So much, I guess, for last week's excited Kyle Lohse rumors: It turns out that the St. Louis Cardinals refugee isn't looking for one-year make-good contracts after all. In fact, according to a tweet from Ken Rosenthal on Monday, Scott Boras is still starting negotiations at "3 yrs with a 'big' AAV." Which puts us about where we were in December, when we first realized that Kyle Lohse might not get the kind of long-term contract he was hoping for.
One thing I can safely say right now: If Lohse ends up with a contract in that range, the prevailing narrative about the new free agency mechanics—that the qualifying offer and the draft-pick penalty are killing players like Kyle Lohse—is going to require some retooling. A pitcher in his mid-thirties with an FIP around four over the last two years and some impressive ERAs should be looking at a three-year contract, or thereabouts.
But it is March, and we still don't have a good idea of where Kyle Lohse will end up, whether that's despite or because of Scott Boras's heroic ability to delay gratification. That's fairly uncommon, even if it is the second time in five years it's happened to Kyle Lohse.