .

by brentonjay on Jan 26, 2006 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting application.....

...of the concept explicated by James Surowiecki in his book "The Wisdom of Crowds." Quoting from the amazon page for the book, "If four basic conditions are met, a crowd's "collective intelligence" will produce better outcomes than a small group of experts, Surowiecki says, even if members of the crowd don't know all the facts or choose, individually, to act irrationally. "Wise crowds" need (1) diversity of opinion; (2) independence of members from one another; (3) decentralization; and (4) a good method for aggregating opinions. The diversity brings in different information; independence keeps people from being swayed by a single opinion leader; people's errors balance each other out; and including all opinions guarantees that the results are "smarter" than if a single expert had been in charge."

by Perry on Jan 26, 2006 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

rolen will help a little

.271/.397/.552 32 HR, 94 RBI, 91R

by chuckb on Jan 26, 2006 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

here you go

BA: .278
OBP: .387
SLG: .539
HR: 31
RBI: 99
Runs: 91

by montalban on Jan 26, 2006 5:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jimmy

batting avg: .278
on-base pct: .383
slugging avg: .533
homers: 27
runs scored: 80
runs batted in: 90

by 2ndprize on Jan 26, 2006 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy '06: <i>What decline??!!</i>

BA: .279
OBP: .390
SLG: .550
HR: 35
RS: 102
RBI: 110

Yeah, call me bullish on JEd.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Jan 26, 2006 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'll still take a decline phase Jimmy for

avg... .282
obp... .390
slg... .567
hr.... 32
rbi... 89
r.... 82

know many other CF's that hope to put up numbers like this in their GOOD years??? Decline or not, we are spoiled with one hell of a CF!

by azruavatar on Jan 26, 2006 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reds trying to make some noise?

http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060126/SPT05/601260312/1035/SPT

by herr28 on Jan 26, 2006 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jimmy cricket

Here's my baseless projection for Edmonds from a post of the same name:

BA: .298
OBP: .412
SLG: .497
HR: 22
R: 104
RBI: 87

My hunch is that Edmonds is fully in his decline phase. But he'll still be productive by taking more walks to get on in front of the younger hitters.

The 26th Man

by 26thMan on Jan 26, 2006 8:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy's Ho-Hum Year

Stats: .278/.388/.570/32/85/79

Dropping back into a familiar spot will help his consistency. Hopefully, it will be a consistent "good". I think his days of a .300 hitter are over though, but he'll put up solid numbers for us this year.

by poolplayer on Jan 26, 2006 8:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not done yet

.280/.395/.570/34/95/95

Roughly midway between 04 and 05. I note that many of his supposed comps are guys who peaked earlier in their careers than he did. Plenty of reasons to think last year was more aberration than sign of decline.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jan 26, 2006 9:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jed 06

Great stuff. looks like most are calling for a solid season. but plenty of doubts on injuries, and the question should also include number of games. I'll play the averages up a third between 05 and average of last four seasons, but I also think the deeper power alleys hurt jed both ways; fewer of his flys go over and fewer that he saves at the top of the fence. worse yet the extra dives will cost him more time on the DL. Not as bad as 05 walker or sanders, but less than 110 games so production is down. summary:

2006    jed
avg    0.271
obp    0.391
slg    0.552
hr    23
rbi    68
r    67
g    107

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Jan 26, 2006 9:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jed 06 cont'd

blogging via wifi from a spots bar, 27 tubes and no baseball, yet. meant to add that jed's fangraph plots look reasonably encouraging that the averages can be aproximately sustained. but the slits vs. righty project decline, and LD% also. not good trends. worse still if opposing managers are using fangraphs to counter the bird's advantage of charting by dunc.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Jan 26, 2006 9:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

project Jimmy

.281/.385/.560 /28 / 85R /95 RBI

Maybe not as good as we've gotten used to from #15, but I'll take them..

by Silent George on Jan 26, 2006 10:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy Jam

he loves the batters eye at the new stadium. (as soon as it is built)

ba .298
obp .395
slg .585
hr 30
rbi 91
r 87

"The good Lord was good to me. He gave me a strong body, a good right arm, and a weak mind." -Dizzy Dean

by vince eating tarp on Jan 26, 2006 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jim Edmonds Predictions...

ba .273
obp .389
slg .580
hr 33
rbi 107
r 84

The Cardinal Curmudgeon

by lawman3842 on Jan 26, 2006 11:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy Predictions...

Rolen is going to help Jimmy's numbers this year so long as Jim is hitting 4th and Scott stays healthy. Jimmy isnt suited to hit second. A full season hitting 4th in front of a healthy Rolen will go a long way....

ba .281
obp .405
slg .560
hr 37
rbi 109
r 90

by BigMac545 on Jan 27, 2006 1:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Numbers so far

I was curious and have time on my hands this morning at the office ... here are avg., obp, and slugging so far, through 58 comments (46 entries, counting only the 2nd of erik's submissions), rounding to the 3rd decimal:

avg. - .282
obp. - .389
slg. - .554

Hope this saves you some time, lboros...

by DCRedbird on Jan 27, 2006 7:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs