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rostermania IIa: more a.j.

it was a lot easier to construct multiple variations on a brian giles signing than has been to do likewise for an aj burnett signing. the addition of $5m or so to the starting-rotation budget takes all the "give" out of other portions of the roster. you can't anticipate the cards getting much cheaper in the everyday lineup than the $44 million postulated in yesterday's post, as the five players already under contract cost $38.5 million (and none is a realistic candidate to be moved), and the bench outlined yesterday exceeds the collective minimum salary by only about $700K. that leaves the bullpen, where the cardinals might save a few pennies with the right set of moves. in all of the giles scenarios and yesterday's burnett scenario, the bullpen is rebuilt at retail -- ie via veteran free-agent pickups. but jock might be able via trade to assemble young, cheap arms who are at least as good as the loopers, eyres, motas, et al of the free-agent market.

one rich source of such arms is toronto, which happens to be looking for starting pitching. justin speier (pronounced "just inspire") had his best season in 2005 --.198 average against, 2.57 era, 4:1 strikeout-walk ratio -- and over the last four years combined (276 innings) has an era of 3.51 and per-9 figures of 7.5 hits, 2.7 walks, 7.2 strikeouts. those are very good numbers in any circumstance, and considerable improvements over julian tavarez's aggregate numbers in cardinal red; when you consider that speier spent half of that four-year span toiling in coors field, he looks so much the better. speier is very tough on left-handers and has 17 career saves; he's in his walk year and owed $2.25 million. if toronto would sweeten the pot with a grade B prospect (and i don't know their system) i'd let them have marquis in exchange.

another, even cheaper blue jay arm is jason frasor, who saved 17 games in 19 opps as a rookie two years ago and followed up with a strong 2005. he stranded 40 of 46 inherited runners, leading the majors percentagewise, and ranked 30th on baseball prospectus' expected wins added chart -- two slots ahead of al reyes, and eight ahead of tavarez. he too is tough on left-handers, and he has a career strikeout rate of 7.3 per 9. speier looks like the better pitcher to me, but frasor served as toronto's primary setup guy last year and is much cheaper -- only made $330K last season and isn't arbitration eligible. their VORPs were similar -- 22.8 for speier, 17.9 for frasor (compare reyes at 23.3, tavarez at 12.1.)

here's another guy who might be available: the rangers' joaquin benoit. i've linked to his split-stats page, because his overall line isn't very impressive -- but the rangers, who need starting pitchers, have miscast this player as a starter and thereby messed up his stats. they finally gave it up last year and used him mainly in relief; he responded with some truly eye-popping numbers, viz a 1.30 era and a .139 batting avg against out of the pen. for his four-year career his relief era (135 innings) is 2.46, with per 9s of 6.0 hits, 3.4 walks, and 8.1 whiffs and a batting-avg against of .187. i have no idea what the rangers' plans for him are -- and to judge from my SB Nation colleague adam morris at Lone Star Ball (a pretty big benoit fan; go to his search page and type in benoit), the rangers have no idea either. they already have a closer (francisco cordero) and are desperate for starting pitching; as far as i'm concerned they can have him straight up for marquis, but if the rangers don't value him we might be able to get him for ray king or brad thompson; one never knows.

since we're only doing this for fun, let's say the cards can get both frasor and benoit for marquis, king, and adam wainwright. that a) improves the bullpen and b) shakes about $4 million free from the budget. what then?

BURNETT VARIATION #1: JACQUES

STARTING 8 BENCH ROTATION PEN
molina c
~$600K
taguchi of
$1m
carpenter rhp
$5m
is'hausen rhp
$8.5m
pujols 1b
$14m
luna if
$350K
mulder lhp
$7.5m
frasor rhp
$1m
grud'k 2b
$2.5m
rodriguez of
$320K
burnett rhp
$10m
benoit rhp
$500K
rolen 3b
$11m
nunez if
$900K
suppan rhp
$4m
eldred rhp
$750K
eckstein ss
$3.5m
stinnett c
$650k
an reyes rhp
$320K
flores lhp
~$500k
sanders lf
$3m
duncan 1b
Memphis
thompson rhp
$350K
edmonds cf
$9.5m
gall 1b-of
Memphis
ty johnson lhp
$320K
j jones rf
$5.5m
schumaker of
Memphis
cali lhp
Memphis
TOTAL
$49.5m
TOTAL
$3.2m
TOTAL
$27m
TOTAL
$12m
OVERALL PAYROLL: $91.7m

under a scenario like this one, i could imagine the organization bringing jose mesa into camp as an insurance policy, either in addition to or instead of eldred; he's a terrible player and all that, but you know how these things work (veteran, proven record, blah blah blah). i'm not suggesting i favor this type of acquisition; i'm acknowledging that it might make a cautious organization like ours slightly more comfortable with the risks of having a young and "unproven" setup corps. at his age and level of performance, i doubt the guy goes for more than a million bucks on the market; then at midseason we dump him on some wild-card "contender" for an A-ball batboy prospect.

i'm making numerous wild assumptions in this scenario, but let it serve as a template rather than a specific prescription; maybe instead of frasor and benoit it's two other young, inexpensive hard throwers whose names i haven't come across. the point is this: the cardinals don't have to go out and spend $6 million to rebuild their setup corps. it may be possible for them to get both better and cheaper there, direct the saved money into a corner outfield slot, and go after the premier starting pitcher on the free-agent market. don't forget, the white sox just won a world title with a bullpen comprising one "reliable veteran" (hermanson) and a bunch of career scufflers -- bobby jenks, neal cotts, cliff politte, luis vizcaino. given the quality of the cards' rotation as projected here, and isringhausen's more or less steady presence at the back end of the 'pen, i wouldn't think this approach leaves the team at great risk of a 2003-like bullpen meltdown.

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Ray King
The P-D today says that King and Walt made nice - Ray wants to stay (and will drop lbs. in the offseason), Walt is not trading him.

Fluff or reality, maybe we need to start including the Burger back into these scenarios?

by sdelek on Nov 9, 2005 9:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

that's too bad
nothing at all against ray, but i think the $2.5 mill they're paying him could generate more marginal value elsewhere. just my opinion

by lboros on Nov 9, 2005 11:44 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

King or no
King, I like these ideas, LB. Especially Speier. And those kind of guys are right up Walt's alley (paying less for more) as well.  

by rockin redbird on Nov 9, 2005 9:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wilkerson,
just read that Brad Wilkerson is being shopped around.  How about trading Marquis for him to play either corner?  

by Brock20 on Nov 9, 2005 11:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

interesting idea
wilkerson had a mysteriously bad year. the move to rfk stadium seems to have hurt him, but his home/away split wasn't that dramatic --- he actually had a slightly higher ops away from home, thanks to a much higher walk rate. what else might account for the loss of such power? hmmm . . . . . makes you wonder if vials and needles were involved.

but maybe not.

even in a pretty bad year he had a decent obp (.351) and 60 extra-base hits; he can play centerfield, is only 28 years old. if his obp returns to career norms he'd be an outstanding #2 hitter behind eckstein. he's arbitration-eligible and might command $4-$5 million; they could put him at one corner and sanders at the other:

eck'n
wilk'n
pu
jed
scot
regg
grud
molina

and still have $$$ left over for bullpen and/or a decent starting pitcher.

sounds pretty good to me; i'll throw it into the roster matrix in the near soon

by lboros on Nov 9, 2005 11:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think
Robinson really moved Wilkerson around in the line up ALOT. He hit first, second, third and fourth throughout the season. He had a really hot start too, when he was mostly at leadoff. I don't always understand why that hurts a guy, but it certainly has messed with other players a bit.

In 04, Wilke hit lead off almost all year, not the prototypical lead off guy, but they didn't have much to work with.

I agree that he might be a darn good pick up for non-superstar $$$. Seems like a guy that could reap some benefit from a change of pace...and I won't have to see his mug on EVERY bloody large ad in the subway!

by VanRam on Nov 9, 2005 12:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wikerson...
CF definately.  Plays some first. Also, I believe he played either left or right as well. So, that's four positions that he can play.  Steals a few bases also.  

I like the Tony Armas project.  Before he got hurt, he had a couple of good years.  If he could be had for an incentive ladden contract then so be it.  

by Brock20 on Nov 9, 2005 2:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the more
i think about it, i like the idea of wilkerson even more. Hell, for Marquis and...King? (draw the line at Reyes). Young, got some talent, kind of puts the Mench thing in perspective huh?

by VanRam on Nov 9, 2005 6:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention
that having such a dominant rotation will make for a sharper 'pen just from reducing the number of innings relievers will have to throw--if the starters go 7 a game, that means that the relievers only have to throw 2.

by Valatan on Nov 9, 2005 11:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I've always followed
Wilkerson... my brother and I played against him in high school. He grew up in Western Kentucky... and would probably welcome a move closer to home similar to Rolen and Andy Benes.
I also think part of his falloff this year was due to a lack of any other potent hitters in the lineup.

by Matt on Nov 9, 2005 12:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

SANDERS COMMANDING 2 YEARS @ $5 MILLION PER YEAR??
THAT'S WHAT SERIES THREE OF THE FREE AGENT PREVIEW SAYS...

AT THAT PRICE AND COMMITMENT FOR 100 GAMES A YEAR, NO THANKS....

I'D RATHER SEE JONES/WILKERSON, ETC...

IN A CONVERSATION ON PRIMER, MGL MADE A GOOD POINT, OUR OFFENSE WAS STILL VERY PRODUCTIVE EVEN WITH LIMITED PRODUCTION FROM SANDERS, WALKER, AND ROLEN...

FILL IN THE SANDERS AND WALKER HOLES WITH LEAGUE AVERAGE PRODUCTION AND GOOD DEFENSE, COMBINE IT WITH A HEALTHY YEAR OF ROLEN AND WE MIGHT ACTUALLY GET BETTER!!!

MGL'S COMMENTS ARE ONE OF THE REASONS I LIKE THE BURNETT SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH I THINK WE'D GET MORE VALUE AND MILEAGE OUT OF PAUL BYRD...

by TOLAXOR on Nov 9, 2005 2:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

ABREU / BURRELL
ROSENTHALL (SO TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, SAYS THAT THE PHILS ARE WILLING TO TRADE OF FOR PITCHING...

SIGN BYRD, TRADE WAINWRIGHT, MARQUIS AND KING FOR BOBBY OR PAT THE BAT???

I LIKE TOE-KNEE-ARM-ASS JUNIOR PROJECT, TOO - ESP. IF WE HAD TO DEAL SUPPAN FOR THE RIGHT OF TALENT...

by TOLAXOR on Nov 9, 2005 2:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wilkerson...
would be a very nice fit in  the Lou, I believe. And if Philly really is looking to shop Abreu(yeah, right), well, I won't go there because it's just ridiculous.

by cardsrul on Nov 9, 2005 4:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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